New Listings To New Contracts Ratio Increases This Month

For the first three weeks of June there were 1,475 new listings of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-county core market, according to the STL Real Estate Trends Report from MORE, REALTORS®.  During the same period, there were 1,194 new contracts written on homes for sale resulting in a new listing to new contract ratio of 1.25.  This ratio of listings to new sales is higher than it was 3 weeks ago when I shared the last update from the STL Real Estate Trends report and it was 1.05 at that time for the period reported which was the first 3 weeks of May.

It was at the end of last week that the mortgage bond market blew apart forcing mortgage interest rates up so when our new report for this week is release next Thursday we’ll see what effect that had on the market.

St Louis YTD Home Sales Down Nearly Nine Percent From Last Year

There have been 9,645 homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market during the first 5-months of this year which, as the STL Market Chart below illustrates, is a decline of 8.8% from the same time last year when there were 10,579 homes sold.

2022 home sales outpacing 2020…

While this years St Louis home sales are lagging behind last years, as the chart below also shows, 2022 YTD home sales is 2.8% higher than in 2020 when there were 9,382 YTD home sales.

$1 Million+ home sales going strong…

The bottom chart shows there have been 189 one-million dollar+ homes sold in St Louis year-to-date through May 31st, a slight increase over last year when there were 187 homes sold during the period.  This years $1,000,000+ home sales are 89% higher than they were during the period in 2020.

New Home Building Permits In St Louis For Most Recent 12-Months Decline Nearly 10 Percent

There were 5,138 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended April 30, 2022, a decrease of 9.69% from the same period a year ago when there were 5,138 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).   Four of the seven counties covered in the report saw a double-digit decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago.


  

St Louis New Home Building Permits -April  2022

St Louis New Home Building Permits -April  2022

 

Pending Home Sales Increase In Midwest Region In April…down in all other regions

The pending home sales index from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) was released showing the midwest region as the only region that had an increase from March to April.  According to the NAR report below, the pending home sales index for the midwest increased 6.6% from March to April while declining 3.9% for the nation as a whole.  As the table below shows, all while all four regions in the U.S. saw a decline in the pending home sales index from a year ago, the midwest fared the best again showing only a 2.8% decline while the other regions all saw a double-digit decline.

National Association of REALTORS®

Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)

National Association of REALTORS®  Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)

 

 

St Louis New Listings to New Contracts Trend Remains Steady

For the first three weeks of May there were 2,115 new listings of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-county core market, according to the STL Real Estate Trends Report from MORE, REALTORS®.  During the same period, there were 2,019 new contracts written on homes for sale resulting in a new listing to new contract ratio of 1.05.  This is pretty consistent with the recent trend with new listings slightly outpacing new sales.  As the tables at the bottom show, for April there were 3,470 new listings and 3,269 new contracts written for a new listing to new contract ratio of 1.06.

St Louis Home Sales Doing Well In Spite of Rising Interest Rates & Inflation

There have been a lot of reports over the past month about rising interest rates (mortgage rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 5.27% last week) as well as rising inflation rates (8.5% in March) and the effect these things will have on the housing market.  It’s no doubt they will have some affect on home prices and sales and I have been watching the data on St Louis home prices and sales closely and so far there does not appear to be much impact.

St Louis home sales increase in April from March…

There are two ways we analyze home sales at MORE, REALTORS®;  the traditional manner, which is what almost all public reports are based upon, closed sales (which are really indicative of what the market was like 1-2 months previously since that is when the contracts were typically written) and then by use of our STL Real Estate Trends Report, which gives us a better idea of the current activity.  Our trends report shows the number of new contracts written on listings, so current sales activity as well as the number of new listings entering the market.  The good news is, when looking at St Louis home sales activity for April, both closed sales and newly written contracts increased from the month before.

