St. Louis Sees 4.87% Rise in Single-Family Home Permits Over the Past Year

During the 12-month period ending April 30, 2024, a total of 4,071 building permits were issued for new single-family homes in the St. Louis area. This marks a 4.87% increase from the previous 12 months, which recorded 3,882 permits. According to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St. Louis HBA), four of the seven counties covered in the report experienced an increase in permits, three of which were in the double digits. Lincoln County saw the largest percentage increase at 37.66%. Conversely, the City of St. Louis experienced the largest decrease, with an 18.36% decline.

  

St Louis New Home Building Permits – April 2024

(click on table below for page with live charts showing additional permit data)St Louis New Home Building Permits - April 2024

 

Supreme Court Affirms Property Rights in SHEETZ v. COUNTY OF EL DORADO

The Supreme Court has rendered a unanimous decision in the landmark case SHEETZ v. COUNTY OF EL DORADO, involving petitioner George Sheetz and the imposition of a traffic impact fee by El Dorado County, California. The key points of the decision are as follows:

Background: George Sheetz was mandated to pay a $23,420 traffic impact fee as a condition for obtaining a residential building permit, which he contested as an unlawful exaction under the Takings Clause.

Court’s Decision: The Supreme Court, in an opinion delivered by Justice Barrett, vacated the ruling of the California Court of Appeal. The decision clarified that the Takings Clause does not differentiate between legislative and administrative land-use permit conditions, reinforcing property rights protections against arbitrary government exactions.

Legal Principles Invoked: The Court applied the tests from Nollan v. California Coastal Comm’n and Dolan v. City of Tigard, emphasizing that permit conditions must both have an “essential nexus” to the government’s land-use interest and be “roughly proportional” to the impacts of the proposed development.

Impact and Precedent: The ruling underscores the necessity for governmental authorities, whether legislative or administrative, to adhere strictly to constitutional principles when imposing conditions on building permits. This decision is a significant affirmation of property rights, setting a precedent that both legislative and administrative exactions are subject to the same constitutional scrutiny.

This decision marks a critical juncture in property law, reaffirming the Supreme Court’s commitment to protecting individual property rights against overreach by local governments.


Supreme Court Decision: SHEETZ v. COUNTY OF EL DORADO

(Click below to view the entire decision)

Supreme Court Decision: SHEETZ v. COUNTY OF EL DORADO

St Louis Area New Home Building Permits Decline In All Counties Except St Charles

During the 12-month period ending February 29, 2024, there were 3,993 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St. Louis area. This figure marks a 4.29% decrease from the previous 12-month period, which saw 4,172 permits issued, as per the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St. Louis HBA). The downturn was observed in all counties except St Charles County, with three of them experiencing double-digit declines.

  

St Louis New Home Building Permits – February 2024

(click on table below for page with live charts showing additional permit data)St Louis New Home Building Permits - February 2024

 

St Louis New Home Constructions Begins 2024 Down From a Year Ago

In the 12-month period ended January 31, 2024 the St. Louis area saw the issuance of 3,996 building permits for new single-family homes. This represents a decline of 3.64% compared to the previous 12-month period, which had 4,147 permits, according to the latest figures from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St. Louis HBA). This downward trend was noted across all counties with the exception of St. Charles County, with two counties reporting double-digit decreases.


  

St Louis New Home Building Permits – January 2024

(click on table below for page with live charts showing additional permit data)St Louis New Home Building Permits - January 2024

 

Despite High Demand and Low Inventory, St. Louis New Home Permits Hit Nine-Year Low in 2023

In 2023, the St. Louis area saw the issuance of 3,891 building permits for new single-family homes. This represents a decline of 10.78% compared to the previous year, which had 4,361 permits, according to the latest figures from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St. Louis HBA). This downward trend was noted across all counties with the exception of St. Charles County, where five counties reported double-digit decreases. Additionally, Warren County, which had been on a four-month streak of increased permit activity, experienced a slight drop this month. The total of 3,891 permits in 2023 is the lowest the St. Louis area has seen since 2014, when 3,843 permits were issued. Furthermore, this total is nearly 17% below the 20-year average of 4,680 permits annually and 11% below the 20-year median of 4,375 permits.


  

St Louis New Home Building Permits – December 2023

(click on table below for page with live charts showing additional permit data)

 

New Single-Family Home Permits Dip by 14.71% in St. Louis Area; Warren County Bucks the Trend

During the 12-month period ending November 30, 2023, there were 3,932 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St. Louis area. This figure marks a 14.71% decrease from the previous 12-month period, which saw 4,515 permits issued, as per the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St. Louis HBA). The downturn was observed in all counties except Warren County, with five of them experiencing double-digit declines. Warren County notably reported an increase in building permits for the fourth consecutive month.


