June home prices provide further evidence of "budding" recovery; further increases through 2012 predicted

dennis-norman-st-louis-realtor-The West leads the way however the Midwest is showing early signs of following suit…

This week Clear Capital® released its Home Data Index™ (HDI) Market Report with data through June 2012 which showed home prices in the U.S. grew both on a quarterly and yearly basis 1.7 percent from the prior period. St. Louis home prices are predicted to fall 1.1 percent in 2012 from the year before.Report highlights include:

  • June saw further support for a housing price recovery in sustained momentum with broad-based advances.
  • The nation’s home prices rebounded with quarterly and yearly gains of 1.7%.
  • Regional performance improved across the board.
  • The West led the regions in price recovery and forecasted growth, offering insight to the next chapter of recovery.
  • The Midwest gained ground over the rolling quarter, recovering from the persistent price declines over the last year.
  • Home price forecast through 2012 shows continued growth for the nation, regions, and a majority of the top MSAs.

“June home price trends provided further evidence that housing has turned the corner, with the momentum of the recovery picking up speed,” said Dr. Alex Villacorta, Director of Research and Analytics at Clear Capital. “Prices continue to climb at the national level, with each of the four regions showing improvements over last month. The West continued as the front runner in terms of overall market correction, with growth branching out from the low tier to mid and higher priced homes. Seeing price growth expand to other sub-markets is a key step in the evolution of this recovery. Even the Midwest started to catch up to the other regions, shedding the drag of recent declines.

“Looking forward over the rest of 2012, we expect to see national, regional, and most metro markets improve by varying degrees. And while it’s encouraging to see broad-based advancements coupled with positive forecasts, we remain cautiously optimistic. The current strength in housing fundamentals remains vulnerable to domestic and global economic challenges,” Villacorta added. “But right now the market is the strongest it’s been since the start of the downturn, and barring a major economic meltdown, we expect to see this organic growth sustain and strengthen through the end of the year.”

Chart 1: Observed Results

Chart 2: Observed U.S. Home Prices and Forecast through 2012


Chart 3: MSA Prices, REO Saturation, and Forecast through 2012

Top 50 Major Markets
Qtr/Qtr
Rank
Metropolitan Statistical Area Qtr/Qtr
% +/-
Yr/Yr REO Saturation 2012 Yr End
Forecast
1 Seattle, WA – Tacoma, WA – Bellevue, WA 8.4% 2.2% 16.1% 14.4%
2 Phoenix, AZ – Mesa, AZ – Scottsdale, AZ 8.7% 20.4% 22.8% 10.4%
3 Las Vegas, NV – Paradise, NV 4.7% 1.0% 42.2% 9.3%
4 Miami, FL – Ft. Lauderdale, FL – Miami Beach, FL 5.4% 11.6% 27.6% 8.1%
5 San Francisco, CA – Oakland, CA – Fremont, CA 5.5% 4.8% 24.8% 7.3%
6 Washington, DC – Arlington, VA – Alexandria, VA 6.3% 10.1% 11.6% 7.0%
7 San Jose, CA – Sunnyvale, CA – Santa Clara, CA 8.1% 6.5% 17.6% 6.6%
8 Minneapolis, MN – St. Paul, MN – Bloomington, WI 5.2% 13.1% 35.3% 6.5%
9 Jacksonville, FL 6.3% 6.4% 27.1% 5.0%
10 Baltimore, MD – Towson, MD 2.9% 0.4% 10.9% 4.7%
11 Hartford, CT – West Hartford, CT – East Hartford, CT 3.1% 9.1% 6.6% 4.5%
12 NY, NY – No. New Jersey, NJ – Long Island, NY 2.8% 4.7% 6.7% 4.0%
13 Denver, CO – Aurora, CO 3.6% 10.2% 18.3% 3.9%
14 Tampa, FL – St. Petersburg, FL – Clearwater, FL 1.3% 8.2% 23.6% 3.8%
15 Sacramento, CA – Arden, CA – Roseville, CA 2.3% 1.1% 33.8% 3.8%
16 Columbus, OH 13.0% 14.3% 27.4% 3.5%
17 Tucson, AZ 2.7% 0.3% 37.6% 3.4%
18 Bakersfield, CA 2.2% 4.9% 38.0% 3.2%
19 Houston, TX – Baytown, TX – Sugar Land, TX 1.3% 5.2% 21.0% 3.2%
20 Orlando, FL 1.4% 8.5% 29.7% 3.1%
21 Chicago, IL – Naperville, IL – Joliet, IL 1.6% -0.2% 32.8% 3.1%
22 Riverside, CA – San Bernardino, CA – Ontario, CA 1.9% 1.9% 37.4% 3.0%
23 Virginia Beach, VA – Norfolk, VA – Newport News, VA 1.5% 3.3% 16.3% 2.8%
24 Louisville, KY – IN 1.5% 5.2% 22.0% 2.6%
25 Los Angeles, CA – Long Beach, CA – Santa Ana, CA 1.5% 0.1% 28.0% 2.6%
26 San Diego, CA – Carlsbad, CA – San Marcos, CA 2.4% 1.1% 23.4% 2.6%
27 Pittsburgh, PA 3.2% 11.5% 6.1% 2.4%
28 Portland, OR – Vancouver, WA – Beaverton, OR 2.0% 3.3% 18.3% 2.4%
29 Fresno, CA 0.9% 3.1% 39.3% 2.3%
30 Memphis, TN -0.8% -6.4% 41.6% 2.2%
31 Boston, MA – Cambridge, MA – Quincy, MA 1.3% 3.2% 9.5% 1.7%
32 Dayton, OH 0.8% 7.6% 31.2% 1.6%
33 Richmond, VA 1.7% 3.4% 19.5% 1.3%
34 Dallas, TX – Fort Worth, TX – Arlington, TX 1.1% 3.4% 20.7% 1.2%
35 New Orleans, LA – Metairie, LA – Kenner, LA 0.1% -1.6% 18.2% 1.1%
36 Cleveland, OH – Elyria, OH – Mentor, OH 0.1% 0.3% 34.6% 1.0%
37 Honolulu, HI -1.4% 2.2% 8.6% 0.9%
38 Oxnard, CA – Thousand Oaks, CA – Ventura, CA 0.8% -2.8% 29.8% 0.8%
39 Nashville, TN – Davidson, TN – Murfreesboro, TN 1.4% 2.4% 19.4% 0.8%
40 Cincinnati, OH – Middletown, OH 0.6% -2.9% 24.2% 0.4%
41 Milwaukee, WI – Waukesha, WI – West Allis, WI 5.8% -2.9% 32.4% 0.4%
42 Rochester, NY -0.3% 3.7% 4.0% 0.0%
43 Providence, RI – New Bedford, MA – Fall River, MA -4.9% -8.7% 14.2% -0.3%
44 Philadelphia, PA – Camden, NJ – Wilmington, DE 0.7% -3.7% 14.1% -0.5%
45 Birmingham, AL – Hoover, AL 2.5% -9.3% 40.2% -0.6%
46 St. Louis, MO – IL 0.2% -1.4% 28.9% -1.1%
47 Detroit, MI – Warren, MI – Livonia, MI -0.9% -4.0% 52.2% -1.7%
48 Raleigh, NC – Cary, NC -1.1% -4.1% 16.1% -2.0%
49 Charlotte, NC – Gastonia, NC – Concord, NC -1.2% -4.9% 13.5% -2.4%
50 Atlanta, GA – Sandy Springs, GA – Marietta, GA 0.9% -12.2% 44.0% -3.2%
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