The St Louis real estate market continues to show strength and favors sellers, however, buyers have shown they are price-sensitive.
While most of the St Louis market remains a seller’s market based upon the lack of inventory for sale, this does not mean (and the data backs it up) that it’s a blank check for sellers. Buyers in the market appear to be savvy and are price sensitive. In fact, one frustration I hear from agents with over-priced listings is that, not only do they only have few showings, they are not receiving offers. I think the issue is buyers don’t want to tie themselves up negotiating with a seller that, from the outset, seems unreasonable for fear that while tied up with them a real opportunity will come along and they will miss out. Therefore, for sellers to take full advantage of this seller’s market, they need to price their home appropriately from the start.
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.
You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
The St Louis real estate market continues to show strength and favors sellers, however, buyers have shown they are price-sensitive.
While most of the St Louis market remains a seller’s market based upon the lack of inventory for sale, this does not mean (and the data backs it up) that it’s a blank check for sellers. Buyers in the market appear to be savvy and are price sensitive. In fact, one frustration I hear from agents with over-priced listings is that, not only do they only have few showings, they are not receiving offers. I think the issue is buyers don’t want to tie themselves up negotiating with a seller that, from the outset, seems unreasonable for fear that while tied up with them a real opportunity will come along and they will miss out. Therefore, for sellers to take full advantage of this seller’s market, they need to price their home appropriately from the start.
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.
You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
Year to date, through the end of June, there were 12,814 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market, a decline of 4.3% from this time last year when 13,389 homes had sold. This marks the lowest YTD home sales through June since June 2015, when there were 12,110 homes sold. As the second chart below illustrates, the St Louis home sales trend (trailing 12 months and represented by the dark green line) peaked in October 2018 with 26,032 homes sold in the prior 12 months but then stalled and has begun a slight downward trend which continues with 25,434 homes sold in the 12 month period ending in June 2019.
Meanwhile, St Louis home prices continue to rise with the median price of homes sold in the past 12 months in the 5-County Core market increasing 4.44% from the prior 12-month period. As the table below the charts shows, the median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market during the most recent 12-month period was $200,000, an increase from $191,500 during the prior 12-month period.
It’s worth noting that the downward sales trend has flattened out the past two months and the rate of increase in home prices has declined somewhat as well. In addition, the inventory of homes for sale increased from a 1.81 month supply last month to 1.94 months presently.
Would-be home sellers are afraid to list their homes…
The low supply of homes for sale, coupled with the high demand, has many homeowners reluctant to list their homes for sale for fear they will sell but won’t be able to find a home to buy. This is why we developed our “Guaranteed No Sale” program, something that protects sellers from becoming “homeless”. It allows a seller to list their home with the confidence they won’t be obligated to sell if they are not successful in finding a home to buy. You can find out more at GuaranteedNoSale.com.
For the 12-month period ended May 31, 2019, there were building permits issued for 300 new homes in Jefferson County, a decline of nearly 26% from the prior 12-month period according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri. For the same period, there were permits issued for 758 new homes in St Louis County,a decline of 23.50% from the prior 12-month period.
Warren County saw a double-digit percentage increase in building permits again this period, and the City of St Louis again had an increase.
Home affordability declined in the City of St Louis from a 98 on the affordability index in the first quarter to an index of 73 this quarter, for a decline of 25% in home affordability in the City of St Louis, according to the latest data from ATTOM Data Research. In neighboring St Louis County, the affordability was 116 in the first quarter and 89 the 2nd quarter, for a decline of 23%. On the affordability index, anything under 100 indicates homes are less affordable than the historical average and anything over 100 indicates homes are more affordable than the historical average.
Homes became more affordable in Jefferson County and Madison County, IL. during the 2nd quarter. As the table below shows, Jefferson County improved from an already good 105 on the affordability index for the 1st quarter to 108 during the 2nd quarter and Madison County, IL from 103 to 106.
The affordability index takes into account the median home price for the county as well as the median wages for the county, computing what percentage of wages it takes for people in that county to buy a home. In spite of the decrease in affordability in the City of St Louis, it still takes the small percentage of wages (21.7%) to buy a home there. The national average is 33.9%.
