By Dennis Norman, on July 14th, 2023 Below is the St Louis Real Estate Market Report for June 2023 for the City and County of St Louis combined from St Louis Real Estate Search (the Official site). You can access the full infographic, containing data for St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin Counties as well by clicking on the image below.
In the relentless tug-of-war that characterizes today’s real estate market, it’s imperative not to base your choices on misguided data!
The present property market leaves little room for errors, thanks to a deficit of listings and aggressive buyer interest. A combination of these factors has sparked not just bidding contests, but “conditions wars”, making the process exceedingly tough for many. To outshine the competition, buyers often eliminate contingencies from their bids and stretch their financial limits. Frequently, they’re ready to pay a premium beyond the property’s actual worth. As I elaborated in an earlier article, “Are Today’s Homebuyers Exorbitantly Overpaying and Setting Themselves Up for Regret?“, this strategy can be valid, as long as it’s backed by well-informed reasoning.
In order to make such informed decisions, one needs reliable data and a seasoned, professional real estate agent capable of dissecting that data and tailoring it to your specific circumstances. This is what makes me incredibly proud of our team at MORE, REALTORS®. Our representatives are experienced professionals adept at steering both buyers and sellers towards a rewarding outcome amidst the complex dynamics of the current market.
To assist our representatives and clientele, I devote substantial time to accumulating, examining, and disseminating market intelligence and data. My goal is to offer the most exact data possible, enabling shrewd, educated decision-making. Although no data set can claim absolute precision, inching as close to perfection as we can substantially boosts the probability of making prudent decisions.
Doesn’t every agent have the same data at their disposal?
It’s a reasonable assumption that all agents, particularly those affiliated with REALTORS®, can access the same information. In our region, every REALTOR® can indeed tap into the broadest and most detailed reservoir of data for the St. Louis residential real estate market — MARIS, the REALTOR® Multiple Listing System (MLS). However, merely gaining entry to this database is just the initial step. It’s similar to the internet: although nearly any data you desire is available online, the real test is in knowing where to look and identifying the most credible sources. This same notion applies to the property market data present in the MLS.
While most agents aren’t data enthusiasts and usually rely on consolidated data shared by others, our agents, to some degree, follow a similar pattern. Yet, they stand out due to their proficiency in setting parameters and producing bespoke reports for their clients using our exclusive software. Additionally, they don’t merely accept the data we deliver — they scrutinize it, cross-check it, and pinpoint any discrepancies they come across. This degree of dedication, though humbling, reflects their commitment to precision, even when dealing with data from a dependable source like our firm..
Continue reading “St Louis Real Estate Market Report for June 2023 with accurate data you can trust“
By Dennis Norman, on July 5th, 2023 For the 12-month period ended June 20, 2023, there were 23,074 homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market which, as the STL Market Report below (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) shows, is nearly a 20% decline in home sales from the the prior 12-month period when there were nearly 29,000 homes sold. The median price of homes sold during the most recent 12-month period was $270,000, an increase of 5.47% from the prior 12-month period.
St Louis home sales trend continues to fall….
Below the market report is a STL Market Chart showing (also available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) the 12-month home sales and home price trend for the St Louis 5-County core market for the past 10 years. The green line on the chart depicts the 12-month sales trend for each month for the past 10-years revealing a decline in the St Louis home sales trend for the past 12-months. The 12-month home sales trend in St Louis is now at the lowest level since February 2015.
St Louis home price trend falling as well….
The red line on the chart depicts the median price per square foot St Louis homes sold at for the 12-month period ending in the month shown. Home prices are seasonal and fluctuate every year, through good markets and bad markets, peaking in early summer and hitting a low in during winter. St Louis home prices peaked in June at $192 per square foot, an increase of just 1.6% from June of last year. In comparison, the price increase from June 2022 to June 2023 was 11.2%.
Continue reading “St Louis 12-Month Home Sales Trend Drops to Lowest Level in over 8 Years“
By Dennis Norman, on May 12th, 2023 Below is our St Louis Real Estate Market Report for April 2023 for the City and County of St Louis combined. You can access the full infographic, containing data for St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin Counties as well by clicking on the image below.
