March 2024 Mortgage Update: Serious Delinquencies Drop to Lowest Since Mid-2006

According to the latest report from Intercontinental Exchange, the U.S. mortgage market showed promising signs of stability in March 2024. The national delinquency rate decreased to 3.20%, marking a modest drop from February but remaining slightly higher than the record low observed in March 2023. Notably, serious delinquencies, which track loans 90+ days past due but not in active foreclosure, decreased significantly. These serious delinquencies fell by 24,000 cases—a 5.2% reduction from February, reaching their lowest level since mid-2006. This improvement is particularly significant as it occurred during a month that historically sees fluctuations due to its conclusion on a Sunday, a pattern observed only thrice in the last two decades.

In addition to a decrease in serious delinquencies, March saw a downturn in the number of loans in active foreclosure, dropping to 205,000—the fewest since January 2022 and 28% below pre-pandemic levels. Moreover, prepayment activity, often a sign of a healthy housing market, reached its highest point in seven months, encouraged by lower interest rates and the onset of the spring homebuying season. The attached chart below this article provides a visual depiction of these positive trends in delinquency and foreclosure data.


March 2024 – Mortgage Performance

March 2024 - Mortgage Performance 

Steady Increase in Commercial Real Estate Foreclosures Over the Past Year

Based on the data from the recent ATTOM report on U.S. commercial foreclosures, there is a noticeable trend that highlights the challenges and changes in the commercial real estate market over the past decade. The report indicates a significant increase in commercial foreclosures, rising to 625 in March 2024 from a low of 141 in May 2020—a time characterized by pandemic-induced economic shocks and responsive fiscal interventions. This sharp rise represents a 117% year-over-year increase and underscores a broader economic narrative where, despite short-term stabilizations, long-term market corrections have been a constant presence.

States like California, New York, and Florida have borne the brunt of these fluctuations. For instance, California experienced a dramatic 405% increase from last year, showcasing how regional factors and state-specific economic conditions have influenced foreclosure rates. This analysis not only offers insights into the challenges faced by the commercial real estate market but also highlights the sector’s resilience and capacity to navigate through a continuum of economic cycles.

The recent spike in commercial foreclosures has raised questions about the interconnectedness of the commercial and residential real estate markets. Historically, these two sectors have shown some level of correlation, as economic factors affecting businesses often spill over into the residential sphere. For instance, a downturn in commercial real estate can lead to job losses and reduced consumer spending, which in turn can soften the residential market. However, the current trends suggest a more complex relationship, with the residential market remaining relatively stable despite significant upheavals in commercial real estate.  In the coming months we’ll see if that trend continues.

US Commerical Foreclosures 2014 – 2024 (Chart)

US Commerical Foreclosures 2014 - 2024 (Chart)

St. Louis Residential Rental Vacancies for 2023 Hit Highest Level in Four Years

The latest residential vacancy rate data from the U.S. Census Bureau for the St. Louis Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) shows that the rental vacancy rate for 2023 was an average of 7.73% and increase of over a percentage point from the previous year. As the chart below illustrates, the average St Louis rental vacancy rate for 2023 was the highest in four years.


  

 

St Louis MSA Rental Vacancy Rate 2015-2023

St Louis MSA Rental Vacancy Rate 2015-2023

St. Louis Foreclosure Filings Plummet: Find Out What’s Happening in Your County

The St. Louis MSA has seen a notable decrease in foreclosure filings in the fourth quarter of 2023, with the numbers falling to 851, a 19% reduction from the previous quarter. When we look at the year-over-year data, the decline is even more significant, showing a 46% drop from the fourth quarter of 2022. This downward trend suggests a potentially stabilizing real estate market in the St Louis metro area, with fewer properties entering foreclosure.

Within this broader picture, certain counties have experienced remarkable changes. Monroe County, for instance, recorded a sharp increase of 60% in foreclosure filings from Q3, while Madison County saw filings decrease by 7% in the same period. Saint Clair County, which had faced a high volume of foreclosures, saw a 13% decrease from Q3 2023 and a substantial 79% drop from Q4 2022, reflecting a positive shift for homeowners in the area. This data, encapsulated in the accompanying table, offers a snapshot of the current market conditions and emerging trends in the St. Louis housing landscape.


