St Louis Home Sales Trend Lowest In 2-Years with YTD Sales 9 Percent Lower Than Last Year

There are many headlines out there talking about home sales down 20% from last year on a national level but here in St Louis we are not seeing as large of a decline in home sales.  As the chart below shows, for the 12-month period ended August 31, 2022, there were 27,891 homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market, which as the trend line (dark green) depicts is a declining trend we’ve seen for the past 11 months now.  This 12-month trend is the lowest trend since September 2020 when there were 27,572 homes sold in the prior 12-months.  However, year to date there are have been 17,480 homes sold in the St Louis area (lighter green line on the chart) which is only a little over 9% less than this time last year when there were 19,875 homes sold.

St Louis 5-County Core Market – 12-Month Home Sales Trend and YTD Home Sales

(click on chart for live, interactive chart)St Louis 5-County Core Market - 12-Month Home Sales Trend and YTD Home Sales

Mortgage Interest Rates Top 7 Percent for first time in over 20 years

Today, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 7.08% marking the first time in over 20-years the rate has gone above 7%.  Historically speaking, as the 2nd chart shows, this is not that high of an interest rate and, in fact, lower than the median rate over the past 50 years, however, it’s a very high rate based upon the the recent past.

The affect of interest rates on home prices…

Interest rates just began increasing in the past few months, rising above the 4% level in February, so it will take time to see the impact of this on home prices.  We’re beginning to see the effect in prices somewhat, particularly with the decrease of “overbids” and an increase in reduced prices on active listings, but nothing too dramatic yet.  For example, as the bottom chart shows, the median price of homes sold in St Louis in August was $280,000, a nearly 11% increase from the median price of $252,450 a year ago. Since home prices typically peak around June, they are usually lower in August than June or July.  If we examine this to see if perhaps there was a bigger decline in those months this year than last we find that last year prices dropped 3/4 of 1% from June to July and then dropped 4% from July to August, for a total decline of 4.7% from June’s peak to August.  This year, prices dropped 3.9% from June to July, then 1.7% from July to August for a total decline of 5.6%, only slightly higher than last year.  I do think we’ll see a larger impact than this, but thus far it’s not so bad.

 

Mortgage Interest Rates Based Upon the MND Rate Index

(click on chart for live, interactive chart)

Mortgage Interest Rates Based Upon the MND Rate Index

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Interest Rates 1970-Present

(click on chart for live, interactive chart)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Interest Rates 1970-Present

St Louis 5-County Core Home Prices and Sales – Past 25 Months

(click on chart for live, interactive chart)

St Louis 5-County Core Home Prices and Sales - Past 25 Months

Will St Louis Home Prices Decline?

The short answer is yes.  They decline every year as we head into winter due to the seasonal nature of the business.  If you look at the first chart below which depicts the median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market since 1998, you will notice a very consistent pattern of prices rising in the spring and summer, then declining in the fall and winter.  For the most part, the other pattern you will see is that the peak each spring is higher than the spring before and the bottom each winter is higher than the winter before, but there are exceptions to that such as after the bubble burst in 2008.

So, as we head into the fall season, we can expect home prices to decline.  The question is, given all that is going on in the economy, including mortgage interest rates in excess of 6%, will the decline be more than the typical “seasonal adjustment”?  To address this, the first thing we can look at is the percentage decline we’ve seen in the recent past from the summer peak to September which is as follows:

  • 2019 – Summer peak to September –10.9%
  • 2020 – Summer peak to September – 0% (no change)
  • 2021 -Summer peak to September –1.9%
  • 2022 -Summer peak to September –10.2%

What this reveals is this years decline, while definitely larger than the last two years, is actually less than the decline in 2019 (which was a good market) so this doesn’t jump out as particularly alarming.  I think it’s worth saying that we are no doubt going to have a market “correction” or “adjustment” at a minimum because home prices could not simply keep increasing like they have been so this years seasonal adjustment may just be a return to normal.  Having said that though, since the “bottom” of the winter market price-wise doesn’t usually come until January or February, we will need to watch the next couple of months to see if this downward price trend remains consistent with historic norms or in fact picks up steam and looks like it’s headed for a bigger decline than normal.  My guess is at this point it the latter.  While I’m not a “gloom and doomer” in fact, I like to think of my self as an opportunist and see opportunities in challenging markets, I just think I’m being realistic.  There are a lot of moving balls in the air right now with regard to our economy and more unknowns than certainties in my opinion.

