For the 12-month period ended May 31, 2019, there were building permits issued for 300 new homes in Jefferson County, a decline of nearly 26% from the prior 12-month period according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri. For the same period, there were permits issued for 758 new homes in St Louis County,a decline of 23.50% from the prior 12-month period.
Warren County saw a double-digit percentage increase in building permits again this period, and the City of St Louis again had an increase.
For the 12-month period ended April 30, 2019, there were building permits issued for 757 new homes in St Louis County,a decline of 22.80% from the prior 12-month period, according to the latest data from the St Louis HBA. As the table below shows, St Charles County saw a decline of 6.38% during the same period. In February of this year, only two counties showed a downward trend in building permits, but in March that grew to 4 counties and for April, 5 of the 7 counties we are reporting on, show a decline in new home building permits. Warren County continues to show growth and an upward trend in new home construction with an increase of 20.07% in building permits during the most recent 12-month period from the prior 12-month period.
For the 12-month period ended March 31, 2019, there were building permits issued for 748 new homes in St Louis County,a decline of 23.60% from the prior 12-month period, according to the latest data from the St Louis HBA. As the table below shows, St Charles County saw a decline of 11.23% during the same period. Last month, those were the only two counties showing a downward trend, but, this month, Franklin County and the City of St Louis have also seen new home construction trend downward. Warren County again showed the greatest upward trend in new home construction with an increase of 23.66% in building permits during the most recent 12-month period from the prior 12-month period.
For the 12-month period ended February 28, 2019, there were building permits issued for 785 new homes in St Louis County,a decline of 21.11% from the prior 12-month period, according to the latest data from the St Louis HBA. As the table below shows, St Charles County saw a decline of 13.05% during the same period however the other counties reported on by the St Louis HBA are all showing increased new home building activity for the period. From a percentage standpoint, Warren County saw the biggest increase at 30.04%.
Some new home buyers believe that if they buy a new home directly from the builder or the builder’s sales person, they will get a better price. But is this true? Doyou get a better deal buying a new home directly from the builder?
First, we should address a “better deal” and what constitutes a good “deal”. If it is strictly price, then, while I think it is somewhat short-sided on the part of the buyer and falls in that “penny-wise, dollar-foolish” category, in some instances, with some builders, the builder will save some cost by you buying from their agent. This is the result of the builder having an agent that will get paid less commission that the builder would pay a buyer’s agent then if the builder chooses to pass that savings along to the buyer, rather than keep it, the buyer should receive a better price. However, just like the possible savings motivated the buyer to deal directly with the builder, it is unrealistic to think that a builder is not going to feel the same and be motivated to have a better profit margin dealing directly with the buyer and instead would choose to forego the savings and give it to the buyer in the price. Plus, most builders appreciate and understand, the vital role a buyer’s agent plays in the transaction and wants to encourage agents to show and sell their homes, so they typically avoid doing things that look like they are trying to cut an agent out of a deal by dealing directly with the buyer.
There were 4,471 building permits issued for new homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended January 31, 2019, a decline of 5.20% from the prior 12-month period when there were 4,716 permits issued, according to information just released by the Home Builders Association of St Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).
As the table below shows, St Charles County continues to see the largest decline in new home construction with 1,489 new home permits issued in the most recent 12-month period, down 13.03% from the prior 12 month period. Four counties in the St Louis area have seen gains in permits, with Warren County being the big winner in terms of percentage increase with nearly a 30 percent increase in new home permits for the period!
There were 4,140 building permits issued for new homes in the St Louis area during 2018, a decline of 3.16% from the year before when there were 4,275 permits issued, according to information just released by the Home Builders Association of St Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). The number of permits issued for new homes during 2018 was just slightly down from 2016.
As the table below shows, St Charles County has seen the largest decline in new home construction with 1,499 new home permits issued in 2018, down 12.85% from the year before and decline of 24.48% from 2016 when there were 1,985 permits issued. Franklin County, Warren County and the city of St Louis all had significant double-digit gains in building permits issued during 2018 from the year before.