  

 

St Louis Metro Area Foreclosure Filings – 4th Quarter 2023

St Louis Metro Area Foreclosure Filings - 4th Quater 2023

© 2024 St Louis Real Estate News – Data Source:  Attom Data Research

St. Louis Foreclosure Rates Drop in October, But Certain Counties Experience a Rise

The St. Louis MSA recorded 311 foreclosure actions in October 2023. This represents a significant decrease of 12% from September 2023 and a substantial decline of 71% compared to October 2022. This suggests a strong recovery or stabilization in the real estate market in the St. Louis area, indicating fewer homeowners are facing foreclosure compared to the previous year.


  

 

Month over Month and Year Over Year Change in Foreclosure Activity in the St Louis MSA (By County)

Month over Month and Year Over Year Change in Foreclosure Activity in the St Louis MSA (By County)

St Louis Foreclosure Activity Increases Over 32% From a Year Ago

During the 3rd quarter of this year, there were 1,200 properties with foreclosure filings in the St. Louis MSA, according to the U.S. Foreclosure Market Report by ATTOM Data. This marks a 17% increase in St. Louis foreclosures from the prior quarter and an increase of 32% in St Louis foreclosure activity from a year ago.

The table below reveals that the city of St Louis saw the most foreclosures during 3rd quarter, followed by the Illinois counties of St Clair and Madison.


  

St Louis Foreclosures – 3rd Quarter 2023

St Louis Foreclosures - 3rd Quarter 2023

St Louis YTD Foreclosure Activity Up Slightly From Last Year

So far this year, up until June 30, there have been 1,973 properties with foreclosure filings in the St. Louis MSA, according to the U.S. Foreclosure Market Report by ATTOM Data. This marks a 5% increase in St. Louis foreclosures compared to the same period last year, a surge of 119% from 2021, and a 5% uptick from 2020.

Now, let’s turn our attention to the counties in Illinois with the most significant increases in foreclosures: Macoupin and Bond…

As depicted in the table below, Macoupin County in Illinois experienced a 63% rise in foreclosure activity this year compared to last, and Bond County saw a similar upward trend with an increase of 60%.

On the other hand, let’s check out the Missouri counties of Jefferson and Warren, where we’ve seen the largest decreases in foreclosures…

The table below reveals that both Jefferson and Warren Counties in Missouri enjoyed a 50% reduction in foreclosure activity this year compared to the previous year.”

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St Louis Foreclosures – Jan-June 2023

St Louis Foreclosures - Jan-June 2023

St Louis Foreclosures Increase 36 percent In May from prior month

Last month, there were 460 properties with foreclosure filings in the St Louis MSA, according to ATTOM Data’s U.S. Foreclosure Market Report.  This represents an increase of 36% in St Louis foreclosures from April 2023 to May 2023 and a 28% increase from a year ago.

Counties of Macoupin, St Charles and St Louis see biggest increases…

As the table below shows, Macoupin County in Illinois saw an increase of 113% in foreclosure activity in May from the month before, St Charles County a 71% increase and St Louis County a 67% Increase.

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St Louis Foreclosures – May 2023

Missouri State Assistance for Housing Relief (SAFHR) Can Help Homeowners Struggling To Make Their Payments

The State of Missouri received $138 million from the U.S. Treasury’s Homeowners Assistance Fund (HAF) and are using those funds to help qualified homeowners that are struggling to make their house payments.  Missouri State Assistance for Housing Relief (SAFHR) is responsible for paying out these funds to help individual homeowners.

Who is eligible for assistance from SAFHR?

According to the SAFHR program guidelines, to qualify for SAFHR for Homeowners assistance, an individual or household must:

  • Earn no more than 150% of the area median income for the region where the property is located, as set forth in the HUD income guidelines for the St Louis metro area.
  • Have suffered a COVID-19 pandemic-related hardship that began on or after January 21, 2020, such as a loss of income or increase in household expenses related to the pandemic.
  • Require assistance with mortgage arrearage.

