The St Louis real estate market is slowing down somewhat as it does every year around this time, but the market still looks good. Low-interest rates continue to offset some of the cost of the increases in home prices that have occurred. Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.
You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
The St Louis foreclosure rate during the 3rd quarter of this year was 1 in every 766 housing units, a decline of nearly 1% from the prior quarter and a decline of over 27% from a year ago, according to data just released from ATTOM Data Solutions. As the table below shows, 6 of the counties in the St Louis MSA saw an increase in the foreclosure rate during the 3rd quarter from the prior quarter and only two counties saw an increase from a year ago.
St Louis is the top marketing for flipping homes, according to an article published yesterday on Realtor.com. It’s not all just flipping activity however in the article a very notable and credible St Louis industry source (unabashed self-promotion) stated that “flipping is more common in homes in the $175,000-plus range, while many of those listed for $125,000 and less are being turned into rentals, says Norman.”
The Realtor.com article gave an overview of the market data I produced for them so I wanted to share the market data behind the overview.
St Louis Neighborhoods With Large Investor Presence:
63137 Zip Code Area (Bellefontaine Neighbors/Glasgow Village) – 43.5% of housing units are investor-owned
63135 Zip Code Area (Ferguson) – 39.2% of housing units are investor-owned
63033 Zip Code Area (Florissant Area) – 21.8% of housing units are investor-owned
Home sales in the St Louis 5-County Core Market for the 12-month period ended September 30th, 2019 were down just over 3% from the same period a year ago. During the same period, home prices in the St Louis 5-County Core market increased a little over 5% as the report below from MORE, REALTORS shows.
Inventory of homes for sale still favors sellers…
As the report shows, there is just a 2.44 month supply of homes for sale in the St Louis core market which means the St Louis market is still very much a seller’s market.
One story homes, often referred to as “ranch-style”, have always been popular, especially with ageing home buyers that don’t want stairs. With a large number of baby boomers that have become empty nesters, many of them are downsizing and one-story homes are often their style of choice as well. Whether this demand is the reason or not, one-story homes in St Charles County have outpaced 2-story homes in terms of home price appreciation over the past 10-years.
As the charts below show, one-story homes in St Charles County show, have increased in price from a median sold price of $116 per sqft. 10 years ago to $156 per sqft today, an increase of 34.5% during the period. As the second chart below shows, 2-story homes during the same period increased from $94 per sqft. to $124 per sqft, an increase of 32.0%.
In terms of the median price homes sold for, there was an even bigger gap between 1-story and 2-story homes. One-story homes increased in price from $164,5000 to $229,000, an increase of 39.2% and 2-story homes from $210,000 t $275,000, an increase of 31.0%.
For the 12-month period ended September 30, 2019, there were 26,775 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market, down 3.2% from the same period a year ago, according to the latest data from MORE, REALTORS. As the chart below illustrates, home sales in St Louis have, for the most part, been trending downward since peaking in May 2018 with 27,830 homes sold in the 12-month period ending that month.
The MLS Technology and Emerging Issues Advisory Board, of the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), proposed a rule change that is sparking some controversy among its’ members. The proposed “Clear Cooperation Policy” requires that all listings be put in the MLS within 24 hours of “marketing a property to the public“. The policy defines “public marketing” as including, but not limited to, “flyers displayed in windows, yard signs, digital marketing on public-facing websites, brokerage website displays (including IDX and VOW), digital communications marketing (email blasts), multi-brokerage listing sharing networks, and applications available to the general public”.
But, isn’t that how it is now?
Many consumers may having been thinking that this is how it was all along, that new listings were required to go into the MLS but, that is not currently the case. Presently (and going back to the beginning of the MLS here in St Louis, I believe), agents have been able to determine the best marketing methods for their client, as well as allow their client input as to whether they wanted their listing in the MLS immediately, after a period of time or even not at all.
The question in my headline is one of those questions that in the real estate community, and with most homeowners, would elicit a response something like “the quality of the school district has a major impact on the housing market, duh!”. While I don’t think anyone would argue that having quality public education available to everyone in all areas is important, I’m just talking data here and looking at it from the real estate perspective. So, with that in mind, I decided to use one of the reports produced by proprietary software created by MORE, REALTORS® and based upon MLS home sales and price data, to compare home prices and sales in two of the best St Louis area public school districts to two of the worst (at least according to many lists of best and worst schools out there) to see how they compare.
