St Louis home prices up 4.4 percent in past year; St Louis home sales up almost 19 percent during same period

dennis-norman-st-louis-realtor-

The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) announced this morning that U.S. existing home sales increased in October falling 1.7 percent from the month before, a 2.1 percent increase from the month before and an increase of 10.9 percent from a year ago.  The NAR report indicated the median home price in the U.S. in October was $178,300, an increase of 11.1 percent from a year ago.  The St. Louis Real Estate market (the 5-county core St Louis Real Estate area I’m showing which includes the City of St Louis and the Counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin) saw home prices fall slightly (1.1 percent) in October from September to a median price of $120,000 which is an increase of 4.4 percent from a year ago.  St Louis home sales, on the other hand, rose in October 6.6 percent from the month before to 2,607 homes, an increase of 18.9 percent from a year ago. If you would like to receive a free copy of the NAR home sales report please click here for immediate access. Continue reading “St Louis home prices up 4.4 percent in past year; St Louis home sales up almost 19 percent during same period

Home sales lose steam in June

dennis-norman-st-louis-realtor-existing-home-salesYesterday’s existing home sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® shows existing home sales in June were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.37 million units which is a decrease of 5.4 percent from the month before, and a 4.5 percent increase from the year before and is at the lowest level since October 2011. Continue reading “Home sales lose steam in June

Midwest is only region with increased home sales in May

dennis-norman-st-louis-realtor-existing-home-salesYesterday’s existing home sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® shows existing home sales in May were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.55 million units which is a decrease of 1.5 percent from the month before, however, here in the Midwest we bucked the trend coming in with home sales at an annual rate of 1.04 million units, up 1.0 percent from the month before.  The Midwest was the only region in May that saw an increase in the rate of home sales in May from the month before, all regions saw an increase from a year ago however.   Home prices in the Midwest didn’t fare as well as the rest of the country however, coming in at 147,700 which is an increase of 6.4 percent from a year ago, less than the 7.9 percent increase seen at the national level, however the month over month increase of 5.6 percent in the Midwest did top the 5.1 percent month over month increase at the national level. Continue reading “Midwest is only region with increased home sales in May

Existing home sales and prices increase in April;  Housing recovery is underway

dennis-norman-st-louis-realtor-existing-home-salesToday’s existing home sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® shows existing home sales in April were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.62 million units which is a increase of 3.4 percent from the month before and an increase of 10.0 percent from a year ago. The actual number of homes sold in April was 400,000 which is an increase of 11.1 percent from the month before and an increase of 6.7 percent from a year ago when there were 375,000 homes sold. Continue reading “Existing home sales and prices increase in April;  Housing recovery is underway

St Louis home sales outperforms U.S. market in March

dennis-norman-st-louis-realtor-existing-home-salesToday’s existing home sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® shows U.S. existing home sales in March decreased 2.6 percent from the month before but the Midwest region saw sales activity remain steady coming in at the same rate as the month before.  Here in St Louis the story is even better as home sales for the St Louis five-county core (City of St Louis and counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin) increased 22.5 percent from the month before and increased 12.4 percent from a year ago. (not seasonally adjusted – see chart below).

Continue reading “St Louis home sales outperforms U.S. market in March

Home sales slip slightly in February but up almost 9 percent from a year ago; home prices increase slightly

dennis-norman-st-louis-realtor-existing-home-salesToday’s existing home sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® shows existing home sales in February were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.59 million units which is a decrease of 0.8 percent from the month before and an increase of 8.8 percent from a year ago. The actual number of homes sold in February was 286,000 which is an increase of 10.0 percent from the month before and an increase of 13.0 percent from a year ago when there were 253,000 homes sold. Continue reading “Home sales slip slightly in February but up almost 9 percent from a year ago; home prices increase slightly

Existing home sales and prices increase in January

dennis-norman-st-louis-realtor-existing-home-salesToday’s existing home sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® shows existing home sales in January were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.57 million units which is an increase of 4.3 percent from the month before and an increase of 0.7 percent from a year ago. The actual number of homes sold in January was 257,000 which is 26.4 percent less than the month before and 4.0 percent more than a year ago when there were 246,000 homes sold. Continue reading “Existing home sales and prices increase in January

Existing home sales on the rise in August; on pace to beat last year

Dennis NormanSt. Louis home sales in August were up 20.7 percent from a year ago according to today’s home sales for major metropolitan report from the National Association of REALTORS®.  St. Louis’ increase in home sales topped the increase nationally which was 18.6 percent from a year ago.  St. Louis home pricesin August came in at a median of $132,700, down 1.6 percent from a year ago.  Nationally, median home prices were down 5.1 percent from a year ago.

