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The St Louis real estate market trends remain steady and consistent! The St Louis home sales and price trends give me an optimistic outlook for next year. Low-interest rates continue to offset some of the cost of the increases in home prices that have occurred. Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
Thanks to a strong economy and low-interest rates, the actual cost of a home today in St Louis is lower than it was a year ago, in spite of the fact that the median price of homes sold in St Louis has increased by 5.64% in the past year. Most people buying a typical home in St Louis finance nearly all of the purchase price, therefore, the cost of financing plays a significant role in the true cost of a home. Buyers decide what they can afford (as do lenders) based upon the house payment, not the price of the home. The cost of a home today in St Louis versus a year ago… As our STL Market Chart below shows, the median price of a home sold in the St Louis 5-County core market in October of this year was $200,000, 5.3% higher than last October when the median price of homes sold was $189,900. However, as our mortgage interest rate chart below shows, the rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is currently 3.78%, over a full percentage point less than October 2018 when the rate was 4.83%. If we do a little math and use our mortgage payment calculator, we find that if someone bought a median-priced home in St Louis in October of 2018 at $189,900 and financed 100% of the purchase at the current rate at the time (4.83%), their payment would have been $1,027 per month. If a person were to buy a median-priced home in St Louis today at $200,000 and finance 100% of the purchase at the current rate of 3.78%, their payment would be $958. So, even though the price of the home increased over 5%, the payment on the home (at current prices) actually dropped by 7.2% showing just how much impact interest rates have on the cost of a home. What are buyers waiting for? We are entering the “slow season” for real estate, winter, a time when, year after year, home prices typically decrease until hitting a low around January and then start to increase as the weather warms. Therefore, we are in the period when home prices will be the lowest they will be for the year, interest rates are near the lowest they have been, so, if I were considering buying a home, I would jump into action as I just don’t see how it’s going to get better than this anytime soon. Continue reading “Actual “Cost” Of St Louis Home Today Over 7 Percent Lower Than Year Ago“ The median price of homes sold in St Charles County during the past 12-months was $243,900, an increase of 6.09% from the prior 12-month period when the median price was $229,900. As the STL Market Report (an exclusive report available only from MORE, REALTORS®) shows, home sales declined over 5 percent during the same period and the inventory remains low with a listing supply of just 2.37 months. As the STL Market Chart at the bottom illustrates (also exclusively available only from MORE, REALTORS®), home prices in St Charles County have had the normal, seasonal, fluctuations but have been steadily trending upward over the past five years. Home prices peaked in August of this year at $257,500 and have been slipping into the normal “winter lull” and will continue to slide until around January or February when they typically bottom out. Last year, home prices peaked in June then fell 4.2% by September and this year, even though home prices peaked just last month, have fallen over 5% already since. I expect home prices in St Charles County will see some correction going forward and anticipate less of a spike in home prices come spring than we saw last year. Last year, in St Charles County, prices increased by nearly 14% in the 4-month period from the seasonal low in February to the peak in June. [xyz-ips snippet=”St-Charles-County-For-Sale-and-Open-Houses”] The median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core Market during the past 12-months was $205,000, an increase of 5.13% from the prior 12-month period when the median price was $195,000. As the STL Market Report (an exclusive report available only from MORE, REALTORS®) shows, home sales declined nearly 3 percent during the same period and the inventory remains low with a listing supply of just 2.53 months. As the STL Market Chart at the bottom illustrates (also exclusively available only from MORE, REALTORS®), home prices in the St Louis 5-County Core Market have had the normal, seasonal, fluctuations but have been steadily trending upward over the past five years. Home prices peaked in June of this year at $230,000 and have been slipping into the normal “winter lull” and will continue to slide until around January or February when they typically bottom out. Last year we saw the same pattern with home prices peaking in June however last year from June to September home prices fell 9.33% and this year they fell 10.87%. This could perhaps be indicative of a little market correction coming with regard to home prices. Continue reading “St Louis Area Home Price Appreciation Tops 5 Percent In Past Year“ The St Louis real estate market is slowing down somewhat as it does every year around this time, but the market still looks good. Low-interest rates continue to offset some of the cost of the increases in home prices that have occurred. Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