St Louis Real Estate Report for April 2023
(click on infographic for complete report including other counties)
By Dennis Norman, on March 17th, 2023 There were 28,500 homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market during the 12-month period ended February, 28, 2023 a decline of 16.80% from the prior 12-months when 34,256 homes were sold according to MORE REALTORS® exclusive STL Market Report below. As the report below shows, the median price of homes sold in St Louis increased 7.62% during the same period.
While the supply of St Louis homes for sale is still historically very low, it has increased significantly over the past two years rising from under a 1-month supply to the current 1.64 month supply of homes currently active on the market in St Louis.
St Louis 5-County Core STL Market Report
(for the 12-month period ended February 28, 2023)
By Dennis Norman, on March 13th, 2023 Below is our St Louis Real Estate Market Report for February 2023 for the City and County of St Louis combined. You can access the full infographic, containing data for St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin Counties as well by clicking on the image below.
St Louis Real Estate Report for February 2023
(click on infographic for complete report including other counties)
By Dennis Norman, on February 21st, 2023 There have been a fair number of reports about the increase in distressed home sales in various markets around the country and on the national level. However, in St Louis, distressed home sales are on the rise, they are still at levels that are historically quite low.
Distressed home sales that involve some sort of distress or other condition that would typically result in the home not selling for a normal “retail” price like it would if it were a typical listing in market ready condition with normal marketing time allowed. The chart below shows distressed home sales in the St Lous 5-County core market over the past years and also shows the 12-month sales trend. For our purposes, we include probate sales, short-sales, foreclosures, and bank and government owned homes as distressed sales. As the chart illustrates, the 12-month sales trend has increased for 5 consecutive months but is still at a level that is significantly lower than it has been for the bulk of the 5-year period illustrated on the chart.
St Louis 5-County Core Market Distressed Home Sale and 12-Month Trend for Past 5 Years
(click on chart for live, interactive chart with the latest data)
By Dennis Norman, on February 5th, 2023 For the 12-month period ended January 31, 2023, there were 24,993 homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market which, as the STL Market Report below (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) shows, is nearly a 17% decline in home sales from the the prior 12-month period when there were over 30,000 homes sold. The median price of homes sold during the most recent 12-month period was $266,500, an increase of 6.6% from the prior 12-month period.
St Louis home sales trend falling fast….
Below the market report is a STL Market Chart showing (also available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) the 12-month home sales and home price trend for the St Louis 5-County core market for the past 10 years. The green line on the chart depicts the 12-month sales trend for each month for the past 10-years revealing a decline in the St Louis home sales trend for the past 16-months. The 12-month home sales trend in St Louis is now at the lowest level (24,993 homes) since November 2015 when 12-month St Louis home sales were are 24,772.
St Louis home price trend falling as well….
The red line on the chart depicts the median price per square foot St Louis homes sold at for the 12-month period ending in the month shown. Home prices are seasonal and fluctuate every year, through good markets and bad markets, peaking in early summer and hitting a low in during winter. However, the decline this year, from the peak in June at $189/foot to $172 in January (nearly a 9% decline) is a much larger decline than last year when were was just a 1.7% decline in price during the same period. In 2021 the price decline during the same period was just 1.3% .
Continue reading “St Louis Home Sales Trend Drops To Lowest Level In Over Seven Years“
By Dennis Norman, on January 6th, 2023 Kind of an attention-getting headline, huh? At least it’s not as bad as a lot of the gloom and doom headlines I’m reading today about the real estate market. Many folks out there are predicting a total meltdown of the housing market, and our economy as a whole for that matter. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not drinking the “there’s nothing to see here” Kool-Aid, I do believe we are in for some rough times ahead, I am just not convinced it’s going to be as bad here in St Louis as in many parts of the country.