For More St. Louis Market Data – Click Here Continue reading “Existing home sales on the rise in August; on pace to beat last year

Existing home sales drop in July; Actual 2011 home sales through July down 5 percent from same time last year

Dennis NormanToday’s existing home sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® shows existing home sales in July were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.67 million units which is a decrease of 3.5 percent from the month before, an increase of 21.0 percent from a year ago and is the lowest rate of home sales since November 2010 when it was 4.64 million. Continue reading “Existing home sales drop in July; Actual 2011 home sales through July down 5 percent from same time last year

Existing home sales drop in June; ‘Actual’ home sales highest in 12 months

Dennis NormanToday’s existing home sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® shows existing home sales in June were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.77 million units which is a decrease of 0.8 percent from the month before, a decrease of 8.8 percent from a year ago and is the lowest rate of home sales since November 2010 when it was 4.64 million. Continue reading “Existing home sales drop in June; ‘Actual’ home sales highest in 12 months

US Existing home sales in May fall to lowest level this year; St. Louis has largest decrease for third consecutive month

Dennis NormanToday’s existing home sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® shows existing home sales in May were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.81 million units which is a decrease of 3.8 percent from the month before and is a decrease of 15.3 percent from a year ago and is the lowest rate of home sales since November 2010 when it was 4.64 million. Continue reading “US Existing home sales in May fall to lowest level this year; St. Louis has largest decrease for third consecutive month

St. Louis Home Sales Down Over 30 percent in April; Worst decline of 20 major metros

Dennis Norman

St. Louis existing-home sales in April were down 30.1 percent from a year ago, after the prior month’s sales were down 20.3 percent from the year prior.  This disturbing trend points to a decrease in the number of home sales in St. Louis in 2011 from 2010, even though industry experts are predicting an increase in U.S. existing home sales this year over last. Continue reading “St. Louis Home Sales Down Over 30 percent in April; Worst decline of 20 major metros

St. Louis home sales and prices both down Over 20 Percent from a year ago

Dennis NormanToday’s existing home sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® shows existing home sales in March were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.1 million units which is an increase of 3.7 percent from the month before and is a decrease of 6.3 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “St. Louis home sales and prices both down Over 20 Percent from a year ago

St. Louis Existing Home Sales Rate down 8.6 percent in February; prices up 8.2 percent

Dennis NormanToday’s existing home sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® shows mixed signals for the St. Louis Real Estate market as our rate of existing home sales is down 8.6 percent from a year ago, significantly higher than the 2.8 decline for home sales nationwide, however, on a positive note, St. Louis home prices were up 8.2 percent in February from a year ago, the highest increase of the 20 major metro markets covered by the report and much better than the 5.2 percent DECREASE in home prices for the U.S. as a whole!

Continue reading “St. Louis Existing Home Sales Rate down 8.6 percent in February; prices up 8.2 percent

Existing home sales increase in January; fueled by falling home prices

Dennis NormanToday’s existing home sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® shows existing home sales in January were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.36 million units which is an increase of 2.7 percent from December and is an increase of 5.3 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “Existing home sales increase in January; fueled by falling home prices

St. Louis housing market finishes 2010 on an upward trend

Dennis NormanToday’s existing home sales report from the National Association of REALTORS(R) shows St. Louis area existing home sales for December were 3.1 percent higher than a year ago and  St. Louis area home prices in December were 7.8 percent higher than the year before.

Nationally, existing home sales in December were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.28 million units which is an increase of 12.3 percent from November and is a decline of 2.9 percent from a year ago. Preliminary numbers for 2010 show 4,908,000 existing homes sold which is a decrease of 4.8 percent from 2009 when there were 5,156,000 existing homes sold, and is just slightly lower than 2008 when there were 4,913,000 homes sold. Continue reading “St. Louis housing market finishes 2010 on an upward trend

Existing home sales increase in November; Down almost 28 percent from a year ago

Dennis Norman
Today’s existing home sales report from theNational Association of REALTORS(R) shows existing home sales in November were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.68 million units which is an increase of 5.6 percent from October and is a decline of 27.9 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “Existing home sales increase in November; Down almost 28 percent from a year ago

Existing home sales drops in October; down over 25 percent from year ago

Dennis Norman
Today’s existing home sales report from theNational Association of REALTORS(R) shows existing home sales in October were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.43 million units which is a decrease of 2.2 percent from September and is a decline of 25.9 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “Existing home sales drops in October; down over 25 percent from year ago

Existing home sales rate increases 10.0 percent in September

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

Today’s existing home sales report from theNational Association of REALTORS(R) shows existing home sales in September were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.53 million units which is an increase of 10.0 percent from August but is a a decline of 19.1 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “Existing home sales rate increases 10.0 percent in September

Existing home sales in August improve slightly reaching second-lowest rate in over fourteen years

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

After July’s existing home sales fell over 27 percent and hit ROCK BOTTOM, August didn’t fare much better…..

