After hitting the highest rate in over 13 years just two weeks ago at 6.28%, as the chart below shows, mortgage interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages declined today to 5.75%. The likelihood of interest staying under 6% is hard to to say at this time but I would say enjoy it while it lasts!
Price reduction, what’s that? All we seem to have heard about the last couple of years with regard to home prices is how much OVER the list price buyers were having to pay in order to buy a home. So, to be talking about price reductions today seems odd. However, as the infographic below illustrates, there have been listings with price reductions over the past couple of years, it’s just the current level of them is higher than we have seen in a while.
For the first three weeks of June there were 1,475 new listings of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-county core market, according to the STL Real Estate Trends Report from MORE, REALTORS®. During the same period, there were 1,194 new contracts written on homes for sale resulting in a new listing to new contract ratio of 1.25. This ratio of listings to new sales is higher than it was 3 weeks ago when I shared the last update from the STL Real Estate Trends report and it was 1.05 at that time for the period reported which was the first 3 weeks of May.
It was at the end of last week that the mortgage bond market blew apart forcing mortgage interest rates up so when our new report for this week is release next Thursday we’ll see what effect that had on the market.
After over 40 years in the real estate business in St Louis I’ve seen many times just how fast a good, or even great housing market can turn sour as well as the other way around. Two years ago, economic conditions relevant to the housing market included:
- Interest rates in the 3’s
- Inflation rate under 2%
- The money supply increasing at a historically normal rate
- A steady and robust St Louis housing market
Today, the above conditions are:
- Interest rates in the 6.25% – 6.5% range with the threat of increasing
- Inflation rate approaching 9%
- The money supply increasing nearly 50% in 2 years – that’s the same percentage increase that it had in the prior 7 years.
- A St Louis housing market that is showing signs of slowing as well as concern and even fear among real estate agents and consumers.
Does this mean St Louis home prices will come crashing down?
First off, I’m not an economist, in fact I didn’t even attend college and I certainly don’t have a crystal ball showing me the future, but I am a data junkie that has lived through a variety of markets spanning more than 4 decades. My experience as well as my study of past markets as well as current indicators of things to come certainly give me an opinion. In times past, my opinions on the market have been spot on, almost to the point that I even surprised myself (such as in October 2006, at the peak of the housing boom when I predicted the collapse) and other times I’ve been wrong, sometimes way wrong. The reality is that the housing market is affected, or can be affected by so many different economic factors, as well as social issues, consumer sentiment and more that I don’t believe anyone can predict what it’s going to do accurately consistently.
The bond market had one of the worst days in history yesterday resulting in mortgage interest rates on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage hitting 6.0% and above. This is the highest rates have been since November 20, 2008 when the mortgage interest rates were 6.04%, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey®.
Is there a silver-lining to the higher interest rates?
Given that the reason for the higher interest rates has to do with our high inflation rates and declining economic conditions, it’s hard to find much positive to say about what is happening. Having said that, the one thing that comes to mind is these rate increases will no doubt slow down the rapid price growth on homes we’ve seen over the past couple of years. This will likely cause home prices to flatten and the premiums buyers have paid over and above what the buyer, seller and agents involved knew the home was actually worth are history in my opinion.
So, while as a buyer, you will be facing higher interest rates than you would have a year ago, you should receive some relief in the price not being as high as it would have if the low rates were still here, less competition due to some buyers leaving the market and being able to purchase a home without paying a significant premium above the value to get it.
Mortgage Interest Rates – 2000-Present- 30-year fixed rate mortgage
(click on chart for live, interactive chart)
There have been 9,645 homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market during the first 5-months of this year which, as the STL Market Chart below illustrates, is a decline of 8.8% from the same time last year when there were 10,579 homes sold.
2022 home sales outpacing 2020…
While this years St Louis home sales are lagging behind last years, as the chart below also shows, 2022 YTD home sales is 2.8% higher than in 2020 when there were 9,382 YTD home sales.
$1 Million+ home sales going strong…
The bottom chart shows there have been 189 one-million dollar+ homes sold in St Louis year-to-date through May 31st, a slight increase over last year when there were 187 homes sold during the period. This years $1,000,000+ home sales are 89% higher than they were during the period in 2020.
