I’ll concede the fact that not everyone is as much of a data geek as I am and, in fact, a more accurate statement would probably be that most people are not, including the majority of home buyers and sellers. Sure, home buyers and sellers are interested in home prices and what the potential value of the home is they are looking to buy or sell, but most leave the real data analysis to their agent. After all, part of being a professional real estate agent is knowing the market as well as knowing how to research the market and apply market data to their client’s situation.
However, don’t assume all real estate agents are created equal in this regard and that they all know the market as well as they should or do the research they should. There are many great agents that do these things very well but there are a bunch, probably an equal number, if not more, that don’t. Even the agents that do it well are still limited to the data resources they have available to them.
Today, as we celebrate the life of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. who is best known as a leader in the Civil Rights movement, I wanted to look at how his efforts also ultimately resulted in the Fair Housing Act, which sought to end discrimination in housing.
Through the efforts of the civil rights movement, Dr. King and others were able to get the attention of our nation resulting in President John F. Kennedy, in a nationally televised address on June 6, 1963, urging the nation to ” take action toward guaranteeing equal treatment of every American regardless of race.” Shortly after his address to the nation, President Kennedy proposed that Congress consider civil rights legislation that would address rights in many areas such as voting, public accommodations, school desegregation but not housing at the time. Even though President Kennedy was assassinated on November 22, 1963, his efforts beforehand still resulted in the Civil Rights Act of 1964 when, then President, Lyndon Johnson, signed into law on July 2, 1964.
The Civil Rights Act of 1964 prohibited discrimination in public places, provided for integration of schools and made employment discrimination illegal, however, it did not address housing.
Four years later came the Civil Rights Act of 1968, which is also referred to, and more commonly known, as the “Fair Housing Act of 1968″, which expanded the original civil rights act to include prohibiting discrimination concerning the sale, rental, and financing of housing based on race, religion, national origin or sex. President Lyndon Johnson signed the Fair Housing Act into law on April 11, 1968, one week after Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. was assassinated.
The St Louis real estate market had a strong finish in 2019! One of the many great things for the St Louis housing market about a strong finish in 2019 is that 2020 begins strongly as well! January will be a key month in terms of whether the trend will continue or whether December’s uptick was an isolated event.
Another encouraging thing about the real estate market is that long term mortgage interest rates remain low! See in the video just how powerful this is! How a house today will actually cost you less than a little over a year ago, even after factoring in home price appreciation!
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.
You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
Foreclosure rates and mortgage delinquency rates have steadily declined over the past couple of years as the housing market, as well as the overall economy, have both continued to improve and thrive. Nonetheless, foreclosures still take place and during 2019 the St Louis MSA had the 8th highest foreclosure rate of the 20 largest MSAs, according to the latest data released by Attom Data Solutions.
As the table below shows, during 2019, in the St Louis MSA there was 1 foreclosure action for every 232 housing units. Philadelphia, PA, had the highest foreclosure rate of the 20-largest MSAs with one foreclosure action for every 133 housing units and San Francisco had the lowest with one foreclosure action for every 631 housing units.
2019 Foreclosure Rates – 20 Largest MSAs
Copyright 2020 – St Louis Real Estate News – All rights reserved – Data Source ATTOM Data Solutions
There were 3,637 condos sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market during 2019, a decline of 2.28% from 2018 when there were 3,722 condos sold. As I reported yesterday, 2019 St Louis home sales were down 1.18% in 2019, just over half of the rate of decline of condo sales.
As the STL Market Report below shows (available exclusively through MORE, REALTORS), the median price of condos sold during 2019 was $155,000, an increase of 4.15% from the year before. In contrast, home prices increased by 5.85% during the same period.
Going into 2020, the inventory of homes for sale remains low and favors sellers. Currently, the supply of homes for sale is just over 2 months.
STL Market Report For The St Louis 5-County Core Condo Market
There were 27,076 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market during 2019, a decline of 1.18% from 2018 when there were 27,399 homes sold. As the STL Market Report below shows (available exclusively through MORE, REALTORS), the median price of homes sold during 2019 was $208,000, an increase of 5.85% from the year before.
Going into 2020, the inventory of homes for sale remains low and favors sellers. Currently, the supply of homes for sale is just over 2 months.
STL Market Report For The St Louis 5-County Core Market
The outlook for the St Louis real estate market for the new year looks pretty good. Watch for the release of our St Louis Housing Market Forecast for 2020 coming out in the next few days to get some insight into this year’s real estate market here in St Louis.