As our chart below shows, there were 2,134 homes sold in St Louis (5-county core market) during April, a 6.4% increase from March when there were 2,005 homes sold.  As the STL Real Estate Trends Report shows, there were 3,279 new contracts written on homes during April in the St Louis 5-county core market, an increase of 5% from the prior month when there were 3,124 contracts written.

New Sales Last Week Declined Over Thirty Percent From The Week Before

Last week there were 551 new contracts written for the sale of listings in the St Louis 5-county core market down over thirty-six percent (31.3%) from the week before when there were 802 new contracts written, according to the STL Real Estate Trends Report, exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®.  The new sales activity last week was down even more (nearly 36%) from the same week a year ago when there were 851 new contracts written on listings.   There is no doubt this is the result of mortgage interest rates which have nearly doubled in the last 15 months.

New listings on the other hand increased last week to 851 from 618 the week before.  The new listing activity is pretty much in line with the same week a year ago when there were 858 new listings.  If this trend continues the listing supply will likely increase significantly.  Given that the for the 5-county core market its been under 1 month for a long time, it can afford to increase some.

The current week will be very telling.  When we see data next week from this week, if the numbers are similar to what we saw last week, it’s a likely indicator of a market shift to some extent.  Time will tell..

New Sales Of Listings Continue To Outpace New Listings

Even with the high rate of inflation, rising interest rates and general unrest in the economy, during the past two weeks there were more new contracts written on listings than there were new listings.  According to the STL Real Estate Trends Report, exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®,  during the last two weeks there were 1,496 new contracts accepted on listings in the St Louis 5-County core market while there were 1,432 new listings during the same period.   While there were only 4.5% more sales than listings, given the fact we are already in a low-inventory market, this is fairly significant.

STL Real Estate Trends Report

(click on report for current report)

STL Real Estate Trends Report STL Real Estate Trends Report

 

How Much Will St Louis Home Prices Be Impacted By Inflation?

Yesterday, I wrote an article addressing the high rate of inflation just reported and its impact on the St Louis housing market. In it, I promised to take a deeper look into the effect of the current events related to the economy on St Louis home prices which I will do in this article.

Before I go further, I should mention I’m not an economist nor a fortune teller.  I am, however, a real estate broker and data nerd that has spent over 40 years in the St Louis real estate industry.  I try my best to use my knowledge and experience to anticipate changes in the market and use this to help our agents and clients use this information to their advantage.

History always repeats itself..

I find the above old adage to be pretty accurate when it comes to the real estate market.  Therefore, in trying to get my head around what impact a high inflation rate may have on home prices, I started by going back to prior periods of high inflation rates.

The first chart below shows the rate of inflation, interest rates, and the St Louis home price index.  I’ve made some notes on it to show prior inflationary periods and the effect on home prices. The first period, the early 80s was much worse than today as inflation was higher and interest rates were in the stratosphere hitting 18%.  The more recent period around 2007-2009 was not as severe and therefore the impact on home prices was not as dramatic as the former either.  As you can see on the far right side of the chart, home prices have increased in the past several months at a sharp rate with the change from a year ago being greater than the last inflationary period but not as great as the one from the early ’80s.

The next chart shows the relationship between home prices and rent.  When home prices outpace rent, home prices decline, when rent outpaces home prices, prices rise.  As the chart shows, these two lines have converged indicating a reasonable balance between home prices and rent.

During the period of 2007 – 2011 home prices fell over 17% during a four year period before finally bottoming out.

Today is different though…

St Louis Home Sales Trend Declining

The home sales trend in St Louis is easing with 29,778 homes being sold in the St Louis 5-county core market during the 12-month period ended December 31, 2021, according to the chart below provided by MORE, REALTORS®.  This 12-month rate of St Louis home sales has declined for the 3rd month in a row after peaking at 30,225 homes sold in the 12-month period ended September 30, 2021.

