There continue to be conversations by St Louis REALTORS® as well as other industry professionals as to whether or not the market is cooling off somewhat or slowing down. I keep watching the data closely to look for signs of a substantive change and while there are some, the market adjustments appear to be somewhat insignificant at this point. Last month, in an article about July’s market, I pointed out a slight slowing of the trend in July. Now, I’m taking a look at August, specifically, the number of new listings that came on the St Louis real estate market during that month versus the number of new sales during the month.
More new listings in August than a year ago, fewer new sales:
As the STL Real Estate Trends Reports below show (exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®) 3,702 new listings came on the market in the St Louis 5-County core during August, an increase in new St Louis listings of 3.2% from a year ago when there were 3,586 new listings. Conversely, there were 3,861 new sales of homes last month, a decrease in St Louis home sales of 2.2% from a year ago when there were 3,949 new contracts written.
New contracts written exceeded listings again but not by as much margin:
During August 2020, the number of new contracts written on listings exceeded new listings in St Louis by about 10 percent (10.1%). Last month, new sales of St Louis listings only exceed the number of new listings by just over 4 percent (4.2%).
So, as I mentioned, the change in trend is slight, but something worth keeping an eye on.
There has been talk of “the market slowing down” and while there hasn’t been a lot of data to support that, we did see the sales trend slow slightly in July. As the home sales trend chart below shows, exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®, the home sales trend for the 12-month period ending has increased every month of this year over the prior month through June. For the 12-month period ending in June, there were 30,055 homes sold marking the highest record since we’ve been tracking the data, however, for the 12-month period ending in July home sales decreased slightly to 29,974 homes.
More new listings than new sales…
A change I’ve also noticed lately is that the number of new listings hiring the St Louis market is outpacing the number of new sales, a reversal of the trend we saw until recently. As the STL Trends Reports below show, there were 881 new listings in the most recent week and 816 new sales. For the prior week, the trend was the same with 895 new listings and 807 new sales.
In June of this year the Median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market was $266,000, 6.4% higher than the median list price of $250,000 for those homes sold. This breaks the record of 4.4% set in April and is the highest gap we’ve seen between the median sold price and listing price since we’ve been tracking it, In July the gap narrowed though, albeit slightly, with the median price of homes sold coming in at $265,000, 6.0% higher than the median list price of $250,000. Worth noting as well is between June and July, the median list price of homes in the St Louis 5-County core market stayed the same and the median sold price decreased 0.3%..
St Louis 5-County Core – Sold Price to List Price – July 2020 – July 2021 Chart
There were 5,135 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended June 30, 2021 an increase of 12.91% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,548 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). After all seven counties seeing an increase in building permits from the prior period for the prior 4 months, this month six counties covered in the report saw an increase in building permits from the same period a year ago. Also worth noting is that the 12-month total number of permits dropped slightly in June from May’s 5,201 permits and was also just slightly below April’s 5,138 permits.
For the past couple of years now you’ve heard how low the inventory of homes for sale is, and, if you are a buyer, you have no doubt experienced some grief or hardship in buying a home as a result. However, this may be changing. As the table below shows, there are currently 3,565 active listings in the St Louis 5-county core market (city of St Louis and counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin) which based upon the rate of home sales, works out to a supply of 1.41 months. This is a 50% increase from the supply (inventory) from June of 0.94 months. Granted, at 1.41 months, it is still VERY LOW from a historical perspective, but this is something to watch as it could be indicative of a change in the market.
What do the leading indicators show?
We don’t want to base too much on just one report for one month so to drill down a little further lets look at the STL Trends Reports, available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®. Below the table is the New Listings Trends Report which shows for the most recent week reported, new listings were up 23% from the same period a year ago. There were 885 new listings in the St Louis 5-county core market during the week 7/18/21 – 7/24/21 as compared with 718 new listings for the same period last year. On the other side of the deal, so to speak, as the New Contracts Trends Reportshows, there were 890 new contracts written during that same week, a decline of 1% from the same period the year before.
Don’t sound the alarm yet..
As I’ve said, even with the increase in inventory it is still low and the trend reports are just for one week so we need to give it more time and watch the trend in the coming couple of weeks before we can determine that there is possibly a significant trend indicating a change in the market. Stay tuned…
Mortgage interest rates dropped peaked in the spring of this year with the rate on a 30-year fixed rate conventional loan hitting 3.353% in mid-March then staying near that range until mid-April when rates started to ease. In mid-June the rate had crept back up to 3.229% but last week dipped below 3% to 2.982%. As of yesterday, the rate has increased slightly but is still just a tad over 3% (3.019%).
