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 Dennis Norman The St. Louis foreclosure rate in February was 1.78 percent, an increase of over 26 percent from a year ago, and just a slight decrease from January’s rate of 1.79 percent, according to a report published by CoreLogic. On a positive note, the report shows that the St. Louis Mortgage Delinquency rate (Serious delinquency, 90+ days delinquent) decreased slightly to 5.09 percent in February from 5.16 percent the month before and down over 13 percent from a year ago.
Unfortunately distressed sales are not going away any time soon so they will continue to put downward pressure on St Louis home prices however we are beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Dennis Norman The St. Louis foreclosure rate increased 1.7 percent in January to 1.79 percent, according to a report published by CoreLogic. On a positive note, the report shows that the rate of serious mortgage delinquencies in St. Louis (90+ days delinquent) decreased slightly to 5.14 percent in December from 5.18 percent the month before. Continue reading “St. Louis Foreclosure Rates Increase for Fourth-Consecutive Month“
A report released this morning by CoreLogic shows that the current residential “shadow” inventory as of January 2011 declined to 1.8 million units, down slightly from 2.0 million units a year ago. This current shadow inventory represents a 9 month supply, same as the suply a year ago. Continue reading “Shadow Inventory Drops Slightly but still at Nine-Month Supply“ Dennis Norman The St. Louis foreclosure rate increased 4.8 percent in December to 1.76 percent, according to a report published by CoreLogic. On a positive note, the report shows that the rate of serious mortgage delinquencies in St. Louis (90+ days delinquent) decreased slightly to 5.14 percent in December from 5.18 percent the month before. Continue reading “St. Louis Foreclosure Rates Increase for Third-Consecutive Month“
A report released this morning by CoreLogic shows home prices in the U.S. declined in January by 5.7 percent from the year before, marking the sixth-consecutive month year-over-year home prices have dropped, according to their index. The January data shows home prices continuing to slide. Mark Fleming, chief economist with CoreLogic, said, “A number of factors continue to dampen any recovery in the housing market. Negative equity, which limits the mobility of homeowners, weak demand and the overhang of shadow inventory all continue to exert downward pressure on housing prices. We are looking out for renewed demand in the coming months as the spring buying season gets underway to hopefully reduce the downward pressure.” Continue reading “Home Price Index Shows Year-Over-Year Decline for Sixth Straight Month“
A report released this morning by CoreLogic shows negative equity, after decreasing for the three prior quarters, increased in the fourth quarter of 2010 for residential properties. The CoreLogic reports that 11.1 million, or 23.1 percent, of all residential properties with mortgages were in negative equity at the end of the fourth quarter of 2010, up from 10.8 million and 22.5 percent in the prior quarter. Continue reading “Number of Homeowners Underwater on Mortgage Increases“
Continue reading “New report shows home sales may be worse than reported“
St. Louis home prices fell by 8.74 percent in December 2010 compared with December 2009, a decline of over 60 percent higher than the national home price decline. Home prices for the state of Missouri fell 8.82 percent during the period, slightly higher than St. Louis and high enough to put Missouri at number 5 in the country for home price declines for the period. Ugh.. Dennis Norman The St. Louis foreclosure rate shot up 7 percent in November to 1.67 percent, according to a report published by CoreLogic. The report also shows that the rate of serious mortgage delinquencies in St. Louis (90+ days delinquent) increase slightly to 5.18 percent in November from 5.17 percent the month before. Continue reading “St. Louis Foreclosures and Delinquencies on the rise in November“
A report released by CoreLogic showed that the St. Louis foreclosure rate increased in October marking the fourth-consecutive month of increases. The report shows St. Louis to have a foreclosure rate in October of 1.58 percent, a slight increase from September’s 1.57 percent, however an increase of over 11 percent from a year ago. The foreclosure rate in the U.S. in October was 3.33 percent, an increase of 14 percent from the year before. Continue reading “St. Louis Foreclosure Rates Increase for Forth Consecutive Month“
A report released by CoreLogic showed the St. Louis metro area to have a foreclosure rate in September of 1.57 percent, and increase of over 25 percent (25.6%) from a year ago, and an increase of a little over 3 percent from the month before. The national foreclosure rate in September was 3.29 percent, a slight increase from 3.20 percent the month before. Continue reading “St Louis Foreclosure rate up 25 percent from a year ago“