So back to the falling St Louis home prices and sales…
As the infographic below shows, the median price on homes sold in St Louis dropped 12.7% from June to December of last year and, during the same 6-month period, St Louis home sales declined 40%. But, “I thought you said you weren’t gloom and doom?”. Granted, this data doesn’t sound good but remember, the residential real estate market is very seasonal. Prices and sales go up in the spring and down in the winter every year, during good markets and bad. So, since June is often the peak of the market in terms of sales and prices, and December or January the trough where prices and sales fall to the lowest levels, this is normal. The question is, whether the amount home prices sales declined in the past 6-months is pretty typical? As the infographic below illustrates both the decline in price and sales were the largest declines in the past 5-years. The decline in sales in 2018 was close to this past year and the decline in prices in 2019 was close to this past year, but 2022 saw larger declines in both.
It’s something to watch close but not time to panic yet…
While the seasonal decline now is greater than is typical, it certainly is not as bad as some markets are seeing. The big question is what is going to happen in the next couple of months? Typically January sees another decline in sales from December and a slight decline in price and February is about the same or sometimes starts to show an uptick in prices. So, depending upon how things turn out this month and next we’ll have a better idea of whether we’ll see the normal recovery from the winter season or if we’ll see the market continue to deteriorate.
Continue reading “St Louis Home Prices Fall Over 12% And Sales Fall 40% In 6-Month Period“
By Dennis Norman, on December 21st, 2022 Even though the number of new home building permits in the St Louis area has been on the decline, they’re been on the increase in the midwest region of which St Louis is a part. As the chart below illustrates, for the 12-month period ended last month, there are been 2,850 building permits issued for new privately-owned housing units in the midwest region of the U.S. an increase of 3.6% from he prior 12-month period when there were 2,746 permits issued. For just the month of November 2022, there were 197 permits, down nearly 8% from November 2021 when 214 permits were issued.
New home construction starts on the rise as well…
Depicted also on the chart below is the number of new homes where construction has actually begun, referred to as “starts”. The number of starts always tends to be lower than the number of permits issued as there are many issues that could arise that would cause a home not to be built even though a permit was issued for it. One of those issues could be the developer or builder’s sentiment about the market which, if trending unfavorably, may cause the developer to postpone adding to inventory. However, even though we saw builder sentiment decline every month this year, the number of new home starts in the midwest region for the most recent 12-month period increased 5% from the prior 12-month period. There were 2,657 new home starts in the 12-month period ended last month compared with 2,523 starts during the prior 12-month period. For just November 2022, there were 215 starts, down just one from November 2021 when there were 216 starts.
Continue reading “New Home Construction In Midwest During Increased During Past 12 Months“
By Dennis Norman, on November 30th, 2022 The National Association of REALTORS (NAR) just released its pending home sales report for October 2022 which revealed pending home sales in the U.S. were down 37% from October 2021. The Northeast market had the smallest decline in year-over-year pending home sales with a decline of 29.5% followed by the Midwest with a decline of 32.1%, the South with a decline of 38.2%. The west region of the U.S. saw the biggest decline in pending home sales with a decline of 46.2% from October 2021 to October 2022.
The St Louis market is performing better…
While the NAR does not publish pending home sales data for St Louis, MORE, REALTORS has its exclusive STL Real Estate Trends Report. This report shows new contracts accepted during a period so, since a pending home sale starts with a contract being accepted, this gives us a very similar caparison. As the table below shows, New Contracts in the St Louis 5-County Core Market for October 2022 were down 24% from October 2021. This is a significantly smaller decline in sales than reported at the national level (37%) or even for the Midwest (32.1%).
St Louis 5-County Core Market – New Contracts October 2022 vs October 2021
By Dennis Norman, on November 23rd, 2022 Is the St Louis real estate market going to crash? The national news is filled lately with reports of slowing housing markets throughout the country, increasing inventories, falling sales and prices. Some prognosticators are predicting some metro areas will see home prices fall by as much as 40 or 50 percent. Is the St Louis real estate market on a similar trajectory?? While I can’t predict the future, I can share data to help you see where the St Louis real estate market is currently as well as where the data shows it’s headed.
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By Dennis Norman, on November 11th, 2022 Below is our St Louis Real Estate Market Report for October 2022 for the City and County of St Louis combined. You can access the full infographic, containing data for St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin Counties as well by clicking on the image below.
