New home permits and starts increase in May; New home shortage coming?

New construction dn-3

The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued their report on New Residential Construction for June 2011 showing a very slight increase in single-family home building permits from the month before (0.2 percent), and a 9.4 percent increase in new home starts compared to the month before.

The report shows the following new home construction activity for June 2011:

  • Building permits issued for single-family residences were at an annual rate of 407,000 homes which is 0.2 percent above the prior month and a decrease of 3.8 percent from a year before.
  • Housing starts for single-family residences were at an annual rate of 453,000 which is an increase of 9.4 percent from the prior month and an increase of 0.4 percent from a year before.
  • Homes completed were at a rate of 436,000 homes, the same as the month before, and a decrease of 36.3 percent from a year before.

As I say every month, we need to remember that all the numbers above are “seasonally adjusted” annual rates and the year over year comparisons are just comparing the numbers for the current month versus the a year before. Another way I like to look at where things stand is to simply look at the year to date data; actual numbers, not seasonally adjusted, compared to last years ytd numbers at this same time. I think this may give a little better comparison so those numbers are below:

  • For 2011 there have been 208,500 permits issued for new homes compared with 245,400 this time year for a decrease of 15.0 percent.
  • For 2011 there have been 213,200 new homes started compared with 256,600 this time last year for a decrease of 16.9 percent.
  • For 2011 there have been 197,200 new homes completed compared with 244,400 this time last year for a decrease of 19.3 percent.

Let’s do one of my favorite things and look at the raw numbers and not seasonally-adjusted numbers to compare construction activity to sales:

  • In the 12 month period through May 2011 (the most recent period sales data is available for) there were 300,000 new homes sold and there were 470,900 new homes completed, outpacing sales by 56.9 percent.

An interesting new twist on the numbers…

As I wrote about last month, a presentation I heard by Brendan Lowney of Economic Advisors, aptly titled “Groping Toward a Housing Recovery“, shed some different light on new home supply and gave me a better understanding of why we need new home starts to outpace new home sales in fact, by Lowney’s estimation, it should be 2 to 1. With this in mind, I took a look at housing starts for the prior 12 months versus new home sales and here is what I found:

  • There were 300,000 new homes sold in the 12 month period ending May 31, 2011.
  • There were 428,000 new homes started during this period or about 1.43 times the number of new homes sold. So, by Lowney’s analysis, we need about 172,000 more new homes started during this period to bring us to 2 to 1 which would be a “normal” rate.

While this is encouraging, the $64 question would be, exactly where do we need the new homes? Real estate is VERY local! I guess the first person that can answer this question (and can find financing for new spec homes) can cash in when the shortage of new homes comes……

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

47 comments to New home permits and starts increase in May; New home shortage coming?

  • … [Trackback]

    […] Info to that Topic: […]

  • Very interesting information!Perfect just what I was searching for! “Neurotics build castles in the air, psychotics live in them. My mother cleans them.” by Rita Rudner.

  • … [Trackback]

    […] There you can find 8990 additional Information to that Topic: […]

  • seo

    … [Trackback]

    […] Info on that Topic: […]

  • Hmm is anyone else experiencing problems with the images on this blog loading? I’m trying to determine if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.

  • … [Trackback]

    […] Read More here to that Topic: […]

  • … [Trackback]

    […] Info to that Topic: […]

  • Hi there, simply became aware of your blog thru Google, and found that it’s truly informative. I am gonna watch out for brussels. I’ll appreciate when you continue this in future. A lot of other folks shall be benefited out of your writing. Cheers!

  • … [Trackback]

    […] Info to that Topic: […]

  • … [Trackback]

    […] Read More on that Topic: […]

  • I like what you guys tend to be up too. This type of clever work and exposure! Keep up the superb works guys I’ve incorporated you guys to blogroll.

  • Good ?V I should definitely pronounce, impressed with your site. I had no trouble navigating through all tabs as well as related information ended up being truly easy to do to access. I recently found what I hoped for before you know it at all. Reasonably unusual. Is likely to appreciate it for those who add forums or anything, site theme . a tones way for your customer to communicate. Excellent task..

  • I’ve been absent for a while, but now I remember why I used to love this blog. Thank you, I¦ll try and check back more frequently. How frequently you update your site?

  • Hello! I could have sworn I’ve been to this blog before but after browsing through some of the post I realized it’s new to me. Anyways, I’m definitely happy I found it and I’ll be book-marking and checking back frequently!