Home prices are outpacing wages in 4 of the 7 counties covered…
This past Tuesday night, President Trump signed into law H.R. 299, the “Blue Water Navy Vietnam Veterans Act” was signed into law by President Trump on Tuesday night. H.R. 299, which, among other things good for veterans, eliminates the cap on VA Loans. Currently, the VA can only “guarantee” (they insure 25% of the loan amount for lenders, which is why lenders are willing to make 100% loans to veterans) loans up to the limit established by the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation Act (FHLMCA). Currently, the loan limit is $484,350 however, after the new law goes into effect on January 1, 2020, the VA will be able to provide their guarantee to lenders on loan amounts of any size for veterans.
This is a huge victory for veterans as well as for the real estate industry.
This year is a reassessment year for real property in Missouri, so assessors throughout the state are going to update the property values that tax assessments are based upon. According to state law, the value should reflect the value of the property as of January 1, 2019. Reassessment is done every two years, so the prior reassessment was in 2017. Given that the real estate market has been performing well now for the past several years, and property values are increasing, it’s not surprising that most property owners will see an increase in their assessment from the 2017 value to the 2019 value. However, homeowners in St Louis County have been particularly vocal about their dissatisfaction with the amount of the increase. An article on STL Today earlier this week shared the story of a Kirkwood couple that said: “We feel like we are being ripped off by the county” after the St Louis County assessor increased the value of their home 153% from the prior value two years before. According to the STL Today article, the preliminary figures from Jake Zimmerman, the St Louis County Assessor, show the median increase in assessment was 15% from the last assessment in 2017.
How does the St Louis County Assessors 15% Increase in property values compare with the market data?
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
The city of Frontenac, Missouri is the slowest selling city in the St Louis MSA based upon the average time it took for homes to sell that closed in the past 30 days. As our table below shows, three of the top 10 slowest selling cities are located in St Louis County and all three are affluent areas with higher than average home prices.
The cities of Maryland Heights and Maplewood are currently tied for first place on the list of fasting selling cities in St Louis. As our table below shows, homes that sold in the past 30 days took an average of 15 days to sell in Maryland Heights and Maplewood. Seven of the 10 fastest selling cities are located in St Louis County, two in St Charles County and one in Warren County.
Year to date, through the end of May, there were 9,929 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market, a decline of 5.2% from this time last year when 10,477 homes had sold. This marks the lowest YTD home sales through May since May 2015, when there were 9,262 homes sold. As the second chart below illustrates, the St Louis home sales trend (trailing 12 months and represented by the dark green line) peaked in October 2018 with 26,032 homes sold in the prior 12 months but then stalled and has begun a slight downward trend which continues with 25,433 homes sold in the 12 month period ending in May 2019.
Meanwhile, St Louis home prices continue to rise with the median price of homes sold in the past 12 months in the 5-County Core market increasing 5.21% from the prior 12-month period. As the table below the charts shows, the median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market during the most recent 12-month period was $199,900, an increase from $190,000 during the prior 12-month period.
The inventory of homes for sale has declined even further from last month, with just s 1.81 month supply of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-County Core Market. The low inventory is the key reason behind the lower home sales as there just aren’t enough homes for sale to satisfy the current home buyer demand.
Would-be home sellers are afraid to list their homes…
The low supply of homes for sale, coupled with the high demand, has many homeowners reluctant to list their homes for sale for fear they will sell but won’t be able to find a home to buy. This is why we developed our “Guaranteed No Sale” program, something that protects sellers from becoming “homeless”. It allows a seller to list their home with the confidence they won’t be obligated to sell if they are not successful in finding a home to buy. You can find out more at GuaranteedNoSale.com.
The rate of foreclosure in St Louis in May was 1 foreclosure filing for every 2,013 housing units, an increase of 7.7% from the month before but a decline of 18.8% from May 2018, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Research.
As the table below shows, six counties in the St Louis MSA saw an increase in foreclosure activity in May from the month before however, all the counties in the St Louis MSA except 3, saw a decline from a year ago.
