More On The Housing Boom and Bust; Cause and Effect

Dennis Norman

While there has been much discussion about the causes and effects of the Housing Boom as well as the Bust (including by yours truly in prior posts) I don’t think we need to refrain from continuing to examine this part of history that is affecting millions of people across the country. Perhaps we can learn some lessons from this that will help us avoid another such collapse of the housing market in the future.

My topic today actually has a silver lining of sorts. The topic is debt and how so many homeowners across the country leveraged themselves into a mountain of debt during the housing boom only to later have that mountain collapse on them. My attention was drawn to this subject by a presentation done by Karen Dynan of the Brookings Institution entitled “Household Leveraging and Deleveraging“.

American’s Debt Grew At a Much Faster Pace Than Income

As you can see from the chart below the percentage of American’s disposable personal income that is needed to pay debt payments on mortgage and consumer debt peaked in the mid to late ’80s just over the 12 percent range but then dropped back down to just below 11 percent by the early 90’s. By the height of the real estate boom this percentage had grown significantly and peaked at just under 14 percent in 2007. Clearly the cost of home ownership during the boom was increasing at a faster pace than homeowners income.

debt-service-ratio-chart

Chart by Information St. Louis, Inc. - Data Source Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

Dynans’ report attributes the rise in debt to having probably been “the combination of increasing house prices and financial innovation.” I think “financial innovation” is a nice way to describe sub-prime, interest only and other such creative ways to finance homes that became prevalent during the boom.

As the chart below depicts, consumers mortgage debt grew dramatically during the housing boom even though “other debt” remained fairly constant.

Source: Household Leveraging and Deleveraging - Karen Dynan

“Everyone” Was Borrowing – Not Just Sub-Prime Borrowers

Contrary to what is sometimes portrayed, it wasn’t just sub-prime borrowers that were racking up debt during the housing boom. The chart below shows a fairly consistent increase in household debt across several demographics.

Source: Household Leveraging and Deleveraging - Karen Dynan

Obviously this rather rapid and intense increase in household debt, particularly mortgage debt, is a major factor behind the record number of mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures we are currently seeing. Rising home prices (at astonishing rates in some markets) during the boom forced many homeowners to take on more mortgage debt than they should. Many even admit buying homes with initial “teaser” interest rates realizing they would not be able to afford the payment in two years when the teaser is gone, but simply planned to sell the home (at a profit) beforehand and move on. This, like musical chairs, works until the music stops as it did in 2007.

The Importance of Defaults

If you have defaulted on your mortgage or lost a home in foreclosure, you are helping out our economy! Well, sort of. According to Dynan’s report, the record rates of charge-offs by lenders of mortgages as a result of defaults and foreclosures that have occurred in the past year has resulted in mortgage debt in 2009 declining 2 percent rather than staying flat.

Source: Household Leveraging and Deleveraging - Karen Dynan

Now for the Silver Lining-

I promised you a silver lining and here it is. American’s now have less household debt! Beginning with the 2nd quarter of 2008 consumers home mortgage debt, after increasing over a trillion dollars just two years before, actually decreased and has continued decreasing every quarter since. Consumer started decreasing as well in the 4th quarter of 2008 but has grown slightly again in the 1st quarter of this year.

Source: Household Leveraging and Deleveraging - Karen Dynan

In addition, as the debt-service chart at the beginning of this post shows, the portion of income that is necessary to pay debts for the American consumer has fallen over 1 percent from it’s peak and is still headed downward.

Is This Self-Control Or Is There No Choice?

Ah, critics could argue that the consumer has not really learned anything from the housing bust and the only reason debt has dropped is that banks and other lenders aren’t lending. Well, it is certainly true that lending standards have tightened significantly and bankers are acting like, uh, well, bankers again (the pre-boom ones) as shown by the chart below. However, Dynan’s report indicates that 20 percent of senior loan officers reported in May 2010 that demand for consumer loans had fallen relative to 3 months earlier. Probably better proof that consumers are exercising self-control is the MBA mortgage application survey which, in recent weeks, have shown a decrease in mortgage applications from both home-buyers as well as home owners seeking to refinance.

Source: Household Leveraging and Deleveraging - Karen Dynan

What Does The Future Hold In Store?

Karen Dynan suggests that we are going to see consumers continue the trend of reducing debt. She bases this on the high ratio of average household debt to assets which, as the chart below illustrates, peaked in the past year at a level that was 50 percent higher than in 2000.

