By Dennis Norman, on March 24th, 2023 The State of Missouri received $138 million from the U.S. Treasury’s Homeowners Assistance Fund (HAF) and are using those funds to help qualified homeowners that are struggling to make their house payments. Missouri State Assistance for Housing Relief (SAFHR) is responsible for paying out these funds to help individual homeowners.
Who is eligible for assistance from SAFHR?
According to the SAFHR program guidelines, to qualify for SAFHR for Homeowners assistance, an individual or household must:
- Earn no more than 150% of the area median income for the region where the property is located, as set forth in the HUD income guidelines for the St Louis metro area.
- Have suffered a COVID-19 pandemic-related hardship that began on or after January 21, 2020, such as a loss of income or increase in household expenses related to the pandemic.
- Require assistance with mortgage arrearage.
There are also 5 questions that, can answer “yes” to all of them, you are encouraged to submit an application to receive Missouri State Assistance for Housing Relief (SAFHR) funds:
- Has your household experienced a financial hardship related to the COVID-19 pandemic since January 21, 2020?
- Are you a current resident of Missouri?
- Is the property you are seeking assistance for located in Missouri?
- Do you live on the property (primary residence) for which assistance is being requested?
- Do you have a mortgage on your home?
How do I apply for Missouri State Assistance for Housing Relief (SAFHR)?
Well, if you appear to be eligible for assistance, the next step would to to register on the SAFHR site and complete an application. To access the registration form on the SAFHR site click here.
Mortgage Assistance Counseling is available as well.
As part of the SAFHR program, the Missouri Housing Development Commission (MHDC) has partnered with Mortgage Assistance Counseling agencies across the state of Missouri. These agencies can help you complete your application for the SAFHR for Homeowners Program as well as help connect you with other services to avoid foreclosure. To access the list of Mortgage Assistance Counseling agencies in Missouri, including the Missouri counties they serve click here.
By Dennis Norman, on December 21st, 2022 Even though the number of new home building permits in the St Louis area has been on the decline, they’re been on the increase in the midwest region of which St Louis is a part. As the chart below illustrates, for the 12-month period ended last month, there are been 2,850 building permits issued for new privately-owned housing units in the midwest region of the U.S. an increase of 3.6% from he prior 12-month period when there were 2,746 permits issued. For just the month of November 2022, there were 197 permits, down nearly 8% from November 2021 when 214 permits were issued.
New home construction starts on the rise as well…
Depicted also on the chart below is the number of new homes where construction has actually begun, referred to as “starts”. The number of starts always tends to be lower than the number of permits issued as there are many issues that could arise that would cause a home not to be built even though a permit was issued for it. One of those issues could be the developer or builder’s sentiment about the market which, if trending unfavorably, may cause the developer to postpone adding to inventory. However, even though we saw builder sentiment decline every month this year, the number of new home starts in the midwest region for the most recent 12-month period increased 5% from the prior 12-month period. There were 2,657 new home starts in the 12-month period ended last month compared with 2,523 starts during the prior 12-month period. For just November 2022, there were 215 starts, down just one from November 2021 when there were 216 starts.
Continue reading “New Home Construction In Midwest During Increased During Past 12 Months“
By Dennis Norman, on December 19th, 2022 The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) report for December 2022 and, not surprisingly, it shows the builders are continuing to lose confidence in the market. In fact, builder sentiment has dropped every month during 2022, ending the year at an index value of 31, the lowest seen since the onslaught of COVID-19 in April 2020.
NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) / Builder Sentiment Chart
(click on chart for live, interactive chart)
By Dennis Norman, on September 26th, 2022 It’s no secret that the real estate market slows down in the winter and typically nearly screeches to a halt from shortly before Christmas to shortly after New Years. Therefore, when tracking showing activity in the St Louis area, the first week of January of each year is used as the base, or “0” value and then each rolling 7-day period afterward is compared to that first week.