Today’s existing home sales report from theNational Association of REALTORS(R) shows existing home sales in August were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.13 million units which is an increase of 7.6 percent from July’s dismal rate but is a a decline of 19.9 percent from a year ago and the second-lowest sales rate in over 14 years (July was the lowest). Continue reading “Existing home sales in August improve slightly reaching second-lowest rate in over fourteen years

Home Sales Plummet in July to Record Low

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

Beginning last November I have written several articles about the “sugar-rush” effect of tax credits and other stimulus on the housing market and voicing my concern that these things are short lived (like a sugar rush on a child) and after the sugar wears off there is a crash….Well, as expected, here it is…

Today’s existing home sales report from theNational Association of REALTORS(R) shows existing home sales in St. Louis for July decreased 36.1 percent from a year ago.  For the  US as a whole, existing home sales in July were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 3.83 million units which is a decline of 27.2 percent from June and is a decline of 25.5 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “Home Sales Plummet in July to Record Low

Closing of Tax Credit Induced Home Purchases Prop-Up Market in June; St Louis Tops In Price Gain Among Metros

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

Last month I said that I expected to see some elevated numbers in the existing home sales report for May and June since this report would reflect the actual closing of the home purchases from buyers that raced to buy before the April 30th home-buyer tax credit deadline. Even though Congress has extended the deadline to close on these purchases until August 31st, the majority of the tax-credit induced sales will have closed by June 30th and therefore be reflected in today’s report which I would say has happened.

Today’s existing home sales report from theNational Association of REALTORS(R) shows existing home sales in June were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.37 million units which is a decline of 5.1 percent from May but is 9.8 percent higher than a year ago..

Prices on the rise for fourth consecutive month –

The median home price in the U.S. in June was $183,700 an increase of 5.2 percent from May and an increase of 1.0 percent from a year ago when the median price was $181,800.

Inventory levels increase-

Inventories decreased in May after being on the rise three consecutive months but were back on the rise again in June as the number of existing homes for sale in June finally increased to 3,992,000, an increase of 2.5 percent from May and an increase of 4.7 percent from a year ago. The number of months “supply” this inventory represented in June, based upon current sales levels, increased to 8.9 months making it the highest level since August 2009.

Metro Home Sales and Prices –

NAR publishes existing home sales for 20 major metropolitan areas of the U.S. Highlights from that report include:

  • Pittsburgh, PA pushed Portland out of the first spot where it reigned for three months with the largest year-over-year increase in existing home sales in June with Pittsburgh seeing an increase of 23.9 percent in sales from a year ago.
    • Boston, Massachusetts spent it’s second month at number two for June with a 23.7 percent increase in existing home sales from a year ago.
    • New York, NY was number three with a 21.0 percent increase in existing home sales from a year ago.
  • St. Louis led the way in price increases from a year ago, with June’s median home price of $161,500 representing a 9.9 percent increase from a year ago when the median price was $146,900.
    • San Diego, CA came in second for the second consecutive month with a median price of $397,600, a 8.4 percent increase from a year ago when it was $366,900.
    • Boston, MA came in third with a median price of $391,600, a 8.2 percent increases from a year ago when it was $361,800.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist,said the market shows uncharacteristic yet understandable swings as buyers responded to the tax credits. “June home sales still reflect a tax credit impact with some sales not closed due to delays, which will show up in the next two months,” he said. “Broadly speaking, sales closed after the home buyer tax credit will be significantly lower compared to the credit-induced spring surge. Only when jobs are created at a sufficient pace will home sales return to sustainable healthy levels.” (hey, I’ve been saying this for months :)

I don’t like “seasonally adjusted rates of sales”:

If you have been reading my posts for a while you know by now I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers when artificial stimuli, such as homebuyer tax-credits, can cause an unseasonal spike in sales activity. I much prefer to see the actual numbers and try to garner from them what is going on in the housing market.

The following are the ACTUAL Existing Home sales reported by NAR without any adjustment or fluff:

  • There were 564,000 existing homes sold in June which is a 7.2 percent increase from May and a 8.3 percent increase from a year ago.
  • Below are highlights from each region:
    • Northeast – 103,000 homes sold in June, a whopping increase of 30.4 percent from May and an increase of 14.4 percent from the year before.
    • Midwest – 131,000 homes sold in June, an increase of 0.8 percent from May and an increase of 9.2 percent from the year before.
    • South – 206,000 homes sold in June, an increase of 5.6 percent from May and an increase of 9.0 percent from the year before.
    • West – 124,000 homes sold in June, an increase of 1.6 percent from May and a increase of 1.6 percent from the year before.

Other highlights of the NAR Report:

  • Distressed sales accounted for 32 percent of all home sales in June, up from 31 percent in May.
  • First-Time homebuyers accounted for 43 percent of the home sales in June, down from 46 percent in May.
  • Investors were the buyers of 13 percent of the homes in June, down from 14 percent in May.
  • Repeat home buyers were responsible for approximately 44 percent of June’s sales up from 40 percent in May.