We can’t underestimate the impact of interest rates either…

St Louis Home Sales Trend Declines In August For the 11th Consecutive Month

The 12-month home sales trend in the St Louis 5-county core market declined in August to 27,840 homes sold in the 5-county area during the prior 12-months, marking the lowest 12-month sales number since September 2020.  As the chart below illustrates, the 12-month home sales trend in St Louis has declined now for 11-months in a row landing just slightly higher than the 12-months sales of 27,573 for September 2020.

The St Louis home sales trend is still higher than any period after August 2006 and prior to September 2020…

At the current level, the St Louis home sales trend is slightly above the trends prior to September 2020 going back to the peak of the bubble in August 2006 when there were 27,974 homes sale in the prior 12-months. However, if it declines further will be in the range of the years 2016 through mid-2020.

St Louis Home Price Trend Outpacing Sales…

The chart below also shows the median price per foot for homes sold during the prior 12-month period.  As it shows, the home price trend has continued to increase while the sales trend has been declining however that changed in June when the price trend started declining.  If you look back t prior years you will see that is earlier than when the normal seasonal adjustment comes so it is likely indicative of the market.

Year To Date Home Sales in St Louis Metro Area Down Nearly 11 Percent From Last Year

There have been 21,164 homes sold in the St Louis Metro area during the first 7-months of this year which, as the STL Market Chart below illustrates, is a decline of 10.7% from the same time last year when there were 23,709 homes sold.

2022 home sales fairly consistent with 4 out of 5 prior years…

As I stated above, St Louis YTD home sales are lagging behind last year however, last years sales appear to be the market peak and the difference, as shown below,  between current YTD sales and the years prior to last year is not as significant.

  • Through July 2020, there were 21,344 homes sold in the St Louis MSA, less than 1% more than this year.
  • Through July 2019, there were 21,702 homes sold in the St Louis MSA,  2.5% more than this year.
  • Through July 2018, there were 22,095 homes sold in the St Louis MSA, 4.4% more than this year.
  • Through July 2017, there were 21,994 homes sold in the St Louis MSA, 3.9% more than this year.

St Louis slowing home sales trend appears to increasing….

Below the chart is our STL Market Report for the St Louis metro area, which shows there were 40,171 homes sold during the 12-month period ended July 31, 2022,  a decline of nearly 6.5% from the prior year.  This, in contrast to the double-digit decline noted above for the most recent 7-months of that 12-month period indicates that the slowing home sales trend is increasing.  We’ll get a lot more clearer picture of this in the next month or two as we see what happens in the economy, interest rates, etc.

One-Third Of St Louis Homes Listed For Sale Have Reduced The Price

We continue to see more price reductions on listings, or, as some agents prefer to refer to them as “price improvements”, throughout the St Louis area.  As the infographic below depicts, as of today one-third of the active listings in the St Louis 5-County core market have a current asking price that is below their original price.

Nearly One-Third Of St Louis Homes Listed For Sale Have Reduced The Price

Price reductions are quickly showing up more and more on real estate listings in the St Louis area.  As the Infograph below illustrates, 31% of the current active listings in St Louis have had at least one price reduction.  Since the price homes sell at isn’t known until closing and a home sale typically takes 4 to 6 weeks to close, the actual sold prices won’t reflect these price reductions for a while.  For example, in the past 30 days (through today) there have been 2,381 closings of home sales in the 5-county St Louis core market at a median price of 104% of the original list price.  In about a month we’ll revisit that stat and see how things look.

