By Dennis Norman, on August 4th, 2022 During the 14 year period prior to the housing bubble bursting in 2008, there were 92,065 building permits issued for new single family homes in the 3 most active home building counties in St Louis. As the table shows below, over half the permits issued during that period were in St Charles County alone, with the other half in the counties of St Louis and Jefferson.
Needless to say, when the housing bubble burst in 2008 and the market collapsed, new home construction came to a screeching halt. However, after about 5 years, the market quickly regained lost ground and for the past several years it seems home builders couldn’t build homes fast enough. We’ve had a low inventory of homes for sale for so long it’s starting to seem normal. But still, over 14 years have passed since the bubble burst and we are still way behind on new home construction. In the 14-year period after the bubble burst, there have been 40.528 building permits issued for new single family homes in the St Louis area counties mentioned above, a decline of nearly 56% from the prior 14-year period.
St Louis New Home Building Permits -1994 through 2007 and 2008 through 2021
By Dennis Norman, on August 3rd, 2022 There were 4,516 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended June 30, 2022, a decrease of 12.05% from the same period a year ago when there were 5,135 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). Five of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago with three of the counties have a double digit decline.
St Louis New Home Building Permits -June 2022
By Dennis Norman, on July 27th, 2022 According to the latest data from HUD and the US Census Bureau, there is a 9.3 month supply of new homes for sale in the U.S. as of June, 2022. As the chart below illustrates, this is the largest supply of new homes for sale since May 2010 when there was also a 9.3 month supply. It wasn’t that long ago, August 2020 to be exact, when the supply hit a record low level of 3.3 months.
St Louis New Home Supply is a little lower…
It’s a little hard to pinpoint the new home supply in St Louis for several reasons. One, not all new homes that are for sale are listed in the MLS and then the MLS allows new homes to be listed in two categories, both new construction and normal residential, so that can skew the data as well. Nonetheless, we do the best we can to sort through the data. As our table at the bottom shows, there is currently a little over a 7-month supply of new homes for sale in St Louis, so still higher than a historical “norm” but about 2-months less than at the national level.
Continue reading “Supply of New Homes For Sale Reaches Highest Level In Over 12 Years“
By Dennis Norman, on June 10th, 2022 There were 5,138 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended April 30, 2022, a decrease of 9.69% from the same period a year ago when there were 5,138 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). Four of the seven counties covered in the report saw a double-digit decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago.
St Louis New Home Building Permits -April 2022
By Dennis Norman, on June 10th, 2022 Given the low-inventory of homes for sale that has existed for some time now, it may be hard to believe my next statement, but the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD show that there is currently a 9-month supply of newly constructed homes in the U.S. As the chart below illustrates, this is the highest level the supply of new homes in the U.S. has reached since May 2010 when there was a 9.3 month supply.
The months supply of depicted below is calculated as the ratio of new homes for sale to the number of new homes sold. The resulting number represents the number of months it would take for the current new home inventory that is for sale to be depleted given the current sales rate if no new additional new homes were built.
Months Supply of New Homes In The U.S.
(click chart for live, interactive chart)
By Dennis Norman, on May 18th, 2022 The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) in conjunction with Wells Fargo publishes their House Market Index (HMI) monthly which reveals the sentiment of home builders about the market. In the report released yesterday, the HMI fell 8 points to 69, marking the fifth month in a row that builder sentiment as declined and becoming the lowest level for builder sentiment since June 2020.
It may not be all that bad though…
As it true with most data, it’s all relative. With this in mind, this may be the 5th straight month that builder sentiment has fallen however, as the chart below illustrates at a level of 69 builder sentiment is still at a level that is historically high. Since the inception of the HMI in January of 1985 the median value of the index is 56 so at 69 we’re still well above the overall median. In the last 10 years, the median of the HMI Index has been 63 so the current level is also above that.
NAHB House Market Index (HMI)
By Dennis Norman, on May 14th, 2022 There were 4,699 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended March 31, 2022, a decrease of 6.86% from the same period a year ago when there were 5,045 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). Four of the seven counties covered in the report saw a double-digit decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago.
St Louis New Home Building Permits -March 2022
By Dennis Norman, on April 15th, 2022 Yesterday, I wrote an article addressing the high rate of inflation just reported and its impact on the St Louis housing market. In it, I promised to take a deeper look into the effect of the current events related to the economy on St Louis home prices which I will do in this article.
