After mortgage interest rates on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage nearly hit 5 percent back in November, they have steadily declined and this past week fell to an average of 4.37% according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Last weeks 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate of 4.37% was the lowest average rate report by the survey since Feb 8, 2018, when the average rates were 4.32%.
The outlook for mortgage interest rates looks promising as well with the most recent Fannie Mae Housing Forecast predicting the 30-year fixed rate will stay at 4.5% through the end of 2020.
At the end of last month, Better Together, a not-for-profit group aimed at combining St Louis City and St Louis County into one big “Metro City”, released their plan for doing so. To say this is a hot topic among residents of those two areas would be an understatement.
Proponents of the plan say it will make St Louis the 9th largest city in the U.S., will streamline government, dilute the city crime stats making them appear to be better and, in the end, lead to increased economic development and growth for the region.
Opponents, such as the Municipal League of Metro St Louis argue that their (Better Together) plan is unconstitutional (hence why the Missouri Constitution must be changed to permit it) and that “the great divorce”, the label applied to when the city of St Louis separated from St Louis County back in 1876 was done using the Board of Freeholders, so if the two want to get back together, the same approach should be done to accomplish it (Board of Freeholders). Additionally, the opponents argue that allowing the entire state to decide the fate of the people of these two counties is wrong, that historic cities (such as Florissant and Kirkwood) will be disbanded and, in the end, the underlying problems that hinder growth here won’t’ really be addressed.
The proceeding is, of course, my very brief synopsis of the two views as I see them so I would suggest you research the matter for yourself and have included some resources below to do just that.
The St Louis real estate market is off to a little slower start this year and there are some indicators that we may be in for a little price correction in some areas.
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.
You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
Many of the forecasts for home sales this year call for either a slight decline from last year or about the same as last year, in terms of home sales. I think the St Louis market will probably see about the same number of homes sold in 2019 as we did in 2018, it may just come with a little bit of a price adjustment. So, while I don’t like looking at home sales “year over year” for one month, I’m going to make the exception today and include that. As the first chart below shows, in January there were 1,282 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market (non-distressed home sales) which is down 5% from January 2018 when there were 1,352 homes sold but is up nearly 2% from January 2017 when there were 1,259 homes sold.
During the fourth quarter of 2018, 14.2% of the homeowners in St Louis with a mortgage, were underwater on their mortgage, meaning they were in a negative-equity postion, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Research. As the table below shows, this is the lowest rate since the 4th quarter of 2017 when the St Louis undertwater homeowner rate was at 13.8%. On a national level, just 8.8% of homeowners with a mortgage are underwater which puts the St Louis rate at 161.5% of the US rate.
St Louis Underwater (Negative-Equity) Homeowners – 2013-2018
At the start of this year, the Missouri First-Time Homebuyer Savings Account program went info effect making it easier for first-time home buyers to prepare to buy a home. This program provides for tax-deductible savings acounts for first-time homebuyers making it easier for homebuyers to save for a down payment by giving them a tax decution for the amount they save. People wanting to save for a home can contribute up to $3,200 per year for married couples and $1,600 for all others. Homebuyers participating in this program will be entitled to a tax deduction on their Missouri Income tax return equal to 50% of the amount they contributed to their first-time homebuyer savings account.
The list of the 10 St Louis cities where homes sold for the highest average price last year shown below reveals that the little city of Huntleigh, consisting of a land mass of just 1 square mile but home to some of the wealthiest people in St Louis, is where homes sold for the highest average price during 2018. Granted, there were only two homes sold in Huntleigh during the past year (which were in the MLS) but with prices of $2.785 Million and $9.8 Million (for an average of $6,292,500) it catapulted Huntleigh to the top of the list of the most expensive average home sales price for St Louis. Coming in a distant second to Huntleigh is Ladue where the average sales price was $1.104 Million.
See the most expensive homes sold in St Louis in the past year here.
There were 4,140 building permits issued for new homes in the St Louis area during 2018, a decline of 3.16% from the year before when there were 4,275 permits issued, according to information just released by the Home Builders Association of St Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). The number of permits issued for new homes during 2018 was just slightly down from 2016.
As the table below shows, St Charles County has seen the largest decline in new home construction with 1,499 new home permits issued in 2018, down 12.85% from the year before and decline of 24.48% from 2016 when there were 1,985 permits issued. Franklin County, Warren County and the city of St Louis all had significant double-digit gains in building permits issued during 2018 from the year before.
St Louis New Home Building Permits Issued – 2016-2018
The St Louis real estate market closed out another good year with
2018 finishing just slightly behind the year before in terms of home sales. Thus far, it looks like 2019 is off to a good start as well although higher interest rates will, no doubt, cause a little tension in the market this year.
