According to a report just released this morning by ATTOM Data Research, it’s cheaper to buy a home than rent in 6 of 8 St Louis metro area counties covered in the report. The data reported also shows, however, that home prices are rising faster than rents in all of the counties, a trend that, if it continues, could make buying a home a less affordable option in the future. The data also shows, on a postiive note, that in 6 of 8 counties wages are rising faster than rents. The counties are split when it comes to wages vs home prices however, with wages rising faster than home prices in 4 and home prices rising faster than wages in the other 4.
Affordabilty is determined by the percentage of wages necessary to purchase a home in a given County. Based upon this criteria, the most affordable county to buy a home is the City of St Louis at 20.1%, followed by Madison County, IL at 27.3% and then St Louis County at 27.6%. The least affordable county to buy a home on the list is St Charles County at 45.3%
While we still have muncipalities and neighborhoods throughout the St Louis metro area where homes are selling very quickly, there are some areas where it does take longer to sell a home. The list below shows the 10 slowest selling cities in the St Louis MSA based upon the time it took homes to sell that closed within the last month.
At the top of the list is Herculaneum in Jefferson County Missouri where the average time to sell was 154 days, nearly 5 times the median time of 32 days for the St Louis MSA. Of the remaining 9 cities on the list, 5 are in St Louis County, 2 are in Illinois, 1 in Franklin County and 1 in Laclede County.
It may be the slow season for real estate but there are still plenty of areas in St Louis where homes are selling fast! As the table below shows, the cities where homes have sold the fastest in the past 30 days are scattered throughout the St Louis metro area. From number 1 on the list, Wright City in the far western area of the metro area in Warren County to number 2 on the list over on the east side of the Mississippi River in Waterloo Illinois.
10 Fastest SOLD Cities In St Louis Metro Area in Past 30 Days (click on table for complete, live list)
Early Christmas evening, the commercials began for “after Christmas” sales by anxious retailers that couldn’t even wait until after Christmas to tell everyone what great bargains can be had. Well, the same holds true for residential real estate in terms of bargain prices at this time of year. It’s no secret that the number of homes sold, as well as prices, decline during this time of year, but I don’t know that would-be home buyers realize just how much they can save if they buy a home during this slow season.
As the STL Market Chart (exclusively from MORE, REALTORS) below shows, the median price of homes sold (the red line) dropped to the lowest level of the season in January earlier this year and in February the year before. The number of homes sold (the pink line) always hit its lowest level around the same time. Historically, this happens every year around the same time when the market is good as well as when it is not. As the chart shows, the home prices in November remained the same as October, but the number of home sales dropped significantly and prices will follow no doubt. Worth noting is that in January of this year, home prices hit their seasonal low at $168,444 but then by April, just 3 months later had increased 12.5% to $189,500 and finally peaked in June at $204,900, a 21.6% increase from January’s low.
Wishing you and your family and loved ones a very Merry and Blessed Christmas!
“For to us a child is born, to us a son is given, and the government will be on his shoulders. And he will be called Wonderful Counselor, Mighty God, Everlasting Father, Prince of Peace.” Isaiah 9:6
In the last week, I’ve seen several reports indicating declining home sales on both a nationwide basis as well as for the St Louis market. The reports vary widely but one local report indicated single family home sales were down 6 percent from a year ago, which, of course, should cause some concern for both agents as well as consumers since a 6 percent decline is significant. However, this is why, for this very reason, MORE, REALTORS®developed their own proprietary software to analyze and report the market data (the same MLS data as the aforementioned report was based upon) and present it in a manner that more accurately depicts the market conditions and is more applicable than many of the other reports out there.
Before I go further, I’m not picking on anyone reporting market information, as most are simply reporting the data that is available to them and doing so in a common manner which is to look at data for one specific month (in this case November) and compare it to the same month a year ago. I’m just suggesting that due to fluctuations that can be caused by, for example, weather during the month, the number of Friday’s during the month (a popular day for closings), etc. looking at a single month doesn’t paint a true picture of the market. It also matters what area the data is for, is it the St Louis MSA (which includes 8 counties in Illninois) or the city of St Louis, or some other combination?