There are also 5 questions that, can answer “yes” to all of them, you are encouraged to submit an application to receive  Missouri State Assistance for Housing Relief (SAFHR) funds:

  1. Has your household experienced a financial hardship related to the COVID-19 pandemic since January 21, 2020?
  2. Are you a current resident of Missouri?
  3. Is the property you are seeking assistance for located in Missouri?
  4. Do you live on the property (primary residence) for which assistance is being requested?
  5. Do you have a mortgage on your home?

How do I apply for  Missouri State Assistance for Housing Relief (SAFHR)?

Well, if you appear to be eligible for assistance, the next step would to to register on the SAFHR site and complete an application. To access the registration form on the SAFHR site click here.

Mortgage Assistance Counseling is available as well.

As part of the SAFHR program, the Missouri Housing Development Commission (MHDC) has partnered with Mortgage Assistance Counseling agencies across the state of Missouri.  These agencies can help you complete your application for the SAFHR for Homeowners Program as well as help connect you with other services to avoid foreclosure.  To access the list of Mortgage Assistance Counseling agencies in Missouri, including the Missouri counties they serve  click here.

 

 

One in four St Louis city homeowners with a mortgage are underwater

Underwater Mortgage Photo

A new report just released by ATTOM Data revealed that nearly one of every four homeowners (24.3 %) in the city of St Louis that have a mortgage, are underwater on equity (meaning property owner owes at least 25% more on their home than the current value).  At the other end of the spectrum was St Charles County where just 3.9% of homeowners with a mortgage are underwater.

Below is a list of the larger counties in the St Louis MSA and the percentage of the mortgages in the respective county that was underwater during the 4th quarter of 2022:

  • City of St Louis, MO  (24.3%)
  • Saint Clair County, IL  (15.5%)
  • Madison County, IL  (13.4%)
  • Franklin County, MO  (10.5%)
  • St Louis County, MO  (9.7%)
  • Jefferson County, MO (8.1%)
  • St Charles County, MO (3.9%)

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St Louis Distressed Home Sales Trending Upward But Still Low

There have been a fair number of reports about the increase in distressed home sales in various markets around the country and on the national level.  However, in St Louis, distressed home sales are on the rise, they are still at levels that are historically quite low.

Distressed home sales that involve some sort of distress or other condition that would typically result in the home not selling for a normal “retail” price like it would if it were a typical listing in market ready condition with normal marketing time allowed.  The chart below shows distressed home sales in the St Lous 5-County core market over the past years and also shows the 12-month sales trend.  For our purposes, we include probate sales, short-sales, foreclosures, and bank and government owned homes as distressed sales. As the chart illustrates, the 12-month sales trend has increased for 5 consecutive months but is still at a level that is significantly lower than it has been for the bulk of the 5-year period illustrated on the chart.

St Louis 5-County Core Market Distressed Home Sale and 12-Month Trend for Past 5 Years

(click on chart for live, interactive chart with the latest data)

St Louis 5-County Core Market Distressed Home Sale and 12-Month Trend for Past 5 Years

St Louis Foreclosure Activity Increases Twenty-Five Percent In January From Year Ago

Last month, there were 307 properties with foreclosure filings in the St Louis MSA, according to ATTOM Data’s U.S. Foreclosure Market Report.  This represents an increase of 25% in St Louis foreclosures from January 2022 to January 2023.

It’s not as bad as it sounds…

While a 25% increase sounds bad, the chart below, which shows foreclosure filings for the St Louis MSA since 2006, puts it in perspective.  Last year, there were 4,066 total foreclosure actions for the year so even if our foreclosure activity for 2023 would continue to be 25% higher than last years level, it would put us at a little over 5,000 foreclosures for 2023.  As the chart below illustrates, if we finished 2023 at that level we would still be on the low end of the spectrum during the past 17 years.

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Continue reading “St Louis Foreclosure Activity Increases Twenty-Five Percent In January From Year Ago

St Louis Foreclosures Increased 46 Percent Last Year

During 2022, there were 4,066 properties with foreclosure filings in the St Louis MSA, according to ATTOM Data’s U.S. Foreclosure Market Report.  This represents an increase of 46% in St Louis foreclosures from 2021 and a 48% increase from 2020.

