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St. Louis Real Estate Search

 

Is There a Connection Between St Louis Population Shift and Home Prices?

Yesterday, I did an article about the population shift in St Louis in which I included data showing the the city of St Louis has lost population every year for the past six years (the period covered in my article) while St Charles County and Jefferson County experienced population growth every year during the period.  So, today, I decided to see what has happened with regard to home values in these counties and whether anything value-wise seems tied to the population shift.

Below is a 10-year chart, showing the median price per foot (one of the most accurate ways to look at home prices) for each of the 5-counties that make up the St Louis core-market.  As the chart reveals, there doesn’t necessarily seem to be any correlation between home appreciation and population shift.  Below is a quick analysis:

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  • City of St Louis- Had the largest population loss from 2010-2016 and saw home prices increase 15.15% during the period from $99 per square foot in 2010 to $114 per square foot in 2016
  • St Charles County – Had the largest population increase from 2010-2016 and saw home prices increase 13.88% during the period from $108 per square foot in 2010 to $123 per square foot in 2016
  • St Louis County – Stayed fairly flat population-wise, with a small loss from 2010-2016 and saw home prices increase 14.66% during the period from $116 per square foot in 2010 to $133 per square foot in 2016
  • Jefferson County – Had the second-largest population increase from 2010-2016 and saw home prices increase 10.23% during the period from $107 per square foot in 2010 to $118 per square foot in 2016
  • Franklin County – Had the third largest population increase from 2010-2016 and saw home prices increase 10.20% during the period from $98 per square foot in 2010 to $108 per square foot in 2016

So, based upon the data above, and on our chart below, I think it’s hard to draw any relationship between population change and home prices.  The city of St Louis had the largest loss in population and biggest gain in home prices.  From that we could deduce that the higher prices in the city of St Louis forced home buyers to more affordable markets but that theory doesn’t hold water since St Charles County, the big winner in population shift, saw home prices increase just slightly less than the city of St Louis.

 St Louis County Core Market Median Home Price Per Foot by County- Past 10 Years

(Click on chart for live, interactive chart)
St Louis County Core Market Median Home Price Per Foot by County- Past 10 Years

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