Over the past couple of months, I have written a couple of articles about a new policy approved by the National Association of REALTORS® in November 2019 known as the “Clear Cooperation Policy”. While I’m not sure how closely consumers are watching, or if they even care at all about the policy at this point, REALTORS® have definitely been following the policy and have been pretty vocal about their thoughts on the policy, both for and against.
Before I go on, I should disclose that I currently serve as Chairman of the Board for MARIS (Mid-America Regional Information Systems) which is the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) that serves St Louis area REALTORS® as well as several other markets throughout the state of Missouri. In addition, I’m a broker-owner at MORE, REALTORS®, arguably one of the most technology-forward real estate brokerages and a leaders in the digital marketing world, so I have strong feelings from both sides of the fence, so to speak.
Now, back to the new policy, MLS 8.0 as it is known in the industry. For members of MARIS, which, as I mentioned, includes all REALTORS® throughout the St Louis metro area, the new policy goes into effect on April 28th.
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So what is the new MLS policy and how will it affect consumers?
From a buyers perspective, I think the new rules are a benefit in that there will be more transparency with regard to listings that are on the market, or are listed and will be available soon, to both them as well as their buyer’s agents. The reason for this is, under the new rules, listing agents will be required to put all listings in the MLS within one business day of doing any marketing which would include putting a for sale sign (or coming soon sign) in the yard. While “putting it in the MLS” doesn’t mean they have to make the listing information publicly available (that is an option) but they have to at least enter it as “coming soon” which means that the roughly 14,000 agents that are members of the regional MLS (MARIS) will be aware of the listing and have access to information on it including the listing agent information. In fact, the only way a listing agent will be able to avoid letting other agents know about their listing is by giving it a “withheld” status in the MLS, which means no one outside that agents office, would be aware of the listing and there cannot be any marketing done at all not even a for sale sign in the yard.
From a sellers perspective, I don’t think there are really any “benefits” to sellers from the new rule over where things stand today however, there is only limited negative impact on sellers as a result of the new rules. The reason I say there are no additional benefits to the seller that is because instead of opening up more marketing and promotion opportunities to the seller, or the listing agent it puts more restrictions on what the listing agent can do. The new rules, to some extent you could say, dictate to the listing agent how they will market and promote the listing. One might ask, but wouldn’t the seller want their home in the MLS, isn’t that part of the reason they listed it with a REALTOR®? The short answer is yes, for most sellers, if their listing is not entered into the MLS at some point prior to accepting an offer, they are likely leaving money on the table.
However, having said that, the timing of when to put it in the MLS can be critical and, if a listing agent is forced to put the listing in the MLS too early, or prevented from doing any marketing or promotion of it beforehand, it can also result in the seller leaving money on the table. The reason for this is the new rules limit how long a listing may stay in “coming soon” status to 21 days. While 21 days is long enough in many instances for a seller to prepare their home for the market, often times it is not. In addition, it is common for a listing agent to get a property listed in advance of when, for timing reasons, the seller is really ready to sell. A lot of very good listing agents use this period to market the home and create interest in it in advance of it actually being available for showings and sale. This type of marketing, especially in this low-inventory market, works very well and often results in drawing literally a house full of people to the listing once it is finally on the market and available for showings. It is common for the result to be multiple offers, oftentimes over the asking price, which, while maybe it’s not great for buyers, it’s great for sellers! So, many agents feel (including me) that restricting marketing of a listing in advance of when it is actually available for showings and sale is not in the sellers best interest.
Let not your hearts be troubled though sellers! There are firms out there, such as mine, MORE, REALTORS® that embrace change and see things such as this as yet another opportunity to set ourselves apart from the other real estate companies out there. To do so, we use our unique digital marketing skills, along with our experience in the industry, to maximize the marketing for our sellers to make sure we are doing everything possible to make sure our sellers get the best price and terms for their home while still staying within the rules we have to abide by. (Ok, shameless self-promotion, but hey, I need a little something for all this hard work, right?)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
Opportunity Zones were created by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that President Donald J. Trump signed into law on December 22, 2017. Opportunity zones were established to help communities that are economically-distressed and work by promoting private investment and development through the use of tax incentives. There are a total of 8.760 designated Qualified Opportunity Zones in the U.S. and there are 140 Opportunity Zones in Missouri.
Opportunity zones appear to have had a positive impact on the housing market in several opportunity zones in the St Louis area. According to data just released by ATTOM Date Solutions, 10 of the 19 Opportunity Zones in the St Louis area have seen at least double digit increase in home prices in the past year and two of them triple digit increases!
