There were4,628 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during July, an increase of 9.56% from a year ago when there were 4,224 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). For the second month in a row, Five of the seven counties covered in the report saw an increase in building permits from a year ago with three of them in the double digits. Franklin County saw the largest increase at 25.69% and Lincoln County experienced the largest decrease at 13.97%.
There were 4,573 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during July, an increase of 7.0% from a year ago when there were 4,271 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). For the second month in a row, Franklin County saw the largest percentage increase in building permits from a year ago with an increase of 27.59% from July 2019. St Louis County, which a decrease in permits last month from a year ago, so nearly an 11% increase in July 2020 from July 2019.
There were 4,468 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during June, an increase of 5.9% from a year ago when there were 4,219 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). However, the increase in new home construction activity was not shared equally around the St Louis area as the counties of St Charles, Jefferson, and Franklin all saw double-digit increases while the other four counties saw declines.
There were 4,4,83 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during April, an increase of 4.28% from a year ago when there were 4,299 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). However, the increase in new home construction activity was not shared equally around the St Louis area and, in fact, really only favored St Charles County and Jefferson County again.
Of the seven counties reported on by the St Louis HBA, 5 saw a decline in building permits from a year ago (the same 5 counties as last month) and, like last month, Lincoln County saw the largest decline at over 15%, and St Charles County was the big winner again where the number of new home building permits in March increased nearly 20% from the same month last year.
There were 4,506 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during March, an increase of 4.55% from a year ago when there were 4,310 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). However, the increase in new home construction activity was not shared equally around the St Louis area and, in fact, really only favored St Charles County and Jefferson County.
Of the seven counties reported on by the St Louis HBA, 5 saw a decline in building permits from a year ago with Lincoln County seeing the biggest loss at over 25%, and St Charles County was the big winner where the number of new home building permits in March increased nearly 25% from the same month last year.
Buying a new home can be a great experience but it can also be a daunting one as well. For homeowners that have previously only purchased an existing home, they will quickly find the process is much different. From the number of decisions that must be made, change orders and other financial surprises along the way, it can be a little overwhelming for a buyer. Particularly one that went into the process ill prepared or without proper representation by a buyers agent that is experienced in new construction.
What you need to know BEFORE buying a new home…
For more complete information, you can find my complete new home buying report here but I have highlights of the report below:
The new home construction trend in St. Louis during January slowed just a bit with a total of 4,426 new home permits being issued for the 12-month period ended January 31, 2020, a slight decline of about 1% from a year ago when there were 4,447 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri.
As the table below shows, 5 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago. Two of the three counties with the most new home activity, St Charles County and Jefferson County, both saw double-digit increases in permit activity from the prior 12-month period.
There were 70,000 new homes sold in the Midwest Region of the United States during 2019, a decline of 7.2% from 2018 when there were 76,000 new homes sold, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
As the table below shows, there were 40,000 new homes for sale in the Mideast at the end of 2019, which translates into roughly a 7 month supply of new homes for sale.
Homes that sold in the 63048 zip code in the last 30 days were on the market an average of just 30 days before selling, making this the fastest sold zip code in the St Louis MSA. The 63048 zip code area in Jefferson County includes the cities of Pevely, Festus and Herculaneum.
Five of the top ten zip codes were in St Louis County, two in Jefferson County and one in the Counties of St Charles, St Louis City and Madison, Il.
St Louis Zip Codes Where Homes Sold The Fastest In Last 30 Days
I’ll concede the fact that not everyone is as much of a data geek as I am and, in fact, a more accurate statement would probably be that most people are not, including the majority of home buyers and sellers. Sure, home buyers and sellers are interested in home prices and what the potential value of the home is they are looking to buy or sell, but most leave the real data analysis to their agent. After all, part of being a professional real estate agent is knowing the market as well as knowing how to research the market and apply market data to their client’s situation.
However, don’t assume all real estate agents are created equal in this regard and that they all know the market as well as they should or do the research they should. There are many great agents that do these things very well but there are a bunch, probably an equal number, if not more, that don’t. Even the agents that do it well are still limited to the data resources they have available to them.
New home construction in St. Louis during October held at about the same trend as September with 4,289 new home permits issued for the 12-month period ended October 31, 2019, a decline of 8.04% from a year ago when there were 4,664 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri. This is about the same as September when the 12-month trend was down 8.05% from the prior 12-month period.