St Louis MSA Foreclosure Rate By County – May 2019
When the time comes for you to sell your home, would you like to sell your home for the highest price? I can’t imagine any homeowner not answering “yes” to that question. So, now that we know what all seller’s want; all we need to do now is determine the best way to go about reaching that goal.
Asking a higher price often doesn’t bring you the highest price..
Simple logic may tell us that, if we want to sell a home for the highest price possible, to make sure we ask a high price for it. However, as the data below will illustrate, this that normally the case. In fact, if a home is listed for a higher price than the optimum listing price it may very well result in it eventually selling for less than it would have if priced at a lower, more accurate, price to being with.
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
Asking the “right” price may not work well either if the marketing or timing is wrong either…
A bill introduced by St Louis County Councilmember Lisa Clancywould require landlords in unincorporated St Louis County to participate in the Section 8 program as well as pretty much any other rental subsidy program. St Louis County bill number 102 (see complete bill at bottom of article), introduced by Councilmember Clancy, if passed, would amend the existing St Louis County “Fair Housing Code” ordinance adding “lawful source of income” to the list of things that a landlord cannot discriminate based upon.
The St Louis County Fair Housing Ordinance (section 717.020) currently makes it unlawful for landlords to discriminate on the basis of race, color, religion, national origin, gender, disability, sexual orientation, gender identity, or familial status. Currently included in the protected classes under St Louis County law, which are not included in the Federal Fair Housing Act, are “sexual orientation” and “gender identity”. In addition, St Louis County has “gender” as a class instead of “sex” as is in the Federal Fair Housing Act. If St Louis County Council bill 102 passes and becomes an ordinance, then “lawful source of income” will be an additional protected class and will be another one that is not in the Federal Fair Housing Act.
There are other municipalities, counties, and states around the country that have passed similar legislation as well. As to be expected, legislation like this has been met with a mixed response.
There were 528 homes “flipped” in the St Louis metro area during the first quarter of 2019, which equated to 7.7% of the total number of homes sold in the St Louis metro area during the quarter, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Research. This is down 14% from the 1st quarter of 2018 but does reflect a 3% increase from the prior quarter. As our table below shows, on a national level, house flipping accounted for 7.2% of the homes sold during the 1st quarter of this year, which is a 23% increase from the quarter before and an 8% increase from a year ago.
Definition of a “flipped” home…
For the purposes of this report, a flipped home is considered to be any home or condo that was sold during the first quarter of this year in an arms-length sale that had previously had an arms-length sale within the prior 12 months. Since homeowners don’t tend to buy a home only to turn around and resell it within a year, when this does occur it is typically the result of an investor buying a property, renovating it, then reselling it.
If you are a homeowner, then during the past week or so you probably received a change of assessment notice from your county assessor informing you of the Assessor’s new assessment of the value of your property. While most people purchase a home with the expectation of it going up in value and, generally, are excited when they find out it has increased in value, this is not one of those occasions. An increase in the Assessor’s opinion of your property value generally results in just one thing…a higher property tax bill.
What can you do if you don’t agree with the property reassessment on your property?
Fortunately, you do have options, including the ability to appeal the property reassessment if you feel it is high. Depending on the county the property is located in, you may even be able to do so by means of an informal conference that can easily be scheduled by phone. However, there are deadlines, so you must act fast. Even if you live in a county that doesn’t offer an informal hearing, or you don’t like the outcome of the informal hearing, you can appeal to the Board of Equalization. Then, if you don’t like the outcome of the Board of Equalization, you can appeal the assessment to the State Tax Commission as well. While this may sound a little overwhelming, the process really is not too bad.
Below are links to a couple of great property reassessment appeal resources that will walk you through the process as well as provide you with helpful phone numbers, links, tools, resources and more:
Missouri Property Reassessment and Taxation Guide – A booklet published by the Missouri State Tax Commission that is filled with useful information on the property reassessment process in Missouri.
How to Appeal Your Property Reassessment – This is a comprehensive resource that walks you through the process to appeal a property reassessment in several St Louis area counties.
