St. Louis Foreclosure Filings Plummet: Find Out What’s Happening in Your County

The St. Louis MSA has seen a notable decrease in foreclosure filings in the fourth quarter of 2023, with the numbers falling to 851, a 19% reduction from the previous quarter. When we look at the year-over-year data, the decline is even more significant, showing a 46% drop from the fourth quarter of 2022. This downward trend suggests a potentially stabilizing real estate market in the St Louis metro area, with fewer properties entering foreclosure.

Within this broader picture, certain counties have experienced remarkable changes. Monroe County, for instance, recorded a sharp increase of 60% in foreclosure filings from Q3, while Madison County saw filings decrease by 7% in the same period. Saint Clair County, which had faced a high volume of foreclosures, saw a 13% decrease from Q3 2023 and a substantial 79% drop from Q4 2022, reflecting a positive shift for homeowners in the area. This data, encapsulated in the accompanying table, offers a snapshot of the current market conditions and emerging trends in the St. Louis housing landscape.


  

 

St Louis Metro Area Foreclosure Filings – 4th Quarter 2023

St Louis Metro Area Foreclosure Filings - 4th Quater 2023

© 2024 St Louis Real Estate News – Data Source:  Attom Data Research

Real Estate’s Game Changer: Decoding the Latest Twists in the Sitzer Saga

Since the suit was first filed in 2019, I’ve been following the the Sitzer v. National Association of REALTORS® case closely and sharing my thoughts on the potential impact it could have on the real estate industry, as well as on home buyers and sellers. This task has been far from dull, as the litigation has been filled with action, especially since the Missouri jury’s ruling in favor of the plaintiffs in October. The past week has seen an increase in legal activity from the defendants, making the situation even more intense. Below is a breakdown of the latest events and their implications, from my perspective (bear in mind, I’m not an attorney, just a real estate broker):


Key Motions Filed:

  • National Association of Realtors Seeks a New Trial: This motion contests the fairness of the original trial, highlighting potential procedural and evidentiary errors that might have skewed the jury’s decision.
  • Calls for Judgment as a Matter of Law: Various defendants, including Keller Williams and BHH Affiliates, have challenged the verdict based on the argument that it contradicts the evidence presented. They point to possible legal oversights, such as flawed jury instructions.
  • Questioning the Class Action Status: A notable move by BHH Affiliates and HomeServices of America, this motion disputes the class action’s suitability, arguing that individual differences overshadow commonalities crucial in such lawsuits.

Analyzing the Legal Landscape:

  • The Frequency of Post-Verdict Motions: In complex cases like this, it’s quite typical for defendants to pursue motions for a new trial or a judgment reversal. These legal steps, while common, underscore the high stakes involved, especially in a sector as impactful as real estate.
  • Prospects of These Motions: Historically, the success of such motions varies. They can occasionally lead to new trials or judgment alterations. However, overturning a jury’s decision is often a challenging hill to climb, given the U.S. legal system’s respect for jury findings. These motions are more likely precursors to an appeal.
  • Real Estate Industry at a Crossroads: The decisions on these motions are critical. Their outcomes could prompt significant changes in how real estate transactions are conducted, especially regarding agent commissions and competitive practices.

What Does This Mean for Home Buyers and Sellers?

Now, you might be wondering, “All this legal talk is great, but how does it affect me as a home buyer or seller?” Well, I have some thoughts on that as well:

  • Changes in Commission Structures: The heart of the Sitzer case is about how real estate commissions are handled. Depending on the outcome, we might see a shift in how agents are paid. This could mean more flexibility or different options when it comes to commission rates.
  • Increased Transparency: The case also touches on transparency in real estate transactions. We could be looking at a future where there’s more clarity on how agents operate, which means you, as a buyer or seller, would have a clearer picture of what you’re getting into.
  • Potential for More Competitive Pricing: If the verdict leads to changes in how commissions are structured, this could open the door for more competitive pricing in the real estate market. It could mean better deals for buyers and more options for sellers.

In short, this trial isn’t just about big real estate companies; it’s about potentially changing the playing field for everyone involved in buying or selling a home. It’s about making sure that the process is fair and transparent for you, the consumer. So, stay tuned – the decisions made in this courtroom could be game-changers for how we buy and sell homes.

Compilation of Motions Filed In The Past Week in Sitzer v NAR

(click below to access the document containing all the motions filed)

Compilation of Motions Filed In The Past Week in Sitzer v NAR


 

St. Louis Housing Market Sees Shift: Key Insights from 2023 Year-End Data

The “STL Market Report,” below exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS, provides a comprehensive look at the St. Louis residential real estate market as 2023 ended. This report outlines a mixed array of trends, highlighting a notable decline in the number of homes sold contrasted with a modest increase in median sold prices, offering in-depth knowledge for prospective buyers and sellers to navigate the market.

Decrease in Home Sales Volume
The St. Louis metro area witnessed a noticeable reduction in the volume of home sales year-over-year. A total of 31,704 homes were sold in the year ending December 2023, which marks a 13.13% decrease compared to the previous year’s figure of 36,498. This drop could signal a shift toward a buyer’s market, as fewer transactions typically indicate less competition among buyers.

Modest Rise in Home Prices
Despite the decrease in sales volume, St. Louis saw a modest increase in home prices. The median sold price for homes rose by 2.04% from $245,000 in December 2022 to $250,000 in December 2023. This growth, although not steep, suggests that home values in the region continue to appreciate, offering a silver lining for homeowners looking to sell.

Price Per Square Foot Analysis
The median price per square foot (PPSF) for sold homes remained relatively stable at $173.08 in December 2023, a slight decrease compared to the median PPSF for current listings at $171.87. However, a significant point to note is the 11.02% drop in PPSF for current listings compared to the sold listings from the past 12 months, indicating a possible adjustment in market expectations.

