Two-thirds of the homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market (St Louis city and the counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson, and Franklin) during October sold for the asking price or above. As the infographic below shows (exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®) there were 2,888 homes sold during October in the St Louis 5-County core market with 65% of them selling at the list price or above. One thing to remember about home prices though, and something you won’t hear from too many people reporting prices, is that not all sold prices are the “real” price.
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For the past few years now, we’ve experienced quite the seller’s market in St Louis fueled, in part, by a low supply of homes for sale. As a result, St Louis home prices have increased over the past few years at rates close to double the historic norm. Of late, we’ve heard a lot from people within, and outside of, the real estate industry expressing concern that home prices have gotten too high and even some have made comparisons to 2008 when the housing market saw the bubble burst. Being the data nerd I am, I’ve tried to keep emotion out of it and instead turn to the data to see if there were indications that perhaps St Louis home prices have increased too much and we are in for a correction. Up until now, the data has led me to believe that St Louis home prices were ok and can be sustained. However, based upon current data, I have a little different opinion as I write this. So what has changed in the data to indicate home prices are too high? For starters, I haven’t said St Louis home prices are too high yet, I’ve just said that the current data has changed my opinion. Having said that, prices may in fact reached levels that cannot be sustained and may need a downward correction to put them back in line or they may have just peaked and will remain rather flat for a period of time to allow the market to “catch up” with the prices. And, of course, data over the next month or two could change for the positive and show we’re not there yet and home prices can still go higher without a problem. For now, I’m going to say that, based upon the data as well as the normal seasonal adjustments we see this time of year, I’m going to expect to see St Louis home prices to decline somewhat during the winter months like normal, but then perhaps remain relatively flat come spring rather than increase in the spring like normal. My opinion is based upon several pieces of data that, collectively, are indicating a coming adjustment in home prices to me. I have the charts below that illustrate this point and here’s my recap on them: I’ve written a couple of articles lately addressing the news reports about the housing market cooling down. As I’ve addressed in those articles, there has not really been much data supporting a significant cooling in the St Louis real estate market. Additionally, I’ve noted that, due to the seasonality of the housing market, and the fact we are headed toward winter, a cooling of the market would be the seasonal norm. So today, I decided to pick an easier question to answer, “has the St Louis real estate market peaked?” The short answer is yes, I believe it has. This statement, by itself, is not all bad as it would NOT be good for St Louis home prices to continue to increase at the rates they have over the past couple of years. Not to mention, if we stay in this low-inventory market strongly favoring sellers much longer, many buyers are going to just give up and shelf the idea of buying for a while. As usual, I’ll let the data speak for itself. I have several charts and tables below (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) that I believe support that we have probably seen the St Louis market peak. The St Louis housing market appears to be cooling off slightly with fewer home sales last month than a year ago in 3 of the 5 St Louis area counties that make up the St Louis 5-county core real estate market. As the charts below illustrate, the decline in the overall St Louis market was very slight, with 3,164 homes sold last month just 11 sales fewer than September last year when there were 3,715 homes sold in the St Louis5-county core market. The charts have complete details but below is a recap of home sales and prices by county for last month versus September 2020:
More and more today I’m seeing reports in the media about the housing market cooling down and sales slowing which, quite frankly, I have expected and keep watching for signs of it in the St Louis real estate market. However, in spite of a few blips on the radar, all the data I’m reviewing still shows pretty steady and consistent home sales in St Louis. Don’t get me wrong, I fully expect us to see a cooling of the St Louis market if for no other reason, winter will be here soon and then we’ll be headed toward year-end when the market always cools down. There are many factors that could come into play to further impact the market such as higher interest rates, a weaker economy as well as an influx of foreclosed homes hitting the market in the month ahead. For all of this, we will have to wait and see, but for now, things are pretty steady. Below are some charts and data that I feel support my thoughts on the market. St Louis 5-County Core Market – Home Sales Trend(click on chart for live, interactive chart)
As the chart above illustrates, the time it takes for a home to sell (days on market, represented by the brown line at the bottom) has been consistent the last four months, ranging from a low of 6 days to a high of 8 days. The green line shows the 12-month home sales trend and it has been fairly consistent the last 4 months as well, actually increasing in June, then dipping slightly in July only to rise again in August to nearly June’s level. Finally, the red line shows the median price per foot of the homes sold and that has also been consistent the last 4 months with a slight increase from $167/foot in May to $170 in June and then $171 in July and August. St Louis Real Estate Trends ReportNew Listings & New Sales (click on report for live report)