Leading indicator Reports Show a Downturn in Home Sales as well…

The STL Real Estate Trends Report, below the chart, shows new contracts written on listings for the most recent week reported, compared with the same week last year.  As the report shows, contracts written during the most recent week were down 23% from the same week a year ago, with all 5 counties reported showing a double digit decline.  Franklin County saw the biggest drop at 34% followed by St Louis City witha. 31% decline.

St Louis Home Sales in 2021 Tops Year Before By Nearly 4 Percent – Prices Up Over 9 Percent

As the STL Market Report (available exclusively from MORE, REATLORS®) below illustrates, there were 30,197 homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market during 2021, an increase of 3.86% from 2020 when there were 29,075 homes sold.  The median sales price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market was $250,000 during 2021, an increase of 9.17% from 2020 when the median price of homes sold in St Louis was $229,000.  The 5-county core St Louis market is comprised of the city and county of St Louis, along with the counties of Jefferson, Franklin, and St Charles. The St Louis core market is responsible for over 7y0% of all homes sold in the 17-county St Louis MSA market.

Housing inventory remains low…

As the last row of the report shows, there is still just a 0.6 month supply of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-county core market and the median time on the market is 64 days.

St Louis New Contracts On Listings Outpacing New Listings But By 15 Percent Less Than Last Year

New sales of listings (an accepted offer) in St Louis in November are outpacing new listings with 1.06 new sales for every 1 new listing.  As the leading indicator reports below illustrate (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®), for the first 3 weeks in November, there have been 2,139 new sales of listings and 2,026 new listings.  At the same time a year ago, new sales outpaced new listings at 1.24 to 1, so the current trend is down 15%.

Worth noting in the data is that new sales of St Louis homes in the first three weeks of November 2021 are up 4.5% from the same period a year ago, new listings for the same period this year are up 23% from a year ago.  This is a trend worth watching and if it continues, could help with the low inventory problem that has made the St Louis real estate market a brutal market for home buyers for the past couple of years.

YTD St Louis Home Sales Through October Up Over 5% From Last Year

In spite of the challenges of a low-inventory market as well as the threat of inflationary pressure on the economy, St Louis home sales still remain strong.  As the infographic below shows (exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®) year-to-date home sales through October of this year are outpacing last year by over 5% and the prior 3 years as well by an even larger margin!

Has the St Louis Real Estate Market Peaked?

I’ve written a couple of articles lately addressing the news reports about the housing market cooling down.  As I’ve addressed in those articles, there has not really been much data supporting a significant cooling in the St Louis real estate market.  Additionally, I’ve noted that, due to the seasonality of the housing market, and the fact we are headed toward winter, a cooling of the market would be the seasonal norm.

So today, I decided to pick an easier question to answer, “has the St Louis real estate market peaked?”  The short answer is yes, I believe it has.  This statement, by itself, is not all bad as it would NOT be good for St Louis home prices to continue to increase at the rates they have over the past couple of years.  Not to mention, if we stay in this low-inventory market strongly favoring sellers much longer, many buyers are going to just give up and shelf the idea of buying for a while.

As usual, I’ll let the data speak for itself.  I have several charts and tables below (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) that I believe support that we have probably seen the St Louis market peak.

St Louis Area Housing Market Report For September

The St Louis housing market appears to be cooling off slightly with fewer home sales last month than a year ago in 3 of the 5 St Louis area counties that make up the St Louis 5-county core real estate market.  As the charts below illustrate, the decline in the overall St Louis market was very slight, with 3,164 homes sold last month just 11 sales fewer than September last year when there were 3,715 homes sold in the St Louis5-county core market.  The charts have complete details but below is a recap of home sales and prices by county for last month versus September 2020:

  • St Louis City & County – These two counties combined are the only in the core market to see an increase in sales last month from a year ago.  Last month there were 1,710 homes sold, an increase of 4.6% from a year ago when there were 1,634 homes sold.  Last month the median price of homes sold was $247,000 and increase of nearly 7.5% from last year when it was $229,900.
  • Franklin County – Last month there were 127 homes sold, a decrease of 13.6% from a year ago when there were 147 homes sold.  Last month the median price of homes sold was $227,050 and increase of nearly 14.5% from last year when it was $198,300.
  • Jefferson County – Last month there were345 homes sold, a decrease of 6.8% from a year ago when there were 370 homes sold.  Last month the median price of homes sold was $229,000 and increase of nearly 9.0% from last year when it was $210,000.
  • St Charles County – Last month there were 617 homes sold, a decrease of 10.8% from a year ago when there were 684 homes sold.  Last month the median price of homes sold was $303,000 and increase of nearly 12.2% from last year when it was $270,000.