As the table below shows, 4 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago. This is the same as last month, with the same four counties on the decline. For the 9th month in a row, Franklin County suffered the biggest loss at 41.31%. At the other end of the spectrum, St Charles County had the largest increase at 7.55% and took removed Warren County from the number one slot after Warren County had 9 consecutive months of the highest growth in permits.
New home construction in St. Louis continued its decline, although at a lower rate, with 4,286 new home permits issued for the 12-month period ended September 30, 2019, a decline of 8.05% from a year ago when there were 4,661 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri. This is an improvement from the 12-month period ended August 31, 2019, when the decline was nearly 10% from the year before (9.74%).
As the table below shows, 4 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago. Franklin County again suffered the biggest loss at 43.82% making it the 8th month in a row Franklin County has seen a loss. At the other end of the spectrum, Warren County again had the largest increase at 22.22% and this marks the 9th month in a row of increases for the county. For only the second time in the past 12-months, St Charles County saw an increase in new home permits issued during the period with a 3.79% increase.
St Louis New Home Building Permits – September 2019
New home construction in St. Louis continues to decline with 4,244 new home permits issued in August 2019 for the St Louis area, a decline of 9.74% from a year ago when there were 4,702 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri.
As the table below shows, 5 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago. Franklin County has suffered the biggest loss at 44.13% and Warren County has seen the largest increase at 15.57%.
Yesterday, someone shared with me an article that appeared on CBS News online about a couple, Tyler and Elisha Hessel, that discovered the house they purchased had previously been the subject of a meth lab seizure. The home, at 7218 Valley Drive in Barnhart, Missouri, was purchased by the Hessel’s in January of 2018. According to the article, Elisha is expecting a baby and, earlier this year, the results of some standard pregnancy-related tests showed the baby tested positive for amphetamines. This led to the Hessel’s discovering that the home they purchased was on a list of Meth Lab Seizures from a bust back on October 3, 2013. The article goes on to state that the Hessel’s have been forced to move out of the home for health reasons and a Go Fund Me campaign has been set up for them at https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-tyler-and-elisha-hessel.
Meth Labs have been a real problem in Jefferson County
For the 5-county core St Louis housing market, there were 26.047 homes sold during the 12-month period ended August 31, 2019, a decline of 3% from the 12-month trend for the prior month. As the chart (a proprietary product developed by MORE, REALTORS to help keep its agents and clients on top of market conditions) below shows, there were 27,753 homes sold during the 12-month period ended August 31st of 2018, so the current period sales of 26,047 homes represents a 6.1% decrease from the same period a year ago.
St Louis 5-County Core Market – Home Sales Trend – Past 5 Years
For the 12-month period ended May 31, 2019, there were building permits issued for 300 new homes in Jefferson County, a decline of nearly 26% from the prior 12-month period according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri. For the same period, there were permits issued for 758 new homes in St Louis County,a decline of 23.50% from the prior 12-month period.
Warren County saw a double-digit percentage increase in building permits again this period, and the City of St Louis again had an increase.
For the 12-month period ended April 30, 2019, there were building permits issued for 757 new homes in St Louis County,a decline of 22.80% from the prior 12-month period, according to the latest data from the St Louis HBA. As the table below shows, St Charles County saw a decline of 6.38% during the same period. In February of this year, only two counties showed a downward trend in building permits, but in March that grew to 4 counties and for April, 5 of the 7 counties we are reporting on, show a decline in new home building permits. Warren County continues to show growth and an upward trend in new home construction with an increase of 20.07% in building permits during the most recent 12-month period from the prior 12-month period.
For the 12-month period ended March 31, 2019, there were building permits issued for 748 new homes in St Louis County,a decline of 23.60% from the prior 12-month period, according to the latest data from the St Louis HBA. As the table below shows, St Charles County saw a decline of 11.23% during the same period. Last month, those were the only two counties showing a downward trend, but, this month, Franklin County and the City of St Louis have also seen new home construction trend downward. Warren County again showed the greatest upward trend in new home construction with an increase of 23.66% in building permits during the most recent 12-month period from the prior 12-month period.
