Not only has it become common today for homes to sell as soon as they hit the market but receiving offers from multiple buyers and at prices that equal or even exceed the asking price is common as well. While this is an illustration of Economics 101, the rule and supply and demand, when the demand exceeds the supply (such as in the housing market in many price ranges and areas), prices increase this can also be a reminder of times past when home prices rose quickly for several years, then retreated rather abruptly. The most recent example of this, and arguably the worst during my 40 years in the real estate business, was the housing bubble that burst in 2008 sending home prices into a downward trend that lasted about 3 years.
So, are we headed to another housing bubble?
My focus is primarily on the St Louis housing market so I will focus on that but I will point out what I see with regard home prices, St Louis has a better outlook than at the national level.
Yesterday, I shared a report on new sales of listings in the St Louis MSA which showed sales were up 10% for the week from a year ago. Today, I created the report below which shows new listings during the same week, and while the number of new listings was up 8% for the week from a year ago, they still didn’t keep pace with the new sales. As the report reveals, there were 1155 new listings in the St Louis MSA last week and, as yesterday’s report showed, 1245 sales, so nearly 8% more new sales than new listings.
New Residential Listings – St Louis MSA
For the Week Ended June 13, 2020
Data Source: MARIS – Copyright 2020, MORE, REALTORS All Rights Reserved
COVID-19 who? While it’s still around, it’s impact on the St Louis real estate market has dissipated to the point that we are seeing activity at levels higher than this time last year. For example, as the report below shows, there were 1,245 new sales of residential listings in the St Louis MSA last week, an increase of 10 percent from the same time a year ago. St Charles County was the county with the second-highest number of sales with 217 for the week which was a 32% increase from a year ago! St Louis County, the county with the most home sales in the St Louis MSA had 435 sales, a slight increase above 432 a year ago.
New Contracts On Residential Listings – St Louis MSA
For the Week Ended June 13, 2020
Data Source: MARIS – Copyright 2020, MORE, REALTORS All Rights Reserved
There were 542 homes “flipped” in the St Louis metro area during the first quarter of 2020, or 8.5% of the total number of homes sold in the St Louis metro area during the quarter, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Solutions. This is an increase of 13.8% from the prior quarter and is a decrease of 2% from a year ago. The median gross profit was 52,900 a 60.8% gross ROI.
Definition of a “flipped” home…
For the purposes of this report, a flipped home is considered to be any home or condo that was sold during the first quarter of this year in an arms-length sale that had previously had an arms-length sale within the prior 12 months. Since homeowners don’t tend to buy a home only to turn around and resell it within a year, when this does occur it is typically the result of an investor buying a property, renovating it, then reselling it.
There were 4,4,83 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during April, an increase of 4.28% from a year ago when there were 4,299 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). However, the increase in new home construction activity was not shared equally around the St Louis area and, in fact, really only favored St Charles County and Jefferson County again.
Of the seven counties reported on by the St Louis HBA, 5 saw a decline in building permits from a year ago (the same 5 counties as last month) and, like last month, Lincoln County saw the largest decline at over 15%, and St Charles County was the big winner again where the number of new home building permits in March increased nearly 20% from the same month last year.
The St Louis real estate market slowed when the effects of COVID-19 hit the St Louis area in early March but after continuing at a slower pace for a few weeks has quickly shifted gears to a faster pace. The St Louis market has improved to the point that, for the 12-month period ended May 31, 2020, St Louis home sales were down just 1.84% from the prior 12-month period. The median price of homes sold during the past 12-months was $213,000, an increase of 6.55% from the prior period.
St Louis 5-County Core Market Home Sales and Prices
COVID-19 lingers on but the real estate market in St Louis has made a quick recovery from the negative impact it had on the market. The data supports the idea that home buyers are tired of waiting for everything to come back to “normal” (or whatever variation of normal the new normal is) and have been out looking at and buying homes. This is evidenced by the chart below which depicts showings of listings this year and compares each 7-day period with the year before. As you can see, showings this year (the orange line) we down, significantly from last year during the worst of the pandemic, but have rebounded to the point where last week’s showings topped the year before by over 12%!
While COVID-19 has not released it’s grip on us, it has eased the grip and certainly, this is true with regard to the St Louis real estate market. As I’ve written about recently, showings of listings have increased to the point they have outpaced the same time as last year and now, the number of new contracts on listings is just about there as well!
