St. Louis Metro’s Hottest School Districts: 5 of the Top 10 Located in St. Clair County, Illinois

As of 2023, according to data from the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education and the Illinois State Board of Education, there are roughly 135-145 school districts within the 17 counties of the St. Louis Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). This figure includes public school districts but excludes private and charter schools. These districts vary significantly in size, home prices, and demand for homes. While strong school districts and top-rated schools are major attractions for home buyers and may reflect in the prices homes fetch compared to those in lesser districts, they do not guarantee quick sales. However, it is logical to assume that the quality of schools can significantly influence demand in various subdivisions.

What are the fastest-selling school districts in the St. Louis metro area currently?

As of today, the list below, available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®, indicates that the Windsor C-1 School District in Jefferson County is the fastest-selling, with homes staying on the market for an average of just 5 days. It is followed by Smithton DIST 130 in Illinois, with an average of 6 days on the market, and Sunrise R-IX in Jefferson County, taking third place with 7 days. St. Clair County in Illinois claims five of the top ten spots for the fastest-selling school districts, followed by Jefferson County with three. It should be noted that smaller school districts, with fewer homes on the market, may have an advantage over larger districts with more extensive inventory.


Top 10 Fastest Selling School Districts in the St Louis Metro Area

(click on list below for current, complete list)

Top 10 Fastest Selling School Districts in the St Louis Metro Area

St. Louis Home Sales Drop 25% in Latest 12-Month Review Compared to Previous Year

There were 31,960 homes sold in the St. Louis metro area during the 12-month period ending March 31, 2024, as the chart below from MORE, REALTORS® exclusively illustrates. This represents a 25% decline from the number of sales for the same period a year ago. While this is a slight increase from the 12-month sales low of 31,775 homes for the period ending December 31, 2023, it’s the lowest sales volume for this period since March 2015. Based on the chart, it appears that the trend of declining home sales has ended, as it has remained fairly flat over the last 8 months.

During the most recent 12-month period, homes in the St. Louis metro area sold for a median price of $170 per foot, marking an increase of about 7.5% from the same period a year ago.

St Louis MSA 12-Month Home Sales and Price Trend – Past 15 Years (Chart)

(click on chart for live, interactive chart)

St Louis MSA 12-Month Home Sales and Price Trend - Past 15 Years (Chart)


St. Louis Area Residential Real Estate Market Report For March 2024

The St. Louis MSA residential real estate market is experiencing a phase of transformation. While the sales volume has seen a downturn, median sale prices have held steady, indicating a resilient market underpinned by solid demand.  The complete STL Market Reports for the entire metro area as a whole, as well as the major counties, are available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS® and are below.

Key Findings:

  • Sales Volume Decline: The St. Louis MSA experienced a 9.30% decrease in the number of homes sold during the 12-month period ending March 31, 2024, compared to the previous year.
  • Median Sold Price Growth: Despite decreased sales, median sold prices rose by 2.40% from $248,000 to $253,950 during the same period.
  • Price Per Square Foot (PPSF):  The PPSF of current listings is 3.74% than the PPSF of homes that sold during the prior 12-months. This suggests an adjustment in the market with current listings being priced lower than what was sold in the past year.
  • Inventory and Supply:  There is currently a 1.07 months supply of homes for sale, indicating a tight inventory reflective of a seller’s market.
  • Median days on the market: The median time on the market of current listings is just 22 days, showing homes are selling relatively quickly.

County Highlights:

  • St. Louis City and St Louis County:
    • A decrease of -5.14% in homes sold year-over-year.
    • A reduction in median sold price by -1.21%.
    • A significant drop in PPSF for current listings by -15.93% compared to the last 12 months.
  • St. Charles County:
    • The number of homes sold dropped by -14.64%.
    • Median sold prices increased by 5.97%.
    • PPSF for current listings increased by 12.61%, signaling strong market growth.
  • Franklin County:
    • A decrease of -9.72% in homes sold year-over-year.
    • Median sold prices increased by 9.09%.
    • PPSF for current listings rose by 8.86%.
  • Jefferson County:
    • The number of homes sold decreased by -16.63%.
    • An increase in median sold prices by 4.02%.
    • A substantial increase in PPSF for current listings by 12.63%.

Market Implications:

The St. Louis MSA real estate market is currently defined by a decrease in the number of homes sold but a general uptrend in prices. The PPSF analysis reveals a market correction, yet the trend suggests prices might increase shortly.

  • For Sellers: The current market presents an opportunity due to low inventory levels and a consequent seller’s market, indicated by the low months’ supply.
  • For Buyers:  The decreased competition and market adjustment could benefit buyers, yet they should be mindful of the resilient pricing trends.