The Coming Recession and Its Potential Affect on St Louis Home Prices

Ever heard the expression “It’s not if, but when..”?  That is something that I’ve heard for a while now about a recession.  With everything that has happened to our economy including rising interest rates, rising inflation, the government printing more and more currency and running up greater debt, it seemed inevitable we would see a recession.  To officially be in a recession, the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) has to fall for two successive quarters.  For the first quarter of this year, GDP declined at an annual rate of 1.6%.  The second quarter GDP numbers won’t be released until later this month (July 28th) however, the GDPNow forecasting model of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is forecasting a decline of 2.1% in GDP for the 2nd quarter of this year at this point.  If their forecast is correct, we will officially be in a recession.

What happens to St Louis home prices during a recession?

There are many factors at play in every recession that make them unique, such as unemployment rates, interest rates, etc, making it unrealistic to think that home prices are going to behave the same way during every recession, however, I thought it would be worth looking at what happened during the last couple of recessions.

2020 Recession (Q1 and Q2) 

We had a short recession in early 2020 caused primarily by COVID that only lasted the minimum period of two quarters.  During this period, as the chart below shows, St Louis home prices continued to increase at a fairly consistent rate.  In 2019 the median price of a home in the St Louis MSA was $188,575 and in 2020 it was $208,000, an increase of 10.3%.  Then in 2021, the year after the recession, the median St Louis home prices was $227,000, an increase of 9.1% from the year before.

Over One-Fourth of St Louis Homes For Sale Have Reduced Asking Prices

Price reduction, what’s that?  All we seem to have heard about the last couple of years with regard to home prices is how much OVER the list price buyers were having to pay in order to buy a home.  So, to be talking about price reductions today seems odd. However, as the infographic below illustrates, there have been listings with price reductions over the past couple of years, it’s just the current level of them is higher than we have seen in a while.

New Listings To New Contracts Ratio Increases This Month

For the first three weeks of June there were 1,475 new listings of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-county core market, according to the STL Real Estate Trends Report from MORE, REALTORS®.  During the same period, there were 1,194 new contracts written on homes for sale resulting in a new listing to new contract ratio of 1.25.  This ratio of listings to new sales is higher than it was 3 weeks ago when I shared the last update from the STL Real Estate Trends report and it was 1.05 at that time for the period reported which was the first 3 weeks of May.

It was at the end of last week that the mortgage bond market blew apart forcing mortgage interest rates up so when our new report for this week is release next Thursday we’ll see what effect that had on the market.

Will Home Prices Come Crashing Down?

After over 40 years in the real estate business in St Louis I’ve seen many times just how fast a good, or even great housing market can turn sour as well as the other way around.  Two years ago, economic conditions relevant to the housing market included:

Today, the above conditions are:

Does this mean St Louis home prices will come crashing down?
First off, I’m not an economist, in fact I didn’t even attend college and I certainly don’t have a crystal ball showing me the future, but I am a data junkie that has lived through a variety of markets spanning more than 4 decades.  My experience as well as my study of past markets as well as current indicators of things to come certainly give me an opinion.  In times past, my opinions on the market have been spot on, almost to the point that I even surprised myself (such as in October 2006, at the peak of the housing boom when I predicted the collapse) and other times I’ve been wrong, sometimes way wrong.  The reality is that the housing market is affected, or can be affected by so many different economic factors, as well as social issues, consumer sentiment and more that I don’t believe anyone can predict what it’s going to do accurately consistently.

St Louis YTD Home Sales Down Nearly Nine Percent From Last Year

There have been 9,645 homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market during the first 5-months of this year which, as the STL Market Chart below illustrates, is a decline of 8.8% from the same time last year when there were 10,579 homes sold.

2022 home sales outpacing 2020…

While this years St Louis home sales are lagging behind last years, as the chart below also shows, 2022 YTD home sales is 2.8% higher than in 2020 when there were 9,382 YTD home sales.