The overall mortgage delinquency rate in the U.S. fell in August to the lowest level in over 12 years, according to a report just released by CoreLogic. According to the report, 4.2% of all St Louis home mortgages were 30+ days delinquent in August 2018, a decline of over 14% from a year ago when the rate was 4.9%. During the same period, seriously delinquent mortgages, those that are 90+ days late, in St Louis dropped from 1.8% a year ago to 1.4% in August 2018, according to the report.
I had lunch yesterday with a long-time friend who is a St Louis home-builder who shared with me the continually rising costs of construction he faces. Our conversation was consistent with conversations I’ve had with other builders as well, who cite a variety of things responsible for the ever-increasing costs of new home construction. The areas most often mentioned relate to regulatory and compliance issues, material prices as well as rising labor costs. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), the average cost to build a new home has inreased 56% over the past 15 years. According to the NAHB, over the past 15 years construction costs accounted for a median of 57% of the cost of a new home.
The gap between new home prices and existing home prices widens..
As the chart below illustrates, over the past 15 years, the median price of a new home has increased 68% while, as the bottom chart shows, the price of homes in the U.S. (according to the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index) has only increased 43.6% during the same period. During the past 15 years, new home prices have increased 56% more than home prices overall.
There were 4,642 new home building permits issued for the 7 counties in the St Louis area covered by the St Louis HBA during the 12-month period ended August 31, 2018, just 2 more (0.04%) than the 4,640 that were issued during the prior 12-month period, according to data from the St Louis HBA.
This would indicate that perhaps the new home building market has peaked for the time being which, given that this is the best report for this 12-month period since August 2007 when there were 5,706 permits issued in the prior 12 months, it’s not bad.
St Charles County’s Loss is Franklin County’s gain…
As the table below, which shows the building permit activity by county, illustrates, St Charles County has seen nearly a 14% decline in building permits in the past 12-months from the prior period, while Franklin County has seen nearly a 42% increase. Granted, 32.9% of all the building permits issued in the 7-county area were issued in St Charles County, but a year ago 38.3% of all the permits were issued in St Charles County.
The sale of new homes in the Midwest region of the U.S. is on the rise according to a report just released by the Census Bureau. In July, new homes in the Midwest sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 78,000 homes, an increase of 9.9% from June and an 18.2% increase from July 2017 when the rates were 66,000 homes. Year-to-date this year, though the end of July, there have been 50,000 actual new homes sold in the Midwest region, an increase of 14.2% from the same time last year when there had been 44,000 new homes sold year-to-date.
On a national level, new home sales are not performing as well as the Midwest region, but are still performing well. In July, new homes were sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000 homes, a decrease of 1.7% from the month before and an increase of 12.8% from July 2017. Year-to-date, through the end of July, there have been 401,000 new homes sold nationwide, an increase of 7.2% from the same time last year when there were 374,000 new homes sold year-to-date.
New homes sold in the Midwest region of the U.S. in June were at a seasonally-adjusted, annual rate of 71,000 homes, according to a report just released by the U.S. Department of Commerce and United States Census Bureau. June’s new home sales activity in the Midwest represents a 13.4% decline from May when new homes in the Midwest sold at an annual rate of 82,000 homes but is a 7.6% increase from June 2017 when the annual rate was 66,000 homes. Last year the rate of new home sales in this region increased every month after June up until December when it crashed but closed out the year with 72,000 new homes sold.
In terms of the actual number of new homes sold this year in the Midwest region, there have been 44,000 new homes sold this year thus far, through the end of June. Last year, for the same time period, there were just 38,000 new homes sold in this region year to date so we are up 14.4% in non-seasonally adjusted, actual year to date new home sales in the Midwest through the end of June.
As the table below shows, for the most recent 12-months that new home building permit data is available for from the Home Builders Association of St Louis & Eastern Missouri, there have been 4,610 new home building permits issued in the 7 counties they report on. This is just slightly less than was issued for the prior 12-month period ending April 2017, when there were 4,625 permits issued.
St Charles County New Home Building Permit Trend Continues to Fall…
There were 1,555 new home permits issued in St Charles County in the most recent 12-month period, a decline of 18.54% from the prior 12-month period. Year to date through April, there have been 447 new home building permits issued in St Charles County, a decline of 27%from the same time last year and a 35.2% decline from the same time in 2016.