As the table below shows, the number of new contracts on residential listings in the last 7 days that have been reported is, for the St Louis MSA, down just 3% from the same time last year and for the St Louis County Core market, down just 6%. Jefferson County has actually seen sales that top the same period last year by 24%.
St Louis New Contracts On Residential Listings For The Past 7 Days
It’s no wonder home buyers are tripping over themselves and getting into bidding wars to buy a house as the supply of homes for sale is at or near historic lows. As our table below shows, there are currently 40 zip codes in the St Louis MSA with a one-month or less supply of homes for sale (7 of the zips have no homes for sale) and a total of 76 of the 127 (60%) zip codes within the St Louis MSA have a supply of homes for sale of 2 months or less.
This low inventory, along with low-interest rates and pent-up demand from the COVID-19 induced stay at home orders, is creating a real feeding frenzy of sorts for homebuyers in the St Louis market. For sellers, this is a dream come true, plenty of demand and little competition! Granted, this is not true in all areas and all price ranges, but for the most common prices ranges in the more popular areas it is very true.
Sellers should sell now!
If you are someone that has been thinking about selling, I would act on those thoughts now and take advantage of the current low-inventory conditions. While I don’t know that I agree, there are folks out there predicting that the market is going to get flooded with homes for sale shortly turning the tide on sellers. For me, I’ll believe that when I see it, but nonetheless, now is definitely a great time to sell.
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There were 4,506 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during March, an increase of 4.55% from a year ago when there were 4,310 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). However, the increase in new home construction activity was not shared equally around the St Louis area and, in fact, really only favored St Charles County and Jefferson County.
Of the seven counties reported on by the St Louis HBA, 5 saw a decline in building permits from a year ago with Lincoln County seeing the biggest loss at over 25%, and St Charles County was the big winner where the number of new home building permits in March increased nearly 25% from the same month last year.
As the St Louis real estate market continues to distance itself from the effects of COVID-19 and the resulting stay at home orders and business shutdowns, I continue to see market activity that is encouraging. For example, as the chart below shows, for the most recent week, reported (through last Thursday) the showing activity on listings in St Louis and surrounding areas were at a level that is 3.9% higher than for the same period last year. This is a huge rebound since showings hit bottom in the middle of the lock-down on April 9th and fell to a level that was barely half of the year before.
The St Louis real estate market continues to be on the upswing and recovering from the impact of COVID-19. The pandemic did slow the St Louis real estate market down for a while but it appears to be recovering quite quickly. Get all of this and more in this month’s update.
Interest rates, the “cherry on top”. In case the market rebound isn’t enough, mortgage interest rates are at near historic lows making now a great time, and an affordable time, to buy a house if you are in a position to do so.
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As the St Louis area slowly moves toward starting to come back to life, so to speak, the St Louis real estate market continues to heat up! After getting a gut punch from the COVID-19 pandemic, which I now refer to as “The COVID-19 effect”, the St Louis market has been steadily making a come back. As the table below shows, the total number of new sales of residential listings last week for the St Louis MSA as a whole was down just 6% from the same time last year, and down just 10% for the 5-County core St Louis market. In fact, Jefferson County and Franklin County both saw more sales last week than at the same time a year ago!
St Louis Area New Contracts On Residential Listings
I may be jumping the gun just a little, but showing activity on residential listings during the past week is just about back to where it was this time last year when there wasn’t a COVID-19 pandemic! As the chart below illustrates, the weekly average for showings through May 8th is just down a little over 2% from the same time last year and is up 40% from the first week of January this year.
Showing Activity For St Louis and Surrounding Market Areas
(click on the chart for a live, interactive chart)
Through the end of April, there have been 7,146 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core Market, nearly exactly the same as last year when there were 7,153 homes sold. In spite of the challenges caused by Covid-19, including the stay at home orders, over the past 7 weeks, the residential real estate market has managed to fare ok.
The trend is not looking so good though…
One thing to keep in mind is the date I just referenced is somewhat a historical look at the market since we are talking about closings of sales and not new sales. For example, many of the closings that took place in April were likely sales that took place prior to when the “COVID-19 effect” started in St Louis, which was around March 10th.
