Current Housing Market Bust Worse Than Depression? I Don’t Think So..

The headline today on a CNBC article was “US Housing Crisis is Now Worse than Great Depression” and there are many similar articles in other publications as well…in fact, if you Google “Housing Crisis Worse Than Great Depression” there are over 100 exact matches just in the past month. The writer’s all seem to be hanging onto one stat that came out of the Case-Shiller home price index reports, that being that the “peak to trough” decline in home prices during this housing recession has hit 33 percent, which exceeds the 31 percent decline during the Great Depression. But wait, there’s a LOT MORE to look at… Continue reading “Current Housing Market Bust Worse Than Depression? I Don’t Think So..

International survey shows 62 percent of Americans think now is a good time to buy a home; highest in survey

The results of a survey conducted in eight countries for Genworth Financial was released today and contains some interesting findings. The survey was conducted on existing home-owners as well as people that said they were potential first-time home-buyers in eight countries; U.S., U.K., Ireland, Italy, Australia, Mexico, Canada and India. Continue reading “International survey shows 62 percent of Americans think now is a good time to buy a home; highest in survey

New home sales and prices increase in April; still down over 23 percent from a year ago

Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Census Bureau released new home sales data for April 2011 showing an increase of 7.3 percent from the month before, and a decrease of 23.1 percent from a year ago.

The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for April was 323,000 homes. The supply of new homes on the market decreased from an adjusted 7.2 month supply the month before to a 6.5 month supply in April. The median new home price increased for the month to $217,900, a 1.6 percent increase from a revised median price of $214,500 the month before and an increase of 4.6 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “New home sales and prices increase in April; still down over 23 percent from a year ago

St. Louis County Assessor offers tax relief to tornado victims

Within days of former State Representative Jake Zimmerman stepping into his new role as the first elected Assessor for St. Louis County, he has jumped into action.  In an effort to reach out and provide help to property owners whose property was affected by last weeks devastating tornado, Zimmerman plans to use authority given to him under State Statutes to reduce the value of the damaged property, thereby reducing the tax burden on the owners. Continue reading “St. Louis County Assessor offers tax relief to tornado victims

New home sales and prices increase in March

Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Census Bureau released new home sales data for March 2011 showing an increase of 11.1 percent from the month before, and a decrease of 21.9 percent from a year ago.

The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for March was 300,000 homes. The supply of new homes on the market decreased from an adjusted 8.2 month supply the month before to a 7.3 month supply in March. The median new home price increased for the month to $213,800, a 2.9 percent increase from a revised median price of $207,700 the month before and a decrease of 4.9 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “New home sales and prices increase in March

St. Louis Home Prices Decreased In February; Non-Distressed Sale Prices Stabilizing

According to a report released this morning by CoreLogic, St. Louis home prices (including distressed sales) declined by 8.29 percent in February 2011 from the year before.  The prior month showed home prices had declined 7.24 percent from the year before, so the bad news is this shows home prices are continuing to trend downward.  The good news is, if you remove the distressed sales from the mix then St. Louis home prices in February only declined by 1.07 percent from the year before and in the month before declined by 2.38 percent from the year before showing that home price decline for home prices on “normal” St Louis home sales is slowing and prices are moving toward stabilization.

Unfortunately distressed sales are not going away any time soon so they will continue to put downward pressure on St Louis home prices however we are beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

St. Louis Market at a Glance; The economy, people, real estate

HUD publishes “Market at a Glance” reports which give a great overview of the economic conditions, population information as well as real estate and housing information for a given area. I have generated the most recent report for the St. Louis metro area showing St. Louis area market conditions on dynamic charts.

Highlights:

  • St. Louis unemployment is declining slightly after peaking last spring.
  • St. Louis area jobs are increasing slightly after dipping to a low last spring.
  • Over the past couple of years more people have moved out of our area than in to our area.
  • Home building activity is at nearly an all time low, multi-family construction ticked upward in 2010.

To see all the charts and complete information click here or on the chart below.



St. Louis County Assessor Shows Property Values Dropped 5.26 Percent in past two years

The St. Louis County Assessor today released the preliminary real property values as a result of this being a reassessment year. Pursuant to state law, the assessor is to look at what the fair market value of real property was on January 1, 2011 and then use this as the value for property tax purposes for the coming two years.
Continue reading “St. Louis County Assessor Shows Property Values Dropped 5.26 Percent in past two years

Survey shows Americans gaining confidence in stability of home prices

Dennis Norman St LouisThe Fannie Mae Fourth Quarter National Housing Survey polled homeowners and renters alike to assess their confidence in homeownership as an investment as well as their views on housing finance and the overall economy. The survey revealed that Americans are more confident about the stability of home prices than they were at the beginning of 2010, although they aren’t so confident about the strength of the overall US economy. Continue reading “Survey shows Americans gaining confidence in stability of home prices

2010 Census data disappointing for St. Louis; what is effect on the St. Louis Real Estate market?

It’s hard to miss the fact that the US Census Bureau just released some of the results of the 2010 census for our area.  It’s been all over the media about St. Charles County’s population surpassing the City of St. Louis and moving it into the spot of the third largest county in the State.