It’s not as bad as it sounds…

While the 2022 increase sounds bad, the chart below, which shows foreclosure filings for the St Louis MSA since 2006, puts it in perspective.  The foreclosure activity in St Louis last year, while higher than the two prior years mentioned above, was lower than the 14 years prior.  As the chart illustrates, as recently as 4 years ago, there was over 50% more foreclosure activity in St Louis than in 2022 and 5 years ago, in 2017 it was nearly double.

Having said that, we will likely see the foreclosure activity continue to increase and I am confident that the St Louis foreclosure activity in 2023 will surpass 2022, but hopefully we won’t get to the levels we’ve hit in the recent past.

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Continue reading “St Louis Foreclosures Increased 46 Percent Last Year

St Louis Home Flips During 3rd Quarter Decline Nearly 30% From Previous Quarter

There were 900 homes and condominiums “flipped” during the third quarter in the St Louis M.S.A., according to data just released by ATTOM Data Solutions.  As the chart below illustrates, these flips represent 6.6% of all sales during the 3rd quarter of 2022, a decrease of 28.8% from the prior quarter but an increase of over 15% from a year ago.

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St Louis Home Flipping Trends

St Louis Home Flipping Trends

St Louis Foreclosures In November Up Forty-Two percent from a year ago

During November, there were 255 properties with foreclosure filings in the St Louis MSA, according to ATTOM Data’s U.S. Foreclosure Market Report.  This represents an increase of 42% in St Louis foreclosures from November of 2021 but is a decline of over 76% from the prior month, according to the report.

As the chart below shows, 8 counties reported an increase in foreclosures from a year ago, 2 counties had a decrease in foreclosure activity and 5 had no change in activity.  Macoupin County, Illinois saw the largest increase at 367% followed by Warren  County, Missouri at 300%.

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St Louis MSA Foreclosure Activity – November 2022 vs November 2021

Data source: ATTOM Data Research – Copyright 2022 St Louis Real Estate News

St Louis Foreclosure Filings During Third Quarter Increase 45 Percent From A Year Ago

During the third quarter of this year, there were 907 properties with foreclosure filings in the St Louis MSA, according to ATTOM Data’s U.S. Foreclosure Market Report.  This represents an increase of 44.43% in St Louis foreclosures from the same quarter a year ago but is a decline of 16% from the second quarter of this year, according to the report.

As the table below shows, with the exception of Bond County in Illinois, all 15 counties reported had an increase in foreclosure activity during the 3rd quarter over last year, and all at least a double-digit increase.   Lincoln County, Missouri saw the largest increase at 325% followed by Macoupin County, Illinois at 293%.    Only five of the 15 counties saw an increase in foreclosure activity from the prior quarter.

Given the inflation numbers announced yesterday, rising interest rates and the rest of the economic challenges that exist we are likely to see a continued increase in foreclosure activity for the foreseeable future.

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St Louis MSA Foreclosure Activity – 3rd Quarter 2022

St Louis MSA Foreclosure Activity - 3rd Quarter 2022

Data source: ATTOM Data Research – Copyright 2022 St Louis Real Estate News

Flipped Home Percentage of Home Sales Increases – Profit Margins Decline

There were 94,766 homes and condominiums “flipped” during the third quarter in the U.S., according to data just released by ATTOM Data Solutions.  These flips represent 5.7% of all homes sales during the 3rd quarter of 2021, an increase of nearly 12% from the prior quarter when 5.1% of all homes sold were flips.

Gross profit margins dip to the lowest point since early 2011…

According to the report, the gross profit margin (the difference between the price paid for the flipped house when purchased versus the price paid by the new buyer when flipped) was $68,847.  This represents a 32.3% gross margin, the lowest gross margin percentage since the first quarter of 2011.

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U.S. Home Flipping Trends – Chart

U.S. Home Flipping Trends - Chart 

Foreclosure Filings In November Up 94% From Year Ago But Down 94% From 2010

Last month, there were foreclosure filings on 19,479 properties in the U.S., according to ATTOM Data’s U.S. Foreclosure Market Report.  This represents a decline of 5% from the month before but a 94% increase from a year ago, according to the report.