The maximum loan amount for an FHA-Insured home loan on January 1, 2020, will increase from $314.827 to $331,760 for a single-family home purchased in the St Louis metro area. FHA insured home loans have lower credit standards than a typical conventional loan, require a downpayment of just 3.5% and allow all of the purchasers closing costs to be paid by the seller (up to a limit) thereby extending the opportunity of homeownership to a wider audience.
Below are all of the FHA Mortgage Limits for the St Louis MSA for 2020:
One-Family dwellings – $331,760
Two-Family dwellings – $424,800
Three-Family dwellings – $513,450
Four-Family dwellings – $638,100
To find out more about FHA home loans, or to get pre-approved for an FHA home loan click on the button below to connect with Mike McCarthy.
Buying a home for veterans will get a little easier come January 1, 2020, especially those veterans moving up to a more expensive home, as a result of the Blue Water Navy Veterans Act of 2019 signed into law by President Trump in June 2019. The primary focus of the Act was to provide disability benefits to veterans who served in Vietnam, it also made significant changes to the VA Home Loan benefit available to all veterans. The VA home loan changes go into effect on January 1, 2020. Below are highlights of the changes to the VA home loan benefit:
Conforming Loan Limits – There will no longer be a limit, or cap, on the amount for a no-downpayment home loan to a veteran.
VA funding fee increase – The VA charges a funding fee to support the VA home loan program. The fee is currently 0.15% for Veterans and Servicemembers and on January 1st will increase to 0.30%.
Purple Heart – The VA funding fee will be waived for active Servicemembers who have earned a Purple Heart.
Native America Direct Loan – As of January 1st, the existing cap of $80,000 will be removed for Veterans using their entitlement for a VA Native American Direct loan to purchase (or build) a home on Federal trust land.
To find out more about the changes to the VA home loan program, click on the button below to connect with Mike McCarthy,
Homes in the Lincoln County zip code of 63362 sold the fastest in the past 30-days with an average time to sell of just 40 days, according to the latest data available from MORE, REALTORS®.
As the list below shows, 4 of the remaining 10 fastest-sold zips in the St Louis MSA were in St Charles County, 3 in St Louis County, 1 in Franklin County and 1 in St Clair County, IL.
Fastest SOLD Zip Codes In The St Louis MSA In Past 30 Days
After peaking in May 2018 with 27,829 homes sold in the prior 12-months, the St Louis home sales trend has trended downward to 26,830 homes sold in the 12-month period ended November 30, 2019. This marks the lowest home sales trend for the St Louis 5-County core market in over three years.
In spite of this statistical fact, it should be noted that the difference in home sales for the 12-month period ended November 30, 2019, from the same period a year ago, is just under 3%, so it is a pretty modest decline.
St Louis 5-County Core Market Home Sales Trend – Past 5 Years
Wishing you and your family and loved ones a very Merry and Blessed Christmas!
“And so it was, that, while they were there, the days were accomplished that she should be delivered. And she brought forth her firstborn son, and wrapped him in swaddling clothes, and laid him in a manger; because there was no room for them in the inn.” Luke 2:6-7
The home sales trend was, as our chart below illustrates, on the decline in St Charles County since summer last year but then, in October reversed course. Now, for the second-consecutive month, the St Charles County home sales trend is on the rise possibly confirming that September 2019 was the bottom, with 5,761 homes sold in the 12-month period ending in September. For the 12-month period ended November 30, 2019, there were 5,814 homes sold or just under 1% more than when sales hit the bottom in September. The period ended in November saw just 23 more homes sold then the period ended in October, but it still sent the trend upward nonetheless.
The gains are modest so time will tell if the trend will hold course….
With such small gains, it won’t take much to stop this upward trend in home sales, but, within the next two months, we should know for sure if the upward movement in home sales can last.
Most home buyers and sellers understand the seasonality of the residential real estate market with spring being the “hot” market and winter being a slow one. This often leads to many sellers with homes that have not sold, opting to take them off the market until after the holidays with the plan to come back when the market gets better. Is this a good plan though? As a seller are you missing out on selling your home by taking your home off the market at a time when there is so little competition and at a time that the buyers that are out looking are usually very serious?
Well, first and foremost, if, as a seller, you are taking a break from dealing with keeping your home show-ready, making it available for showings, etc so that you can enjoy time with your family and friends then by all means that is a great plan. However, if you are taking a listing hiatus because of “the market” or “the time of year”, you may want to rethink it.