St Louis Real Estate Report for October 2022
(click on infographic for complete report including other counties)
By Dennis Norman, on October 21st, 2022 As the infographic below illustrates, the time active listings in St Louis have been on the market is much greater than the time it took homes that closed last month to sell. In addition, a much greater percentage of the current active listings have reduced their asking prices versus the sales that closed last month.
The most dramatic increase in days on the market was in St Charles County. Active listings in St Charles County have been on the market a median time of 38 days, almost 5 times as long as the sales that closed in September where the median time on the market was just 8 days. All 5 counties reported below saw the percentage of listings with a price reduction go up about the same, from twenty-something percent to forty-something percent.
Continue reading “Time On Market and Percentage of St Louis Listings With Reduced Prices Continues To Increase“
By Dennis Norman, on October 11th, 2022 Below is our St Louis Real Estate Market Report for September 2022 for the City and County of St Louis combined. You can access the full infographic, containing data for St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin Counties as well by clicking on the image below. Worth noting and remembering is not all data is created equally nor is all of what you see reported accurate. Given the challenging and rapidly changing economic times we are in which are having an direct impact on the St Louis housing and real estate market, now, almost more than ever, you need to be sure the data you base your real estate decisions on is accurate and the agents you are trusting to get you through the process have the knowledge, information and accurate data they need to do so. At MORE, REALTORS® we have developed proprietary software which uses the database we have created from the REALTOR® MLS (MARIS) to produce what we believe is the most accurate and relevant data and reports for the St Louis residential real estate market. For example, currently, there are other sources reporting (and many, many real estate agents sharing the information without verifying) that the median price for homes sold in the City and County of St Louis during September was over 6% higher than our data shown below. Think what an impact that could have on you if you base your decision to buy or sell a home on pricing data that is over stating the value.
Oh, how do we know we’re right? We have proof, straight from the MLS, see the image below our infographic which is a screen shot straight from the MLS showing date for closed sales during the month of September in the city and county of St Louis. You’ll find that the median price from the MLS is $250,000, the same as our data computed, the number of sales is a little higher in the MLS (20 or just over 1%) because while about 99% of sales are sent out in “feeds” to broker websites etc (including Zillow and Realtor.com) there are a few listings that are not and the DOM (days on market, or days to sell) at 10 is very close to our 12 (this is due to us using a slightly different method to compute median for the data).
St Louis Real Estate Report for September 2022
(click on infographic for complete report including other counties) Continue reading “St Louis Real Estate Market Report For September 2022“
By Dennis Norman, on September 28th, 2022 There are many headlines out there talking about home sales down 20% from last year on a national level but here in St Louis we are not seeing as large of a decline in home sales. As the chart below shows, for the 12-month period ended August 31, 2022, there were 27,891 homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market, which as the trend line (dark green) depicts is a declining trend we’ve seen for the past 11 months now. This 12-month trend is the lowest trend since September 2020 when there were 27,572 homes sold in the prior 12-months. However, year to date there are have been 17,480 homes sold in the St Louis area (lighter green line on the chart) which is only a little over 9% less than this time last year when there were 19,875 homes sold.
St Louis 5-County Core Market – 12-Month Home Sales Trend and YTD Home Sales
(click on chart for live, interactive chart)
By Dennis Norman, on September 27th, 2022 Today, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 7.08% marking the first time in over 20-years the rate has gone above 7%. Historically speaking, as the 2nd chart shows, this is not that high of an interest rate and, in fact, lower than the median rate over the past 50 years, however, it’s a very high rate based upon the the recent past.
The affect of interest rates on home prices…
Interest rates just began increasing in the past few months, rising above the 4% level in February, so it will take time to see the impact of this on home prices. We’re beginning to see the effect in prices somewhat, particularly with the decrease of “overbids” and an increase in reduced prices on active listings, but nothing too dramatic yet. For example, as the bottom chart shows, the median price of homes sold in St Louis in August was $280,000, a nearly 11% increase from the median price of $252,450 a year ago. Since home prices typically peak around June, they are usually lower in August than June or July. If we examine this to see if perhaps there was a bigger decline in those months this year than last we find that last year prices dropped 3/4 of 1% from June to July and then dropped 4% from July to August, for a total decline of 4.7% from June’s peak to August. This year, prices dropped 3.9% from June to July, then 1.7% from July to August for a total decline of 5.6%, only slightly higher than last year. I do think we’ll see a larger impact than this, but thus far it’s not so bad.