Mortgage Interest Rates – 30 Years Conforming Conventional Loan -Past 12 Month Period
(click on chart for live, interactive chart and other loan types)
In the past couple of days there have been many news reports about new home sales in the U.S. declining and reaching a 14-month low based upon the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau. As the table below shows, the reports are accurate as new home sales for June 2021 in the U.S. were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 676,000 homes, the lowest annual rate in 14-months and a rate that is 6.6% lower than May and 19.4% lower than June 2020.. However, the good news for us here in the Midwest Region is, the same table shows that for our region new home sales in June 2021 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 92,000 homes, an increase of 5.7% from the rate for May 2021 and an increase of 7.0% from June 2020. All of the other regions, as well as the U.S. as a whole, saw a decline in annual rate from the month before as well as the year before.
What an interesting real estate market we’ve experienced in St Louis over the past few years! Seller’s fully expect their homes to sell the first weekend after hitting the market, with a feeding frenzy by buyer’s and bidding wars that drive the price above the list price. Buyer’s come to realize if they are going to be successful in buying a home they have to think fast, take chances and move quick! Heck, with a market like this, it’s no wonder a lot of folks, particularly sellers, don’t necessarily see a need for a real estate agent.
However, the reality is that sellers and buyers need a great agent now more than ever. Yes, I emphasized great as, like in any profession, there are varying levels of knowledge, experience and professionalism among real estate agents. In addition to having a great agent that agent needs timely, accurate market data, along with an understanding of the market resulting in complete market knowledge. Unfortunately, this combination is not easy to find.
As the chart below illustrates (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®), homes in St Charles County sold for a median price equal to nearly 105% of the current list price of the listing in June, which is the highest percentage of list price for the counties that make up the St Louis 5-county core market. For the 9 months up to and including January of this year, 4 of the 5 counties all had a median sold price equal to 100% of the current list price with Franklin County averaging less. In January St Charles county took off followed by Jefferson County, St Louis County and St Louis City all of which saw the median sold price exceed 100% of the current list price. Franklin County made it up to 100% but has stayed there.
St Louis Area Counties $ Of Current List Price Homes Sold For During Past 13 Months
There were 5,201 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended May 31, 2021 an increase of 17.19% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,438 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). For the forth month in a row, All seven counties covered in the report saw an increase in building permits from the same period a year ago and with double-digit increases in all counties except Franklin.
In April of this year the Median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market was $250,000, 4.4% higher than the median list price of $239,450 for those homes sold. This is the highest gap we’ve seen between the median sold price and listing price since we’ve been tracking it. Last month the gap narrowed though with the median price of homes sold in May coming in at $258,000, 3.2% higher than the median list price of $249,900. Worth noting as well is between April and May, the median list price of homes in the St Louis 5-County core market increased 4.4% and the median sold price increased 3.2%.
St Louis 5-County Core Sold Price to List Price Chart
The Director for the Center for Disease Control (CDC), Dr. Rochelle Walensky, signed an extension to the eviction moratorium extending its expiration from June 30, 2021 to July 31, 2021. The CDC has indicated that “this is intended to be the final extension of the moratorium.”
For the 12-month period ended May 31, 2021, there were 30,225 homes sold within the St Louis 5-County core market, an increase in home sales of 13.91% from the prior 12-month period, according to the STL Market Report below, available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®. During the same period, St Louis home prices increased 11.5% from a median of $213,000 to $237,500. As the report also shows, the current supply of listings for sale is low at 0.86 months.
STL Market Report For the St Louis 5-County Core Market
Last week I shared data showing that nearly two-thirds of the homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market (St Louis city and the counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin) during the past 12 months sold for the asking price or above. Today, I wanted to focus on just the luxury home market to see how that compared with the overall market. I included homes that sold for $750,000 or higher in this analysis.
As the infographic below shows (exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®) there were 1,120 luxury homes sold (about 3% of all homes sold) during the past 12-months in the St Louis 5-County core market with 38% of them selling at the list price or above. Drilling down further, we see that 22% of the St Louis Luxury homes sold for greater than the list price.
There were 5,138 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended April 30, 2021 an increase of 13.67% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,520 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). For the forth month in a row, All seven counties covered in the report saw an increase in building permits from the same period a year ago and with double-digit increases for six of the seven counties. Lincoln County, for the fourth consecutive month, saw the largest increase at 53.8% followed by St Louis City at 29.32%.