The darker green line on the chart below reflects the home sales trend for the St Louis market, with each data point reflecting the prior 12-months home sales. You will notice the trend line takes a significant drop in April. If you look at last year, the trend line took a dip in April as well but had declined the month before also. As I’ve reported over the past few weeks, new sales, while they have made a significant recovery, have been down as much as 35% or so from last year, so we’re likely to see the trend remain downward at least in the short term.
St Louis 5-County Core Market YTD Home Sales and Home Sales Trend For Past 25-Months
Prior to COVID-19, there had already been a shortage of residential listings for sale in many areas and price ranges through St Louis going back a couple of years. However, the problem may be getting worse as we are continuing to see new sales of residential listings in St Louis picking up the pace to the point that they are down just 16% from the same time a year ago but, new listings in the St Louis MSA are down 30% from the same time a year ago.
Since we started with a low inventory and now have the sales rate outpacing the listing rate, we are probably going to see an even tighter supply of homes for sale for at least the near future. As our table below shows, there are some areas where this is even more pronounced, such as St Charles County where the number of new sales of residential listings for the most recent 7-day period is down just 3% from a year ago but new listings during the same period are down 37%.
St Charles County down to less than 2-month supply
As our tables at the bottom shows, currently, there is just a 1.97 month supply of homes for sale in St Charles County and, if we look at the “sweet-spot” of homes priced in the $150,000 – $300,000 range, there is an inventory of just 1.04 months. If you own a home in St Charles County and have thought about selling, contact us now and let us show you how to leverage this market in your favor whileit lasts.
The average residential listing in the 63362 zip code area in Lincoln County, Missouri has been on the market for just 15 days, making 63362 the fastest-selling zip code within the St Louis MSA at this time. As our table below shows, Lincoln County zips occupy two of the top spots with the 63379 zip code area in a three-way tie for 3rd on the list with listing having an average time on the market of 25 days. So what’s up with Lincoln County? Maybe with all this social-distancing going on people have decided to head to more sparsely populated areas making it easier, or perhaps have discovered they can move farther out and work remotely?
I’m not saying there aren’t other, non Covid-19 reasons, to move to Lincoln County such as the county seat for Lincoln County, Troy, Missouri. Troy’s popularity has grown substantially with its population increasing about 28% in the past decade from 10,640 people ion 2010 to 13,600 currently while, during the same period, for example, the city of St Louis’ population declined 8% from 319,320 to 293,792.
Showings of real estate listings in St Louis fell dramatically after the COVID-19 outbreak and hit levels that were about half of what they were the same time last year during the first half of April. Since hitting the low point on April 12th, showings have, as the chart below shows, increased sharply to the point where they are only down 15% from the same time last year. Given that home buyers are much more open to virtual showings and hesitant to look at a home in person without thoroughly vetting it online, resulting in fewer showings per sale, this decline is really not bad at all.
St Louis metro area along with other markets served by MARIS
The homeownership rate in the St Louis MSA for the first quarter of this year was 68.4%, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. While this was just a slight increase from the prior quarter, when the St Louis homeownership rate was 68.3%, it was good enough to move St Louis’s homeownership rate from 24th to 22nd on the list of the 75 largest MSAs.
Yesterday, I wrote about how St Louis home sales were on the rebound based upon the latest contract data which showed the number of new contracts on listings in the St Louis MSA had declined by just 16% from the same time a year ago. The question is, will that trend continue? Well, a very good, and reliable, leading-indicator of home sales is home showings, and, as the chart below shows, showings of listings in the St Louis MSA has been on the rise over the past two weeks. As of yesterday, showings were down just 17.7% from the same time last year for the St Louis MSA. This would suggest that, absent something happening to disrupt it, the home sales trend I reported yesterday may continue.
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Showings Of Listings in the St Louis metro area
(click on chart for current, live-interactive chart)
Maybe it’s the gorgeous weather, a more optimistic outlook after receiving stimulus payments or perhaps just being tired of waiting in limbo, but homebuyers have come out strong in St Louis during the past week! St Louis home sales are still not at the levels we would expect at this time of year but, as my table below shows, for the St Louis MSA as a whole, the most recent 7-day period is down just 16% from the same time last year. This is about half the decline I’ve seen when pulling the data as recently as a week ago.