715 homes and condos went under contract within a week of Christmas last year…
As the table below shows, there were 715 homes that went under contract within a week of Christmas last year (either in the week proceeding or week after). So, during what many consider a “dead” time for real estate, quite a few homes sold. During 2018, there were a total of 31,121 homes and condos sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market so, if we were to simply determine on average how many homes sold in a two-week period we would come up with 1,196. At 715 sales for this two-week Christmas period, that is just about 60% of an average two-week period, but it’s still rather significant.
Homes and Condos That Went Under Contract Within 1 Week Of Christmas 2018 In The St Louis 5-County Core
The foreclosure rate for the St Louis MSA during October decreased 6.0 percent from the month and was down 4.2% from November 2018, according to data just released from ATTOM Data Solutions. As the table below shows, there were, like last month, some mixed results. For example, St Charles County saw a 20% increase in foreclosures from the month before while the City of St Louis saw a 27% decrease from the month before. The U.S. as a whole saw a bigger decline in foreclosure activity than the St Louis MSA did.
There were 762 homes “flipped” in the St Louis metro area during the third quarter of 2019, or 6.3% of the total number of homes sold in the St Louis metro area during the quarter, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Solutions. This is a decline of 15% from the prior quarter as well as a 5% decrease from the prior year. As our table below shows, on a national level, house flipping accounted for just 5.4% of the homes sold during the 3rd quarter of this year, which is a 9% decrease from the quarter before and a 4% increase from a year ago.
Definition of a “flipped” home…
For the purposes of this report, a flipped home is considered to be any home or condo that was sold during the first quarter of this year in an arms-length sale that had previously had an arms-length sale within the prior 12 months. Since homeowners don’t tend to buy a home only to turn around and resell it within a year, when this does occur it is typically the result of an investor buying a property, renovating it, then reselling it.
The home sales trend in St Charles County peaked in April 2017 with 6,118 homes sold in the 12-month period ended April 30, 2017. Since then, the home sales trend fell to closer to the 6,000 home mark until hitting a near peak again in August 2018 with 6,111 homes sold in the 12 month period ending that month. After that, the home sales trend in St Charles County has fairly consistently trended downward until hitting bottom in September with 5,759 homes sold in the 12-month period ended September 30, 2019, nearly a 6% fall in home sales from the recent peak. This marked the lowest home sales trend for St Charles County since April 2016.
The St Charles County home sales trend has reversed course…
The good news is, for the past two months, home sales in St Charles County, as the chart below illustrates, have trended upward hitting 5,809 homes sold in the 12-month period ended November 30, 2019, a 1.2% increase in the trend from August 2019.
The good news just keeps coming for the residential real estate industry! The most recent is from a report just released by CoreLogic showing the mortgage delinquency rate in the U.S. was at 3.8%, the lowest rate in at least 20 years! In addition, not one state in the country had an increase in overall delinquency rates in September.
Foreclosure Inventory Reaches Low as well…
The foreclosure inventory rate for September was 0.4%, another 20+ year low!
Between low, low-interest rates and the seasonally low home prices, there is no better time to buy a home! Just like every year, home prices are declining and will continue to decline over the next few weeks until they hit their “winter bottom” and then start the climb back to spring prices. All the while, mortgage interest rates remain low, giving you more buying power than a year ago, even at the higher home prices!
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.
You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
New home construction in St. Louis during October held at about the same trend as September with 4,289 new home permits issued for the 12-month period ended October 31, 2019, a decline of 8.04% from a year ago when there were 4,664 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri. This is about the same as September when the 12-month trend was down 8.05% from the prior 12-month period.
As the table below shows, 4 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago. This is the same as last month, with the same four counties on the decline. For the 9th month in a row, Franklin County suffered the biggest loss at 41.31%. At the other end of the spectrum, St Charles County had the largest increase at 7.55% and took removed Warren County from the number one slot after Warren County had 9 consecutive months of the highest growth in permits.
Are you one of those people like me that didn’t go out and fight the crowds on Black Friday in search of deals and instead waited until today to catch the Cyber Monday deals online from the comfort of your home or office? Or perhaps you were out Friday shopping and now you are back at it online? In any event, don’t forget that Cyber Monday deals come 7 days a week this time of the year in real estate! That’s right! Like I discussed here on Black Friday, some of the best deals of the year on St Louis real estate occur from now until the end of the year.
