New Home Construction Trend In St Louis Remains Steady In October

New home construction in St. Louis during October held at about the same trend as September with 4,289 new home permits issued for the 12-month period ended October 31, 2019, a decline of 8.04% from a year ago when there were 4,664 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri.  This is about the same as September when the 12-month trend was down 8.05% from the prior 12-month period.

As the table below shows, 4 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago.  This is the same as last month, with the same four counties on the decline.  For the 9th month in a row, Franklin County suffered the biggest loss at 41.31%.  At the other end of the spectrum, St Charles County had the largest increase at 7.55% and took removed Warren County from the number one slot after Warren County had 9 consecutive months of the highest growth in permits.

  

St Louis New Home Building Permits – October 2019

St Louis New Home Building Permits - October 2019

 

Cyber Monday Real Estate Deals?

Are you one of those people like me that didn’t go out and fight the crowds on Black Friday in search of deals and instead waited until today to catch the Cyber Monday deals online from the comfort of your home or office?  Or perhaps you were out Friday shopping and now you are back at it online?  In any event, don’t forget that Cyber Monday deals come 7 days a week this time of the year in real estate!  That’s right!  Like I discussed here on Black Friday, some of the best deals of the year on St Louis real estate occur from now until the end of the year.

As the STL Market Chart (exclusively provided by MORE, REALTORS) below illustrates, in the St Louis 5-County Core market home prices (the red line) peaked in July and, with the exception of a little uptick in August, have trended downward since reaching the lowest point since April of this year.  St Louis home sales (the pink line) have shown pretty much the same result, hitting the lowest level in November since February.

It shouldn’t be a surprise…

What is happening in the St Louis real estate market presently does not come as a surprise because home sales are very seasonal and, the seasonal fluctuation we are seeing now, happens every year.  This is why I chose a 25-month chart below, so you can see the last year was pretty much the same pattern.  also, I wanted to show that prices continued to fall last year until hitting bottom in February of this year and I would expect a similar pattern this year.  That does not mean however that you want to wait until February to buy as the prices shown are based upon closed deals.  The typical real estate transaction takes 4-6 weeks to close, so those “February” home prices were from sales transactions that originated in December and January for the most part.  Therefore, from now until the end of the year the best time to buy a home in St Louis from a value standpoint!

“Cyber Monday” St Louis Home Prices

(click on chart for live, interactive chart)

Cyber Monday St Louis Home Prices

 

Black Friday Shopping? Buy a house and save a bunch of money!

As you get ready to head to the stores today for all those Black Friday bargains, perhaps you should jump on St Louis Real Estate Search and find a few houses to look at as well?  Well, if you have been thinking about buying a home, you would do well to buy now rather than wait for spring.  As the table below shows, based upon data just released from ATTOM Data Solutions, people in Missouri that buy homes in October, November or December get the best deals of the year!  This may account for the fact that there were 25% more homes sold during the 4th quarter than during the 1st quarter.

Now is the BEST time to buy in St Louis!

As the chart at the bottom shows, home prices in St Louis have hit their lowest point during January in 2 of the prior 3 years and in February on the third one.  These prices are reported as of the closing of the sale, so if prices are typically the lowest on homes that closed in January, given that the typical sale takes 4-6 weeks to close, that makes from now until the end of the year the best time to buy a home in St Louis from a value standpoint!

Best Time Of Year To Buy A Home

Best Time Of Year To Buy A Home

Source: ATOM Data Solutions

St Louis 5-County Home Prices and Sales – Past 36 Months

St Louis 5-County Home Prices and Sales - Past 36 Months
Source: STL Market Charts – MORE, REALTORS

Percentage of Homeowners that Sold FSBO In Past Year Near Record Low

Annually, the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) does a massive survey of people that purchased and sold a home in the prior year to gather information about them and their transaction.  This is done using a 125 question survey that was sent to nearly 160,000 people, in randomly sampled geographic areas, that purchased or sold a home in the prior year.  The results are published by NAR in their “Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers“.  From this publication, some great information is obtained (in my humble opinion, the best and most accurate information available)  about home buyers and sellers as well as the process they went through, the homes they bought or sold as well as about their agent if they used one.

Sellers’ appetite for selling their own homes remains at a near-record low…

As the chart below, which covers the time period from 2001 to 2019, illustrates, the percentage of homes sold using a real estate agent or broker (the blue bars) has increased from 79% in 2001 to 89% in this year’s survey.  Meanwhile, the percentage of sellers that sold their own homes “For Sale By Owner” (FSBO) declined from 13% in 2001 to 8% in this year’s survey.

Why the decline in FSBO’s?

St Louis Area Buyer’s Markets – Town and Country Near Top Of List

As the table below shows, from MORE, REALTORS®  exclusive STL Market Report, the overall St Louis MSA housing market has a current supply of homes for sale equal to just a little over two-and-a-half months making it very much favor sellers.  The St Louis 5-County Core market (city of St Louis and counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin) have, as the second table shows, an even lower supply of homes for sale with a 2.32 month supply.

