New home construction in St. Louis during October held at about the same trend as September with 4,289 new home permits issued for the 12-month period ended October 31, 2019, a decline of 8.04% from a year ago when there were 4,664 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri. This is about the same as September when the 12-month trend was down 8.05% from the prior 12-month period.
As the table below shows, 4 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago. This is the same as last month, with the same four counties on the decline. For the 9th month in a row, Franklin County suffered the biggest loss at 41.31%. At the other end of the spectrum, St Charles County had the largest increase at 7.55% and took removed Warren County from the number one slot after Warren County had 9 consecutive months of the highest growth in permits.
Are you one of those people like me that didn’t go out and fight the crowds on Black Friday in search of deals and instead waited until today to catch the Cyber Monday deals online from the comfort of your home or office? Or perhaps you were out Friday shopping and now you are back at it online? In any event, don’t forget that Cyber Monday deals come 7 days a week this time of the year in real estate! That’s right! Like I discussed here on Black Friday, some of the best deals of the year on St Louis real estate occur from now until the end of the year.
As the STL Market Chart (exclusively provided by MORE, REALTORS) below illustrates, in the St Louis 5-County Core market home prices (the red line) peaked in July and, with the exception of a little uptick in August, have trended downward since reaching the lowest point since April of this year. St Louis home sales (the pink line) have shown pretty much the same result, hitting the lowest level in November since February.
It shouldn’t be a surprise…
What is happening in the St Louis real estate market presently does not come as a surprise because home sales are very seasonal and, the seasonal fluctuation we are seeing now, happens every year. This is why I chose a 25-month chart below, so you can see the last year was pretty much the same pattern. also, I wanted to show that prices continued to fall last year until hitting bottom in February of this year and I would expect a similar pattern this year. That does not mean however that you want to wait until February to buy as the prices shown are based upon closed deals. The typical real estate transaction takes 4-6 weeks to close, so those “February” home prices were from sales transactions that originated in December and January for the most part. Therefore, from now until the end of the year the best time to buy a home in St Louis from a value standpoint!
As you get ready to head to the stores today for all those Black Friday bargains, perhaps you should jump on St Louis Real Estate Search and find a few houses to look at as well? Well, if you have been thinking about buying a home, you would do well to buy now rather than wait for spring. As the table below shows, based upon data just released from ATTOM Data Solutions, people in Missouri that buy homes in October, November or December get the best deals of the year! This may account for the fact that there were 25% more homes sold during the 4th quarter than during the 1st quarter.
Now is the BEST time to buy in St Louis!
As the chart at the bottom shows, home prices in St Louis have hit their lowest point during January in 2 of the prior 3 years and in February on the third one. These prices are reported as of the closing of the sale, so if prices are typically the lowest on homes that closed in January, given that the typical sale takes 4-6 weeks to close, that makes from now until the end of the year the best time to buy a home in St Louis from a value standpoint!
Thanksgiving began in the U.S. in 1789 after the issuance of the proclamation below made by President George Washington and was initially a harvest festival. Thanksgiving did not actually become a federal holiday in the U.S. until 1864 when President Abraham Lincoln proclaimed it “as a day of thanksgiving and praise to Almighty God, the beneficent Creator, and Ruler of the Universe.”.
Thanksgiving Proclamation
By the President of the United States of America, a Proclamation.
Whereas it is the duty of all nations to acknowledge the providence of Almighty God, to obey His will, to be grateful for His benefits, and humbly to implore His protection and favor; and—Whereas both Houses of Congress have, by their joint committee, requested me “to recommend to the people of the United States a day of public thanksgiving and prayer, to be observed by acknowledging with grateful hearts the many and signal favors of Almighty God, especially by affording them an opportunity peaceably to establish a form of government for their safety and happiness:” Continue reading “Happy Thanksgiving!“
Annually, the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) does a massive survey of people that purchased and sold a home in the prior year to gather information about them and their transaction. This is done using a 125 question survey that was sent to nearly 160,000 people, in randomly sampled geographic areas, that purchased or sold a home in the prior year. The results are published by NAR in their “Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers“. From this publication, some great information is obtained (in my humble opinion, the best and most accurate information available) about home buyers and sellers as well as the process they went through, the homes they bought or sold as well as about their agent if they used one.