For the 12-month period ended February 28, 2019, there were building permits issued for 785 new homes in St Louis County,a decline of 21.11% from the prior 12-month period, according to the latest data from the St Louis HBA. As the table below shows, St Charles County saw a decline of 13.05% during the same period however the other counties reported on by the St Louis HBA are all showing increased new home building activity for the period. From a percentage standpoint, Warren County saw the biggest increase at 30.04%.
St Louis New Home Building Permits – February 2019
Some new home buyers believe that if they buy a new home directly from the builder or the builder’s sales person, they will get a better price. But is this true? Doyou get a better deal buying a new home directly from the builder?
First, we should address a “better deal” and what constitutes a good “deal”. If it is strictly price, then, while I think it is somewhat short-sided on the part of the buyer and falls in that “penny-wise, dollar-foolish” category, in some instances, with some builders, the builder will save some cost by you buying from their agent. This is the result of the builder having an agent that will get paid less commission that the builder would pay a buyer’s agent then if the builder chooses to pass that savings along to the buyer, rather than keep it, the buyer should receive a better price. However, just like the possible savings motivated the buyer to deal directly with the builder, it is unrealistic to think that a builder is not going to feel the same and be motivated to have a better profit margin dealing directly with the buyer and instead would choose to forego the savings and give it to the buyer in the price. Plus, most builders appreciate and understand, the vital role a buyer’s agent plays in the transaction and wants to encourage agents to show and sell their homes, so they typically avoid doing things that look like they are trying to cut an agent out of a deal by dealing directly with the buyer.
There were 4,471 building permits issued for new homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended January 31, 2019, a decline of 5.20% from the prior 12-month period when there were 4,716 permits issued, according to information just released by the Home Builders Association of St Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).
As the table below shows, St Charles County continues to see the largest decline in new home construction with 1,489 new home permits issued in the most recent 12-month period, down 13.03% from the prior 12 month period. Four counties in the St Louis area have seen gains in permits, with Warren County being the big winner in terms of percentage increase with nearly a 30 percent increase in new home permits for the period!
St Louis New Home Building Permits Issued – Jan 2019
There were 4,140 building permits issued for new homes in the St Louis area during 2018, a decline of 3.16% from the year before when there were 4,275 permits issued, according to information just released by the Home Builders Association of St Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). The number of permits issued for new homes during 2018 was just slightly down from 2016.
As the table below shows, St Charles County has seen the largest decline in new home construction with 1,499 new home permits issued in 2018, down 12.85% from the year before and decline of 24.48% from 2016 when there were 1,985 permits issued. Franklin County, Warren County and the city of St Louis all had significant double-digit gains in building permits issued during 2018 from the year before.
St Louis New Home Building Permits Issued – 2016-2018
The overall mortgage delinquency rate in the U.S. fell in August to the lowest level in over 12 years, according to a report just released by CoreLogic. According to the report, 4.2% of all St Louis home mortgages were 30+ days delinquent in August 2018, a decline of over 14% from a year ago when the rate was 4.9%. During the same period, seriously delinquent mortgages, those that are 90+ days late, in St Louis dropped from 1.8% a year ago to 1.4% in August 2018, according to the report.
I had lunch yesterday with a long-time friend who is a St Louis home-builder who shared with me the continually rising costs of construction he faces. Our conversation was consistent with conversations I’ve had with other builders as well, who cite a variety of things responsible for the ever-increasing costs of new home construction. The areas most often mentioned relate to regulatory and compliance issues, material prices as well as rising labor costs. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), the average cost to build a new home has inreased 56% over the past 15 years. According to the NAHB, over the past 15 years construction costs accounted for a median of 57% of the cost of a new home.
The gap between new home prices and existing home prices widens..
As the chart below illustrates, over the past 15 years, the median price of a new home has increased 68% while, as the bottom chart shows, the price of homes in the U.S. (according to the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index) has only increased 43.6% during the same period. During the past 15 years, new home prices have increased 56% more than home prices overall.
Median Sales Price For New Homes Sold In The U.S. – Past 15 Years
S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index – Past 15 Years
There were 4,642 new home building permits issued for the 7 counties in the St Louis area covered by the St Louis HBA during the 12-month period ended August 31, 2018, just 2 more (0.04%) than the 4,640 that were issued during the prior 12-month period, according to data from the St Louis HBA.
This would indicate that perhaps the new home building market has peaked for the time being which, given that this is the best report for this 12-month period since August 2007 when there were 5,706 permits issued in the prior 12 months, it’s not bad.