The real estate landscape in the St. Louis metro requires careful navigation, with sellers possibly leveraging the low supply and buyers staying cautious of the potential for increasing prices. Stay informed with St. Louis Real Estate News for ongoing analysis and insights into local market trends.

Continue reading “St. Louis Area Residential Real Estate Market Report For March 2024

St Louis Metro Area Real Estate Market Report for January 2024 with accurate data you can trust

The St. Louis Metro Area Real Estate Market Report for January 2024, presented below, provides an overview of the St Louis real estate market for each county within the St Louis MSA. This infographic is a unique offering from MORE, REALTORS, which is renowned for its expertise in St. Louis real estate market intelligence. Additionally, our brokerage prides itself on having a team of the most experienced and knowledgeable agents who are deeply committed to serving our clients throughout the St. Louis metro area.

St Louis Metro Real Estate Report for January 2024

(click on infographic for complete report including all counties in the St Louis Metro Area)St Louis Metro Real Estate Report for January 2024

St Louis Metro Area Home Sales Fall to Lowest Level in 9 Years

As 2023 drew to a close, the St. Louis metro real estate market concluded the year with a total of 31,747 homes sold. As highlighted in the chart below, this figure represents the lowest annual home sales in the St. Louis MSA in nine years, since 2014, when the total was 31,531 homes sold.

Home prices in the St. Louis MSA have shown more resilience than sales volumes. As 2023 came to a close, the 12-month median home price per foot stood at $169, marking a 5% increase from the previous year. This trend provides a stark contrast to the sales figures. Over the past nine years, while the number of homes sold initially rose, it eventually reverted to levels seen nine years ago. In contrast, the median price per foot for homes sold has witnessed a substantial increase of over 74%, soaring from $97 per foot to $169 per foot.


12-Month Home Sales and Price Trend For the St Louis MSA For the Past 15 Years

(click on chart for live, interactive chart)

12-Month Home Sales and Price Trend For the St Louis MSA For the Past 15 Years

St. Louis Housing Market Sees Shift: Key Insights from 2023 Year-End Data

The “STL Market Report,” below exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS, provides a comprehensive look at the St. Louis residential real estate market as 2023 ended. This report outlines a mixed array of trends, highlighting a notable decline in the number of homes sold contrasted with a modest increase in median sold prices, offering in-depth knowledge for prospective buyers and sellers to navigate the market.

Decrease in Home Sales Volume
The St. Louis metro area witnessed a noticeable reduction in the volume of home sales year-over-year. A total of 31,704 homes were sold in the year ending December 2023, which marks a 13.13% decrease compared to the previous year’s figure of 36,498. This drop could signal a shift toward a buyer’s market, as fewer transactions typically indicate less competition among buyers.

Modest Rise in Home Prices
Despite the decrease in sales volume, St. Louis saw a modest increase in home prices. The median sold price for homes rose by 2.04% from $245,000 in December 2022 to $250,000 in December 2023. This growth, although not steep, suggests that home values in the region continue to appreciate, offering a silver lining for homeowners looking to sell.

Price Per Square Foot Analysis
The median price per square foot (PPSF) for sold homes remained relatively stable at $173.08 in December 2023, a slight decrease compared to the median PPSF for current listings at $171.87. However, a significant point to note is the 11.02% drop in PPSF for current listings compared to the sold listings from the past 12 months, indicating a possible adjustment in market expectations.

Inventory and Market Supply Dynamics
St. Louis’s home inventory levels also present an interesting narrative. With 2,956 listings currently up for sale and 2,348 homes sold last month, the market is experiencing a supply of approximately 1.26 months. This figure represents a brisk market that favors sellers, as a supply under 6 months typically does. However, it is important to monitor whether this inventory will rise or fall in response to changing market conditions.

Days on Market: A Consistent Pace
Homes in St. Louis are selling at a consistent pace, with the median days on market holding steady at 37 days. This indicates a stable demand for homes, with properties moving from listing to sale in just over a month on average.

What This Means for You
For sellers in the St. Louis area, the market still offers a favorable environment with steady prices and a relatively quick selling period. Buyers, on the other hand, might benefit from reduced competition, though they should be mindful of potential value appreciations.