For two of the best districts, I chose Clayton and Kirkwood and for two fo the worst, I chose Riverview Gardens and the City of St Louis. The results were interesting and, somewhat surprising perhaps. The reports below have all the data, but here is a summary of the comparison:
Home sales for the most recent 12-month period vs the prior 12-month period were up slightly (0.20%) in Riverview/St Louis districts and were down 15.66% for Clayton/Kirkwood.
Home prices for the same period increased by 5.36% in Riverview/St Louis and by 2.41% for Clayton/Kirkwood
Listing inventory for Riverview/St Louis districts is at 2.31 months and for Clayton/Kirkwood is at 2.49 months.
By the way, if you would like to see reports like this for any St Louis area school district, county, zip or city, contact me and I’ll be happy to send it to you.
New home construction in St. Louis continues to decline with 4,244 new home permits issued in August 2019 for the St Louis area, a decline of 9.74% from a year ago when there were 4,702 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri.
As the table below shows, 5 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago. Franklin County has suffered the biggest loss at 44.13% and Warren County has seen the largest increase at 15.57%.
Home affordability improved in the St. Louis metro area during the 3rd quarter, with 4 of the 7 largest counties seeing an improvement in their affordability index from the prior quarter and 5 of the 7 seeing an improvement in affordability from a year ago, according to the latest data from ATTOM Data Research.
The greatest improvement in affordability was in Franklin County.
As the table below shows, Franklin County saw a 12% improvement in housing affordability from the prior quarter and an 11% improvement from a year ago. Jefferson, St Charles and St Clair (IL) County saw improvements in affordability from the prior quarter as well.
St Louis County suffered the greatest decline in housing affordability.
St Louis County saw affordability decline 12% from the prior quarter and 10% from a year ago.
Home prices are outpacing wages in 5 of the 7 counties covered…
Homes in Crestwood sold faster in the past 30 days than in any other city in the St Louis MSA, according to the latest data available from MORE, REALTORS®. Homes that closed in the past 30 days in Crestwood were on the market an average of just 21 days.
As the list below shows, 7 of the 10 fastest-sold cities in the St Louis MSA were in St Louis County, 2 in St Charles County and 1 in Jefferson County.
Fastest SOLD Cities In The St Louis MSA In Past 30 Days
Yesterday, someone shared with me an article that appeared on CBS News online about a couple, Tyler and Elisha Hessel, that discovered the house they purchased had previously been the subject of a meth lab seizure. The home, at 7218 Valley Drive in Barnhart, Missouri, was purchased by the Hessel’s in January of 2018. According to the article, Elisha is expecting a baby and, earlier this year, the results of some standard pregnancy-related tests showed the baby tested positive for amphetamines. This led to the Hessel’s discovering that the home they purchased was on a list of Meth Lab Seizures from a bust back on October 3, 2013. The article goes on to state that the Hessel’s have been forced to move out of the home for health reasons and a Go Fund Me campaign has been set up for them at https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-tyler-and-elisha-hessel.
Meth Labs have been a real problem in Jefferson County
There were 902 homes “flipped” in the St Louis metro area during the second quarter of 2019, or 7.5% of the total number of homes sold in the St Louis metro area during the quarter, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Solutions. This is a decline of 12% from the prior quarter but is an 8% increase from the prior year. As our table below shows, on a national level, house flipping accounted for just 5.9% of the homes sold during the 2nd quarter of this year, which is an 18% decrease from the quarter before and a 9% increase from a year ago.
Definition of a “flipped” home…
For the purposes of this report, a flipped home is considered to be any home or condo that was sold during the first quarter of this year in an arms-length sale that had previously had an arms-length sale within the prior 12 months. Since homeowners don’t tend to buy a home only to turn around and resell it within a year, when this does occur it is typically the result of an investor buying a property, renovating it, then reselling it.
During August there was one foreclosure action for every 2,040 housing units in the St Louis MSA, a decline of 6.43% from the month before and a decline of 32.78% from a year ago, according to data just released from ATTOM Data Solutions. As the table below shows, only 4 of the counties in the St Louis MSA saw an increase in the foreclosure rate for August 2019 from the month before, but all counties saw a decline from August 2018.