The above reports show that in the most recent week new contracts written for the sale of homes increased 29% from the week before and new listings increased 3% from the week before. During the week there were just about the same number of new listings as new sales at 764 and 767 respectively. St Louis Area Supply of Listing Inventory(click on report for live report)
The report above shows there is currently a 0.89 month supply of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-County market. This is only slightly higher than it has been in past months. Of the 5-counties in the core market, St Charles County has the lowest inventory of homes for sale with an inventory of just over half a month. In June of this year the Median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market was $266,000, 6.4% higher than the median list price of $250,000 for those homes sold. This breaks the record of 4.4% set in April and is the highest gap we’ve seen between the median sold price and listing price since we’ve been tracking it, In July the gap narrowed though, albeit slightly, with the median price of homes sold coming in at $265,000, 6.0% higher than the median list price of $250,000. Worth noting as well is between June and July, the median list price of homes in the St Louis 5-County core market stayed the same and the median sold price decreased 0.3%.. St Louis 5-County Core – Sold Price to List Price – July 2020 – July 2021 Chart(Click on Chart for Live Chart with current data) What an interesting real estate market we’ve experienced in St Louis over the past few years! Seller’s fully expect their homes to sell the first weekend after hitting the market, with a feeding frenzy by buyer’s and bidding wars that drive the price above the list price. Buyer’s come to realize if they are going to be successful in buying a home they have to think fast, take chances and move quick! Heck, with a market like this, it’s no wonder a lot of folks, particularly sellers, don’t necessarily see a need for a real estate agent. However, the reality is that sellers and buyers need a great agent now more than ever. Yes, I emphasized great as, like in any profession, there are varying levels of knowledge, experience and professionalism among real estate agents. In addition to having a great agent that agent needs timely, accurate market data, along with an understanding of the market resulting in complete market knowledge. Unfortunately, this combination is not easy to find. So what’s the actual price, $270,000 or $250,000? As the chart below illustrates (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®), homes in St Charles County sold for a median price equal to nearly 105% of the current list price of the listing in June, which is the highest percentage of list price for the counties that make up the St Louis 5-county core market. For the 9 months up to and including January of this year, 4 of the 5 counties all had a median sold price equal to 100% of the current list price with Franklin County averaging less. In January St Charles county took off followed by Jefferson County, St Louis County and St Louis City all of which saw the median sold price exceed 100% of the current list price. Franklin County made it up to 100% but has stayed there. St Louis Area Counties $ Of Current List Price Homes Sold For During Past 13 Months(click on chart for live, interactive chart)
In April of this year the Median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market was $250,000, 4.4% higher than the median list price of $239,450 for those homes sold. This is the highest gap we’ve seen between the median sold price and listing price since we’ve been tracking it. Last month the gap narrowed though with the median price of homes sold in May coming in at $258,000, 3.2% higher than the median list price of $249,900. Worth noting as well is between April and May, the median list price of homes in the St Louis 5-County core market increased 4.4% and the median sold price increased 3.2%. St Louis 5-County Core Sold Price to List Price Chart(click on chart for live chart) For the 12-month period ended May 31, 2021, there were 30,225 homes sold within the St Louis 5-County core market, an increase in home sales of 13.91% from the prior 12-month period, according to the STL Market Report below, available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®. During the same period, St Louis home prices increased 11.5% from a median of $213,000 to $237,500. As the report also shows, the current supply of listings for sale is low at 0.86 months. STL Market Report For the St Louis 5-County Core Market(click on report for live, complete report)
Last week I shared data showing that nearly two-thirds of the homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market (St Louis city and the counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin) during the past 12 months sold for the asking price or above. Today, I wanted to focus on just the luxury home market to see how that compared with the overall market. I included homes that sold for $750,000 or higher in this analysis. As the infographic below shows (exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®) there were 1,120 luxury homes sold (about 3% of all homes sold) during the past 12-months in the St Louis 5-County core market with 38% of them selling at the list price or above. Drilling down further, we see that 22% of the St Louis Luxury homes sold for greater than the list price. It’s no secret how competitive the St Louis housing market is currently. In effort to get their offer accepted, homebuyers are waiving financing contingencies, building inspections and doing everything they can to convince the seller to take their offer. However, in addition to those aforementioned things, while it’s not necessarily the most important thing, price is pretty close