However, as the list at the bottom shows, there are some municipalities within the St Louis area that are buyers markets, 12 in total to be exact.  A healthy inventory, one that is considered “balanced” and not favoring buyers or sellers, is generally 5 or 6 months, so to make this list of buyers markets there must be greater than a 6-month supply of home currently for sale.  At the top of the list is Pine Lawn a small municipality in northern St Louis county, followed by Swansea IL and then Town and Country.  Town and Country with 4 homes sold in the past month and 54 active listings currently has a 13.5 month supply of homes for sale.

St Louis Home Sales Trending Upward Slightly

After peaking in May 2018 with 27,829 homes sold in the prior 12-months, the St Louis home sales trend has trended downward until hitting 26,852 homes sold in the 12-month period ended August 31, 2019.  However, for the two months since this low, St Louis home sales have trended upward slightly, reaching 26,888 homes sold in the 12-month period ended October 31, 2019.

St Louis 5-County Core Market Home Sales Trend – Past 5 Years

St Louis 5-County Core Market Home Sales Trend - Past 5 Years

Foreclosures Spike In October In Some St Louis Areas

The foreclosure rate for the St Louis MSA during October increased 11.3 percent from the month before however, it was still nearly 25 percent (24.5%) lower than October 2018, according to data just released from ATTOM Data Solutions.  As the table below shows, there were some real mixed results this month.  For example, St Charles County saw a 150% increase in foreclosures from the month before increasing from 10 in September to 25 in October but is down over 60% from October 2018.  The city of St Louis is the only county of significant size in the St Louis MSA that saw both an increase in foreclosures from the month before (65.8^) as well as an increase from a year ago (43.2%).

  

St Louis MSA Foreclosures – October 2019

St Louis MSA Foreclosures - October 2019

St Louis Real Estate Market Update VIDEO – November 2019 – Low-Interest Rates And Consistent Sales Trends

The St Louis real estate market trends remain steady and consistent! The St Louis home sales and price trends give me an optimistic outlook for next year.  Low-interest rates continue to offset some of the cost of the increases in home prices that have occurred. Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.

In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area!  

Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll  answer that question for you.
You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".) St Louis Real Estate Market Update Video - St Louis Home Prices

Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time!  See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com 
Save Commission On Your Home Sale Without Sacrificing Service! See how- FairCommissionRates.com

Actual “Cost” Of St Louis Home Today Over 7 Percent Lower Than Year Ago

Thanks to a strong economy and low-interest rates, the actual cost of a home today in St Louis is lower than it was a year ago, in spite of the fact that the median price of homes sold in St Louis has increased by 5.64% in the past year.   Most people buying a typical home in St Louis finance nearly all of the purchase price, therefore, the cost of financing plays a significant role in the true cost of a home.  Buyers decide what they can afford (as do lenders) based upon the house payment, not the price of the home.

The cost of a home today in St Louis versus a year ago…

As our STL Market Chart below shows, the median price of a home sold in the St Louis 5-County core market in October of this year was $200,000, 5.3% higher than last October when the median price of homes sold was $189,900.  However, as our mortgage interest rate chart below shows, the rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is currently 3.78%, over a full percentage point less than October 2018 when the rate was 4.83%.

If we do a little math and use our mortgage payment calculator, we find that if someone bought a median-priced home in St Louis in October of 2018 at $189,900 and financed 100% of the purchase at the current rate at the time (4.83%), their payment would have been $1,027 per month.  If a person were to buy a median-priced home in St Louis today at $200,000 and finance 100% of the purchase at the current rate of 3.78%, their payment would be $958.  So, even though the price of the home increased over 5%, the payment on the home (at current prices) actually dropped by 7.2% showing just how much impact interest rates have on the cost of a home.

What are buyers waiting for?

We are entering the “slow season” for real estate, winter, a time when, year after year, home prices typically decrease until hitting a low around January and then start to increase as the weather warms.  Therefore, we are in the period when home prices will be the lowest they will be for the year, interest rates are near the lowest they have been, so, if I were considering buying a home, I would jump into action as I just don’t see how it’s going to get better than this anytime soon.

Home Affordability Improves In St Louis During Third Quarter

Home affordability improved in the St. Louis metro area during the 3rd quarter, with 4 of the 7 largest counties seeing an improvement in their affordability index from the prior quarter and 5 of the 7 seeing an improvement in affordability from a year ago, according to the latest data from ATTOM Data Research.

The greatest improvement in affordability was in Franklin County.

As the table below shows, Franklin County saw a 12% improvement in housing affordability from the prior quarter and an 11% improvement from a year ago.   Jefferson, St Charles and St Clair (IL) County saw improvements in affordability from the prior quarter as well.

St Louis County suffered the greatest decline in housing affordability.

St Louis County saw affordability decline 12% from the prior quarter and 10% from a year ago.

Home prices are outpacing wages in 5 of the 7 counties covered…

Median Price of Homes Sold in Franklin County In Past 12 Months Remain Flat And Sales Fall

The median price of homes sold in Franklin County during the 12 month period ended October 31, 2018, was $150,000 according to the STL Market Report™ from MORE™, REALTORS®.  As the STL Market Report™ below shows, this is exactly the same as during the prior 12-month period. During the most recent 12-month period, there were 1,282 homes sold in Franklin County, a decrease of 2.29% from the prior 12-month period.  There is currently a 4.13 month supply of homes for sale in Franklin County and listings have been on the market a median time of 98 days.

STL Market Report – Homes – Franklin County

(click on table to go to live report)

STL Market Report - Homes - Franklin County