[xyz-ips snippet=”Market-Update-Video–Inline-Link”] [xyz-ips snippet=”Market-Update-Video-Package”] [xyz-ips snippet=”Seller-Resources—Listing-Targeted”] St Louis is the top marketing for flipping homes, according to an article published yesterday on Realtor.com. It’s not all just flipping activity however in the article a very notable and credible St Louis industry source (unabashed self-promotion) stated that “flipping is more common in homes in the $175,000-plus range, while many of those listed for $125,000 and less are being turned into rentals, says Norman.” The Realtor.com article gave an overview of the market data I produced for them so I wanted to share the market data behind the overview. St Louis Neighborhoods With Large Investor Presence:
Home Prices In St Louis’ Active Investor Markets: Continue reading “St Louis Is Number One Market For Flipping Homes“ Home sales in the St Louis 5-County Core Market for the 12-month period ended September 30th, 2019 were down just over 3% from the same period a year ago. During the same period, home prices in the St Louis 5-County Core market increased a little over 5% as the report below from MORE, REALTORS shows. Inventory of homes for sale still favors sellers… As the report shows, there is just a 2.44 month supply of homes for sale in the St Louis core market which means the St Louis market is still very much a seller’s market. Continue reading “St Louis Home Sales Continue Downward Trend“ One story homes, often referred to as “ranch-style”, have always been popular, especially with ageing home buyers that don’t want stairs. With a large number of baby boomers that have become empty nesters, many of them are downsizing and one-story homes are often their style of choice as well. Whether this demand is the reason or not, one-story homes in St Charles County have outpaced 2-story homes in terms of home price appreciation over the past 10-years. As the charts below show, one-story homes in St Charles County show, have increased in price from a median sold price of $116 per sqft. 10 years ago to $156 per sqft today, an increase of 34.5% during the period. As the second chart below shows, 2-story homes during the same period increased from $94 per sqft. to $124 per sqft, an increase of 32.0%. In terms of the median price homes sold for, there was an even bigger gap between 1-story and 2-story homes. One-story homes increased in price from $164,5000 to $229,000, an increase of 39.2% and 2-story homes from $210,000 t $275,000, an increase of 31.0%. [xyz-ips snippet=”St-Charles-County-For-Sale-and-Open-Houses”] The question in my headline is one of those questions that in the real estate community, and with most homeowners, would elicit a response something like “the quality of the school district has a major impact on the housing market, duh!”. While I don’t think anyone would argue that having quality public education available to everyone in all areas is important, I’m just talking data here and looking at it from the real estate perspective. So, with that in mind, I decided to use one of the reports produced by proprietary software created by MORE, REALTORS® and based upon MLS home sales and price data, to compare home prices and sales in two of the best St Louis area public school districts to two of the worst (at least according to many lists of best and worst schools out there) to see how they compare. For two of the best districts, I chose Clayton and Kirkwood and for two fo the worst, I chose Riverview Gardens and the City of St Louis. The results were interesting and, somewhat surprising perhaps. The reports below have all the data, but here is a summary of the comparison:
By the way, if you would like to see reports like this for any St Louis area school district, county, zip or city, contact me and I’ll be happy to send it to you. Continue reading “What Impact Does The School District Have On Home Prices and Sales?