Let’s put it in perspective…

Data and statistics are funny things.  Even when accurately presented they can paint a picture that may sound worse, or better than the real situation behind the data.  This is why I consistently suggest that people don’t base opinions of the market, or make decisions, on one piece of data.  It takes many pieces of data to really paint the whole picture, just like in this case.  The headline that was reported by ATTOM Data (and repeatedly in many publications) is accurate, foreclosures are up 94% from a year ago.  But if there are currently 19,479 properties with a foreclosure filing, that means there were just 10,040 filings a year ago.  Granted, its bad to have anyone lose their home, but, historically speaking, these foreclosure numbers are low..very low.  For example, in April 2010, a couple of years after the housing bubble burst, there were 367,056 foreclosure filings that month.  So, last months number of 19,479 is 94% lower than April 2010.

Again, I’m not minimizing the significance of a foreclosure or the effect it has on those affected by it, I’m just trying to paint a more clear picture to show at this time, even though we’ve seen an increase, the numbers are still pretty low.

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Inflation Has Largest One-Year Increase In Over 39 Years – Will Home Prices Suffer?

As you’ve probably heard by now, the most recent inflation news was not good.  As the chart below illustrates, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all products in the U.S. (city average) for November 2021 was 303.4, an increase of 6.88% from a year ago when it was 284.1.  This is the highest 12-month increase in inflation we have seen in over 39 years, since June 1982.

What effect will this record-setting increase in inflation have on home prices?

The second chart below depicts the percentage change in the inflation rate from a year ago (the blue line)  as well as the percentage change in the St Louis home price index from a year ago (the red line).  As you look at the chart and reference the marked-up one I have below it, you will see a pattern.  Historically, when inflation rates increase significantly and consistently from a year ago, lower home prices follow.   Will this happen this time as well?  It’s hard to say right now as we still have an incredibly low supply of homes on the market, which tends to fuel higher prices, and we’ll need to see if the rise in inflation is sustained over the next few months.  For the time being, I’ll make the prediction that in 2022 we will see, at a minimum, a flattening of home prices…so maybe not a decline, but a pause on the rate of increase.  Time will tell.

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Continue reading “Inflation Has Largest One-Year Increase In Over 39 Years – Will Home Prices Suffer?

Number of St Louis Distressed Home Sales Declined Over 90 Percent In Past 10 Years

There were a total of 550 home sales in the St Louis 5-County core market during the 12-month period ended August 31, 2021, a decline of over 90 percent  (90.5%) from the same period 10 years earlier.  As the chart below (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) illustrates, the St Louis distressed home sales 12-month trend peaked in May 2013 with 6,078 distressed home sales in the prior 12-month period and has fallen to just 550 distressed home sales for the 12-month period ended August 31, 2021.  For the purposes of this report, distressed home sales include the sale of homes previously foreclosed on and being sold by banks or a government entity (such as FHA/VA) and short sales.  Given that there has been a foreclosure moratorium in place for several months during the past year it’s not surprising the current trend is down but as the chart shows, the trend has been steadily downward since late 2013.

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St Louis 5-County Distressed Home Sales – 01/01/2011 – 8/31/2021

(click on chart for live, interactive chart)

St Louis 5-County Distressed Home Sales - 01/01/2011 - 8/31/2021

Federal Court Overturns the CDC Ordered Eviction Moratorium

UPDATE:  After the decision by to overturn the eviction moratorium was decided upon by Judge Dabney L. Friedrich on May 5th, at 6:54pm that evening the U.S. Government filed a notice of appeal as well as a motion for an emergency stay to not have the eviction moratorium lifted until after the appeal.   Judge Dabney L. Friedrich through a Minute Order, granted the stay, thereby leaving the eviction moratorium in place for now but noting that “This Minute Order should not be construed in any way as a ruling on the merits of the defendants’ motion.”  The judge allowed the plaintiff’s until May  12th to file opposition to the motion to stay and then the U.S. government 4 days to respond to the plaintiff’s opposition.