to the top of the list. As a result of everything mentioned above, almost two-thirds of the homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market (St Louis city and the counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin) during the past 12 months sold for the asking price or above. As the infographic below shows (exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®) there were 34,225 homes sold during the past 12-months in the St Louis 5-County core market with 63% of them selling at the list price or above. One thing to remember about home prices though, and something you won’t hear from too many people reporting prices, is that not all sold prices are the “real” price. Every month Fannie Mae surveys consumers about owning and renting a home as well as about other issues related to the housing market and economy and from the results publish their Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI). One of the components of the index is what the sentiment is on whether now is a good time to buy a home or sell a home. In the April 2021 HPSI 49% of consumers felt home prices would go up in the next 12-months and 54% felt interest rates would increase in the next 12-months. In spite of the challenge of a low-inventory housing market, St Louis City and County, St Charles County and Franklin County all saw double-digit increases in the number of homes sold in April while Jefferson County saw a double digit decline. As the charts below illustrate, the median price of homes sold in those counties increased from a year ago in all the counties, two of them in the double digits. Not all housing data is the same….nor accurate for that matter… One thing worth noting is that there are housing market reports out there from many different sources, including many credible ones that may or may not be accurate. In most cases this is not due to an error on the part of the person or entity sharing the data but a result of either bad data, inaccurate data or misinterpreted data. For example, when preparing to write this article I noticed two different reports on “St Louis” home prices for homes sold in April. One, which indicated it was for St Louis City and County combined, reported $250,000 and one which reported the “St Louis area” was $266,000. In the case of the latter, my first guess was that they were reporting data for the St Louis MSA but when I checked that the actual sold price in April was only $223,750 so I have no idea where the data came from. For the former, the $250,000 median price is not only higher than the median price for St Louis City and County, it’s higher than the median price for the whole MSA and while the source is indicated, I’m not sure how this number was arrived at. So what does it matter? In the crazy market we are in where buyers are getting in bidding wars to get a home, I think it’s more important than ever to have good, relevant and accurate data available to your agent so your agent can help you make an informed decision. You ultimately may decide to pay above what you think the current value of the home is but it would help to know what the real value is. If you look at my chart below for St Louis City and County you’ll see the median price of homes sold in April was $230,000 which is quite different than the $250,000 price and $266,000 I saw reported elsewhere. Would being $20,000 – $36,000 off on the value matter to you? I think it might. So how do I know I’m right? Well, for starters I’m a data junky and for the past dozen or so years I’ve probably spent, on average about a dozen hours a week or more studying market data for St Louis. In addition, for the past 6 or 7 years we have worked to develop our own proprietary software to compile and report housing data and are constantly checking and double checking the output. Finally, we have a very credible source for data, the REALTOR® MLS and we constantly update and check the data. Put all of this together and while there’s no way to say it’s 100% correct, but I’m confident it’s about as close as you can get. There are a total of seventeen counties that make up the St Louis MSA with 9 of them being on the Missouri side of the Mississippi River and the other 8 on the Illinois side. For some reason, I was curious today if the portion of the St Louis MSA in one state was outperforming the other or if they were performing about the same. I guess my expectation was probably the latter but the data showed that in fact, during the past three months, they were closed, but each state has its bragging rights depending on which data point you look at. The tables and charts below (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) show more details but below are some highlights of the comparisons between the counties in the two states:
As the chart below shows, the median price of homes sold in St Louis City and County jumped to $220,000 last month from $204,000 the month before. While home prices increased during the month, the number of homes sold fell slightly to 1,027 homes in the two-county area, down from 1,085 the month before. As the table below the chart shows, there have been nearly 18,000 homes sold during the past 12 months in the City and County of St Louis at a median sold price of $220,580. The homes sold during the past 12 months sold for a median price of 100% of the original asking price and took a median time of just 20 days to sell. Can you say Seller’s Market? :) St Louis City and County Home Prices and Sales(click on chart for live chart)
The St Louis real estate market has started off 2021 strong, but is a change coming? Closings of home sales in January were strong with more sales closing than in January of last year, but with everything going and the uncertainty of the economy will it continue? I address both the current state of the St Louis real estate market, as well as discuss our “leading indicator” data which gives us a glimpse of where the market is headed in the St Louis Real Estate Market Update video you can access below.