My Take On the Numbers:

We have clearly seen a boost to the housing market as a result of the home-buyer tax credit and continue to get a little support as the deals close. Unfortunately the economy still has major issues….Fannie Mae’s housing forecast in June took a sharp turn downward (which I will be writing about in the next day), unemployment increased today and there is still much political unrest in the country. I think the best we can hope for at this point is for some stabilization in the housing market which we are seeing some glimpses of. It will be quite a while before I will be using the “R” word though (recovery).

Home Sales Fall Slightly in May; Still Propped-Up By Tax Credit Deals

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

May and June Sales Expected to Remain Elevated as Buyers Rush to Close By June 30th Deadline for Tax Credits.

The deadline to buy a home and qualify for the home-buyer tax credit was April 30th so it’s not surprising we saw pending home-sales increase dramatically in March and April as buyers rushed to get “under-contract” before the April 30th deadline. For those home-buyers that were lucky enough to qualify for the home-buyer tax credit they have, unless Congress extends the deadline, until June 30, 2010 to close on the purchase of their home. Therefore, as I have said before, I fully expect to see “existing home sales” (a report that counts actual “closed” sales) elevated for May and June as these deals close.

Today’s existing home sales report from theNational Association of REALTORS(R), as expected, shows strong sales for the month of May. Existing home sales in May were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.66 million units which is actually a decline of 2.2 percent from April but is still 19.2 percent higher than a year ago.

Prices on the rise for third consecutive month –

The median home price in the U.S. in May was $179,600 an increase of 4.2 percent from April and an increase of 2.7 percent from a year ago when the median price was $174,800.

Inventory levels rescind-

After increasing for four consecutive months, the number of existing homes for sale in May finally decreased to 3,892,000, a decrease of 3.4 percent from April and an increase of 1.1 percent from a year ago. The number of months “supply” this inventory represented in May, based upon current sales levels, decreased slightly to 8.3 months from 8.4 months in April and a 14.4 percent decrease from a year ago when there was a 9.7 month supply.

Metro Home Sales and Prices –

NAR publishes existing home sales for 20 major metropolitan areas of the U.S. Highlights from that report include:

  • Portland, Oregon for the third consecutive month, saw the largest year-over-year increase in existing home sales in May with an increase of 40.6 percent in sales from a year ago.
    • Boston, Massachusetts went from number three last month to number two for May with a 36.2 percent increase in existing home sales from a year ago.
    • Philadelphia, Pennsylvania was number three with a 35.7 percent increase in existing home sales from a year ago.
  • Philadelphia, Pennsylvania led the way in price increases from a year ago, with May’s median home price of $265,700 representing a 28.5 percent increase from a year ago when the median price was $206,800.
    • San Diego, CA came in second with a median price of $391,400, a 18.2 percent increase from a year ago when it was $331,200.
    • Phoenix, Arizona came in third with a median price of $144,800, a 10.8 percent increases from a year ago when it was $130,700.
  • St. Louis saw an increase of 25.5 percent in existing home sales in May from a year ago and an increase of 6.5 percent in median home prices for the same period.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said he expects one more month of elevated home sales. “We are witnessing the ongoing effects of the home buyer tax credit, which we’ll also see in June real estate closings,” he said. “However, approximately 180,000 home buyers who signed a contract in good faith to receive the tax credit may not be able to finalize by the end of June due to delays in the mortgage process, particularly for short sales.”

I don’t like “seasonally adjusted rates of sales”:

If you have been reading my posts for a while you know by now I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers (nor does Standard & Poors now either as I wrote about), particularly when artificial stimuli, such as homebuyer tax-credits, can cause an unseasonal spike in sales activity. I much prefer to see the actual numbers and try to garner from them what is going on in the housing market.

The following are the ACTUAL Existing Home sales reported by NAR without any adjustment or fluff:

  • There were 526,000 existing homes sold in May which is a 0.8 percent increase from April and a 17.7 percent increase from a year ago.
  • Below are highlights from each region:
    • Northeast – 79,000 homes sold in May, a decrease of 16.0 percent from April and an increase of 11.3 percent from the year before.
    • Midwest – 130,000 homes sold in May, an increase of 8.3 percent from April and an increase of 21.5 percent from the year before
    • South – 195,000 homes sold in May, an increase of 2.1 percent from April and an increase of 21.9 percent from the year before.
    • West – 122,000 homes sold in May, an increase of 4.3 percent from April and a increase of 11.9 percent from the year before.

Other highlights of the NAR Report:

  • Distressed sales accounted for 31 percent of all home sales in May, down from 33 percent in April.
  • First-Time homebuyers accounted for 46 percent of the home sales in May, down from 49 percent in April.
  • Investors were the buyers of 14 percent of the homes in May, down from 15 percent in April.
  • Repeat home buyers were responsible for approximately 40 percent of May’s sales up from April’s 36 percent..

