The last couple of months I have said that, “unless something changes dramatically, 2011 will hit a new record low of new home starts. Well, unfortunately, even though the report for September shows an increase of 1.7 percent in housing starts, the seasonally adjusted annual rate is still at just 425,000 homes and still on track for 2011 to be a record low year for housing starts.
The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued their report on New Residential Construction for September 2011 showing a slight decrease in single-family home building permits from the month before of 0.2 percent and a 1.7 percent increase in new home starts compared to the month before.
Highlights from the September 2011 Report:
- Building permits issued for single-family residences were at an annual rate of 417,000 homes which is 0.2 percent below the prior month and an increase of 3.5 percent from a year before.
- Housing starts for single-family residences were at an annual rate of 425,000 which is an increase of 1.7 percent from the prior month and a decrease of 4.9 percent from a year before.
- Homes completed were at an annual rate of 428,000 homes, which is a decrease of 11.6 percent from the prior month and a decrease of 11.9 percent from a year before.
As I say every month, we need to remember that all the numbers above are “seasonally adjusted” annual rates and the year over year comparisons are just comparing the numbers for the current month versus the a year before. Another way I like to look at where things stand is to simply look at the year to date data; actual numbers, not seasonally adjusted, compared to last years ytd numbers at this same time. I think this may give a little better comparison so those numbers are below:
- For 2011 there have been 320,500 permits issued for new homes compared with 354,800 this time year for a decrease of 9.7 percent.
- For 2011 there have been 330,300 new homes started compared with 375,600 this time last year for a decrease of 12.0 percent.
- For 2011 there have been 320,100 new homes completed compared with 368,900 this time last year for a decrease of 13.2 percent.
Let’s do one of my favorite things and look at the raw numbers and not seasonally-adjusted numbers to compare construction activity to sales:
- In the 12 month period through August 2011 (the most recent period sales data is available for) there were 303,000 new homes sold and there were 452,900 new homes completed, outpacing sales by 49.5 percent.
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