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".) 
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com It probably won’t come as a surprise that many of St Louis’ best school districts also have some of St Louis’ most expensive home prices. As the list below shows, the Ladue School district has the highest-priced homes with the average price for homes sold in the past 12 months at nearly $900,000. Of the top 10 highest priced school districts, 8 are in St Louis County, one in St Charles County and one in Franklin County. St Louis 5-County Core’s Most Expensive School Districts(click on list for complete list)
One of the benefits to living in St Louis we often hear about is how affordable it is compared with many other metro areas around the country. Granted, one of the things that contribute to the “affordability” is the price of homes but that doesn’t mean we don’t have areas with pricey real estate here. The list below is part of the list showing what the average price homes sold for in every municipality in the St Louis MSA during the past 12 months and reveals the five municipalities where the average home price exceeded $1 Million. Leading the list is the relatively small, but expensive, Country Life Acres where homes in the past 12 months sold for an average of $1,621.564. St Louis 5-County CORE Market’s Most Expensive Municipalities(click on list to see entire current list)
Yesterday, I reported that St Louis area home sales and prices were both up about 8% during 2020 from 2019 so today we’ll take a look at how condominium sales and prices compared during the same period. As the STL Market Report shows (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®), in the 5-County Core St Louis market there were 3,567 condominiums sold during 2020, 10 condominiums less than the 3,577 condominiums sold during 2019. The median price of condos sold in 2020 in this St Louis market was $163,900, an increase of 5.74% from 2019 when the median price was $155,000. The current price trend, as depicted in the report, is up significantly with the median price per square foot of condos that are currently on the market being over 23% higher than the median price per foot of condominiums sold during 2020. There are currently 417 condos for sale in the St Louis 5-County Core market, representing a 1.30 month supply at the current sales rates. STL Market Report for the St Louis 5-County Core Market Condos(Non-distressed condo sales only – click on report for live report)
In spite of the challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic, stay at home orders, a shaky economy and a fair amount of social unrest, 2020 still managed to be a good year for residential real estate! As the STL Market Report shows (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®), in the 5-County Core St Louis market there were 28,131 homes sold during 2020, an increase of 8.27% from 2019 when there were just 25,982 homes sold. The median price of homes sold in 2020 in this St Louis market was $232,000, an increase of 7.93% from 2019 when the median price was $214,950. The current price trend, as depicted in the report, is up as well with the median price per square foot of homes that are currently on the market being over 9% higher than the median price per foot of homes sold during 2020. There are currently 2,031 active listings on the market representing a 0.81 month supply at the current sales rates. STL Market Report for the St Louis 5-County Core Market(Non-distressed home sales only – click on report for live report)
As the STL Market ReportTM below shows, there were 3,419 existing condominiums sold in the 12-month period ended November 30, 2020, a decrease of 0.23% from the prior 12-month period. The median price of condos sold during the past 12-months was $159,900, an increase of 5.2% from the prior 12-month period. To make sure the data represents the market as accurately as possible, distressed home sales and new construction were excluded from the data. As the report shows, the current inventory of condos for sale is just 1.2 months. STL Market Report – St Louis 5-County Area – CondosAvailable Exclusively From MORE, REALTORS Click on the report to get the current report
As the STL Market ReportTM below shows, there were 26,675 existing homes sold in the 12-month period ended November 30, 2020, an increase of 7.13% from the prior 12-month period. The median price of homes sold during the past 12-months was $225,580, an increase of 7.42% from the prior 12-month period. To make sure the data represents the market as accurately as possible, distressed home sales and new construction were excluded from the data. The increase in home sales is almost hard to imagine given how low the inventory of homes for sale has been. As the report shows, the current inventory of homes for sale is just 3/4 of one-month. STL Market Report – St Louis 5-County AreaAvailable Exclusively From MORE, REALTORS Click on the report to get the current report