You can find complete information about Opportunity Zones, including an interactive map for Missouri Opportunity zones, a complete list of all opportunity zones in the U.S. videos from webinars hosted by the Missouri Department of Economic Development (DED) and more at MissouriOpportunityZones.com
St Louis Area Opportunity Zones 4th Quarter 2019 Median Home Prices
It’s been over six years since the shooting of Michael Brown brought riots to the streets of Ferguson and national attention on the small north county municipality. The end result was quite devastating to businesses and the community as a whole and many predicted Ferguson’s demise.
One year later, I did an analysis of the impact on the housing market in an article on St Louis Real Estate News in which I revealed market data showing that while the results were somewhat mixed, the housing market in Ferguson didn’t really appear to have been too negatively impacted at the time.
Now that it’s been over six years since the indecent I decided to take another look at the Ferguson housing market to see how it has fared. I created a 10 year chart for Ferguson which is shown below and reveals that not only did the shooting and riots not appear to have much of a negative effect on the housing market at the time, the Ferguson market has continued to improve at a pretty steady pace. The median home price of homes sold in Ferguson during 2014 was $34,000 and in 2019 it was $70,000, an increase of 106% in 5 years, or an average of about 21% per year! The time it took to sell a home rose a little in the year following the shooting but has pretty much been on a downward trend ever since.
So, probably to the surprise of many, the Ferguson housing market seems to be quite healthy in spite of all the city has been through!
As you may have noticed, I’ve been pretty optimistic about the outlook for the real estate market this year however, that is not always the case as I call it like I see it. The reason for my optimism is based upon what a true data geek like myself would base it upon, data! So, what’s the data that has me believing 2020 will be a good year for the housing market in St Louis and beyond? Several things:
As I have been reporting here for the past couple of years now, mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates have continued to decline which show the strength of the economy as a whole as well as the housing industry.
As the US Economic Indicators charts below show, since peaking around 2010, the unemployment rate, 30-year mortgage rate and mortgage delinquency rates have all steadily declines to either record lows or at least the lowest rate in recent history.
As the St Louis unemployment, home prices and rent chart below shows, unemployment in St Louis has fallen to the lowest level in decades and the relationship between home prices and rents show home prices lagging behind rents indicating that we’ll likely see continued, good housing appreciation rates.
As the 30-year fixed rate mortgage chart below shows, mortgage rates are at near record low rates giving buyers much more buying power. In my market update video I shared here a day or two ago I illustrate just how much more buying power this translates into.
As I reported last week, St Louis home sales last year managed to top the prior year slightly, in spite of the low-inventory market we have been stuck in. This shows the demand that is out there.
As I reported earlier this week, the home sales trend for 2020 in St Louis is in positive territory has well.
The St Louis real estate market is off to a good start for 2020! The home sales trends going into this year are encouraging and, coupled with the strong economy we are in, has me very confident that 2020 is going to be a great year for the St Louis real estate market!MORE buying power!
In addition, long term mortgage interest rates just dropped again giving buyers more buying power! See the example in my video of just how much less a home will cost you today payment-wise than 14 months ago, even after appreciation has pushed prices up.
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.
You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
The St Louis home sales trend jumped in December when sales for the prior 12-months broke through the 27,000 mark to 27,149. The trend continued into January of this year, as there were 27,159 homes sold in the 12-month period ended January 31, 2020. This is a good start for 2020 and is a great leading indicator of how the market is going to do this year. Add lower mortgage interest rates to this (the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 3.45% last week) and the strongest economy in decades and we have a recipe for a great housing market!
St Louis 5-County Market Home Sales Trend – Past 5 Years
There were 70,000 new homes sold in the Midwest Region of the United States during 2019, a decline of 7.2% from 2018 when there were 76,000 new homes sold, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
As the table below shows, there were 40,000 new homes for sale in the Mideast at the end of 2019, which translates into roughly a 7 month supply of new homes for sale.
During the fourth quarter of 2019, 10.2% of the homeowners in St Louis with a mortgage, were underwater on their mortgage, meaning they were in a negative-equity position, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Research. As the table below shows, this is the lowest level of St Louis homeowners that are seriously underwater since 2013 when this data was first tracked. This continues the trend that began in the price quarter with the then lowest rate at 10.5%.
St Louis Underwater (Negative-Equity) Homeowners
(Click on table for live, complete data from 2013-Present)
Homes that sold in the 63048 zip code in the last 30 days were on the market an average of just 30 days before selling, making this the fastest sold zip code in the St Louis MSA. The 63048 zip code area in Jefferson County includes the cities of Pevely, Festus and Herculaneum.