So, for now, the eviction moratorium stands…

05/05/2021
MINUTE ORDER. Before the Court is the defendants’ 57 Emergency Motion for a Stay Pending Appeal of this Court’s 53 May 5, 2021 Order vacating the national eviction moratorium at 86 Fed. Reg. 16,731. In this emergency motion, the defendants request an immediate administrative stay to give this Court time to consider and rule upon its motion to stay this case pending appeal. Alternatively, the defendants request that the Court stay its 53 May 5, 2021 Order as to all parties except for the plaintiffs. Defs.’ Emergency Mot. for a Stay Pending Appeal at 1 n.1, 8-9, Dkt. 57. Although the plaintiffs have not yet filed an opposition to the defendants’ motion, which was filed at 6:54 p.m. this evening, the defendants represent that the plaintiffs oppose the motion. Id. at 1 n.1. In order to give the Court time to consider the merits of the defendants’ 57 Emergency Motion for a Stay Pending Appeal, and the plaintiffs time to file an opposition to the motion, the Court will grant the defendants’ request for a temporary administrative stay.

This Minute Order should not be construed in any way as a ruling on the merits of the defendants’ motion. The Court notes, however, that, as the Court has explained, see Mem. Op. at 19, Dkt. 54, the law in this Circuit is clear: where a court concludes that an agency has exceeded its statutory authority, as this Court has done here, see Mem. Op. at 17, vacatur of the rule is the proper remedy in this Circuit. See Nat’l Mining Ass’n v. U.S. Army Corps of Eng’rs, 145 F.3d 1399, 1409 (D.C. Cir. 1998). Based on this clear authority, courts in this Circuit do not restrict vacatur only to those plaintiffs before the Court. See, e.g., O.A. v. Trump, 404 F. Supp. 3d 109, 152-53 (D.D.C. 2019). Indeed, the government has been unable to point to a single case in which a court in this Circuit has done so. See Mot. Hr’g Rough Tr. at 31.

Accordingly, it is ORDERED that the Court’s 53 May 5, 2021 Order is administratively STAYED. It is further ORDERED that the plaintiffs shall file any opposition to the defendants’ motion on or before May 12, 2021, and the defendants shall file any reply within four days of the date the plaintiffs’ opposition is filed. So Ordered by Judge Dabney L. Friedrich on May 5, 2021. (lcdlf1)

(Entered: 05/05/2021)

Today, United States District Judge Dabney L. Friedrich issued an oder setting aside the CDC Ordered nationwide eviction moratorium that, prior to this order, was in effect until June 30, 2021.  For the entire opinion from the court, click “>HERE and then scroll down to the first big red button titled “Court Order Lifting Rental Eviction Moratorium May 5, 2021”.

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St Louis Rental Vacancy Rate Climbs To Highest Rate In Over a Year

The St Louis MSA rental vacancy rate during the 1st quarter of 2021 was 6.4%, the highest rate since the 4th quarter of 2019, according to data recently released by the U.S. Census Bureau.  During the 1st quarter of last year, the St Louis rental vacancy rate was 5.5%..


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St Louis Rental Vacancy Rates – 2005 – Present

(click on table for complete data from 2005 – present)St Louis Rental Vacancy Rates - 2005 - Present

 

CFPB Proposes Banning Foreclosures Through The End Of This Year

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) earlier this week proposed rule changes that would help prevent “avoidable foreclosures” that will come about when the current foreclosure ban expires June 30th.  According to the CFPB, nearly 3 million homeowners are delinquent on their mortgages as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the economic issues that have come about as a result.

The CFPB’s proposed rule changes include:

  • Require a pre-foreclosure review period that would generally prohibit loan servicers from starting foreclosure until after December 31, 2021 on loans secured by a borrower’s principal residence.
  • Permit loan servicers to offer “certain streamlined loan modification options to borrowers with COVID-19-related hardships.”

The CFPB is going to accept comments on their proposed rules until May 11, 2011 and then afterward will decide how to proceed.