Yesterday, I shared information showing the home sales trend for the 5-county core St Louis housing market declined 3% but today am going to drill down a little further into the data. I wanted to look at the home sales trend in the 5 individual counties that make up the core market to see which are performing better or worse than the others.
All 5 counties had a decline in their home sales trend in August that was similar to the 5-County Core market, however, the extent of the change varied somewhat. St Charles County’s home sales trend, as our chart below shows, with 5,612 homes sold in the 12-month period ended August 31st, fell back to a level not seen since November 2015 when there were 5,545 homes sold in the prior 12-month period.
St Charles County – Home Sales Trend – Past 5 Years
For the 5-county core St Louis housing market, there were 26.047 homes sold during the 12-month period ended August 31, 2019, a decline of 3% from the 12-month trend for the prior month. As the chart (a proprietary product developed by MORE, REALTORS to help keep its agents and clients on top of market conditions) below shows, there were 27,753 homes sold during the 12-month period ended August 31st of 2018, so the current period sales of 26,047 homes represents a 6.1% decrease from the same period a year ago.
St Louis 5-County Core Market – Home Sales Trend – Past 5 Years
You are probably saying I’m nuts to be saying that a home in St Louis costs less today than it did 13 years ago, back in 2006, but, note I said the “real cost” of a home. Since nearly all people buying a typical home in St Louis are going to do so with a mortgage, I think to really determine the cost of a home, and certainly, it’s affordability, we have to look deeper than just the price. Therefore, as the table below shows, I analyzed the cost of a home in St Louis during two periods of time, the most recent 5-year period and the 5-year period leading up to and including 2006 (the last year of the boom before the bust). In determining the real cost, I looked at the median price of homes sold but then also the mortgage interest rate at the time and the resulting payment.
As the table illustrates, the current cost of a median-priced home in St Louis, from a mortgage payment perspective, dropped 5.5% from a year ago thanks to lower mortgage interest rates which more than offset the increase in home prices. The impact of interest rates on the true cost of a home is further illustrated by looking that the change in the mortgage payment for a median-priced home in St Louis from 2014 to today which was an increase of 17.8% over the period. However, the median price of homes sold during the same period increased by 23.4%, over 30% more than the payment increased!
The real cost of a St Louis home today is even less than in 2006
Now, to go one step further, if you look at the second table below, which is for the period of July 2001 through July 2006, you will see that, while the median price of homes in St Louis was lower, mortgage interest rates were much higher. In fact, the median mortgage interest rate from 2001 through 2006 was 6.245% while it was just 4.0% from 2014 through 2019. This resulted in the mortgage payment of $1,084.26 on a median-priced home in St Louis in 2006, $76.56 per month more (7.5%) than today’s mortgage payment on a median-priced home in St Louis.
The St Louis real estate market is still going strong and interest rates are dirt cheap! Not much has changed over the past few months in the St Louis housing market in terms of home prices and sales, prices continue to rise at normal, healthy rates and sales continue along at a rate a little shy of last year. What has changed dramaticaly over the past 9 or 10 months however, are interest rates. The have dropped by a third and in this months market update video I do a little math and show just how much that impacts home buyers in a positive way! Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.
You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
There are 100,478 residential properties in the City of St Louis, 7,604 of which (7.6%), are vacant properties according to the vacancy rate report for the 3rd quarter of 2019 by ATTOM Data Research. The other St Louis area county with a vacancy rate higher than the rate for the St Louis MSA as a whole of 2.9% is St Louis County where 3.1% of the residential properties are vacant.
St Louis MSA Vacant Property And Investor Owned Property Q3 2019
There are 64,645 residential properties in Franklin County, 32,625 of which (50.5%), are investment properties according to the vacancy rate report for the 3rd quarter of 2019 by ATTOM Data Research. The other St Louis area county with a percentage of investment properties higher than the rate for the St Louis MSA as a whole of 23.8% is the city of St Louis where 41.5% of the residential properties are investor-owned.
