Every month Fannie Mae surveys consumers about owning and renting a home as well as about other issues related to the housing market and economy and from the results publish their Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI). One of the components of the index is what the sentiment is on whether now is a good time to buy a home or sell a home. In the April 2021 HPSI consumers sentiment on now being a good time to buy a home hit an all-time low with just 47% of respondents saying now is a good time to buy a home. As the charts below illustrate, 67% of respondents saiid now was a good time to sell a home which is just one percentage point away from the record high of 68% back in April 2018.
It’s not surpassing that if a near record number of people think now is a good time to sell that the sentiment on the buyer’s side would be the opposite as having a truly balanced market not favoring buyers or sellers is hard. In fact, the last time it was even close to balanced was in the latter part of 2012 and the early part of 2013 when roughly 45% – 55% of consumers felt it was both a good time to buy as well as sell a home.
In spite of the challenge of a low-inventory housing market, St Louis City and County, St Charles County and Franklin County all saw double-digit increases in the number of homes sold in April while Jefferson County saw a double digit decline. As the charts below illustrate, the median price of homes sold in those counties increased from a year ago in all the counties, two of them in the double digits.
Not all housing data is the same….nor accurate for that matter…
One thing worth noting is that there are housing market reports out there from many different sources, including many credible ones that may or may not be accurate. In most cases this is not due to an error on the part of the person or entity sharing the data but a result of either bad data, inaccurate data or misinterpreted data. For example, when preparing to write this article I noticed two different reports on “St Louis” home prices for homes sold in April. One, which indicated it was for St Louis City and County combined, reported $250,000 and one which reported the “St Louis area” was $266,000. In the case of the latter, my first guess was that they were reporting data for the St Louis MSA but when I checked that the actual sold price in April was only $223,750 so I have no idea where the data came from. For the former, the $250,000 median price is not only higher than the median price for St Louis City and County, it’s higher than the median price for the whole MSA and while the source is indicated, I’m not sure how this number was arrived at.
So what does it matter?
In the crazy market we are in where buyers are getting in bidding wars to get a home, I think it’s more important than ever to have good, relevant and accurate data available to your agent so your agent can help you make an informed decision. You ultimately may decide to pay above what you think the current value of the home is but it would help to know what the real value is. If you look at my chart below for St Louis City and County you’ll see the median price of homes sold in April was $230,000 which is quite different than the $250,000 price and $266,000 I saw reported elsewhere. Would being $20,000 – $36,000 off on the value matter to you? I think it might.
So how do I know I’m right?
Well, for starters I’m a data junky and for the past dozen or so years I’ve probably spent, on average about a dozen hours a week or more studying market data for St Louis. In addition, for the past 6 or 7 years we have worked to develop our own proprietary software to compile and report housing data and are constantly checking and double checking the output. Finally, we have a very credible source for data, the REALTOR® MLS and we constantly update and check the data. Put all of this together and while there’s no way to say it’s 100% correct, but I’m confident it’s about as close as you can get.
While lately there’s been a lot of talk about the skyrocketing lumber prices and the impact on the cost of a new home but that’s not the only thing impacting the price of new homes. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) recently released the results of its 2021 Land Developer Survey on Regulatory Costswhich, as the detailed table below shows, the average total cost of regulatory items in the price of a new home is $93,870. The NAHB in the same report indicates the average price of a new home is currently $397,300 so the cost of complying with regulatory issues makes up nearly 25%of the price (23.8%) of a new home.
The second table below breaks out the regulatory costs between ground development and home construction and, as it illustrates, the costs are fairly evenly divided between the two with ground development experiencing 10.5% cost for regulatory compliances and construction of the home itself 13.3%.
There were 5,045 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended March 31, 2021 an increase of over 10.5% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,564 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). For the forth month in a row, All seven counties covered in the report saw an increase in building permits from the same period a year ago and with double-digit increases for four counties. Lincoln County, for the third consecutive month, saw the largest increase at 60.78% followed by Warren County at 17.61%.