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About the CFPB (from their website)

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is a 21st century agency that helps consumer finance markets work by making rules more effective, by consistently and fairly enforcing those rules, and by empowering consumers to take more control over their economic lives. For more information, visit www.consumerfinance.gov.

COVID-19 Pandemic Driven Serious Mortgage Delinquencies To Highest Levels Since The Great Recession

According to a report just released by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), titled “Housing insecurity and the COVID-19 pandemic“, there are over 2 million homeowners that have fallen behind at least three months on their mortgage payments.  This represents a 250% increase from pre-Covid-19 levels and is now at a level we haven’t seen since the height of the Great Recession in 2010.

Homeowners with an FHA mortgage delinquency rates double rate for all loans:

As the chart below shows, homeowners with an FHA mortgage hit a serious mortgage delinquency rate of 10.8% during the 3rd quarter of 2020, with the rate for all mortgages was just under half that at 5.2%.

Serious Mortgage Delinquency Rate By Loan Type- Q1 2005 – Q3 2020

Seroious Mortgage Delinquency Rate By Loan Type- Q1 2005 - Q3 2020

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Continue reading “COVID-19 Pandemic Driven Serious Mortgage Delinquencies To Highest Levels Since The Great Recession

Home Foreclosure Ban Extended Through End of June – Is this a ticking time bomb?

President Joe Biden on Tuesday extended the ban on home foreclosures for federally backed mortgages until June 30, 2021.  This is the second extension of the ban which was originally set to expire January 31, 2021, but then previously extended by President Biden to March 31, 2021.

Meanwhile, as the chart below shows, serious delinquencies on home mortgages have been on the rise since nearly the beginning of the pandemic almost a year ago.  The ban on foreclosures is certainly a welcome relief to those struggling to make their house payments. However, with such a high delinquency rate one has to wonder if it is just delaying the inevitable and that this is sort of a ticking time bomb for the real estate market?  I say that because with the number of mortgage delinquencies piling up it is safe to assume that once the ban is over there will be a massive amount of foreclosures hitting the market which may very well have a negative impact on the market.

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Mortgage Delinquency Rates
Mortgage Delinquency Rates 

Distressed Home Sales In St Louis Down 25% Last Year

As I reported a couple of days ago, home sales (non-distressed) in St Louis were up around 8% in 2020 verses 2019 however, distressed home sales were down 25% in 2020 from the year before.  For several months of 2020, there were moratoriums on foreclosures which would lower the number of distressed sales and are no doubt largely responsible for the decline in sales.  For the sake of this report, “distressed” sales include foreclosures, short sales, and property owned by banks or the government.

During 2020, there were 894 sales of distressed homes, down 25% from 2019 when there were 1,191 sales.  The median price of distressed homes sold during 2020 was $71,788 an increase of nearly 14% from 2019 when the median price was $63,000.  There are currently 54 active listings of distressed homes representing a one-month supply.

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STL Market Report – St Louis 5-County Core Market

(Distressed home sales only- click report for live report)

STL Market Report - St Louis 5-County Core Market- distressed home sales

Rental Income Rebounding Somewhat After Taking a Dive

As a result of the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, as well as the impact of eviction moratoriums and the like, residential rental income for the apartment sector in the U.S. took a nose dive during the 2nd quarter of 2020.  As the chart below shows, the total revenue for businesses from Rental and Leasing, dropped to $156 Billion during the 2nd quarter of last year, a decline of 16% from the quarter before when the total revenue was nearly $186 Billion.  During the 3rd quarter however, rental revenue rebounded to nearly $180 Billion.

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Total Revenue For Real Estate and Rental and Leasing, Establishments Subject to Federal Income Tax – 2012 – Present

(click on chart for Live Chart)


Total Revenue For Real Estate and Rental and Leasing, Establishments Subject to Federal Income Tax - 2012 - Present

Individual landlords appear to be doing better…

As the chart below shows, individual landlords appear to have fared a better than their corporate counterparts.  Residential rental revenue for individuals fell over the summer months of last year to a low of $791 Billion in June which was a decline of about 1.6% from March 2020 when the rental revenue was $804 Billion.  In November, the rental revenue grew to $818.7 Billion which represents the highest level ever.