Inventory and Market Supply Dynamics
St. Louis’s home inventory levels also present an interesting narrative. With 2,956 listings currently up for sale and 2,348 homes sold last month, the market is experiencing a supply of approximately 1.26 months. This figure represents a brisk market that favors sellers, as a supply under 6 months typically does. However, it is important to monitor whether this inventory will rise or fall in response to changing market conditions.

Days on Market: A Consistent Pace
Homes in St. Louis are selling at a consistent pace, with the median days on market holding steady at 37 days. This indicates a stable demand for homes, with properties moving from listing to sale in just over a month on average.

What This Means for You
For sellers in the St. Louis area, the market still offers a favorable environment with steady prices and a relatively quick selling period. Buyers, on the other hand, might benefit from reduced competition, though they should be mindful of potential value appreciations.

 

STL Market Report – St Louis MSA

(click on report below for complete report)

STL Market Report - St Louis MSA

 

 

St. Louis 2024 Housing Forecast: What to Expect in Home Sales and Prices

As 2024 approaches, I conducted my customary in-depth analysis of historical St. Louis real estate market data to get my projection for St. Louis home sales and prices. Home sales in the five-county St. Louis core market appear to be gradually declining, based on statistics and trends from the previous ten years, as seen in the chart below

2024 St Louis Home Sales…

The data for the 12-month period ending December 31, 2023, will be available in a few days. I anticipate that home sales will be roughly 22,600 for the year, but there will be a slight decline by the end of 2024, bringing St Louis home sales down to about 22,400. This isn’t a huge drop (0.8%), but it is a noticeable change that could give buyers in the market a bit more leeway.

2024 St Louis Home Prices…

While home prices have been on the rise, the median price per square foot is increasing at a slower rate than in previous years. I anticipate St. Louis home prices will increase by only about 1% from their 2023 peak, reaching a peak in the summer of 2024 at approximately $196/foot, and then leveling off slightly, falling to around $184/foot by December 2024. It’s important to bear in mind that this type of fluctuation is common, whether you’re buying or selling. Prices are not falling dramatically, but they’re also not rising sharply. This follows a more consistent, dependable pattern. These are the trends to watch out for in the St. Louis market in 2024 if you’re in the game.

A little CYA…

It’s worth noting that the aforementioned estimates are based on the current economic conditions and patterns. Interest rates, inflation, and unemployment are just a few of the many factors that influence the economy, and even experts (who know a lot more than me) can’t always agree on where these trends are headed. As a result, any major shifts in these areas might significantly impact the direction of the St. Louis housing market in the upcoming year.


 

St Louis 5-County Core 12-Month Home Sale and Price Trend – Past 10 Years

(click on chart for live, interactive chart)St Louis 5-County Core 12-Month Home Sale and Price Trend - Past 10 Years

Big Brokers Hit with New Antitrust Lawsuit Over Buyer Broker Commissions

The residential real estate industry is facing yet another antitrust lawsuit targeting the long-standing practice of home sellers paying the commissions of buyer’s agents. Filed on December 27th in Missouri federal court, Daniel Umpa v. National Association of Realtors alleges the NAR and large national brokerages like Compass and Keller Williams conspired to maintain inflated buyer agent commissions through anticompetitive practices.

This latest suit comes on the heels of the Department of Justice’s ongoing investigation into potentially anti-competitive industry practices related to real estate commissions and access to MLS listings. It also follows similar buyer broker commission lawsuits brought in the past two years by home sellers against NAR and large brokerages. The new complaint alleges the defendants worked together to enact NAR policies like the ‘Buyer Broker Commission Rule’ which required listing brokers to make blanket, non-negotiable commission offers to buyer brokers. This rule allegedly discourages lower commissions and impedes market competition to the detriment of home sellers.

If successful, the plaintiff seeks injunctive relief under antitrust laws forcing changes to current industry practices, as well as damages related to overcharges paid by class members stretching back to late 2019. With the DOJ investigation ongoing and buyer broker commissions under continued legal scrutiny, pressure mounts for transparency and reform in how real estate agents are compensated. Though the industry justifies maintaining the status quo to ensure access to listing data critical for buyers and sellers, critics argue new technologies make this argument increasingly dubious. One thing is clear – more antitrust litigation is brewing which could profoundly reshape residential brokerage.


Umpa vs The National Association of REALTORS, et al

(click on image to view entire complaint)

Umpa vs The National Association of REALTORS, et al

NAR’s Tumultuous Year: Insights and Implications for St. Louis Real Estate

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is facing unprecedented difficulties, including antitrust lawsuits and charges of sexual harassment, according to a lengthy report published in the New York Times today by Debra Kamin. The analysis by Kamin offers a perceptive look at the internal turmoil and external challenges that NAR is facing.

The customary practice of listing agents paying buyers’ agents fees is called into question by a landmark lawsuit in Missouri that resulted in a $1.8 billion verdict against NAR. The report quotes Compass’s Jason Haber as saying, “This is an extinction-level event,” highlighting the seriousness of these occurrences. The situation is made more complicated by the exit of important NAR executives, like as President Kenny Parcell, amid allegations of sexual harassment. These developments could have a big effect on the real estate market, even in our St. Louis market.

Readers of St. Louis Real Estate News are familiar with my analyses on these issues over the past years. At MORE REALTORS®, we have been proactively addressing these industry changes. Our agents are well-informed and prepared for the evolving landscape, ensuring we stay ahead in the game.

Kamin’s article serves as a reminder of the ongoing transformation in the real estate sector. As we navigate these changes, our commitment at MORE REALTORS® remains steadfast: to uphold the highest ethical standards and adapt swiftly to serve our clients best in the St. Louis area.


Is the REALTORS’ Clear Cooperation Policy Aiding Market Fairness or Fueling Legal Battles?

Recently, the real estate industry has found itself under increasing legal scrutiny, with multiple lawsuits challenging established norms. A critical point of debate is the REALTORS’ Clear Cooperation Policy. This policy mandates that within one business day of marketing a property to the public, agents must list the property on the MLS. While designed to promote transparency and cooperation among real estate professionals, it’s worth asking: Is this policy partly to blame for the industry’s legal challenges, or does it genuinely foster a fair and open market in compliance with the Sherman Antitrust Act?