Home sales in St Louis through the end of April this year, are lower than they have been at the same time of year since 2015. As our exclusive year-to-date sales chart for the St Louis 5-County Core Market below shows, there have been 7,101 homes sold YTD this year (through 4/30) which is down 5.7% from the same time last year when there were 7,529 homes sold. The last time year-to-date home sales were lower at this time of year than now was back in 2015 when there were just 6,727 homes sold.
St Louis 5-County Core Market YTD Home Sales 2015-2019
For the 12-month period ended April 30, 2019, there were building permits issued for 757 new homes in St Louis County,a decline of 22.80% from the prior 12-month period, according to the latest data from the St Louis HBA. As the table below shows, St Charles County saw a decline of 6.38% during the same period. In February of this year, only two counties showed a downward trend in building permits, but in March that grew to 4 counties and for April, 5 of the 7 counties we are reporting on, show a decline in new home building permits. Warren County continues to show growth and an upward trend in new home construction with an increase of 20.07% in building permits during the most recent 12-month period from the prior 12-month period.
The strong St Louis housing market, as well as the strong economy, continues to help improve mortgage delinquency rates and foreclosure rates in St Louis. The rate of foreclosure in St Louis in April was 1 foreclosure filing for every 2,167 housing units, a decline of 17.4% from the month before when the rate was 1 in every 1,865 housing units, according to the latest data from ATTOM Data Solutions. The April St Louis foreclosure rate was down 17.9% from the year before.
As the table below shows, over half the counties in the St Louis MSA saw an increase in foreclosure activity in April from the month before, all in the double-digits, however, with the exception of the city of St Louis, all of the larger counties saw a decline from the month before.
St Louis MSA Foreclosure Rate By County – April 2019
The number of home sales in St Louis may be down from the recent past but it’s still a Seller’s market!
The lack of home sales in St Louis is certainly not a result of a lack of interest, on the part of home buyers, but more a lack of sellers. This is clear in the data I presented in this months market update video. Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.
You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
During the 1st quarter of this year, the homeownership rate for the St Louis MSA was 66.5% giving St Louis the 26th highest homeownership rate of the 75 largest MSA’s in the country, according to the latest date from the U.S. Census Bureau. As the table below shows, the North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL MSA had the highest homeownership rate during the quarter at 78.0% and Fresno, CA MSA had the lowest at 48.0%.
The rate of homeownership in the state of Missouri was 70.2% during the 1st quarter of this year, giving Missouri the 14th highest rate of homeownership throughout the 50 states plus the District of Columbia, based upon the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. As the table below illustrates, New Hampshire had the highest rate of homeownership at 74.0% and the District of Columbia the lowest at 38.4%.
The St Louis MSA rental vacancy rate during the 1st quarter of this year was 8.1%, an increase from 6.6% the prior quarter, according to data recently released by the U.S. Census Bureau. Given that for 2018 the median rental vacancy rate of 6.8% in the St Louis MSA was a 13 year low, it’s not surprising we may see an uptick in vacancies.
As the table below shows, the rental vacancy rate for the St Louis MSA for the first quarter of 2018 was 9.6% and then fell to 5.6% during the 2nd quarter so perhaps we’ll see a repeat of that this year as well but time will tell.
St Louis Rental Vacancy Rates – 2016 – Present
(click on table for complete data from 2005 – present)
During the 1st quarter of 2019, the homeownership rate for the St Louis MSA was 66.5%, down from 70.5% the prior quarter, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. As the table below shows, the 12-month rolling average for the St Louis homeownership rate was 67.5.% in the 1st quarter of 2019, the highest 12-month rate since the 1st quarter of 2016.
St Louis MSA Homeownership Rate -2016 – 2019
(click on table for complete data from 2005 – present)
As of the end of the first quarter of this year, 16.2% of the homeowners in St Louis were “equity-rich”, meaning their mortgage total is less than 50% of their homes current value, according to the latest data available from ATTOM Data Research.
Equity-Rich St Louis Homeowners – 1st Quarter 2019
During the first quarter of 2019, 14.5% of the homeowners in St Louis with a mortgage, were underwater on their mortgage, meaning they were in a negative-equity position, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Research. As the table below shows, this slight increase follows a decline in the rate for the two prior quarters. The St Louis negative-equity rate is about one and a half times that for the U.S. as a whole.