As the STL Market Chart (exclusively provided by MORE, REALTORS) below illustrates, in the St Louis 5-County Core market home prices (the red line) peaked in July and, with the exception of a little uptick in August, have trended downward since reaching the lowest point since April of this year. St Louis home sales (the pink line) have shown pretty much the same result, hitting the lowest level in November since February.
It shouldn’t be a surprise…
What is happening in the St Louis real estate market presently does not come as a surprise because home sales are very seasonal and, the seasonal fluctuation we are seeing now, happens every year. This is why I chose a 25-month chart below, so you can see the last year was pretty much the same pattern. also, I wanted to show that prices continued to fall last year until hitting bottom in February of this year and I would expect a similar pattern this year. That does not mean however that you want to wait until February to buy as the prices shown are based upon closed deals. The typical real estate transaction takes 4-6 weeks to close, so those “February” home prices were from sales transactions that originated in December and January for the most part. Therefore, from now until the end of the year the best time to buy a home in St Louis from a value standpoint!
As you get ready to head to the stores today for all those Black Friday bargains, perhaps you should jump on St Louis Real Estate Search and find a few houses to look at as well? Well, if you have been thinking about buying a home, you would do well to buy now rather than wait for spring. As the table below shows, based upon data just released from ATTOM Data Solutions, people in Missouri that buy homes in October, November or December get the best deals of the year! This may account for the fact that there were 25% more homes sold during the 4th quarter than during the 1st quarter.
Now is the BEST time to buy in St Louis!
As the chart at the bottom shows, home prices in St Louis have hit their lowest point during January in 2 of the prior 3 years and in February on the third one. These prices are reported as of the closing of the sale, so if prices are typically the lowest on homes that closed in January, given that the typical sale takes 4-6 weeks to close, that makes from now until the end of the year the best time to buy a home in St Louis from a value standpoint!
Thanksgiving began in the U.S. in 1789 after the issuance of the proclamation below made by President George Washington and was initially a harvest festival. Thanksgiving did not actually become a federal holiday in the U.S. until 1864 when President Abraham Lincoln proclaimed it “as a day of thanksgiving and praise to Almighty God, the beneficent Creator, and Ruler of the Universe.”.
Thanksgiving Proclamation
By the President of the United States of America, a Proclamation.
Whereas it is the duty of all nations to acknowledge the providence of Almighty God, to obey His will, to be grateful for His benefits, and humbly to implore His protection and favor; and—Whereas both Houses of Congress have, by their joint committee, requested me “to recommend to the people of the United States a day of public thanksgiving and prayer, to be observed by acknowledging with grateful hearts the many and signal favors of Almighty God, especially by affording them an opportunity peaceably to establish a form of government for their safety and happiness:” Continue reading “Happy Thanksgiving!“
Annually, the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) does a massive survey of people that purchased and sold a home in the prior year to gather information about them and their transaction. This is done using a 125 question survey that was sent to nearly 160,000 people, in randomly sampled geographic areas, that purchased or sold a home in the prior year. The results are published by NAR in their “Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers“. From this publication, some great information is obtained (in my humble opinion, the best and most accurate information available) about home buyers and sellers as well as the process they went through, the homes they bought or sold as well as about their agent if they used one.
Sellers’ appetite for selling their own homes remains at a near-record low…
As the chart below, which covers the time period from 2001 to 2019, illustrates, the percentage of homes sold using a real estate agent or broker (the blue bars) has increased from 79% in 2001 to 89% in this year’s survey. Meanwhile, the percentage of sellers that sold their own homes “For Sale By Owner” (FSBO) declined from 13% in 2001 to 8% in this year’s survey.
As the table below shows, from MORE, REALTORS® exclusive STL Market Report, the overall St Louis MSA housing market has a current supply of homes for sale equal to just a little over two-and-a-half months making it very much favor sellers. The St Louis 5-County Core market (city of St Louis and counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin) have, as the second table shows, an even lower supply of homes for sale with a 2.32 month supply.
However, as the list at the bottom shows, there are some municipalities within the St Louis area that are buyers markets, 12 in total to be exact. A healthy inventory, one that is considered “balanced” and not favoring buyers or sellers, is generally 5 or 6 months, so to make this list of buyers markets there must be greater than a 6-month supply of home currently for sale. At the top of the list is Pine Lawn a small municipality in northern St Louis county, followed by Swansea IL and then Town and Country. Town and Country with 4 homes sold in the past month and 54 active listings currently has a 13.5 month supply of homes for sale.