Before I go further, I should mention I’m not an economist nor a fortune teller. I am, however, a real estate broker and data nerd that has spent over 40 years in the St Louis real estate industry. I try my best to use my knowledge and experience to anticipate changes in the market and use this to help our agents and clients use this information to their advantage.
History always repeats itself..
I find the above old adage to be pretty accurate when it comes to the real estate market. Therefore, in trying to get my head around what impact a high inflation rate may have on home prices, I started by going back to prior periods of high inflation rates.
The first chart below shows the rate of inflation, interest rates, and the St Louis home price index. I’ve made some notes on it to show prior inflationary periods and the effect on home prices. The first period, the early 80s was much worse than today as inflation was higher and interest rates were in the stratosphere hitting 18%. The more recent period around 2007-2009 was not as severe and therefore the impact on home prices was not as dramatic as the former either. As you can see on the far right side of the chart, home prices have increased in the past several months at a sharp rate with the change from a year ago being greater than the last inflationary period but not as great as the one from the early ’80s.
The next chart shows the relationship between home prices and rent. When home prices outpace rent, home prices decline, when rent outpaces home prices, prices rise. As the chart shows, these two lines have converged indicating a reasonable balance between home prices and rent.
During the period of 2007 – 2011 home prices fell over 17% during a four year period before finally bottoming out.
Today is different though…
Continue reading “How Much Will St Louis Home Prices Be Impacted By Inflation?“
By Dennis Norman, on April 7th, 2022 There were 4,669 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended February 28, 2022, a decrease of 5.8% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,956 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). Four of the seven counties covered in the report saw a double-digit decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago.
St Louis New Home Building Permits -February 2022
By Dennis Norman, on March 16th, 2022 There were 4,743 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended January 31, 2022, a decrease of 2.5% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,864 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). Four of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago. Warren, Lincoln, and St Charles County had a double-digit decrease.
St Louis New Home Building Permits -January 2022
By Dennis Norman, on February 2nd, 2022 There were 4,825 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during 2021 which is 9 more permits than were issued in 2020, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). For the past few years, St Louis has experienced a strong seller’s market due to the low supply of homes for sale.
This demand certainly seems to be something that would encourage builders to increase the number of homes being built significantly. However, there are many challenges facing St Louis builders today that prevents this. The challenges include a shortage of developed lots, or even ground in areas of demand, as well as increased construction costs, a result of regulatory issues, material prices and construction worker’s wages. If the builder can deal with the increased prices, then there are supply chain issues and labor shortages to deal with as well. Selling new homes is pretty easy today, the challenge is developing them.
St Louis New Home Building Permits -December 2021
By Dennis Norman, on January 15th, 2022 There were 4,851 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended November 30, 2021, an increase of 3.17% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,702 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). Three of the seven counties covered in the report saw an increase in building permits from the same period a year ago, two of those, Franklin County and the City of St Louis, a double-digit increase.
St Louis New Home Building Permits -November 2021
By Dennis Norman, on December 10th, 2021 There were 4,838 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended October 31, 2021, an increase of 2.98% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,698 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). Four of the seven counties covered in the report saw an increase in building permits from the same period a year ago, three with a double-digit increase. St Charles County continues to show a trend of a slight decline in permits with this period falling short of the 12-month period ended last month.
St Louis New Home Building Permits -October 2021
By Dennis Norman, on November 15th, 2021 There were 4,938 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended September 30, 2021, an increase of 6.38% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,642 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). Five of the seven counties covered in the report saw an increase in building permits from the same period a year ago, three with a double-digit increase. St Charles County continues to show a trend of a slight decline in permits with this period falling short of the 12-month period ended last month.
St Louis New Home Building Permits -September 2021
By Dennis Norman, on October 9th, 2021 There were 4,926 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended August 31, 2021, an increase of 6.44% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,628 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). Six of the seven counties covered in the report saw an increase in building permits from the same period a year ago, half of them with a double-digit increase and the other half with a slight increase. St Charles County saw new home permits fall by 1.18% from 1,777 permits to 1,756 permits during the period.
St Louis New Home Building Permits -August 2021
By Dennis Norman, on August 6th, 2021 There were 5,135 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended June 30, 2021 an increase of 12.91% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,548 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). After all seven counties seeing an increase in building permits from the prior period for the prior 4 months, this month six counties covered in the report saw an increase in building permits from the same period a year ago. Also worth noting is that the 12-month total number of permits dropped slightly in June from May’s 5,201 permits and was also just slightly below April’s 5,138 permits.