Every month Fannie Mae surveys consumers to gauge their sentiment toward whether its a good time to buy or sell a home and publishes the result in their Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI). In the most recent HPSI report, 79% of the people surveyed said they felt now was a bad time to buy a home, which is the highest percentage of people feeling this way since the survey was begun in 2012. Seventeen percent of those surveyed felt it was a good time to buy a home and 4% didn’t know whether it was or not.
With the bidding wars we’ve seen on listings resulting in sold prices that exceed the asking price in St Louis over the past couple of years, it’s hard to imagine that home values could be lower today than a year ago. Now, before you call me crazy, I’m not saying that St Louis homes are SELLING for LESS now than a year ago. As our STL Market Chart below shows, the median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market was $254,950 in May 2021 and $270,000 last month, for an increase in sales price of 5.9%. However, given that, as the chart at the bottom shows, the inflation rate has increased 8.6% during the past 12-months, St Louis home prices have not increased as much as inflation, thereby leaving them worth less today than they were worth a year ago after adjusting for inflation.
Home prices last month would have needed to be $276,829 to keep pace with inflation…
In order to keep pace with inflation and make a median-priced St Louis home worth the same in today’s dollars as it was worth a year ago it would have be worth $276,829 today at the current rate of inflation.
If we look farther back it gets better….
There were 5,138 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended April 30, 2022, a decrease of 9.69% from the same period a year ago when there were 5,138 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). Four of the seven counties covered in the report saw a double-digit decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago.
St Louis New Home Building Permits -April 2022
Given the low-inventory of homes for sale that has existed for some time now, it may be hard to believe my next statement, but the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD show that there is currently a 9-month supply of newly constructed homes in the U.S. As the chart below illustrates, this is the highest level the supply of new homes in the U.S. has reached since May 2010 when there was a 9.3 month supply.
The months supply of depicted below is calculated as the ratio of new homes for sale to the number of new homes sold. The resulting number represents the number of months it would take for the current new home inventory that is for sale to be depleted given the current sales rate if no new additional new homes were built.
Months Supply of New Homes In The U.S.
(click chart for live, interactive chart)
There were 2.71 million home loan originations during the first quarter of this year in the U.S., according to the U.S. Residential Property Mortgage Origination Report from ATTOM. This is an 18% decline from the prior quarter, the largest quarterly decline since 2017 and marks the fourth straight quarterly decline in loan originations according to the report.
Refinancing saw a bigger decline than home purchases…
During the first quarter of this year there were 1,446,622 loans originated that were refinances of existing mortgages which is a decline of 21.7% from the prior quarter. There were 1,011,975 loans originated for home purchases during the quarter and this was down 18.3% from the prior quarter.
St Louis is the metro that saw the second-highest decline…
I according to the report the metro area with the largest quarterly decrees and loan origination’s for home purchases was Huntsville Alabama with a 61.3% decrease followed by St Louis Missouri with a 55.3% decrease.
On May 12th the 30-year fixed rate mortgage interest rate hit 5.3%, the highest rates since June 2009, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey®. As the chart below illustrates, mortgage interest rate have declined the last three consecutive weeks falling to 5.09% at the end of last week, the lowest rate since April 14th when the average interest rate was 5.0%.
Mortgage Interest Rates – 30 and 15-Year Conventional Loans and 5/1 ARM Loan
(click on chart for live, interactive chart)
On May 12th the 30-year fixed rate mortgage interest rate hit 5.3%, the highest rates since June 2009, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey®. As the chart below illustrates, mortgage interest rate have declined the last two consecutive weeks falling to 5.10% yesterday, the lowest rate since April 28th.
There are more affordable options…
The chart I selected to show below also shows the mortgage interest rates for 15-year mortgages as well as something almost no one has had a reason to talk about for several years, adjustable rate mortgages (ARM’s). With mortgage interest rates as low as they were, ARM’s were rarely considered by a purchaser however, today they provide a more affordable option than a 30-year fixed mortgage. For example, the 5/1 arm shown on the chart below had a rate of 4.2% yesterday.
Mortgage Interest Rates – 30 and 15-Year Conventional Loans and 5/1 ARM Loan
(click on chart for live, interactive chart)
The pending home sales index from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) was released showing the midwest region as the only region that had an increase from March to April. According to the NAR report below, the pending home sales index for the midwest increased 6.6% from March to April while declining 3.9% for the nation as a whole. As the table below shows, all while all four regions in the U.S. saw a decline in the pending home sales index from a year ago, the midwest fared the best again showing only a 2.8% decline while the other regions all saw a double-digit decline.