  • It is appropriate time to make some plans for the future and it is time to be happy. I’ve read this post and if I could I want to suggest you some interesting things or suggestions. Perhaps you can write next articles referring to this article. I wish to read more things about it!

  • It’s really a cool and helpful piece of information. I’m happy that you just shared this useful info with us. Please keep us informed like this. Thank you for sharing.

  • Good write-up, I’m regular visitor of one’s site, maintain up the nice operate, and It’s going to be a regular visitor for a long time.

  • … [Trackback]

    […] Information to that Topic: […]

  • Ahaa, its good conversation on the topic of this piece of writing at this place at this web site, I have read all that, so now me also commenting at this place.|

  • Hi there would you mind stating which blog platform you’re using? I’m looking to start my own blog soon but I’m having a difficult time selecting between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your design seems different then most blogs and I’m looking for something completely unique. P.S My apologies for getting off-topic but I had to ask!

  • Magnificent web site. Lots of helpful info here. I¦m sending it to a few pals ans additionally sharing in delicious. And certainly, thank you on your sweat!

  • I love the efforts you have put in this, regards for all the great blog posts.

  • I was reading some of your blog posts on this site and I believe this internet site is rattling instructive! Keep on putting up.

  • I very like this blog. Everything is cleared.

  • … [Trackback]

    […] Read More Information here to that Topic: […]

  • … [Trackback]

    […] Read More Info here on that Topic: […]

  • Wow, wonderful weblog layout! How lengthy have you been blogging for? you make running a blog look easy. The total look of your web site is great, as well as the content!

  • … [Trackback]

    […] Read More on that Topic: […]

  • Hello There. I discovered your blog the usage of msn. That
    is a really smartly written article. I’ll make sure to bookmark
    it and return to read extra of your helpful information.
    Thank you for the post. I will certainly comeback.

  • I was curious if you ever considered changing the layout of your website?
    Its very well written; I love what youve got to say.

    But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people
    could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of
    text for only having 1 or 2 images. Maybe you could space it out better?

  • Thanks for some other informative site. The place else could I get that type of information written in such an ideal means?
    I’ve a venture that I am just now operating on, and I have been on the glance out for such

  • Quality articles is the crucial to attract the users to pay a
    quick visit the website, that’s what this site is providing.

  • hi!,I really like your writing so so much! percentage we keep up a correspondence extra approximately your post on AOL? I require an expert in this space to resolve my problem. May be that’s you! Looking forward to look you.

  • Great site. Plenty of helpful information here. I am sending it to several pals ans also sharing in delicious. And certainly, thanks to your sweat!

  • Would love to always get updated great blog! .

  • … [Trackback]

    […] Find More Info here on that Topic: […]

  • I’m curious to find out what blog system you are working with? I’m experiencing some small security problems with my latest blog and I would like to find something more risk-free. Do you have any solutions?

  • Thank you for some other informative blog. The place else may just I get that type of info written in such a perfect way? I’ve a mission that I’m just now working on, and I’ve been at the look out for such info.

  • Thank you for sharing excellent informations. Your web-site is very cool. I am impressed by the details that you have on this site. It reveals how nicely you understand this subject. Bookmarked this website page, will come back for more articles. You, my pal, ROCK! I found simply the info I already searched everywhere and just couldn’t come across. What an ideal website.

  • Hello! Quick question that’s entirely off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My website looks weird when viewing from my apple iphone. I’m trying to find a theme or plugin that might be able to resolve this issue. If you have any recommendations, please share. Cheers!

  • Hi just wanted to give you a quick heads up and let you know a few of the images aren’t loading correctly. I’m not sure why but I think its a linking issue. I’ve tried it in two different web browsers and both show the same results.

  • Terrific post however , I was wondering if you could write a litte more on this subject? I’d be very grateful if you could elaborate a little bit further. Many thanks!

  • I was very pleased to find this web-site.I wanted to thanks for your time for this wonderful read!! I definitely enjoying every little bit of it and I have you bookmarked to check out new stuff you blog post.

  • Some truly interesting information, well written and loosely user friendly.

  • I really love your blog.. Great colors & theme. Did you create this
    site yourself? Please reply back as I’m wanting to create
    my own personal blog and would love to learn where you got this from
    or exactly what the theme is called. Appreciate it!

  • It’s going to be finish of mine day, however before end I am reading this great paragraph to improve my know-how.
    adreamoftrains website hosting companies

Leave a Reply

You can use these HTML tags

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>