Being the data junkie I’ve become I decided to tear into the numbers and see how the 2010 data compared with the 2000 data to see what changes have taken place in the last decade and see what I could glean from the data to perhaps get a little insight on the impact of these changes on the St. Louis real estate market.  Also, since I have been somewhat of a contrarian in saying the that reports of low housing starts is a good thing as I don’t think we need to add housing units in this market, I thought it would make sense to see if my theory holds water. Continue reading “2010 Census data disappointing for St. Louis; what is effect on the St. Louis Real Estate market?

First-Time home buyers prefer ‘move-in-ready’ home

According to a survey from Coldwell Banker Real Estate, 87 percent of first-time home buyers want to buy a “move-in-ready” home. First-time buyers have indicated they want to buy a home that is affordable, but they are not looking for the “fixer-uppers” as much as past buyers may have been. Continue reading “First-Time home buyers prefer ‘move-in-ready’ home

New home sales close out 2010 on the rise; predicting increased sales in 2011

Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Census Bureau released new home sales data for December 2010 showing an increase of 17.5 percent from the month before, but a decrease of 7.6 percent from a year ago.

The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for December was 329,000 homes, a 17.5 percent increase from November’s revised rate of 280,000 homes. The supply of new homes on the market decreased from an adjusted 8.4 month supply in November to a 6.9 month supply in December. The median new home price increased for the month to $241,500 whopping 12.0 percent increase from $215,500 the month before and an increase of 8.5 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “New home sales close out 2010 on the rise; predicting increased sales in 2011

Foreclosures on the rise in December; Mortgage delinquences decline though

A “first-look” report issued by Lender Processing Services, one of the countries largest loan servicers and aggregators of loan performance data, is somewhat encouraging as it shows the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (not including foreclosures) for December was 8.83 percent which is a decrease of 2.1 percent from November’s rate of 9.02 percent. Continue reading “Foreclosures on the rise in December; Mortgage delinquences decline though

Tips to Avoid Appraisal Problems

Dennis Norman St LouisYou finally reach a deal with a buyer to sell your house, or strike a deal with the seller of your dream home, only to see the deal fall apart later when the house doesn’t appraise for the price that has been agreed upon…what are you to do? This is a plight that has become all too common today for many buyers and sellers. Why? Several reasons….appraisers have, after being blamed by many for causing or contributing to the downfall of the housing market, understandably so become cautious and somewhat conservative when putting a value on a home today. Not to mention, since about a third of the home sales are distressed sales and prices are still falling somewhat in many markets, the “value” of a home is a moving target.

What can home sellers and buyers do to avoid appraisal problems? Continue reading “Tips to Avoid Appraisal Problems

Where is the real estate market headed in 2011?

Dennis Norman St LouisThe real estate market has not been very nice to us over the past 3 years or so and we are all anxious to see the light at the end of the tunnel. With that in mind, and 2011 in front of us, where is the real estate market headed in 2011? Before I take my humble stab at answering this question I need to remind you I am not an economist nor do I have a PhD behind my name, in fact I have nothing behind my name. All I can offer is a whole lot of experience “in the trenches“….as a broker, investor, developer…. Continue reading “Where is the real estate market headed in 2011?

Has The Rate of Home Ownership Dropped to an All-Time Low?

Dennis Norman St LouisAs 2010 quickly comes to an end I sat here early this morning pondering the real estate market and reading reports on the housing industry. One thing that caught my attention was an article titled “The Mortgage Interest Deduction and Negative Equity” by Ted Gayer, the co-director of economic studies at the Brookings Institute (and occasional contributor to this blog). Ted’s article made some interesting points related to the mortgage interest deduction, negative equity and home-ownership rates in the U.S.

In his article Ted states “It seems semantically incorrect to call someone who owes more on an asset than it’s worth an “owner.”” This is a point that others have made as well and I think makes a good point. With this in mind, and in the mood to do some research and create some charts, I decided to dig into the topic deeper. Continue reading “Has The Rate of Home Ownership Dropped to an All-Time Low?

Existing home sales increase in November; Down almost 28 percent from a year ago

Dennis Norman
Today’s existing home sales report from theNational Association of REALTORS(R) shows existing home sales in November were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.68 million units which is an increase of 5.6 percent from October and is a decline of 27.9 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “Existing home sales increase in November; Down almost 28 percent from a year ago

Study shows immigrants could be key to future housing market

Great Desire to Own a Home by Growing Ethnic and Immigrant Populations Could Drive Future of the Housing Market

Dennis Norman St LouisFannie Mae just released a report which included a study on “Renting and Owning Behaviors by Race, Ethnicity, and Immigration Status and Economics of Owning and Renting Through the Cycle and Across Geographies” in which was shown that “all racial and ethnic groups polled, as well as immigrants, strongly aspire to own a home, despite current disparities in homeownership rates for these groups.Continue reading “Study shows immigrants could be key to future housing market

2011 Real Estate Market Expected to Show Some Improvement

Dennis Norman St LouisAh, it is so much fun to be able to write something positive about the real estate market!