“ Home affordability improved in the St. Louis metro area during the 3rd quarter, with 4 of the 7 largest counties seeing an improvement in their affordability index from the prior quarter and 5 of the 7 seeing an improvement in affordability from a year ago, according to the latest data from ATTOM Data Research. The greatest improvement in affordability was in Franklin County. As the table below shows, Franklin County saw a 12% improvement in housing affordability from the prior quarter and an 11% improvement from a year ago. Jefferson, St Charles and St Clair (IL) County saw improvements in affordability from the prior quarter as well. St Louis County suffered the greatest decline in housing affordability. St Louis County saw affordability decline 12% from the prior quarter and 10% from a year ago. Home prices are outpacing wages in 5 of the 7 counties covered… Continue reading “Home Affordability Improves In St Louis During Third Quarter“ You are probably saying I’m nuts to be saying that a home in St Louis costs less today than it did 13 years ago, back in 2006, but, note I said the “real cost” of a home. Since nearly all people buying a typical home in St Louis are going to do so with a mortgage, I think to really determine the cost of a home, and certainly, it’s affordability, we have to look deeper than just the price. Therefore, as the table below shows, I analyzed the cost of a home in St Louis during two periods of time, the most recent 5-year period and the 5-year period leading up to and including 2006 (the last year of the boom before the bust). In determining the real cost, I looked at the median price of homes sold but then also the mortgage interest rate at the time and the resulting payment. As the table illustrates, the current cost of a median-priced home in St Louis, from a mortgage payment perspective, dropped 5.5% from a year ago thanks to lower mortgage interest rates which more than offset the increase in home prices. The impact of interest rates on the true cost of a home is further illustrated by looking that the change in the mortgage payment for a median-priced home in St Louis from 2014 to today which was an increase of 17.8% over the period. However, the median price of homes sold during the same period increased by 23.4%, over 30% more than the payment increased! The real cost of a St Louis home today is even less than in 2006 Now, to go one step further, if you look at the second table below, which is for the period of July 2001 through July 2006, you will see that, while the median price of homes in St Louis was lower, mortgage interest rates were much higher. In fact, the median mortgage interest rate from 2001 through 2006 was 6.245% while it was just 4.0% from 2014 through 2019. This resulted in the mortgage payment of $1,084.26 on a median-priced home in St Louis in 2006, $76.56 per month more (7.5%) than today’s mortgage payment on a median-priced home in St Louis. Continue reading “The Real Cost of a Home In St Louis Is Lower Now Than It Was In 2006“ The St Louis real estate market is still going strong and interest rates are dirt cheap! Not much has changed over the past few months in the St Louis housing market in terms of home prices and sales, prices continue to rise at normal, healthy rates and sales continue along at a rate a little shy of last year. What has changed dramaticaly over the past 9 or 10 months however, are interest rates. The have dropped by a third and in this months market update video I do a little math and show just how much that impacts home buyers in a positive way! Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video. [xyz-ips snippet=”Market-Update-Video–Inline-Link”] [xyz-ips snippet=”Market-Update-Video-Package”] [xyz-ips snippet=”Seller-Resources—Listing-Targeted”] St Louis may be the 8th most affordable metro area in the country to buy a home, but it also has areas where home prices are much higher as well. The median price of homes sold in the St Louis metro area during the past 12-months is $184,500 however the average price of homes sold within the past 12-months has exceeded this in 85 of the 205 municipalities within the St Louis MSA. Below is our list of the 30 cities with the highest average price of homes sold during the past 12 months. St Louis County has the majority of the most expensive cities at 22 (although, in all fairness, St Louis County is also chopped up into a ridiculous number municipalities) followed by 7 in St Charles County and 1 in Warren County. [xyz-ips snippet=”St-Louis-Luxury-Homes-and-Condos—For-Sale-and-Open-House”] St Louis MSA’s Most Expensive Cities
The St Louis real estate market continues to show strength and favors sellers, however, buyers have shown they are price-sensitive.
While most of the St Louis market remains a seller’s market based upon the lack of inventory for sale, this does not mean (and the data backs it up) that it’s a blank check for sellers. Buyers in the market appear to be savvy and are price sensitive. In fact, one frustration I hear from agents with over-priced listings is that, not only do they only have few showings, they are not receiving offers. I think the issue is buyers don’t want to tie themselves up negotiating with a seller that, from the outset, seems unreasonable for fear that while tied up with them a real opportunity will come along and they will miss out. Therefore, for sellers to take full advantage of this seller’s market, they need to price their home appropriately from the start.