My Take On the Numbers:

Last month I said I expected “Pending Home Sales” to drop significantly from April and I still do, and I expected to see an increased level of “Existing Home Sales”, “although not at as high of level as April” and that is exactly what we see here. That was the “low-hanging fruit” though, the easy one to call. The harder thing to predict is just how much will the pending home sales numbers for May be and how much will existing home sales drop after the tax-credit deals are all done in June? Unfortunately my guess for both is “rather significantly”.

 

Existing Home Sales Increase In April As Tax Credits End

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

Sales increased for second consecutive month-

With the home-buyer tax credits ending April 30th, it’s not surprising that we saw an increase of home sales in March, and now in April, as buyers rushed to buy before the deadline to have a congract of April 30, 2010. According to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing home sales in the US in April increased 7.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.77 million units in April from a revised level of 5.36 million units in March, and increased 22.8 percent from a year ago when the rate was 4.70 million units (seasonally adjusted).

Prices on the rise for second consecutive month –

The median home price in the U.S. in April was $173,100 an increase of 2.1 percent from March’s $169,600 and an increase of 4.0 percent from a year ago when the median price was $166,500.

Inventories on the rise-

For the fourth consecutive month, the number of existing homes for sale in April increased bringing the total to 4,044,000, an increase of 11.5 percent from March and an increase of 2.7 percent from a year ago. The number of months “supply” this inventory represented in April, based upon current sales levels, increased to 8.4 months, up from 8.1 months in March but a 16.8 percent decrease from a year ago when there was a 10.1 month supply.

Local Hot Spots –

NAR publishes existing home sales for 20 major metropolitan areas of the U.S. Highlights from that report include:

  • Portland, Oregon for the second consecutive month, saw the largest annual increase in existing home sales in April with an increase of 49.2 percent in sales from a year ago.
    • Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania was number two with a 42.2 percent increase in existing home sales from a year ago.
    • Boston, Massachusetts was number three with a 41.8 percent increase in existing home sales from a year ago.
  • Indianapolis, Indiana led the way in price increases from a year ago, with April’s median home price of $124,600 representing a 17.1 percent increase from a year ago when the median price was $106,400.
    • Phoenix, Arizona came in second with a median price of $144,700, a 16.2 percent increase from a year ago when it was $124,500.
    • San Diego and Miami/Ft Lauderdale fell in behind Phoenix with annual median price increases of 15.4 percent, and 14.8 percent respectively.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the gain was widely anticipated. “The upswing in April existing-home sales was expected because of the tax credit inducement, and no doubt there will be some temporary fallback in the months immediately after it expires, but other factors also are supporting the market,” he said. “For people who were on the sidelines, there’s been a return of buyer confidence with stabilizing home prices, an improving economy and mortgage interest rates that remain historically low.”

I don’t like “seasonally adjusted rates of sales”:

If you have been reading my posts for a while you know by now I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers (nor does Standard & Poors now either as I wrote about), particularly when artificial stimuli, such as homebuyer tax-credits, can cause an unseasonal spike in sales activity. I much prefer to see the actual numbers and try to garner from them what is going on in the housing market.

The following are the ACTUAL Existing Home sales reported by NAR without any adjustment or fluff:

  • There were 521,000 existing homes sold in April which is a 21.4 percent increase from March and a 26.2 percent increase from a year ago.
  • Below are highlights from each region:
    • Northeast – 94,000 homes sold in April, an increase of 40.3 percent from March and an increase of 42.4 percent from the year before.
    • Midwest – 120,000 homes sold in April, an increase of 21.2 percent from March and an increase of 33.3 percent from the year before
    • South – 191,000 homes sold in April, an increase of 19.4 percent from March and an increase of 26.5 percent from the year before.
    • West – 116,000 homes sold in April, an increase of 12.6 percent from March and a increase of 9.4 percent from the year before.

Other highlights of the NAR Report:

  • Distressed sales accounted for 33 percent of all home sales in April, down from 35 percent in March.
  • First-Time homebuyers accounted for 49 percent of the home sales in April, up from 44 percent in March.
  • Investors were the buyers of 15 percent of the homes in April, down from 19 percent in March.
  • Repeat home buyers were responsible for approximately 36 percent of April’s sales down from March’s 37 pecent..

My Take On the Numbers:

For the past two months I have said that I am encouraged by the sales numbers as I am again this month. However I continue to echo my caution that I’m confident this boost is artificial and has been brought on by the homebuyer tax credit program coming to an end. The spring season has brought more homes on the market thereby increasing inventory, but the months supply doesn’t look bad at 8.4 months….but remember, that is based on a “seasonally adjusted” sales rate of 5.77 million homes; a rate that cannot and will not be sustainable in my opinion.