St Louis MSA Vacant Property And Investor Owned Property Q3 2019
St Louis may be the 8th most affordable metro area in the country to buy a home, but it also has areas where home prices are much higher as well. The median price of homes sold in the St Louis metro area during the past 12-months is $184,500 however the average price of homes sold within the past 12-months has exceeded this in 85 of the 205 municipalities within the St Louis MSA.
Below is our list of the 30 cities with the highest average price of homes sold during the past 12 months. St Louis County has the majority of the most expensive cities at 22 (although, in all fairness, St Louis County is also chopped up into a ridiculous number municipalities) followed by 7 in St Charles County and 1 in Warren County.
During the 2nd quarter of this year, the homeownership rate for the St Louis MSA was 68.0% giving St Louis the 21st highest homeownership rate of the 75 largest MSA’s in the country, according to the latest date from the U.S. Census Bureau. This is a move up from the prior quarter when St Louis had the 26th highest homeownership rate.
As the table below shows, the Toledo, Ohio MSA had the highest homeownership rate during the quarter at 77.5% and for the 2nd quarter in a row, Fresno, CA MSA had the lowest at 45.0%.
The rate of foreclosure in St Louis during the 2nd quarter of this year was 1 foreclosure filing for every 759 housing units, a decrease of 15.68% from the prior quarter and a decline of 18.54% from the 2nd quarter of 2018, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Research. St Louis has the 73rd highest foreclosure rate of the 220 MSA’s ranked in the report.
As the table below shows, only three counties in the St Louis MSA saw an increase in foreclosure activity this quarter from the prior quarter and, with the exception of Lincoln County, none saw an increase from a year ago.
St Louis MSA Foreclosure Rate By County – 2nd Quarter 2019
Yesterday I identified the Zip Code in St Charles County with the hottest real estate market so today I’ll do the same for Jefferson County. I’ll save the long explanation I gave yesterday though about the importance of not looking at just one piece of data, how it takes a qualified agent with good data to really determine the health of a market, etc. If you missed that, you can get it in yesterdays article.
What is the hottest market in Jefferson County today?
Based upon some of the data contained in the charts and tables below, I would have to say that overall, the 63012 market is the hottest today. As the tables and charts show, the 63012 zip area (Pevely, Barnhart, and Imperial) is number 1 on the fastest-selling zip list for Jefferson County at 40 days and has just over a 2-month supply of homes for sale. In addition, as the chart at the bottom shows, our exclusive home sales and price trend chart shows home sales in the 63012 zip code area trending upward while most zip codes in the St Louis area are trending downward.
Which Zip Code in St Charles County is home to the hottest real estate market today? Well, it depends…
63376 based upon the zip code where homes are selling the fastest
63376 based upon where the inventory of homes for sale is the lowest
63367 based upon trending home sales
63341 based upon home price increases over the past year
I could go on, but the point I wanted to illustrate here is that there is no one piece of data, or one list or chart that is going to accurately depict what the “best” market is, or even the condition of the real estate market. To accurately determine what a particular local real estate market is like one really must examine the health of the market looking at many different factors. Additionally, what is a “good” market to one person, may not be good for another, so it is also important to understand the wants and needs of the person asking the question.
It is for the aforementioned reasons, as well as others I won’t elaborate on here, why, even though I love technology, automation and “platforms” (today’s buzz word in the tech world), I think real estate agents continue to be an absolutely necessary part of the home buying and selling process today and will remain so for many years to come. A qualified, professional agent will gather and analyze data such as I’ve presented here, then apply it to their clients’ situation and then determine the best price, course of action, etc.
The other point I hoped to make here was to encourage home buyers, sellers and investors not to put too much weight on one piece of data being reported in the media, but instead seek out a professional that can provide you with a comprehensive view of the market.
But, I digress, so back to the question, what is the hottest market in St Charles County today?
Yesterday afternoon, the Federal Reserve released a statement that was quite a vote of confidence for how the economy is doing. The Fed Reserve’s statement included “…the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low.” and went on to say “Market-based measures of inflationcompensation remain low;”.
As a result of the positive economic conditions, the Federal Open Market Committee announced it would lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent. The committee went on to give a very positive outlook on the future economy as well saying that “sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes…”.
Will the move by the Fed Reserve cause lower mortgage interest rates?