As the chart below shows, in 2020 and 2021 all weekly averages of showing activity were above the baseline of January until getting close to Thanksgiving, with the one exception being late March and Early April of 2020 which was a result of the COVID-19 pandemic beginning. The orange line depicts this year and it shows showing activity all year has been below the levels of the prior two years for the most part, even dropping below January levels five times so far this year and has spent the bulk of September below the January levels. For the most recent 7 day period, ended September 25th, there were over 4% fewer showings in the St Louis area than during the first week of January this year.
Listing Showing Activity For the St Louis Metro Area (along with other markets served by MARIS)
(click on chart for live, interactive chart)
By Dennis Norman, on July 15th, 2022 If you’re heard it once, you’ve likely heard it a hundred times, “all real estate is local”. This is why you can’t put too much faith in national news or data if you are interested in buying or selling a home in St Louis. This is also why at MORE, REALTORS®, we put so much time, effort and money into producing the best and most accurate local data we can. We think it’s important to bring the data and information down to the local level.
“Homebuyers are canceling deals at highest rate since start of COVID” was the headline earlier this week on Inman News, an online real estate industry publication read by many brokers and agents. My usual response to news like this is “I wonder if that’s true in St Louis?” and I set out to pull the data to see.
There is not really a way to count “canceled” deals…
While I don’t know exactly what the writer of the Inman article was referencing in terms of “canceled” deals. However, in a typical contract to purchase a home in St Louis only gives the purchase one way to “cancel” a contract and that is in the building inspection contingency where the purchaser has the right to terminate the contract for no reason. When that happens it is not reported to the REALTOR® Multiple Listing Service (MLS) as a “canceled” listing however, it is simply put back on the market. There are certainly other reasons contracts fail and listings come back on the market such as the buyer’s inability to get financing, appraisal issues, etc.
“Back on the market” is something we can count…
Continue reading “National Headlines Say Homebuyers Canceling Deals At Highest Rate Since Start of Covid…Is this true in St Louis?“
By Dennis Norman, on July 7th, 2022 Ever heard the expression “It’s not if, but when..”? That is something that I’ve heard for a while now about a recession. With everything that has happened to our economy including rising interest rates, rising inflation, the government printing more and more currency and running up greater debt, it seemed inevitable we would see a recession. To officially be in a recession, the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) has to fall for two successive quarters. For the first quarter of this year, GDP declined at an annual rate of 1.6%. The second quarter GDP numbers won’t be released until later this month (July 28th) however, the GDPNow forecasting model of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is forecasting a decline of 2.1% in GDP for the 2nd quarter of this year at this point. If their forecast is correct, we will officially be in a recession.
What happens to St Louis home prices during a recession?
There are many factors at play in every recession that make them unique, such as unemployment rates, interest rates, etc, making it unrealistic to think that home prices are going to behave the same way during every recession, however, I thought it would be worth looking at what happened during the last couple of recessions.
2020 Recession (Q1 and Q2)
We had a short recession in early 2020 caused primarily by COVID that only lasted the minimum period of two quarters. During this period, as the chart below shows, St Louis home prices continued to increase at a fairly consistent rate. In 2019 the median price of a home in the St Louis MSA was $188,575 and in 2020 it was $208,000, an increase of 10.3%. Then in 2021, the year after the recession, the median St Louis home prices was $227,000, an increase of 9.1% from the year before.
Continue reading “The Coming Recession and Its Potential Affect on St Louis Home Prices“
By Dennis Norman, on July 6th, 2022 It’s no secret that the real estate market slows down in the winter and typically nearly screeches to a halt from shortly before Christmas to shortly after New Years. Therefore, when tracking showing activity in the St Louis area, the first week of January of each year is used as the base, or “0” value and then each rolling 7-day period afterward is compared to that first week.