 

STL Market Report – St Louis MSA

(click on report below for complete report)

STL Market Report - St Louis MSA

 

 

St. Louis 2024 Housing Forecast: What to Expect in Home Sales and Prices

As 2024 approaches, I conducted my customary in-depth analysis of historical St. Louis real estate market data to get my projection for St. Louis home sales and prices. Home sales in the five-county St. Louis core market appear to be gradually declining, based on statistics and trends from the previous ten years, as seen in the chart below

2024 St Louis Home Sales…

The data for the 12-month period ending December 31, 2023, will be available in a few days. I anticipate that home sales will be roughly 22,600 for the year, but there will be a slight decline by the end of 2024, bringing St Louis home sales down to about 22,400. This isn’t a huge drop (0.8%), but it is a noticeable change that could give buyers in the market a bit more leeway.

2024 St Louis Home Prices…

While home prices have been on the rise, the median price per square foot is increasing at a slower rate than in previous years. I anticipate St. Louis home prices will increase by only about 1% from their 2023 peak, reaching a peak in the summer of 2024 at approximately $196/foot, and then leveling off slightly, falling to around $184/foot by December 2024. It’s important to bear in mind that this type of fluctuation is common, whether you’re buying or selling. Prices are not falling dramatically, but they’re also not rising sharply. This follows a more consistent, dependable pattern. These are the trends to watch out for in the St. Louis market in 2024 if you’re in the game.

A little CYA…

It’s worth noting that the aforementioned estimates are based on the current economic conditions and patterns. Interest rates, inflation, and unemployment are just a few of the many factors that influence the economy, and even experts (who know a lot more than me) can’t always agree on where these trends are headed. As a result, any major shifts in these areas might significantly impact the direction of the St. Louis housing market in the upcoming year.


 

St Louis 5-County Core 12-Month Home Sale and Price Trend – Past 10 Years

(click on chart for live, interactive chart)St Louis 5-County Core 12-Month Home Sale and Price Trend - Past 10 Years

St. Louis Real Estate Market Ending Year on High Note: Surge in Home Sales and Listings

In a remarkable end-of-year surge, the St. Louis real estate market has shown significant growth in both home sales and new listings, according to the latest reports below, available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®.  The week of December 17-23, 2023, marked a notable increase in accepted contracts for home sales, jumping 26% compared to the same week in 2022. The rise was led by St. Louis County, which experienced an impressive 60% increase, indicating a robust demand in this area.

Simultaneously, new listings in the St. Louis area rose by 10%, with St. Charles County, in particular, witnessing a 31% jump in new properties hitting the market followed by Jefferson County with a 20% increase in new listings over the prior year.

This increase in listings, coupled with the growth in sales, suggests a continued good real estate environment as we head into the new year.


STL Real Estate Trends Report

New Accepted Contracts In the St Louis 5-County Core Market

(click on table for current, live data)

STL Real Estate Trends Report

STL Real Estate Trends Report

New Listings In the St Louis 5-County Core Market

(click on table for current, live data)

STL Real Estate Trends Report

St. Louis Condo Sales Dip to a Nine-Year Low

For the 12-month period ended October 31, 2023, there were 3,097 condominiums sold in the St Louis 5-county core market which, as the Condo 12-Month Sales and Price Trend Chart below (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) shows, is the lowest total for 12-month sales since August 2014. The St Louis Condominium sales trend is faring slightly better than single-family homes sales are because, as I reported earlier this week, St Louis home sales have fallen to the lowest level since early 2013.

St Louis Condo prices increasing a slower pace….

As the chart at the bottom illustrates, the median price per foot for Condominiums sold in the St Louis area increased this year 8.1% from last year which, while it is a higher percentage increase than seen during the same period for homes, is a lower rate of price appreciation than the 11.0% seen in 2022 and 9.0% in 2021.


 

St Louis Condo 12-Month Sales Trend and Price Trend

(click on report for live, interactive report)St Louis Condo 12-Month Sales Trend and Price Trend

St Louis Condo Price Trends

St Louis Condo Price Trends

St. Louis Home Sales Dip to a Decade Low, Prices See Modest Uptick

For the 12-month period ended October 31, 2023, there were 22,555 homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market which, as the STL Market Report below (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) shows, is a 17.38% decline in home sales from the the prior 12-month period when there were 27,200 homes sold.  The median price of homes sold during the most recent 12-month period was $275,000, an increase of 3.777% from the prior 12-month period.

St Louis home sales trend continues to fall….

Below the market report is a STL Market Chart showing (also available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) the 12-month home sales and home price trend for the St Louis 5-County core market since 1999.  The green line on the chart depicts the 12-month sales trend for each month for the past 10-years revealing a decline in the St Louis home sales trend for the past 12-months.  The 12-month home sales trend in St Louis is now at the lowest level since April 2013.

St Louis home price trend falling as well….