  

St Louis New Home Building Permits – November 2023

(click on table below for page with live charts showing additional permit data)St Louis New Home Building Permits - November 2023

 

Majority of St. Louis Counties Experience Drop in New Home Building Permits

There were 3,932 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended October 31, 2023.  This represents a decline of 12.60% from the prior 12-month period, during which 4,499 permits were issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).  Five of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decline in building permits from the previous period with 4 of them seeing double digit declines.  Warren County, on the other hand, saw a slight increase in permit activity for the third month in a row.


  

St Louis New Home Building Permits – October 2023

(click on table below for page with live charts showing additional permit data)St Louis New Home Building Permits - October 2023

 

Nearly All St Louis Counties Continue Downward Trend in New Home Building Permits

There were 3,905 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended September 30, 2023.  This represents a decline of 13.20% from the prior 12-month period, during which 4,499 permits were issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).  Six of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decline in building permits from the previous period with 4 of them seeing double digit declines.  Warren County, on the other hand, saw a slight increase in permit activity for the second month in a row.

  

St Louis New Home Building Permits – September 2023

(click on table below for page with live charts showing additional permit data)St Louis New Home Building Permits - September 2023

 

St Louis New Home Building Permits For The Past 12-Months Decline in all Counties Except Warren

There were 3,946 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended August 31, 2023.  This represents a decline of 12.04% from the prior 12-month period, during which 4,486 permits were issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).  Six of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decline in building permits from the previous period with 4 of them seeing double digit declines.  Warren County, on the other hand, saw a slight increase in permit activity.


  

St Louis New Home Building Permits – August 2023

(click on table below for page with live charts showing additional permit data)St Louis New Home Building Permits - August 2023

 

St Louis New Home Building Permits For The Past 12-Months Decline in all Counties Again

There were 3,950 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended July 31, 2023.  This represents a decrease of 13.38% from the prior 12-month period, during which 4,560 permits were issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).   All seven of the counties covered in the report saw a decline in building permits from the previous period.

St Louis New Home Building Permits – July 2023

(click on table below for page with live charts showing additional permit data)St Louis New Home Building Permits - July 2023

 

St Louis New Home Building Permits For The Past 12-Months Decline in all Counties Except Franklin

There were 4,017 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended June 30, 2023.  This represents a decrease of 11.05% from the prior 12-month period, during which 4,516 permits were issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).   Six of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decline in building permits from the previous period, with the City of St Louis and Lincoln County experiencing double-digit declines. 

St Louis New Home Building Permits – June 2023

(click on table below for page with live charts showing additional permit data)St Louis New Home Building Permits - June 2023

 

St Louis New Home Building Permits For The Past 12-Months Declined in all Counties-by double digits in 6

There were 3,820 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended May 31, 2023.  This represents a decrease of 17.28% from the prior 12-month period, during which 4,618 permits were issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).   All seven counties covered in the report saw a decline in building permits from the previous period, with all but one of them experiencing double-digit declines. 

St Louis New Home Building Permits – May 2023

(click on table below for page with live charts showing additional permit data)St Louis New Home Building Permits - May 2023

 

St Louis New Home Building Permits For The Past 12-Months Declined in all Counties

There were 3,882 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended April 30, 2023.  This represents a decrease of 16.34% from the prior 12-month period, during which 4,640 permits were issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).   All seven counties covered in the report saw a decline in building permits from the previous period, with all but one of them experiencing double-digit declines.  Also worth noting is this month marked the end to Franklin County’s streak of increased building permits over the prior period which lasted  20 months.

St Louis New Home Building Permits – April 2023

(click on table below for page with live charts showing additional permit data)

 

St Louis New Home Building Permits For The Past 12-Months Declined in 6 of Seven Counties

There were 3,920 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended March 31, 2023.  This represents a decrease of 16.58% from the prior 12-month period, during which 4,699 permits were issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).   Six of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decline in building permits from the previous period, with five of them experiencing double-digit declines.  In contrast, Franklin County saw an increase of over 4%, marking the 20th consecutive month of increases.

St Louis New Home Building Permits – March 2023

(click on table below for page with live charts showing additional permit data)St Louis New Home Building Permits - March 2023

 

St Louis New Home Building Permits in February Fall By Double-Digits From A Year Ago In Four of Seven Counties

There were 4,170 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended February 28, 2023, a decrease of 10.69% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,669 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).   Six of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decline in building permits from the same period a year ago with four of them experiencing double-digit declines.  Franklin County, on the other hand, saw an increase of nearly 19%.

St Louis New Home Building Permits – February 2023

(click on table below for page with live charts showing additional permit data)St Louis New Home Building Permits - February 2023

 

New Home Building Permits in January Fall By Double-Digits From A Year Ago In 4 of 7 St Louis Counties

There were 4,147 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended January 31, 2023, a decrease of 13.48% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,793 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).   Six of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decline in building permits from the same period a year ago with four of them experiencing double-digit declines. 