 Dennis Norman A report released by CoreLogic showed the St. Louis metro area to have a foreclosure rate in August of 1.52 percent which is a slight increase from July’s rate of 1.48 percent but is an increase of 25.6 percent from the year prior when the rate was 1.21 percent. Comparatively speaking, St. Louis is in good shape as the national foreclosure rate for August was 3.2 percent, almost double our rate here. Continue reading “St Louis Foreclosure rate up over 25 percent from year ago“ Dennis Norman A report released by CoreLogic showed the St. Louis metro area to have a foreclosure rate in July of 1.48 percent up slightly from June’s rate of 1.43 percent and an increase of 27.6 percent from the year prior when the rate was 1.16 percent. Continue reading “St. Louis foreclosures on the rise in July“  Dennis Norman A report by CoreLogic shows that in June 2010 almost one in five (19.3 percent) of the home sales in St. Louis are distressed home sales, such as foreclosure or a short sale. The report cautions that recent data showing improvements in negative equity, serious mortgage delinquency and a decrease in market share of short-sales, has been distorted as a result of the short-term boost in the “non-distressed” housing market by the homebuyer tax credit program, which recently ended. Continue reading “One in five St Louis home sales are distressed sales; more ‘distress coming’“ Dennis Norman After a couple of days of writing about bad reports on the housing market (existing home sales and new home sales to name two) I’m excited that I actually get to write something today that is positive! According to newly released data from CoreLogic, the percentage of homeowners in the U.S. with negative equity in their homes declined slightly at the end of the second quarter of 2010 making it the second consecutive month of declines. According to the CoreLogic report, 11 million, or 23 percent, of all residential properties with mortgages were in negative equity at the end of the second quarter of 2010, down from 11.2 million and 24 percent from the first quarter of 2010. Unfortunately as much I would like to say this was from home price appreciation, unfortunately it appears to have been driven primarily by foreclosures removing some of the homes with negative equity from the scene. Continue reading “Homeowners with negative equity declines for second consecutive quarter“
Dennis Norman According to a report issued today by CoreLogic, home prices in St. Louis increased in June by 1.4 percent over June 2009. This ends the four-month streak of increasing year-over-year home prices which for May was 3.49 percent. Continue reading “St Louis Home Prices Increase in June; Rate of increase slows“ Dennis Norman A report just released by CoreLogic estimate the financial impact of short-sale fraud to be $310 million annually. It is estimated there is fraud in one in every 53 short sale transactions resulting in an unnecessary loss to the lender of $41,000 per transaction on average. Continue reading “Report Shows Fraud in Short-Sales Cost Lenders $310 Million Annually“ Dennis Norman Report looks at impact of the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil spill on Florida Coastal home values According to a report released this morning by CoreLogic the impact of the BP DeepWater Horizon oil spill on home values in the coastal area’s along the Gulf coast is expected to range from $648 million over one year to as much as $3 billion over five years. This estimate is for the communities that are already impacted by the spill, if the unlikely worst-case scenario occurs and the spill reaches down to the area of the Florida Keys and up the Florida Atlantic coast then additional losses could reach up to $28 billion over five years according to the report. Continue reading “Gulf Oil spill could cost coastal homeowners up to $3 Billion in home values“ Dennis Norman A report released by CoreLogic showed the St. Louis metro area to have a foreclosure rate in June of 1.48 percent up slightly from May’s rate of 1.46 percent and an increase of 28.7 percent from the year prior when the rate was 1.15 percent. Continue reading “St. Louis Foreclosures Increase in June“ Dennis Norman Missouri one of 32 States Identified as “Low” risk of mortgage fraud According to the 2010 Mortgage Fraud Trends Report released by CoreLogic this week, fraud risk in the mortgage industry has declined by 25 percent since it peaked in the third quarter of 2007. Even though the trend is down it is still estimated that there were $14 billion in fraud losses experienced in 2009 alone. CoreLogics’ fraud index can drill down to show states, cities and even streets that have the highest mortgage fraud risk. Highlights of the report:
How about that? They can even identify the “risky street”. In the case of the street in Orlando the report didn’t give a name but did say there were 28 loans on the street from 2007 to 2008, the same company was the seller in most cases and the properties are now selling for about 10 percent of what they originally “sold” for. Dennis Norman According to a report issued today by CoreLogic, their home price index shows home prices in the U.S. increased in May, marking the fourth-consecutive month there was a year-over-year increase in home prices. U.S. home prices in May 2010 increased by 2.9 percent over May 2009. St. Louis home prices did better than the U.S. average, increasing by 3.49 percent in May 2010 compared with May 2009. No doubt some of the good news was the result of buyers rushing to buy a home before the April 30th deadline to receive tax credits. This will affect the market, and home prices, in a positive manner until these “tax-credit-induced” sales close by the recently extended deadline of September 30, 2010.