Sellers’ appetite for selling their own homes remains at a near-record low…
As the chart below, which covers the time period from 2001 to 2019, illustrates, the percentage of homes sold using a real estate agent or broker (the blue bars) has increased from 79% in 2001 to 89% in this year’s survey. Meanwhile, the percentage of sellers that sold their own homes “For Sale By Owner” (FSBO) declined from 13% in 2001 to 8% in this year’s survey.
As the table below shows, from MORE, REALTORS® exclusive STL Market Report, the overall St Louis MSA housing market has a current supply of homes for sale equal to just a little over two-and-a-half months making it very much favor sellers. The St Louis 5-County Core market (city of St Louis and counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin) have, as the second table shows, an even lower supply of homes for sale with a 2.32 month supply.
However, as the list at the bottom shows, there are some municipalities within the St Louis area that are buyers markets, 12 in total to be exact. A healthy inventory, one that is considered “balanced” and not favoring buyers or sellers, is generally 5 or 6 months, so to make this list of buyers markets there must be greater than a 6-month supply of home currently for sale. At the top of the list is Pine Lawn a small municipality in northern St Louis county, followed by Swansea IL and then Town and Country. Town and Country with 4 homes sold in the past month and 54 active listings currently has a 13.5 month supply of homes for sale.
In August, the overall mortgage delinquency rate (30 or more days past due) was 3.7% for the U.S. which is a 0.2 percentage point decline from a year ago and is the lowest overall delinquency rate in 14-years, according to date just released by CoreLogic. The delinquency rate for August of 3.7% marks the lowest delinquency rate during the month of August in 20 years. The serious delinquency rate (120+ days late) decline of 1.2% a year ago to just 1.0% in August 2019, nearly a record low. The Foreclosure Rate fell in August 2019 to 0.4% from 0.5% a year ago.
Missouri mortgage delinquency rates are low as well…
During August 2019, the overall mortgage delinquency rate for Missouri was exactly the same as the national rate, 3.7%. The serious delinquency rate in Missouri was 1.1%, just slightly above the national rate, and the foreclosure rate was 0.2%, half of the national rate.
After peaking in May 2018 with 27,829 homes sold in the prior 12-months, the St Louis home sales trend has trended downward until hitting 26,852 homes sold in the 12-month period ended August 31, 2019. However, for the two months since this low, St Louis home sales have trended upward slightly, reaching 26,888 homes sold in the 12-month period ended October 31, 2019.
St Louis 5-County Core Market Home Sales Trend – Past 5 Years
The foreclosure rate for the St Louis MSA during October increased 11.3 percent from the month before however, it was still nearly 25 percent (24.5%) lower than October 2018, according to data just released from ATTOM Data Solutions. As the table below shows, there were some real mixed results this month. For example, St Charles County saw a 150% increase in foreclosures from the month before increasing from 10 in September to 25 in October but is down over 60% from October 2018. The city of St Louis is the only county of significant size in the St Louis MSA that saw both an increase in foreclosures from the month before (65.8^) as well as an increase from a year ago (43.2%).
Yesterday, the board of directors for the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) approved a new policy dubbed the “Clear Cooperation Policy” which goes into effect January 1, 2020, and Multiple Listing Service’s (MLS) have until May 1, 2020, to adopt and implement.
While the vote by the board of directors, 729 in favor of it to 70 opposed, may not reflect it, there is a lot of controversy about this policy among real estate agents and brokers that are members of NAR. The two main changes this new policy bring about are that agents would be mandated to put, for all intents and purposes, 100% of their listings in the MLS system within one business-day of marketing the listing (marketing is defined to include putting a sign in the yard, telling someone about the listing, etc) and “MLS-exempt” listings will no longer be permitted.
Better for the consumer?
Proponents of the new NAR MLS policy say that this will be better for consumers by:
Making all available listings show in the MLS;
Giving more exposure to sellers of their listings by not permitting “MLS exempt”, “off-MLS”, “Coming Soon” or other marketing methods that may not include putting the listing in the MLS, or at least not initially;
Leveling the playing field, making all listings available to all consumers since listings could no longer be marketed through just social media, private networks, etc, but, instead, would be required to be put in the MLS;
Eliminating practices that may violate Fair Housing Laws by limiting what audience a particular listing is exposed to;
Opponents of the new NAR MLS policy argue that it is not better for consumers because:
It eliminates the opportunity for an experienced listing agent to determine, in cooperation with their seller client, the best means and methods to market their home to obtain maximum exposure and the highest price;
Pre-marketing, such as a coming soon promotion on social media before the listing is ready to go in the MLS in an effort to generate buzz and hype over the listing, would be prohibited. This is a method of marketing that, in our current low-inventory market, has been extremely effective in getting maximum exposure, and the highest price, for the seller.