As you will see from our STL Market Report™ tables I’ve prepared below, the St Louis real estate market is actually holding fairly steady in terms of sales when we look at the past 12-month period and compare it with the prior 12-month period. In terms of home prices, St Louis home prices have increased about 4% – 5% in the St Louis area, depending on how we look at the area.
A report released by Knock, a company that buys homes, forecasts that, nationally, 77% of current listings will sell below the original list price during the first quarter of 2019 and in St Louis, 82.61% of the listings will sell below list price. The report goes on to forecast that, on average, during the first quarter of 2019 homes in St Louis will sell for 5.2% less than the original list price and will take an average of 22 days to sell.
70% of St Louis Listings Sold For Less Than Original Price During Past 3 Months…
As our exclusive STL Market Chart tables below show, during the past 3 month period, 5,055 of the 7,240 (69.8%) homes that sold in the St Louis 5-County core market, sold for less than the original asking price. Therefore, Knock’s prediction that this percentage hits 82.61% during the coming 3 months is not a stretch. Nearly half (46%) of the 8,883 active listings on the market have already had at least one price reduction.
Every year around this time is when many homeowners that have their homes listed for sale discuss with their agent whether they should just take their home or condo off the market as Christmas approaches, then come back on the market after the beginning of the new year. Many homeowners that are thinking of selling contemplate the same thing trying to decide whether to come on the market before the holidays or wait until after.
It is a well-known fact this is a slower time of the year for the St Louis real estate market, but does that mean it’s so bad that you should remove your listing from the market and take a break? Well, while a lot of people may decide to do this, often because they will have family and friends visiting or staying with them, one can make a decent argument for staying on the market around Christmas if it’s possible.
Homes and condos do sell during Christmas week…
To address the issue of whether it makes sense for a seller to stay on the market over Christmas, I pulled stats for Christmas week last year, to see how many homes and condos went under contract that week. As the MORE, REALTORS® exclusive STL Market Reports™ table shows, there were 291 listings that went under contract Christmas week 2017 in the St Louis 5-County Core real estate market.
There were 9,983 home purchase mortgage loans originated in the St Louis metro area during the 3rd quarter of this year, a decline of 5% from the prior quarter and a decline of 3% from a year ago, according to a report just released by ATTOM Data Services. This is the lowest number of home purchase loan originations for the 3rd quarter since 2015 when there were 9,731 home purchase mortgage loans originated. As the historical table below shows, the peak for loan originations in St Louis was in the 3rd quarter of 2005 when there were 17,698 purchase mortgage loans originated.
St Louis MSA Purchase Mortgage Originations
St Louis MSA Historical Purchase Mortgage Originations
The St Louis real estate market is lagging a little behind last year in terms of home sales and the inventory of homes for sale is on the rise. While some of this is, of course, seasonal, perhaps some of it could be related to home prices increasing over the past year or so at a higher rate than the historical “norm” as well as may be reflective of the higher interest rates we are experiencing now versus last year.
While it’s still a seller’s market in some areas of St Louis and in some price ranges, our market indicators have more markets shifting to a buyers market or, at a minimum, a changing market. Seller’s won’t like to see this but it could be some welcome relief for home buyers that may be growing weary from bidding wars, getting beat out on the home they want and the like.
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!
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There were 37,721 homes sold in the St Louis metropolitan area during the past 12 months as reported byMORE, REALTORS. Of those, as the chart below illustrates, conventional financing made up the lion’s share of the sales. Conventional mortgages accounted for 18,967 home sales (50.3%), followed by cash transactions with no financing that accounted for 7,109 sales (18.9%), then 6,353 (16.8%) sales with FHAloans, 2,333 (6.2%) with VA loans, and 770 (2.0%) sales financed with USDA financing. The remaining 5.8% of the home sales were financed with one of roughly 30 other lessor popular financing methods.