The Sherman Antitrust Act, a cornerstone of U.S. antitrust law, prohibits any contract or combination that restrains trade. The Clear Cooperation Policy, by restricting agents’ freedom to market properties outside the MLS, potentially limits competition. Centralizing all listings within the MLS could be seen as creating a monopolistic environment, contrary to the principles of free trade the Sherman Act seeks to protect. On the other hand, proponents argue that the policy ensures equal access to property listings for all agents, thereby benefiting consumers by offering a comprehensive market view.

As legal battles unfold and regulatory bodies like the DOJ and FTC weigh in, the real estate industry awaits clarity. The coming months are crucial, and they will likely reveal whether the Clear Cooperation Policy aligns with the ethos of the Sherman Antitrust Act or contradicts it. As we navigate these complex legal waters, stay tuned to St Louis Real Estate News for the latest developments and insights. We’re committed to keeping you informed about how these critical issues will shape the future of real estate marketing and market fairness. Moreover, you can rely on the professional agents at MORE, REALTORS. They possess not only the knowledge and expertise to navigate through all the rules and regulations but also deliver exceptional results to their clients.


Highlights of the Clear Cooperation Policy

  • Mandatory MLS Listing: Properties must be listed on the MLS within one business day of public marketing.
  • Scope of Public Marketing: Includes flyers, yard signs, digital marketing, and more.
  • Office Exclusive Listings: Allows keeping listings off the MLS if not publicly marketed.
  • Filing Requirement: All exclusive listings must be filed with the MLS if publicly marketed.
  • Enforcement: Imposes fines and reporting mechanism for non-compliance.

Key Components of Sherman Antitrust Act Relevant to the Policy

  • Restriction on Trade: Prohibits practices that restrain trade or commerce.
  • Legal Consequences: Includes fines and imprisonment for violations.
  • Focus on Competition: Aims to maintain free and competitive markets.
  • Application to Real Estate: Includes practices affecting inter-state commerce.
  • Interpretation in Courts: Requires judicial determination on trade restraints.

St. Louis Real Estate Market Ending Year on High Note: Surge in Home Sales and Listings

In a remarkable end-of-year surge, the St. Louis real estate market has shown significant growth in both home sales and new listings, according to the latest reports below, available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®.  The week of December 17-23, 2023, marked a notable increase in accepted contracts for home sales, jumping 26% compared to the same week in 2022. The rise was led by St. Louis County, which experienced an impressive 60% increase, indicating a robust demand in this area.

Simultaneously, new listings in the St. Louis area rose by 10%, with St. Charles County, in particular, witnessing a 31% jump in new properties hitting the market followed by Jefferson County with a 20% increase in new listings over the prior year.

This increase in listings, coupled with the growth in sales, suggests a continued good real estate environment as we head into the new year.


STL Real Estate Trends Report

New Accepted Contracts In the St Louis 5-County Core Market

(click on table for current, live data)

STL Real Estate Trends Report

STL Real Estate Trends Report

New Listings In the St Louis 5-County Core Market

(click on table for current, live data)

STL Real Estate Trends Report

NAR Aims to Dismiss Moehrl Suit: Summary Judgment Motion Marks Latest Turn in Landmark Real Estate Case

Earlier this week, on Tuesday, December 19, 2023, the Moehrl v. National Association of Realtors (NAR) lawsuit saw a flurry of activity.  Motions for summary judgment were filed by the remaining defendants, including the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), Keller Williams Realty, Inc., BHH Affiliates, LLC, The Long & Foster Companies, Inc., HSF Affiliates, LLC and HomeServices of America, Inc. Notably, two other defendants, Realogy (now known as Anywhere) and Re/Max, had previously reached a settlement agreement with the plaintiff, which is currently pending court approval.

With the exception of Keller Williams Realty, Inc., all of the real estate brokerage defendants jointly filed a single motion for summary judgment. In contrast, Keller Williams Realty, Inc. submitted their own separate motion, which, while distinct, shares similarities with the collective motion of the other brokerages in its arguments and legal stance.

  • The National Association of Realtors defended its model rules and policies, asserting they’re not conspiratorial and are instead standard practice in the industry, aiming to facilitate transparency and efficiency in real estate transactions.
  • Keller Williams Realty, Inc. focused on their lack of involvement in the alleged conspiracy, emphasizing no direct role in NAR’s Cooperative Compensation Rule.
  • BHH Affiliates, LLC, The Long & Foster Companies, Inc., HSF Affiliates, LLC, HomeServices of America, Inc. similarly argued for their non-participation in any actions related to the NAR rule they’re accused of conspiring to adopt.

As I’ve mentioned in many previous articles, this legal battle, along with other similar cases across the country, is poised to have significant implications for the real estate industry and profession. At the heart of these challenges lies a foundational method of conducting residential real estate transactions, including the compensation of agents (particularly buyer’s agents). Regardless of the outcomes of these lawsuits, the industry is set to undergo significant changes. This is partly due to the heightened attention these cases have attracted, which will likely lead to a better understanding of the transaction process by home buyers and sellers, as well as greater transparency, especially in terms of the roles and compensation of real estate agents involved. Personally, I believe these developments are positive. They will benefit dedicated, professional agents and their clients, and may disadvantage those who are underperforming or, frankly, should not be in the business in the first place.

Find complete information on this lawsuit as well as all the other related lawsuits as well as a wealth of information on the St Louis real estate market at the MORE Resource Center by clicking this link or the button below.


Report Shows Average Wage Earner can Afford to Buy a Home In over half of the St Louis Areas Largest Counties

A report just released by ATTOM Data Research details housing affordability for the largest counties in the St. Louis metro area for the 3rd quarter of 2023. Affordability, measured by the percentage of wages needed to buy a home, shows considerable variation across counties in Illinois and Missouri. This metric is influenced by factors such as median sales prices and average wages.