The red line on our chart tracks the median price per square foot for St. Louis homes sold over each 12-month period ending in the month indicated. It’s a given that home prices ebb and flow annually, peaking typically in the early summer months before tapering off during the winter. This year, the peak median price per square foot hit $194 in July, marking a modest 2.6% climb from the peak of the previous year. To put this in perspective, the previous year’s peak was a more robust 9.9% above the peak price of 2022.


 

STL Market Report – St Louis 5-County Core Market

(click on report for live, complete report)STL Market Report - St Louis 5-County Core Market

St Louis 5-County Core Market – 12-Month Home Sales & Price Trend – Since 1999St Louis 5-County Core Market - 12-Month Home Sales & Price Trend - Since 1999

St. Louis Housing Market Trends: Navigating the Shift in Supply and Pricing

The St. Louis housing market is undergoing some noteworthy changes, according to the latest data from MORE, REALTORS®. As of today, the supply of homes for sale in St. Louis stands at 1.43 months, a slight uptick from the 1.38-month supply reported at the end of September and the highest level in over 3 years. Additionally, the median price has settled at $260,000, and nearly half (48%) of the active listings have reduced their asking price from their original figures.

A Closer Look at Pricing Trends
Two additional reports from MORE, REALTORS® offer a nuanced view of the market’s pricing dynamics:

  • October 2, 2023 Report: Homes sold during the 30-day period ending on October 2nd had a median price of $285,000 or $191 per square foot.
  • October 27, 2023 Report: Homes sold from October 3rd through October 27th had a median price of $270,000 or $185 per square foot.

These reports indicate a slight softening in home prices, which could be attributed to various factors, including seasonality.

Seasonal Impact on the Market
As we transition from fall into winter, it’s essential to acknowledge the seasonal effects on home sales and prices. Historically, the colder months tend to see a slowdown in market activity, which could explain the recent changes in pricing and supply.


St. Louis Real Estate Trends: Luxury vs. Non-Luxury Home Sales

The St. Louis real estate market is experiencing a fascinating divergence in trends between luxury and non-luxury homes. According to the latest data from MORE, REALTORS®, the market for luxury homes—those priced at $750,000 and above—is on the rise, reaching its highest level in eight months. In contrast, the market for non-luxury homes, priced below $750,000, has been on a steady decline for about two years. This article delves into these trends, referencing two illuminating charts from MORE, REALTORS®.

Luxury Home Sales on the Upswing

The first chart from MORE, REALTORS® illustrates the upward trajectory of luxury home sales in the St. Louis area. As the chart shows, for the 12-month period ended September 30, 2023, there were 1,351 luxury homes sold in the combined markets of the city and counties of St Louis and St Charles County, which is the highest 12-month trend since January of this year.


St Louis Real Estate Market Report for June 2023 with accurate data you can trust

Below is the St Louis Real Estate Market Report for June 2023 for the City and County of St Louis combined from St Louis Real Estate Search (the Official site).    You can access the full infographic, containing data for St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin Counties as well by clicking on the image below.

In the relentless tug-of-war that characterizes today’s real estate market, it’s imperative not to base your choices on misguided data!

The present property market leaves little room for errors, thanks to a deficit of listings and aggressive buyer interest. A combination of these factors has sparked not just bidding contests, but “conditions wars”, making the process exceedingly tough for many. To outshine the competition, buyers often eliminate contingencies from their bids and stretch their financial limits. Frequently, they’re ready to pay a premium beyond the property’s actual worth. As I elaborated in an earlier article, “Are Today’s Homebuyers Exorbitantly Overpaying and Setting Themselves Up for Regret?“, this strategy can be valid, as long as it’s backed by well-informed reasoning.

In order to make such informed decisions, one needs reliable data and a seasoned, professional real estate agent capable of dissecting that data and tailoring it to your specific circumstances. This is what makes me incredibly proud of our team at MORE, REALTORS®. Our representatives are experienced professionals adept at steering both buyers and sellers towards a rewarding outcome amidst the complex dynamics of the current market.

To assist our representatives and clientele, I devote substantial time to accumulating, examining, and disseminating market intelligence and data. My goal is to offer the most exact data possible, enabling shrewd, educated decision-making. Although no data set can claim absolute precision, inching as close to perfection as we can substantially boosts the probability of making prudent decisions.

Doesn’t every agent have the same data at their disposal?

It’s a reasonable assumption that all agents, particularly those affiliated with REALTORS®, can access the same information. In our region, every REALTOR® can indeed tap into the broadest and most detailed reservoir of data for the St. Louis residential real estate market — MARIS, the REALTOR® Multiple Listing System (MLS). However, merely gaining entry to this database is just the initial step. It’s similar to the internet: although nearly any data you desire is available online, the real test is in knowing where to look and identifying the most credible sources. This same notion applies to the property market data present in the MLS.