St Charles County’s Loss is Franklin County’s gain…
As the table below, which shows the building permit activity by county, illustrates, St Charles County has seen nearly a 14% decline in building permits in the past 12-months from the prior period, while Franklin County has seen nearly a 42% increase. Granted, 32.9% of all the building permits issued in the 7-county area were issued in St Charles County, but a year ago 38.3% of all the permits were issued in St Charles County.
The sale of new homes in the Midwest region of the U.S. is on the rise according to a report just released by the Census Bureau. In July, new homes in the Midwest sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 78,000 homes, an increase of 9.9% from June and an 18.2% increase from July 2017 when the rates were 66,000 homes. Year-to-date this year, though the end of July, there have been 50,000 actual new homes sold in the Midwest region, an increase of 14.2% from the same time last year when there had been 44,000 new homes sold year-to-date.
On a national level, new home sales are not performing as well as the Midwest region, but are still performing well. In July, new homes were sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000 homes, a decrease of 1.7% from the month before and an increase of 12.8% from July 2017. Year-to-date, through the end of July, there have been 401,000 new homes sold nationwide, an increase of 7.2% from the same time last year when there were 374,000 new homes sold year-to-date.
New homes sold in the Midwest region of the U.S. in June were at a seasonally-adjusted, annual rate of 71,000 homes, according to a report just released by the U.S. Department of Commerce and United States Census Bureau. June’s new home sales activity in the Midwest represents a 13.4% decline from May when new homes in the Midwest sold at an annual rate of 82,000 homes but is a 7.6% increase from June 2017 when the annual rate was 66,000 homes. Last year the rate of new home sales in this region increased every month after June up until December when it crashed but closed out the year with 72,000 new homes sold.
In terms of the actual number of new homes sold this year in the Midwest region, there have been 44,000 new homes sold this year thus far, through the end of June. Last year, for the same time period, there were just 38,000 new homes sold in this region year to date so we are up 14.4% in non-seasonally adjusted, actual year to date new home sales in the Midwest through the end of June.
As the table below shows, for the most recent 12-months that new home building permit data is available for from the Home Builders Association of St Louis & Eastern Missouri, there have been 4,610 new home building permits issued in the 7 counties they report on. This is just slightly less than was issued for the prior 12-month period ending April 2017, when there were 4,625 permits issued.
St Charles County New Home Building Permit Trend Continues to Fall…
There were 1,555 new home permits issued in St Charles County in the most recent 12-month period, a decline of 18.54% from the prior 12-month period. Year to date through April, there have been 447 new home building permits issued in St Charles County, a decline of 27%from the same time last year and a 35.2% decline from the same time in 2016.
St Charles County housing market doesn’t appear to be the problem
The overall real estate market in St Charles County is doing pretty well with 6,013 homes sold during the 12-month period ended April 30, 2018. That is a 2.5% decline from the prior 12 month period but still shows the demand is there meaning that decline in new home building permits is most likely not market driven but perhaps more related to lack of available ground.
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New home construction, based upon building permits issued, is up overall for the 7-county area covered in St Louis by the Home Builders Association of St Louis and Eastern Missouri (HBA). For the most recent 12-month period reported for this area, through the end of February 2018, there have been 4,720 single family permits issue versus 4,579 for the prior 12-month period, an increase of 3.08%.
As the table below shows, 5 of the 7 counties reported on by the HBA have seen double-digit increases in new home construction during the past 12-months, Lincoln County and St Charles County being the exceptions. St Charles County has suffered the most, with a double-digit decrease in home sales. The St Charles decline is likely at least partially contributed to a lack of developed lots.
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Home prices in the St Louis 5-County core market increased 3.67 percent in the 12-month period ending February 28, 2018 to a median price of $186,500 from $179,900 for the prior 12-month period. During the same period, home sales in the St Louis 5-County core market increased 1.89% to 27,839 homes sold from 27,323 homes sold during the prior 12-month period.
As our table below shows, there were 1,489 homes sold during February 2018, and are currenlty 4,921 homes listed for sale, computing into a 3.3 month supply of homes for sale, continuing to favor sellers due to the low supply. A supply of around 6 months would normally result in a balanced market not favoring sellers or buyers, the likes of which we have not seen in some time.
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St Louis 5-County Core Market* Home Sales And Prices
(click the table below to be taken to current, complete report)
* St Louis City and counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin
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