National Association of REALTORS®
Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)
For the first three weeks of May there were 2,115 new listings of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-county core market, according to the STL Real Estate Trends Report from MORE, REALTORS®. During the same period, there were 2,019 new contracts written on homes for sale resulting in a new listing to new contract ratio of 1.05. This is pretty consistent with the recent trend with new listings slightly outpacing new sales. As the tables at the bottom show, for April there were 3,470 new listings and 3,269 new contracts written for a new listing to new contract ratio of 1.06.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) in conjunction with Wells Fargo publishes their House Market Index (HMI) monthly which reveals the sentiment of home builders about the market. In the report released yesterday, the HMI fell 8 points to 69, marking the fifth month in a row that builder sentiment as declined and becoming the lowest level for builder sentiment since June 2020.
It may not be all that bad though…
As it true with most data, it’s all relative. With this in mind, this may be the 5th straight month that builder sentiment has fallen however, as the chart below illustrates at a level of 69 builder sentiment is still at a level that is historically high. Since the inception of the HMI in January of 1985 the median value of the index is 56 so at 69 we’re still well above the overall median. In the last 10 years, the median of the HMI Index has been 63 so the current level is also above that.
NAHB House Market Index (HMI)
There were 4,699 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended March 31, 2022, a decrease of 6.86% from the same period a year ago when there were 5,045 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). Four of the seven counties covered in the report saw a double-digit decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago.
St Louis New Home Building Permits -March 2022
There have been a lot of reports over the past month about rising interest rates (mortgage rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 5.27% last week) as well as rising inflation rates (8.5% in March) and the effect these things will have on the housing market. It’s no doubt they will have some affect on home prices and sales and I have been watching the data on St Louis home prices and sales closely and so far there does not appear to be much impact.
St Louis home sales increase in April from March…
There are two ways we analyze home sales at MORE, REALTORS®; the traditional manner, which is what almost all public reports are based upon, closed sales (which are really indicative of what the market was like 1-2 months previously since that is when the contracts were typically written) and then by use of our STL Real Estate Trends Report, which gives us a better idea of the current activity. Our trends report shows the number of new contracts written on listings, so current sales activity as well as the number of new listings entering the market. The good news is, when looking at St Louis home sales activity for April, both closed sales and newly written contracts increased from the month before.
As our chart below shows, there were 2,134 homes sold in St Louis (5-county core market) during April, a 6.4% increase from March when there were 2,005 homes sold. As the STL Real Estate Trends Report shows, there were 3,279 new contracts written on homes during April in the St Louis 5-county core market, an increase of 5% from the prior month when there were 3,124 contracts written.
Last week there were 551 new contracts written for the sale of listings in the St Louis 5-county core market down over thirty-six percent (31.3%) from the week before when there were 802 new contracts written, according to the STL Real Estate Trends Report, exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®. The new sales activity last week was down even more (nearly 36%) from the same week a year ago when there were 851 new contracts written on listings. There is no doubt this is the result of mortgage interest rates which have nearly doubled in the last 15 months.
New listings on the other hand increased last week to 851 from 618 the week before. The new listing activity is pretty much in line with the same week a year ago when there were 858 new listings. If this trend continues the listing supply will likely increase significantly. Given that the for the 5-county core market its been under 1 month for a long time, it can afford to increase some.
The current week will be very telling. When we see data next week from this week, if the numbers are similar to what we saw last week, it’s a likely indicator of a market shift to some extent. Time will tell..
In an article published yesterday, I referenced the Sitzer vs National Association of REALTORS law suit and said I would have a more in-depth discussion about that suit and here it is. The lawsuit was filed by Joshua Sitzer, Amy Winger, Scott and Rhonda Burnett and Ryan Hendrickson on June 21, 2019 against the National Association of Realtors and the parent companies of major real estate companies and franchises including Coldwell Banker, ReMax, Keller Williams and Berkshire Hathaway Homeservices.