St Louis New Home Building Permits – June 2021
By Dennis Norman, on July 27th, 2021 In the past couple of days there have been many news reports about new home sales in the U.S. declining and reaching a 14-month low based upon the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau. As the table below shows, the reports are accurate as new home sales for June 2021 in the U.S. were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 676,000 homes, the lowest annual rate in 14-months and a rate that is 6.6% lower than May and 19.4% lower than June 2020.. However, the good news for us here in the Midwest Region is, the same table shows that for our region new home sales in June 2021 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 92,000 homes, an increase of 5.7% from the rate for May 2021 and an increase of 7.0% from June 2020. All of the other regions, as well as the U.S. as a whole, saw a decline in annual rate from the month before as well as the year before.
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Continue reading “New Home Sales In Midwest Outperforming Other Regions“
By Dennis Norman, on June 29th, 2021 There were 5,201 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended May 31, 2021 an increase of 17.19% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,438 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). For the forth month in a row, All seven counties covered in the report saw an increase in building permits from the same period a year ago and with double-digit increases in all counties except Franklin.
St Louis New Home Building Permits – May 2021
By Dennis Norman, on June 3rd, 2021 There were 5,138 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended April 30, 2021 an increase of 13.67% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,520 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). For the forth month in a row, All seven counties covered in the report saw an increase in building permits from the same period a year ago and with double-digit increases for six of the seven counties. Lincoln County, for the fourth consecutive month, saw the largest increase at 53.8% followed by St Louis City at 29.32%.
St Louis New Home Building Permits – April 2021
By Dennis Norman, on May 11th, 2021 While lately there’s been a lot of talk about the skyrocketing lumber prices and the impact on the cost of a new home but that’s not the only thing impacting the price of new homes. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) recently released the results of its 2021 Land Developer Survey on Regulatory Costs which, as the detailed table below shows, the average total cost of regulatory items in the price of a new home is $93,870. The NAHB in the same report indicates the average price of a new home is currently $397,300 so the cost of complying with regulatory issues makes up nearly 25%of the price (23.8%) of a new home.
The second table below breaks out the regulatory costs between ground development and home construction and, as it illustrates, the costs are fairly evenly divided between the two with ground development experiencing 10.5% cost for regulatory compliances and construction of the home itself 13.3%.
Continue reading “Nearly One-Fourth The Cost of a New Home is the result of regulatory costs“
By Dennis Norman, on May 11th, 2021 There were 5,045 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended March 31, 2021 an increase of over 10.5% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,564 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). For the forth month in a row, All seven counties covered in the report saw an increase in building permits from the same period a year ago and with double-digit increases for four counties. Lincoln County, for the third consecutive month, saw the largest increase at 60.78% followed by Warren County at 17.61%.
St Louis New Home Building Permits – March 2021
By Dennis Norman, on May 3rd, 2021 There were a total of 7,863 residential building permits issued in the St Louis MSA during 2020 with 5,719 of this being for single-family homes both of which represent the highest number of building permits issued since 2007. As the table below shows, there were 110 building permits issued for 2-unit buildings, 57 permits for 3-4 unit buildings and nearly 2,000 (1,977) issued for buildings with 5 units or more last year.
We’re not even close to the early 2000’s though…
As the chart below does such a great job of illustrating, even though the number of residential building permits in St Louis has increased significantly from hitting bottom in 2011 as a result of the 2008 housing bubble burst, we are still not close to the levels before the crash. For the 13 years proceeding the housing bubble burst in 2008, the median number of residential building permits issued in the St Louis MSA in a year was 10,381 permits, 81% more than our “record” year last year.
The “New” Trend?
On the bottom chart, there is a red line which represents the linear trend line for single-family building permits, which on a positive note, does show the number of permits issued in the last 4 years or so bucking the downward trend.
Is it any wonder the inventory of homes for sale is so low?
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Continue reading “St Louis New Home Building Permits Issued In 2020 At Highest Level In 13 Years“
By Dennis Norman, on April 16th, 2021 With the inventory of homes for sale remaining at historically low levels for the last couple of years home buyers may be wondering why there aren’t more new homes being built? Actually, in St Louis, new home construction has been increasing at a pretty good rate but it appears more homes can be absorbed by the market than are being built.