Five of the top ten zip codes were in St Louis County, two in Jefferson County and one in the Counties of St Charles, St Louis City and Madison, Il.
St Louis Zip Codes Where Homes Sold The Fastest In Last 30 Days
Throughout 2019 St Louis home sales were running slightly behind the prior year and looked like that is how the year would end but, thanks to a strong finish, St Louis home sales for 2019 ended up being slightly higher than the year before. As the report below shows, the 5-county core St Louis real estate market (without distressed sales) ended 2019 with 25,946 home sales, up 0.71% from the year before when there we 25,674 homes sold. The median price of homes sold during 2019 (non-distressed) was $215,000, an increase fo 4.88% from the year before when the median home price was $205,000.
St Louis 5-County Core Market Home Sales and Prices 2019
During the 4th quarter of this year, the homeownership rate for the St Louis MSA was 68.3%, a slight decline from the month before, but St Louis ended the year with an average homeownership rate of 68.1%, the highest end of year average in 4 years!
St Louis MSA Homeownership Rate – Past 5 Years
(Click on the table below for St Louis homeownership rates by quarter from 2005-present)
I’ll concede the fact that not everyone is as much of a data geek as I am and, in fact, a more accurate statement would probably be that most people are not, including the majority of home buyers and sellers. Sure, home buyers and sellers are interested in home prices and what the potential value of the home is they are looking to buy or sell, but most leave the real data analysis to their agent. After all, part of being a professional real estate agent is knowing the market as well as knowing how to research the market and apply market data to their client’s situation.
However, don’t assume all real estate agents are created equal in this regard and that they all know the market as well as they should or do the research they should. There are many great agents that do these things very well but there are a bunch, probably an equal number, if not more, that don’t. Even the agents that do it well are still limited to the data resources they have available to them.
Today, as we celebrate the life of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. who is best known as a leader in the Civil Rights movement, I wanted to look at how his efforts also ultimately resulted in the Fair Housing Act, which sought to end discrimination in housing.
Through the efforts of the civil rights movement, Dr. King and others were able to get the attention of our nation resulting in President John F. Kennedy, in a nationally televised address on June 6, 1963, urging the nation to ” take action toward guaranteeing equal treatment of every American regardless of race.” Shortly after his address to the nation, President Kennedy proposed that Congress consider civil rights legislation that would address rights in many areas such as voting, public accommodations, school desegregation but not housing at the time. Even though President Kennedy was assassinated on November 22, 1963, his efforts beforehand still resulted in the Civil Rights Act of 1964 when, then President, Lyndon Johnson, signed into law on July 2, 1964.
The Civil Rights Act of 1964 prohibited discrimination in public places, provided for integration of schools and made employment discrimination illegal, however, it did not address housing.
Four years later came the Civil Rights Act of 1968, which is also referred to, and more commonly known, as the “Fair Housing Act of 1968″, which expanded the original civil rights act to include prohibiting discrimination concerning the sale, rental, and financing of housing based on race, religion, national origin or sex. President Lyndon Johnson signed the Fair Housing Act into law on April 11, 1968, one week after Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. was assassinated.
The St Louis real estate market had a strong finish in 2019! One of the many great things for the St Louis housing market about a strong finish in 2019 is that 2020 begins strongly as well! January will be a key month in terms of whether the trend will continue or whether December’s uptick was an isolated event.
Another encouraging thing about the real estate market is that long term mortgage interest rates remain low! See in the video just how powerful this is! How a house today will actually cost you less than a little over a year ago, even after factoring in home price appreciation!
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.
You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
Foreclosure rates and mortgage delinquency rates have steadily declined over the past couple of years as the housing market, as well as the overall economy, have both continued to improve and thrive. Nonetheless, foreclosures still take place and during 2019 the St Louis MSA had the 8th highest foreclosure rate of the 20 largest MSAs, according to the latest data released by Attom Data Solutions.
As the table below shows, during 2019, in the St Louis MSA there was 1 foreclosure action for every 232 housing units. Philadelphia, PA, had the highest foreclosure rate of the 20-largest MSAs with one foreclosure action for every 133 housing units and San Francisco had the lowest with one foreclosure action for every 631 housing units.