While most agents aren’t data enthusiasts and usually rely on consolidated data shared by others, our agents, to some degree, follow a similar pattern. Yet, they stand out due to their proficiency in setting parameters and producing bespoke reports for their clients using our exclusive software. Additionally, they don’t merely accept the data we deliver — they scrutinize it, cross-check it, and pinpoint any discrepancies they come across. This degree of dedication, though humbling, reflects their commitment to precision, even when dealing with data from a dependable source like our firm..

Continue reading “St Louis Real Estate Market Report for June 2023 with accurate data you can trust

St Louis 12-Month Home Sales Trend Drops to Lowest Level in over 8 Years

For the 12-month period ended June 20, 2023, there were 23,074 homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market which, as the STL Market Report below (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) shows, is nearly a 20% decline in home sales from the the prior 12-month period when there were nearly 29,000 homes sold.  The median price of homes sold during the most recent 12-month period was $270,000, an increase of 5.47% from the prior 12-month period.

St Louis home sales trend continues to fall….

Below the market report is a STL Market Chart showing (also available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) the 12-month home sales and home price trend for the St Louis 5-County core market for the past 10 years.  The green line on the chart depicts the 12-month sales trend for each month for the past 10-years revealing a decline in the St Louis home sales trend for the past 12-months.  The 12-month home sales trend in St Louis is now at the lowest level since February 2015.

St Louis home price trend falling as well….

The red line on the chart depicts the median price per square foot St Louis homes sold at for the 12-month period ending in the month shown.  Home prices are seasonal and fluctuate every year, through good markets and bad markets, peaking in early summer and hitting a low in during winter.  St Louis home prices peaked in June at $192 per square foot, an increase of just 1.6% from June of last year.  In comparison, the price increase from June 2022 to June 2023 was 11.2%.

Continue reading “St Louis 12-Month Home Sales Trend Drops to Lowest Level in over 8 Years

St Louis Real Estate Market Report – April 2023

Below is our St Louis Real Estate Market Report for April 2023 for the City and County of St Louis combined.  You can access the full infographic, containing data for St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin Counties as well by clicking on the image below.

St Louis Real Estate Report for April 2023

(click on infographic for complete report including other counties)St Louis Real Estate Report for April 2023

St Louis Area Home Sales Down Nearly 17 Percent In Past 12-Months

There were 28,500 homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market during the 12-month period ended February, 28, 2023 a decline of 16.80% from the prior 12-months when 34,256 homes were sold according to MORE REALTORS® exclusive STL Market Report below.  As the report below shows, the median price of homes sold in St Louis increased 7.62% during the same period.

While the supply of St Louis homes for sale is still historically very low, it has increased significantly over the past two years rising from under a 1-month supply to the current 1.64 month supply of homes currently active on the market in St Louis.

St Louis 5-County Core STL Market Report

(for the 12-month period ended February 28, 2023)

t Louis 5-County Core STL Market Report 

St Louis Real Estate Market Report

Below is our St Louis Real Estate Market Report for February 2023 for the City and County of St Louis combined.  You can access the full infographic, containing data for St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin Counties as well by clicking on the image below.

St Louis Real Estate Report for February 2023

(click on infographic for complete report including other counties)St Louis Real Estate Report for February 2023

St Louis Distressed Home Sales Trending Upward But Still Low

There have been a fair number of reports about the increase in distressed home sales in various markets around the country and on the national level.  However, in St Louis, distressed home sales are on the rise, they are still at levels that are historically quite low.

Distressed home sales that involve some sort of distress or other condition that would typically result in the home not selling for a normal “retail” price like it would if it were a typical listing in market ready condition with normal marketing time allowed.  The chart below shows distressed home sales in the St Lous 5-County core market over the past years and also shows the 12-month sales trend.  For our purposes, we include probate sales, short-sales, foreclosures, and bank and government owned homes as distressed sales. As the chart illustrates, the 12-month sales trend has increased for 5 consecutive months but is still at a level that is significantly lower than it has been for the bulk of the 5-year period illustrated on the chart.

St Louis 5-County Core Market Distressed Home Sale and 12-Month Trend for Past 5 Years

(click on chart for live, interactive chart with the latest data)

St Louis 5-County Core Market Distressed Home Sale and 12-Month Trend for Past 5 Years

St Louis Home Sales Trend Drops To Lowest Level In Over Seven Years

For the 12-month period ended January 31, 2023, there were 24,993 homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market which, as the STL Market Report below (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) shows, is nearly a 17% decline in home sales from the the prior 12-month period when there were over 30,000 homes sold.  The median price of homes sold during the most recent 12-month period was $266,500, an increase of 6.6% from the prior 12-month period.