Mortgage Interest Rates Based Upon the MND Rate Index
(click on chart for live, interactive chart)
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Interest Rates 1970-Present
(click on chart for live, interactive chart)
St Louis 5-County Core Home Prices and Sales – Past 25 Months
(click on chart for live, interactive chart)
By Dennis Norman, on August 25th, 2022 There have been 21,164 homes sold in the St Louis Metro area during the first 7-months of this year which, as the STL Market Chart below illustrates, is a decline of 10.7% from the same time last year when there were 23,709 homes sold.
2022 home sales fairly consistent with 4 out of 5 prior years…
As I stated above, St Louis YTD home sales are lagging behind last year however, last years sales appear to be the market peak and the difference, as shown below, between current YTD sales and the years prior to last year is not as significant.
- Through July 2020, there were 21,344 homes sold in the St Louis MSA, less than 1% more than this year.
- Through July 2019, there were 21,702 homes sold in the St Louis MSA, 2.5% more than this year.
- Through July 2018, there were 22,095 homes sold in the St Louis MSA, 4.4% more than this year.
- Through July 2017, there were 21,994 homes sold in the St Louis MSA, 3.9% more than this year.
St Louis slowing home sales trend appears to increasing….
Below the chart is our STL Market Report for the St Louis metro area, which shows there were 40,171 homes sold during the 12-month period ended July 31, 2022, a decline of nearly 6.5% from the prior year. This, in contrast to the double-digit decline noted above for the most recent 7-months of that 12-month period indicates that the slowing home sales trend is increasing. We’ll get a lot more clearer picture of this in the next month or two as we see what happens in the economy, interest rates, etc.
Continue reading “Year To Date Home Sales in St Louis Metro Area Down Nearly 11 Percent From Last Year“
By Dennis Norman, on June 16th, 2022 For the first three weeks of June there were 1,475 new listings of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-county core market, according to the STL Real Estate Trends Report from MORE, REALTORS®. During the same period, there were 1,194 new contracts written on homes for sale resulting in a new listing to new contract ratio of 1.25. This ratio of listings to new sales is higher than it was 3 weeks ago when I shared the last update from the STL Real Estate Trends report and it was 1.05 at that time for the period reported which was the first 3 weeks of May.
It was at the end of last week that the mortgage bond market blew apart forcing mortgage interest rates up so when our new report for this week is release next Thursday we’ll see what effect that had on the market.
Continue reading “New Listings To New Contracts Ratio Increases This Month“
By Dennis Norman, on June 12th, 2022 There have been 9,645 homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market during the first 5-months of this year which, as the STL Market Chart below illustrates, is a decline of 8.8% from the same time last year when there were 10,579 homes sold.
2022 home sales outpacing 2020…
While this years St Louis home sales are lagging behind last years, as the chart below also shows, 2022 YTD home sales is 2.8% higher than in 2020 when there were 9,382 YTD home sales.
$1 Million+ home sales going strong…
The bottom chart shows there have been 189 one-million dollar+ homes sold in St Louis year-to-date through May 31st, a slight increase over last year when there were 187 homes sold during the period. This years $1,000,000+ home sales are 89% higher than they were during the period in 2020.
Continue reading “St Louis YTD Home Sales Down Nearly Nine Percent From Last Year“
By Dennis Norman, on June 10th, 2022 There were 5,138 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended April 30, 2022, a decrease of 9.69% from the same period a year ago when there were 5,138 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). Four of the seven counties covered in the report saw a double-digit decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago.
St Louis New Home Building Permits -April 2022
By Dennis Norman, on May 26th, 2022 The pending home sales index from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) was released showing the midwest region as the only region that had an increase from March to April. According to the NAR report below, the pending home sales index for the midwest increased 6.6% from March to April while declining 3.9% for the nation as a whole. As the table below shows, all while all four regions in the U.S. saw a decline in the pending home sales index from a year ago, the midwest fared the best again showing only a 2.8% decline while the other regions all saw a double-digit decline.