UPDATE: After the decision by to overturn the eviction moratorium was decided upon by Judge Dabney L. Friedrich on May 5th, at 6:54pm that evening the U.S. Government filed a notice of appeal as well as a motion for an emergency stay to not have the eviction moratorium lifted until after the appeal. Judge Dabney L. Friedrich through a Minute Order, granted the stay, thereby leaving the eviction moratorium in place for now but noting that “This Minute Order should not be construed in any way as a ruling on the merits of the defendants’ motion.” The judge allowed the plaintiff’s until May 12th to file opposition to the motion to stay and then the U.S. government 4 days to respond to the plaintiff’s opposition.
So, for now, the eviction moratorium stands…
05/05/2021
MINUTE ORDER. Before the Court is the defendants’ 57 Emergency Motion for a Stay Pending Appeal of this Court’s 53 May 5, 2021 Order vacating the national eviction moratorium at 86 Fed. Reg. 16,731. In this emergency motion, the defendants request an immediate administrative stay to give this Court time to consider and rule upon its motion to stay this case pending appeal. Alternatively, the defendants request that the Court stay its 53 May 5, 2021 Order as to all parties except for the plaintiffs. Defs.’ Emergency Mot. for a Stay Pending Appeal at 1 n.1, 8-9, Dkt. 57. Although the plaintiffs have not yet filed an opposition to the defendants’ motion, which was filed at 6:54 p.m. this evening, the defendants represent that the plaintiffs oppose the motion. Id. at 1 n.1. In order to give the Court time to consider the merits of the defendants’ 57 Emergency Motion for a Stay Pending Appeal, and the plaintiffs time to file an opposition to the motion, the Court will grant the defendants’ request for a temporary administrative stay.
This Minute Order should not be construed in any way as a ruling on the merits of the defendants’ motion. The Court notes, however, that, as the Court has explained, see Mem. Op. at 19, Dkt. 54, the law in this Circuit is clear: where a court concludes that an agency has exceeded its statutory authority, as this Court has done here, see Mem. Op. at 17, vacatur of the rule is the proper remedy in this Circuit. See Nat’l Mining Ass’n v. U.S. Army Corps of Eng’rs, 145 F.3d 1399, 1409 (D.C. Cir. 1998). Based on this clear authority, courts in this Circuit do not restrict vacatur only to those plaintiffs before the Court. See, e.g., O.A. v. Trump, 404 F. Supp. 3d 109, 152-53 (D.D.C. 2019). Indeed, the government has been unable to point to a single case in which a court in this Circuit has done so. See Mot. Hr’g Rough Tr. at 31.
Accordingly, it is ORDERED that the Court’s 53 May 5, 2021 Order is administratively STAYED. It is further ORDERED that the plaintiffs shall file any opposition to the defendants’ motion on or before May 12, 2021, and the defendants shall file any reply within four days of the date the plaintiffs’ opposition is filed. So Ordered by Judge Dabney L. Friedrich on May 5, 2021. (lcdlf1)
(Entered: 05/05/2021)
Today, United States District Judge Dabney L. Friedrich issued an oder setting aside the CDC Ordered nationwide eviction moratorium that, prior to this order, was in effect until June 30, 2021. For the entire opinion from the court, click “>HEREand then scroll down to the first big red button titled “Court Order Lifting Rental Eviction Moratorium May 5, 2021”.
Lately, I’ve noticed several articles questioning whether the kind of crazy real estate market we’ve in for a while now is reminiscent of the early 2000’s which lead to a housing bubble that eventually burst in 2008. Granted, even in St Louis where we tend to not see the market extremes one way or the other like the coasts do, one could get the idea that maybe we’re headed that way with buyer’s fighting over new listings and bidding wars that have homes often selling for over the list price. However, in my humble opinion, this market is very different than the 2000 – 2007 market and we are not headed to a crash at this point.