St Louis Home Sales Trend Remains Strong

More and more today I’m seeing reports in the media about the housing market cooling down and sales slowing which, quite frankly, I have expected and keep watching for signs of it in the St Louis real estate market.  However, in spite of a few blips on the radar, all the data I’m reviewing still shows pretty steady and consistent home sales in St Louis.  Don’t get me wrong, I fully expect us to see a cooling of the St Louis market if for no other reason, winter will be here soon and then we’ll be headed toward year-end when the market always cools down.  There are many factors that could come into play to further impact the market such as higher interest rates, a weaker economy as well as an influx of foreclosed homes hitting the market in the month ahead.  For all of this, we will have to wait and see, but for now, things are pretty steady.  Below are some charts and data that I feel support my thoughts on the market.

St Louis 5-County Core Market – Home Sales Trend

(click on chart for live, interactive chart)

St Louis 5-County Core Market - Home Sales Trend

As the chart above illustrates, the time it takes for a home to sell (days on market, represented by the brown line at the bottom) has been consistent the last four months, ranging from a low of 6 days to a high of 8 days.  The green line shows the 12-month home sales trend and it has been fairly consistent the last 4 months as well, actually increasing in June, then dipping slightly in July only to rise again in August to nearly June’s level.  Finally, the red line shows the median price per foot of the homes sold and that has also been consistent the last 4 months with a slight increase from $167/foot in May to $170 in June and then $171 in July and August.

St Louis Real Estate Trends Report

New Listings & New Sales  (click on report for live report)

St Louis Real Estate Trends Report St Louis Real Estate Trends Report

The above reports show that in the most recent week new contracts written for the sale of homes increased 29% from the week before and new listings increased 3% from the week before.  During the week there were just about the same number of new listings as new sales at 764 and 767 respectively.

St Louis Area Supply of Listing Inventory

 (click on report for live report)

St Louis Area Supply of Listing Inventory

The report above shows there is currently a 0.89 month supply of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-County market.  This is only slightly higher than it has been in past months. Of the 5-counties in the core market, St Charles County has the lowest inventory of homes for sale with an inventory of just over half a month.

Number of St Louis Distressed Home Sales Declined Over 90 Percent In Past 10 Years

There were a total of 550 home sales in the St Louis 5-County core market during the 12-month period ended August 31, 2021, a decline of over 90 percent  (90.5%) from the same period 10 years earlier.  As the chart below (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) illustrates, the St Louis distressed home sales 12-month trend peaked in May 2013 with 6,078 distressed home sales in the prior 12-month period and has fallen to just 550 distressed home sales for the 12-month period ended August 31, 2021.  For the purposes of this report, distressed home sales include the sale of homes previously foreclosed on and being sold by banks or a government entity (such as FHA/VA) and short sales.  Given that there has been a foreclosure moratorium in place for several months during the past year it’s not surprising the current trend is down but as the chart shows, the trend has been steadily downward since late 2013.

  

St Louis 5-County Distressed Home Sales – 01/01/2011 – 8/31/2021

(click on chart for live, interactive chart)

St Louis 5-County Distressed Home Sales - 01/01/2011 - 8/31/2021

St Louis Home Sales Trend Slows Slightly In August

There continue to be conversations by St Louis REALTORS® as well as other industry professionals as to whether or not the market is cooling off somewhat or slowing down.  I keep watching the data closely to look for signs of a substantive change and while there are some, the market adjustments appear to be somewhat insignificant at this point. Last month, in an article about July’s market, I pointed out a slight slowing of the trend in July.  Now, I’m taking a look at August, specifically, the number of new listings that came on the St Louis real estate market during that month versus the number of new sales during the month.