It’s no secret how competitive the St Louis housing market is currently. In effort to get their offer accepted, homebuyers are waiving financing contingencies, building inspections and doing everything they can to convince the seller to take their offer. However, in addition to those aforementioned things, while it’s not necessarily the most important thing, price is pretty close to the top of the list.
As a result of everything mentioned above, almost two-thirds of the homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market (St Louis city and the counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin) during the past 12 months sold for the asking price or above. As the infographic below shows (exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®) there were 34,225 homes sold during the past 12-months in the St Louis 5-County core market with 63% of them selling at the list price or above. One thing to remember about home prices though, and something you won’t hear from too many people reporting prices, is that not all sold prices are the “real” price.
While most of the current real estate market is doing quite well, and has for some time, the St Charles County real estate market has been on fire lately! Highlights from the the reports and charts below include (which are available exclusivelyfrom MORE, REALTORS):
For the 12-month period ending April 30, 2021 there were 6,620 homes sold in St Charles County, an increase of 13% from the prior 12-month period.
For the most recent period noted above, the median price of homes sold in St Charles County was $271,240, and an increase of nearly 9% from the prior period.
Currently, there is just under a one-half of one month’s supply of homes for sale in St Charles County.
The trend chart below does a good job of illustrating how, after over 3 years with a fairly flat trend, 10 of the 11 prior months have seen an increase in the home sales trend (12-month) for St Charles County.
The STL Real Estate Trends Report below for new contracts and new listings is the absolute best way to spot where the market is headed and with new contracts written on listings increasing 50% in the most recent week from the prior week and new listings declining 6% in the same period, it looks like the inventory of homes for sale in St Charles is headed even lower.
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Every month Fannie Mae surveys consumers about owning and renting a home as well as about other issues related to the housing market and economy and from the results publish their Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI). One of the components of the index is what the sentiment is on whether now is a good time to buy a home or sell a home. In the April 2021 HPSI 49% of consumers felt home prices would go up in the next 12-months and 54% felt interest rates would increase in the next 12-months.
Every month Fannie Mae surveys consumers about owning and renting a home as well as about other issues related to the housing market and economy and from the results publish their Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI). One of the components of the index is what the sentiment is on whether now is a good time to buy a home or sell a home. In the April 2021 HPSI consumers sentiment on now being a good time to buy a home hit an all-time low with just 47% of respondents saying now is a good time to buy a home. As the charts below illustrate, 67% of respondents saiid now was a good time to sell a home which is just one percentage point away from the record high of 68% back in April 2018.
It’s not surpassing that if a near record number of people think now is a good time to sell that the sentiment on the buyer’s side would be the opposite as having a truly balanced market not favoring buyers or sellers is hard. In fact, the last time it was even close to balanced was in the latter part of 2012 and the early part of 2013 when roughly 45% – 55% of consumers felt it was both a good time to buy as well as sell a home.
In spite of the challenge of a low-inventory housing market, St Louis City and County, St Charles County and Franklin County all saw double-digit increases in the number of homes sold in April while Jefferson County saw a double digit decline. As the charts below illustrate, the median price of homes sold in those counties increased from a year ago in all the counties, two of them in the double digits.
Not all housing data is the same….nor accurate for that matter…
One thing worth noting is that there are housing market reports out there from many different sources, including many credible ones that may or may not be accurate. In most cases this is not due to an error on the part of the person or entity sharing the data but a result of either bad data, inaccurate data or misinterpreted data. For example, when preparing to write this article I noticed two different reports on “St Louis” home prices for homes sold in April. One, which indicated it was for St Louis City and County combined, reported $250,000 and one which reported the “St Louis area” was $266,000. In the case of the latter, my first guess was that they were reporting data for the St Louis MSA but when I checked that the actual sold price in April was only $223,750 so I have no idea where the data came from. For the former, the $250,000 median price is not only higher than the median price for St Louis City and County, it’s higher than the median price for the whole MSA and while the source is indicated, I’m not sure how this number was arrived at.
So what does it matter?
In the crazy market we are in where buyers are getting in bidding wars to get a home, I think it’s more important than ever to have good, relevant and accurate data available to your agent so your agent can help you make an informed decision. You ultimately may decide to pay above what you think the current value of the home is but it would help to know what the real value is. If you look at my chart below for St Louis City and County you’ll see the median price of homes sold in April was $230,000 which is quite different than the $250,000 price and $266,000 I saw reported elsewhere. Would being $20,000 – $36,000 off on the value matter to you? I think it might.