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.
You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
Jefferson County, with an estimated population of 221,577 during 2018, had 317 foreclosure filings during 2018, giving it the highest rate of foreclosure filings per capita, at 1 foreclosure filing for every 699 in population, of the all the Missouri counties with a population of 50,000 or greater. As the table below shows, the three Missouri counties with the highest foreclosure rate per capita are all located within the St Louis MSA and Boone County, in the Columia MSA, has the lowest forreclosure rate in the State.
Yesterday, I wrote an article about the number of foreclosures in St Louis during 2018 dropping to the lowest number in over 12 years, however, in spite of that good news, St Louis still has the 8th highest rate of foreclosure among the 20 largest metro areas in the U.S.
According to data just released by ATTOM Data Research, as the table below shows, during 2018 St Louis had a foreclosure filing for 1 of every 180 housing units. This rate puts St Louis at the 65th highest rate of the 219 MSA’s in the U.S. with a population of over 200,000 and at the 8th highest rate of the 20 largest MSA’s. Worth noting is St Louis barely made the list of 20 largest MSA’s coming in at 19th largest based upon population.
As evidence of just how much the St Louis housing market has improved since the housing bubble burst a little over a decade ago, as well as a testimony as to the strength of our economy, the number of St Lous homeowners thatlost their homes to foreclosure last year dropped to the lowest level in over 12 years.
As the tables below show, during 2018, 6,882 homeowners in the St Louis metro area received a notice of a foreclosure filing from their lender on their property, a decline of 6% from the prior year when 7,323 homeowners received a foreclosing filing notice. The number of foreclosure filings in St Loius during 2018 was down 68.3% from 2010 when the number of foreclosures in St Louis hit a record high with 21,741 homeowners receiving a foreclosure filing notice.
According to a report just released this morning by ATTOM Data Research, it’s cheaper to buy a home than rent in 6 of 8 St Louis metro area counties covered in the report. The data reported also shows, however, that home prices are rising faster than rents in all of the counties, a trend that, if it continues, could make buying a home a less affordable option in the future. The data also shows, on a postiive note, that in 6 of 8 counties wages are rising faster than rents. The counties are split when it comes to wages vs home prices however, with wages rising faster than home prices in 4 and home prices rising faster than wages in the other 4.
Affordabilty is determined by the percentage of wages necessary to purchase a home in a given County. Based upon this criteria, the most affordable county to buy a home is the City of St Louis at 20.1%, followed by Madison County, IL at 27.3% and then St Louis County at 27.6%. The least affordable county to buy a home on the list is St Charles County at 45.3%
While we still have muncipalities and neighborhoods throughout the St Louis metro area where homes are selling very quickly, there are some areas where it does take longer to sell a home. The list below shows the 10 slowest selling cities in the St Louis MSA based upon the time it took homes to sell that closed within the last month.
At the top of the list is Herculaneum in Jefferson County Missouri where the average time to sell was 154 days, nearly 5 times the median time of 32 days for the St Louis MSA. Of the remaining 9 cities on the list, 5 are in St Louis County, 2 are in Illinois, 1 in Franklin County and 1 in Laclede County.
It may be the slow season for real estate but there are still plenty of areas in St Louis where homes are selling fast! As the table below shows, the cities where homes have sold the fastest in the past 30 days are scattered throughout the St Louis metro area. From number 1 on the list, Wright City in the far western area of the metro area in Warren County to number 2 on the list over on the east side of the Mississippi River in Waterloo Illinois.
10 Fastest SOLD Cities In St Louis Metro Area in Past 30 Days (click on table for complete, live list)
Early Christmas evening, the commercials began for “after Christmas” sales by anxious retailers that couldn’t even wait until after Christmas to tell everyone what great bargains can be had. Well, the same holds true for residential real estate in terms of bargain prices at this time of year. It’s no secret that the number of homes sold, as well as prices, decline during this time of year, but I don’t know that would-be home buyers realize just how much they can save if they buy a home during this slow season.
As the STL Market Chart (exclusively from MORE, REALTORS) below shows, the median price of homes sold (the red line) dropped to the lowest level of the season in January earlier this year and in February the year before. The number of homes sold (the pink line) always hit its lowest level around the same time. Historically, this happens every year around the same time when the market is good as well as when it is not. As the chart shows, the home prices in November remained the same as October, but the number of home sales dropped significantly and prices will follow no doubt. Worth noting is that in January of this year, home prices hit their seasonal low at $168,444 but then by April, just 3 months later had increased 12.5% to $189,500 and finally peaked in June at $204,900, a 21.6% increase from January’s low.