Dennis Norman For way too long I’ve been writing about record, or near- record, levels of foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies. My ongoing concern about this, in terms of the housing market, is that I just don’t see how we are going to have a sustainable recovery of the housing market while we have 1 in 8 homeowners with a mortgage in the U.S. currently either delinquent on their mortgage or in some stage of the foreclosure process. Lately there has appeared to be some leveling off of mortgage delinquencies and foreclosure growth is at a slowing rate, both of which are good things. Earlier this week I wrote about a report that came out from LPS Applied Analytics, one of the largest mortgage servicers in the U.S., that discussed the mortgage delinquency rate for May. This morning I was giving more thought to something in the report that I saw the other day but it didn’t hit me at the time but now I realize it is potentially the 800 lb gorilla in the room. According to the report, the average number of days for a loan to move from 30 days delinquent to foreclosure sale has been steadily increasing and is now at an all-time high of 449 days. So, if you add the initial delinquency, that means on average 479 days lapse from the time a borrower misses a payment until they are foreclosed on. While I love the amount of time the struggling homeowner has to stay in their home before losing it, it concerns me greatly that it is taking about 16 months for the lender to complete a foreclosure, and that this is a record high amount of time. What that tells me is, for one reason or another, lenders are stalling and slowing the foreclosure process so any encouragement we have seen of late in this area may be “artificially created” as the result of lenders reluctance to foreclose rather than a result of the housing market and economy actually improving. The problem is the lenders can’t put off the inevitable forever…at some point they are going to have to pick up the pace and start foreclosing on loans rather than stalling and that I’m afraid is going to keep the foreclosure rates at levels that will negatively impact the housing market. Dennis Norman A report released by CoreLogic showed the St. Louis metro area to have a foreclosure rate in April of 1.49 percent up slightly from March’s revised rate of 1.45 percent and an increase of 34.2 percent from the year prior when the rate was 1.11 percent. The national foreclosure rate for April remains over twice the rate of St. Louis at 3.20 percent and was an increase of 30.1 percent from a year ago when the national foreclosure rate was 2.46 percent. For the State of Missouri the April foreclosure rate was 1.33 percent, a 30.4 percent increase from a year ago when Missouri’s rate was 1.02 percent. Looks like more foreclosures to come… Unfortunately, as I have been saying for a while now, I don’t think we are going to see much, if any, improvement in the foreclosure rate anytime soon. The rate of serious mortgage delinquencies continues to increase. For April 2010, 6.17 percent of the home loans in St. Louis were 90 days or more delinquent on their mortgage payments, an increase of 51.2 percent from a year ago when the delinquency rate in St. Louis was 4.1 percent. Nationally, the rate of serious delinquency on home mortgages in April 2010 hit 8.90 percent, an increase of 47.6 percent from a year ago when the national rate was 6.03 percent. Foreclosures will put downward pressure on the Market… Over the past couple of months the housing market has had some reason to celebrate as home sales increased at fairly significant rates. Unfortunately this little bit of Utopia is probably going to be short-lived as it was nothing more than a “false-market” created by the home-buyer tax credits. Now that the April 30th deadline for the tax credits has passed we are going to no doubt see the sales numbers drop as the underlying problems are still there…unemployment and uncertainty about our country’s financial future, to name a couple. Even during these recent “good times” we have seen pricing pressures resulting in home prices continuing to decline in many markets. So, couple the drop in sales we no doubt have coming, along with the still-increasing foreclosure and mortgage delinquency rate, and, in my opinion, we have a recipe to continue to beat on home prices for some time to come. To end on a positive note though…If you are one of the fortunate people out there that are comfortable in your financial position and are looking to make a move, you have an abundance of homes available out there, with record-low interest rates and prices that we haven’t seen, in many cases, in years!