I think in May we will see “Pending Home Sales” drop significantly from April but we will still see an increased level of “Existing Home Sales” (although not at as high of level as April) as NAR counts “closed home sales” in this data, and since people that went under contract to buy before the April 30th deadline have until July 31st to close the sale, we won’t see the full effect of no tax credits on existing home sales until August.

Existing Home Sales Jump in March – St. Louis Shows Strong

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

According to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing home sales in the US in March increased 6.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.35 million units in March from a revised level of 5.01 million units in February, and increased 16.1 percent from a year ago when the rate was 4.61 million units (seasonally adjusted).

St. Louis Shows Strong Against Other Metros –

NAR publishes existing home sales for 20 major metropolitan areas of the U.S. which showed the St. Louis Real Estate Market in a pretty positive light.  St. Louis ranked 2nd of the metro’s in terms of one-year median home price increase with an increase in March of 19.8 percent from a year ago.  In terms of the increase in existing home sales in March from a year ago St. Louis came in fifth with a 25.6 percent increase

Highlights from the report-

  • The median home price in the U.S. in March was $170,700 an increase of 3.7 percent from February’s $164,600 and an increase of 0.4 percent from a year ago when the median price was $170,000.
  • The inventory of existing homes for sale in March actually increased 1.5 percent from the month before but, due to the increased rate of home sales, the “months supply” of homes decreased from 8.5 months to 8.0 months in March representing a decline of 5.9 percent for the month and a decline of 15.8 percent from a year ago when there was 9.5 months supply of existing homes for sale.
  • Distressed sales accounted for 35 percent of all home sales in March, the same as February.
  • First-Time homebuyers accounted for 44 percent of the home sales in March, up from 42 percent in February.
  • Investors were the buyers of 19 percent of the homes in March, the same as February.
  • Repeat home buyers were responsible for approximately 37 percent of March’s sales down from February’s 39 pecent..

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said it is encouraging to see a broad home sales recovery in nearly every part of the country, with two important underlying trends. “Sales have been above year-ago levels for nine straight months, and inventory has trended down from year-ago levels for 20 months running,” he said. “The home buyer tax credit has been a resounding success as these underlying trends point to a broad stabilization in home prices. This is preserving perhaps $1 trillion in largely middle class housing wealth that may have been wiped out without the housing stimulus measure.”

My Take On the Numbers:

Last month I said that I was somewhat encouraged by the existing home sales for February and that I thought “the housing market, at least in many areas of the country, is toying with the bottom”. After seeing strong numbers in March I am again encouraged. I do think however we should all have “cautious optimism” as almost half of March’s home sales were first time home buyers who could be racing to beat the April 30th deadline to buy. My guess is we will see pretty good sales numbers in April as well, then the next couple of months beyond that will tell us if the market truly has any staying power or if it was just the “sugar-rush” of the tax-credits that boosted the market.

You can see the complete report and a more in-depth analysis here.

 

February Existing Home Sales Vary By Region and Price

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

According to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing home sales in the US in February decreased 0.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.02 million units in February from a revised level of 5.50 million units in January, however this does represent an increase of 7.0 percent from a year ago when the rate was 4.69 million units (seasonally adjusted).

February’s Numbers Show Real Estate is “Local”

Reinforcing the fact that “all real estate is local” the February Existing Home Sales report paints quite a different picture of the housing market depending upon the region of the country:

  • Northeast region – February sales increased by 2.4 percent from January and were up 12.0 percent from a year ago
  • Midwest region – February home sales increased by 2.8 percent from January and were up 8.8 percent from a year agao.
  • South region – February home sales decreased by 1.1 percent from January but were up 6.9 percent from a year ago.
  • West region – February home sales decreased by 4.7 percent but were up 3.4 percent from a year ago.

Less is More

Over 72 percent of all existing home sales in February in the US (72.2 percent) were at sales prices of $250,000 or less with almost 36 percent of those sales being $100,000 or less. While most of the sales were in these lower price ranges, sales of higher priced homes in February were significantly higher than a year ago:

nar-feb-2010-existing-home-sales-by-price

Source: National Association of REALTORS

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said widespread winter storms in February may mask underlying demand. “Some closings were simply postponed by winter storms, but buyers couldn’t get out to look at homes in some areas and that should negatively impact near-term contract activity,” he said. “Although sales have been higher than year-ago levels for eight straight months and home prices are much more stable compared to the past few years, the housing recovery is fragile at the moment.”

I don’t like “seasonally adjusted rates of sales”:

If you have been reading my posts for a while you know by now I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers, particularly when artificial stimuli, such as homebuyer tax-credits, can cause an unseasonal spike in sales activity. I much prefer to see the actual numbers and try to garner from them what is going on in the housing market.