Wishing you and your family and loved ones a very Merry and Blessed Christmas!
“For to us a child is born, to us a son is given, and the government will be on his shoulders. And he will be called Wonderful Counselor, Mighty God, Everlasting Father, Prince of Peace.” Isaiah 9:6
In the last week, I’ve seen several reports indicating declining home sales on both a nationwide basis as well as for the St Louis market. The reports vary widely but one local report indicated single family home sales were down 6 percent from a year ago, which, of course, should cause some concern for both agents as well as consumers since a 6 percent decline is significant. However, this is why, for this very reason, MORE, REALTORS®developed their own proprietary software to analyze and report the market data (the same MLS data as the aforementioned report was based upon) and present it in a manner that more accurately depicts the market conditions and is more applicable than many of the other reports out there.
Before I go further, I’m not picking on anyone reporting market information, as most are simply reporting the data that is available to them and doing so in a common manner which is to look at data for one specific month (in this case November) and compare it to the same month a year ago. I’m just suggesting that due to fluctuations that can be caused by, for example, weather during the month, the number of Friday’s during the month (a popular day for closings), etc. looking at a single month doesn’t paint a true picture of the market. It also matters what area the data is for, is it the St Louis MSA (which includes 8 counties in Illninois) or the city of St Louis, or some other combination?
As you will see from our STL Market Report™ tables I’ve prepared below, the St Louis real estate market is actually holding fairly steady in terms of sales when we look at the past 12-month period and compare it with the prior 12-month period. In terms of home prices, St Louis home prices have increased about 4% – 5% in the St Louis area, depending on how we look at the area.
A report released by Knock, a company that buys homes, forecasts that, nationally, 77% of current listings will sell below the original list price during the first quarter of 2019 and in St Louis, 82.61% of the listings will sell below list price. The report goes on to forecast that, on average, during the first quarter of 2019 homes in St Louis will sell for 5.2% less than the original list price and will take an average of 22 days to sell.
70% of St Louis Listings Sold For Less Than Original Price During Past 3 Months…
As our exclusive STL Market Chart tables below show, during the past 3 month period, 5,055 of the 7,240 (69.8%) homes that sold in the St Louis 5-County core market, sold for less than the original asking price. Therefore, Knock’s prediction that this percentage hits 82.61% during the coming 3 months is not a stretch. Nearly half (46%) of the 8,883 active listings on the market have already had at least one price reduction.
Every year around this time is when many homeowners that have their homes listed for sale discuss with their agent whether they should just take their home or condo off the market as Christmas approaches, then come back on the market after the beginning of the new year. Many homeowners that are thinking of selling contemplate the same thing trying to decide whether to come on the market before the holidays or wait until after.
It is a well-known fact this is a slower time of the year for the St Louis real estate market, but does that mean it’s so bad that you should remove your listing from the market and take a break? Well, while a lot of people may decide to do this, often because they will have family and friends visiting or staying with them, one can make a decent argument for staying on the market around Christmas if it’s possible.
Homes and condos do sell during Christmas week…
To address the issue of whether it makes sense for a seller to stay on the market over Christmas, I pulled stats for Christmas week last year, to see how many homes and condos went under contract that week. As the MORE, REALTORS® exclusive STL Market Reports™ table shows, there were 291 listings that went under contract Christmas week 2017 in the St Louis 5-County Core real estate market.
There were 9,983 home purchase mortgage loans originated in the St Louis metro area during the 3rd quarter of this year, a decline of 5% from the prior quarter and a decline of 3% from a year ago, according to a report just released by ATTOM Data Services. This is the lowest number of home purchase loan originations for the 3rd quarter since 2015 when there were 9,731 home purchase mortgage loans originated. As the historical table below shows, the peak for loan originations in St Louis was in the 3rd quarter of 2005 when there were 17,698 purchase mortgage loans originated.
St Louis MSA Purchase Mortgage Originations
St Louis MSA Historical Purchase Mortgage Originations
The St Louis real estate market is lagging a little behind last year in terms of home sales and the inventory of homes for sale is on the rise. While some of this is, of course, seasonal, perhaps some of it could be related to home prices increasing over the past year or so at a higher rate than the historical “norm” as well as may be reflective of the higher interest rates we are experiencing now versus last year.
While it’s still a seller’s market in some areas of St Louis and in some price ranges, our market indicators have more markets shifting to a buyers market or, at a minimum, a changing market. Seller’s won’t like to see this but it could be some welcome relief for home buyers that may be growing weary from bidding wars, getting beat out on the home they want and the like.
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.