$1 Million+ home sales going strong…

The bottom chart shows there have been 189 one-million dollar+ homes sold in St Louis year-to-date through May 31st, a slight increase over last year when there were 187 homes sold during the period.  This years $1,000,000+ home sales are 89% higher than they were during the period in 2020.

St Louis Home Values Declined In Past 12-Months After Inflation

With the bidding wars we’ve seen on listings resulting in sold prices that exceed the asking price in St Louis over the past couple of years, it’s hard to imagine that home values could be lower today than a year ago.  Now, before you call me crazy, I’m not saying that St Louis homes are SELLING for LESS now than a year ago.  As our STL Market Chart below shows, the median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market was $254,950 in May 2021 and $270,000 last month, for an increase in sales price of 5.9%.  However, given that, as the chart at the bottom shows, the inflation rate has increased 8.6% during the past 12-months, St Louis home prices have not increased as much as inflation, thereby leaving them worth less today than they were worth a year ago after adjusting for inflation.

Home prices last month would have needed to be $276,829 to keep pace with inflation…

In order to keep pace with inflation and make a median-priced St Louis home worth the same in today’s dollars as it was worth a year ago it would have be worth $276,829 today at the current rate of inflation.

If we look farther back it gets better….

New Home Building Permits In St Louis For Most Recent 12-Months Decline Nearly 10 Percent

There were 5,138 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended April 30, 2022, a decrease of 9.69% from the same period a year ago when there were 5,138 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).   Four of the seven counties covered in the report saw a double-digit decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago.


  

St Louis New Home Building Permits -April  2022

St Louis New Home Building Permits -April  2022

 

Pending Home Sales Increase In Midwest Region In April…down in all other regions

The pending home sales index from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) was released showing the midwest region as the only region that had an increase from March to April.  According to the NAR report below, the pending home sales index for the midwest increased 6.6% from March to April while declining 3.9% for the nation as a whole.  As the table below shows, all while all four regions in the U.S. saw a decline in the pending home sales index from a year ago, the midwest fared the best again showing only a 2.8% decline while the other regions all saw a double-digit decline.

National Association of REALTORS®

Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)

National Association of REALTORS®  Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)

 

 

St Louis New Listings to New Contracts Trend Remains Steady

For the first three weeks of May there were 2,115 new listings of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-county core market, according to the STL Real Estate Trends Report from MORE, REALTORS®.  During the same period, there were 2,019 new contracts written on homes for sale resulting in a new listing to new contract ratio of 1.05.  This is pretty consistent with the recent trend with new listings slightly outpacing new sales.  As the tables at the bottom show, for April there were 3,470 new listings and 3,269 new contracts written for a new listing to new contract ratio of 1.06.

St Louis Home Sales Doing Well In Spite of Rising Interest Rates & Inflation

There have been a lot of reports over the past month about rising interest rates (mortgage rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 5.27% last week) as well as rising inflation rates (8.5% in March) and the effect these things will have on the housing market.  It’s no doubt they will have some affect on home prices and sales and I have been watching the data on St Louis home prices and sales closely and so far there does not appear to be much impact.

St Louis home sales increase in April from March…

There are two ways we analyze home sales at MORE, REALTORS®;  the traditional manner, which is what almost all public reports are based upon, closed sales (which are really indicative of what the market was like 1-2 months previously since that is when the contracts were typically written) and then by use of our STL Real Estate Trends Report, which gives us a better idea of the current activity.  Our trends report shows the number of new contracts written on listings, so current sales activity as well as the number of new listings entering the market.  The good news is, when looking at St Louis home sales activity for April, both closed sales and newly written contracts increased from the month before.

As our chart below shows, there were 2,134 homes sold in St Louis (5-county core market) during April, a 6.4% increase from March when there were 2,005 homes sold.  As the STL Real Estate Trends Report shows, there were 3,279 new contracts written on homes during April in the St Louis 5-county core market, an increase of 5% from the prior month when there were 3,124 contracts written.