Rental Income of Individuals – 2000 – Present

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ental Income of Individuals - 2000 - Present

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Coming Soon To A REALTOR® Near You – Commission Transparency

The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) has come under attack over the past few months as a defendant in two class-action lawsuits, Christopher Moehrl v The National Association of REALTORS® and Joshua A. Sitzer and Amy Winger v The National Association of REALTORS® filed in March and April of 2019 respectively, and, most recently, a complaint brought by the Department of Justice, United States v National Association of REALTORS® filed this month.  The latter came with a pre-arranged proposed settlement with NAR.  I should also mention the two class-action lawsuits have as additional defendants Realogy Holdings Corp (the own and operate several franchises, some of the local ones include Coldwell Banker-Gundaker, Better Homes & Gardens, ERA, Sotheby’s, and Century-21), HomeServices of America, Inc. (owner of Berkshire Hathway Home Services), Re/Max and Keller Williams.

While there are additional issues raised in the lawsuits and DOJ complaint, central to them are buyer’s agents’ commissions.  Issues raised include:

  • From the DOJ complaint:
    • Allowing buyer brokers to misrepresent to buyers that a buyer broker’s services are free;
    • Enabling buyer brokers to filter MLS listings based on the level of buyer broker commissions offered and to exclude homes with lower commissions from consideration by potential home buyers;
  • From the lawsuits:
    • Sellers of residential property have been forced to pay inflated costs to sell their homes through forced payments of commissions to buyer brokers;
    • Home sellers have been forced to set buyer broker commissions to induce buyer brokers to show the sellers’ homes to prospective buyers;
    • Price competition has been restrained among brokers seeking to be retained by home buyers, and by brokers seeking to represent home sellers; and
    • Defendant Franchisors and their franchisees have inflated their profits by a significant margin by the increased total commissions and increased buyer broker commissions.

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Continue reading “Coming Soon To A REALTOR® Near You – Commission Transparency

St Louis Area Vacant Property Rate and Zombie Foreclosure Rate On The Rise

Zombies are on the rise in St Louis! I’m referring, of course, to Zombie foreclosures and not the spooky creatures from scary movies.  A zombie foreclosure is a property that is in “pre-foreclosure” meaning it is in the foreclosure process but has not been yet foreclosed upon and is vacant or abandoned by the current owner.  We saw the levels of zombie foreclosures rise significantly after the housing bubble burst back in 2008 but then fall around 2012 as the market began its recovery.  For the 3rd quarter of 2020, according to ATTOM Data Research, 10.8% of the homes in pre-foreclosure were vacant or otherwise known as “zombies foreclosures”.  This is a fairly significant increase in the zombie rate from the prior quarter when 7.79% of the pre-foreclosures were vacant.  A year ago, during the 3rd quarter of 2010, the zombie foreclosure rate was 7.77%.

St Louis vacant property rate rises during 3rd quarter as well..

As the table below also illustrates, 2.95% of the more than 1,000,000 residential properties in the St Louis MSA were vacant during the 3rd quarter of 2020 which is an increase from 2.88% for the 2nd quarter of 2020 as well as an increase from a year ago when the vacancy rate was 2.86%.

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St Louis Area Vacant Homes and Zombie Foreclosures

St Louis Area Vacant Homes and Zombie Foreclosures

 

Over 40 Percent Of Homeowners With Mortgage In 3 North St Louis Zip Codes Are Underwater

During the second quarter of 2020, 45.5% of the homeowners with a mortgage within the 63115 zip code, were underwater on their mortgage, meaning they were in a negative-equity position, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Research.  As the table below shows, the north county zip codes of 63137 and 63136 were not far behind at 45.1% and 41.3%, respectively.  Of the 10 St Louis-area zip codes with the highest rate of underwater homeowners, 7 were in St Louis County and 3 in the City of St Louis.

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St Louis Underwater (Negative-Equity) Homeowners By Zip Code – Top 10 HighestSt Louis Underwater (Negative-Equity) Homeowners By Zip Code - Top 10 Highest

(Click on table for live, complete list)