By Dennis Norman, on February 14th, 2020 As you may have noticed, I’ve been pretty optimistic about the outlook for the real estate market this year however, that is not always the case as I call it like I see it. The reason for my optimism is based upon what a true data geek like myself would base it upon, data! So, what’s the data that has me believing 2020 will be a good year for the housing market in St Louis and beyond? Several things:
As I have been reporting here for the past couple of years now, mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates have continued to Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on November 19th, 2019 In August, the overall mortgage delinquency rate (30 or more days past due) was 3.7% for the U.S. which is a 0.2 percentage point decline from a year ago and is the lowest overall delinquency rate in 14-years, according to date just released by CoreLogic. The delinquency rate for August of 3.7% marks the lowest delinquency rate during the month of August in 20 years. The serious delinquency rate (120+ days late) decline of 1.2% a year ago to just 1.0% in August 2019, nearly a record low. The Foreclosure Rate fell in August 2019 to 0.4% from 0.5% a Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on November 3rd, 2019 Thanks to a strong economy and low-interest rates, the actual cost of a home today in St Louis is lower than it was a year ago, in spite of the fact that the median price of homes sold in St Louis has increased by 5.64% in the past year. Most people buying a typical home in St Louis finance nearly all of the purchase price, therefore, the cost of financing plays a significant role in the true cost of a home. Buyers decide what they can afford (as do lenders) based upon the house payment, not the price of the Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on August 1st, 2019 Yesterday afternoon, the Federal Reserve released a statement that was quite a vote of confidence for how the economy is doing. The Fed Reserve’s statement included “…the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low.” and went on to say “Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low;”.
As a result of the positive economic conditions, the Federal Open Market Committee announced it would lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on February 19th, 2019 After mortgage interest rates on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage nearly hit 5 percent back in November, they have steadily declined and this past week fell to an average of 4.37% according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Last weeks 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate of 4.37% was the lowest average rate report by the survey since Feb 8, 2018, when the average rates were 4.32%.
The outlook for mortgage interest rates looks promising as well with the most recent Fannie Mae Housing Forecast predicting the 30-year fixed rate will stay at 4.5% through the end of 2020.
Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 20th, 2018 The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), in their Mortgage Finance Forecast released this week predicted that interest rates on home mortgages will continue to rise this year and will hit 5% early next year. According to the report, the interest rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is expected to come in at an average of 4.6% for the 3rd quarter, which just ended and then rise to an average of 4.9% during the last quarter of this year. Interest rates are then forecast to hit 5.0% during the 1st quarter of 2019, rise to 5.1% by the second quarter, then Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on July 19th, 2018 Today, Freddie Mac, through their Primary Mortgage Market Survey® revealed that for the current average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is at 4.52%. which is just a slight decline from a week ago when the rate was 4.53% and the same as the week before that. After 30-year fixed-rate mortgages hit 4.66%, the highest rate in 7-years, back in late May, they have been trending downward a little, which is good news for the real estate market!
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average – 2000 – Present
(Click on Chart for LIVE chart with current data)
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By Dennis Norman, on June 15th, 2018 Mortgage interest rates have been on the rise and hit their highest level in seven years toward the end of May, however, the higher rates don’t appear to be having an effect on the number of people in St Louis obtaining home loans yet. The table below is based upon the latest data from ATTOM Data Research, just released yesterday, and shows that there were 6,830 home purchase mortgage loans obtained in the St Louis metro area during the 1st quarter of this year. This represents an increase of nearly 10% from the number of home purchase mortgage loans that Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 25th, 2018 Freddie Mac has been tracking average mortgage rates since 1971 through their Primary Mortgage Market Survey® and yesterday it revealed that, as the chart below shows, the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was at 4.6%, the highest rate in over 7 years. The last time mortgage interest rates were this high was back on May 5, 2011 when the 30-year rate hit 4.71%.