Agents would not be permitted to quietly “test” the market to see how the listing, and/or it’s price, will be received by the market. This is often done by marketing the home before entry in the MLS to establish the right price. Once in the MLS, the days on market start working against the seller, as do price reductions, so coming into the MLS at the right price is essential for the seller.
It prevents a seller from using a REALTOR® when they wish to have their property marketed in a private manner and not publicly. This happens often when the seller is a high-profile individual that for security and/or privacy reasons, does not want photos and details about their home (including that they are selling it) publicly known. It can also occur in the case of a divorce, a distressed-type sale, etc;
Time will tell whether this proves to be good, or bad, for the industry and the consumer.
The St Louis real estate market trends remain steady and consistent! The St Louis home sales and price trends give me an optimistic outlook for next year. Low-interest rates continue to offset some of the cost of the increases in home prices that have occurred. Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.
You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
During the third quarter of 2019, 10.5% of the homeowners in St Louis with a mortgage, were underwater on their mortgage, meaning they were in a negative-equity position, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Research. As the table below shows, this is the lowest level of St Louis homeowners that are seriously underwater since 2013 when this data was first tracked.
St Louis Underwater (Negative-Equity) Homeowners – 2013-2019
As of the end of the third quarter of this year, 18.2% of the homeowners in St Louis were “equity-rich”, meaning their mortgage total is less than 50% of their homes’ current value, according to the latest data available from ATTOM Data Research. As the table below shows, this is the highest rate of equity-rich homeowners in St Louis since ATTOM began tracking this data in 2013.
Equity-Rich St Louis Homeowners – 3rd Quarter 2019
Thanks to a strong economy and low-interest rates, the actual cost of a home today in St Louis is lower than it was a year ago, in spite of the fact that the median price of homes sold in St Louis has increased by 5.64% in the past year. Most people buying a typical home in St Louis finance nearly all of the purchase price, therefore, the cost of financing plays a significant role in the true cost of a home. Buyers decide what they can afford (as do lenders) based upon the house payment, not the price of the home.
The cost of a home today in St Louis versus a year ago…
As our STL Market Chart below shows, the median price of a home sold in the St Louis 5-County core market in October of this year was $200,000, 5.3% higher than last October when the median price of homes sold was $189,900. However, as our mortgage interest rate chart below shows, the rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is currently 3.78%, over a full percentage point less than October 2018 when the rate was 4.83%.
If we do a little math and use our mortgage payment calculator, we find that if someone bought a median-priced home in St Louis in October of 2018 at $189,900 and financed 100% of the purchase at the current rate at the time (4.83%), their payment would have been $1,027 per month. If a person were to buy a median-priced home in St Louis today at $200,000 and finance 100% of the purchase at the current rate of 3.78%, their payment would be $958. So, even though the price of the home increased over 5%, the payment on the home (at current prices) actually dropped by 7.2% showing just how much impact interest rates have on the cost of a home.
What are buyers waiting for?
We are entering the “slow season” for real estate, winter, a time when, year after year, home prices typically decrease until hitting a low around January and then start to increase as the weather warms. Therefore, we are in the period when home prices will be the lowest they will be for the year, interest rates are near the lowest they have been, so, if I were considering buying a home, I would jump into action as I just don’t see how it’s going to get better than this anytime soon.
The St Louis MSA homeowner vacancy rate during the 3rd quarter of this year was 1.8%, an increase from 0.3% the prior quarter and the highest rate since the 4th quarter of 2016 when the rate was 3.0%, according to data recently released by the U.S. Census Bureau. The median vacancy rate for 2019 though, at 0.5%, is still at a record low.
The homeowner vacancy rate represents the percentage of total listings of homes for sale that are vacant.
St Louis Homeowner Vacancy Rates – 2016 – Present
(click on table for complete data from 2005 – present)
The St Louis MSA rental vacancy rate during the 3rd quarter of this year was 10.6%, an increase from 7.6% the prior quarter and the highest rate since the 1st quarter of 2016 when the rate was 12.2%, according to data recently released by the U.S. Census Bureau. Last year, the median rental vacancy rate for the St Louis MSA for the year was 6.8%, a 13 year low.