In August, the overall mortgage delinquency rate (30 or more days past due) was 3.7% for the U.S. which is a 0.2 percentage point decline from a year ago and is the lowest overall delinquency rate in 14-years, according to date just released by CoreLogic. The delinquency rate for August of 3.7% marks the lowest delinquency rate during the month of August in 20 years. The serious delinquency rate (120+ days late) decline of 1.2% a year ago to just 1.0% in August 2019, nearly a record low. The Foreclosure Rate fell in August 2019 to 0.4% from 0.5% a year ago.
Missouri mortgage delinquency rates are low as well…
During August 2019, the overall mortgage delinquency rate for Missouri was exactly the same as the national rate, 3.7%. The serious delinquency rate in Missouri was 1.1%, just slightly above the national rate, and the foreclosure rate was 0.2%, half of the national rate.
After peaking in May 2018 with 27,829 homes sold in the prior 12-months, the St Louis home sales trend has trended downward until hitting 26,852 homes sold in the 12-month period ended August 31, 2019. However, for the two months since this low, St Louis home sales have trended upward slightly, reaching 26,888 homes sold in the 12-month period ended October 31, 2019.
St Louis 5-County Core Market Home Sales Trend – Past 5 Years
The foreclosure rate for the St Louis MSA during October increased 11.3 percent from the month before however, it was still nearly 25 percent (24.5%) lower than October 2018, according to data just released from ATTOM Data Solutions. As the table below shows, there were some real mixed results this month. For example, St Charles County saw a 150% increase in foreclosures from the month before increasing from 10 in September to 25 in October but is down over 60% from October 2018. The city of St Louis is the only county of significant size in the St Louis MSA that saw both an increase in foreclosures from the month before (65.8^) as well as an increase from a year ago (43.2%).
Yesterday, the board of directors for the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) approved a new policy dubbed the “Clear Cooperation Policy” which goes into effect January 1, 2020, and Multiple Listing Service’s (MLS) have until May 1, 2020, to adopt and implement.
While the vote by the board of directors, 729 in favor of it to 70 opposed, may not reflect it, there is a lot of controversy about this policy among real estate agents and brokers that are members of NAR. The two main changes this new policy bring about are that agents would be mandated to put, for all intents and purposes, 100% of their listings in the MLS system within one business-day of marketing the listing (marketing is defined to include putting a sign in the yard, telling someone about the listing, etc) and “MLS-exempt” listings will no longer be permitted.
Better for the consumer?
Proponents of the new NAR MLS policy say that this will be better for consumers by:
Making all available listings show in the MLS;
Giving more exposure to sellers of their listings by not permitting “MLS exempt”, “off-MLS”, “Coming Soon” or other marketing methods that may not include putting the listing in the MLS, or at least not initially;
Leveling the playing field, making all listings available to all consumers since listings could no longer be marketed through just social media, private networks, etc, but, instead, would be required to be put in the MLS;
Eliminating practices that may violate Fair Housing Laws by limiting what audience a particular listing is exposed to;
Opponents of the new NAR MLS policy argue that it is not better for consumers because:
It eliminates the opportunity for an experienced listing agent to determine, in cooperation with their seller client, the best means and methods to market their home to obtain maximum exposure and the highest price;
Pre-marketing, such as a coming soon promotion on social media before the listing is ready to go in the MLS in an effort to generate buzz and hype over the listing, would be prohibited. This is a method of marketing that, in our current low-inventory market, has been extremely effective in getting maximum exposure, and the highest price, for the seller.
Agents would not be permitted to quietly “test” the market to see how the listing, and/or it’s price, will be received by the market. This is often done by marketing the home before entry in the MLS to establish the right price. Once in the MLS, the days on market start working against the seller, as do price reductions, so coming into the MLS at the right price is essential for the seller.
It prevents a seller from using a REALTOR® when they wish to have their property marketed in a private manner and not publicly. This happens often when the seller is a high-profile individual that for security and/or privacy reasons, does not want photos and details about their home (including that they are selling it) publicly known. It can also occur in the case of a divorce, a distressed-type sale, etc;
Time will tell whether this proves to be good, or bad, for the industry and the consumer.
The St Louis real estate market trends remain steady and consistent! The St Louis home sales and price trends give me an optimistic outlook for next year. Low-interest rates continue to offset some of the cost of the increases in home prices that have occurred. Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.
You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
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