National Association of REALTORS®
Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)
By Dennis Norman, on May 26th, 2022 For the first three weeks of May there were 2,115 new listings of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-county core market, according to the STL Real Estate Trends Report from MORE, REALTORS®. During the same period, there were 2,019 new contracts written on homes for sale resulting in a new listing to new contract ratio of 1.05. This is pretty consistent with the recent trend with new listings slightly outpacing new sales. As the tables at the bottom show, for April there were 3,470 new listings and 3,269 new contracts written for a new listing to new contract ratio of 1.06.
Continue reading “St Louis New Listings to New Contracts Trend Remains Steady“
By Dennis Norman, on May 9th, 2022 There have been a lot of reports over the past month about rising interest rates (mortgage rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 5.27% last week) as well as rising inflation rates (8.5% in March) and the effect these things will have on the housing market. It’s no doubt they will have some affect on home prices and sales and I have been watching the data on St Louis home prices and sales closely and so far there does not appear to be much impact.
St Louis home sales increase in April from March…
There are two ways we analyze home sales at MORE, REALTORS®; the traditional manner, which is what almost all public reports are based upon, closed sales (which are really indicative of what the market was like 1-2 months previously since that is when the contracts were typically written) and then by use of our STL Real Estate Trends Report, which gives us a better idea of the current activity. Our trends report shows the number of new contracts written on listings, so current sales activity as well as the number of new listings entering the market. The good news is, when looking at St Louis home sales activity for April, both closed sales and newly written contracts increased from the month before.
As our chart below shows, there were 2,134 homes sold in St Louis (5-county core market) during April, a 6.4% increase from March when there were 2,005 homes sold. As the STL Real Estate Trends Report shows, there were 3,279 new contracts written on homes during April in the St Louis 5-county core market, an increase of 5% from the prior month when there were 3,124 contracts written.
Continue reading “St Louis Home Sales Doing Well In Spite of Rising Interest Rates & Inflation“
By Dennis Norman, on April 29th, 2022 Last week there were 551 new contracts written for the sale of listings in the St Louis 5-county core market down over thirty-six percent (31.3%) from the week before when there were 802 new contracts written, according to the STL Real Estate Trends Report, exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®. The new sales activity last week was down even more (nearly 36%) from the same week a year ago when there were 851 new contracts written on listings. There is no doubt this is the result of mortgage interest rates which have nearly doubled in the last 15 months.
New listings on the other hand increased last week to 851 from 618 the week before. The new listing activity is pretty much in line with the same week a year ago when there were 858 new listings. If this trend continues the listing supply will likely increase significantly. Given that the for the 5-county core market its been under 1 month for a long time, it can afford to increase some.
The current week will be very telling. When we see data next week from this week, if the numbers are similar to what we saw last week, it’s a likely indicator of a market shift to some extent. Time will tell..
Continue reading “New Sales Last Week Declined Over Thirty Percent From The Week Before“
By Dennis Norman, on April 19th, 2022 Even with the high rate of inflation, rising interest rates and general unrest in the economy, during the past two weeks there were more new contracts written on listings than there were new listings. According to the STL Real Estate Trends Report, exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®, during the last two weeks there were 1,496 new contracts accepted on listings in the St Louis 5-County core market while there were 1,432 new listings during the same period. While there were only 4.5% more sales than listings, given the fact we are already in a low-inventory market, this is fairly significant.
STL Real Estate Trends Report
(click on report for current report)
 
By Dennis Norman, on April 15th, 2022 Yesterday, I wrote an article addressing the high rate of inflation just reported and its impact on the St Louis housing market. In it, I promised to take a deeper look into the effect of the current events related to the economy on St Louis home prices which I will do in this article.
Before I go further, I should mention I’m not an economist nor a fortune teller. I am, however, a real estate broker and data nerd that has spent over 40 years in the St Louis real estate industry. I try my best to use my knowledge and experience to anticipate changes in the market and use this to help our agents and clients use this information to their advantage.