Not only has it become common today for homes to sell as soon as they hit the market but receiving offers from multiple buyers and at prices that equal or even exceed the asking price is common as well. While this is an illustration of Economics 101, the rule and supply and demand, when the demand exceeds the supply (such as in the housing market in many price ranges and areas), prices increase this can also be a reminder of times past when home prices rose quickly for several years, then retreated rather abruptly. The most recent example of this, and arguably the worst during my 40 years in the real estate business, was the housing bubble that burst in 2008 sending home prices into a downward trend that lasted about 3 years. So, are we headed to another housing bubble? My focus is primarily on the St Louis housing market so I will focus on that but I will point out what I see with regard home prices, St Louis has a better outlook than at the national level. The St Louis real estate market slowed when the effects of COVID-19 hit the St Louis area in early March but after continuing at a slower pace for a few weeks has quickly shifted gears to a faster pace. The St Louis market has improved to the point that, for the 12-month period ended May 31, 2020, St Louis home sales were down just 1.84% from the prior 12-month period. The median price of homes sold during the past 12-months was $213,000, an increase of 6.55% from the prior period. St Louis 5-County Core Market Home Sales and PricesPast 12 Months vs Year Ago(click on the table below for live report)
The St Louis real estate market continues to be on the upswing and recovering from the impact of COVID-19. The pandemic did slow the St Louis real estate market down for a while but it appears to be recovering quite quickly. Get all of this and more in this month’s update.
Interest rates, the “cherry on top”. In case the market rebound isn’t enough, mortgage interest rates are at near historic lows making now a great time, and an affordable time, to buy a house if you are in a position to do so.
Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Prior to COVID-19, there had already been a shortage of residential listings for sale in many areas and price ranges through St Louis going back a couple of years. However, the problem may be getting worse as we are continuing to see new sales of residential listings in St Louis picking up the pace to the point that they are down just 16% from the same time a year ago but, new listings in the St Louis MSA are down 30% from the same time a year ago. Since we started with a low inventory and now have the sales rate outpacing the listing rate, we are probably going to see an even tighter supply of homes for sale for at least the near future. As our table below shows, there are some areas where this is even more pronounced, such as St Charles County where the number of new sales of residential listings for the most recent 7-day period is down just 3% from a year ago but new listings during the same period are down 37%. St Charles County down to less than 2-month supply As our tables at the bottom shows, currently, there is just a 1.97 month supply of homes for sale in St Charles County and, if we look at the “sweet-spot” of homes priced in the $150,000 – $300,000 range, there is an inventory of just 1.04 months. If you own a home in St Charles County and have thought about selling, contact us now and let us show you how to leverage this market in your favor whileit lasts. The St Louis real estate market is off to a good start for 2020 however, it is getting impacted by COVID-19. This month’s market update video includes market data through the end of March but, even though about 2/3 of March was after COVID-19 began disrupting things here, the effects really cannot be seen yet. A couple of weeks ago I did a Special Report video that was specifically about the impact of coronavirus on the St Louis real estate market, but it won’t be until our May market report that we really see the full impact of it on the market.
Rates are back down after a brief stint on the rise. The mortgage market is a little volatile now given all that is going on but, so far, so good.
In our MORE, REALTORS, 5 Minute St Louis Real Estate Market Update video below, you can quickly and easily get the latest information on home prices, home sales, trends and more for the entire St Louis area! Thinking of selling and want to know if your neighborhood is a seller's market? Contact us and we'll answer that question for you.You can now subscribe to our ITUNES Podcast Channel to receive our updated market videos via podcast automatically each week! Just click here, then click on "Subscribe Free".)
Sell Your Home For The Highest Price In The Least Amount of Time! See how- STLSellersAdvantage.com Homes became more affordable in Jefferson County and St Charles County during the first quarter of this year from the 4th quarter of 2019, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Research. As the table below shows, the affordability index for both those counties increased from the prior quarter as well as from the same quarter the prior year. Franklin County’s affordability index was the same for the 1st quarter of 2020 as the prior quarter but improved by 5% from a year ago. The two St Louis’s, the city and county, both saw decline in home affordability from both the prior quarter as well as the prior year. Average wage earner can qualify to buy in 3 out of 5 Counties… So while the city and county of St Louis saw a decline in home affordability, the average wage eaarner in those two areas can qualify to buy a home, as can an average wage earner in Franklin County. St Louis Home Affordability – 1st Quarter 2020
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