New home permits and starts increase in May; New home shortage coming?

New construction dn-3

The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued their report on New Residential Construction for June 2011 showing a very slight increase in single-family home building permits from the month before (0.2 percent), and a 9.4 percent increase in new home starts compared to the month before. Continue reading “New home permits and starts increase in May; New home shortage coming?

New home sales decline in May; Up over 15 percent from year before

Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Census Bureau released new home sales data for May 2011 showing a decrease of 2.1 percent from the month before, and an increase of 13.5 percent from a year ago.

The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for May was 319,000 homes, down from 326,000 the month before. The supply of new homes on the market decreased from an adjusted 6.3 month supply the month before to a 6.2 month supply in May. The median new home price increased for the month to $222,600, a 2.6 percent increase from a revised median price of $217,000 the month before and a decrease of 3.4 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “New home sales decline in May; Up over 15 percent from year before

New home construction increases in May; outpacing new home sales by 60 percent

New construction dn-3

The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued their report on New Residential Construction for May 2011 showing a 2.5 percent increase in single-family home building permits from the month before, and a 3.7 percent increase in new home starts compared to the month before. Continue reading “New home construction increases in May; outpacing new home sales by 60 percent

New home sales and prices increase in April; still down over 23 percent from a year ago

Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Census Bureau released new home sales data for April 2011 showing an increase of 7.3 percent from the month before, and a decrease of 23.1 percent from a year ago.

The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for April was 323,000 homes. The supply of new homes on the market decreased from an adjusted 7.2 month supply the month before to a 6.5 month supply in April. The median new home price increased for the month to $217,900, a 1.6 percent increase from a revised median price of $214,500 the month before and an increase of 4.6 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “New home sales and prices increase in April; still down over 23 percent from a year ago

New Home Construction Declines in April; No Recovery in Site for Builders

New construction dn-3

The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued their report on New Residential Construction for April 2011 showing a 1.8 percent decrease in single-family home building permits from the month before, and a 5.1 percent decrease in new home starts compared to the month before. Continue reading “New Home Construction Declines in April; No Recovery in Site for Builders

New home sales and prices increase in March

Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Census Bureau released new home sales data for March 2011 showing an increase of 11.1 percent from the month before, and a decrease of 21.9 percent from a year ago.

The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for March was 300,000 homes. The supply of new homes on the market decreased from an adjusted 8.2 month supply the month before to a 7.3 month supply in March. The median new home price increased for the month to $213,800, a 2.9 percent increase from a revised median price of $207,700 the month before and a decrease of 4.9 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “New home sales and prices increase in March

New Home Construction Activity Increases in March

New construction dn-3

The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued their report on New Residential Construction for March 2011 showing a 5.7 percent increase in single-family home building permits from the month before, and a 7.7 percent increase in new home starts compared to the month before. This comes on the heels of new home construction sinking to a 25 year low last month. Continue reading “New Home Construction Activity Increases in March

New home sales plummet in February, prices fall as well

Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Census Bureau released new home sales data for February 2011 showing a decrease of 16.9 percent from the month before, and a decrease of 28.0 percent from a year ago.

The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for February was 250,000 homes. The supply of new homes on the market increased from an adjusted 7.4 month supply the month before to a 8.9 month supply in February. The median new home price decreased for the month to $202,100, a 13.9 percent decrease from a revised median price of $234,800 the month before and a decrease of 8.9 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “New home sales plummet in February, prices fall as well

New home construction sinks to 25 year low

New construction dn-3

The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for February 2011 showing a 9.3 percent decrease in single-family home building permits from January, and a 27.0 percent decrease in new home starts compared to the year before. Continue reading “New home construction sinks to 25 year low

New home sales fall in January…down over 18 percent from a year ago

Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Census Bureau released new home sales data for January 2011 showing a decrease of 12.6 percent from the month before, and a decrease of 18.6 percent from a year ago.

