St Louis home prices increase from last year while U.S. home prices fall

dennis-norman-home-prices-realtorSt. Louis home prices are significantly outperforming other metro markets as evidenced by today’s release of the the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for May 2012 which showed both the 10-city and 20-city composites, increased by 2.2 percent from the month before while St Louis home prices (see chart below) increased 9.6 percent from the month before.   On a year-over-year basis, both the 10-city and 20-city composites saw declines, 1.0 percent and 0.7 percent respectively while St. Louis home prices in May increased 3.4 percent from the year before. Continue reading “St Louis home prices increase from last year while U.S. home prices fall

Case-Shiller report says 2012 home prices off to rocky start

dennis-norman-home-prices-realtorThis morning, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for January was released which showed both the 10-city and 20-city composites, after both hitting record low levels in December, fell further in January. The 10-city and 20-city composites saw annual price decline of 3.9 percent and 3.8 percent respectively and both saw price declines of 0.8 percent in January from December.

Continue reading “Case-Shiller report says 2012 home prices off to rocky start

Case-Shiller Home Price Index Falls to New Low in December; Maybe sign of new period of decline

dennis-norman-home-prices-realtorThis morning, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for December was released showing all three of the home price composites ended the year at new index lows. The national composite fell by 3.8 percent during the fourth quarter of 2011 and was down 4.0 percent from the year before. Both the 10-city and 20-city composites fell by 1.1 percent in December from the month before and the home price indexes were down 3.9 percent and 4.0 percent respectively from the year before. All three composites are at their lowest levels sine the housing crisis began in mid-2006.

Continue reading “Case-Shiller Home Price Index Falls to New Low in December; Maybe sign of new period of decline

Home Prices Fall In October;   back to mid-2003 levels

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

This morning, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for October was released showing US home prices decreased from the month before as well as the year before. The 10-city and 20-city composites fell by 1.1 percent and 1.2 percent respectively and the home price indexes were down 3.0 percent and 3.4 percent respectively from the year before.

Continue reading “Home Prices Fall In October;   back to mid-2003 levels

St. Louis Home Prices Fall in August in Contrast to U.S. Home Prices That Increased

Dennis Norman, St Louis REALTOR - St Louis Home PricesSt. Louis home prices decreased 4.3 percent in August from the month before and were down less than one percent from a year ago. The median home price in August 2011 in the five-county core of the St. Louis market (St Louis City & County, St. Charles, Jefferson & Franklin Counties) was $134,000. This put’s St. Louis home price performance below the Case-Shiller home prices announced this morning for the 20 largest metro’s in the U.S. (St. Louis is not included) which showed a 0.2 percent increase from the month before but ahead of the 3.8 percent decrease in U.S. home prices from a year ago. Continue reading “St. Louis Home Prices Fall in August in Contrast to U.S. Home Prices That Increased

St Louis home prices performing better than national home price index

Dennis Norman, St Louis REALTOR - St Louis Home PricesSt. Louis home prices increased 4.6 percent in July from the month before but were down 3.6 percent from a year ago.  The median home price in July 2011 in the five-county core of the St. Louis market (St  Louis City & County, St. Charles, Jefferson & Franklin Counties) was $140,000.  This put’s St. Louis home price performance above the Case-Shiller home prices announced this morning for the 20 largest metro’s in the U.S. (St. Louis is not included) which showed a 0.9 percent increase from the month before and a 4.1 percent decrease from a year ago. Continue reading “St Louis home prices performing better than national home price index

Case-Shiller report shows U.S. home prices increased slightly in June

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

This morning, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for June was released showing US home prices increased for the third consecutive month however, average home prices in the U.S. are still about the same as they were over 8 years ago in early 2003. The report shows their 20-city composite home price index increased by 1.1 percent from the month before and declined by 4.5 percent from a year ago. and the 10-city composite home price index increased by 1.1 percent from the month before and was down 3.8 percent from the year before. Continue reading “Case-Shiller report shows U.S. home prices increased slightly in June

Current Housing Market Bust Worse Than Depression? I Don’t Think So..

The headline today on a CNBC article was “US Housing Crisis is Now Worse than Great Depression” and there are many similar articles in other publications as well…in fact, if you Google “Housing Crisis Worse Than Great Depression” there are over 100 exact matches just in the past month. The writer’s all seem to be hanging onto one stat that came out of the Case-Shiller home price index reports, that being that the “peak to trough” decline in home prices during this housing recession has hit 33 percent, which exceeds the 31 percent decline during the Great Depression. But wait, there’s a LOT MORE to look at… Continue reading “Current Housing Market Bust Worse Than Depression? I Don’t Think So..

I told you so!

Dennis Norman

Bear with me, I’m really not an ego-maniac, it’s just so infrequently that anyone of any real authority, or with “PhD” behind their name, agrees with me, so when it does happen I have to sound the horns and bask in the glory while it lasts!

If you have read any of my articles on any blogs about home sales and new home starts you are well aware of my usual rant about, and distrust of, “seasonally-adjusted” numbers. Up until today I really just thought this was my simple-minded way of looking at things and, even though I think it makes sense, was not surprised that economists were not following my lead.

Well, today Standard & Poor’s, the world’s leading index provider and publisher of the closely followed S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, announced they agree with me! Well, they didn’t actually mention me in their statement, however the statement they issued is consistent with my rants:

After reviewing the data, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Committee believes that for the present time, the unadjusted series is a more reliable indicator of U.S. housing trends than the seasonally adjusted series. Therefore, the Committee suggests that reports should focus on the year-over-year changes in U.S. home prices where seasonal shifts are not a factor, and if monthly changes are considered, that the unadjusted series should be used.”

All right, enough patting myself on the back…I’ll stop. Seriously though, I have to admit that I am impressed that Standard and Poors made such a radical change in it’s philosphy and is willing to step out and approach the market differently than they have in the past. It seems most of the publishers of indices, economists, and the like just stick with the same old approach that has been used for the past couple of decades without ever stopping to see if their approach is still relevant.
Hat’s off to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Committee!

US Home Prices show modest 0.3 percent increase from June to July according to Federal Housing Finance Agency

Dennis Norman
Dennis Norman

By: Dennis Norman

Today the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported that U.S. home prices rose 0.3 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis from June to July and are down 4.2 percent for the past year.  Missouri is included by the FHFA in the West North Central division which was right on target with the US with an increase of 0.3 percent from June to July.  Our region was only down 1.5 percent from last year according the report.

Many of the reports I’ve seen in the press on this are saying this is a sign of the housing market recovering:

The Wall Street Journal, on WSJ.Com, Reported “U.S. Home prices climbed in July as some of the country’s worst-hit housing markets showed signs of recovering.”
The AP reported “U.S. home prices rose slightly in July from a month earlier, according to a government index, further evidence the housing market is stabilizing.”
Snaps goes to Bloomberg.com for I feel being more alert by reporting “U.S. Home prices rose 0.3 percent in July from the previous month, less than analysts’ estimates, in a sign that the housing recovery is tenuous. Continue reading “US Home Prices show modest 0.3 percent increase from June to July according to Federal Housing Finance Agency