St Louis home sales trend falling fast….

Below the market report is a STL Market Chart showing (also available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) the 12-month home sales and home price trend for the St Louis 5-County core market for the past 10 years.  The green line on the chart depicts the 12-month sales trend for each month for the past 10-years revealing a decline in the St Louis home sales trend for the past 16-months.  The 12-month home sales trend in St Louis is now at the lowest level (24,993 homes) since November 2015 when 12-month St Louis home sales were are 24,772.

St Louis home price trend falling as well….

The red line on the chart depicts the median price per square foot St Louis homes sold at for the 12-month period ending in the month shown.  Home prices are seasonal and fluctuate every year, through good markets and bad markets, peaking in early summer and hitting a low in during winter.  However, the decline this year, from the peak in June at $189/foot to $172 in January (nearly a 9% decline) is a much larger decline than last year when were was just a 1.7% decline in price during the same period. In 2021 the price decline during the same period was just 1.3% .

Continue reading “St Louis Home Sales Trend Drops To Lowest Level In Over Seven Years

St Louis Home Prices Fall Over 12% And Sales Fall 40% In 6-Month Period

Kind of an attention-getting headline, huh?  At least it’s not as bad as a lot of the gloom and doom headlines I’m reading today about the real estate market.  Many folks out there are predicting a total meltdown of the housing market, and our economy as a whole for that matter.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m not drinking the “there’s nothing to see here” Kool-Aid, I do believe we are in for some rough times ahead, I am just not convinced it’s going to be as bad here in St Louis as in many parts of the country.

So back to the falling St Louis home prices and sales…

As the infographic below shows, the median price on homes sold in St Louis dropped 12.7% from June to December of last year and, during the same 6-month period, St Louis home sales declined 40%.  But, “I thought you said you weren’t gloom and doom?”.  Granted, this data doesn’t sound good but remember, the residential real estate market is very seasonal.  Prices and sales go up in the spring and down in the winter every year, during good markets and bad.  So, since June is often the peak of the market in terms of sales and prices, and December or January the trough where prices and sales fall to the lowest levels, this is normal.  The question is, whether the amount home prices sales declined in the past 6-months is pretty typical? As the infographic below illustrates both the decline in price and sales were the largest declines in the past 5-years.  The decline in sales in 2018 was close to this past year and the decline in prices in 2019 was close to this past year, but 2022 saw larger declines in both.

It’s something to watch close but not time to panic yet…

While the seasonal decline now is greater than is typical, it certainly is not as bad as some markets are seeing.  The big question is what is going to happen in the next couple of months?  Typically January sees another decline in sales from December and a slight decline in price and February is about the same or sometimes starts to show an uptick in prices.  So, depending upon how things turn out this month and next we’ll have a better idea of whether we’ll see the normal recovery from the winter season or if we’ll see the market continue to deteriorate.

Continue reading “St Louis Home Prices Fall Over 12% And Sales Fall 40% In 6-Month Period

New Home Construction In Midwest During Increased During Past 12 Months

Even though the number of new home building permits in the St Louis area has been on the decline, they’re been on the increase in the midwest region of which St Louis is a part. As the chart below illustrates, for the 12-month period ended last month, there are been 2,850 building permits issued for new privately-owned housing units in the midwest region of the U.S. an increase of 3.6% from he prior 12-month period when there were 2,746 permits issued. For just the month of November 2022, there were 197 permits, down nearly 8% from November 2021 when 214 permits were issued.

New home construction starts on the rise as well…

Depicted also on the chart below is the number of new homes where construction has actually begun, referred to as “starts”.  The number of starts always tends to be lower than the number of permits issued as there are many issues that could arise that would cause a home not to be built even though a permit was issued for it.  One of those issues could be the developer or builder’s sentiment about the market which, if trending unfavorably, may cause the developer to postpone adding to inventory.  However, even though we saw builder sentiment decline every month this year, the number of new home starts in the midwest region for the most recent 12-month period increased 5% from the prior 12-month period.  There were 2,657 new home starts in the 12-month period ended last month compared with 2,523 starts during the prior 12-month period.  For just November 2022, there were 215 starts, down just one from November 2021 when there were 216 starts.