The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for January was 284,000 homes. The supply of new homes on the market increased from an adjusted 7.0 month supply in December to a 7.9 month supply in January. The median new home price decreased for the month to $230,600 a 1.8 percent decrease from a revised median price of $235,000 the month before and an increase of 5.7 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “New home sales fall in January…down over 18 percent from a year ago

New home construction starts off 2011 with a ‘fizzle’

New construction dn-3

The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for January 2011 showing a 4.8 percent decrease in single-family home building permits from December, and a 1.0 percent decrease in new home starts compared to the month before. Continue reading “New home construction starts off 2011 with a ‘fizzle’

New home sales close out 2010 on the rise; predicting increased sales in 2011

Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Census Bureau released new home sales data for December 2010 showing an increase of 17.5 percent from the month before, but a decrease of 7.6 percent from a year ago.

The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for December was 329,000 homes, a 17.5 percent increase from November’s revised rate of 280,000 homes. The supply of new homes on the market decreased from an adjusted 8.4 month supply in November to a 6.9 month supply in December. The median new home price increased for the month to $241,500 whopping 12.0 percent increase from $215,500 the month before and an increase of 8.5 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “New home sales close out 2010 on the rise; predicting increased sales in 2011

New home starts drop in December; down 14 percent from year before

New construction dn-3

The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for December 2010 showing a 5.5 percent increase in single-family home building permits from November, but a 9.0 percent decrease in new home starts compared to the month before. Continue reading “New home starts drop in December; down 14 percent from year before

New home sales and prices increase in November

Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Census Bureau released new home sales data for November 2010 showing an increase of 5.50 percent from the month before, but a decrease of 21.2 percent from a year ago.

The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for November was 290,000 homes, a 5.5 percent increase from October’s revised rate of 275,000 homes. The supply of new homes on the market decreased from an adjusted 8.8 month supply in October to a 8.2 month supply in November. The median new home price increased for the month to $213,000 from $197,200 the month before and down from $218,800 a year ago. Continue reading “New home sales and prices increase in November

St Louis Area Single Family Building Permits Up over 12 Percent

According to information released by the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (HBA), building permit activity in the St. Louis area through October of this year, is up over 12 percent from the same time last year. Continue reading “St Louis Area Single Family Building Permits Up over 12 Percent

New home sales fall in October; Down 30 percent from year before

Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Census Bureau released new home sales data for October 2010 showing a decrease of 8.1 percent from the month before, but a decrease of 28.5 percent from a year ago.

The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for October was 283,000 homes, a 8.1 percent decrease from Septbmer’s rate of 308,000 homes. The supply of new homes on the market increase from an adjusted 7.9 month supply in September to a 8.6 month supply in October. The median new home price decreased for the month to $194,900 from $226,300 the month before and down from $215,100 a year ago. Continue reading “New home sales fall in October; Down 30 percent from year before

October New Home Construction: Permits Up, Starts Down

New construction dn-3

The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for October 2010 showing a slight increase in single-family home building permits and a small decrease in new home starts compared to the month before. Continue reading “October New Home Construction: Permits Up, Starts Down

New home sales rate up over six percent in September; down over 20 percent from year before

Dennis Norman

Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Census Bureau released new home sales data for September 2010 showing an increase of 6.6 percent from the month before, but a decrease of 21.5 percent from a year ago.

Continue reading “New home sales rate up over six percent in September; down over 20 percent from year before

New home construction increases slightly in September; Still greatly outpaces sales

New construction dn-3

The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for September 2010 showing a slight increase in single-family home building permits and an increase in new home starts compared to the month before. Continue reading “New home construction increases slightly in September; Still greatly outpaces sales

The country’s first home developer

 

Dennis Norman

I saw an interesting tidbit that came from the US Census Bureau that shows just how much things have changed in the real estate world in the past 60+ years in the U.S.  The piece I saw was from the census bureau’s “Profile America” series and discussed one of the first communities built in our country by a real estate developer back in 1947.  The place was the town of Levittown, on New York’s Long Island and aptly named for the developers, William and Alfred Levitt.