More new listings in August than a year ago, fewer new sales:

As the STL Real Estate Trends Reports below show (exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®) 3,702 new listings came on the market in the St Louis 5-County core during August, an increase in new St Louis listings of 3.2% from a year ago when there were 3,586 new listings.  Conversely, there were 3,861 new sales of homes last month, a decrease in St Louis home sales of 2.2% from a year ago when there were 3,949 new contracts written.

New contracts written exceeded listings again but not by as much margin:

During August 2020, the number of new contracts written on listings exceeded new listings in St Louis by about 10 percent (10.1%).  Last month, new sales of St Louis listings only exceed the number of new listings by just over 4 percent (4.2%).

So, as I mentioned, the change in trend is slight, but something worth keeping an eye on.

St Louis Area Home Sales Trend Slows Slightly After Setting Record in June

There has been talk of “the market slowing down” and while there hasn’t been a lot of data to support that, we did see the sales trend slow slightly in July.  As the home sales trend chart below shows, exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®, the home sales trend for the 12-month period ending has increased every month of this year over the prior month through June. For the 12-month period ending in June, there were 30,055 homes sold marking the highest record since we’ve been tracking the data, however, for the 12-month period ending in July home sales decreased slightly to 29,974 homes.

More new listings than new sales…

A change I’ve also noticed lately is that the number of new listings hiring the St Louis market is outpacing the number of new sales, a reversal of the trend we saw until recently.  As the STL Trends Reports below show, there were 881 new listings in the most recent week and 816 new sales.  For the prior week, the trend was the same with 895 new listings and  807 new sales.

Sold Price To Listing Price Gap Narrows In July After Setting New Record in June

In June of this year the Median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market was $266,000, 6.4% higher than the median list price of $250,000 for those homes sold.  This breaks the record of 4.4% set in April and is the highest gap we’ve seen between the median sold price and listing price since we’ve been tracking it, In July the gap narrowed though, albeit slightly, with the median price of homes sold coming in at $265,000, 6.0% higher than the median list price of $250,000.  Worth noting as well is between June and July, the median list price of homes in the St Louis 5-County core market stayed the same and the median sold price decreased 0.3%..

St Louis 5-County Core – Sold Price to List Price – July 2020 – July 2021 Chart

(Click on Chart for Live Chart with current data)
St Louis 5-County Core – Sold Price to List Price – July 2020 – July 2021 Chart

The Value of Good Data Coupled With a Good Agent

What an interesting real estate market we’ve experienced in St Louis over the past few years!  Seller’s fully expect their homes to sell the first weekend after hitting the market, with a feeding frenzy by buyer’s and bidding wars that drive the price above the list price.  Buyer’s come to realize if they are going to be successful in buying a home they have to think fast, take chances and move quick!  Heck, with a market like this, it’s no wonder a lot of folks, particularly sellers, don’t necessarily see a need for a real estate agent.

However, the reality is that sellers and buyers need a great agent now more than ever.  Yes, I emphasized great as, like in any profession, there are varying levels of knowledge, experience and professionalism among real estate agents.   In addition to having a great agent that agent needs timely, accurate market data, along with an understanding of the market resulting in complete market knowledge.  Unfortunately, this combination is not easy to find. 

So what’s the actual price, $270,000 or $250,000?

Sold Price To Listing Price Gap Narrows In May After Hitting Record in April

In April of this year the Median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market was $250,000, 4.4% higher than the median list price of $239,450 for those homes sold.  This is the highest gap we’ve seen between the median sold price and listing price since we’ve been tracking it.  Last month the gap narrowed though with the median price of homes sold in May coming in at $258,000, 3.2% higher than the median list price of $249,900.  Worth noting as well is between April and May, the median list price of homes in the St Louis 5-County core market increased 4.4% and the median sold price increased 3.2%.