New Sales Last Week Declined Over Thirty Percent From The Week Before

Last week there were 551 new contracts written for the sale of listings in the St Louis 5-county core market down over thirty-six percent (31.3%) from the week before when there were 802 new contracts written, according to the STL Real Estate Trends Report, exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®.  The new sales activity last week was down even more (nearly 36%) from the same week a year ago when there were 851 new contracts written on listings.   There is no doubt this is the result of mortgage interest rates which have nearly doubled in the last 15 months.

New listings on the other hand increased last week to 851 from 618 the week before.  The new listing activity is pretty much in line with the same week a year ago when there were 858 new listings.  If this trend continues the listing supply will likely increase significantly.  Given that the for the 5-county core market its been under 1 month for a long time, it can afford to increase some.

The current week will be very telling.  When we see data next week from this week, if the numbers are similar to what we saw last week, it’s a likely indicator of a market shift to some extent.  Time will tell..

New Sales Of Listings Continue To Outpace New Listings

Even with the high rate of inflation, rising interest rates and general unrest in the economy, during the past two weeks there were more new contracts written on listings than there were new listings.  According to the STL Real Estate Trends Report, exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®,  during the last two weeks there were 1,496 new contracts accepted on listings in the St Louis 5-County core market while there were 1,432 new listings during the same period.   While there were only 4.5% more sales than listings, given the fact we are already in a low-inventory market, this is fairly significant.

STL Real Estate Trends Report

(click on report for current report)

STL Real Estate Trends Report STL Real Estate Trends Report

 

How Much Will St Louis Home Prices Be Impacted By Inflation?

Yesterday, I wrote an article addressing the high rate of inflation just reported and its impact on the St Louis housing market. In it, I promised to take a deeper look into the effect of the current events related to the economy on St Louis home prices which I will do in this article.

Before I go further, I should mention I’m not an economist nor a fortune teller.  I am, however, a real estate broker and data nerd that has spent over 40 years in the St Louis real estate industry.  I try my best to use my knowledge and experience to anticipate changes in the market and use this to help our agents and clients use this information to their advantage.

History always repeats itself..

I find the above old adage to be pretty accurate when it comes to the real estate market.  Therefore, in trying to get my head around what impact a high inflation rate may have on home prices, I started by going back to prior periods of high inflation rates.

The first chart below shows the rate of inflation, interest rates, and the St Louis home price index.  I’ve made some notes on it to show prior inflationary periods and the effect on home prices. The first period, the early 80s was much worse than today as inflation was higher and interest rates were in the stratosphere hitting 18%.  The more recent period around 2007-2009 was not as severe and therefore the impact on home prices was not as dramatic as the former either.  As you can see on the far right side of the chart, home prices have increased in the past several months at a sharp rate with the change from a year ago being greater than the last inflationary period but not as great as the one from the early ’80s.

The next chart shows the relationship between home prices and rent.  When home prices outpace rent, home prices decline, when rent outpaces home prices, prices rise.  As the chart shows, these two lines have converged indicating a reasonable balance between home prices and rent.

During the period of 2007 – 2011 home prices fell over 17% during a four year period before finally bottoming out.

Today is different though…

Home Remodeling Projects That Bring You The Best Return On The Cost

Some remodeling projects are done by homeowners that plan to stay in their homes for the foreseeable future and want to get the most enjoyment and functionality out of living there.  These homeowners typically aren’t as concerned, if at all, with getting a monetary return on their investment as their return is the enjoyment of the improvements.  However, other homeowners, particularly those that may only be in their homes a couple of years or so before their next move, tend to focus more on making sure the remodeling they do will bring them a return on their investment to make it worthwhile.  Granted, the return may be less than the cost but, after factoring in the enjoyment from the improvement the improvement may be worth it.