The answer to why more homes are not being built is probably the result of many things such as a lack of available ground in areas that are in demand, a shortage of contractors and tradesmen, the complication of, and cost related to regulatory compliance and the ever increasing cost of building materials. The cost of many building materials has increased significantly but lumber prices, which is a major component of a new home in many ways, have just shot into the stratosphere. As the chart below shows, the Producer Price Index for lumber and wood products shot up to 441 in March, an increase of 84% from a year ago.
According the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) the price increases in lumber have caused the price of an average home to increase by $24,000 since April 2020 just to cover this increased cost.
Producer Price Index by Commodity: Lumber and Wood Products: Softwood Lumber
(click on chart for live chart and more data)
By Dennis Norman, on April 9th, 2021 There were 4,956 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended February 28, 2021 an increase of 11.0% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,465 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). For the forth month in a row, All seven counties covered in the report saw an increase in building permits from the same period a year ago and with double-digit increases for four counties. Lincoln County saw the largest increase at 63.64% followed by St Louis County at 14.64%.
St Louis New Home Building Permits – February 2021
By Dennis Norman, on March 5th, 2021 There were 4,864 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended January 31, 2021, an increase of 9.6% from a year ago when there were 4,438 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). For the second month in a row, Like last month, all seven counties covered in the report saw an increase in building permits during the most recent 12-month period from the prior 12-month period. Lincoln County saw the largest increase at 52.7% followed by Franklin County at 17.69%.
St Louis New Home Building Permits –
January 2021
By Dennis Norman, on February 19th, 2021 I would say for pretty much most of the 40-years I’ve been in the real estate business in St Louis, one-story homes have been popular. The trend shifted with new homes however as undeveloped ground became more scarce and demand for larger homes grew, which led to two-story homes gaining in popularity. There are of course other styles, such as 1.5 story homes, 2.5 or 3 story homes, and multi-level homes, but one and two-story are the most plentiful.
One-story homes outsell 2-story homes by nearly 3-1:
As the tables below show, in the St Louis MSA during the past months, there have been 11,898 1-story homes sold, 2.7 times as many 2-story homes sold during the same period. With 4,380 2-story homes sold this was nearly double the next most popular style, 1.5 story homes of which 2,370 sold.
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One-story homes sold the fastest:
The popular 1-story home also sold faster than other styles, taking a median time of just 27 days to sell while 1.5 story homes took 38 days and 2-story homes 32 days.
Two-story homes that sold were the youngest:
The one-story homes that sold were a median age of 54 years, while the median age of the two-story homes was just 31 years.
St Louis MSA Home Styles Sold – Past 6 Months
(click on table for live, current data)
1 -Story Homes
1.5 -Story Homes
2 -Story Homes
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By Dennis Norman, on February 6th, 2021 There were 4,816 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during 2020, an increase of 9.11% from 2019 when there were 4,414 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). For the second month in a row, All seven counties covered in the report saw an increase in building permits during 2020 from 2019 and with double-digit increases for four counties. Franklin County saw the largest increase at 19.40% followed by Lincoln County at 13.97%.
St Louis New Home Building Permits – December 2020
By Dennis Norman, on October 8th, 2020 There were4,628 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during July, an increase of 9.56% from a year ago when there were 4,224 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). For the second month in a row, Five of the seven counties covered in the report saw an increase in building permits from a year ago with three of them in the double digits. Franklin County saw the largest increase at 25.69% and Lincoln County experienced the largest decrease at 13.97%.
St Louis New Home Building Permits – August 2020
By Dennis Norman, on September 3rd, 2020 There were 4,573 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during July, an increase of 7.0% from a year ago when there were 4,271 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). For the second month in a row, Franklin County saw the largest percentage increase in building permits from a year ago with an increase of 27.59% from July 2019. St Louis County, which a decrease in permits last month from a year ago, so nearly an 11% increase in July 2020 from July 2019.
St Louis New Home Building Permits – July 2020
By Dennis Norman, on July 29th, 2020 There were 4,468 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during June, an increase of 5.9% from a year ago when there were 4,219 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA). However, the increase in new home construction activity was not shared equally around the St Louis area as the counties of St Charles, Jefferson, and Franklin all saw double-digit increases while the other four counties saw declines.
St Louis New Home Building Permits – June 2020
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