History always repeats itself..
I find the above old adage to be pretty accurate when it comes to the real estate market. Therefore, in trying to get my head around what impact a high inflation rate may have on home prices, I started by going back to prior periods of high inflation rates.
The first chart below shows the rate of inflation, interest rates, and the St Louis home price index. I’ve made some notes on it to show prior inflationary periods and the effect on home prices. The first period, the early 80s was much worse than today as inflation was higher and interest rates were in the stratosphere hitting 18%. The more recent period around 2007-2009 was not as severe and therefore the impact on home prices was not as dramatic as the former either. As you can see on the far right side of the chart, home prices have increased in the past several months at a sharp rate with the change from a year ago being greater than the last inflationary period but not as great as the one from the early ’80s.
The next chart shows the relationship between home prices and rent. When home prices outpace rent, home prices decline, when rent outpaces home prices, prices rise. As the chart shows, these two lines have converged indicating a reasonable balance between home prices and rent.
During the period of 2007 – 2011 home prices fell over 17% during a four year period before finally bottoming out.
Today is different though…
Continue reading “How Much Will St Louis Home Prices Be Impacted By Inflation?“
By Dennis Norman, on January 14th, 2022 The home sales trend in St Louis is easing with 29,778 homes being sold in the St Louis 5-county core market during the 12-month period ended December 31, 2021, according to the chart below provided by MORE, REALTORS®. This 12-month rate of St Louis home sales has declined for the 3rd month in a row after peaking at 30,225 homes sold in the 12-month period ended September 30, 2021.
Leading indicator Reports Show a Downturn in Home Sales as well…
The STL Real Estate Trends Report, below the chart, shows new contracts written on listings for the most recent week reported, compared with the same week last year. As the report shows, contracts written during the most recent week were down 23% from the same week a year ago, with all 5 counties reported showing a double digit decline. Franklin County saw the biggest drop at 34% followed by St Louis City witha. 31% decline.
Continue reading “St Louis Home Sales Trend Declining“
By Dennis Norman, on January 12th, 2022 As the STL Market Report (available exclusively from MORE, REATLORS®) below illustrates, there were 30,197 homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market during 2021, an increase of 3.86% from 2020 when there were 29,075 homes sold. The median sales price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market was $250,000 during 2021, an increase of 9.17% from 2020 when the median price of homes sold in St Louis was $229,000. The 5-county core St Louis market is comprised of the city and county of St Louis, along with the counties of Jefferson, Franklin, and St Charles. The St Louis core market is responsible for over 7y0% of all homes sold in the 17-county St Louis MSA market.
Housing inventory remains low…
As the last row of the report shows, there is still just a 0.6 month supply of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-county core market and the median time on the market is 64 days.
Continue reading “St Louis Home Sales in 2021 Tops Year Before By Nearly 4 Percent – Prices Up Over 9 Percent“
By Dennis Norman, on November 26th, 2021 New sales of listings (an accepted offer) in St Louis in November are outpacing new listings with 1.06 new sales for every 1 new listing. As the leading indicator reports below illustrate (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®), for the first 3 weeks in November, there have been 2,139 new sales of listings and 2,026 new listings. At the same time a year ago, new sales outpaced new listings at 1.24 to 1, so the current trend is down 15%.
Worth noting in the data is that new sales of St Louis homes in the first three weeks of November 2021 are up 4.5% from the same period a year ago, new listings for the same period this year are up 23% from a year ago. This is a trend worth watching and if it continues, could help with the low inventory problem that has made the St Louis real estate market a brutal market for home buyers for the past couple of years.
Continue reading “St Louis New Contracts On Listings Outpacing New Listings But By 15 Percent Less Than Last Year“
By Dennis Norman, on November 14th, 2021 In spite of the challenges of a low-inventory market as well as the threat of inflationary pressure on the economy, St Louis home sales still remain strong. As the infographic below shows (exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®) year-to-date home sales through October of this year are outpacing last year by over 5% and the prior 3 years as well by an even larger margin!
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