St Louis Rental Vacancy Rates – 2016 – Present
(click on table for complete data from 2005 – present)
During the 3rd quarter of this year, the homeownership rate for the St Louis MSA was 69.5% giving St Louis the 13th highest homeownership rate of the 75 largest MSA’s in the country, according to the latest date from the U.S. Census Bureau. St Louis continues to improve in the homeownership rankings, moving from 26th in the 1st quarter, to 21st in the 2nd quarter and now to the 13th highest homeownership rate in the U.S.!
As the table below shows, the North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota MSA had the highest homeownership rate during the quarter at 76.7% and for the 3rd quarter in a row, Fresno, CA MSA had the lowest at 47.9%.
Homes in the 63304 Zip Code area of St Charles Cunty sold faster in the past 30 days than in any other zip code in St Charles County, according to the latest data available from MORE, REALTORS®. Homes that closed in the past 30 days in 63304 took an average time of just 23 days to sell.
As the list below shows, the 63776 and 63368 zip code areas weren’t far behind. The slowest-selling St Charles County zip code in the past 30 days was the 63367 zip code area where th average time to sell a home was more than double the fastest-selling zip code area.
Fastest SOLD Zip Codes In St Charles County In Past 30 Days
Homes in Rock Hill sold faster in the past 30 days than in any other city in the St Louis MSA, according to the latest data available from MORE, REALTORS®. Homes that closed in the past 30 days in Rock Hill took an average time of just 12 days to sell.
As the list below shows, 6 of the 10 fastest-sold cities in the St Louis MSA were in St Louis County, 3 in St Charles County and 1 in Jefferson County.
Fastest SOLD Cities In The St Louis MSA In Past 30 Days
The median price of homes sold in Jefferson County during the past 12-months was $179,900, an increase of 6.83% from the prior 12-month period when the median price was $168,400. As the STL Market Report (an exclusive report available only from MORE, REALTORS®) shows, home sales declined slightly (1%) during the same period and the inventory remains low with a listing supply of just 2.74 months.
As the STL Market Chart at the bottom illustrates (also exclusively available only from MORE, REALTORS®), home prices in Jefferson County have had the normal, seasonal, fluctuations but have been steadily trending upward over the past five years. Home prices peaked early in the spring season in May of this year at $205,000 and have been slipping into the normal “winter lull” and will continue to slide until sometime between December and February when they typically bottom out. Last year, home prices peaked in July then fell 9.5% by September and this year Jefferson County home prices have fallen just over 10% since peaking in May. I expect home prices in Jefferson County to continue their upward trend albeit at a lower rate of appreciation than we have seen recently.
There were 13,181 homes sold in St Louis County in the 12-month period ending September 30, 2019, a decline of 3.2% from a year ago when there were 13,618 homes sold in the prior 12-months. For September, the home sale trend ticked upward slightly and has been fairly steady the prior 4 months.
Prices on the rise and inventory is low in St Louis County..
As the STL Market Report for St Louis County below the chart shows, there is just a 2.45 month supply of homes for sale in St Louis County and the median price of homes sold has increased 6.09% from a year ago.
The median price of homes sold in St Charles County during the past 12-months was $243,900, an increase of 6.09% from the prior 12-month period when the median price was $229,900. As the STL Market Report (an exclusive report available only from MORE, REALTORS®) shows, home sales declined over 5 percent during the same period and the inventory remains low with a listing supply of just 2.37 months.
As the STL Market Chart at the bottom illustrates (also exclusively available only from MORE, REALTORS®), home prices in St Charles County have had the normal, seasonal, fluctuations but have been steadily trending upward over the past five years. Home prices peaked in August of this year at $257,500 and have been slipping into the normal “winter lull” and will continue to slide until around January or February when they typically bottom out. Last year, home prices peaked in June then fell 4.2% by September and this year, even though home prices peaked just last month, have fallen over 5% already since. I expect home prices in St Charles County will see some correction going forward and anticipate less of a spike in home prices come spring than we saw last year. Last year, in St Charles County, prices increased by nearly 14% in the 4-month period from the seasonal low in February to the peak in June.
There were 3,379 homes sold in Jefferson County in the 12-month period ending September 30, 2019, a very slight decline of about 1% from a year ago when there were 3,413 homes sold in the prior 12-months. For the past three months, the 12-month home sales trend in Jefferson County has been amazingly consistent, with data for July and September being identical and August being off by just 1 home sale.