St Charles County home sales have come back the strongest with 185 homes sold during the 7-day period from 4/14 through 4/21, just 12% less than the same period last year and the city of St Louis is next with a decline of just 14%. Franklin County is struggling the most with just about half as many home sales as last year.
As I wrote yesterday, with low-interest rates and the buying opportunities out there, now is a great time to buy for those that are able. Wow, now that I think about it, maybe that’s the reason home sales are increasing, people are listening to me LOL.
St Louis New Residential Home Sales April 14 – 21 – (Table)
Date Source: MARIS – Copyright 2020 St Louis Real Estate News, all rights reserved
Fannie Mae issued their monthly housing forecast for April which includes, among other data, a forecast of what mortgage interest rates will be in the coming months. Last months forecast had projected that mortgage rates would continue to decline moving forward but only to a low of 3.1% before the end of 2021 while the April forecast predicted the interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage would fall to 2.9% in the 2nd quarter of 2021 and stay there through the balance of the year.
If you’re able, now’s the time to buy!
While the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, such as job loss, is going to take some would-be home buyers out of the market, for those that are still able to buy, now is a great time to buy a home. There are many factors that play in favor of buyers today, such as the fact that there are about 1/3 fewer of them (buyers in the market) now than this time last year, sellers that want to have fewer people coming through their homes and interest rates. As our chart below shows, not only are rates low now, they are projected to go much lower even.
Why not wait until next year when the rates hit their lowest?
Good question, but there are several reasons not to wait. First off, the rates shown on my chart are “projections”, or to put it another way “an educated guess”, so there is no guarantee rates will actually come down as predicted. In addition, once the stay at home orders go away and we start moving back to something closer to normal, I anticipate there will be a flood of buyers to the market which, along with lower interest rates (if that happens) will likely drive home prices up. So, for buyers that are able, they may get a better buy today, with less competition, still get a good interest rate and then if rates do fall as predicted can easily refinance to take advantage of lower rates.
Fannie Mae Mortgage Interest Rate Forecast April 2020 (Chart)
Showings of listings for sale in the St Louis metro area started to decline on March 10th after COVID-19 hit our area and stay at home orders followed. As the chart below shows, the number of showings, compared to the same period last year, continued to fall until hitting the bottom on April 12th.
By the time showings hit rock bottom, they had declined to a level equal to about 25% fewer showings than during the first week of January this year and nearly 50% fewer showings than the same time last year. However, since hitting bottom on the 12th, showings have increased 42% to the current point which is 7% higher than the first week of January and down just about 19% from the same time last year.
Showings in St Louis metro area along with other markets served by MARIS
The COVID-19 pandemic (coronavirus) began impacting the St Louis area just a little over a month ago and I’ve been tracking the impact on the St Louis real estate market along the way. From the outset, we have seen a decline in the number of new listings, new sales and physical showings of listings, however, overall the decline has remained fairly constant. New sales of listings for the St Louis area has pretty well hovered around a level equal to about tw0-thirds of the activity we saw at the same time last year.
Now that we are about a month into the “COVID-19 effect”, a few weeks into the stay at home orders and a few weeks into real estate agents adjusting to doing business in a different way, I wanted to take an in-depth look to see where we stand now. I’ll warn you in advance, this article is a little long, mainly because of tables and data, but I wanted to include as much data as I could to paint the complete picture of the market.
Home sales are the best indicator of market confidence….
While we are in the midst of the 2020 census, the U.S. Census Bureau released its population growth estimates for metropolitan statistical areas (MSA’s) in the U.S. which revealed the St Louis MSA saw a population increase of just 0.6% from 2010 through 2019. As the table below shows, the population of the St Louis MSA in 2010 was 2,787,751 and in 2019 it was 2,803,228, an increase of 15,477 people during the 9-year period or 0.6%. Overall, the United States saw a population increase of 6.3% during the same period and the population of MSAs across the country saw an increase of 7.5%. In terms of the rate of population increase for MSAs from 2010-2019, St Louis ranked 283rd out of 384 MSA’s.
The St Louis real estate market is off to a good start for 2020 however, it is getting impacted by COVID-19. This month’s market update video includes market data through the end of March but, even though about 2/3 of March was after COVID-19 began disrupting things here, the effects really cannot be seen yet. A couple of weeks ago I did a Special Report video that was specifically about the impact of coronavirus on the St Louis real estate market, but it won’t be until our May market report that we really see the full impact of it on the market.