The Sitzer lawsuit was filed in the United States District Court for the Western District of Missouri sought to be certified as a class action lawsuit on behalf of “all persons and entities who listed properties on one of four Multiple Listing Services…and paid a broker commission from at least April 29, 2015 until the Present…“. The four MLS’s listed in the suit that this applies to are:
- Heartland MLS (Kansas City, MO)
- MARIS MLS (St Louis, MO)
- Southern Missouri Regional MLS (Springfield, MO)
- CBOR MLS (Columbia, MO)
Last Friday, April 22, 2022, Stephen R. Bough, a Federal Judge for in the Western District of Missouri, issued an order granting the class action status for the lawsuit the Plaintiffs sought.
What does the class action ruling change?
The past several days have not been good for the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) from a legal perspective at least.
First, last Friday, April 22, 2022, Stephen R. Bough, a Federal Judge for in the Western District of Missouri, certified a lawsuit against NAR as a class action suit.The suit, known as the “Sitzer” suit as the original plaintiffs were Joshua Sitzer and Amy Winger, alleges that the defendant, the National Association of REALTORS® “created and implemented anticompetitive rules which require home sellers to pay commission to the broker representing the home buyer“. The plaintiffs in the suit also allege that the other defendants, which include Realogy Holdings Corp, Homeservices of America, Inc., Re/MAX LLC and Keller Williams Realty, Inc., “enforce those rules through anticompetitive practices.” I believe this action by the court was expected and likely did not come as a surprise to anyone but it was not good news for NAR or the other defendants. In the coming days I’ll be doing an in-depth article on this one.
Then, yesterday, the United States Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit delivered another and this time, a likely unexpected, blow to the National Association of REALTORS® in the form of a reversal of a suit against NAR that had been dismissed previously by a lower court. The suit, PLS.com v. the National Association of REALTORS®, is another suit alleging anti-trust violations by NAR and the other defendants which are all MLS’s. The suit was brought originally by PLS.com as a result of NAR enacting its “Clear Cooperation Policy” which for all intents and purposes, dictates to agents and brokers how and when they can market their listings. I’ve written several articles specifically on this policy in the past which can be found using the following links:
The Missouri Department of Commerce and Insurance (DCI) is the state agency that investigates complaints against insurance companies made by consumers in Missouri. Annually, the DCI releases its complaint report reporting on the complaints made in the preceding year by company, type of insurance, etc. In compiling the report the DCI assigns a “complaint index” to each company, based upon the number of complaints the department received for a consecutive three-year period relative to the amount of product-specific premium a Missouri licensed company experienced that same period. An index number of 100 means that the department received the normally expected number of complaints about that company, an index number less than 100 indicates the company was the subject of less than the normally expected number of complaints and an index that is greater than 100 shows the department received more than the normally expected number of complaints about that company.
Below, I have compiled a list of the top 20 providers of homeowners insurance in Missouri (based upon market share) ranked by their complaint index with the companies with the worst complaint index first. The companies list with a red background have a complaint index above 100 and the ones in green have a complaint index below 100. As the table shows, Auto Club Family Insurance Company as the worst complaint index on the list at 166, followed by Allstate Vehicle and Property Insurance Company (145), Auto Owners (131), Travelers (121) and State Farm (117) rounds out the top 5 with the worst complaint indexes.
To obtain the complete report showing all companies as well as complaint indexes for all lines of business click here or on the table below.
Even with the high rate of inflation, rising interest rates and general unrest in the economy, during the past two weeks there were more new contracts written on listings than there were new listings. According to the STL Real Estate Trends Report, exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®, during the last two weeks there were 1,496 new contracts accepted on listings in the St Louis 5-County core market while there were 1,432 new listings during the same period. While there were only 4.5% more sales than listings, given the fact we are already in a low-inventory market, this is fairly significant.
STL Real Estate Trends Report
(click on report for current report)
St Louis Real Estate Report for March 2022
Yesterday, I wrote an article addressing the high rate of inflation just reported and its impact on the St Louis housing market. In it, I promised to take a deeper look into the effect of the current events related to the economy on St Louis home prices which I will do in this article.
Before I go further, I should mention I’m not an economist nor a fortune teller. I am, however, a real estate broker and data nerd that has spent over 40 years in the St Louis real estate industry. I try my best to use my knowledge and experience to anticipate changes in the market and use this to help our agents and clients use this information to their advantage.
History always repeats itself..
I find the above old adage to be pretty accurate when it comes to the real estate market. Therefore, in trying to get my head around what impact a high inflation rate may have on home prices, I started by going back to prior periods of high inflation rates.
