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Home Prices Flat in May After Three Straight Months of Increases, as Foreclosure Prices Decline

Trulia today released the latest findings from the Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor, the earliest leading indicators available of trends in home prices and rents. Based on the for-sale homes and rentalslisted on Trulia, these monitors take into account changes in the mix of listed homes and reflect trends in prices and rents for similar homes in similar neighborhoods through May 31, 2012.

Asking Prices Flat in May, Ending Three Months of Increases
Asking prices on for-sale homes — which lead sales prices by approximately two or more months — were unchanged in May month-over-month, seasonally adjusted. Together with increases in April and March, asking prices in May rose nationally 1.6 percent quarter over quarter (Q-o-Q), seasonally adjusted. The price increase unadjusted for seasonality was even higher: 5.2 percent Q-o-Q, since prices typically jump in springtime. Year over year (Y-o-Y) asking prices fell slightly by 0.2 percent. Nationally, 41 out of the 100 largest metros had Y-o-Y price increases, and 86 out of the 100 largest metros had Q-o-Q price increases, seasonally adjusted.

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                    May 2012 Trulia Price Monitor Summary                   
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                                       # of 100 largest   % change in asking
                      % change in    metros with asking-  prices, excluding 
                     asking prices     price increases       foreclosures   
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Month-over-month,                                                           
 seasonally                                                                 
 adjusted                 0.0%          (not reported)           0.4%       
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Quarter-over-                                                               
 quarter,                                                                   
 seasonally                                                                 
 adjusted                 1.6%                86                 2.1%       
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Year-over-year           -0.2%                41                 1.0%       
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Several metros saw prices turn around this quarter. Prices in Seattle, for instance, rose 4.4 percent Q-o-Q, seasonally adjusted, in May after falling 12.5 percent Y-o-Y in the previous twelve months. In Orlando, however, prices fell 0.5 percent Q-o-Q, seasonally adjusted, in May after increasing 5.9 percent Y-o-Y in the previous twelve months.

 

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                          Top "Turnaround" Metros                          
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Metros turning UP most                Metros turning DOWN most             
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Cleveland, OH                         Fort Lauderdale, FL                  
Las Vegas, NV                         Fort Worth, TX                       
Milwaukee, WI                         Greenville, SC                       
Seattle, WA                           Orlando, FL                          
Tacoma, WA                                                                 
Toledo, OH                                                                 
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Note: “Turnaround” metros are those with largest percentage change from decrease to increase (first column) or increase to decrease (second column), comparing recent Q-o-Q (Feb-May 2012) with previous Y-o-Y (Feb 2011-Feb 2012). Metros listed in alphabetical order.

Declines in Foreclosure Prices Cancelled Out Gains in Non-Foreclosure Prices
Whereas asking prices overall fell 0.2 percent Y-o-Y, asking prices excluding foreclosures rose 1.0 percent Y-o-Y. (Unless otherwise specified, the Trulia Price Monitor includes asking prices on REO-stage foreclosed homes.) Foreclosure prices fell 5.8 percent Y-o-Y. In hard-hit Las Vegas, Atlanta and Sacramento, asking prices excluding foreclosures rose Y-o-Y, even though prices declined Y-o-Y when foreclosures were included. In these metros, foreclosure listings account for about half of the homes listed on Trulia. In contrast, foreclosure listings account for fewer than 5 percent of homes listed on T rulia in New York, Newark and Baltimore.

Rent Increases Accelerate to 6 Percent Nationally
In May, rents were 6.0 percent higher than they were a year ago, up from the 5.4 percent Y-o-Y rent increase in April, and 4.8 percent in March.(1) In San Francisco, rents rose 14.4 percent Y-o-Y in May; Oakland, Miami, and Denver rents are also up over 10 percent Y-o-Y. Of the 25 largest rental markets in the U.S., only in Las Vegas did rents decline Y-o-Y.

 

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             Where Rents Rose Most Among Largest Rental Markets             
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                                          Y-o-Y % Change in Asking Rent, May
   #   U.S. Metro                         2012                              
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1      San Francisco, CA                  14.4%                             
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2      Oakland, CA                        11.4%                             
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3      Miami, FL                          11.3%                             
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4      Denver, CO                         10.5%                             
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5      Boston, MA                         9.8%                              
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6      Seattle, WA                        9.6%                              
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7      Houston, TX                        9.2%                              
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8      Portland, OR-WA                    6.8%                              
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9      Chicago, IL                        6.4%                              
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10     New York, NY-NJ                    5.9%                              
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