Dennis Norman According to a report released by CoreLogic, there were 11.2 million homeowners that were in a negative equity, or “underwater“, position on their mortgages as of the end of the first quarter of this year. This number is equal to 24 percent of all homeowners with a mortgage in the U.S., which is the same percentage as the prior quarter, however the actual number of underwater borrowers was down slightly from 11.3 million borrowers that were underwater in the prior quarter. In addition, there are an additional 2.3 million borrowers that have less than five percent equity in their homes, bring the total of negative equity and near-negative borrowers to over 28 percent of all homeowners with a mortgage nationwide. A serious decrease in the percentage of mortgages underwater would be better news, but this news is still positive as it shows the rate of borrowers going underwater has stalled out and hopefully we have seen the worst of it. Highlights of the report:
The share of borrowers whose mortgage debt exceeds the property value by 25% or more fell slightly to 10.4% or 4.9 million borrowers, down from 10.6% or 5 million borrowers. The two most important triggers of default, negative equity and unemployment, have stabilized over the last six months. As house prices grow again and borrowers pay down their mortgage debt negative equity levels will begin to diminish. The typical underwater borrower is likely to regain their lost equity over the next five to seven years,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist with CoreLogic.
 Source: CoreLogic
Dennis Norman A report released by CoreLogic showed the St. Louis metro area to have a foreclosure rate in March of 1.49 percent up slightly from February’s rate of 1.44 percent and an increase of 39.3 percent from the year prior when the rate was 1.07 percent. The national foreclosure rate for March remains over twice the rate of St. Louis at 3.23 percent and was an increase of 73.9 percent from a year ago when the national foreclosure rate was 2.32 percent. No End In Site Unfortunately, I don’t think we are going to see much, if any, improvement in the foreclosure rate anytime soon. The rate of serious mortgage delinquencies continues to rise. For March 2010, 6.22 percent of the home loans in St. Louis were 90 days or more delinquent on their mortgage payments, an increase of 55 percent from a year ago when the delinquency rate in St. Louis was 4.02 percent. Nationally, the rate of serious delinquency on home mortgages in March 2010 hit 8.93 percent, an increase of 54.23 percent from a year ago when the national rate was 5.79 percent. Continued Pressure on the Market For the past couple of months we have seen some good reports come out about the housing industry which are indicating that the market may have bottomed out and is starting to stabilize a little finally. Unfortunately, foreclosures bring a lot of downward pressure on the housing market and with the rising foreclosure and delinquency rate, we are assured of feeling this pressure for some time to come. If the economy could rebound strong, unemployment drop, and interest rates remain affordable, then perhaps the housing market could absorb this inventory of foreclosures and their downward pressure on pricing, but that is a big IF.
Dennis Norman Report Cautions That Shadow Inventory and End of Tax Credit Program May Result in Further Declines – Predicts a 3.01 Percent Home Price Decline in St. Louis In Next 12 Months.A report released today by First American CoreLogic shows that national home prices increased 0.3 percent in February 2010 compared to February 2009 and the home price index for St. Louis increased 1.50 percent in February 2010 compared to February 2009
On a month-over-month basis, the national average home price index fell by 2.0 percent in February 2010 compared to January 2010, which was steeper than the previous one-month decline of 1.6 percent from December to January. Prices are typically weak in the winter months, so seasonal effects may be driving this one-month change. Highlights from the February 2010 Report:
What Lies Ahead? The CoreLogic report forecast was not as optimistic as it has been in the past and is showing a softer recvoery than in previous forecasts. The forecast calls for an increase in the inventory of homes for sale as interest rates are expected to rise, tax credits expire, and slower than expected sales over the winter due to the weather are all adding to the inventory. Highlights from the forecast:
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