Real Estate Recovery "On Its Way"

real estate recovery

Tyler Frank,
Paramount Mortgage
NMLS ID 942420

“The (real estate) recovery has been much more like the tortoise than the hare,” said Stephen Blank, a senior resident fellow of the Washington-based Urban Land Institute. “We’ve become used to slow relief. But we have finally turned the corner.”

Real estate markets on both coasts in places like; New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Boston were the first to emerge from recession and will pick up their pace of recovery through 2013, said Blank, a principal researcher for Emerging Trends. He was the main speaker at the annual outlook presented by ULI’s St. Louis chapter.

Big investors scared away by the high prices in coastal cities will look more closely at properties in secondary markets, including St. Louis, experts predict. David Griege, executive vice president at Paramount Mortgage, believes home sales will be much stronger this spring and summer than in past years.

In most of the 51 cities covered by the Emerging Trends report, recent job creation should push down office and factory vacancy rates, said the report, which is based on interviews or survey responses of more than 900 real estate experts. Lowering vacancies further is the absence of construction during the recession.

As it has in previous reports, St. Louis sits near the bottom of the markets examined. In real estate prospects for 2013, St. Louis ranks 43rd for investment, development and home building. Detroit is last in all three categories.

St. Louis and other secondary markets, many of them in the Midwest, barely rate mentions in the 2013 outlook. It says, “St. Louis shows strong industry diversification but still struggles with job growth.”

Economist Jack Strauss, noted that St. Louis continues to experience slow growth in jobs and population. But a strong point is the area’s per capita income, which is higher than the national average, and its below-average cost of living, said Strauss, director of the Simon Center for Regional Economics at St. Louis University.

Blank pointed out that St. Louis has a relatively high percentage of Generation Y residents, young adults entering their high-earning years. Persuading them to stay is key to the region’s success, he said.

Emerging Trends said that to various degrees, the economic rebound will continue to spread across the country. The report found that only six of the 51 markets evaluated show declines in investment prospects.

“This is a perception study,” he said. “It may have no basis in reality.”

The job is to correct the perception of St. Louis by showing areas of strength, Blank said.

About the author: Tyler is Paramount Mortgage Company’s general counsel as well as a licensed mortgage loan originator. Tyler is a 1999 graduate of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill where he was a member of the university’s Dean’s List. He received his J.D. from Washington University’s School of Law in 2002 and is a member of the Missouri Bar Association and the Illinois State Bar Association.

Tyler is “big brother” mentor and role model to a young man through the Big Brothers Big Sisters of Eastern Missouri. He is a member of the St. Louis Sports Commission’s Associates Board, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill’s Alumni Admissions Committee and Mary Institute and St. Louis Country Day’s Alumni Executive Committee. In 2012, Tyler successfully summited Mt. Kilimanjaro (19,341 ft.) in Tanzania, Africa, and ran his first full marathon.

Tyler can be reached by email at tfrank@paramountmortgage.com or by phone at 314.372.4313.

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