St Louis New Home Building Permits – January 2023

(click on table below for page with live charts showing additional permit data)St Louis New Home Building Permits - January 2023

 

St Louis Area New Home Building Permits for 2022 at lowest level in seven years

There were 4,361 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during 2022, a decline of 9.62% from 2021 when there were 4,825 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).  As the table below shows, 4 of the 7 counties included in the report had a decline in the number of permits issued in 2022 from the year  before, with there of them double-digit declines.  Lincoln County saw the biggest drop percentage-wise with a decline of 38.27% followed by St Charles County at 21.8%.  All of the increases seen in the 3 remaining counties were single-digit increases with Franklin County the highest with an 8.36% increase.

As the chart below the table illustrates, 2022 saw the lowest number of building permits for new homes issued since 2015 when were there 4,200 issued.

Continue reading “St Louis Area New Home Building Permits for 2022 at lowest level in seven years

New Home Building Permits in St Louis area Decline overall but up in more counties than down

There were 4,515 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended November 30, 2022, a decrease of 6.93% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,851 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).   Four of the seven counties covered in the report saw an increase in building permits from the same period a year ago with the largest increase (9.15%) coming in St Louis County.  

St Louis New Home Building Permits – November 2022

(click on table below for page with live charts showing additional permit data)

St Louis New Home Building Permits - November 2022

 

New Home Construction In Midwest During Increased During Past 12 Months

Even though the number of new home building permits in the St Louis area has been on the decline, they’re been on the increase in the midwest region of which St Louis is a part. As the chart below illustrates, for the 12-month period ended last month, there are been 2,850 building permits issued for new privately-owned housing units in the midwest region of the U.S. an increase of 3.6% from he prior 12-month period when there were 2,746 permits issued. For just the month of November 2022, there were 197 permits, down nearly 8% from November 2021 when 214 permits were issued.

New home construction starts on the rise as well…

Depicted also on the chart below is the number of new homes where construction has actually begun, referred to as “starts”.  The number of starts always tends to be lower than the number of permits issued as there are many issues that could arise that would cause a home not to be built even though a permit was issued for it.  One of those issues could be the developer or builder’s sentiment about the market which, if trending unfavorably, may cause the developer to postpone adding to inventory.  However, even though we saw builder sentiment decline every month this year, the number of new home starts in the midwest region for the most recent 12-month period increased 5% from the prior 12-month period.  There were 2,657 new home starts in the 12-month period ended last month compared with 2,523 starts during the prior 12-month period.  For just November 2022, there were 215 starts, down just one from November 2021 when there were 216 starts.

Continue reading “New Home Construction In Midwest During Increased During Past 12 Months

New Home Building Permits in St Louis area Decline 7 Percent but increase 15 Percent in Franklin County

There were 4,499 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended October 31, 2022, a decrease of 7.01% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,838 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).   Five of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago with three of the counties have a double digit decline.  Franklin County came out the big winner with nearly a 15% increase in building permits issued during the past 12-months.

St Louis New Home Building Permits – October 2022

St Louis New Home Building Permits - October 2022

 

New Home Building Permits In St Louis For Most Recent 12-Months Decline Nearly 9 Percent

There were 4,499 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended September 30, 2022, a decrease of 8.89% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,938 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).   Five of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago with three of the counties have a double digit decline.

St Louis New Home Building Permits -September 2022

New Home Building Permits In St Louis For Most Recent 12-Months Decline Over 8 PercentSt Louis New Home Building Permits -September 2022

 

Fannie Mae Predicts Lower Home Sales and Home Prices Next Year

Yesterday, Fannie Mae released their October housing forecast in which they forecast, among other things, where home sales and prices are headed.  The report incudes a forecast for next year, which included:

  • Home prices in 2023 to decline 1.5% from 2022
  • Home sales to finish 2022 down nearly 18% from last year and drop another 22% in 2023
  • New home construction to end 2022 down 3.6% from last year and drop another 25% in 2023.
  • Mortgage Interest Rates will continue to rise the rest of these year, ending the year at 6.7% and then will ease back to 6.4% in 2023.

See Fannie Maes Complete Housing Forecast HERE

St Louis New Home Activity Continues To Decline

There were 4,486* building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended August 31, 2022, a decrease of 8.93% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,926 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).   Six of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago with four of the counties haveing a double digit decline.  