So how do I know I’m right?
Well, for starters I’m a data junky and for the past dozen or so years I’ve probably spent, on average about a dozen hours a week or more studying market data for St Louis. In addition, for the past 6 or 7 years we have worked to develop our own proprietary software to compile and report housing data and are constantly checking and double checking the output. Finally, we have a very credible source for data, the REALTOR® MLS and we constantly update and check the data. Put all of this together and while there’s no way to say it’s 100% correct, but I’m confident it’s about as close as you can get.
While lately there’s been a lot of talk about the skyrocketing lumber prices and the impact on the cost of a new home but that’s not the only thing impacting the price of new homes. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) recently released the results of its 2021 Land Developer Survey on Regulatory Costswhich, as the detailed table below shows, the average total cost of regulatory items in the price of a new home is $93,870. The NAHB in the same report indicates the average price of a new home is currently $397,300 so the cost of complying with regulatory issues makes up nearly 25%of the price (23.8%) of a new home.
The second table below breaks out the regulatory costs between ground development and home construction and, as it illustrates, the costs are fairly evenly divided between the two with ground development experiencing 10.5% cost for regulatory compliances and construction of the home itself 13.3%.
There were 5,045 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended March 31, 2021 an increase of over 10.5% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,564 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). For the forth month in a row, All seven counties covered in the report saw an increase in building permits from the same period a year ago and with double-digit increases for four counties. Lincoln County, for the third consecutive month, saw the largest increase at 60.78% followed by Warren County at 17.61%.
UPDATE: After the decision by to overturn the eviction moratorium was decided upon by Judge Dabney L. Friedrich on May 5th, at 6:54pm that evening the U.S. Government filed a notice of appeal as well as a motion for an emergency stay to not have the eviction moratorium lifted until after the appeal. Judge Dabney L. Friedrich through a Minute Order, granted the stay, thereby leaving the eviction moratorium in place for now but noting that “This Minute Order should not be construed in any way as a ruling on the merits of the defendants’ motion.” The judge allowed the plaintiff’s until May 12th to file opposition to the motion to stay and then the U.S. government 4 days to respond to the plaintiff’s opposition.
So, for now, the eviction moratorium stands…
05/05/2021
MINUTE ORDER. Before the Court is the defendants’ 57 Emergency Motion for a Stay Pending Appeal of this Court’s 53 May 5, 2021 Order vacating the national eviction moratorium at 86 Fed. Reg. 16,731. In this emergency motion, the defendants request an immediate administrative stay to give this Court time to consider and rule upon its motion to stay this case pending appeal. Alternatively, the defendants request that the Court stay its 53 May 5, 2021 Order as to all parties except for the plaintiffs. Defs.’ Emergency Mot. for a Stay Pending Appeal at 1 n.1, 8-9, Dkt. 57. Although the plaintiffs have not yet filed an opposition to the defendants’ motion, which was filed at 6:54 p.m. this evening, the defendants represent that the plaintiffs oppose the motion. Id. at 1 n.1. In order to give the Court time to consider the merits of the defendants’ 57 Emergency Motion for a Stay Pending Appeal, and the plaintiffs time to file an opposition to the motion, the Court will grant the defendants’ request for a temporary administrative stay.
This Minute Order should not be construed in any way as a ruling on the merits of the defendants’ motion. The Court notes, however, that, as the Court has explained, see Mem. Op. at 19, Dkt. 54, the law in this Circuit is clear: where a court concludes that an agency has exceeded its statutory authority, as this Court has done here, see Mem. Op. at 17, vacatur of the rule is the proper remedy in this Circuit. See Nat’l Mining Ass’n v. U.S. Army Corps of Eng’rs, 145 F.3d 1399, 1409 (D.C. Cir. 1998). Based on this clear authority, courts in this Circuit do not restrict vacatur only to those plaintiffs before the Court. See, e.g., O.A. v. Trump, 404 F. Supp. 3d 109, 152-53 (D.D.C. 2019). Indeed, the government has been unable to point to a single case in which a court in this Circuit has done so. See Mot. Hr’g Rough Tr. at 31.