You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
There were 37,721 homes sold in the St Louis metropolitan area during the past 12 months as reported byMORE, REALTORS. Of those, as the chart below illustrates, conventional financing made up the lion’s share of the sales. Conventional mortgages accounted for 18,967 home sales (50.3%), followed by cash transactions with no financing that accounted for 7,109 sales (18.9%), then 6,353 (16.8%) sales with FHAloans, 2,333 (6.2%) with VA loans, and 770 (2.0%) sales financed with USDA financing. The remaining 5.8% of the home sales were financed with one of roughly 30 other lessor popular financing methods.
St Louis MSA Home Sales By Financing Type – Past 12 Months
There were 752 home “flips” in the St Louis metro area during the third quarter of this year, representing 6.5% of the homes sold during the period, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Research. This is a decline of 7.4% from the prior quarter and a decline of 2.0% from the same quarter last year.
What is meant by “flipped” home?
ATTOM Data considers any home or condo that was sold during the third quarter of this year in an arms-length sale that had previously had an arms-length sale within the prior 12 months as well as a “flip”. Since homeowners don’t tend to buy a home only to turn around and resell it within a year, when this does occur it is typically the result of an investor buying a property, renovating it, then reselling it.
It’s no secret that home sales slow down this time of year in St Louis however, there are still plenty of cities in St Louis where homes are selling quickly! As the table below shows, Rock Hill is at the top of our Fastest Selling Cities list with the current supply of homes for sale being on the market for an average of just 29 days. Of the 10 cities on our list, all but one are in St Louis County and, of the 9 in St Louis County, 5 are in North County.
St Louis’ Fastest Selling Cities
(click on the table to see the complete table with current data)
What is the housing market like in St Louis’ Fastest Selling City – Rock Hill?
The impact of the strong economy the U.S. is currently experiencing can be seen in the National Association of REALTORS (NAR) 2018 Member Profile. In the NAR report when agents were asked about the most important factor limiting potential home-buyer clients from completing a transaction, the answers given in the most recent survey show a strong improvement in economy-related issues from the 2015 survey. For example, below are some highlights from the survey for the most important factor limiting potential buyers in completing a transaction:
Difficulty in obtaining financing dropped from 26% in 2015 to just 12% in 2018
Low consumer confidence dropped from 5% in 2015 to just 1% in 2018
Ability to sell existing home dropped from 6% in 2015 to 3% in 2018.
The median price of homes sold in Franklin County during the 12 month period ended October 31, 2018, was $150,000 according to the STL Market Report™ from MORE™, REALTORS®. As the STL Market Report™ below shows, this is exactly the same as during the prior 12-month period. During the most recent 12-month period, there were 1,282 homes sold in Franklin County, a decrease of 2.29% from the prior 12-month period. There is currently a 4.13 month supply of homes for sale in Franklin County and listings have been on the market a median time of 98 days.
The median price of homes sold in Jefferson County during the 12 month period ended October 31, 2018, was $169,000 according to the STL Market Report™ from MORE™, REALTORS®. As the STL Market Report™ below shows, this is an increase in the median price of homes sold of 2.42% from the prior 12-month period. During the most recent 12-month period, there were 3,407 homes sold in Jefferson County, a decrease of 0.7% from the prior 12-month period. There is currently a 2.78 month supply of homes for sale in Jefferson County and listings have been on the market a median time of 119 days.
The median price of homes sold in St Charles County during the 12 month period ended October 31, 2018, was $230,000 according to the STL Market Report™ from MORE™, REALTORS®. As the STL Market Report™ below shows, this is an increase in the median price of homes sold of 4.55% from the prior 12-month period. During the most recent 12-month period, there were 6,081 homes sold in St Charles County, an increase of 1.11% from the prior 12-month period. There is currently a 2.52 month supply of homes for sale in St Charles County and listings have been on the market a median time of 74 days.
Thanksgiving began in the U.S. in 1789 after the issuance of the proclamation below made by President George Washington and was initially a harvest festival. Thanksgiving did not actually become a federal holiday in the U.S. until 1864 when President Abraham Lincoln proclaimed it “as a day of thanksgiving and praise to Almighty God, the beneficent Creator, and Ruler of the Universe.”.
Thanksgiving Proclamation
By the President of the United States of America, a Proclamation.
Whereas it is the duty of all nations to acknowledge the providence of Almighty God, to obey His will, to be grateful for His benefits, and humbly to implore His protection and favor; and—Whereas both Houses of Congress have, by their joint committee, requested me “to recommend to the people of the United States a day of public thanksgiving and prayer, to be observed by acknowledging with grateful hearts the many and signal favors of Almighty God, especially by affording them an opportunity peaceably to establish a form of government for their safety and happiness:” Continue reading Happy Thanksgiving! How It Began…
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