*The city of St Louis did not report building permit data for August 2022.  Last year there were 54 permits issued in August, if we assume the same number for this year, the City of St Louis would of had an increase of 5.6% for the period, and the overall drop in building permits for the St Louis area would have been 7.8% rather than the 8.93% shown…

St Louis New Home Building Permits -Aug  2022

St Louis New Home Building Permits -Aug  2022

 

New Home Building Permits In St Louis For Most Recent 12-Months Decline Over 8 Percent

There were 4,600 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended July 31, 2022, a decrease of 8.06% from the same period a year ago when there were 5,003 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).   Five of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago with three of the counties have a double digit decline.

St Louis New Home Building Permits -July  2022

St Louis New Home Building Permits -July  2022

 

Number Of New Homes Built In St Louis In Last 14 Years Less Than Half The Number For the Prior 14 Years

During the 14 year period prior to the housing bubble bursting in 2008, there were 92,065 building permits issued for new single family homes in the 3 most active home building counties in St Louis.  As the table shows below, over half the permits issued during that period were in St Charles County alone, with the other half in the counties of St Louis and Jefferson.

Needless to say, when the housing bubble burst in 2008 and the market collapsed, new home construction came to a screeching halt.  However, after about 5 years, the market quickly regained lost ground and for the past several years it seems home builders couldn’t build homes fast enough.  We’ve had a low inventory of homes for sale for so long it’s starting to seem normal.  But still, over 14 years have passed since the bubble burst and we are still way behind on new home construction.  In the 14-year period after the bubble burst, there have been 40.528 building permits issued for new single family homes in the St Louis area counties mentioned above, a decline of nearly 56% from the prior 14-year period.

St Louis New Home Building Permits -1994 through 2007 and 2008 through 2021

St Louis New Home Building Permits -1994 through 2007 and 2008 through 2021

 

New Home Building Permits In St Louis For Most Recent 12-Months Decline Over 12 Percent

There were 4,516 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended June 30, 2022, a decrease of 12.05% from the same period a year ago when there were 5,135 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).   Five of the seven counties covered in the report saw a decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago with three of the counties have a double digit decline.

St Louis New Home Building Permits -June  2022

St Louis New Home Building Permits -June  2022

 

New Home Building Permits In St Louis For Most Recent 12-Months Decline Nearly 10 Percent

There were 5,138 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended April 30, 2022, a decrease of 9.69% from the same period a year ago when there were 5,138 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).   Four of the seven counties covered in the report saw a double-digit decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago.

St Louis New Home Building Permits -April  2022

St Louis New Home Building Permits -April  2022

 

New Home Building Permits In St Louis For Most Recent 12-Months Continue Downward Trend

There were 4,699 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended March 31, 2022, a decrease of 6.86% from the same period a year ago when there were 5,045 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).   Four of the seven counties covered in the report saw a double-digit decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago.

St Louis New Home Building Permits -March  2022

St Louis New Home Building Permits -March  2022

 

How Much Will St Louis Home Prices Be Impacted By Inflation?

Yesterday, I wrote an article addressing the high rate of inflation just reported and its impact on the St Louis housing market. In it, I promised to take a deeper look into the effect of the current events related to the economy on St Louis home prices which I will do in this article.

Before I go further, I should mention I’m not an economist nor a fortune teller.  I am, however, a real estate broker and data nerd that has spent over 40 years in the St Louis real estate industry.  I try my best to use my knowledge and experience to anticipate changes in the market and use this to help our agents and clients use this information to their advantage.

History always repeats itself..

I find the above old adage to be pretty accurate when it comes to the real estate market.  Therefore, in trying to get my head around what impact a high inflation rate may have on home prices, I started by going back to prior periods of high inflation rates.

The first chart below shows the rate of inflation, interest rates, and the St Louis home price index.  I’ve made some notes on it to show prior inflationary periods and the effect on home prices. The first period, the early 80s was much worse than today as inflation was higher and interest rates were in the stratosphere hitting 18%.  The more recent period around 2007-2009 was not as severe and therefore the impact on home prices was not as dramatic as the former either.  As you can see on the far right side of the chart, home prices have increased in the past several months at a sharp rate with the change from a year ago being greater than the last inflationary period but not as great as the one from the early ’80s.

The next chart shows the relationship between home prices and rent.  When home prices outpace rent, home prices decline, when rent outpaces home prices, prices rise.  As the chart shows, these two lines have converged indicating a reasonable balance between home prices and rent.

During the period of 2007 – 2011 home prices fell over 17% during a four year period before finally bottoming out.

Today is different though…

Continue reading “How Much Will St Louis Home Prices Be Impacted By Inflation?

New Home Building Permits Decline Nearly 6 Percent In St Louis In Past 12-Months

There were 4,669 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended February 28, 2022, a decrease of 5.8% from the same period a year ago when there were 4,956 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).   Four of the seven counties covered in the report saw a double-digit decrease in building permits from the same period a year ago.

St Louis New Home Building Permits -February  2022

St Louis New Home Building Permits -February  2022