St Charles County housing market doesn’t appear to be the problem
The overall real estate market in St Charles County is doing pretty well with 6,013 homes sold during the 12-month period ended April 30, 2018. That is a 2.5% decline from the prior 12 month period but still shows the demand is there meaning that decline in new home building permits is most likely not market driven but perhaps more related to lack of available ground.
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New home construction, based upon building permits issued, is up overall for the 7-county area covered in St Louis by the Home Builders Association of St Louis and Eastern Missouri (HBA). For the most recent 12-month period reported for this area, through the end of February 2018, there have been 4,720 single family permits issue versus 4,579 for the prior 12-month period, an increase of 3.08%.
As the table below shows, 5 of the 7 counties reported on by the HBA have seen double-digit increases in new home construction during the past 12-months, Lincoln County and St Charles County being the exceptions. St Charles County has suffered the most, with a double-digit decrease in home sales. The St Charles decline is likely at least partially contributed to a lack of developed lots.
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Home prices in the St Louis 5-County core market increased 3.67 percent in the 12-month period ending February 28, 2018 to a median price of $186,500 from $179,900 for the prior 12-month period. During the same period, home sales in the St Louis 5-County core market increased 1.89% to 27,839 homes sold from 27,323 homes sold during the prior 12-month period.
As our table below shows, there were 1,489 homes sold during February 2018, and are currenlty 4,921 homes listed for sale, computing into a 3.3 month supply of homes for sale, continuing to favor sellers due to the low supply. A supply of around 6 months would normally result in a balanced market not favoring sellers or buyers, the likes of which we have not seen in some time.
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St Louis 5-County Core Market* Home Sales And Prices
(click the table below to be taken to current, complete report)
* St Louis City and counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin
New home construction in the St Louis area is off to a good start for 2018 with a total of 326 building permits for new homes being issued during January for the 7-county St Louis area reported on by the Home Builders Association of Eastern Missouri. This permit activity in January represents an 11% increase over the activity in January 2017 when there were 293 new home permits issued. During the month of January 2018, 4 of 7 counties saw an increase in building permits from January 2017 (Jefferson County +26%, Franklin County +143%, Warren County +1%, St Louis City +371%) while the remaining 3 saw declines (St Louis County -25%, St Charles County -10%, Lincoln County -29%).
It takes more than a month for a trend…
Just like I often comment with regard to home prices and sales, looking at a single month of activity really does not paint the whole picture and, while it may be a good “leading-indicator” of where things are headed, it’s not going to accurately depict a trend. For this, I believe looking at the past 12-month period and comparing it to the prior 12-month period is more accurate. It takes into account the seasonal fluctuations that occur and adjust for unseasonal weather during a given month that could skew the data if just looking at a one-month period. The table belows the total building permits for the 12-month period ending January 31, 2018 and comparies that activity to the prior 12-month period for each of the 7-counties reported on. As you can see, five of the counties have a double-digit increase in new home building permits issued from the prior 12-month period while St Charles County shows a double-digit decline, and Lincoln County a slight decline.
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New Home Building Permits- St Louis Area – January 2018
New home construction in the St Louis and surrounding areas for the first three quarters of this year is up slightly from the same time last year, according to the latest permit data from the Home Builders Association of Greater St Louis. However, as the table below shows, only 4 of the 7 counties reviewed had an increase in building permits while the other three, including the county with the greatest number of building permits, St Charles County, saw a decline.
St Louis Area New Home Building Permits – Year to Date Through September 30, 2017
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The U.S. Department of Commerce just released it’s 2016 CHARACTERISTICS OF NEW HOUSING in which it revealed features, amenities, prices, sizes, etc of new homes built and sold during 2016 in the United States. You can see all the data in the complete report for the U.S. by clicking on the link however I’m going to just focus on the homes built here in the midwest region.