Before I go further…my disclaimer…
I’m not an economist and I didn’t even stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, I’m just a long-time real estate industry data junkie who has ridden the real estate roller coaster for 40+ years and have some thoughts on the current state of the market. While my comments may apply outside of our local market, my focus and commentary are on the St Louis housing market.
The St Louis MSA rental vacancy rate during the 1st quarter of 2021 was 6.4%, the highest rate since the 4th quarter of 2019, according to data recently released by the U.S. Census Bureau. During the 1st quarter of last year, the St Louis rental vacancy rate was 5.5%..
St Louis Rental Vacancy Rates – 2005 – Present
(click on table for complete data from 2005 – present)
The homeownership rate in the St Louis MSA for the first quarter of 2021 was 73.1%, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. This is a big jump upward from the 4th quarter of last year when St Louis ranked 23rd on the list.
There were a total of 7,863 residential building permits issued in the St Louis MSA during 2020 with 5,719 of this being for single-family homes both of which represent the highest number of building permits issued since 2007. As the table below shows, there were 110 building permits issued for 2-unit buildings, 57 permits for 3-4 unit buildings and nearly 2,000 (1,977) issued for buildings with 5 units or more last year.
We’re not even close to the early 2000’s though…
As the chart below does such a great job of illustrating, even though the number of residential building permits in St Louis has increased significantly from hitting bottom in 2011 as a result of the 2008 housing bubble burst, we are still not close to the levels before the crash. For the 13 years proceeding the housing bubble burst in 2008, the median number of residential building permits issued in the St Louis MSA in a year was 10,381 permits, 81% more than our “record” year last year.
The “New” Trend?
On the bottom chart, there is a red line which represents the linear trend line for single-family building permits, which on a positive note, does show the number of permits issued in the last 4 years or so bucking the downward trend.
Is it any wonder the inventory of homes for sale is so low?
The St Louis luxury home market (homes priced at $700,000 or above) after remaining relatively flat for about a year has been steadily trending upward for now 10-months in a row. Even though April is not over, there have already been more sales of Luxury homes closed than for the month before, so April will make the 10th month of increased sales activity.
As the STL Market Chart below shows (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®), sales of luxury homes in St Louis City and County and St Charles County, have increased from 694 sales for the 12-month period ended April 2018 to 1,130 for the 12-month period ending the 30th of this month (so it’s going to rise further even), an increase of 63% in the past 3 years. For the sake of this analysis, a “luxury” home was considered to be a home selling for $700,000 or above, which puts it in the upper 5% or so of the market.
St Louis Luxury Home Sales Trend (12-month prior periods) For the Past 3 Years
Mortgage interest rates dropped below 3% this past week with an average interest rate of 2.97% on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. As the chart below shows, mortgage interest rates have not been below 3% since February 25, 2021 when they also averaged 2.97%. Rates are still up from the record low rate of 2.65% in January, but as you can see on the chart, are still at a rate that is historically low!
Now is the time to buy or perhaps refinance your existing mortgage.
Anyone that has been thinking of buying a home should, if able, shift into high geat and find one now to take advantage of the low rates and the increased buying power that comes with it. The first step would be to get yourself pre-approved and, for that, I would recommend Michael McCarthy with Flat Branch Home Loans…he’s great and our firm does a lot of business with him. You can find his info at STLBestLender.com. If you a homeowner with a mortgage and no plans to move, I would also suggest you get in touch with Mike to see how much money you can save by refinancing your existing mortgage at a lower rate.
With the inventory of homes for sale remaining at historically low levels for the last couple of years home buyers may be wondering why there aren’t more new homes being built? Actually, in St Louis, new home construction has been increasing at a pretty good rate but it appears more homes can be absorbed by the market than are being built.