The following are the ACTUAL Existing Home sales reported by NAR without any adjustment or fluff:

  • There were 302,000 existing homes sold in February which is a 9.8 percent increase from January’s 275,000 sales and a 7.9 percent increase from February, 2009’s sales of 280,000 units.
  • Below are highlights from each region:
    • Northeast – 52,000 homes sold in February, 2010, an increase of 26.8 percent from January and an increase of 13.0 percent from the year before.
    • Midwest – 68,000 homes sold in February, 2010, an increase of 25.9 percent from January and an increase of 9.7 percent from the year before
    • South – 113,000 homes sold in February, 2010, an increase of 8.7 percent from January and an increase of 7.6 percent from the year before.
    • West – 69,000 homes sold in February, 2010, a decrease of 9.2 percent from January and a increase of 3.0 percent from the year before.

Other highlights of the NAR Report:

  • Median price of homes sold in February in the US was $165,100, about the same as January’s revised median sale price of $164,900 and is 1.8 percent less than the median price from a year ago.
  • Distressed sales accounted for 35 percent of all home sales in February, a decrease of 7.8 percent from January’s rate of 38 percent.
  • First-Time homebuyers accounted for 42 percent of the home sales in February, up from 40 percent in January.
  • Investors were the buyers of 19 percent of the homes in February, up from 17 percent in January.
  • Repeat home buyers were responsible for approximately 39 percent of February’s sales down from January’s 43 pecent..
  • Total housing inventory at the end of February was 3,589,000 homes for a 8.6 month supply, an increase of 10.3 percent from last months 7.8 month supply.

My Take On the Numbers:

I’m somewhat encouraged by this report and think that it supports my theory that the housing market, at least in many areas of the country, is toying with the “bottom”. I think we are going to see the market fluctuate “near the bottom” for some time and then we will see a recovery that I think will take some time to mature.

What to look out for:

  • Interest rates – Rates ALWAYS have an affect on the housing market…presently we have near record-low rates, however the Fed Reserve is indicating they will stop purchasing mortgage-backed securities in the next few days and industry experts feel this will lead to higher interest rates.
  • Tax Credits– By all indications the homebuyer tax credits have played a role in getting buyers to pull the trigger and has contributed to home sales. The credits come to an end April 30th, unless extended by Congress which I feel is doubtful, and then we will see what happens to the market afterward. First-time buyers, the biggest benificiaries of the credit, make up 40 percent of the sales currently, so they are s significant component.
  • Foreclosures – Foreclosures, REO’s and short-sales all put negative pressure on the housing market in terms of home prices and there is no end in site.
  • Underwater Borrower Sentiment– There are a record number of people “underwater” on their homes (owe more than their homes are worth) but, according to Robert Shiller, a noted economist, 80 percent of those borrowers still feel like they should continue to pay their mortgages and stick it out. According to a recent report by First Amercian CoreLogic, this sentiment changes dramatically once homeowners exceed 25 percent negative equity or exceed $70,000 in negative equity…according to the same report the average negative equity for underwater borrowers at the end of 2009 was $70,700. The number of underwater homeowners was 11.3 million at the end of 2009; if the sentiment of these homeowners change and they start walking away from their homes, look out housing market!

December home sales plummet but 2009 finishes stronger than 2008

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

NAR’s “seasonally-adjusted” numbers show sales down 16.7 percent for the month…2009 finishes with 5,156,000 homes sold…My projection for the year was 5,143,000 homes….missed it by 13,000 (2/10 of 1 percent) hmm..not bad for a “non-economist” :)

According to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing home sales in December decreased 16.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.45 million units in December from a revised level of 6.54 million units in November, and are 14.9 percent higher than the 4.74 million-unit pace in December 2008.

NAR’s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, said “It’s significant that home sales remain above year-ago levels, but the market is going through a period of swings driven by the tax credit.” I agree with his comment and think this month’s data shows my analogy last month of comparing the increase in homes sales to a kid’s sugar rush was proven right by the sales numbers released today.

I don’t like “seasonally adjusted rates of sales”:

If you have been reading my posts for a while you know by now I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers, particularly when artificial stimuli, such as homebuyer tax-credits, can cause an unseasonal spike in sales activity. I much prefer to see the actual numbers and try to garner from them what is going on in the housing market.

When looking at the ACTUAL Existing Home sales reported by NAR I found that home sales actually declined 12.1 percent from November’s sales of 471,000 units to 414,000 units in December. Comparing sales for December 2009 to the year before there was an increase of 14.7 percent.

We ended 2009 with 5,156,000 homes sold compared with 4,913,000 for 2008 reflecting an increase of 4.9 percent. In 2007 there were 5,652,000 homes sold putting 2009 9.6 percent behind 2007 in number of homes sold.