For instance, in the County of St. Louis City (yes, it’s odd, but it’s a county), it only takes 17.3% of the annualized wages of an average earner to buy a median-priced home. In contrast, in St. Charles County, it takes 38.3% of annualized wages to afford a home. As the table below illustrates, in 4 of the 7 counties covered in the report, an average wage earner could afford to buy a home. Interestingly, home price appreciation is outpacing annualized wages in those counties, indicating that this affordability may soon change.


 

Percentage Of Income Needed To Buy A Home In St Louis

Percentage Of Income Needed To Buy A Home In St Louis

St Louis Housing Affordability Index By County St Louis Housing Affordability Index By County

Missouri Supreme Court Overturns Bill Criminalizing Sleeping on State Lands

Yesterday, the Missouri Supreme Court issued a ruling striking down Missouri House Bill 1606 (2022), particularly section 67.2300, which sought to criminalize unauthorized sleeping and camping on state-owned lands, making it a class C misdemeanor. The Court found this section to be in violation of the Missouri Constitution’s single subject requirement.

In the decision, the Supreme Court emphasized that the inclusion of section 67.2300 introduced an impermissible additional subject—homelessness—into the bill, which was originally focused on political subdivisions. Justice Paul C. Wilson, writing for the Court, noted that the provisions of section 67.2300 “do not fairly relate to or have a natural connection with” the subject of political subdivisions, and instead relate to the different subject of homelessness. This divergence from the bill’s original purpose led to the conclusion that TAFP HB 1606, in its entirety, violated the single subject requirement of article III section 23 of the Missouri Constitution.


Missouri Supreme Court Opinion Issued December 19, 2023

(click on image below to access full opinion)

Missouri Supreme Court Opinion Issued December 19, 2023

 

NAR President Traci Casper Addresses Housing Market Challenges and Commission Lawsuits in CNBC Interview

Traci Casper, NAR President

In a recent interview with CNBC, Traci Casper, the President of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), shared her views on the current state of the housing market and the implications of recent commission lawsuits. Her remarks provide an insight into the challenges and changes shaping the real estate industry, particularly relevant for the St. Louis market.

Casper highlighted the impact of fluctuating mortgage rates on the housing market, mentioning, “We do have still such a pent-up buyer pool that’s just been waiting on the sidelines… we are starting to feel them come back in.” This observation reflects the interconnectedness of mortgage rates and buyer activity, a significant factor in real estate market dynamics.

Regarding the commission lawsuits, Casper spoke about the potential effects on buyers and sellers. She explained, “Our buyers are already struggling to come up with a down payment… We don’t want to see is the marginalization of those buyers.” This statement is in line with the NAR’s consistent message suggesting that lower-income buyers might be negatively impacted if sellers stop paying buyer agent commissions. I counter Casper’s position, highlighting the disagreement within the industry. Many argue that buyers are indirectly paying the commission since it is generally factored into the home’s selling price. If the payment structure shifts to where buyers directly pay the commission, this could lead to a decrease in the seller’s price, as they would no longer bear this cost. This change might not increase the overall cost to the buyer, but it could affect sellers’ pricing strategies. Additionally, I believe that lenders will adapt to these changes. Institutions like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, and VA are likely to revise their policies to allow commissions paid by buyers to be included in closing costs, counted as part of the down payment, or financed.


Recent Drop in Mortgage Rates: A Turning Point for the St. Louis Real Estate Market?

As we observed yesterday, there’s been a significant shift in the mortgage landscape. The interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage fell to 6.62%, the lowest since May 12, 2023, when it stood at 6.55%. This decrease might signal a turning point in the housing market, especially considering the erratic rate movements we’ve seen over the past several months.

More encouraging news comes from the FHA sector, where the 30-year fixed-rate dropped to 6.13%, marking its lowest since May 11, 2023, when it was 6.12%. These recent figures hint at a trend that could reignite buyer interest and energize market activity, a positive shift from the higher rates experienced recently.

This change in mortgage rates is particularly significant!  For prospective buyers, this dip in rates opens a more favorable door, potentially making homeownership more attainable than in the recent past. Sellers have reasons to be optimistic too, as lower rates could lead to increased market interest and activity.

Below is a chart illustrating the history of mortgage interest rates. This visual representation provides a clearer perspective on the recent changes and what they mean for our market.


Mortgage Interest Rates (interactive chart)

(click on chart for live, interactive chart)

Mortgage Interest Rates (interactive chart)

 

 

Analyzing Jerome Powell’s Latest Press Conference: Implications for Mortgage Rates and the St. Louis Real Estate Market

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference yesterday, along with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, provide crucial insights into the Fed’s economic outlook and monetary policy. These insights are pivotal for understanding the trajectory of mortgage rates and the St. Louis real estate market.

Powell’s Press Conference Highlights

  • Economic Activity and Rate Adjustments: Powell noted, “We have raised our policy interest rate by 5-1/4 percentage points… Our actions have moved our policy rate well into restrictive territory.”
  • Housing Sector Observations: He remarked, “After picking up somewhat over the summer, activity in the housing sector has flattened out… largely reflecting higher mortgage rates.”

Key Takeaways from the FOMC Statement

  • Economic and Inflation Outlook: The FOMC stated, “Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has slowed… Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.”
  • Banking System Resilience: The statement highlighted, “The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter financial and credit conditions… are likely to weigh on economic activity.”

Anticipated Interest Rate Movements

  • Future Rate Decisions: The FOMC announced, “The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.”
  • Monetary Policy Considerations: “In determining the extent of any additional policy firming… the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy,” indicating a measured approach to future rate changes.

Implications for Mortgage Rates and St. Louis Real Estate

  • Mortgage Rate Trends: Combining Powell’s remarks with the FOMC statement suggests a period of careful assessment in rate adjustments. This could lead to stabilization or moderate fluctuation in mortgage rates.
  • Market Dynamics in St. Louis: Stable or gradually adjusting mortgage rates, alongside ongoing economic and inflation monitoring, could result in a balanced real estate market. Buyers and sellers in St. Louis may experience a period of relative predictability and sustained market activity.