The answer to why more homes are not being built is probably the result of many things such as a lack of available ground in areas that are in demand, a shortage of contractors and tradesmen, the complication of, and cost related to regulatory compliance and the ever increasing cost of building materials. The cost of many building materials has increased significantly but lumber prices, which is a major component of a new home in many ways, have just shot into the stratosphere. As the chart below shows, the Producer Price Index for lumber and wood products shot up to 441 in March, an increase of 84% from a year ago.
According the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) the price increases in lumber have caused the price of an average home to increase by $24,000 since April 2020 just to cover this increased cost.
Producer Price Index by Commodity: Lumber and Wood Products: Softwood Lumber
LendingTree just released a list of the 50 large metro areas with the most competitive housing markets in the U.S. on which St Louis was ranked as the 6th most competitive market. This list was based upon LendingTree’s assessment of the quality of the buyer’s in each market, based upon their strength as a buyer from a financing standpoint.
So, while not an analysis of which cities have the most buyers showing up at a listing or where listings are receiving the highest number of offers, it’s about the quality of the home buyer’s from a competitive standpoint. This makes sense, as today the hard part isn’t necessarily finding a buyer for a new listing, it’s about the listing agent analyzing the offers and helping the seller determine not only which may have the best terms, but which buyer has the best ability to perform. After all, having a great offer doesn’t really mean anything if the deal doesn’t close.
Most Competitive Housing Markets
(click on table for complete list)
In analyzing the quality of the buyer’s and assessing the competitiveness of each market, LendingTree took into consideration the following for each metro area:
The share of home buyers shopping for a mortgage even before they found the house they wanted. This is indicative of a good buyer that wants to be prepared to react quick and understands the importance of being pre-approved to be make their offer more attractive to the seller.
The average down payment percentage. A buyer with a larger downpayment is going to look like a stronger buyer to a seller.
Percentage of buyers have have good credit (above a 680 credit score). Better credit means more financing options and lower cost financing which can enable the buyer to pay more than someone with lower credit and have the same monthly cost in terms of payment. A better credit score also means there is a better chance of the deal closing.
A good buyer’s agent will know everything above and help their client through the process to make them have the best chance possible of getting their offer accepted. Likewise, a good listing agent will know how to scrutinize buyer’s and help their seller client pick the one that not only has offered an acceptable price and terms but has the highest likelihood of closing. For a recommendation of a great St Louis buyer’s agent or listing agent, contact me.
There were 4,956 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended February 28, 2021 an increase of 11.0% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,465 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). For the forth month in a row, All seven counties covered in the report saw an increase in building permits from the same period a year ago and with double-digit increases for four counties. Lincoln County saw the largest increase at 63.64% followed by St Louis County at 14.64%.
St Louis New Home Building Permits – February 2021
The inventory of homes for sale may be low, but that doesn’t appear to be slowing down the pace of home sales. As the STL Real Estate Trends Report below shows (which is exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®) during the most recent week that data is available for, there were 1,151 new contracts written on listings in the St Louis MSA, an increase of 54% from the same period a year ago when there were 746 contracts written.
New listings are up as well during the same period. Again, referring to STL Real Estate Trends Report from MORE, REALTORS® this time for listings, we see that there were 908 new listings during the most recently reported week, an increase of 26% from the same period last year.
For the week ended April 3rd, new sales out paced new listings by 26% so it doesn’t appear we are going to see any change in the low supply of homes for sale anytime soon.
Local Home Trends Report- New Contracts
(click on report for live, current report)
Local Home Trends Report- New Listings
(click on report for live, current report)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) earlier this week proposed rule changes that would help prevent “avoidable foreclosures” that will come about when the current foreclosure ban expires June 30th. According to the CFPB, nearly 3 million homeowners are delinquent on their mortgages as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the economic issues that have come about as a result.
The CFPB’s proposed rule changes include:
Require a pre-foreclosure review period that would generally prohibit loan servicers from starting foreclosure until after December 31, 2021 on loans secured by a borrower’s principal residence.
Permit loan servicers to offer “certain streamlined loan modification options to borrowers with COVID-19-related hardships.”