St Louis 5-County Core Sold Price to List Price Chart

(click on chart for live chart)St Louis 5-County Core Sold Price to List Price Chart

St Louis Home Sales And Prices Saw Double-Digit Increase In Past 12-Months

For the 12-month period ended May 31, 2021, there were 30,225 homes sold within the St Louis 5-County core market, an increase in home sales of 13.91% from the prior 12-month period, according to the STL Market Report below, available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®.  During the same period, St Louis home prices increased 11.5% from a median of $213,000 to $237,500.  As the report also shows, the current supply of listings for sale is low at 0.86 months.

STL Market Report For the St Louis 5-County Core Market

(click on report for live, complete report)

STL Market Report For the St Louis 5-County Core Market

 

STL Market Report – May 2021

St Louis Realtors Home Prices and Sales Market Report May 2021

St Louis Area Housing Market Report For April

In spite of the challenge of a low-inventory housing market, St Louis City and County, St Charles County and Franklin County all saw double-digit increases in the number of homes sold in April while Jefferson County saw a double digit decline.   As the charts below illustrate, the median price of homes sold in those counties increased from a year ago in all the counties, two of them in the double digits.

Not all housing data is the same….nor accurate for that matter…

One thing worth noting is that there are housing market reports out there from many different sources, including many credible ones that may or may not be accurate.  In most cases this is not due to an error on the part of the person or entity sharing the data but a result of either bad data,  inaccurate data or misinterpreted data.   For example, when preparing to write this article I noticed two different reports on “St Louis” home prices for homes sold in April.  One, which indicated it was for St Louis City and County combined, reported $250,000 and one which reported the “St Louis area” was $266,000.  In the case of the latter, my first guess was that they were reporting data for the St Louis MSA but when I checked that the actual sold price in April was only $223,750 so I have no idea where the data came from.  For the former, the $250,000 median price is not only higher than the median price for St Louis City and County, it’s higher than the median price for the whole MSA and while the source is indicated, I’m not sure how this number was arrived at.

So what does it matter?

In the crazy market we are in where buyers are getting in bidding wars to get a home, I think it’s more important than ever to have good, relevant and accurate data available to your agent so your agent can help you make an informed decision.  You ultimately may decide to pay above what you think the current value of the home is but it would help to know what the real value is.  If you look at my chart below for St Louis City and County you’ll see the median price of homes sold in April was $230,000 which is quite different than the $250,000 price and $266,000 I saw reported elsewhere.  Would being $20,000 – $36,000 off on the value matter to you?  I think it might.

So how do I know I’m right?

Well, for starters I’m a data junky and for the past dozen or so years I’ve probably spent, on average about a dozen hours a week or more studying market data for St Louis.  In addition, for the past 6 or 7 years we have worked to develop our own proprietary software to compile and report housing data and are constantly checking and double checking the output.  Finally, we have a very credible source for data, the REALTOR® MLS and we constantly update and check the data.  Put all of this together and while there’s no way to say it’s 100% correct, but I’m confident it’s about as close as you can get.

St Louis Luxury Home Sales Trended Upward For 10 Consecutive Months

The St Louis luxury home market (homes priced at $700,000 or above) after remaining relatively flat for about a year has been steadily trending upward for now 10-months in a row.  Even though April is not over, there have already been more sales of Luxury homes closed than for the month before, so April will make the 10th month of increased sales activity.

As the STL Market Chart below shows (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®), sales of luxury homes in St Louis City and County and St Charles County, have increased from 694 sales for the 12-month period ended April 2018 to 1,130 for the 12-month period ending the 30th of this month (so it’s going to rise further even), an increase of 63% in the past 3 years.  For the sake of this analysis, a “luxury” home was considered to be a home selling for $700,000 or above, which puts it in the upper 5% or so of the market.