Prices on the rise and inventory is low in Jefferson County..
As the STL Market Report for Jefferson County below the chart shows, there is just a 2.75 month supply of homes for sale in Jefferson County. The fact that Jefferson County home prices have risen 6.83% in the past year doesn’t seem to have affected home sales there.
The median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core Market during the past 12-months was $205,000, an increase of 5.13% from the prior 12-month period when the median price was $195,000. As the STL Market Report (an exclusive report available only from MORE, REALTORS®) shows, home sales declined nearly 3 percent during the same period and the inventory remains low with a listing supply of just 2.53 months.
As the STL Market Chart at the bottom illustrates (also exclusively available only from MORE, REALTORS®), home prices in the St Louis 5-County Core Market have had the normal, seasonal, fluctuations but have been steadily trending upward over the past five years. Home prices peaked in June of this year at $230,000 and have been slipping into the normal “winter lull” and will continue to slide until around January or February when they typically bottom out. Last year we saw the same pattern with home prices peaking in June however last year from June to September home prices fell 9.33% and this year they fell 10.87%. This could perhaps be indicative of a little market correction coming with regard to home prices.
There were 5,755 homes sold in St Charles County in the 12-month period ending September 30, 2019, a decline of 5.2% from a year ago when there were 6,070 homes sold in the prior 12-months. This is the lowest 12-month trend since February 2016 when there were 5,676 homes sold in the prior 12-months.
As the chart below illustrates, even with the declining trend in home sales in St Charles County, it is still significantly higher than back in 2014 and 2015.
Lack of listings in St Charles could be part of the problem…
As the STL Market Report for St Charles County below the chart shows, there is just a 2.37 month supply of homes for sale in St Charles County. This lack of supply of homes for sale is no doubt contributing to the declining home sales trend. Also worth noting is the 6% increase in the median home price in St Charles County from a year ago.
New home construction in St. Louis continued its decline, although at a lower rate, with 4,286 new home permits issued for the 12-month period ended September 30, 2019, a decline of 8.05% from a year ago when there were 4,661 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri. This is an improvement from the 12-month period ended August 31, 2019, when the decline was nearly 10% from the year before (9.74%).
As the table below shows, 4 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago. Franklin County again suffered the biggest loss at 43.82% making it the 8th month in a row Franklin County has seen a loss. At the other end of the spectrum, Warren County again had the largest increase at 22.22% and this marks the 9th month in a row of increases for the county. For only the second time in the past 12-months, St Charles County saw an increase in new home permits issued during the period with a 3.79% increase.
St Louis New Home Building Permits – September 2019
The St Louis real estate market is slowing down somewhat as it does every year around this time, but the market still looks good. Low-interest rates continue to offset some of the cost of the increases in home prices that have occurred. Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.
You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com
The St Louis foreclosure rate during the 3rd quarter of this year was 1 in every 766 housing units, a decline of nearly 1% from the prior quarter and a decline of over 27% from a year ago, according to data just released from ATTOM Data Solutions. As the table below shows, 6 of the counties in the St Louis MSA saw an increase in the foreclosure rate during the 3rd quarter from the prior quarter and only two counties saw an increase from a year ago.
St Louis is the top marketing for flipping homes, according to an article published yesterday on Realtor.com. It’s not all just flipping activity however in the article a very notable and credible St Louis industry source (unabashed self-promotion) stated that “flipping is more common in homes in the $175,000-plus range, while many of those listed for $125,000 and less are being turned into rentals, says Norman.”
The Realtor.com article gave an overview of the market data I produced for them so I wanted to share the market data behind the overview.
St Louis Neighborhoods With Large Investor Presence:
63137 Zip Code Area (Bellefontaine Neighbors/Glasgow Village) – 43.5% of housing units are investor-owned
63135 Zip Code Area (Ferguson) – 39.2% of housing units are investor-owned
63033 Zip Code Area (Florissant Area) – 21.8% of housing units are investor-owned
Home sales in the St Louis 5-County Core Market for the 12-month period ended September 30th, 2019 were down just over 3% from the same period a year ago. During the same period, home prices in the St Louis 5-County Core market increased a little over 5% as the report below from MORE, REALTORS shows.
Inventory of homes for sale still favors sellers…
As the report shows, there is just a 2.44 month supply of homes for sale in the St Louis core market which means the St Louis market is still very much a seller’s market.
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