Rates are back down after a brief stint on the rise. The mortgage market is a little volatile now given all that is going on but, so far, so good.
In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.
You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
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Last night, the Internal Revenue Service issued guidance to extend the time permitted to complete a like-kind exchange or rollover into an Opportunity fund. While the actual IRS notice has not been issued yet (I’m guessing it will come out today) and that will contain more specifics, below are highlights of the relief that is being granted to real estate investors by the IRS as a result of COVID-19:
1031 Like-kind exchange – If an investor is in the midst of 1031 exchange and has already sold the property they owned and the 45-day period to identify the replacement property or the 180-day period to close on the replacement property falls between April 1, 2020, and July 15, 2020, the deadline will be extended to July 15, 2020.
Opportunity zone – If an investor has sold a capital asset and plans to roll over the gain from it into a Qualified Opportunity Zone Fund and the 180-day deadline to do so falls between April 1, 2020, and July 15, 2020, the deadline to cmplete the investment will be extended to July 15, 2020.
As I mentioned, the IRS will likely issue written guidance today with more details. When that happens, I’ll update this post with any pertinent information that it contains.
The average property tax amount in 2019 for a residential property was $2,840, according to the latest data released from ATTOM Data Research. Based upon the average estimated home value for the St Louis MSA of $211,816, this works out to an effective property tax rate of 1.34% which is slightly less than last year’s effective rate of 1.36% and is the same as the rate of 1.34% in 2016.
St Louis MSA Effective Property Tax Rates – 2016 – 2019
Data source: ATTM Data Solutions – Copyright 2020 -has St Louis Real Estate News
Yesterday, I shared data showing that, in spite of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic, new sales of residential listings in the 5-county core St Louis market for the most recent 7-day period that complete data is available for, were down 35% from a year ago. I received requests to break the data down further so I did so by county. As the table below shows, for the 7-day period ended April 2nd, new sales of listings in St Charles County were down just 25% from the prior year. The reason the period ends April 2nd is REALTORS® has 3 business days to report new sales to the MLS so that means the deadline for reporting a new sale on April 2nd was last night so this data should be very accurate.
St Louis New Sales Of Residential Listings
3/26/20 – 4/02/20 Vs. One-Year Ago
Data source: Mid-America Regional Information Systems, Inc. – Copyright 2020 -has St Louis Real Estate News
As the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic continues to keep many of us confined to our homes unless we need to go out for an essential service which, fortunately, the department of Homeland Security includes real estate in the definition, it is, of course, taking its toll on the St Louis real estate market. As would be expected during a time like this, would-be homebuyers who have had their jobs or businesses impacted as a result of COVID-19 have pulled out of the market for now as have some folks who were considering a move purely for convenience or some other reason they feel will wait.
However, having said that, there still appear to be many serious homebuyers in the current market that want or need, to buy now. This is evidenced by the most recent data I pulled below which shows new contracts on listings for the most recent 7 day period that have had contracts reported to the MLS. So, to be clear, the “sales” I counted are residential listings that actually went under contract during the period,
As the table below shows, there were 994 new contracts on residential listings in the St Louis MSA during the past 7 days, a decline of 32% from the same time period a year ago. There were 715 new contracts on residential listings in the St Louis 5-County Core market during the same period, a decline of 35% from the same period a year ago.
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St Louis New Contracts On Residential Listings For The 7 Day Period of 3/26 – 4/02
COVID-19 has led to different methods of selling homes…
Today, real estate companies, like other businesses are trying to do business virtually and incorporating technology into their business more than ever before. While some were already doing this, at least to some extent, it’s something that is new for many traditional “brick and mortar” type businesses. (WARNING- SHAMELESS PLUG COMING) Doing business virtually isn’t anything new to our firm, MORE, REALTORS, or our agents as we have incorporated this into our business model for well over a decade. It has caused us to switch into high gear to complete enhancements to our DOHR™ (Digital Open House Registration, U.S. Patent Pending) which include a totally virtual open house experience, a virtual showing experience as well as a hosted virtual tour experience. These are all things that will allow us to serve our seller clients by exposing their homes to the market, showing them to potential buyers while also protecting them and their families from exposure to the COVID-19 threat.
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