As the chart below shows, in 2020 and 2021 all weekly averages of showing activity were above the baseline of January until getting close to Thanksgiving, with the one exception being late March and Early April of 2020 which was a result of the COVID-19 pandemic beginning. The orange line depicts this year and it shows showing activity all year has been below the levels of the prior two years for the most part, however, the gap has widened in the past couple of weeks. On July 4th, for the prior 7-day period the number of showings was less than the first week of January and it dipped further on July 5th to 6.9% fewer showings during that 7-day period than the first week of January. Granted, it is always going to dip around a holiday but last year for the period ended July 5th there were 9.1% more showings than the first week of January, for a difference of 16% from this year.
Rising interest rates and increased inflation are no doubt two of the big reasons for this along with a low inventory of homes for sale.
Continue reading “Showings Of St Louis Listings Fall To Levels Below January“
By Dennis Norman, on May 5th, 2021 UPDATE: After the decision by to overturn the eviction moratorium was decided upon by Judge Dabney L. Friedrich on May 5th, at 6:54pm that evening the U.S. Government filed a notice of appeal as well as a motion for an emergency stay to not have the eviction moratorium lifted until after the appeal. Judge Dabney L. Friedrich through a Minute Order, granted the stay, thereby leaving the eviction moratorium in place for now but noting that “This Minute Order should not be construed in any way as a ruling on the merits of the defendants’ motion.” The judge allowed the plaintiff’s until May 12th to file opposition to the motion to stay and then the U.S. government 4 days to respond to the plaintiff’s opposition.
So, for now, the eviction moratorium stands…
05/05/2021
MINUTE ORDER. Before the Court is the defendants’ 57 Emergency Motion for a Stay Pending Appeal of this Court’s 53 May 5, 2021 Order vacating the national eviction moratorium at 86 Fed. Reg. 16,731. In this emergency motion, the defendants request an immediate administrative stay to give this Court time to consider and rule upon its motion to stay this case pending appeal. Alternatively, the defendants request that the Court stay its 53 May 5, 2021 Order as to all parties except for the plaintiffs. Defs.’ Emergency Mot. for a Stay Pending Appeal at 1 n.1, 8-9, Dkt. 57. Although the plaintiffs have not yet filed an opposition to the defendants’ motion, which was filed at 6:54 p.m. this evening, the defendants represent that the plaintiffs oppose the motion. Id. at 1 n.1. In order to give the Court time to consider the merits of the defendants’ 57 Emergency Motion for a Stay Pending Appeal, and the plaintiffs time to file an opposition to the motion, the Court will grant the defendants’ request for a temporary administrative stay.
This Minute Order should not be construed in any way as a ruling on the merits of the defendants’ motion. The Court notes, however, that, as the Court has explained, see Mem. Op. at 19, Dkt. 54, the law in this Circuit is clear: where a court concludes that an agency has exceeded its statutory authority, as this Court has done here, see Mem. Op. at 17, vacatur of the rule is the proper remedy in this Circuit. See Nat’l Mining Ass’n v. U.S. Army Corps of Eng’rs, 145 F.3d 1399, 1409 (D.C. Cir. 1998). Based on this clear authority, courts in this Circuit do not restrict vacatur only to those plaintiffs before the Court. See, e.g., O.A. v. Trump, 404 F. Supp. 3d 109, 152-53 (D.D.C. 2019). Indeed, the government has been unable to point to a single case in which a court in this Circuit has done so. See Mot. Hr’g Rough Tr. at 31.
Accordingly, it is ORDERED that the Court’s 53 May 5, 2021 Order is administratively STAYED. It is further ORDERED that the plaintiffs shall file any opposition to the defendants’ motion on or before May 12, 2021, and the defendants shall file any reply within four days of the date the plaintiffs’ opposition is filed. So Ordered by Judge Dabney L. Friedrich on May 5, 2021. (lcdlf1)
(Entered: 05/05/2021)
Today, United States District Judge Dabney L. Friedrich issued an oder setting aside the CDC Ordered nationwide eviction moratorium that, prior to this order, was in effect until June 30, 2021. For the entire opinion from the court, click “>HERE and then scroll down to the first big red button titled “Court Order Lifting Rental Eviction Moratorium May 5, 2021”.