Continue reading “New Home Construction In Midwest During Increased During Past 12 Months

Pending Home Sales Drop By One-Third In Midwest But St Louis Faring Better

The National Association of REALTORS (NAR) just released its pending home sales report for October 2022 which revealed pending home sales in the U.S. were down 37% from October 2021. The Northeast market had the smallest decline in year-over-year pending home sales with a decline of 29.5% followed by the Midwest with a decline of 32.1%, the South with a decline of 38.2%.  The west region of the U.S. saw the biggest decline in pending home sales with a decline of 46.2% from October 2021 to October 2022.

The St Louis market is performing better…

While the NAR does not publish pending home sales data for St Louis, MORE, REALTORS has its exclusive STL Real Estate Trends Report.  This report shows new contracts accepted during a period so, since a pending home sale starts with a contract being accepted, this gives us a very similar caparison.  As the table below shows, New Contracts in the St Louis 5-County Core Market for October 2022 were down 24% from October 2021. This is a significantly smaller decline in sales than reported at the national level (37%) or even for the Midwest (32.1%).

St Louis 5-County Core Market – New Contracts October 2022 vs October 2021

St Louis 5-County Core Market - New Contracts October 2022 vs October 2021

St Louis Real Estate Market Update – Video

Is the St Louis real estate market going to crash?  The national news is filled lately with reports of slowing housing markets throughout the country, increasing inventories, falling sales and prices.  Some prognosticators are predicting some metro areas will see home prices fall by as much as 40 or 50 percent.  Is the St Louis real estate market on a similar trajectory??  While I can’t predict the future, I can share data to help you see where the St Louis real estate market is currently as well as where the data shows it’s headed.  

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St Louis Real Estate Market Update - Video

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St Louis Real Estate Market Report For October 2022

Below is our St Louis Real Estate Market Report for October 2022 for the City and County of St Louis combined.  You can access the full infographic, containing data for St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin Counties as well by clicking on the image below.

St Louis Real Estate Report for October 2022

(click on infographic for complete report including other counties)St Louis Real Estate Report for October 2022

Time On Market and Percentage of St Louis Listings With Reduced Prices Continues To Increase

As the infographic below illustrates, the time active listings in St Louis have been on the market is much greater than the time it took homes that closed last month to sell.  In addition, a much greater percentage of the current active listings have reduced their asking prices versus the sales that closed last month.

The most dramatic increase in days on the market was in St Charles County.   Active listings in St Charles County have been on the market a median time of 38 days, almost 5 times as long as the sales that closed in September where the median time on the market was just 8 days.  All 5 counties reported below saw the percentage of listings with a price reduction go up about the same, from twenty-something percent to forty-something percent.

Continue reading “Time On Market and Percentage of St Louis Listings With Reduced Prices Continues To Increase

St Louis Real Estate Market Report For September 2022

Below is our St Louis Real Estate Market Report for September 2022 for the City and County of St Louis combined.  You can access the full infographic, containing data for St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin Counties as well by clicking on the image below.  Worth noting and remembering is not all data is created equally nor is all of what you see reported accurate.  Given the challenging and rapidly changing economic times we are in which are having an direct impact on the St Louis housing and real estate market, now, almost more than ever, you need to be sure the data you base your real estate decisions on is accurate and the agents you are trusting to get you through the process have the knowledge, information and accurate data they need to do so.  At MORE, REALTORS® we have developed proprietary software which uses the database we have created from the REALTOR® MLS (MARIS) to produce what we believe is the most accurate and relevant data and reports for the St Louis residential real estate market.  For example, currently, there are other sources reporting (and many, many real estate agents sharing the information without verifying) that the median price for homes sold in the City and County of St Louis during September was over 6% higher than our data shown below.  Think what an impact that could have on you if you base your decision to buy or sell a home on pricing data that is over stating the value.

Oh, how do we know we’re right?  We have proof, straight from the MLS, see the image below our infographic which is a screen shot straight from the MLS showing date for closed sales during the month of September in the city and county of St Louis.  You’ll find that the median price from the MLS is $250,000, the same as our data computed, the number of sales is a little higher in the MLS (20 or just over 1%) because while about 99% of sales are sent out in “feeds” to broker websites etc (including Zillow and Realtor.com) there are a few listings that are not and the DOM (days on market, or days to sell) at 10 is very close to our 12 (this is due to us using a slightly different method to compute median for the data).