Source: Household Leveraging and Deveraging - Karen Dynan

Dynans’ report goes on to say the following about the future:

  • Mortgage charge-offs are likely to remain high
  • Foreclosures will be on the rise again after being delayed by HAMP and other factors
  • Even when lender’s ease up, new borrowing is going to be dampened due to borrowers lacking home equity
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  • On a trip is commonly associated with relaxing, a vacation may bring on a lot of anxiety. From worrying about resort keeps to handling arriving at your destination, it sometimes would seem just like every factor of journey is frustrating. This article will present you with tips on how you can approach all those challenges and enjoy your time and energy aside. When traveling to inadequate countries or countries with high crime prices, always keep all your valuables from vision. Don’t put on a digicam around your shoulder or possibly a cheap view on your wrist when you don’t want to draw in the attention of criminals and beggars. Have a shoulder travelling bag for most of these goods instead. Look for discounts for all your travel arrangements. Taking a journey provides you unlimited regions to save money in. In everything from the flight, for the leasing auto, into a strolling visit in the metropolis, savings abound. Search the internet benefiting from deals and look what offers are for sale to you through your charge cards and subscriptions. Tend not to park your car your car on the air-port. Parking area costs can be sharp and departing your automobile in a parking area for an extensive time period will make some people uneasy. Have a family member or friend decrease you off of on the international airport. On the other hand, you may use the airport’s shuttle services. If you are worried about traveling with a huge have-on case, plan ahead. Airlines typically table in groups of five to ten series, so decide on a seating in row 11 or 21, not row 19. Also, as soon as the airline cell phone calls the seating prevent prior to you, go be in series. Using this method you’re hanging around at the front as opposed to the back again. Speak to any streets warrior plus they can tell you both testimonies of fantastic travels and tragedy journeys. A few of the issues they have got learned are already distributed in the following paragraphs. Continue to keep these tips in mind in getting yourself ready for your future journeys, and you are sure into the future residence with fantastic memories rather than headaches.

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  • Finding a lot of the entire world can bring about new points of views to just about nearly anything. Traveling might be entertaining, educative and adventurous. No person should have a problem with locating a fantasy spot. The following tips will help to enable you to get on your way. Look at alternative areas to stay. You don’t always have to stay in a motel to feel good on holiday. There are many “house-swapping” internet sites accessible, which enable you to continue in someones vacant property. Try looking for cabins or mattress and breakfasts. Alternate lodging might be among the most intriguing and entertaining areas of vacationing, so make sure to give it a look! If you want to save cash on vacation, be flexible if you are booking your plane tickets. Many times, affordable prices can be found when you are not committed to a unique leaving and coming date. Additionally, often costs are less costly in the event you take flight in to a near by city rather than the major one particular in the area. By going on the Internet one could accessibility a large amount of info relating to exactly where the initial one is traveling and about the area the first is moving. Researching neighborhood tourist attractions may help one map out their getaway well before it even begins. Using a prepare set up and data in the place can lead to a far more enjoyable encounter. Pack some plastic bags when taking a much longer trip. Plastic-type material totes usually come in useful once you spillage something, for toiletries or when you have some messy washing laundry. Meanwhile, certain areas have laundry options, therefore it is always useful to carry a plastic handbag with you to help keep your dirty laundry in. If you have numerous queries for the resort, call them through the night. Most main lodges maintain their entrance workdesk staffed twenty-four hours a day. When you have questions about arranging your living area or specific requires you want to discuss, getting in touch with late into the evening assures that you are currently a lot less probably going to be disrupted to the attendant to usually a visitor. Travelling is actually a enjoyable strategy to spend your time off. To maximize your journey time as well as get the most from your encounter, great information and knowledge regarding your location are necessary. Use this advice and start creating your intends to traveling.

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  • Many individuals love travelling. You may go over community or throughout the world. There will be new areas to check out. This information will allow you to find out your trip’s particulars simpler. When taking place an extended vacation, be sure to pack weather conditions proper clothes. Use the internet to check out the weather conditions channel’s web site and find out what kind of weather is expected within your journey place. As an example, don’t pack little dresses and golf boots if where by you’re heading has many rain and freezing weather. It not only will stop you from obtaining sick and tired, and also from acquiring unusual stares from the locals that can determine vacationers therefore making you feel awkward. Demand samples on the internet. Rather than pay for little travel-sizing versions of most your toiletry items, do an internet hunt for cost-free free samples. Companies regularly provide examples of new services which will be mailed appropriate to your residence. Require from tooth paste to shampoo or conditioner to cosmetic products while keeping a tiny stash within your vacation bag so you are prepared for your vacation. When you are concered about traveling with a huge carry-on bag, make plans. Airlines generally table in sets of five to ten rows, so choose a seat in row 11 or 21, not row 19. Also, as soon as the airline cell phone calls the seat prohibit prior to you, go get in range. In this way you’re waiting at the front as opposed to the back. Make sure to load liquids in plastic hand bags. Packing fluids with your baggage can cause disaster. Nobody wants to look at their luggage and find it filled up with spilled shampoo or conditioner and mouthwash. To prevent this type of calamity fully, remember to pack all drinks in ziplock luggage. Be sure to close the bags appropriately. Lots of people like to journey and feel excited about experiencing the world. There are so many various spots an individual can go and go to. If you get to a similar spot twice, it will probably be various each time. Utilizing the recommendations in the following paragraphs, it is possible to make best use of your touring and find pleasurable ways to really make it increasingly simple.