What are the remodeling projects that bring the best returns?  

National Association of REALTORS® 2022 Remodeling Impact ReportAccording to the National Association of REALTORS® 2022 Remodeling Impact Report, below is the cost recovery of the top interior and exterior remodeling projects:

  • Interior
    • Hardwood flooring refinish- Return on cost – 147%
    • New wood flooring – Return on cost – 118%
    • Insulation upgrade – Return on cost – 100%
  • Exterior
    • Roofing – Return on cost – 100%
    • Garage door- Return on cost – 100%

See the complete report (you can download a copy as well) by clicking the photo or HERE.

 

St Louis Home Sales Trend Declining

The home sales trend in St Louis is easing with 29,778 homes being sold in the St Louis 5-county core market during the 12-month period ended December 31, 2021, according to the chart below provided by MORE, REALTORS®.  This 12-month rate of St Louis home sales has declined for the 3rd month in a row after peaking at 30,225 homes sold in the 12-month period ended September 30, 2021.

Leading indicator Reports Show a Downturn in Home Sales as well…

The STL Real Estate Trends Report, below the chart, shows new contracts written on listings for the most recent week reported, compared with the same week last year.  As the report shows, contracts written during the most recent week were down 23% from the same week a year ago, with all 5 counties reported showing a double digit decline.  Franklin County saw the biggest drop at 34% followed by St Louis City witha. 31% decline.

St Louis Home Sales in 2021 Tops Year Before By Nearly 4 Percent – Prices Up Over 9 Percent

As the STL Market Report (available exclusively from MORE, REATLORS®) below illustrates, there were 30,197 homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market during 2021, an increase of 3.86% from 2020 when there were 29,075 homes sold.  The median sales price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market was $250,000 during 2021, an increase of 9.17% from 2020 when the median price of homes sold in St Louis was $229,000.  The 5-county core St Louis market is comprised of the city and county of St Louis, along with the counties of Jefferson, Franklin, and St Charles. The St Louis core market is responsible for over 7y0% of all homes sold in the 17-county St Louis MSA market.

Housing inventory remains low…

As the last row of the report shows, there is still just a 0.6 month supply of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-county core market and the median time on the market is 64 days.

Inflation Has Largest One-Year Increase In Over 39 Years – Will Home Prices Suffer?

As you’ve probably heard by now, the most recent inflation news was not good.  As the chart below illustrates, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all products in the U.S. (city average) for November 2021 was 303.4, an increase of 6.88% from a year ago when it was 284.1.  This is the highest 12-month increase in inflation we have seen in over 39 years, since June 1982.

What effect will this record-setting increase in inflation have on home prices?

The second chart below depicts the percentage change in the inflation rate from a year ago (the blue line)  as well as the percentage change in the St Louis home price index from a year ago (the red line).  As you look at the chart and reference the marked-up one I have below it, you will see a pattern.  Historically, when inflation rates increase significantly and consistently from a year ago, lower home prices follow.   Will this happen this time as well?  It’s hard to say right now as we still have an incredibly low supply of homes on the market, which tends to fuel higher prices, and we’ll need to see if the rise in inflation is sustained over the next few months.  For the time being, I’ll make the prediction that in 2022 we will see, at a minimum, a flattening of home prices…so maybe not a decline, but a pause on the rate of increase.  Time will tell.

  

St Louis Home Price Appreciation Slowing

Even though you wouldn’t know it by today’s forecasted high in St Louis of 50 degrees, we are entering the winter housing market.  Every year, year after year, the St Louis winter housing market reacts pretty much the same way with home prices dropping a little and sales slowing followed by an uptick in both come spring.  With that in mind, the declines we see in home prices in the chart and report below, available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®, could be attributed to the seasonal change but are a little early for that, and different than last year.