St Louis MSA Home Sales By Financing Type – Past 12 Months
There were 752 home “flips” in the St Louis metro area during the third quarter of this year, representing 6.5% of the homes sold during the period, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Research. This is a decline of 7.4% from the prior quarter and a decline of 2.0% from the same quarter last year.
What is meant by “flipped” home?
ATTOM Data considers any home or condo that was sold during the third quarter of this year in an arms-length sale that had previously had an arms-length sale within the prior 12 months as well as a “flip”. Since homeowners don’t tend to buy a home only to turn around and resell it within a year, when this does occur it is typically the result of an investor buying a property, renovating it, then reselling it.
It’s no secret that home sales slow down this time of year in St Louis however, there are still plenty of cities in St Louis where homes are selling quickly! As the table below shows, Rock Hill is at the top of our Fastest Selling Cities list with the current supply of homes for sale being on the market for an average of just 29 days. Of the 10 cities on our list, all but one are in St Louis County and, of the 9 in St Louis County, 5 are in North County.
St Louis’ Fastest Selling Cities
(click on the table to see the complete table with current data)
What is the housing market like in St Louis’ Fastest Selling City – Rock Hill?
The impact of the strong economy the U.S. is currently experiencing can be seen in the National Association of REALTORS (NAR) 2018 Member Profile. In the NAR report when agents were asked about the most important factor limiting potential home-buyer clients from completing a transaction, the answers given in the most recent survey show a strong improvement in economy-related issues from the 2015 survey. For example, below are some highlights from the survey for the most important factor limiting potential buyers in completing a transaction:
Difficulty in obtaining financing dropped from 26% in 2015 to just 12% in 2018
Low consumer confidence dropped from 5% in 2015 to just 1% in 2018
Ability to sell existing home dropped from 6% in 2015 to 3% in 2018.
The median price of homes sold in Franklin County during the 12 month period ended October 31, 2018, was $150,000 according to the STL Market Report™ from MORE™, REALTORS®. As the STL Market Report™ below shows, this is exactly the same as during the prior 12-month period. During the most recent 12-month period, there were 1,282 homes sold in Franklin County, a decrease of 2.29% from the prior 12-month period. There is currently a 4.13 month supply of homes for sale in Franklin County and listings have been on the market a median time of 98 days.
The median price of homes sold in Jefferson County during the 12 month period ended October 31, 2018, was $169,000 according to the STL Market Report™ from MORE™, REALTORS®. As the STL Market Report™ below shows, this is an increase in the median price of homes sold of 2.42% from the prior 12-month period. During the most recent 12-month period, there were 3,407 homes sold in Jefferson County, a decrease of 0.7% from the prior 12-month period. There is currently a 2.78 month supply of homes for sale in Jefferson County and listings have been on the market a median time of 119 days.
The median price of homes sold in St Charles County during the 12 month period ended October 31, 2018, was $230,000 according to the STL Market Report™ from MORE™, REALTORS®. As the STL Market Report™ below shows, this is an increase in the median price of homes sold of 4.55% from the prior 12-month period. During the most recent 12-month period, there were 6,081 homes sold in St Charles County, an increase of 1.11% from the prior 12-month period. There is currently a 2.52 month supply of homes for sale in St Charles County and listings have been on the market a median time of 74 days.
Thanksgiving began in the U.S. in 1789 after the issuance of the proclamation below made by President George Washington and was initially a harvest festival. Thanksgiving did not actually become a federal holiday in the U.S. until 1864 when President Abraham Lincoln proclaimed it “as a day of thanksgiving and praise to Almighty God, the beneficent Creator, and Ruler of the Universe.”.
Thanksgiving Proclamation
By the President of the United States of America, a Proclamation.
