Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Census Bureau released new home sales data for July 2011 showing a decrease of 0.7 percent from the month before, and an increase of 6.8 percent from a year ago. The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for July was 298,000 homes, down from an adjusted rate of 300,000 the month before and is a rate that if we finish 2011 at will make 2011 new home sales the lowest since the Commerce Department began keeping track of sales in 1963. Continue reading “New home sales drop again in July; 2011 new home sales continue on track to be worst year ever“
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In 1959 the census bureau first started keeping track of new home construction activity and reported that there were 1.5 million new homes started that year. In 2005 a record high 1.7 million new homes were started and in 2009 a record low 445,100 new homes. In 2010 there was a little improvement as there were 471,200 new homes started and things were looking up a bit, however, unless something changes dramatically, 2011 will hit a new record low of new home starts. The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued their report on New Residential Construction for July 2011 showing a very slight increase in single-family home building permits from the month before (0.5 percent), and a 1.2 percent decrease in new home starts compared to the year before. Continue reading “New Home Construction On Pace For Record Low in 2011“
The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued their report on New Residential Construction for June 2011 showing a very slight increase in single-family home building permits from the month before (0.2 percent), and a 9.4 percent increase in new home starts compared to the month before. Continue reading “New home permits and starts increase in May; New home shortage coming?“
The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for May was 319,000 homes, down from 326,000 the month before. The supply of new homes on the market decreased from an adjusted 6.3 month supply the month before to a 6.2 month supply in May. The median new home price increased for the month to $222,600, a 2.6 percent increase from a revised median price of $217,000 the month before and a decrease of 3.4 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “New home sales decline in May; Up over 15 percent from year before“
The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued their report on New Residential Construction for May 2011 showing a 2.5 percent increase in single-family home building permits from the month before, and a 3.7 percent increase in new home starts compared to the month before. Continue reading “New home construction increases in May; outpacing new home sales by 60 percent“
The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for April was 323,000 homes. The supply of new homes on the market decreased from an adjusted 7.2 month supply the month before to a 6.5 month supply in April. The median new home price increased for the month to $217,900, a 1.6 percent increase from a revised median price of $214,500 the month before and an increase of 4.6 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “New home sales and prices increase in April; still down over 23 percent from a year ago“
The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued their report on New Residential Construction for April 2011 showing a 1.8 percent decrease in single-family home building permits from the month before, and a 5.1 percent decrease in new home starts compared to the month before. Continue reading “New Home Construction Declines in April; No Recovery in Site for Builders“
The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for March was 300,000 homes. The supply of new homes on the market decreased from an adjusted 8.2 month supply the month before to a 7.3 month supply in March. The median new home price increased for the month to $213,800, a 2.9 percent increase from a revised median price of $207,700 the month before and a decrease of 4.9 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “New home sales and prices increase in March“
The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued their report on New Residential Construction for March 2011 showing a 5.7 percent increase in single-family home building permits from the month before, and a 7.7 percent increase in new home starts compared to the month before. This comes on the heels of new home construction sinking to a 25 year low last month. Continue reading “New Home Construction Activity Increases in March“
The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for February was 250,000 homes. The supply of new homes on the market increased from an adjusted 7.4 month supply the month before to a 8.9 month supply in February. The median new home price decreased for the month to $202,100, a 13.9 percent decrease from a revised median price of $234,800 the month before and a decrease of 8.9 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “New home sales plummet in February, prices fall as well“
The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for February 2011 showing a 9.3 percent decrease in single-family home building permits from January, and a 27.0 percent decrease in new home starts compared to the year before. Continue reading “New home construction sinks to 25 year low“
The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for January was 284,000 homes. The supply of new homes on the market increased from an adjusted 7.0 month supply in December to a 7.9 month supply in January. The median new home price decreased for the month to $230,600 a 1.8 percent decrease from a revised median price of $235,000 the month before and an increase of 5.7 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “New home sales fall in January…down over 18 percent from a year ago“
The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for January 2011 showing a 4.8 percent decrease in single-family home building permits from December, and a 1.0 percent decrease in new home starts compared to the month before. Continue reading “New home construction starts off 2011 with a ‘fizzle’“
The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for December was 329,000 homes, a 17.5 percent increase from November’s revised rate of 280,000 homes. The supply of new homes on the market decreased from an adjusted 8.4 month supply in November to a 6.9 month supply in December. The median new home price increased for the month to $241,500 whopping 12.0 percent increase from $215,500 the month before and an increase of 8.5 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “New home sales close out 2010 on the rise; predicting increased sales in 2011“
The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for December 2010 showing a 5.5 percent increase in single-family home building permits from November, but a 9.0 percent decrease in new home starts compared to the month before. Continue reading “New home starts drop in December; down 14 percent from year before“
The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for November was 290,000 homes, a 5.5 percent increase from October’s revised rate of 275,000 homes. The supply of new homes on the market decreased from an adjusted 8.8 month supply in October to a 8.2 month supply in November. The median new home price increased for the month to $213,000 from $197,200 the month before and down from $218,800 a year ago. Continue reading “New home sales and prices increase in November“
The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for October was 283,000 homes, a 8.1 percent decrease from Septbmer’s rate of 308,000 homes. The supply of new homes on the market increase from an adjusted 7.9 month supply in September to a 8.6 month supply in October. The median new home price decreased for the month to $194,900 from $226,300 the month before and down from $215,100 a year ago. Continue reading “New home sales fall in October; Down 30 percent from year before“
The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for October 2010 showing a slight increase in single-family home building permits and a small decrease in new home starts compared to the month before. Continue reading “October New Home Construction: Permits Up, Starts Down“ Dennis Norman Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Census Bureau released new home sales data for September 2010 showing an increase of 6.6 percent from the month before, but a decrease of 21.5 percent from a year ago.
