The St Louis real estate market slowed when the effects of COVID-19 hit the St Louis area in early March but after continuing at a slower pace for a few weeks has quickly shifted gears to a faster pace. The St Louis market has improved to the point that, for the 12-month period ended May 31, 2020, St Louis home sales were down just 1.84% from the prior 12-month period. The median price of homes sold during the past 12-months was $213,000, an increase of 6.55% from the prior period.
St Louis 5-County Core Market Home Sales and Prices
As the St Louis real estate market continues to distance itself from the effects of COVID-19 and the resulting stay at home orders and business shutdowns, I continue to see market activity that is encouraging. For example, as the chart below shows, for the most recent week, reported (through last Thursday) the showing activity on listings in St Louis and surrounding areas were at a level that is 3.9% higher than for the same period last year. This is a huge rebound since showings hit bottom in the middle of the lock-down on April 9th and fell to a level that was barely half of the year before.
As the St Louis area slowly moves toward starting to come back to life, so to speak, the St Louis real estate market continues to heat up! After getting a gut punch from the COVID-19 pandemic, which I now refer to as “The COVID-19 effect”, the St Louis market has been steadily making a come back. As the table below shows, the total number of new sales of residential listings last week for the St Louis MSA as a whole was down just 6% from the same time last year, and down just 10% for the 5-County core St Louis market. In fact, Jefferson County and Franklin County both saw more sales last week than at the same time a year ago!
St Louis Area New Contracts On Residential Listings
I may be jumping the gun just a little, but showing activity on residential listings during the past week is just about back to where it was this time last year when there wasn’t a COVID-19 pandemic! As the chart below illustrates, the weekly average for showings through May 8th is just down a little over 2% from the same time last year and is up 40% from the first week of January this year.
Showing Activity For St Louis and Surrounding Market Areas
(click on the chart for a live, interactive chart)
Through the end of April, there have been 7,146 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core Market, nearly exactly the same as last year when there were 7,153 homes sold. In spite of the challenges caused by Covid-19, including the stay at home orders, over the past 7 weeks, the residential real estate market has managed to fare ok.
The trend is not looking so good though…
One thing to keep in mind is the date I just referenced is somewhat a historical look at the market since we are talking about closings of sales and not new sales. For example, many of the closings that took place in April were likely sales that took place prior to when the “COVID-19 effect” started in St Louis, which was around March 10th.
The darker green line on the chart below reflects the home sales trend for the St Louis market, with each data point reflecting the prior 12-months home sales. You will notice the trend line takes a significant drop in April. If you look at last year, the trend line took a dip in April as well but had declined the month before also. As I’ve reported over the past few weeks, new sales, while they have made a significant recovery, have been down as much as 35% or so from last year, so we’re likely to see the trend remain downward at least in the short term.
St Louis 5-County Core Market YTD Home Sales and Home Sales Trend For Past 25-Months
Showings of real estate listings in St Louis fell dramatically after the COVID-19 outbreak and hit levels that were about half of what they were the same time last year during the first half of April. Since hitting the low point on April 12th, showings have, as the chart below shows, increased sharply to the point where they are only down 15% from the same time last year. Given that home buyers are much more open to virtual showings and hesitant to look at a home in person without thoroughly vetting it online, resulting in fewer showings per sale, this decline is really not bad at all.
St Louis metro area along with other markets served by MARIS
Yesterday, I wrote about how St Louis home sales were on the rebound based upon the latest contract data which showed the number of new contracts on listings in the St Louis MSA had declined by just 16% from the same time a year ago. The question is, will that trend continue? Well, a very good, and reliable, leading-indicator of home sales is home showings, and, as the chart below shows, showings of listings in the St Louis MSA has been on the rise over the past two weeks. As of yesterday, showings were down just 17.7% from the same time last year for the St Louis MSA. This would suggest that, absent something happening to disrupt it, the home sales trend I reported yesterday may continue.
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Showings Of Listings in the St Louis metro area
(click on chart for current, live-interactive chart)
Maybe it’s the gorgeous weather, a more optimistic outlook after receiving stimulus payments or perhaps just being tired of waiting in limbo, but homebuyers have come out strong in St Louis during the past week! St Louis home sales are still not at the levels we would expect at this time of year but, as my table below shows, for the St Louis MSA as a whole, the most recent 7-day period is down just 16% from the same time last year. This is about half the decline I’ve seen when pulling the data as recently as a week ago.
St Charles County home sales have come back the strongest with 185 homes sold during the 7-day period from 4/14 through 4/21, just 12% less than the same period last year and the city of St Louis is next with a decline of just 14%. Franklin County is struggling the most with just about half as many home sales as last year.
As I wrote yesterday, with low-interest rates and the buying opportunities out there, now is a great time to buy for those that are able. Wow, now that I think about it, maybe that’s the reason home sales are increasing, people are listening to me LOL.
St Louis New Residential Home Sales April 14 – 21 – (Table)
Date Source: MARIS – Copyright 2020 St Louis Real Estate News, all rights reserved
Showings of listings for sale in the St Louis metro area started to decline on March 10th after COVID-19 hit our area and stay at home orders followed. As the chart below shows, the number of showings, compared to the same period last year, continued to fall until hitting the bottom on April 12th.
By the time showings hit rock bottom, they had declined to a level equal to about 25% fewer showings than during the first week of January this year and nearly 50% fewer showings than the same time last year. However, since hitting bottom on the 12th, showings have increased 42% to the current point which is 7% higher than the first week of January and down just about 19% from the same time last year.
Showings in St Louis metro area along with other markets served by MARIS
The COVID-19 pandemic (coronavirus) began impacting the St Louis area just a little over a month ago and I’ve been tracking the impact on the St Louis real estate market along the way. From the outset, we have seen a decline in the number of new listings, new sales and physical showings of listings, however, overall the decline has remained fairly constant. New sales of listings for the St Louis area has pretty well hovered around a level equal to about tw0-thirds of the activity we saw at the same time last year.
Now that we are about a month into the “COVID-19 effect”, a few weeks into the stay at home orders and a few weeks into real estate agents adjusting to doing business in a different way, I wanted to take an in-depth look to see where we stand now. I’ll warn you in advance, this article is a little long, mainly because of tables and data, but I wanted to include as much data as I could to paint the complete picture of the market.
Home sales are the best indicator of market confidence….
I’ve written several articles over the past couple of weeks about the impact the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is having on the St Louis real estate market. Hopefully, it has been of some benefit to people that either already had their homes on the market, were in the market to buy or considering buying or selling. Yesterday, I took all of the most recent information and updates that I think people in those situations will find useful and packed it all into a short, 4-minute, video special report on the impact of COVID-19 on the St Louis Real Estate Market.
You can watch the report below or by clicking here.
While we deal with the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic practicing social-distancing, shutting down events, public gatherings and the like, we are still trying to go on with our lives at the same time. A big challenge to this is the unknown; not knowing how bad things will get, how long we may have to live like this, etc. Fortunately, for those of us in Missouri, at the time I’m writing this, we have just 41 confirmed cases putting Missouri at number 40 of the 50states in terms of the number of cases. Granted, once more people are tested, our position may raise, but hopefully, due to the swift action by our leaders and citizens here, it will not rise anywhere close to the levels we are seeing in some states, including our neighbor to the east, Illinois where there are 423 cases as of this morning.
What effect is the coronavirus having on St Louis real estate?
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