Whereas it is the duty of all nations to acknowledge the providence of Almighty God, to obey His will, to be grateful for His benefits, and humbly to implore His protection and favor; and—Whereas both Houses of Congress have, by their joint committee, requested me “to recommend to the people of the United States a day of public thanksgiving and prayer, to be observed by acknowledging with grateful hearts the many and signal favors of Almighty God, especially by affording them an opportunity peaceably to establish a form of government for their safety and happiness:” Continue reading Happy Thanksgiving! How It Began…
The median price of homes sold in St Louis City and County combined during the 12 month period ended October 31, 2018 was $185,000 according to the STL Market Report™ from MORE™, REALTORS®. As the STL Market Report™ below shows, this is an increase in the median price of condos sold of 5.11% from the prior 12-month period. During the most recent 12-month period, there were 16,841 homes sold in St Louis City and County combined, just 6 sales more than the prior 12-month period. There is currently a 2.67 month supply of condos for sale in St Louis City and County combined and listings have been on the market a median time of 64 days.
STL Market Report – Homes – St Louis City and County Combined
The overall mortgage delinquency rate in the U.S. fell in August to the lowest level in over 12 years, according to a report just released by CoreLogic. According to the report, 4.2% of all St Louis home mortgages were 30+ days delinquent in August 2018, a decline of over 14% from a year ago when the rate was 4.9%. During the same period, seriously delinquent mortgages, those that are 90+ days late, in St Louis dropped from 1.8% a year ago to 1.4% in August 2018, according to the report.
According to a report just released by ATTOM Data Solutions, 16.9% of the homeowners in St Louis with a mortgage are “equity-rich”, meaning their loan balance is 50% or less of their home’s estimated value. As the table below illustrates, this is an increase from 15.8% during the 2nd quarter as well as the 1st quarter of this year.
St Louis increase in equity surpassed the U.S. average but fell behind Kansas City and Chicago…
As the table below shows, during the past 2 years, the percentage of equity-rich homeowners in St Louis increased from 16.0% to 16.9%, an increase of nearly 6%. However, in Kansas City, the rate went from 12.0% to 21.0%, an increase of 75% and in Chicago from 15.0% to 16.8% for an increase of 12%. Nationally, however, the rate increase just 1% during the same period, from 23.4% to 25.7%.
During the 3rd quarter of this year, 14.4% of the homeowners in St Louis with a mortgage were “seriously underwater”, meaning they owe at least 25 percent more than the estimated value of their home, according to a report just released by ATTOM Data Solutions. This is the lowest rate this year, down from 15.6% in the 2nd quarter and down from 14.7% in the first quarter of 2018. For the last quarter of 2017, St Louis homeowners that were seriously underwater had fallen to 13.8%.
Kansas City and Chicago have fared better over the past 5 years…
As the table below illustrates, our neighbors to the west and northeast, Kansas City, MO and Chicago, IL, have both seen a greater margin of improvement in their underwater homeowners over the past 5 years. Kansas City went from 23.1% of their homeowners with a mortgage being seriously underwater in the 3rd quarter of 2013 to 9.8% during the 3rd quarter of this year, a reduction of 58% in the rate of underwater homeowners. Chicago, during the same period, went from 35.8% to 13.2%, a reduction of 68%. Meanwhile, here in St Louis, the rate went from 25.4% to 14.4%, a reduction of 40%.
St Louis Seriously Underwater Homeowners – 3rd Quarter 2018
Not only did the beautiful fall weather of October draw St Louis area families to the popular apple and pumpkin picking festivities at Eckert’s Millstadt Farm, it also brought out home buyers putting Millstadt, IL at the top of our fastest SOLD cities in the St Louis metro area for October. As our table below shows (an exclusive feature of MORE™, REALTORS® feature), homes in Millstadt took just an average of 8 days to sell in October. The next nine cities on the list were all in Missouri with 5 of those in St Louis County, 2 in Jefferson County, 1 in St Charles County and 1 in Warren County.
St Louis Metro Fastest SOLD Cities – October 2018
(click on the table to see the complete table with current data)
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I had lunch yesterday with a long-time friend who is a St Louis home-builder who shared with me the continually rising costs of construction he faces. Our conversation was consistent with conversations I’ve had with other builders as well, who cite a variety of things responsible for the ever-increasing costs of new home construction. The areas most often mentioned relate to regulatory and compliance issues, material prices as well as rising labor costs. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), the average cost to build a new home has inreased 56% over the past 15 years. According to the NAHB, over the past 15 years construction costs accounted for a median of 57% of the cost of a new home.