Accordingly, it is ORDERED that the Court’s 53 May 5, 2021 Order is administratively STAYED. It is further ORDERED that the plaintiffs shall file any opposition to the defendants’ motion on or before May 12, 2021, and the defendants shall file any reply within four days of the date the plaintiffs’ opposition is filed. So Ordered by Judge Dabney L. Friedrich on May 5, 2021. (lcdlf1)
(Entered: 05/05/2021)
Today, United States District Judge Dabney L. Friedrich issued an oder setting aside the CDC Ordered nationwide eviction moratorium that, prior to this order, was in effect until June 30, 2021. For the entire opinion from the court, click “>HEREand then scroll down to the first big red button titled “Court Order Lifting Rental Eviction Moratorium May 5, 2021”.
Lately, I’ve noticed several articles questioning whether the kind of crazy real estate market we’ve in for a while now is reminiscent of the early 2000’s which lead to a housing bubble that eventually burst in 2008. Granted, even in St Louis where we tend to not see the market extremes one way or the other like the coasts do, one could get the idea that maybe we’re headed that way with buyer’s fighting over new listings and bidding wars that have homes often selling for over the list price. However, in my humble opinion, this market is very different than the 2000 – 2007 market and we are not headed to a crash at this point.
Before I go further…my disclaimer…
I’m not an economist and I didn’t even stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, I’m just a long-time real estate industry data junkie who has ridden the real estate roller coaster for 40+ years and have some thoughts on the current state of the market. While my comments may apply outside of our local market, my focus and commentary are on the St Louis housing market.
The St Louis MSA rental vacancy rate during the 1st quarter of 2021 was 6.4%, the highest rate since the 4th quarter of 2019, according to data recently released by the U.S. Census Bureau. During the 1st quarter of last year, the St Louis rental vacancy rate was 5.5%..
St Louis Rental Vacancy Rates – 2005 – Present
(click on table for complete data from 2005 – present)
The homeownership rate in the St Louis MSA for the first quarter of 2021 was 73.1%, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. This is a big jump upward from the 4th quarter of last year when St Louis ranked 23rd on the list.
There were a total of 7,863 residential building permits issued in the St Louis MSA during 2020 with 5,719 of this being for single-family homes both of which represent the highest number of building permits issued since 2007. As the table below shows, there were 110 building permits issued for 2-unit buildings, 57 permits for 3-4 unit buildings and nearly 2,000 (1,977) issued for buildings with 5 units or more last year.
We’re not even close to the early 2000’s though…
As the chart below does such a great job of illustrating, even though the number of residential building permits in St Louis has increased significantly from hitting bottom in 2011 as a result of the 2008 housing bubble burst, we are still not close to the levels before the crash. For the 13 years proceeding the housing bubble burst in 2008, the median number of residential building permits issued in the St Louis MSA in a year was 10,381 permits, 81% more than our “record” year last year.
The “New” Trend?
On the bottom chart, there is a red line which represents the linear trend line for single-family building permits, which on a positive note, does show the number of permits issued in the last 4 years or so bucking the downward trend.
Is it any wonder the inventory of homes for sale is so low?
The St Louis luxury home market (homes priced at $700,000 or above) after remaining relatively flat for about a year has been steadily trending upward for now 10-months in a row. Even though April is not over, there have already been more sales of Luxury homes closed than for the month before, so April will make the 10th month of increased sales activity.
As the STL Market Chart below shows (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®), sales of luxury homes in St Louis City and County and St Charles County, have increased from 694 sales for the 12-month period ended April 2018 to 1,130 for the 12-month period ending the 30th of this month (so it’s going to rise further even), an increase of 63% in the past 3 years. For the sake of this analysis, a “luxury” home was considered to be a home selling for $700,000 or above, which puts it in the upper 5% or so of the market.
St Louis Luxury Home Sales Trend (12-month prior periods) For the Past 3 Years
Mortgage interest rates dropped below 3% this past week with an average interest rate of 2.97% on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. As the chart below shows, mortgage interest rates have not been below 3% since February 25, 2021 when they also averaged 2.97%. Rates are still up from the record low rate of 2.65% in January, but as you can see on the chart, are still at a rate that is historically low!
Now is the time to buy or perhaps refinance your existing mortgage.
Anyone that has been thinking of buying a home should, if able, shift into high geat and find one now to take advantage of the low rates and the increased buying power that comes with it. The first step would be to get yourself pre-approved and, for that, I would recommend Michael McCarthy with Flat Branch Home Loans…he’s great and our firm does a lot of business with him. You can find his info at STLBestLender.com. If you a homeowner with a mortgage and no plans to move, I would also suggest you get in touch with Mike to see how much money you can save by refinancing your existing mortgage at a lower rate.
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