The CFPB is going to accept comments on their proposed rules until May 11, 2011 and then afterward will decide how to proceed.
About the CFPB (from their website)
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is a 21st century agency that helps consumer finance markets work by making rules more effective, by consistently and fairly enforcing those rules, and by empowering consumers to take more control over their economic lives. For more information, visitwww.consumerfinance.gov.
There are a total of seventeen counties that make up the St Louis MSA with 9 of them being on the Missouri side of the Mississippi River and the other 8 on the Illinois side. For some reason, I was curious today if the portion of the St Louis MSA in one state was outperforming the other or if they were performing about the same. I guess my expectation was probably the latter but the data showed that in fact, during the past three months, they were closed, but each state has its bragging rights depending on which data point you look at.
The tables and charts below (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) show more details but below are some highlights of the comparisons between the counties in the two states:
Sold home prices in Missouri for December were at a median price of $226,500 in December then dipped in January, as expected but rebounded back in February to a median price of $225,000 or 99.3% of the December price. Illinois, on the other hand, had a median price of $150,000 in December then actually increased in January but then fell to $137,750 in February, or 91.8% of the December price.
The number of home sales paints a different picture though. For the Missouri counties, there were 2,819 homes sold in December and 1,849 in February, for a decrease of 34%. In the Illinois counties, there were 744 homes sold in December and 554 in February for a 26% decrease.
As any home buyer in the market is well aware no doubt, we have a low inventory of homes for sale in the St Louis MSA. As the STL Market Report below shows (which is exclusivley available from MORE, REALTORS®) there is currently just a 1.2 month supply of active listings in the St Louis metro area. It doesn’t look like the situation is improving either as MORE’s Local Home Trends Reports at the bottom show that new contracts in the past two weeks have outpaced new listings during the same period. There were 2,105 new contracts written for the sale of a home and there were 1,976 new listings of homes for sale. With the new sales outpacing new listings by a little over 6% it indicates we are not going to see any improvement in the inventory in the near term.
For the 12-month period ended February 28, 2021, there were 29,402 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market. As the 15-year chart below (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) shows, this is the highest 12-month sales period in more than 15 years! Going back to 2006, a historic banner year for real estate, we find that the 12-month period ended March 31, 2006, came in close at 28,797 homes sold, but that’s a little over 2% below our most recent 12-month period.
But, can St Louis home sales keep up this pace?
Having a record-setting period for home sales is great but, practically speaking, it’s hard to sustain a record level for long so typically sales would ease after a record period and settle into a “norm”. Having been in this business for 40 years, I’ve seen many of these periods and the $64 question is always the same. How long can it last? I’m not going to even pretend I have that answer as there are too many variables including the continued impact of the pandemic on the economy and life in general, rising oil and gas prices, rising government debt, and uncertainty about the economy to name just a few. Oh, and did I mention the lack of inventory? It’s hard to maintain record sales levels when there are not enough products to sell.
If you are in the process of trying to find a home to purchase or have gone through the process in the last couple of years, I don’t need to tell you how low the inventory of homes for sale is. Currently, in the St Louis 5-County core market, there is less than a one-month supply of homes for sale (0.85 months).
However, within that area, there are 21 zip codes that have a current supply of at least double that, 1.7 months or more. As the chart below shows, the supply of homes for sale in these zip codes ranges from a high of 9 months in 63115 down to 1.71 months in 63367. There are a total of 9 zip codes that have a supply greater than triple the median of 0.85 months (2.55 months+).
As the chart below shows, the median price of homes sold in Jefferson County climbed to $200,413 in February from $192,000 the month before and sales plummeted from 220 in January to 81 in February.
In February last year, the median price of homes sold was $180,000 so the price of $200,413 last month represents an 11 percent increase. The number of homes sold in February 2020 was 217 so with just 81 homes sold last month, there was a 63% decline in sales for the month.
As the chart below shows, the median price of homes sold in Franklin County remained at $196,000 in February the same as the month before. There were 82 homes sold in Franklin County in February, one more than the month before.