Eventually the town contained more than 17,000 Cape Code and ranch style homes that soldiers returning from World War II snapped up…..apparently there was a housing shortage at the time (oh what I wouldn’t give for another housing shortage :).   Continue reading “The country’s first home developer

No Improvement in New Home Sales in August

Dennis Norman

Last month I reported that July’s new home sales rate of 276,000 homes was the lowest rate on record.  Subsequently the Commerce Department revised July and changed the sales rate to 288,000 homes raising July to the second-lowest home sales rate on record.  Today, the numbers for August came out and they are no better….the new home sales rate for August is being reported by the Commerce Department as 288,000 homes, the same as July. Continue reading “No Improvement in New Home Sales in August

New home construction continues to outpace new home sales; look for inventory to grow

New construction dn-3

The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for August 2010 showing a decrease in single-family home building permits and an increase in new home starts compared to the month before. Continue reading “New home construction continues to outpace new home sales; look for inventory to grow

New Home Sales In July Drop to All-Time Low

Dennis Norman

The good news is May’s new home sales rate of 267,000, which was the lowest sales rate on record, was revised upward to 281,000. The bad news is June’s sales rate of 330,000 was revised downward to 315,000 and now new home sales for July were reported at 276,000 the new lowest rate on record. Due to the dismal sales, the inventory of new homes on the market increased from an 8 month supply in June to a 9.1 month supply in July.

Continue reading “New Home Sales In July Drop to All-Time Low

New Home Permits and Construction Drop in July; Still outpacing new home sales though

New construction dn-3

The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for July 2010 showing a decrease in single-family home building permits and a decrease in new home starts from June. Continue reading “New Home Permits and Construction Drop in July; Still outpacing new home sales though

New Home Sales Increase 23 percent to Second-Worst Rate on Record

Dennis Norman

Yes, the headline is correct….New home sales in June were up 23 percent from May, but unfortunately the revised May annual new home sales rate of 267,000 was the lowest rate of sale on record therefore even after a 23.6 percent increase it only brought June up to 330,000 new homes, a rate that is now the second lowest new home sales rate on record. June’s new home sales rate is 16.7 percent below a year ago.

There is some good news in the report; the inventory of new homes (seasonally adjusted) at the end of June is 7.6 months, a 20.8 percent decrease from May’s revised inventory of 9.5 months and is a 10.6 percent decrease from June 2009 when the inventory was 8.5 months.

My Mantra

As has been my long-running mantra, I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers and “rate” of sales. Why, for one I can’t figure out how in the world they compute the numbers. Second, I just don’t think discussing New Home Sales September 2009the “rate” of new home sales paints a realistic picture of the market. I think this holds especially true when we have artificial forces affecting the housing market such as tax credits as we have seen what an artificial “bubble” in the market this can cause.

Here is the raw data, the ACTUAL new homes sold- no fluff, no “adjusting”

  • 30,000 new homes sold in June, an increase of 15.4 percent from May’s 26,000 new homes sold (revised) but is an 18.9 percent decrease from June 2009 when there were 37,000 new homes sold.
    • 53.3 percent (16,000) of the new homes sold were in the South region- an increase of 23.0 percent from May.
    • the west region had 5,000 new homes sold, a decrease of 16.7 percent from May’s revised sales.
    • the Midwest had 5,000 new homes sold, an increase of 25.0 percent from May.
    • The Northeast had 4,000 new homes sold, an increase of 33.3 percent from May.
  • YTD – In the first six months of 2010 there have been 183,000 new homes sold, a decrease of 2.7 percent from the same time last year.
  • Median sale price of new homes in the US in June was $213,400, a 1.4 percent decrease from May’s median new home price of $216,400 and 0.6 percent decrease from a year ago when the median new home price was $214,700.
  • New Homes in the US in May have been for sale for a median time of 12.4 months since the homes were completed, a 12 percent decrease from May’s revised figure of 14.1 months.

My prediction for 2010

I’m encouraged by indications of some price stability we are seeing as well as decreasing inventory of new homes. I’m concerned about the new home permits and starts as they appear to be greatly outpacing sales and could lead to increased inventories and I’m also concerned about the underlying economy and general anemic behavior of the real estate market. Clearly this market is not going to fix itself overnight, nor this year even. However, having said that, I’m going to stick with, what I think is perhaps somewhat optimistic, prediction of 336,600 – 355,000 new home sales in 2010.

New Home Building Permits and Starts Down In June

New construction dn-3

The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for June 2010 showing a decrease in building permits and a decrease in new home starts from May.