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By Dennis Norman, on April 7th, 2021 The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) earlier this week proposed rule changes that would help prevent “avoidable foreclosures” that will come about when the current foreclosure ban expires June 30th. According to the CFPB, nearly 3 million homeowners are delinquent on their mortgages as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the economic issues that have come about as a result.
The CFPB’s proposed rule changes include:
- Require a pre-foreclosure review period that would generally prohibit loan servicers from starting foreclosure until after December 31, 2021 on loans secured by a borrower’s principal residence.
- Permit loan servicers to offer “certain streamlined loan modification options to borrowers with COVID-19-related hardships.”
The CFPB is going to accept comments on their proposed rules until May 11, 2011 and then afterward will decide how to proceed.
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About the CFPB (from their website)
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is a 21st century agency that helps consumer finance markets work by making rules more effective, by consistently and fairly enforcing those rules, and by empowering consumers to take more control over their economic lives. For more information, visit www.consumerfinance.gov.
By Dennis Norman, on March 4th, 2021 According to a report just released by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), titled “Housing insecurity and the COVID-19 pandemic“, there are over 2 million homeowners that have fallen behind at least three months on their mortgage payments. This represents a 250% increase from pre-Covid-19 levels and is now at a level we haven’t seen since the height of the Great Recession in 2010.
Homeowners with an FHA mortgage delinquency rates double rate for all loans:
As the chart below shows, homeowners with an FHA mortgage hit a serious mortgage delinquency rate of 10.8% during the 3rd quarter of 2020, with the rate for all mortgages was just under half that at 5.2%.
Serious Mortgage Delinquency Rate By Loan Type- Q1 2005 – Q3 2020
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Continue reading “COVID-19 Pandemic Driven Serious Mortgage Delinquencies To Highest Levels Since The Great Recession“
By Dennis Norman, on January 17th, 2021 Most residential real estate data is published based upon closed deals meaning the transaction is already in the past and it’s activity may not be reflective of the current market. This is why at MORE, REALTORS® we developed our leading indicators report that I shared a few days ago and also why we developed a home sale trends chart. The home sales trend chart, such as the one shown below for the St Louis 5-County Core real estate market, is still based upon closed sales however each monthly data point represents the total of the closed sales in the proceeding 12-months making this a very good indicator of the market conditions and where we are in an improving market or a declining one.
As the chart below shows, for the first 12 months or so in the 25-month period reported, the sales trend was pretty steady, making a flat line on the chart. Then, around the end of 2019, the trend started increasing slightly through the spring of 2020 (when the impact of COVID-19 hit the market the hardest) and then fell the next few months. By late summer last year the home sales trend was on the rise and, as you can see, didn’t stop rising through the end of the year.
Will this upward trend continue or will it level off or even decline? Right now it’s hard to say given all the variables that could affect it. We have a changing administration in Washington D.C. which could affect the economy, we have the ongoing pandemic and a few other things that could very well affect the residential real estate market. As I shared in our leading indicators report the other day, the new contract activity is very encouraging so for the short term, I would say the trend will remain around the level it’s at currently.
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12-Month Home Sales Trend – St Louis 5-County Core Market
(click on chart for live chart)
By Dennis Norman, on January 14th, 2021 In spite of the challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic, stay at home orders, a shaky economy and a fair amount of social unrest, 2020 still managed to be a good year for residential real estate! As the STL Market Report shows (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®), in the 5-County Core St Louis market there were 28,131 homes sold during 2020, an increase of 8.27% from 2019 when there were just 25,982 homes sold. The median price of homes sold in 2020 in this St Louis market was $232,000, an increase of 7.93% from 2019 when the median price was $214,950.
The current price trend, as depicted in the report, is up as well with the median price per square foot of homes that are currently on the market being over 9% higher than the median price per foot of homes sold during 2020. There are currently 2,031 active listings on the market representing a 0.81 month supply at the current sales rates.