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video. [xyz-ips snippet=”Market-Update-Video–Inline-Link”] [xyz-ips snippet=”Market-Update-Video-Package”] Home affordability declined in the City of St Louis from a 98 on the affordability index in the first quarter to an index of 73 this quarter, for a decline of 25% in home affordability in the City of St Louis, according to the latest data from ATTOM Data Research. In neighboring St Louis County, the affordability was 116 in the first quarter and 89 the 2nd quarter, for a decline of 23%. On the affordability index, anything under 100 indicates homes are less affordable than the historical average and anything over 100 indicates homes are more affordable than the historical average. Homes became more affordable in Jefferson County and Madison County, IL. during the 2nd quarter. As the table below shows, Jefferson County improved from an already good 105 on the affordability index for the 1st quarter to 108 during the 2nd quarter and Madison County, IL from 103 to 106. The affordability index takes into account the median home price for the county as well as the median wages for the county, computing what percentage of wages it takes for people in that county to buy a home. In spite of the decrease in affordability in the City of St Louis, it still takes the small percentage of wages (21.7%) to buy a home there. The national average is 33.9%. Home prices are outpacing wages in 4 of the 7 counties covered… This year is a reassessment year for real property in Missouri, so assessors throughout the state are going to update the property values that tax assessments are based upon. According to state law, the value should reflect the value of the property as of January 1, 2019. Reassessment is done every two years, so the prior reassessment was in 2017. Given that the real estate market has been performing well now for the past several years, and property values are increasing, it’s not surprising that most property owners will see an increase in their assessment from the 2017 value to the 2019 value. However, homeowners in St Louis County have been particularly vocal about their dissatisfaction with the amount of the increase. An article on STL Today earlier this week shared the story of a Kirkwood couple that said: “We feel like we are being ripped off by the county” after the St Louis County assessor increased the value of their home 153% from the prior value two years before. According to the STL Today article, the preliminary figures from Jake Zimmerman, the St Louis County Assessor, show the median increase in assessment was 15% from the last assessment in 2017. How does the St Louis County Assessors 15% Increase in property values compare with the market data? [xyz-ips snippet=”Seller-Resources—Listing-Targeted”] Year to date, through the end of May, there were 9,929 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market, a decline of 5.2% from this time last year when 10,477 homes had sold. This marks the lowest YTD home sales through May since May 2015, when there were 9,262 homes sold. As the second chart below illustrates, the St Louis home sales trend (trailing 12 months and represented by the dark green line) peaked in October 2018 with 26,032 homes sold in the prior 12 months but then stalled and has begun a slight downward trend which continues with 25,433 homes sold in the 12 month period ending in May 2019. Meanwhile, St Louis home prices continue to rise with the median price of homes sold in the past 12 months in the 5-County Core market increasing 5.21% from the prior 12-month period. As the table below the charts shows, the median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market during the most recent 12-month period was $199,900, an increase from $190,000 during the prior 12-month period. The inventory of homes for sale has declined even further from last month, with just s 1.81 month supply of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-County Core Market. The low inventory is the key reason behind the lower home sales as there just aren’t enough homes for sale to satisfy the current home buyer demand. Would-be home sellers are afraid to list their homes… The low supply of homes for sale, coupled with the high demand, has many homeowners reluctant to list their homes for sale for fear they will sell but won’t be able to find a home to buy. This is why we developed our “Guaranteed No Sale” program, something that protects sellers from becoming “homeless”. It allows a seller to list their home with the confidence they won’t be obligated to sell if they are not successful in finding a home to buy. You can find out more at GuaranteedNoSale.com. Continue reading “St Louis Home Sales Continue Downward Trend – YTD Home Sales Lowest In 4 Years“ When the time comes for you to sell your home, would you like to sell your home for the highest price? I can’t imagine any homeowner not answering “yes” to that question. So, now that we know what all seller’s want; all we need to do now is determine the best way to go about reaching that goal. Asking a higher price often doesn’t bring you the highest price.. Simple logic may tell us