The gap between new home prices and existing home prices widens..
As the chart below illustrates, over the past 15 years, the median price of a new home has increased 68% while, as the bottom chart shows, the price of homes in the U.S. (according to the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index) has only increased 43.6% during the same period. During the past 15 years, new home prices have increased 56% more than home prices overall.
Median Sales Price For New Homes Sold In The U.S. – Past 15 Years
S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index – Past 15 Years
It would be an understatement to say that Zillow® has many real estate agents nervous about their future. It’s not just Zillow® though, it’s Amazon, big banks, and dozens and dozens of new real estate start-ups and changing business models.
A true dysfunctional family…
The most common name that comes up in real estate agent circles when discussing the impact of the internet on the real estate profession topic is Zillow®, and usually in the context of “the enemy“, so to speak. It seems to me the biggest fear among agents about Zillow® is that they want to eliminate real estate agents and instead give consumers a marketplace to buy and sell homes without the need for an agent. What is most interesting to me about this, is that Zillow® made something like nearly $1 Billion last year from selling leads to, guess who? Yep, real estate agents. So, the group that is afraid Zillow® is gunning for them, is lining their coffers with cash to do so, see the dysfunction? To be clear, I’m not blaming agents here for doing business with Zillow®, nor am I saying what Zillow® is doing is wrong, I’m just commenting on what I see and find it rather fascinating.
But wait there’s more…
Going back to Zillow® and all those leads they sell to agents, what makes it even more interesting is the fact that Zillow® is able to generate all those leads as a result of getting more than 1 million real estate agents in the U.S. to send their listings to them and give them permission to market them. Hmm…
The homeownership rate in the U.S. hit 64.4 percent during the third quarter of this year, according to data just released from the Census Bureau. This is the highest rate of homeownership in the U.S. since the third quarter of 2014 when the rate was also 64.4%.
As the chart below shows, homeownership rates increased in the Northeast and West regions during the 3rd quarter, from a year ago, but declined slightly in the Midwest and the South.
Homeownership Rates By U.S. Region – 3rd Quarter 2018 vs 2017
Will technology send real estate agents into near extinction like it did with travel agents and may be doing with taxi-cab drivers today? This is a topic of frequent conversation in our industry, especially with dozens of new, well-funded startups, many with new and different business models, all gunning for a piece of the residential real estate industry.
I don’t like Kool-Aid® and don’t drink it..
Before I start, for the naysayers out there that may think since I’ve spent my entire adult life in real estate that, of course, I’m going to come to the conclusion that real estate agents are critical and you can’t live without one. Well, to quash those fears, just read some of the articles I’ve written here over the past 10 years, you’ll know I don’t drink the Kool-Aid®. I do not recite the chant of REALTOR® cheerleaders or anyone else unless I completely believe what I’m saying and feel qualified to speak on the topic. In fact, there have been many times my opinion on a topic, such as on the mortgage interest deduction, was in direct contrast to that of the National Association of REALTORS®.
Real Estate Agents serve as “The Goldilocks Zone” for consumers….
Forgive me for dragging a science lesson into this real estate conversation, however, it makes for a good illustration of one of the first areas of significance of a real estate agent I want to discuss. In astronomy and astrobiology, there is an area around the sun that is habitable, by not being too close to the sun, nor too far from the sun, that is referred to as the circumstellar habitable zone (CHZ), or by it’s “street name”, The Goldilocks Zone.
I think this is a good metaphor for a real estate transaction. Think of the sun as the buyer and the seller as earth. The seller needs the buyer however, they really need to keep their distance from one another otherwise it will most likely not end with a successful tranasction. The reason I say this is homeowners often have an emotional attachment to their home and, believe it or not, often think their home is worth worth more than it actually is. The buyer, on the other hand, has zero emotional attachment to the home, sees flaws and imperfections in it that are invisible to the current homeowner and, in most cases, thinks it is worth less than the seller. So, with this in mind, if the buyer and seller, with their diametrically different thoughts on the home are put together in one room to negotiate a sale, odds are it won’t end well.