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STL Market Report for the St Louis 5-County Core Market
(Non-distressed home sales only – click on report for live report)
By Dennis Norman, on January 12th, 2021 As a result of the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, as well as the impact of eviction moratoriums and the like, residential rental income for the apartment sector in the U.S. took a nose dive during the 2nd quarter of 2020. As the chart below shows, the total revenue for businesses from Rental and Leasing, dropped to $156 Billion during the 2nd quarter of last year, a decline of 16% from the quarter before when the total revenue was nearly $186 Billion. During the 3rd quarter however, rental revenue rebounded to nearly $180 Billion.
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Total Revenue For Real Estate and Rental and Leasing, Establishments Subject to Federal Income Tax – 2012 – Present
(click on chart for Live Chart)
Individual landlords appear to be doing better…
As the chart below shows, individual landlords appear to have fared a better than their corporate counterparts. Residential rental revenue for individuals fell over the summer months of last year to a low of $791 Billion in June which was a decline of about 1.6% from March 2020 when the rental revenue was $804 Billion. In November, the rental revenue grew to $818.7 Billion which represents the highest level ever.
Rental Income of Individuals – 2000 – Present
(click on chart for Live Chart)
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By Dennis Norman, on November 29th, 2020 I think just about everyone that is trying to buy or sell a home in St Louis or even thinking about it, is well aware that we have been in a strong real estate market here in St Louis for some time now. The St Louis real estate market has favored sellers for the past several years largely due to a low supply of homes for sale and continuing demand by home buyers. The question I’m often asked though, especially right now with so much going on in our country right now that could impact the economy (COVID-19 and the Presidential election are the two biggies) is “will the strong home sale in St Louis continue?”.
To answer the question, being the Chief Data Nerd at MORE, REALTORS, I naturally turned to the proprietary software we have developed to help our agents answer questions like this for their clients. Based upon the data I’m sharing below, I would say the short answer to the question is that St Louis home sales appear to be poised to continue at a historically strong rate, at least for the near future. Now for the caveats, of which there are two big ones: the first is that this is contingent upon listing inventory as if there is nothing to buy it doesn’t matter how many buyers you have, and the second is absent something dramatic happening to the economy to really rock the boat. For the former question, I’ll address that in the next day or so with an article in which I’ll look at the listing inventory trend for St Louis.
Leading Indicators…
Looking at how many sales closed is helpful to see how the market is doing, but it’s much more advantageous and accurate to look at the current activity in the market, the leading indicators if you will, which are new contracts written on listings. Our exclusive Leading Indicators reports below show that all 5 counties in the St Louis Core market saw an increase in the number of new contracts written in the past week from the same week a year ago, in fact, overall a 21% increase. The second report below shows the same data versus the prior week and it shows an overall decrease of 10% in the number of new contracts from the week before with 3 of the five counties showing a decrease, but given that we are headed toward winter and the holidays this is normal. Finally, the chart at the bottom, another exclusive feature of MORE, REALTORS, which illustrates the prior 12-month home sales for each month in the past 5 years, clearly indicates an upward trend. For the 12-month period ending November 30 (which isn’t even over yet), there have been 28,153 homes sold, an increase of nearly 5% from a year ago.
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Continue reading “St Louis Home Sales – No end in sight?“
By Dennis Norman, on September 2nd, 2020 Yesterday, the Centers For Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced the issuance of an order temporarily halting all residential evictions in the United States through December 31, 2020. The CDC indicated this action was being taken “to prevent further spread of COVID-19”.
Details of the order….
Under the order, a landlord or other owner of residential property, “shall not evict any covered person from any residential property in any jurisdiction to which this Order applies during the effective period of the Order.” So, it’s pretty simple, if you own a residential property in the U.S. that has a tenant in it, this order applies to you. The only exception is the American Samoa, which, at the time of the order, had not cases of COVID-19 reported.
Tenants are still obligated for rental payments…
The order makes it clear that it does not remove the tenant’s obligations to pay rent, nor the landlord’s ability to charge late fees, penalties, etc. Specifically, the order states: “This order does not relieve any individual of any obligation to pay rent, make a housing payment, or comply with any other obligation that the individual may have under a tenancy, lease, or similar contract. Nothing in this Order precludes the charging or collecting of fees, penalties, or interest as a result of the failure to pay rent or other housing payment on a timely basis, under the terms of any applicable contract.”