The report shows the following:

  • Building permits issued for single-family residences in June were at an annual rate of 421,000 which is 3.4 percent below the revised May rate of 4216,000 and a decrease of 6.7 percent from a year ago when the rate was 451,000.
  • Housing starts for single-family residences in June were at an annual rate of 454,000 which is a decrease of 0.7 percent from the revised rate for May of 457,000 and an decrease of 4.6 percent from a year ago.
  • Homes completed in June were at a rate of 676,000 homes, an increase of 31.3 percent from May’s revised rate of 515,000 homes and an increase of 32.5 percent from a year ago.

As I say every month, we need to remember that all the numbers above are “seasonally adjusted” annual rates and the year over year comparisons are just comparing the numbers for June 2010 versus June 2009. Another way I like to look at where things stand is to simply look at the year to date data; actual numbers, not seasonally adjusted, compared to last years ytd numbers at this same time. I think this may give a little better comparison so those numbers are below:

  • Through June 2010 there have been 245,100 permits issued for new homes compared with 203,000 this time last year for an increase of 20.7 percent.
    • In June there were 42,900 permits issued, an increase from May’s 42,100 permits.
  • Through June 2010 there have been 256,400 new homes started compared with 202,100 this time last year for an increase of 26.9 percent.
    • In June there were 45,500 new homes started, an increase from May’s 43,300 new starts.
  • There have been 243,800 new homes completed through June 2010, pretty much the same as this time last year when there were 243,600 homes completed.
    • In June there were 60,000 new homes completed, an increase from May’s 42,600 completions.

Let’s do one of my favorite things and look at the raw numbers and not seasonally-adjusted numbers to compare construction activity to sales:

  • Through the end of May, 2010 (the most recent period sales data is available for) there have been 159,000 new homes sold and there have been 183,800 new homes completed, outpacing sales by 15.6 percent.
    • For the 12-month period June 2009 through May 2010 there were 383,000 new homes sold and there were 504,800 new homes completed, outpacing sales by 31.8 percent.
  • Through the end of May there have been 210,900 new homes started outpacing the new ytd home sales activity through May by 32.6 percent.

As expected, building permits and starts have dropped after the temporary spike upward which was the result of home-buyers rushing tobeat the tax-credit deadline of April 30th. A concern of mine however is that new home starts and permits continue to outpace new home sales in both YTD numbers as well as in the prior 12 month period as I have shown above. Replenishing inventory of new homes would make sense if the underlying real estate market was showing some solid signs of recovery and growth but unfortunately it is not so I’m afraid if this trend continues it is going to lead to an over-supply of new homes again which will not be good.

 

What’s Hot and What’s Not in New Homes?

Dennis Norman

Less Is More

Over the past decade or so it seems everything has gotten “super-sized” to the point of absurdity in my opinion. Therefore I find it refreshing to see that, according to the “Home Trends 2010” report by the Real Estate Buyer’s Agent Council, home buyers are scaling down both in size and in features.  Perhaps the past couple of years has humbled many of us and given us a different perspective on materialistic things?

Anyway, before I go off on  a tangent, here are highlights from the Home Trends report:

  • The average size of new single family homes decreased in 2009 after being flat in 2008.
  • Homes built with at least 3 bedrooms decreased in 2009 for the first-time since 1992 (I guess more and more of my fellow baby-boomers are becoming empty nesters?)
  • Homes built with 4 or more bedrooms has been falling since 2007.
  • Homes with two or more stories peaked in 2006, then began a downward trend.

The ten most likely features that builders will include in a new homes:

  • Walk-in-closet in master bedroom
  • Laundry Room
  • Insulated front door
  • Great Room
  • Low-e windows
  • Linen Closet
  • Programmable thermostat
  • Energy efficient appliances and lighting
  • Separate shower and tub in master bedroom
  • 9-foot ceilings or higher on 1st floor

New homes are no doubt being built with affordability and efficiency in mind.  Nonetheless buyers seem unwilling to give up master bedroom suites with nice master baths, although some of the “super-size” stuff is gone, such as multiple shower heads.  What else is getting cut?  According to the report, builders say that an outdoor kitchen is the first to go as well as outdoor fireplaces, sun-room, butlers pantry and a media room.

So, I wonder what is going to happen to all those “McMansions” that were built during the last decade as us baby boomers age, become empty-nesters and don’t need the space?  Hmm…not so sure the X’rs and Y’rs are going to super-size their space.

