The Latest Data on the Home Affordable Modification Program

Ted Gayer, co-director of Economic Studies, Brookings Institute

Ted Gayer, Co-Director of Economic Studies, Brookings Institute

The U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Department of Housing and Urban Development released June data for the Obama administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). HAMP is the foreclosure prevention program targeted at borrowers who are delinquent in their mortgage payment or facing imminent risk of default on their mortgage.

It has always been an open question whether HAMP would prevent foreclosures or whether it would just delay inevitable foreclosures. While those who qualify for HAMP receive reduced mortgage Continue reading “The Latest Data on the Home Affordable Modification Program

More on the Homebuyer Tax Credit

Ted Gayer, co-director of Economic Studies, Brookings Institute

Ted Gayer, co-director of Economic Studies, Brookings Institute

According to this article, the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) has scored a Senate homebuyer tax credit at $16.7 billion. How does the JCT $16.7 billion cost estimate square with my previous back-of-the-envelope calculation of the cost of the tax credit of $73.9 billion?

For my calculation, I assumed a tax credit of $15,000, available for one year. The Senate proposal scored by JCT is for an $8,000 tax credit. I also assumed the tax credit would be available for one year, whereas the Senate proposal scored by JCT is for seven months (December 1, 2009 to June 30, 2010).
In my article, I computed a range of estimates, each assuming different parameter inputs. But let’s consider one of my estimates, which is based on a price elasticity of -0.65, baseline sales of 5.5 million houses annually, take-up of 85 percent (since high-earners are not eligible), and a median home price (for non-high-earning buyers) of $180,000. Using these assumptions, I arrived at an estimate of 253,000 additional houses sold due to the credit at a cost of $73.9 billion, for a cost-per-additional home of $292,000.

If we use the same parameter inputs, but change the credit to $8,000 from $15,000, and assume baseline sales of 2.8 million rather than 5.5 million (based on existing and new homes sales from December 2008 through June 2009), then we get an estimate of 69,000 additional sales at $19.6 billion. The $19.6 billion is higher than JCT’s estimate of $16.7 billion, but I would say within the ballpark. Part of the difference is due to JCT’s estimate that there will be a revenue gain of $1.8 billion from 2012 to 2014, since homebuyers must pay back the credit if they sell their house within three years. Even assuming the $1.8 billion in additional revenues, the point remains the same – an estimated $258,000 per additional house sold (i.e., $17.8 billion divided by 69,000) is a poorly targeted subsidy!

And now for the other side of the coin on the home-buyer tax credit

Publishers note: If you have been reading our blog for a while you are probably aware we have been supporters and advocates of the home-buyer tax credit as well as the extension and expansion of the credit, which happened last week. We realize however, there are people that do not support the credits for a variety of reasons. I came across the article below which was written prior to passage of the extension of the credit by Ted Gayer. I think this is a well written piece and does present the “other side of the coin”…Ted agreed to allow us to publish it to show another point of view on the credits.

Ted Gayer, Co-Director of Economic Studies, Brookings Institute

Ted Gayer, Co-Director of Economic Studies, Brookings Institute

Extending and Expanding the Homebuyer Tax Credit Is a Bad Idea

In an earlier piece, I argued that the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit was a poorly targeted subsidy that should be allowed to expire, as planned, at the end of November. Unfortunately, the President and Democratic Congressional leaders are moving toward extending the credit. Senator Dodd has suggested making the credit available to all home buyers (not just first-time buyers), subject to income requirements. Senator Dodd said he is working with Senator Isakson, who previously proposed a $15,000 tax credit to any buyer of a home. Continue reading “And now for the other side of the coin on the home-buyer tax credit