Tenants must submit a declaration form to take advantage of this protection…
According to the order, for a tenant to receive the protection under this order, an executed copy of a Declaration form must be submitted to their landlord, owner, or property manager.
See the entire order here.
Download the Declaration Form for tenants here.
By Dennis Norman, on August 21st, 2020 Given the impact of COVID-19 on the St Louis real estate market, particularly during the late winter/early spring months as well as a low-inventory market already, it should not come as a surprise that St Louis area home sales have trended downward somewhat during the past 12-months. As our STL Market Report below shows, for the 5-county core St Louis real estate market, there were 26,723 homes sold during the 12-month period ended July 31, 2020, a decline of 0.88% from the prior 12-month period when there were 26,960 homes sold. That very modest decline I think is actually very encouraging given what the market has been through with COVID-19.
St Louis 5-County Core Market Home Sales
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St Charles County and Jefferson County are the exceptions…
While the overall 5-county market was down, individually, the counties of St Charles and Jefferson have both fared better and, in fact, had modest increases in home sales during this period. As the tables below show, there were 5,878 homes sold in St Charles county during the past 12-months, an increase of 1.08% from the prior 12 months. In Jefferson County, there were 3,406 homes sold during the past 12-months, an increase of 0.53% from the prior 12-months.
St Charles County Home Sales
Jefferson County Home Sales
By Dennis Norman, on August 6th, 2020 During the second quarter of 2020, 9.8% of the homeowners in St Louis with a mortgage, were underwater on their mortgage, meaning they were in a negative-equity position, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Research. As the table below shows, this is the lowest level of St Louis homeowners that are seriously underwater since 2013 when this data was first tracked. In spite of financial difficulties and hardships that people may be suffering as a result of COVID-19, the downward trend of underwater homeowners in St Louis that began during the 3rd quarter of 2019 continues.
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St Louis Underwater (Negative-Equity) Homeowners
(Click on table for live, complete data from 2013-Present)
By Dennis Norman, on July 23rd, 2020 After the COVID-19 pandemic hit St Louis and greatly curbed real estate activity back in March and April, the market was quick to recover and has come back in a pretty robust way. The impact is starting to show more though in home sales in the year-over-year and year to date numbers, however. As our STL Market Report for the St Louis MSA below shows, for the 12-months ended June 30, 2020, there were 36,657 homes sold throughout the St Louis metro area, a decline of just over 1% from a year ago when there were 37,040 homes sold during the same period.
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STL Market Report- St Louis MSA
(click on report for live, current report)
St Louis Home Sales Trending Downward…
Continue reading “Home Sales Data In St Louis Reveals The Impact Of COVID-19“
By Dennis Norman, on July 2nd, 2020 Not only has it become common today for homes to sell as soon as they hit the market but receiving offers from multiple buyers and at prices that equal or even exceed the asking price is common as well. While this is an illustration of Economics 101, the rule and supply and demand, when the demand exceeds the supply (such as in the housing market in many price ranges and areas), prices increase this can also be a reminder of times past when home prices rose quickly for several years, then retreated rather abruptly. The most recent example of this, and arguably the worst during my 40 years in the real estate business, was the housing bubble that burst in 2008 sending home prices into a downward trend that lasted about 3 years.
So, are we headed to another housing bubble?
My focus is primarily on the St Louis housing market so I will focus on that but I will point out what I see with regard home prices, St Louis has a better outlook than at the national level.
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Continue reading “Have Home Prices Increased Too Much Too Fast? Is A Correction Coming?“
By Dennis Norman, on June 19th, 2020 COVID-19 who? While it’s still around, it’s impact on the St Louis real estate market has dissipated to the point that we are seeing activity at levels higher than this time last year. For example, as the report below shows, there were 1,245 new sales of residential listings in the St Louis MSA last week, an increase of 10 percent from the same time a year ago. St Charles County was the county with the second-highest number of sales with 217 for the week which was a 32% increase from a year ago! St Louis County, the county with the most home sales in the St Louis MSA had 435 sales, a slight increase above 432 a year ago.