It’s hard to say if this announcement will prompt immediate lower interest rates as the mortgage market takes a little longer view of things. However, while we don’t know if mortgage rates will decline or, if so by how much, I think, absent some major shift or change in the economy, it is safe to say that mortgage rates are not going up at this time or in the very near future.
Mortgage interest rates have been at historic lows for years…
The median rent for counties in the St Louis area in 2010 varied from a low of $620 in Franklin County to a high of $819 in St Charles County. By 2017 rents had increased to $736 and $993 respectively in those counties, according to the latest data available from the U.S. Census Bureau. As the table shows below, the increase in rents from 2010 to 2017 in St Louis area counties varied from 18.3% to 23.0% with a median increase of 18.75%.
For homeowners, the median cost of a mortgage in 2010 ranged from a low of $1,168 in Franklin County to a high of $1,519 in St Charles County. In 2017 those median mortgage payments had changed little with the median mortgage in Franklin County coming in at $1,197 and for St Charles County, $1,521. As the table below shows, the increase in mortgage payments during this period ranged from a decrease of 1.3% to an increase of 3.1% with the median being a 1.2% increase.
Thanks to a strong economy and lower interest rates, homeowners come out on top!
So while rents increased a median of 18.75% from 2010 to 2017, mortgage payments increased just 1.2%, making the increase in median rent 15.6 times higher than the increase in mortgages during the period. Homeowners also benefited through increased equity with a median increase of 26.75% in the prices of homes sold from 2010 to 2017.
St Louis Area Median Rent and Mortgage Costs 2010-2017
The number of housing units in St Charles County grew from a total of 141,355 units in 2010 to 156,324 units in 2018, for an increase of 10.6%, according to the latest data available from the U.S. Census Bureau. As the table below shows, during this same period, the number of housing units in St Lous County and St Louis City remained the same. The surrounding counties, Franklin, Jefferson and Warren, all saw fairly significant increases.
Estimated Number of Housing Units By St Louis Area County – 2010-2018
The St Louis housing market has been low on inventory of homes for sale in many areas and many price ranges for the past couple of years. Even as the summer market is down to the last few weeks, we still find the market short on listings in many markets. With the inventory of homes for sale low, the market definitely favors sellers.
Our firm publishes a list showing the current inventory of homes for sale (in terms of months supply based upon the most recent sales trend) and below I show the top 10 St Louis area zip codes in terms of low inventory. As the table below shows, the Maryland Heights area (63043 zip) has the lowest inventory with what equates to about a 2 week supply of homes for sale and number 10 on the list, the 63101 zip in the city of St Charles, has just a 1-month supply.
Historically, a 6-month supply of homes for sale has been considered by many in the industry to be a balanced market not favoring buyers or sellers. Of the 96 zip codes contained in the St Louis 5-County Core market, the list below represents, only 13 of the zip codes (13.5%) have a listing supply of 6 months or more.
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
St Louis 5-County Core Market Months Supply Of Active Listings By Zip
The St Louis real estate market continues to show strength and favors sellers, however, buyers have shown they are price-sensitive.
While most of the St Louis market remains a seller’s market based upon the lack of inventory for sale, this does not mean (and the data backs it up) that it’s a blank check for sellers. Buyers in the market appear to be savvy and are price sensitive. In fact, one frustration I hear from agents with over-priced listings is that, not only do they only have few showings, they are not receiving offers. I think the issue is buyers don’t want to tie themselves up negotiating with a seller that, from the outset, seems unreasonable for fear that while tied up with them a real opportunity will come along and they will miss out. Therefore, for sellers to take full advantage of this seller’s market, they need to price their home appropriately from the start.
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.
You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
The St Louis real estate market continues to show strength and favors sellers, however, buyers have shown they are price-sensitive.
While most of the St Louis market remains a seller’s market based upon the lack of inventory for sale, this does not mean (and the data backs it up) that it’s a blank check for sellers. Buyers in the market appear to be savvy and are price sensitive. In fact, one frustration I hear from agents with over-priced listings is that, not only do they only have few showings, they are not receiving offers. I think the issue is buyers don’t want to tie themselves up negotiating with a seller that, from the outset, seems unreasonable for fear that while tied up with them a real opportunity will come along and they will miss out. Therefore, for sellers to take full advantage of this seller’s market, they need to price their home appropriately from the start.
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.
You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
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