that, if we want to sell a home for the highest price possible, to make sure we ask a high price for it. However, as the data below will illustrate, this that normally the case. In fact, if a home is listed for a higher price than the optimum listing price it may very well result in it eventually selling for less than it would have if priced at a lower, more accurate, price to being with. [xyz-ips snippet=”Seller-Resources—Listing-Targeted”] Asking the “right” price may not work well either if the marketing or timing is wrong either… Continue reading “How To Get The Highest Price For Your Home“ Home sales in St Louis through the end of April this year, are lower than they have been at the same time of year since 2015. As our exclusive year-to-date sales chart for the St Louis 5-County Core Market below shows, there have been 7,101 homes sold YTD this year (through 4/30) which is down 5.7% from the same time last year when there were 7,529 homes sold. The last time year-to-date home sales were lower at this time of year than now was back in 2015 when there were just 6,727 homes sold. St Louis 5-County Core Market YTD Home Sales 2015-2019Continue reading “St Louis Year To Date Home Sales Off To Slowest Start In 4 Years“
The number of home sales in St Louis may be down from the recent past but it’s still a Seller’s market!
The lack of home sales in St Louis is certainly not a result of a lack of interest, on the part of home buyers, but more a lack of sellers. This is clear in the data I presented in this months market update video. Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video. [xyz-ips snippet=”Market-Update-Video–Inline-Link”] Year to date, through the end of March, there have been 4,829 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market, a decline of 6.3% from this time last year when 5,156 homes had sold. As the second chart below illustrates, the St Louis home sales trend (trailing 12 months and represented by the dark green line) peaked in October 2018 with 26,032 homes sold in the prior 12 months but then stalled and has begun a slight downward trend since with 25,583 homes sold in the 12 month period ending in March 2019. Meanwhile, St Louis home prices continue to rise with the median price of homes sold in the past 12 months in the 5-County Core market increasing 4.79% from the prior 12-month period. As the table below the charts shows, the median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market during the most recent 12-month period was $198,950, an increase of 5.26% from the prior 12-month period when the median home price was $189,000. The inventory of homes for sale has declined from last month, with just s 2.33 month supply of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-County Core Market. Continue reading “St Louis Home Sale Trend Continues To Slow….Rising Price Trend Remains“
Home sales in St Louis are on a slower pace than this time last year.
The St Louis real estate market is still performing well, but just not at the same sales rate as last year thus far. Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video. [xyz-ips snippet=”Market-Update-Video–Inline-Link”] During the first quarter of this year, homebuyers in the City of St Louis needed to spend a median of just 16.9% of their annual wages to buy a median-priced home, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Services. This makes the City of St Louis the most affordable county to buy a home in the St Louis area. As the table below shows, St Charles County, where it takes 37.7% of annual wages to buy a median-priced home is the least affordable county for 1st quarter 2019. On a positive note, St Charles County had an affordability index of 101 for the quarter, meaning that homes were slightly more affordable there than the historic average. St Clair County had the best affordability index at 103 and the City of St Louis had the worst at 93. St Louis Area Home Affordability – 1st Quarter 2019
Year to date, there have been 2,903 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market, a decline of 3.6% from this time last year when 3,010 homes had sold. As the second chart below illustrates, the St Louis home sales trend (trailing 12 months and represented by the dark green line) peaked in October 2018 with 26,032 homes sold in the prior 12 months but then stalled and has begun a slight downward trend since with 25,756 homes sold in the 12 month period ending in February 2019. Meanwhile, St Louis home prices continue to rise with the median price of homes sold in the past 12 months in the 5-County Core market increasing 4.79% from the prior 12-month period. As the table below the charts shows, the median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market during the most recent 12-month period was $197,000, up from $188,000 during the prior 12-month period. The inventory of homes for sale remains low, with just s 2.5 month supply of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-County Core Market. Continue reading “St Louis Home Sale Trend Slowing Slightly“
The St Louis real estate market is still doing well however, home sales are off to a slower start this year than last year.