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New Contracts On Residential Listings – St Louis MSA
For the Week Ended June 13, 2020
Data Source: MARIS – Copyright 2020, MORE, REALTORS All Rights Reserved
By Dennis Norman, on June 9th, 2020 The St Louis real estate market slowed when the effects of COVID-19 hit the St Louis area in early March but after continuing at a slower pace for a few weeks has quickly shifted gears to a faster pace. The St Louis market has improved to the point that, for the 12-month period ended May 31, 2020, St Louis home sales were down just 1.84% from the prior 12-month period. The median price of homes sold during the past 12-months was $213,000, an increase of 6.55% from the prior period.
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St Louis 5-County Core Market Home Sales and Prices
Past 12 Months vs Year Ago
(click on the table below for live report)
By Dennis Norman, on May 30th, 2020 COVID-19 lingers on but the real estate market in St Louis has made a quick recovery from the negative impact it had on the market. The data supports the idea that home buyers are tired of waiting for everything to come back to “normal” (or whatever variation of normal the new normal is) and have been out looking at and buying homes. This is evidenced by the chart below which depicts showings of listings this year and compares each 7-day period with the year before. As you can see, showings this year (the orange line) we down, significantly from last year during the worst of the pandemic, but have rebounded to the point where last week’s showings topped the year before by over 12%!
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St Louis Area Showings Of Listings
(click on chart for live, interactive chart)
By Dennis Norman, on May 26th, 2020 While COVID-19 has not released it’s grip on us, it has eased the grip and certainly, this is true with regard to the St Louis real estate market. As I’ve written about recently, showings of listings have increased to the point they have outpaced the same time as last year and now, the number of new contracts on listings is just about there as well!
As the table below shows, the number of new contracts on residential listings in the last 7 days that have been reported is, for the St Louis MSA, down just 3% from the same time last year and for the St Louis County Core market, down just 6%. Jefferson County has actually seen sales that top the same period last year by 24%.
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St Louis New Contracts On Residential Listings For The Past 7 Days
By Dennis Norman, on May 21st, 2020 It’s no wonder home buyers are tripping over themselves and getting into bidding wars to buy a house as the supply of homes for sale is at or near historic lows. As our table below shows, there are currently 40 zip codes in the St Louis MSA with a one-month or less supply of homes for sale (7 of the zips have no homes for sale) and a total of 76 of the 127 (60%) zip codes within the St Louis MSA have a supply of homes for sale of 2 months or less.
This low inventory, along with low-interest rates and pent-up demand from the COVID-19 induced stay at home orders, is creating a real feeding frenzy of sorts for homebuyers in the St Louis market. For sellers, this is a dream come true, plenty of demand and little competition! Granted, this is not true in all areas and all price ranges, but for the most common prices ranges in the more popular areas it is very true.
Sellers should sell now!
If you are someone that has been thinking about selling, I would act on those thoughts now and take advantage of the current low-inventory conditions. While I don’t know that I agree, there are folks out there predicting that the market is going to get flooded with homes for sale shortly turning the tide on sellers. For me, I’ll believe that when I see it, but nonetheless, now is definitely a great time to sell.
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Continue reading “40 Zip Codes In The St Louis MSA Have 1 Month Or Less Supply Of Homes For Sale“
By Dennis Norman, on May 16th, 2020 As the St Louis real estate market continues to distance itself from the effects of COVID-19 and the resulting stay at home orders and business shutdowns, I continue to see market activity that is encouraging. For example, as the chart below shows, for the most recent week, reported (through last Thursday) the showing activity on listings in St Louis and surrounding areas were at a level that is 3.9% higher than for the same period last year. This is a huge rebound since showings hit bottom in the middle of the lock-down on April 9th and fell to a level that was barely half of the year before.