Conclusion
The integrated perspectives from Jerome Powell’s press conference and the FOMC statement offer a detailed view of the Federal Reserve’s stance on economic conditions and monetary policy. For the St. Louis real estate market, these developments suggest a period of cautious optimism, with potential stability in mortgage rates and a balanced market environment. Real estate stakeholders should consider these insights in their market strategies and decision-making processes.


Understanding Missouri’s Place in National Migration Trends

A recent national migration study by Atlas Van Lines sheds light on the movement patterns across the United States in 2023. For Missouri, and by extension, the St. Louis real estate market, these insights are particularly revealing.

While the study highlights various states experiencing significant inbound or outbound moves, Missouri stands out for its balanced migration pattern. With 51% outbound and 49% inbound moves, this balance has been consistent since 2018, indicating a stable demographic flow in Missouri. This steadiness is an essential factor for real estate professionals in St. Louis, as it suggests a continuous opportunity to cater to both new arrivals and existing residents.

The migration map shown below, illustrating these trends, serves as a visual guide to understanding how Missouri compares with its neighboring states and the nation. Unlike states with heavy inbound or outbound flows, Missouri’s balanced migration pattern presents a unique market scenario. Here, the focus for real estate professionals should be on sustaining and enhancing the region’s appeal to both potential newcomers and current residents.

Missouri’s stable migration pattern implies that while we may not experience dramatic shifts in population, there is a consistent demand for housing and real estate services. This demand is driven by a variety of factors, including economic stability, job opportunities, and quality of life – all critical aspects that influence people’s decisions to move.

The balanced migration in Missouri underscores the importance of focusing on holistic development and marketing strategies that address the needs of a diverse population. For the St. Louis real estate market, it’s about striking a balance between welcoming new residents and serving the needs of those who have long called Missouri home.


2023 Migration Patterns By State – Based on Interstate Household Goods Moves

(from November 16, 2022 through November 16, 2023 – click on map for full report)

2023 Migration Patterns By State - Based on Interstate Household Goods Moves

Evaluating the MLS System: Time for Change?

The real estate industry stands at a pivotal juncture, where longstanding practices are being questioned and re-evaluated. Central to this introspection is the structure of the Multiple Listing Service (MLS), a tool indispensable to our trade. Current legal challenges (such as the Sitzer v NAR lawsuit) and scrutiny from the Department of Justice, particularly concerning policies like clear cooperation and offers of compensation, have brought to the forefront a crucial question: Is the current MLS system, tied as it is to REALTOR® association membership, serving the best interests of our clients and the industry?

The traditional model, which intertwines MLS access with REALTOR® association membership, implies that an agent or broker not aligned with the REALTOR® association is denied access to the MLS. This setup, while historically effective in maintaining a standard of practice and ensuring a level of oversight, now faces criticism for potentially limiting competition and choice in the market.

In the St. Louis area, like in many parts of the country, this structure has been the bedrock of real estate transactions. The MLS, governed and in many times owned by REALTOR® associations (such as is the case in St Louis), has long been a symbol of professional adherence to ethical standards and cooperation. However, the landscape is changing. The industry is evolving with technology and a more informed consumer base, leading to questions about whether this model still serves its intended purpose effectively.

Recent events have brought to light concerns about whether these practices stifle competition and limit consumer choice. The clear cooperation policy, for instance, mandates that all listings be made available to all participating MLS members, tying access closely to association membership. The question arises: does this limit the ability of non-association brokers to compete fairly, subsequently negatively  impacting the consumer?

In an ideal scenario, the MLS should be a tool that enhances the market by ensuring wide visibility of listings, fostering competition, and upholding professional standards. But when access to this crucial tool is contingent on association membership, we must ask if we’re inadvertently creating barriers that go against the very principles of open market competition and consumer choice.

As we delve deeper into this issue, a compelling argument arises for decoupling the MLS from REALTOR® association memberships. Such a change could potentially open the market to a broader range of professionals, encouraging innovation and perhaps even leading to improved services and tools. This decoupling could also align with antitrust laws, addressing legal concerns around competition.

However, this proposed change is not without its challenges. The association-MLS model provides a framework for ethical standards and professional conduct. Decoupling might require the development of new systems to ensure these standards are upheld, which could be complex and resource-intensive.

While currently there are more questions than answers with regard to the issues of race, I think one thing that is certain is that we are likely to see changes to the current system on some level in the coming months.

Majority of St. Louis Counties Experience Drop in New Home Building Permits

There were 3,932 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended October 31, 2023.  This represents a decline of 12.60% from the prior 12-month period, during which 4,499 permits were issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).  Five of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decline in building permits from the previous period with 4 of them seeing double digit declines.  Warren County, on the other hand, saw a slight increase in permit activity for the third month in a row.


  

St Louis New Home Building Permits – October 2023

(click on table below for page with live charts showing additional permit data)St Louis New Home Building Permits - October 2023

 

St Louis Metro Area Real Estate Market Report for November 2023 with accurate data you can trust

The St. Louis Metro Area Real Estate Market Report for November 2023, presented below, provides an overview of the November 2023 St Louis real estate market for each county within the St Louis MSA. This infographic is a unique offering from MORE, REALTORS, which is renowned for its expertise in St. Louis real estate market intelligence. Additionally, our brokerage prides itself on having a team of the most experienced and knowledgeable agents who are deeply committed to serving our clients throughout the St. Louis metro area


St Louis MSA Real Estate Report for November 2023

(click on infographic for complete report including all counties in the St Louis Metro Area)St Louis MSA Real Estate Report for November 2023

Indications Lean Towards DOJ in NAR Legal Battle: Insights from Appellate Court’s Oral Arguments

In yet another pivotal moment for the real estate industry, oral arguments were made yesterday before a three-judge panel at the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in the ongoing battle between the National Association of REALTORS (NAR) and the Department of Justice (DOJ).   The panel, consisting of Circuit Judges Henderson, Walker, and Pan, will now deliberate and make a ruling in the future, a decision that could significantly impact the industry.