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
[xyz-ips snippet=”Market-Update-Video–Inline-Link”] Since the announcement of the Better Together plans to merge the County and City of St Louis together into one big “Metro City”, there has been a lot of talk about the impact this would have on the St Louis real estate market. I’ve had several conversations with people in the real estate industry that feel St Charles County, as well as some of the other surrounding counties, will benefit if the Better Together plan succeeds. Their optimism is based upon the belief that, given what appears to be a tremendous groundswell of opposition to the plan from residents of both St Louis City and St Louis County, that, if it passes, many will flee the new Metro City. Obviously, only time will tell as to whether the Better Together Plan will even get the required number of signatures on the petition, if so, then whether the voters pass it. It is only then, in the subsequent months and years afterward that we will really be able to see just what impact, favorably or negatively, it has on the St Louis real estate market. For now, however, it seemed a good time to take a look at the St Charles County and St Louis County real estate markets and compare them. [xyz-ips snippet=”St-Charles-County-For-Sale-and-Open-Houses”] Continue reading “St Charles County vs St Louis County Home Price Appreciation“ For the 12-month period ended February 28, 2019, there were 37,427 homes sold in the St Louis metro area, a decline of 1.22% from the prior 12-month period when there were 37,889 homes sold, according to our STL Market Report below. During the same period, the median price of homes sold in the St Louis metro area increased by 4.11% from $172,900 to $180,000. As the table shows, there is currently a 3.19 month supply of homes for sale in the St Louis metro area.
STL Market Report – St Louis MSA
At the end of last month, Better Together, a not-for-profit group aimed at combining St Louis City and St Louis County into one big “Metro City”, released their plan for doing so. To say this is a hot topic among residents of those two areas would be an understatement. Proponents of the plan say it will make St Louis the 9th largest city in the U.S., will streamline government, dilute the city crime stats making them appear to be better and, in the end, lead to increased economic development and growth for the region. Opponents, such as the Municipal League of Metro St Louis argue that their (Better Together) plan is unconstitutional (hence why the Missouri Constitution must be changed to permit it) and that “the great divorce”, the label applied to when the city of St Louis separated from St Louis County back in 1876 was done using the Board of Freeholders, so if the two want to get back together, the same approach should be done to accomplish it (Board of Freeholders). Additionally, the opponents argue that allowing the entire state to decide the fate of the people of these two counties is wrong, that historic cities (such as Florissant and Kirkwood) will be disbanded and, in the end, the underlying problems that hinder growth here won’t’ really be addressed. The proceeding is, of course, my very brief synopsis of the two views as I see them so I would suggest you research the matter for yourself and have included some resources below to do just that.
What the Better Together Plan means for St Louis home prices. Continue reading “The Better Together Plan And St Louis Real Estate“
The St Louis real estate market is off to a little slower start this year and there are some indicators that we may be in for a little price correction in some areas.
Find out more, as well as get information on some of St Louis’s best resources for home buyers and sellers in our just-released market update video.
[xyz-ips snippet=”Market-Update-Video–Inline-Link”] Many of the forecasts for home sales this year call for either a slight decline from last year or about the same as last year, in terms of home sales. I think the St Louis market will probably see about the same number of homes sold in 2019 as we did in 2018, it may just come with a little bit of a price adjustment. So, while I don’t like looking at home sales “year over year” for one month, I’m going to make the exception today and include that. As the first chart below shows, in January there were 1,282 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market (non-distressed home sales) which is down 5% from January 2018 when there were 1,352 homes sold but is up nearly 2% from January 2017 when there were 1,259 homes sold. Continue reading “St Louis Home Sales Off To Slower Start In 2019 While Prices Rise“ |
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