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St Louis Area Showings Of Listings
(click on chart for live, interactive chart)
By Dennis Norman, on May 14th, 2020 The St Louis real estate market continues to be on the upswing and recovering from the impact of COVID-19. The pandemic did slow the St Louis real estate market down for a while but it appears to be recovering quite quickly. Get all of this and more in this month’s update.
Interest rates, the “cherry on top”. In case the market rebound isn’t enough, mortgage interest rates are at near historic lows making now a great time, and an affordable time, to buy a house if you are in a position to do so.
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By Dennis Norman, on May 13th, 2020 As the St Louis area slowly moves toward starting to come back to life, so to speak, the St Louis real estate market continues to heat up! After getting a gut punch from the COVID-19 pandemic, which I now refer to as “The COVID-19 effect”, the St Louis market has been steadily making a come back. As the table below shows, the total number of new sales of residential listings last week for the St Louis MSA as a whole was down just 6% from the same time last year, and down just 10% for the 5-County core St Louis market. In fact, Jefferson County and Franklin County both saw more sales last week than at the same time a year ago!
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St Louis Area New Contracts On Residential Listings
Data source: MARIS – Copyright© 2020 St Louis Real Estate News, all rights reserved
By Dennis Norman, on May 9th, 2020 I may be jumping the gun just a little, but showing activity on residential listings during the past week is just about back to where it was this time last year when there wasn’t a COVID-19 pandemic! As the chart below illustrates, the weekly average for showings through May 8th is just down a little over 2% from the same time last year and is up 40% from the first week of January this year.
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Showing Activity For St Louis and Surrounding Market Areas
(click on the chart for a live, interactive chart)
By Dennis Norman, on May 8th, 2020 Through the end of April, there have been 7,146 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core Market, nearly exactly the same as last year when there were 7,153 homes sold. In spite of the challenges caused by Covid-19, including the stay at home orders, over the past 7 weeks, the residential real estate market has managed to fare ok.
The trend is not looking so good though…
One thing to keep in mind is the date I just referenced is somewhat a historical look at the market since we are talking about closings of sales and not new sales. For example, many of the closings that took place in April were likely sales that took place prior to when the “COVID-19 effect” started in St Louis, which was around March 10th.
The darker green line on the chart below reflects the home sales trend for the St Louis market, with each data point reflecting the prior 12-months home sales. You will notice the trend line takes a significant drop in April. If you look at last year, the trend line took a dip in April as well but had declined the month before also. As I’ve reported over the past few weeks, new sales, while they have made a significant recovery, have been down as much as 35% or so from last year, so we’re likely to see the trend remain downward at least in the short term.
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St Louis 5-County Core Market YTD Home Sales and Home Sales Trend For Past 25-Months
(Click on chart for live, interactive chart)
By Dennis Norman, on May 3rd, 2020 Prior to COVID-19, there had already been a shortage of residential listings for sale in many areas and price ranges through St Louis going back a couple of years. However, the problem may be getting worse as we are continuing to see new sales of residential listings in St Louis picking up the pace to the point that they are down just 16% from the same time a year ago but, new listings in the St Louis MSA are down 30% from the same time a year ago.
Since we started with a low inventory and now have the sales rate outpacing the listing rate, we are probably going to see an even tighter supply of homes for sale for at least the near future. As our table below shows, there are some areas where this is even more pronounced, such as St Charles County where the number of new sales of residential listings for the most recent 7-day period is down just 3% from a year ago but new listings during the same period are down 37%.
St Charles County down to less than 2-month supply
As our tables at the bottom shows, currently, there is just a 1.97 month supply of homes for sale in St Charles County and, if we look at the “sweet-spot” of homes priced in the $150,000 – $300,000 range, there is an inventory of just 1.04 months. If you own a home in St Charles County and have thought about selling, contact us now and let us show you how to leverage this market in your favor whileit lasts.
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Continue reading “St Louis New Listings Down Nearly Double What Sales Are From Last Year“
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