In February last year, the median price of homes sold was $155,000 so the price of $196,000 last month represents a 26 percent increase. The number of homes sold in February 2020 was 59 so the number of homes sold last month was 39% higher than a year ago.
As the chart below shows, the median price of homes sold in St Charles County jumped to $275,000 last month approaching the record-high price of $279,000 set this past August. This is the second consecutive month the median price has increased and is contrary to the norm. Last year home prices fell to a low of $235,000 in February.
Though home prices didn’t follow the typical pattern and fall during the winter in St Charles County, home sales did. Home sales last month followed that pattern falling to 333 homes sold, similar to last year’s February sales of 320 homes.
As the chart below shows, the median price of homes sold in St Louis City and County jumped to $220,000 last month from $204,000 the month before. While home prices increased during the month, the number of homes sold fell slightly to 1,027 homes in the two-county area, down from 1,085 the month before.
As the table below the chart shows, there have been nearly 18,000 homes sold during the past 12 months in the City and County of St Louis at a median sold price of $220,580. The homes sold during the past 12 months sold for a median price of 100% of the original asking price and took a median time of just 20 days to sell. Can you say Seller’s Market? :)
In spite of having been in a low-inventory market for the past few years, home sales in St Louis have continued strong. In fact, as the home sales trend chart below, exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®, shows home sales trend for the 12-month period ending February 28th was at the highest level in over 10-years.
The chart includes the St Louis 5-County core market (the city of St Louis and the counties of St Louis, St Charles, Franklin, and Jefferson) and shows that for the 12-month period ending last month there were 28,571 homes sold (distressed home sales have been excluded). This is slightly above the 12-month period ending the month before when there were 28,492 homes sold.
As the list below shows, five of the ten zip codes in the St Louis MSA where homes that closed in the past 30 days sold the fastest are in St Louis County. However, the fastest-sold zip code was 63052 in Jefferson County and includes the cities Imperial, Kimmswick, Antonia, and Liguori.
Ten Fastest-Selling Zip Codes In The St Louis MSA
(click on the list for a complete and current list)
There were 4,864 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended January 31, 2021, an increase of 9.6% from a year ago when there were 4,438 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). For the second month in a row, Like last month, all seven counties covered in the report saw an increase in building permits during the most recent 12-month period from the prior 12-month period. Lincoln County saw the largest increase at 52.7% followed by Franklin County at 17.69%.
According to a report just released by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), titled “Housing insecurity and the COVID-19 pandemic“, there are over 2 million homeowners that have fallen behind at least three months on their mortgage payments. This represents a 250% increase from pre-Covid-19 levels and is now at a level we haven’t seen since the height of the Great Recession in 2010.
Homeowners with an FHA mortgage delinquency rates double rate for all loans:
As the chart below shows, homeowners with an FHA mortgage hit a serious mortgage delinquency rate of 10.8% during the 3rd quarter of 2020, with the rate for all mortgages was just under half that at 5.2%.
As the list below shows, seven of the ten school districts in the St Louis MSA where homes are selling the fastest, are in outer-ring counties, with the remaining three districts being in St Louis County. This list is based upon the average time it took homes to sell that closed in the past 30 days and Wright City R-II District came in at the top of the list with an average of 14 days for homes to sell. St Charles County was home to the largest number of the fastest-selling school districts with 4 followed by St Louis County with 3, Warren County with 2, and 1 in Jefferson County.
Ten Fastest-Selling School Districts In The St Louis MSA
(click on the list for a complete and current list)
The St Louis real estate market has started off 2021 strong, but is a change coming? Closings of home sales in January were strong with more sales closing than in January of last year, but with everything going and the uncertainty of the economy will it continue? I address both the current state of the St Louis real estate market, as well as discuss our “leading indicator” data which gives us a glimpse of where the market is headed in the St Louis Real Estate Market Update video you can access below.
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