According to an economic outlook report just issued by Fannie Mae, our country’s economy should “kick into higher gear” by the second quarter of 2011. This positive outlook is the result of improvements in consumer spending, consumer confidence, increased demand for goods and services and falling unemployment claims.

For 2011, Fannie Mae, in their December 2010 forecast, is forecasting growth of 3.4 percent which is an improvement from the 2.9 percent growth in 2011 they previously forecast. The big caveat is that this assumes “improving labor market conditions.” What this means for the real estate market, more specifically the housing market, is “despite rising mortgage rates, our (Fannie Mae) forecast for home sales is stronger than the previous forecast, given our brighter economic growth and labor market outlook,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. Mr. Duncan goes on to say that his expectation of increased home sales is due in part to “modest additional declines in home prices” making homes even more affordable and tempting buyers as their”employment and income outlook brightens.”

After the rather sad housing market in 2010 saying 2011 will improve probably isn’t saying a whole lot (sort of like celebrating on January 2nd that you have been able to stick to your new years resolution all year thus far) but hey, it’s a start and at least things are being forecast to go the right direction! Baby steps……

Foreclosures on the rise in November however mortgage delinquences decline

A “first-look” report issued by Lender Processing Services, one of the countries largest loan servicers and aggregators of loan performance data, is somewhat encouraging as it shows the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (not including foreclosures) for October was 9.02 percent which is a decrease of almost 3 percent from October’s rate of 9.29 percent. Continue reading “Foreclosures on the rise in November however mortgage delinquences decline

Cash-In Refis; St. Louis Mortgage Rate Update

Paramount Mortgage Company - St LouisCASH-IN REFIS…

Over the past years, many of Americans pulled money out their homes through “cash-out” refis.  Today, many of my clients are bringing cash into their refinance transactions.  Money is flowing in the opposite direction. Continue reading “Cash-In Refis; St. Louis Mortgage Rate Update

Survey Results are in – Sixty One percent think a home is a good investment

Dennis Norman St LouisFor those that frequent this site you have probably noticed (and perhaps even participated in) an informal survey we were running on the site. For about the past four months we have asked the question: “Is a home a good
long-term investment?”
and the results are in:

  • 61 percent of the respondents said Yes
  • 39 percent of the respondents said No

So there you have it….In spite of the real estate recession, which has been with us for too long now, about 3 out of 5 people still look at a home as a good long-term investment.

For what it’s worth, I agree.

October New Home Construction: Permits Up, Starts Down

New construction dn-3

The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for October 2010 showing a slight increase in single-family home building permits and a small decrease in new home starts compared to the month before. Continue reading “October New Home Construction: Permits Up, Starts Down

Initial report shows mortgage delinquencies leveled off in October; foreclosure inventory increased

A “first-look” report issued by Lender Processing Services, one of the countries largest loan servicers and aggregators of loan performance data, is somewhat encouraging as it shows the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (not including foreclosures) for October was 9.29 percent and, while that is a terribly high rate, it is just barely higher than Septembers’ rate of 9.27 percent. Mortgage delinquencies are a “leading indicator” of foreclosures, so perhaps that means we are getting close to the foreclosure activity leveling off. Continue reading “Initial report shows mortgage delinquencies leveled off in October; foreclosure inventory increased

Fed Reserve expects over 4 million new foreclosures in the next two years

Dennis Norman St Louis

Speaking at the National Consumer Law Center’s Consumer Rights Litigation Conference in Boston, Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin delivered some sobering news about the Fed Reserve’s expectations for the housing market.

Raskin discussed how foreclosures on residential properties soared from about one million in 2006, the “peak of the boom”, to 2.8 million last year. There were 1.2 million foreclosure filings in just the first half of 2010 and, right now, nearly five million loans are somewhere in the foreclosure process or are 90 days or more past due.

Raskin said “our projections remain very grim for the foreseeable future: All told, we expect about two and one-quarter million foreclosure filings this year and again next year, and about two million more in 2012. While these numbers are down from their peak in 2009, they remain extremely high by historical standards and represent a trauma in the lives of millions of people affected.”

New Incentives for Buyers of Fannie Mae Foreclosures; Over 700 Homes Available in St. Louis

Dennis Norman

Fannie Mae is offering 3.5 percent in closing cost assistance and a $1,500 bonus to buyers’ real estate agent or broker for people purchasing a Fannie Mae-owned HomePath® property.

Fannie Mae is trying to entice buyers to buy one of their Continue reading “New Incentives for Buyers of Fannie Mae Foreclosures; Over 700 Homes Available in St. Louis