St Louis Luxury Home Sales Trend (12-month prior periods) For the Past 3 Years

(click on Chart for current chart with live data)

St Louis Luxury Home Sales Trend (12-month prior periods) For the Past 3 Years

Is The St Louis MSA Real Estate Market Better in Missouri or Illinois?

There are a total of seventeen counties that make up the St Louis MSA with 9 of them being on the Missouri side of the Mississippi River and the other 8 on the Illinois side.  For some reason, I was curious today if the portion of the St Louis MSA in one state was outperforming the other or if they were performing about the same.  I guess my expectation was probably the latter but the data showed that in fact, during the past three months, they were closed, but each state has its bragging rights depending on which data point you look at.

The tables and charts below (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) show more details but below are some highlights of the comparisons between the counties in the two states:

  • Sold home prices in Missouri for December were at a median price of $226,500 in December then dipped in January, as expected but rebounded back in February to a median price of $225,000 or 99.3% of the December price.  Illinois, on the other hand, had a median price of $150,000 in December then actually increased in January but then fell to $137,750 in February, or 91.8% of the December price.
  • The number of home sales paints a different picture though.  For the Missouri counties, there were 2,819 homes sold in December and  1,849 in February, for a decrease of 34%.  In the Illinois counties, there were 744 homes sold in December and 554 in February for a 26% decrease.


New Sales Of Listings Are Outpacing New Listings

As any home buyer in the market is well aware no doubt, we have a low inventory of homes for sale in the St Louis MSA.  As the STL Market Report below shows (which is exclusivley available from MORE, REALTORS®) there is currently just a 1.2 month supply of active listings in the St Louis metro area.  It doesn’t look like the situation is improving either as MORE’s Local Home Trends Reports at the bottom show that new contracts in the past two weeks have outpaced new listings during the same period.  There were 2,105 new contracts written for the sale of a home and there were 1,976 new listings of homes for sale.  With the new sales outpacing new listings by a little over 6% it indicates we are not going to see any improvement in the inventory in the near term.

STL Market Report for the St Louis MSA

(click on report for live report)

STL Market Report for the St Louis MSA

Continue reading “New Sales Of Listings Are Outpacing New Listings

St Louis 12-Month Home Sales Sets 15-Year Record In February

For the 12-month period ended February 28, 2021, there were 29,402 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market.  As the 15-year chart below (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) shows, this is the highest 12-month sales period in more than 15 years!  Going back to 2006, a historic banner year for real estate, we find that the 12-month period ended March 31, 2006, came in close at 28,797 homes sold, but that’s a little over 2% below our most recent 12-month period.

But, can St Louis home sales keep up this pace?

Having a record-setting period for home sales is great but, practically speaking, it’s hard to sustain a record level for long so typically sales would ease after a record period and settle into a “norm”.  Having been in this business for 40 years, I’ve seen many of these periods and the $64 question is always the same.  How long can it last?  I’m not going to even pretend I have that answer as there are too many variables including the continued impact of the pandemic on the economy and life in general, rising oil and gas prices, rising government debt, and uncertainty about the economy to name just a few.  Oh, and did I mention the lack of inventory?  It’s hard to maintain record sales levels when there are not enough products to sell.

21 Zips In 5-County Core Where Listing Inventory Is More Than Double The Median

If you are in the process of trying to find a home to purchase or have gone through the process in the last couple of years, I don’t need to tell you how low the inventory of homes for sale is.  Currently, in the St Louis 5-County core market, there is less than a one-month supply of homes for sale (0.85 months).

However, within that area, there are 21 zip codes that have a current supply of at least double that, 1.7 months or more.  As the chart below shows, the supply of homes for sale in these zip codes ranges from a high of 9 months in 63115 down to 1.71 months in 63367.  There are a total of 9 zip codes that have a supply greater than triple the median of 0.85 months  (2.55 months+).