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  • There are plenty of stuff to consider in relation to camping, it might seem like there exists too much to deal with once you attempt to go camping outdoors. However when you break it downward, it isn’t everything that difficult to plan out a outdoor camping journey, one can learn that ahead of time. Those large, colorful plastic safe-keeping receptacles make exceptional spots to keep and manage all your camping equipment. Although in your house, ensure that it stays inside a closet or the garage and correct before leaving to your camping journey, put it inside the trunk area. It will always keep everything oxygen-limited, dry and easily available. Menu is vital when it comes to outdoor camping. You should know what your location is, and the way to return to civilization should you turn out to be shed. Generally take a roadmap of your place, and a compass to assist you. Also you can work with an exterior GPS that gives you the navigation info, and also more information including altitude. When you have a kid, load a quilt. You are able to place it on a lawn and then use it like a makeshift play region. Provide automobiles, dolls, or what ever items your son or daughter is into. They could perform without the need of obtaining as well unclean and you will instruct them that they have to continue to keep their playthings about the quilt for safekeeping. This helps to maintain issues from obtaining as well spread out. Possess a bandana or handkerchief along with you. In crisis situations, these kinds of towel turns into a bath towel, a potholder or a sheet of suitcases. Take a handful of with you if you go camping. One particular helpful item of equipment to take with you once you set off on your next outdoor camping trip can be a roll of duct tape. This product has lots of utilizes and could save you time and effort and money. Duct tape enables you to fix something. It may also fix up a tarp, resting travelling bag, or perhaps the tent. You can also put some within your ft . in a short time hikes in order that you don’t get lesions. It even performs like a bandage. As was mentioned initially on this article, a lot of preparation should be carried out prior to heading out with a camping out journey. The ideas presented in this article is a terrific way to make certain that you’ve looked after every one of the basics so that your camping outdoors journey is going to be as harmless and pleasurable as you can.

  • Regardless if you are a skilled tourist or organizing your first vacation, there are actually unquestionably numerous judgements any would-be visitor must make. The good news is, the procedure of organizing vacation gets to be less difficult if you possess the correct expertise and know how to start. This article is filled with useful advice on travelling and preparing. In case you are a female touring immediately on business, ensure that the blouses and underthings you use and carry can be washed from the drain and put up up or blow-dried. Neglected baggage and connections often means you come to a accommodation late into the evening, with just the garments face up to wear the following day. Light-weight, wrinkle-totally free polyester or micro-fiber blouses and tops may be rinsed and put up up, and you will be dried out in the morning, as will your underwear. When you are traveling by air flow, in the event that you need to look at the bags, make sure you that maintain no less than a big difference of apparel along with you in your bring-on bag. Then if your luggage by accident will get dropped and also the air carrier needs to track it lower you’ll at least possess a clean modify of garments. Regardless of whether it takes a couple of days to get your baggage and obtain it to suit your needs, you may probably rinse your garments on your resort. To get more interesting, memorable travel activities, consider reducing your budget. Travelling over a shoestring, exposes anyone to innovative circumstances and will show you men and women and locations that you might usually miss out on. Limiting your spending to bare minimum requirements will allow you to obtain a sensible impression of how natives stay, at the chosen vacation destination. To easily simplify the packaging process, attempt to load clothes in just a few colours. As an example, you could package only glowing blue and khaki dresses and pants and just t shirts that happen to be tones of glowing blue and khaki. This method makes sure that whatever you load coordinates with everything else different, so that you will by no means have issues finding something to utilize on the vacation. If you are vacationing with just about any prescribed medication, including childbirth management supplements, you have to have them within their initial storage containers with labels. It could also be valuable to obtain a message from your medical professional saying which you have a health care desire for the items. This way, you can not be charged with substance smuggling. While you have study at the beginning of this informative article, organising a vacation can be extremely worrisome. Bearing in mind some good tips and concepts will show to be beneficial to you with your time period of need to have. There is not any right or wrong best option about planning for a trip, but you can still always keep some advice in mind for next time.

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