2019 Foreclosure Rates – 20 Largest MSAs
Copyright 2020 – St Louis Real Estate News – All rights reserved – Data Source ATTOM Data Solutions
There were 3,637 condos sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market during 2019, a decline of 2.28% from 2018 when there were 3,722 condos sold. As I reported yesterday, 2019 St Louis home sales were down 1.18% in 2019, just over half of the rate of decline of condo sales.
As the STL Market Report below shows (available exclusively through MORE, REALTORS), the median price of condos sold during 2019 was $155,000, an increase of 4.15% from the year before. In contrast, home prices increased by 5.85% during the same period.
Going into 2020, the inventory of homes for sale remains low and favors sellers. Currently, the supply of homes for sale is just over 2 months.
STL Market Report For The St Louis 5-County Core Condo Market
There were 27,076 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market during 2019, a decline of 1.18% from 2018 when there were 27,399 homes sold. As the STL Market Report below shows (available exclusively through MORE, REALTORS), the median price of homes sold during 2019 was $208,000, an increase of 5.85% from the year before.
Going into 2020, the inventory of homes for sale remains low and favors sellers. Currently, the supply of homes for sale is just over 2 months.
STL Market Report For The St Louis 5-County Core Market
The outlook for the St Louis real estate market for the new year looks pretty good. Watch for the release of our St Louis Housing Market Forecast for 2020 coming out in the next few days to get some insight into this year’s real estate market here in St Louis.
The maximum loan amount for an FHA-Insured home loan on January 1, 2020, will increase from $314.827 to $331,760 for a single-family home purchased in the St Louis metro area. FHA insured home loans have lower credit standards than a typical conventional loan, require a downpayment of just 3.5% and allow all of the purchasers closing costs to be paid by the seller (up to a limit) thereby extending the opportunity of homeownership to a wider audience.
Below are all of the FHA Mortgage Limits for the St Louis MSA for 2020:
One-Family dwellings – $331,760
Two-Family dwellings – $424,800
Three-Family dwellings – $513,450
Four-Family dwellings – $638,100
To find out more about FHA home loans, or to get pre-approved for an FHA home loan click on the button below to connect with Mike McCarthy.
Buying a home for veterans will get a little easier come January 1, 2020, especially those veterans moving up to a more expensive home, as a result of the Blue Water Navy Veterans Act of 2019 signed into law by President Trump in June 2019. The primary focus of the Act was to provide disability benefits to veterans who served in Vietnam, it also made significant changes to the VA Home Loan benefit available to all veterans. The VA home loan changes go into effect on January 1, 2020. Below are highlights of the changes to the VA home loan benefit:
Conforming Loan Limits – There will no longer be a limit, or cap, on the amount for a no-downpayment home loan to a veteran.
VA funding fee increase – The VA charges a funding fee to support the VA home loan program. The fee is currently 0.15% for Veterans and Servicemembers and on January 1st will increase to 0.30%.
Purple Heart – The VA funding fee will be waived for active Servicemembers who have earned a Purple Heart.
Native America Direct Loan – As of January 1st, the existing cap of $80,000 will be removed for Veterans using their entitlement for a VA Native American Direct loan to purchase (or build) a home on Federal trust land.
To find out more about the changes to the VA home loan program, click on the button below to connect with Mike McCarthy,
Homes in the Lincoln County zip code of 63362 sold the fastest in the past 30-days with an average time to sell of just 40 days, according to the latest data available from MORE, REALTORS®.
As the list below shows, 4 of the remaining 10 fastest-sold zips in the St Louis MSA were in St Charles County, 3 in St Louis County, 1 in Franklin County and 1 in St Clair County, IL.
Fastest SOLD Zip Codes In The St Louis MSA In Past 30 Days
After peaking in May 2018 with 27,829 homes sold in the prior 12-months, the St Louis home sales trend has trended downward to 26,830 homes sold in the 12-month period ended November 30, 2019. This marks the lowest home sales trend for the St Louis 5-County core market in over three years.
In spite of this statistical fact, it should be noted that the difference in home sales for the 12-month period ended November 30, 2019, from the same period a year ago, is just under 3%, so it is a pretty modest decline.
St Louis 5-County Core Market Home Sales Trend – Past 5 Years
Wishing you and your family and loved ones a very Merry and Blessed Christmas!
“And so it was, that, while they were there, the days were accomplished that she should be delivered. And she brought forth her firstborn son, and wrapped him in swaddling clothes, and laid him in a manger; because there was no room for them in the inn.” Luke 2:6-7
The home sales trend was, as our chart below illustrates, on the decline in St Charles County since summer last year but then, in October reversed course. Now, for the second-consecutive month, the St Charles County home sales trend is on the rise possibly confirming that September 2019 was the bottom, with 5,761 homes sold in the 12-month period ending in September. For the 12-month period ended November 30, 2019, there were 5,814 homes sold or just under 1% more than when sales hit the bottom in September. The period ended in November saw just 23 more homes sold then the period ended in October, but it still sent the trend upward nonetheless.