The case centers on NAR’s attempt to prevent the DOJ from reopening an investigation into the organization’s commission-sharing policies. The dispute revolves around a 2020 closure agreement, which NAR interprets as barring any future investigations. However, this interpretation faced scrutiny from the judges, particularly Judge Florence Pan, who questioned the permanence of the agreement.

Representing the DOJ, Frederick Liu argued that there was never an intention to indefinitely halt the investigation. He emphasized that during the negotiation process, the DOJ’s antitrust division did not make explicit commitments to end the probe permanently.

This legal showdown is crucial for NAR, an association with more than 1.5 million members. Just last month, NAR, along with other defendants, lost a nearly $1.8 Billion anti-trust lawsuit here in Missouri (Sitzer v NAR) and NAR is currently facing multiple other antitrust lawsuits, including a substantial class-action suit in Illinois, potentially leading to damages of $40 billion.

NAR’s attorney, Christopher Michel, stressed the significance of the closure agreement, arguing that reopening the investigation would render it meaningless. Judge Justin Walker, however, highlighted the inherent risk NAR took in depending on the continuity of the DOJ’s personnel after the election.

The decision by this appellate court will be closely watched, as it could herald significant changes in how real estate transactions are conducted, affecting agents, buyers, and sellers alike. Stay updated with St Louis Real Estate News for the latest on this critical legal development.


Navigating the Changing Landscape of Real Estate: What Buyers and Sellers Need to Know

The real estate industry is potentially on the cusp of a significant shift, one that could redefine the relationship between homebuyers, sellers, and their agents. Several class-action lawsuits, including the Sitzer v. NAR case decided in favor of the plaintiffs last month, have brought considerable attention to how real estate agents representing buyers are compensated. Consequently, many in the industry, myself included, anticipate that changes prompted by either court order or regulation could significantly impact everyone involved in the home buying and selling process

For Buyers: Empowerment through Transparency

Historically, buyer’s agents have been compensated by the seller, creating a perception of “free service” for the buyer. This arrangement often obscured the true cost of services provided by buyer’s agents. The anticipated changes would likely result in a direct payment model, where buyers would pay their agents directly.

What does this mean for you as a buyer? Firstly, it brings transparency. You will have a clearer understanding of what you’re paying for and why. It’s an opportunity to engage more deeply with your agent, understanding their role and the value they bring to your home-buying journey. This shift encourages informed decision-making and could lead to more personalized, high-quality services, as agents strive to demonstrate their worth.

For Sellers: A More Level Playing Field

Sellers, you’re not left out of this equation. The change could level the playing field, making the process fairer. You might find that the costs of selling your home become more predictable, and the overall market dynamics more balanced. However, sellers may experience a bit of ‘sticker shock’ initially. When selling, and basing the value of their home on recent sales, they will need to remember that those prior sale prices included the cost of the buyer’s agent. If now the buyer has to incur this cost, it will effectively add to the buyer’s overall expenses and, consequently, lower the perceived value of the home compared to listings where the seller paid the commission. In other words, sellers, you can’t have your cake and eat it too.

For Agents: A Call to Elevate Services

To the real estate professionals reading this: the proposed changes are a call to action. This is an opportunity to showcase the value and expertise you bring to the table. By focusing on quality service, specialization, and client satisfaction, you can navigate these changes successfully. Remember, a more informed consumer is an opportunity to build deeper, trust-based relationships.

A Forward-Looking Industry

Change is often accompanied by uncertainty, but it also brings growth and progress. As we navigate this evolving landscape, our focus remains on empowering you with information and insights. Whether you’re buying, selling, or simply exploring the market, remember: the value of a skilled real estate professional is undisputed. The right agent is your ally, advocate, and expert.  If you are looking for such an agent, a good place to start is my firm, MORE, REALTORS® as those are the only kind of agents we surround ourselves with (shameless plug).


Missouri Homebuyers, Mark Your Calendars: The Surprising Best Month to Buy Revealed

In the ever-shifting sands of the real estate market, timing can be the key to unlocking exceptional value. A recent comprehensive study by ATTOM Data Services, which analyzed over 47 million home sales, uncovers a surprising twist specific to the Missouri housing market. While the national trend leans towards October for optimal home buying, Missouri charts a different course, offering a unique window of opportunity for prospective buyers.

Discovering Missouri’s Seasonal Advantage

This extensive study paints a vivid picture of real estate trends, providing invaluable insights for both buyers and sellers. For Missouri, the findings point to December as a golden month for home purchasing, differing from the national trend. This divergence presents a strategic opportunity for buyers in the state to potentially secure better deals.

What This Means for St. Louis Home Buyers and Sellers

In the St. Louis real estate market, the latest data presents a compelling narrative for immediate buyer action. With December’s arrival, historically marked as the most advantageous month for home purchases in Missouri, buyers are positioned to capitalize on potentially lower prices. This trend aligns closely with the findings from my recent analysis on interest rates dropping to their lowest in over two months. Together, these factors create a prime environment for buyers in the current market. For sellers, this period warrants a strategic review to align with the unique opportunities that December offers.


Best Month to Buy a Home in Missouri

(click on chart for live, interactive chart)

Best Month to Buy a Home in Missouri

Mortgage Interest Rates Show Promising Decrease, Offering Hope in the Housing Market

As of yesterday, the mortgage landscape has seen a notable shift, with the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage dropping to 7.13%, marking the lowest point since September 1, 2023, when it was 7.08%. This recent decrease offers a glimmer of hope in the housing market, especially considering the turbulent fluctuations witnessed over the past months.