The first chart below shows the rate of inflation, interest rates, and the St Louis home price index. I’ve made some notes on it to show prior inflationary periods and the effect on home prices. The first period, the early 80s was much worse than today as inflation was higher and interest rates were in the stratosphere hitting 18%. The more recent period around 2007-2009 was not as severe and therefore the impact on home prices was not as dramatic as the former either. As you can see on the far right side of the chart, home prices have increased in the past several months at a sharp rate with the change from a year ago being greater than the last inflationary period but not as great as the one from the early ’80s.
The next chart shows the relationship between home prices and rent. When home prices outpace rent, home prices decline, when rent outpaces home prices, prices rise. As the chart shows, these two lines have converged indicating a reasonable balance between home prices and rent.
During the period of 2007 – 2011 home prices fell over 17% during a four year period before finally bottoming out.
Today is different though…
This week it was announced that the U.S. inflation rate in March had increased to a staggering 8.5% the highest rate in over 40 years as illustrated by the chart below. The last time the inflation rate was higher than this was in December 1981 when it hit 8.9%. The “inflation rate” that I’m referring to, and is the most commonly reported, is based upon the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average. One of the categories included in the CPI-U is “shelter”. The report shows the shelter inflation rate at 5% which, on the surface sounds low however, the median price of homes sold in St Louis in March was $250,000 an increase of just over 4% from March 2021 when the median sold price was $240,000.
What does an inflation rate of 8.5% mean for the real estate market?
With everything going on in our economy, country and world now I think it’s literally impossible to predict what is going to happen on any front with any level of accuracy however, a good guide would be what has happened in the past during similar times. With this in mind, lets look at what the market looked like the last time inflation was at this level, December 1981:
- Mortgage interest-rates on a 30-year fixed mortgage were an average of 17%-18% (see chart below)
- The inflation rate actually reached a peak of 14.4% in March of 1980
- St Louis home prices peaked during the 1st quarter of 1979 then declined until bottoming-out during the 2nd quarter of 1981 (see chart at bottom)
Yesterday, I shared that, according to the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI), nearly three-fourths of consumers think now is not a good time to buy a home. However, the same survey that produced that data also showed that tw0-thirds of the consumers that responded said if they would buy a home vs rent if they were in fact going to move. As our chart below illustrates, for 3 of the last four months, 66% indicated they would buy. While the percentage that indicated they would buy was as high as 72% last May, it was in fact the same, at 66% a year ago in March as well as the year before that in March. So, while consumers don’t think now is a good time to buy, it appears many are doing it or would do it, anyway.
Every month Fannie Mae surveys consumers about owning and renting a home as well as about other issues related to the housing market and economy and from the results publishes its Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI). One of the components of the index is what the sentiment is on whether now is a good time to buy a home or sell a home. In April 2022, HPSI consumers’ sentiment on whether now is a good time to buy a home hit an all-time low with just 24% of respondents saying now is a good time to buy a home. As the charts below illustrate, 73% of respondents said now was a bad time to buy a home.
Some remodeling projects are done by homeowners that plan to stay in their homes for the foreseeable future and want to get the most enjoyment and functionality out of living there. These homeowners typically aren’t as concerned, if at all, with getting a monetary return on their investment as their return is the enjoyment of the improvements. However, other homeowners, particularly those that may only be in their homes a couple of years or so before their next move, tend to focus more on making sure the remodeling they do will bring them a return on their investment to make it worthwhile. Granted, the return may be less than the cost but, after factoring in the enjoyment from the improvement the improvement may be worth it.
What are the remodeling projects that bring the best returns?
According to the National Association of REALTORS® 2022 Remodeling Impact Report, below is the cost recovery of the top interior and exterior remodeling projects:
- Interior
- Hardwood flooring refinish- Return on cost – 147%
- New wood flooring – Return on cost – 118%
- Insulation upgrade – Return on cost – 100%
- Exterior
- Roofing – Return on cost – 100%
- Garage door- Return on cost – 100%
See the complete report (you can download a copy as well) by clicking the photo or HERE.
There were 4,669 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended February 28, 2022, a decrease of 5.8% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,956 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). Four of the seven counties covered in the report saw a double-digit decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago.
St Louis New Home Building Permits -February 2022
