The last couple of months I have said that, “unless something changes dramatically, 2011 will hit a new record low of new home starts. Well, unfortunately, even though the report for October shows an increase of 3.9 percent in housing starts, the seasonally adjusted annual rate is still at just 430,000 homes and still on track for 2011 to be a record low year for housing starts.
The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued their report on New Residential Construction for October 2011 showing an increase in single-family home building permits from the month before of 5.1percent and a 3.9 percent increase in new home starts compared to the month before.
Highlights from the October 2011 Report:
- Building permits issued for single-family residences were at an annual rate of 434,000 homes which is 5.1 percent above the prior month and an increase of 6.6 percent from a year before.
- Housing starts for single-family residences were at an annual rate of 430,000 which is an increase of 3.9 percent from the prior month and a decrease of 0.9 percent from a year before.
- Homes completed were at an annual rate of 453,000 homes, which is an increase of 7.1 percent from the prior month and a decrease of 5.4 percent from a year before.
As I say every month, we need to remember that all the numbers above are “seasonally adjusted” annual rates and the year over year comparisons are just comparing the numbers for the current month versus the a year before. Another way I like to look at where things stand is to simply look at the year to date data; actual numbers, not seasonally adjusted, compared to last years ytd numbers at this same time. I think this may give a little better comparison so those numbers are below:
- For 2011 there have been 354,200 permits issued for new homes compared with 386,500 this time year for a decrease of 8.3 percent.
- For 2011 there have been 366,100 new homes started compared with 411,600 this time last year for a decrease of 11.1 percent.
- For 2011 there have been 361,300 new homes completed compared with 416,600 this time last year for a decrease of 12.6 percent.
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