There were 69,000 new homessold (single-family) here in the Midwest Region of the United States, down from a peak of 205,000 in 2005. Eleven percent of the single-family homes sold were attached homes (8,000) and the remaining eighty-nine-percent (62,000) were detached homes, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Facts and Figures For New Homes Sold In The Midwest during 2016:
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Happy home builders? Wow, I remember those days, back before the real estate bubble and market collapse, boy were those the days! Well, the good news is, while builders still have their challenges, according to the latest Housing Market Index (HMI) from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), builders in the Midwest are more optimistic about the new home market than they have ever been! (or, at least since the beginning of the regional level index records that are published).
The NAHB Housing Market Index is based upon results of a survey done of the builders and other members of the National Association of Home Builders in which members are asked to rate market conditions in 3 ways:
The sale of new homes at the present time
How they feel about selling new homes over the coming six months
The traffic of prospective buyers through their new home displays and developments.
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New home sales in the midwest region of the U.S. during August 2016, increased 39.7 percent to a seasonally-adjusted, annual rate, of 81,000 new homes from a rate of 58,000 homes a year ago.
Nationally, new home sales during August were at a seasonally-adjusted, annual rate, of 609,000 homes, an increase of 20.6 percent from a year ago. The midwest region saw the greatest gains in new home sales during the period with the west region coming in second with a 35% increase from a year ago, then the south region with a 15.0% increase. The northeast region saw a 25.8% decrease in new home sales from a year ago.
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New home construction in August increased in the midwest region of the U.S. by 10.5 percent from a year ago to a seasonally-adjusted, annual rate of 116,000 homes. August new home construction activity in the midwest was up 6.4 percent from the month before as well when homes were constructed at a rate of 109,000 homes per year. This according to a report released today by the U.S. Department of Commerce.
In terms of actual (as opposed to seasonally-adjusted annual rates) new home starts, year to date there have been 80,000 new homes started, an increase of 13.6% from the same time last year when there were 70,400 new homes started.
On a national level, in August 2016, construction was started on new homes at a seasonally-adjusted, annual, rate of 722,000 homes, a decline of 6.0 percent from the month before and a decline of 1.2 percent from August 2015 when homes were started at an annual rate of 731,000 homes.
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New home construction in the midwest region of the U.S. occurred at a, seasonally-adjusted, annual rate of 112,000 homes in July, down 2.6% from the month before and down 6.7% from July 2015 when the rate of new home starts in the midwest was at 115,000 homes, according to a report released by the U.S. Department of Commerce. In terms of actual (as opposed to seasonally-adjusted annual rates) new home starts, year to date there have been 69,100 new homes started, an increase of 15% from the same time last year when there were 60,000 new homes started.
On a national level, in July 2016, construction was started on new homes at a seasonally-adjusted, annual, rate of 770,000 homes, the highest rate since February 2016 when it was 845,000, just about the same rate as in June and up 1.3% from July 2015 when the rate was 760,000 homes.
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New home sales in the midwest region of the U.S. , like the temperature during the period, soared in June 2016 to a seasonally-adjusted, annual rate, of 85,000 new homes, an increase of 44.1 percent from June 2015 when new homes in the midwest sold at an annual rate of 59,000 homes, according to a report just released by the US Census Bureau.
Last month, new homes were sold in the Midwest at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 85,000 new homes, and an increase of 10.4% from the month before when new homes sold in the midwest at a rate of 77,000 homes.
On a national level, new homes sales last month were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000 homes, an increase of 3.5% from the month before and an increase of 25.4% from a year ago. Nationally, there is a 4.9 month supply of new homes, down slightly from 5.1 months in May and from 5.5 months a year ago.
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The median price of a new home in the U.S. in 2011 was $227,200 and this year, thus far, the median price is $288,000, an increase of 26.7 percent in that five-year period, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. During this same period, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as the chart below illustrates, rose just 6.1%. So why did the median price of new homes during this period rise over 4 times as much as the rate of inflation?
What is driving new home prices up?
The two major components to the cost of a new home are construction cost and finished lot cost. Presently, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), 61.8% of the price of a new home is construction cost and 18.2% is attributable to the cost of a finished lot. Both of these costs, which account for about 80% of the cost of a new home, have been severely impacted by costs associated with every increasing government regulations. In fact, as the chart below shows, regulatory costs for a new home increased almost 30 percent (29.8%) from 2011 to 2016 while, as I mentioned previously, CPI only increased 6.1%.