Equally promising is the rate for 30-year fixed-rate FHA loans, which as of yesterday stood at 6.5%, again the lowest since September 1, 2023, when it recorded a rate of 6.45%. These latest figures suggest a trend that could lead to revitalizing buyer interest and market activity, a welcome change from the higher rates experienced in the recent past.

This positive turn in mortgage rates is particularly significant for markets like St. Louis, where the real estate dynamics are closely tied to these financial trends. For buyers, the dip in rates presents a more favorable scenario, potentially making home ownership more accessible than it has been in recent times. Sellers, too, might find reasons to be optimistic, as lower rates could translate to increased market interest and activity.

The chart below illustrates the history of mortgage interest rates, offering a clearer perspective on the recent changes and their implications.


Mortgage Interest Rates (interactive chart)

(click on chart for live, interactive chart)

Mortgage Interest Rates

The real estate market has always been sensitive to interest rate changes, and the current shift could be the beginning of a more encouraging phase. Whether this trend will continue remains to be seen, but for now, it offers a much-needed respite and a reason for cautious optimism in the housing market.

 

 

“Adapt & Thrive”: A Webinar Guiding St. Louis REALTORS® Through Industry Changes

In an era of rapid evolution in the real estate business, it’s crucial for St. Louis REALTORS® to stay ahead of the curve. We are excited to invite you to our upcoming webinar, “Adapt & Thrive: Navigating the New Landscape of Real Estate Post-Sitzer v. NAR,” on Wednesday, November 29th at 10:00 AM.

Why This Webinar Is Critical for Your Career The Sitzer v. NAR verdict marks a significant turning point in our industry. This webinar is crafted to help you understand and leverage these changes for your professional growth. Expect to gain:

  • Comprehensive Insights on the Sitzer v. NAR Verdict: Delve into the verdict’s details and its broader legal implications.
  • Industry Impact Evaluation: Discover how these shifts will influence your business and the real estate market at large.
  • Strategies for Navigating Change: Learn effective ways to adapt and thrive in the evolving real estate environment.
  • Exploration of Innovative Tools: Uncover cutting-edge resources to enhance your business operations and market analysis.

Panel of Experienced Voices As your host, Dennis Norman, with 45 years in the St. Louis real estate scene, I aim to share insights that blend practical experience with strategic foresight. Joining me are my business partners, John Williams and John Donati, both seasoned professionals with deep insights into these recent developments. Our collective experience in leadership within the REALTOR® organization and MLS will provide you with a rich perspective on adapting to industry changes.

Growth and Networking Opportunities This webinar is more than a learning experience—it’s a platform for professional growth and networking with peers dedicated to excellence and adaptation in real estate. It’s an avenue for you to connect with trends, tools, and strategies that will define the future of our industry.

Reserve Your Spot Now Ensure your participation in this pivotal discussion by securing your place at the webinar. Visit MORETrainingCenter.com or scan the QR code below to register. Let’s embark on this journey of growth and adaptation together in the St. Louis real estate market.

St Louis METRO EAST Real Estate Market Report for October 2023 with accurate data you can trust

The St. Louis METRO EAST Real Estate Market Report for October 2023, presented below, displays data for St Clair County in Illinois and by clicking on the infographic you will reveal the market report for every county in Illinois that is part of the St Louis metro area.  This infographic is a unique offering from MORE, REALTORS, which is renowned for its expertise in St. Louis real estate market intelligence. Additionally, our brokerage prides itself on having a team of the most experienced and knowledgeable agents who are deeply committed to serving our clients throughout the St. Louis metro area

St Louis METRO EAST Real Estate Report for October 2023

(click on infographic for complete report for all Illinois counties that are part of the St Louis metro area)St Louis METRO EAST Real Estate Report for October 2023

St Louis Real Estate Market Report for October 2023 with accurate data you can trust

The St. Louis Real Estate Market Report for October 2023, presented below, merges data from both the City and County of St. Louis. This infographic is a unique offering from MORE, REALTORS, which is renowned for its expertise in St. Louis real estate market intelligence. Additionally, our brokerage prides itself on having a team of the most experienced and knowledgeable agents who are deeply committed to serving our clients throughout the St. Louis metro area

We invite you to dive deeper into our comprehensive demographic, which also sheds light on the St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin County markets as well by tapping on the image below.


St Louis Real Estate Report for October 2023

(click on infographic for complete report including other counties)St Louis Real Estate Report for October 2023

Interest Rates Hit Two-Month Low, Easing from 23-Year High

The 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate has experienced a significant drop, reaching 7.4% – the lowest since September 20th, nearly two months ago. This shift provides a much-needed reprieve in the housing market, particularly following the rate’s surge to 8.03% on October 19th, a peak unseen since August 7, 2000, 23 years ago.

The October high had introduced uncertainty and slowed down the real estate market, impacting buyer affordability and seller activity. The recent decline to 7.4%, though still high historically, is a positive sign, potentially reinvigorating interest and activity in the housing market.

This change in rates is key for real estate professionals and buyers in areas like St. Louis. It presents an opportunity for buyers to reconsider their purchasing plans and for sellers to anticipate increased market interest. The future trajectory of interest rates remains a point of keen observation for the real estate market.


Mortgage Interest Rates

(click on chart for live, interactive chart)

Mortgage Interest Rates

 

 

St. Louis Foreclosure Rates Drop in October, But Certain Counties Experience a Rise

The St. Louis MSA recorded 311 foreclosure actions in October 2023. This represents a significant decrease of 12% from September 2023 and a substantial decline of 71% compared to October 2022. This suggests a strong recovery or stabilization in the real estate market in the St. Louis area, indicating fewer homeowners are facing foreclosure compared to the previous year.


  

 

Month over Month and Year Over Year Change in Foreclosure Activity in the St Louis MSA (By County)

Month over Month and Year Over Year Change in Foreclosure Activity in the St Louis MSA (By County)

St. Louis Ranks 9th Lowest for Average Down Payments among Top 50 U.S. Metros

In the world of real estate, down payments have emerged as a significant financial factor for homebuyers across the United States, and St. Louis is no exception. A recent report from LendingTree sheds light on the dynamics of down payments, and it’s essential for prospective buyers and sellers in St. Louis to understand how the local market fares in this regard.