The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for September 2010 showing a slight increase in single-family home building permits and an increase in new home starts compared to the month before. Continue reading “New home construction increases slightly in September; Still greatly outpaces sales“
 Dennis Norman I saw an interesting tidbit that came from the US Census Bureau that shows just how much things have changed in the real estate world in the past 60+ years in the U.S. The piece I saw was from the census bureau’s “Profile America” series and discussed one of the first communities built in our country by a real estate developer back in 1947. The place was the town of Levittown, on New York’s Long Island and aptly named for the developers, William and Alfred Levitt. Eventually the town contained more than 17,000 Cape Code and ranch style homes that soldiers returning from World War II snapped up…..apparently there was a housing shortage at the time (oh what I wouldn’t give for another housing shortage :). Continue reading “The country’s first home developer“ Dennis Norman Last month I reported that July’s new home sales rate of 276,000 homes was the lowest rate on record. Subsequently the Commerce Department revised July and changed the sales rate to 288,000 homes raising July to the second-lowest home sales rate on record. Today, the numbers for August came out and they are no better….the new home sales rate for August is being reported by the Commerce Department as 288,000 homes, the same as July. Continue reading “No Improvement in New Home Sales in August“
The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for August 2010 showing a decrease in single-family home building permits and an increase in new home starts compared to the month before. Continue reading “New home construction continues to outpace new home sales; look for inventory to grow“ Dennis Norman The good news is May’s new home sales rate of 267,000, which was the lowest sales rate on record, was revised upward to 281,000. The bad news is June’s sales rate of 330,000 was revised downward to 315,000 and now new home sales for July were reported at 276,000 the new lowest rate on record. Due to the dismal sales, the inventory of new homes on the market increased from an 8 month supply in June to a 9.1 month supply in July. Continue reading “New Home Sales In July Drop to All-Time Low“
The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for July 2010 showing a decrease in single-family home building permits and a decrease in new home starts from June. Continue reading “New Home Permits and Construction Drop in July; Still outpacing new home sales though“ Dennis Norman Yes, the headline is correct….New home sales in June were up 23 percent from May, but unfortunately the revised May annual new home sales rate of 267,000 was the lowest rate of sale on record therefore even after a 23.6 percent increase it only brought June up to 330,000 new homes, a rate that is now the second lowest new home sales rate on record. June’s new home sales rate is 16.7 percent below a year ago. There is some good news in the report; the inventory of new homes (seasonally adjusted) at the end of June is 7.6 months, a 20.8 percent decrease from May’s revised inventory of 9.5 months and is a 10.6 percent decrease from June 2009 when the inventory was 8.5 months. My Mantra As has been my long-running mantra, I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers and “rate” of sales. Why, for one I can’t figure out how in the world they compute the numbers. Second, I just don’t think discussing Here is the raw data, the ACTUAL new homes sold- no fluff, no “adjusting”
My prediction for 2010 I’m encouraged by indications of some price stability we are seeing as well as decreasing inventory of new homes. I’m concerned about the new home permits and starts as they appear to be greatly outpacing sales and could lead to increased inventories and I’m also concerned about the underlying economy and general anemic behavior of the real estate market. Clearly this market is not going to fix itself overnight, nor this year even. However, having said that, I’m going to stick with, what I think is perhaps somewhat optimistic, prediction of 336,600 – 355,000 new home sales in 2010.
The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for June 2010 showing a decrease in building permits and a decrease in new home starts from May. The report shows the following:
As I say every month, we need to remember that all the numbers above are “seasonally adjusted” annual rates and the year over year comparisons are just comparing the numbers for June 2010 versus June 2009. Another way I like to look at where things stand is to simply look at the year to date data; actual numbers, not seasonally adjusted, compared to last years ytd numbers at this same time. I think this may give a little better comparison so those numbers are below:
Let’s do one of my favorite things and look at the raw numbers and not seasonally-adjusted numbers to compare construction activity to sales:
As expected, building permits and starts have dropped after the temporary spike upward which was the result of home-buyers rushing tobeat the tax-credit deadline of April 30th. A concern of mine however is that new home starts and permits continue to outpace new home sales in both YTD numbers as well as in the prior 12 month period as I have shown above. Replenishing inventory of new homes would make sense if the underlying real estate market was showing some solid signs of recovery and growth but unfortunately it is not so I’m afraid if this trend continues it is going to lead to an over-supply of new homes again which will not be good.
Dennis Norman Less Is More Over the past decade or so it seems everything has gotten “super-sized” to the point of absurdity in my opinion. Therefore I find it refreshing to see that, according to the “Home Trends 2010” report by the Real Estate Buyer’s Agent Council, home buyers are scaling down both in size and in features. Perhaps the past couple of years has humbled many of us and given us a different perspective on materialistic things? Anyway, before I go off on a tangent, here are highlights from the Home Trends report:
The ten most likely features that builders will include in a new homes:
New homes are no doubt being built with affordability and efficiency in mind. Nonetheless buyers seem unwilling to give up master bedroom suites with nice master baths, although some of the “super-size” stuff is gone, such as multiple shower heads. What else is getting cut? According to the report, builders say that an outdoor kitchen is the first to go as well as outdoor fireplaces, sun-room, butlers pantry and a media room. So, I wonder what is going to happen to all those “McMansions” that were built during the last decade as us baby boomers age, become empty-nesters and don’t need the space? Hmm…not so sure the X’rs and Y’rs are going to super-size their space.
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the “rate” of new home sales paints a realistic picture of the market. I think this holds especially true when we have artificial forces affecting the housing market such as tax credits as we have seen what an artificial “bubble” in the market this can cause.