St Louis Underwater (Negative-Equity) Homeowners – 2013-2019
For the 12-month period ended March 31, 2019, there were building permits issued for 748 new homes in St Louis County,a decline of 23.60% from the prior 12-month period, according to the latest data from the St Louis HBA. As the table below shows, St Charles County saw a decline of 11.23% during the same period. Last month, those were the only two counties showing a downward trend, but, this month, Franklin County and the City of St Louis have also seen new home construction trend downward. Warren County again showed the greatest upward trend in new home construction with an increase of 23.66% in building permits during the most recent 12-month period from the prior 12-month period.
According to the latest estimates by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), there are approximately 2 million licensed real estate agents in the United States. Last year, according to the NAR, there were a total of 5.341 million existing homes sold which equates to one agent for every 2.67 homes sold during the year in the U.S. Wow, talk about competition! Granted, not all licensed agents sell residential real estate as many focus us on commercial real estate, including industrial, retail, office, multi-family, and land, and others focus on farms, large tracts of land, recreational property, etc. Nonetheless, there is still a lot of competition in the real estate industry.
As of last month, there are 1,327,880 real estate agents that are members of the National Associaton of REALTORS® (NAR) and, according to a survey done by NAR of its membership, 70% of their members (929,516) list residential real estate brokerage and their primary field of practice.
How to choose a good real estate agent….
One question that is frequently asked by people interested in buying or selling a home is how should they choose a real estate agent? You can find extensive information on how to choose a good agent at AvoidBadAgents.com, but below is a list of questions to consider asking an agent you are considering working with:
Are you a full-time real estate agent?
Are you a REALTOR®?
How long have you been an agent?
What professional designations and industry awards have you received?
How do they communicate?
Do they know technology and does their firm use it for your benefit?
Year to date, through the end of March, there have been 4,829 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market, a decline of 6.3% from this time last year when 5,156 homes had sold. As the second chart below illustrates, the St Louis home sales trend (trailing 12 months and represented by the dark green line) peaked in October 2018 with 26,032 homes sold in the prior 12 months but then stalled and has begun a slight downward trend since with 25,583 homes sold in the 12 month period ending in March 2019.
Meanwhile, St Louis home prices continue to rise with the median price of homes sold in the past 12 months in the 5-County Core market increasing 4.79% from the prior 12-month period. As the table below the charts shows, the median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market during the most recent 12-month period was $198,950, an increase of 5.26% from the prior 12-month period when the median home price was $189,000.
The inventory of homes for sale has declined from last month, with just s 2.33 month supply of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-County Core Market.
During the first quarter of this year, there were foreclosure filings on 1,948 properties in the St. Louis MSA, which equates to 1 foreclosure filing for every 51 housing units, according to the latest data from ATTOM Data Research. As the table below, which shows data for the 20-largest metro areas in the U.S., shows, this foreclosure rate puts St Louis at number 7 on the list in terms of foreclosure rate.
1st Quarter 2019 – Foreclosure Filings – 20 Largest MSA’s
Home sales in St Louis are on a slower pace than this time last year.
The St Louis real estate market is still performing well, but just not at the same sales rate as last year thus far. Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.
You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
While over the past few years we have seen a strong real estate market and easing mortgage loan guidelines, which is all good, unfortunately, mortgage fraud has been on the rise, according to a report just released by CoreLogic. According to their 2018 Mortgage Fraud Report, the CoreLogic® National Mortgage Application Fraud Risk Index was 151 for the fourth quarter of 2018, up 10% from a year ago when the index was 138.
According to the report, Missouri was one of the top five states for increases in fraud risk for each of the past two years, moving from number 38 in the 2nd quarter of 2016 up to 15 for the 4th quarter of 2018. The top risk factor behind Missouri’s increased mortgage fraud risk was income fraud.
Fraud Type Indicators for States with Highest Year-Over-Year Risk Growth
Missouri Online Real Estate, Inc. 100 Chesterfield Business Parkway - Suite 200, Chesterfield, MO 63005 314-414-6000 - Licensed Real Estate Broker in Missouri
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