The gains are modest so time will tell if the trend will hold course….
With such small gains, it won’t take much to stop this upward trend in home sales, but, within the next two months, we should know for sure if the upward movement in home sales can last.
Most home buyers and sellers understand the seasonality of the residential real estate market with spring being the “hot” market and winter being a slow one. This often leads to many sellers with homes that have not sold, opting to take them off the market until after the holidays with the plan to come back when the market gets better. Is this a good plan though? As a seller are you missing out on selling your home by taking your home off the market at a time when there is so little competition and at a time that the buyers that are out looking are usually very serious?
Well, first and foremost, if, as a seller, you are taking a break from dealing with keeping your home show-ready, making it available for showings, etc so that you can enjoy time with your family and friends then by all means that is a great plan. However, if you are taking a listing hiatus because of “the market” or “the time of year”, you may want to rethink it.
715 homes and condos went under contract within a week of Christmas last year…
As the table below shows, there were 715 homes that went under contract within a week of Christmas last year (either in the week proceeding or week after). So, during what many consider a “dead” time for real estate, quite a few homes sold. During 2018, there were a total of 31,121 homes and condos sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market so, if we were to simply determine on average how many homes sold in a two-week period we would come up with 1,196. At 715 sales for this two-week Christmas period, that is just about 60% of an average two-week period, but it’s still rather significant.
Homes and Condos That Went Under Contract Within 1 Week Of Christmas 2018 In The St Louis 5-County Core
The foreclosure rate for the St Louis MSA during October decreased 6.0 percent from the month and was down 4.2% from November 2018, according to data just released from ATTOM Data Solutions. As the table below shows, there were, like last month, some mixed results. For example, St Charles County saw a 20% increase in foreclosures from the month before while the City of St Louis saw a 27% decrease from the month before. The U.S. as a whole saw a bigger decline in foreclosure activity than the St Louis MSA did.
There were 762 homes “flipped” in the St Louis metro area during the third quarter of 2019, or 6.3% of the total number of homes sold in the St Louis metro area during the quarter, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Solutions. This is a decline of 15% from the prior quarter as well as a 5% decrease from the prior year. As our table below shows, on a national level, house flipping accounted for just 5.4% of the homes sold during the 3rd quarter of this year, which is a 9% decrease from the quarter before and a 4% increase from a year ago.
Definition of a “flipped” home…
For the purposes of this report, a flipped home is considered to be any home or condo that was sold during the first quarter of this year in an arms-length sale that had previously had an arms-length sale within the prior 12 months. Since homeowners don’t tend to buy a home only to turn around and resell it within a year, when this does occur it is typically the result of an investor buying a property, renovating it, then reselling it.
The home sales trend in St Charles County peaked in April 2017 with 6,118 homes sold in the 12-month period ended April 30, 2017. Since then, the home sales trend fell to closer to the 6,000 home mark until hitting a near peak again in August 2018 with 6,111 homes sold in the 12 month period ending that month. After that, the home sales trend in St Charles County has fairly consistently trended downward until hitting bottom in September with 5,759 homes sold in the 12-month period ended September 30, 2019, nearly a 6% fall in home sales from the recent peak. This marked the lowest home sales trend for St Charles County since April 2016.
The St Charles County home sales trend has reversed course…
The good news is, for the past two months, home sales in St Charles County, as the chart below illustrates, have trended upward hitting 5,809 homes sold in the 12-month period ended November 30, 2019, a 1.2% increase in the trend from August 2019.
The good news just keeps coming for the residential real estate industry! The most recent is from a report just released by CoreLogic showing the mortgage delinquency rate in the U.S. was at 3.8%, the lowest rate in at least 20 years! In addition, not one state in the country had an increase in overall delinquency rates in September.
Foreclosure Inventory Reaches Low as well…
The foreclosure inventory rate for September was 0.4%, another 20+ year low!
Between low, low-interest rates and the seasonally low home prices, there is no better time to buy a home! Just like every year, home prices are declining and will continue to decline over the next few weeks until they hit their “winter bottom” and then start the climb back to spring prices. All the while, mortgage interest rates remain low, giving you more buying power than a year ago, even at the higher home prices!
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.
You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
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