 

New-Home Sales Crash In May after Sugar-Rush of Tax Credit Sales

Dennis Norman

Last month after the new home sales reports came out I had this to say:

“I’m very encouraged by home sales in March and April, both in new homes and existing home sales and, if it wasn’t for the fact the homebuyer tax-credit incentive expired April 30th, no doubt a factor that caused buyers to rush to buy, I would feel the market was turning. However, I have strong concerns that this recent “housing recovery” is the result of an artificial market created by incentives, leading to sort of a “sugar-rush” among homebuyers, and now that the sugar is wearing off, buyers will slow down.”

Unfortunately, my concerns were warranted it appears….Today The U.S. Department of Commerce released a report showing the sale of New Homes in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 300,000, a 32.7 percent decrease from the revised April rate of 446,000 and is 18.3 percent below a year ago.

The inventory of new homes (seasonally adjusted) at the end of May is 8.5 months almost a 47 percent increase from April when there was a 5.8 month supply.

My Mantra

As has been my long-running mantra, I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers and “rate” of sales. Why, for one I can’t figure out how in the world they compute the numbers. Second, I just don’t think discussing New Home Sales September 2009the “rate” of new home sales paints a realistic picture of the market. I think this holds especially true when we have artificial forces affecting the housing market such as tax credits as we have seen what an artificial “bubble” in the market this can cause.

Here is the raw data, the ACTUAL new homes sold- no fluff, no “adjusting”

  • 28,000 new homes sold in May, a decrease of 36.4 percent from April’s 44,000 new homes sold and also a 17.6 percent decrease from May 2009 when there were 34,000 new homes sold.
    • 53.5 percent (15,000) of the new homes sold were in the South region- a decrease of 34.8 percent from April.
    • the west region had 5,000 new homes sold, a decrease of 50.0 percent from April
    • the Midwest had 5,000 new homes sold, a decrease of 16.7 percent from April.
    • The Northeast had 3,000 new homes sold, a decrease of 25.0 percent from April.
  • YTD – In the first four months of 2010 there have been 159,000 new homes sold, an increase of 6.0 percent from the same time last year.
  • Median sale price of new homes in the US in May was $200,900, a 0.9 percent decrease from April’s median new home price of $202,900 and a 9.6 percent decrease from a year ago when the median new home price was $222,300.
  • New Homes in the US in May have been for sale for a median time of 14.2 months since the homes were completed, slightly less than April’s revised figure of 14.3 months.

My prediction for 2010

I think this report shows that the housing market is still quite volatile, particularly new home sales, and consumers are still quite cautious. May is normally a good month for home sales and, as this report shows, sales have languished this month. Granted, some of the buyers that would normally be buying now may have pushed up the time-line to get the credits, so this may just be a lull from that, and YTD home sales are running slightly ahead of last year, so the sales numbers for June and July are going to reveal a lot. If new home sales for those months pops back up to the 37,000 – 38,000 range like they were last time last year then that would be encouraging and a sign the new home market is stabilizing. However, if new home sales for those months stay in the 20 something thousand range like May, then I think we are in for more pain.

As far as my prediction for new home sales this year I’m going to stick with my estimate of 336,600 – 355,000 new home sales in 2010.

New Home Permits Drop Almost 10 Percent in May; New Home Starts Drop 17 Percent

New construction dn-3

The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for May 2010 showing a decrease in building permits and a decrease in new home starts from April.

The report shows the following:

  • Building permits issued for single-family residences in May were at an annual rate of 438,000 which is 9.9 percent below the revised April rate of 486,000 and an increase of 3.1 percent from a year ago when the rate was 425,000.
  • Housing starts for single-family residences in May were at an annual rate of 468,000 which is a decrease of 17.2 percent from April’s revised rate of 565,000 and an increase of 15.3 percent from a year ago.
  • Homes completed in May were at a rate of 507,000 homes, down 7.8 percent from April’s rate of 550,000 homes and an increase of 2.4 percent from a year ago.