What about builder profit margins, are they to blame for higher prices?
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New home sales in the midwest region of the U.S. during March rose 10.3 percent from March 2015, according to a report just released by the US Census Bureau. In March 2016, new homes were sold in the Midwest at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 64,000 new homes, an increase of 18.5 percent from February, when the rate was 54,000 homes and a 10.3 percent increase from March 2015 when the rate of new home sales in the midwest was 58,000 homes annually.
On a national level, new homes sales in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 511,000 homes, down 1.5% from February and up just 5.4% from a year ago.
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New home construction in the midwest region of the U.S. continued strong in March with home builders beginning construction on new homes at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 123,000 home, a 41.4% increase from March 2015 when the new home start rate was 87,000 homes. March’s rate was a decline of 21.2 from February when an increase of nearly 90 percent from the year before sent the annual rate to 153,000 homes.
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Home builders began construction on new homes in the Midwest region of the U.S. in February at a pace of 153,000 new homes annually, an 88.9% increase from February 2015 when new home starts in the midwest was at an annual rate of 81,000 homes. February’s spike in new home construction was an 18.6% increase from January’s annual rate of 129,000 homes.
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New home sales in the U.S. in November rose 9.1 percent from a year ago, and increased 4.3 percent from the month before, according to a report just released by the U.S. Commerce Department. In the midwest region however, new home sales slid in November, falling 8.6% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 53,000 homes from 58,000 the month before and decreasing 10.2 percent from November 2014 when new home sales in the midwest were at an annual rate of 59,000 homes.
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Dodge Data & Analytics just released a report on “Green and Healthier Homes” in which it was revealed that many builders are seeing building green as a way to increase business and new home sales. In fact, according to the report, 83 percent of homebuilders and remodelers believe consumers are willing to pay more for a healthier home. This shows quite a change over the past decade as around 2005 I was developing quite a few residential properties and looked into the idea of adding some “green” features to some developments. This led me to Denver to tour many green loft projects and to return to St Louis all fired up on going green on a loft development I was planning. The problem is, as I dug into it and began researching the market and getting feedback on pricing, I found that while a high percentage of buyers said they would like to have the features, almost no one, said they were willing to pay anything extra to get it, much less the 5% or so we were projecting it would cost. Changing times I guess…
Highlights from the report:
Nearly one third of home builders (31%) report that they are currently doing more than 60% of their projects green, and over half (51%) expect to be doing that level of green work by 2020.
Over three quarters (77%) of builders report that building green costs 5% or more than the cost to build a standard home, and an even high percentage of remodelers (83%) agree.
New home sales in the U.S. in September lost some steam declining 11.5 percent from August, however, let’s not forget, August was a record month for U.S. New Home Sales which sold at the highest annual rate since February of 2008, according to a report just released by the U.S. Commerce Department. New homes sold in September at a seasonally-adjusted, annual-rate, of 468,000 homes, a decrease of 11.5 percent from the month before an an increase of 2.0 percent from September 2014 when new homes sold at an annual rate of 459,000 homes.
Midwest New Home Sales Fall For Second Month in a Row..
Here in the midwest region, new homes sold in September at a seasonally-adjusted, annual-rate, of 55,000 homes, a decline of 8.3 percent from August and also a decline 8.3 percent from September 2014 when new homes sold in the Midwest region at a rate of 60,000 homes per year.
The new home supply in the United States increased in September 18.4 percent to 5.8 months from a 4.9 month supply the month before and increased 5.5 percent from September 2014 when there was a 5.5 month supply.
New home prices rose 2.6% in September to a median price of $296,900 from $289,100 the month before and is 13.5% higher than a year ago when the median price of new homes sold in the U.S. was $261,500.
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Missouri Online Real Estate, Inc. 3636 South Geyer Road - Suite 100, St Louis, MO 63127 314-414-6000 - Licensed Real Estate Broker in Missouri
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