Other highlights of the NAR Report:

  • Median price of homes sold in December in the US was $178,300, an increase of 4.9 percent from November’s revised median price of $170,000 and an increase of 1.5 percent from December 2008 when the price was $178,700.
  • For all of 2009 the median price of homes sold was $173,500 down 12.4 percent from 2008’s median price of $198,100.
  • Distressed sales accounted for 32 percent of all home sales in December and for 36 percent of all home sales for 2009.
  • Total housing inventory at the end of December was 3,289,000 homes for a 7.2 month supply, an increase of 10.8 percent from last months 6.5 month supply.

‘Actual’ Existing home sales drop 5.2 percent in November; Up 4.2 percent from a year ago

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

NAR’s “seasonally-adjusted” numbers show sales up 7.4 percent for the month…”actual” numbers show a 5.2 percent decrease….Sales up 44 percent from last year, lest we not forgot last year was the worst in over 10 years…

According to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing home sales in November increased 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 6.54 million units in November from a revised level of 6.09 million units in October, and are 44.1 percent higher than the 4.44 million-unit pace in November 2008. Existing home sales are now at the highest level since February 2007 when it hit 6.55 million.

 

NAR’s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, said of the increase in existing home sales “This clearly is a rush of first-time buyers not wanting to miss out on the tax credit…”. I agree but would describe the effect of the homebuyer tax credits on the housing market like a kid’s sugar rush; the same analogy I used in a post about the spike in new home sales, which was followed a report earlier this week of new home sales taking a dive the following month.

I don’t like “seasonally adjusted rates of sales”:

If you have been reading my posts for a while you know by now I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers, particularly when artificial stimuli, such as homebuyer tax-credits, can cause an unseasonal spike in sales activity. I much prefer to see the actual numbers and try to garner from them what is going on in the housing market.

When looking at the ACTUAL Existing Home sales reported by NAR I found that home sales actually declined 5.2 percent from October’s sales of 498,000 units to 472,000 units in November. Comparing sales for November 2009 to the year before there was an increase of 46.6 percent but don’t forget, buyers we’re racing the clock to buy a home before the credit expired (it has since been extended).

Through November 30, 2009, there have been 4,743,000 homes sold compared with 4,552,000 at the same time last year for an increase of 4.2 percent. Now, while this is good, to keep it in perspective we have to remember we are comparing our current numbers to a year that saw the lowest number of existing homes sold in over 10 years. I’m not being a pessimist, I’m just saying we need to take this for what it is…baby steps toward a leveling-off of the market.

Other highlights of the NAR Report:

  • Median price of homes sold in November in the US was $172,600, ab about the same as October’s revised median price of $172,200 and down 4.3 percent from November, 2008 when the price was $180,300.
  • Distressed sales accounted for 33 percent of all home sales in November, up from 30 percent in October.
  • Total housing inventory at the end of November was 3,520,000 homes for a 6.5 month supply (based upon “seasonally adjusted rate of sale”) – by my calculations, based upon my estimate of sales of 5.143 million homes for 2009, I say the supply is equal to about 8.2 months. (Beware of the growing “shadow inventory” though…more on that later)

Existing home sales in Midwest drop 6.6 percent from July to August; St Louis down 9 percent

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

By: Dennis Norman

According to the latest report released today from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing home sales for August in the Midwest dropped 6.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.14 million units down from a level of 1.22 million units in July.  The August home sales rate of 1.14 million happens to be exactly what it was this time last year for the Midwest which is not as well as the US is doing as a whole.  As a whole, the rate of existing home sales in August was up 3.4 percent from a year ago with the West region being the biggest gainer, up 7.4 percent.

Median home prices in the US fell 2 percent in August from July and, here in the Midwest, we saw median home prices fall almost double that, 3.8 percent, from $155,900 in July to $149,900 in August, which represents a decline in price of 10.5 percent from a year ago.  Overall home prices in the US were down 12.5 percent from a year ago. Continue reading “Existing home sales in Midwest drop 6.6 percent from July to August; St Louis down 9 percent

St Louis Housing Market has 6.8 percent increase in homes sales in July

Dennis Norman

Dennis Norman

By: Dennis Norman

The St. Louis housing market is showing some signs of strength with St Louis home sales increasing in July to a seasonally adjusted rate of 21,038 homes, an increase of 6.8 percent from June’s seasonally adjusted rate of 19,691 homes.  This increase for the month is very close to the  increase in home sales in the U.S. according to the report released today from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing home sales in July rose 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.24 million units up from a level of 4.89 million units in June.

However St Louis home sales for July 2009 were the same as July 2008 showing no gain or loss in sales compared with an increase of 5 percent for the year on US home sales according to the National Association of REALTORS report.  To read about all the home sales and housing market data from the National Association of REALTORS(R) please click the following link:    Home Sales – Existing Home Sales July 2009 Continue reading “St Louis Housing Market has 6.8 percent increase in homes sales in July