St Louis Real Estate Report for September 2022

(click on infographic for complete report including other counties)
Continue reading “St Louis Real Estate Market Report For September 2022

St Louis Home Sales Trend Lowest In 2-Years with YTD Sales 9 Percent Lower Than Last Year

There are many headlines out there talking about home sales down 20% from last year on a national level but here in St Louis we are not seeing as large of a decline in home sales.  As the chart below shows, for the 12-month period ended August 31, 2022, there were 27,891 homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market, which as the trend line (dark green) depicts is a declining trend we’ve seen for the past 11 months now.  This 12-month trend is the lowest trend since September 2020 when there were 27,572 homes sold in the prior 12-months.  However, year to date there are have been 17,480 homes sold in the St Louis area (lighter green line on the chart) which is only a little over 9% less than this time last year when there were 19,875 homes sold.

St Louis 5-County Core Market – 12-Month Home Sales Trend and YTD Home Sales

(click on chart for live, interactive chart)St Louis 5-County Core Market - 12-Month Home Sales Trend and YTD Home Sales

Mortgage Interest Rates Top 7 Percent for first time in over 20 years

Today, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 7.08% marking the first time in over 20-years the rate has gone above 7%.  Historically speaking, as the 2nd chart shows, this is not that high of an interest rate and, in fact, lower than the median rate over the past 50 years, however, it’s a very high rate based upon the the recent past.

The affect of interest rates on home prices…

Interest rates just began increasing in the past few months, rising above the 4% level in February, so it will take time to see the impact of this on home prices.  We’re beginning to see the effect in prices somewhat, particularly with the decrease of “overbids” and an increase in reduced prices on active listings, but nothing too dramatic yet.  For example, as the bottom chart shows, the median price of homes sold in St Louis in August was $280,000, a nearly 11% increase from the median price of $252,450 a year ago. Since home prices typically peak around June, they are usually lower in August than June or July.  If we examine this to see if perhaps there was a bigger decline in those months this year than last we find that last year prices dropped 3/4 of 1% from June to July and then dropped 4% from July to August, for a total decline of 4.7% from June’s peak to August.  This year, prices dropped 3.9% from June to July, then 1.7% from July to August for a total decline of 5.6%, only slightly higher than last year.  I do think we’ll see a larger impact than this, but thus far it’s not so bad.

 

Mortgage Interest Rates Based Upon the MND Rate Index

(click on chart for live, interactive chart)

Mortgage Interest Rates Based Upon the MND Rate Index

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Interest Rates 1970-Present

(click on chart for live, interactive chart)

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Interest Rates 1970-Present

St Louis 5-County Core Home Prices and Sales – Past 25 Months

(click on chart for live, interactive chart)

St Louis 5-County Core Home Prices and Sales - Past 25 Months

Year To Date Home Sales in St Louis Metro Area Down Nearly 11 Percent From Last Year

There have been 21,164 homes sold in the St Louis Metro area during the first 7-months of this year which, as the STL Market Chart below illustrates, is a decline of 10.7% from the same time last year when there were 23,709 homes sold.

2022 home sales fairly consistent with 4 out of 5 prior years…

As I stated above, St Louis YTD home sales are lagging behind last year however, last years sales appear to be the market peak and the difference, as shown below,  between current YTD sales and the years prior to last year is not as significant.

  • Through July 2020, there were 21,344 homes sold in the St Louis MSA, less than 1% more than this year.
  • Through July 2019, there were 21,702 homes sold in the St Louis MSA,  2.5% more than this year.
  • Through July 2018, there were 22,095 homes sold in the St Louis MSA, 4.4% more than this year.
  • Through July 2017, there were 21,994 homes sold in the St Louis MSA, 3.9% more than this year.

St Louis slowing home sales trend appears to increasing….

Below the chart is our STL Market Report for the St Louis metro area, which shows there were 40,171 homes sold during the 12-month period ended July 31, 2022,  a decline of nearly 6.5% from the prior year.  This, in contrast to the double-digit decline noted above for the most recent 7-months of that 12-month period indicates that the slowing home sales trend is increasing.  We’ll get a lot more clearer picture of this in the next month or two as we see what happens in the economy, interest rates, etc.

Continue reading “Year To Date Home Sales in St Louis Metro Area Down Nearly 11 Percent From Last Year

New Listings To New Contracts Ratio Increases This Month

For the first three weeks of June there were 1,475 new listings of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-county core market, according to the STL Real Estate Trends Report from MORE, REALTORS®.  During the same period, there were 1,194 new contracts written on homes for sale resulting in a new listing to new contract ratio of 1.25.  This ratio of listings to new sales is higher than it was 3 weeks ago when I shared the last update from the STL Real Estate Trends report and it was 1.05 at that time for the period reported which was the first 3 weeks of May.

It was at the end of last week that the mortgage bond market blew apart forcing mortgage interest rates up so when our new report for this week is release next Thursday we’ll see what effect that had on the market.

Continue reading “New Listings To New Contracts Ratio Increases This Month