Sold home price per square foot declined for 2nd month in a row in November…

The price per foot a home sells for is a relatively accurate indicator of rising home prices and typically will decline in the winter months as I mentioned above.  However, if you look at the chart below, you will see the red line, which depicts the sold price per square foot of homes sold in the St Louis area, peaked in June at $172/foot, then dropped in July to $171/foot where it stayed though September before dropping to $165 in October and then remaining there in November.  The result was a 4.0% decline in the price per foot of homes sold in St Louis from the peak in June to October.

If you look at the same period last year, you will see the price per foot peaked in July at $152 than stayed at $152 until dropping to $151 in October, then up to $153 in November and back to $152 in December. So, least year, the change from the peak to November was actually a slight increase compared with this year’s decrease of 4.%.

I’m not saying last years price behavior was the norm, I’m just pointing out that this years price activity is different than last year so it may be indicative of a change in the market.

Current listing prices reflect slower price appreciation…

Below the chart is the STL Market Report for November which shows home sales in the St Louis 5-county core market were up nearly 6% for the 12-month period ended November 30th from a. year ago and prices were up over 10% during the same period.  However, if you look down to the second row of the report, you will see the price per foot homes sold at during the most recent 12-month period were sold at a price of $164.70 per foot (and in November as well) and the price per foot of homes currently listed is $168, so an increase of about 2% from the median price in the past 12-months. Granted, many of the current listings will likely sell for more than asking price, but this trend still indicates St Louis home price appreciation is slowing.

St Louis New Contracts On Listings Outpacing New Listings But By 15 Percent Less Than Last Year

New sales of listings (an accepted offer) in St Louis in November are outpacing new listings with 1.06 new sales for every 1 new listing.  As the leading indicator reports below illustrate (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®), for the first 3 weeks in November, there have been 2,139 new sales of listings and 2,026 new listings.  At the same time a year ago, new sales outpaced new listings at 1.24 to 1, so the current trend is down 15%.

Worth noting in the data is that new sales of St Louis homes in the first three weeks of November 2021 are up 4.5% from the same period a year ago, new listings for the same period this year are up 23% from a year ago.  This is a trend worth watching and if it continues, could help with the low inventory problem that has made the St Louis real estate market a brutal market for home buyers for the past couple of years.

St Louis Beating Region On Percentage Of Homes Selling At Full Price Or Above

Last week I published an infographic in an article illustrating that 65% of the homes sold in St Louis sold at or above the list price.  As the infographic below shows, this is a significantly higher percentage than was experienced in the midwest region as a whole where 55% of the homes sold at or above full price.  

YTD St Louis Home Sales Through October Up Over 5% From Last Year

In spite of the challenges of a low-inventory market as well as the threat of inflationary pressure on the economy, St Louis home sales still remain strong.  As the infographic below shows (exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®) year-to-date home sales through October of this year are outpacing last year by over 5% and the prior 3 years as well by an even larger margin!

The House Payment on a Typical St Louis Home has increased just over 5% in 14 years

Anyone paying even a little attention to the St Louis real estate market will likely be aware of the fact that we have been in a strong seller’s market for the past couple of years and St Louis home prices, as a result, have increased significantly.  In fact, as the infographic below shows (exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®) the median home price for a St Louis home has increased more than 50% in the past 14 years.  However, the good news is that during that same period mortgage interest rates have fallen and remained low resulting an increase in the house payment on a typical home increase just over 5% during the same period!

Over 40% Of The Luxury Homes Sold In St Louis In October Sold At or Above List Price

Yesterday, I shared data showing that two-thirds of the homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market (St Louis city and the counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson, and Franklin) during October sold for the asking price or above.   Today, I wanted to focus on just the luxury home market to see how that compared with the overall market.  I included homes that sold for $750,000 or higher in this analysis.

As the infographic below shows (exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®) there were 107 luxury homes sold (3.7% of all homes sold) during October in the St Louis 5-County core market with 41% of them selling at the list price or above.  Drilling down further, we see that 28% of the St Louis Luxury homes sold for greater than the list price.