There is a better way! Real estate agents operate in the “Goldilocks Zone“, that safe place that is close enough to each party to the transaction to be effective, but not so close so as to hinder the negotiation process. When a buyer and seller are both represented by real estate agents, they (the buyer and seller) normally do not have any direct contact with each other no do any negotiation between them, but instead allow their respective agents to handle those things. This keeps the emotion out of the picture and also filters what is said through a professional that will filter the message removing anything that wouldn’t be in their clients benefit. An experienced agent, without an emotional attachment to the transcation, will be able to think and act much more objectively, than their client typically and their experience will help them know when and how is the best manner and method to convey offers, negotiate, etc.
There are many more reasons while agents are critical to a successful real estate transaction, some of which I’ll cover in future articles over the next few weeks, but here’s the first one:
Because real estate agents can operate in the “Goldilocks Zone” which is a critical zone to be in for a real estate transaction to have a successful outcome.
In contrast to reports from around the country of a cooling housing market and even a possible bubble in some markets, the St Louis real estate market continues to hold steady. As our exclusive, STL Market Report for the St Louis 5-County core market below shows, during the past 12-months homes have sold at about the same pace as the prior 12-month period, prices are up a little over 5 percent and the supply, while up, is still at a rather low 3 months.
St Louis 5-County core market home sales and prices
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), in their Mortgage Finance Forecast released this week predicted that interest rates on home mortgages will continue to rise this year and will hit 5% early next year. According to the report, the interest rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is expected to come in at an average of 4.6% for the 3rd quarter, which just ended and then rise to an average of 4.9% during the last quarter of this year. Interest rates are then forecast to hit 5.0% during the 1st quarter of 2019, rise to 5.1% by the second quarter, then stay around 5.1% through the end of 2020, according to the report.
During the housing bubble that peaked around 2006 and then burst in 2008 one of the things that got many homeowners in trouble was using their home’s as ATM’s. They did this by using, in most cases, home-equity loans to take advantage of the equity they had in their homes to give them access to tax-free cash to make improvements on their home, pay for vacations, buy cars, boats, whatever. This was fine until the value of homes began declining which resulted in many of these homeowners becoming “underwater“ meaning they owed more on their homes than they were worth.
Yesterday, I wrote an article about the record amount of equity homeowners in the U.S. have in their homes now, even more than in 2006, and today I read a report from TransUnion in which Joe Mellman, their senior vice president, and mortgage business leader, said “There are ample signs that the home equity lending market is poised for growth. Home prices have surpassed 2005 boom levels and household home equity has grown even faster.” The report goes on to say that HELOC’s (home-equity lines of credit) represented the “greatest number of home equity originations in 2017 at 1.2 million, showing a 2.3% year-over-year growth from 2016”
Hopefully, homeowner’s will remember lessons of the past and be wiser about the use of their equity this time around. Below is a table from TransUnion showing the top five uses of home equity loans.
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Before I start, for the naysayers out there that may think since I’ve spent my entire adult life in real estate that, of course, I’m going to come to the conclusion that real estate agents are critical and you can’t live without one. Well, to quash those fears, just read some of the articles I’ve written here over the past 10 years, you’ll know I don’t drink the Kool-Aid®. I do not recite the chant of REALTOR® cheerleaders or anyone else unless I completely believe what I’m saying and feel qualified to speak on the topic. In fact, there have been many times my opinion on a topic, such as on the 
Forgive me for dragging a science lesson into this real estate conversation, however, it makes for a good illustration of one of the first areas of significance of a real estate agent I want to discuss. In astronomy and astrobiology, there is an area around the sun that is habitable, by not being too close to the sun, nor too far from the sun, that is referred to as the circumstellar habitable zone (CHZ), or by it’s “street name”, The Goldilocks Zone.