St. Louis Down Payment Statistics:

  • St. Louis ranks 42nd out of the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas in terms of average down payments. This ranking places it 9th in terms of the lowest down payment amount in the 50 largest metros.
  • The average down payment in St. Louis comes in at $56,251. While this figure may not reach the heights seen in some of the more expensive coastal cities, it’s still a substantial amount.

Down Payment as a Percentage of Income:

  • One critical metric to assess affordability is the down payment as a percentage of the average annual household income. In St. Louis, the average down payment represents approximately 54.87% of the area’s average annual household income.

Challenges and Opportunities:

  • For many homebuyers in St. Louis, coming up with a down payment that accounts for over half of their annual household income can present challenges. It may require careful financial planning and discipline to accumulate the necessary funds.
  • On the positive side, St. Louis fares better than several major metros where down payments exceed 100% of the average household income.

Tips for St. Louis Homebuyers:

  • Prospective buyers in St. Louis should explore various options for coming up with a down payment, such as saving over time or investigating loan programs that require lower upfront cash.
  • Additionally, buyers should stay informed about down payment assistance programs available in the St. Louis area that can help make homeownership more accessible.


 

In summary, while St. Louis may not have the highest average down payments in the nation, it’s essential for local homebuyers to be aware of the financial aspects of purchasing a home. Understanding how down payments align with income and local market conditions is key to making informed decisions in the St. Louis real estate market. Stay tuned to StLouisRealEstateNews.com for more insights into the St. Louis real estate landscape.

Vigilance Against Real Estate Fraud: A Critical Reminder for the St. Louis Market

In the ever-evolving landscape of real estate transactions, the threat of fraud has become increasingly sophisticated and pervasive. Recent alerts from Westcor and other title insurance underwriters highlight a worrying trend in real estate fraud, impacting not just foreign-owned unimproved lots but also residential and commercial properties across the board. As a leading voice in the St. Louis real estate market, it’s crucial to address these concerns and reinforce the importance of vigilance among our agents and clients.


The Escalating Threat of Real Estate Fraud

  • Seller Impersonation: No longer confined to foreign-owned, unimproved land, fraudsters are now targeting all types of properties, including those with owner-occupied homes and commercial entities. This form of deception involves impersonating the property owner to illegally sell the property.
  • Earnest Money Fraud: A newer tactic involves the fraudster acting as both the buyer and seller, using counterfeit checks for earnest money deposits. These checks, often drawn from foreign banks, are for amounts higher than typical in a purchase agreement. The scam unfolds as the fraudster cancels the deal before the check clears, demanding a wire transfer refund of the deposit.
  • Fraudulent Contract Assignments: In some cases, a fraudulent buyer assigns their contract to an unsuspecting third party. This complex scam involves posting online listings for properties that aren’t actually for sale, leading to conflicting demands on escrow deposits and creating a dilemma for title agents.

Red Flags and Preventative Measures
To safeguard against these scams, it’s essential to recognize potential red flags:

  • Unusual Communication Patterns: Be wary of sellers who avoid in-person meetings or insist on communicating only via phone, text, or email.
  • Inconsistencies in Identity: Pay attention to discrepancies like accents not matching the owner’s name, inability to answer property-specific questions, or documents signed or notarized in unexpected locations.
  • Urgency and Aggression: A seller in a hurry or who becomes belligerent when asked for verification is a potential red flag.
  • Suspicious Financial Requests: Be cautious of sellers requesting fund transfers to foreign bank accounts or presenting foreign checks, especially for amounts exceeding typical earnest money.

Best Practices for Real Estate Professionals

  • Verification: Always verify the identity of all parties involved in a transaction. Utilize state websites for license authenticity checks and refer to resources like the European Union’s PRADO website for passport verifications.
  • Payment Methods: Avoid accepting foreign checks. Instead, insist on wired funds for transactions.
  • Legal Consultation: In cases of uncertainty, seek advice from a licensed real estate attorney, especially regarding escrow arrangements.
  • Reporting: If you encounter fraudulent activities, report them immediately to the relevant authorities, including providing copies of fraudulent identification and documents.

Staying Informed and Prepared

For more detailed information on these scams, visit the Federal Trade Commission’s guide on fake check scams and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network’s resources on title and escrow fraud.

Conclusion

The real estate industry in St. Louis, like many others, is not immune to the threat of fraud. It’s imperative that we, as professionals, remain vigilant, informed, and proactive in our efforts to protect our clients and ourselves from these deceptive practices. By staying aware and adhering to best practices, we can continue to uphold the integrity and security of real estate transactions in our region.

This article aims to educate and alert the St. Louis real estate community about the increasing sophistication of fraud in the industry, emphasizing the importance of vigilance and adherence to best practices to safeguard against these threats.

St. Louis Condo Sales Dip to a Nine-Year Low

For the 12-month period ended October 31, 2023, there were 3,097 condominiums sold in the St Louis 5-county core market which, as the Condo 12-Month Sales and Price Trend Chart below (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) shows, is the lowest total for 12-month sales since August 2014. The St Louis Condominium sales trend is faring slightly better than single-family homes sales are because, as I reported earlier this week, St Louis home sales have fallen to the lowest level since early 2013.

St Louis Condo prices increasing a slower pace….

As the chart at the bottom illustrates, the median price per foot for Condominiums sold in the St Louis area increased this year 8.1% from last year which, while it is a higher percentage increase than seen during the same period for homes, is a lower rate of price appreciation than the 11.0% seen in 2022 and 9.0% in 2021.


 

St Louis Condo 12-Month Sales Trend and Price Trend

(click on report for live, interactive report)St Louis Condo 12-Month Sales Trend and Price Trend

St Louis Condo Price Trends

St Louis Condo Price Trends