Existing Home Sales Increase In April As Tax Credits End

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

Sales increased for second consecutive month-

With the home-buyer tax credits ending April 30th, it’s not surprising that we saw an increase of home sales in March, and now in April, as buyers rushed to buy before the deadline to have a congract of April 30, 2010. According to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing home sales in the US in April increased 7.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.77 million units in April from a revised level of 5.36 million units in March, and increased 22.8 percent from a year ago when the rate was 4.70 million units (seasonally adjusted).

Prices on the rise for second consecutive month –

The median home price in the U.S. in April was $173,100 an increase of 2.1 percent from March’s $169,600 and an increase of 4.0 percent from a year ago when the median price was $166,500.

Inventories on the rise-

For the fourth consecutive month, the number of existing homes for sale in April increased bringing the total to 4,044,000, an increase of 11.5 percent from March and an increase of 2.7 percent from a year ago. The number of months “supply” this inventory represented in April, based upon current sales levels, increased to 8.4 months, up from 8.1 months in March but a 16.8 percent decrease from a year ago when there was a 10.1 month supply.

Local Hot Spots –

NAR publishes existing home sales for 20 major metropolitan areas of the U.S. Highlights from that report include:

  • Portland, Oregon for the second consecutive month, saw the largest annual increase in existing home sales in April with an increase of 49.2 percent in sales from a year ago.
    • Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania was number two with a 42.2 percent increase in existing home sales from a year ago.
    • Boston, Massachusetts was number three with a 41.8 percent increase in existing home sales from a year ago.
  • Indianapolis, Indiana led the way in price increases from a year ago, with April’s median home price of $124,600 representing a 17.1 percent increase from a year ago when the median price was $106,400.
    • Phoenix, Arizona came in second with a median price of $144,700, a 16.2 percent increase from a year ago when it was $124,500.
    • San Diego and Miami/Ft Lauderdale fell in behind Phoenix with annual median price increases of 15.4 percent, and 14.8 percent respectively.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the gain was widely anticipated. “The upswing in April existing-home sales was expected because of the tax credit inducement, and no doubt there will be some temporary fallback in the months immediately after it expires, but other factors also are supporting the market,” he said. “For people who were on the sidelines, there’s been a return of buyer confidence with stabilizing home prices, an improving economy and mortgage interest rates that remain historically low.”

I don’t like “seasonally adjusted rates of sales”:

If you have been reading my posts for a while you know by now I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers (nor does Standard & Poors now either as I wrote about), particularly when artificial stimuli, such as homebuyer tax-credits, can cause an unseasonal spike in sales activity. I much prefer to see the actual numbers and try to garner from them what is going on in the housing market.

The following are the ACTUAL Existing Home sales reported by NAR without any adjustment or fluff:

  • There were 521,000 existing homes sold in April which is a 21.4 percent increase from March and a 26.2 percent increase from a year ago.
  • Below are highlights from each region:
    • Northeast – 94,000 homes sold in April, an increase of 40.3 percent from March and an increase of 42.4 percent from the year before.
    • Midwest – 120,000 homes sold in April, an increase of 21.2 percent from March and an increase of 33.3 percent from the year before
    • South – 191,000 homes sold in April, an increase of 19.4 percent from March and an increase of 26.5 percent from the year before.
    • West – 116,000 homes sold in April, an increase of 12.6 percent from March and a increase of 9.4 percent from the year before.

Other highlights of the NAR Report:

  • Distressed sales accounted for 33 percent of all home sales in April, down from 35 percent in March.
  • First-Time homebuyers accounted for 49 percent of the home sales in April, up from 44 percent in March.
  • Investors were the buyers of 15 percent of the homes in April, down from 19 percent in March.
  • Repeat home buyers were responsible for approximately 36 percent of April’s sales down from March’s 37 pecent..

My Take On the Numbers:

For the past two months I have said that I am encouraged by the sales numbers as I am again this month. However I continue to echo my caution that I’m confident this boost is artificial and has been brought on by the homebuyer tax credit program coming to an end. The spring season has brought more homes on the market thereby increasing inventory, but the months supply doesn’t look bad at 8.4 months….but remember, that is based on a “seasonally adjusted” sales rate of 5.77 million homes; a rate that cannot and will not be sustainable in my opinion.

I think in May we will see “Pending Home Sales” drop significantly from April but we will still see an increased level of “Existing Home Sales” (although not at as high of level as April) as NAR counts “closed home sales” in this data, and since people that went under contract to buy before the April 30th deadline have until July 31st to close the sale, we won’t see the full effect of no tax credits on existing home sales until August.

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  • Thanks for these pointers. One thing I additionally believe is the fact credit cards presenting a 0 interest often lure consumers in with zero interest rate, instant endorsement and easy internet balance transfers, nonetheless beware of the main factor that will certainly void your own 0 easy streets annual percentage rate as well as throw you out into the bad house quick.

  • Hi, i think that i saw you visited my site thus i came to “return thefavor”.I am trying to find things to enhance my web site!I suppose its ok to use some of your ideas!!

  • Thanks for these guidelines. One thing I additionally believe is the fact that credit cards offering a 0 interest often attract consumers in zero monthly interest, instant acceptance and easy on the net balance transfers, nonetheless beware of the main factor that will certainly void your current 0 easy neighborhood annual percentage rate and also throw anybody out into the very poor house rapid.

  • It’s a shame you don’t have a donate button! I’d definitely donate to this excellent blog! I guess for now i’ll settle for book-marking and adding your RSS feed to my Google account. I look forward to new updates and will share this website with my Facebook group. Chat soon!|

  • Thanks for these tips. One thing I should also believe is credit cards giving a 0 interest rate often appeal to consumers together with zero rate, instant approval and easy on the web balance transfers, however beware of the most recognized factor that may void your current 0 easy road annual percentage rate plus throw you out into the poor house fast.

  • Howdy, i read your blog from time to time and i own a similar one and i was just wondering if you get a lot of spam comments? If so how do you prevent it, any plugin or anything you can recommend? I get so much lately it’s driving me crazy so any support is very much appreciated.

  • Thanks for your concepts. One thing we have noticed is always that banks and also financial institutions know the dimensions and spending patterns of consumers and also understand that many people max out their own credit cards around the holidays. They correctly take advantage of that fact and commence flooding a person’s inbox and snail-mail box together with hundreds of no interest APR credit card offers shortly after the holiday season comes to an end. Knowing that if you are like 98 in the American community, you’ll jump at the chance to consolidate credit card debt and move balances to 0 apr interest rates credit cards.

  • Thanks for these pointers. One thing I additionally believe is that credit cards featuring a 0 apr often lure consumers with zero monthly interest, instant endorsement and easy internet balance transfers, however beware of the main factor that is going to void your own 0 easy streets annual percentage rate as well as throw you out into the poor house quick.

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