As I say every month, we need to remember that all the numbers above are “seasonally adjusted” annual rates and the year over year comparisons are just comparing the numbers for May 2010 versus May 2009. Another way I like to look at where things stand is to simply look at the year to date data; actual numbers, not seasonally adjusted, compared to last years ytd numbers at this same time. I think this may give a little better comparison so those numbers are below:

  • Through May 2010 there have been 202,600 permits issued for new homes compared with 156.900 this time last year for an increase of 29.1 percent.
    • In May there were 50,600 permits issued, an increase from April’s 35,000 permits.
  • Through May 2010 there have been 211,700 new homes started compared with 152,900 this time last year for an increase of 38.5 percent.
    • In May there were 45,100 new homes started, a decrease from April’s 52,300 new starts.
  • There have been 183,700 new homes completed through May 2010, compared with 199,200 this time last year for a decline of 7.8.
    • In May there were 42,400 new homes completed, a slight decrease from April’s 43,000 completions.

Let’s do one of my favorite things and look at the raw numbers and not seasonally-adjusted numbers to compare construction activity to sales:

  • Through the end of April, 2010 (the most recent period sales data is available for) there have been 137,000 new homes sold and there have been 141,300 new homes completed, outpacing sales by a modest 3.1 percent.
  • Through the end of April there have been 166,600 new homes started outpacing the new ytd home sales activity through April by 21.6 percent.

I think most people fully expected building permits and starts to drop in May after the spike in the prior couple of months as a result of the home-buyer tax credit deadline to purchase of April 30th. Since starts and permits are still outpacing home sales I still have concern that there is too much optimism out there and an expectation that demand for new homes is going to increase soon which I don’t think is in the cards. I think until the foreclosure and mortgage delinquency rates start subsiding, and the inventory of foreclosures and REO’s on the market (and on the banks books) has bled off, we won’t be seeing much of an increase in demand for new homes.

 

St Louis Area New-Home Building Permits Drop In April After Spiking in March

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

After seeing a spike in permits for new homes in St. Louis in March, with the exception of the City of St. Louis, all the St. Louis metro area counties saw a decline in new home permits in April, some rather steep based upon the latest data reported by the Home Builders Association of St. Louis (HBA).

Existing home sales data and mortgage application data have suggested that the April 30th deadline for the home-buyer tax credit caused an artificial surge in the housing market as buyers raced to beat the deadline to buy a home; it now appears the new home data is going to follow suit.

Highlights from the HBA report (April, 2010 New-Home Permit Data):

  • St. Louis County New Home Building Permits: 40, down 18.4 percent from March and just slightly behind April 2009.
  • St. Charles County New Home Building Permits: 140, down 31.4 percent from March and slightly ahead of April 2009.
  • Jefferson County New Home Building Permits: 59, down 33.0 percent from March but Up 20.4 percent from April 2009.
  • Franklin County New Home Building Permits: 18, down 33.33 percent from March, but up 100 percent from April 2009.
  • Lincoln County New Home Building Permits: 13, down 40.9 percent from March but up a staggering 333 percent from April 2009.
  • Warren County New Home Building Permits: 17, down 64.0 percent from March but up 112.5 percent from April 2009.
  • St. Louis City New Home Building Permits: 14, up 55.56 percent from March but down 26.32 percent from April 2009.

Year-t0-date New Home Permits Look Better For All Areas, except the City of St. Louis (all current ytd data is through April 2010):

  • St. Louis County YTD New Home Building Permits: 148, up 37.03 percent from the same time last year and down 22.51 percent from the same period in 2008.
  • St. Charles County YTD New Home Building Permits: 557, up 74.1 percent from the same time last year and up 8.2 percent from the same period in 2008.
  • Jefferson County YTD New Home Building Permits: 244, up 70.63 percent from the same time last year and down 7.5 percent from the same period in 2008.
  • Franklin County YTD New Home Building Permits: 62, up 14.8 percent from the same time last year and up 264.7 percent from the same period in 2008.
  • Lincoln County YTD New Home Building Permits: 54, up 145.5 percent from the same time last year and up 12.5 percent from the same period in 2008.
  • Warren County YTD New Home Building Permits: 79, up 216.0 percent from the same time last year and up 52.0 percent from the same period in 2008.
  • City of St. Louis YTD New Home Building Permits: 25, down  13.8 percent from the same time last year and down 46.8 percent from the same period in 2008.

The YTD numbers are getting the benefit of the spike in March so, going forward in “post tax credit times”, I think it is apparent that the momentum is going to slow which will cause the comparison to the prior two years to not look quite as positive.   I think May’s numbers will be very telling of the future.