Even with the recent increase, mortgage interest rates are still reasonably low from a historical perspective. As the second chart below illustrates, 20 years ago the rates were around 8 percent. Mortgage interest rates Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on December 9th, 2016 According to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) released yesterday for the past week, interest rates on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased 5 basis points (1/20th of 1%) to 4.13 percent , the highest rate they have been at during 2016. Last year at this time the PMMS showed average interest rates at 3.95 percent so, while rates have increased over the past year, the amount has been fairly small. Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 6th, 2016 In mid-April the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced a new program aimed to help homeowners with a Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac loan that are seriously underwater on equity, meaning that their mortgage balance is at least 115 percent of the current value of their home. This new principal reduction modification program offers, to those that qualify, a one-time reduction in the balance of their mortgage to bring them out of a negative equity position. Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on February 14th, 2016 For those that have been reading my articles for a while, you know I am not a Pollyanna when it comes to the real estate market, opting instead to tell it like it is, even when the news is not so encouraging. For that reason, as well as the data behind my opinion, I think my suggestion that now is a good time to buy a home in St Louis should be considered to be a credible opinion from an industry insider. Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on July 7th, 2015 The median price of homes sold in St Louis (the 5-county core market) this year thus far has been $169,000, an increase of 5.7 percent from when the market peaked in 2006 at $159,900. While the peak of the housing bubble is considered to be 2006, as the chart below shows, St Louis home prices actually peaked in 2007 at $162,000 but, in either event, St Louis home prices have not only regained what was lost when the housing bubble burst, but then some. Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on July 2nd, 2015 St Louis bank and government owned home sales are down as banks and government enterprises such as Fannie Mae, FHA, VA and Freddie Mac whittle down their inventory of foreclosed homes while, at the same time, new mortgage delinquencies and foreclosure rates continue to decline. While this is Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 22nd, 2015
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) issued a release yesterday stating that while that agency acts as conservator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, no “property of the Agency shall be subject to levy, attachment, garnishment, foreclosure, or sale without the consent of the Agency.” The release went on to say that Title 12 United States Code Section 4617(j)(3) “precludes involuntary extinguishment of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac liens while they are operating in conservatorships and preempts any state law that purports to allow holders of homeownership association (HOA) liens to extinguish a Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac lien, Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on November 25th, 2014 Today, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) told Fannie May and Freddie Mac to change their policies to allow foreclosed homeowners the opportunity to buy their home back at the property’s fair-market value, just like any other purchaser can. Currently, if a foreclosed homeowner wanted to buy their home back from Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac they would be required to pay the entire amount owed on their previous mortgage although a non-related purchaser, not buying the home for the benefit of the former homeowner, only has to pay the current fair market value.
“This is a targeted, but important Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 22nd, 2014 Around this time of year every year, people start asking me “Where is the real estate Market headed next year?” The real estate market is affected by so many factors that predictions on what the market will do are hard, however there are some basic fundamentals that can be looked at to make a good educated guess. One of the industry experts out there that I think does a good job at this and, offers a somewhat less biased look at the market than some, is Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac. Below are highlights of his most recent report on the outlook of the housing market along with my comments relating his projection to our St Louis market: Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on September 19th, 2014 Mortgage Interest Rates rose this week to an average of 4.23 percent for a 30-year fixed rate home loan, up from 4.12 percent last week, marking the largest one-week jump in interest rates we have seen thus far this year, according to data just released by Freddie Mac. Mortgage interest rates for fixed-rate loans have now hit the highest level since May 1st.
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Mortgage interest rates from the Freddie Mac report:
30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 4.23% Last week Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on August 15th, 2014 Mortgage interest rates fell to an average of 4.13 percent in July on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, marking the lowest mortgage interest rate we have seen in over a year. The last time mortgage interest rates were this low was back in June of 2013 when the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 4.07 percent, according to the latest data from Freddie Mac.
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Source: Freddie Mac
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By Dennis Norman, on July 18th, 2014 Mortgage interest rates, in spite of predications to the contrary by many, are actually lower today than a year ago, according to the latest date available from Fredde Mac. According to Freddie Mac, the U.S. average interest rate for a 30 year mortgage was 4.15 percent on July 10, 2014, down significantly from July 11, 2013 when the average 30 year mortgage rate was 4.51 percent.
As the interactive chart below from the St Louis Fed Reserve shows, mortgage interest rates have definitely risen from the historic lows we say in 2012 and part of 2013 however are still lower Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 7th, 2013 As we enter the 7th day of the government shut down, concern grows among home buyers and sellers as to how this may affect the transactions here in St Louis. The short answer is that, fortunately, it appears the impact will be minimal for the most part. This morning at a meeting of the St Louis Industry Forum, which I chair, this topic was discussed and from the input of the real estate-related professions represented, it appears the impact of the government shutdown on real estate transactions here will be minimal.
Shelly Clark, President of Cardinal Surveying, said that there Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on March 5th, 2013 homeowners should be aware that no one other than your present lender can guarantee any form of mortgage relief. Below are six (6) warning signs to look for that may indicate you are dealing with a loan modification scammer: Continue Reading →
By Robert Fishel, on December 19th, 2012 Freddie Mac says about 30% of borrowers this year have opted for shorter-term home loans when they refinance, with most picking a 15-year mortgage. Shorter-term loans are particularly attractive to people “who have been homeowners for a number of years…or who want the security of knowing they will own their home free and clear when they retire,” Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on December 11th, 2012 I continue to see encouraging news about the housing market and today was no exception. The Freddie Mac housing market outlook for December was released and included a very encouraging outlook for the real estate market in 2013 by its chief economist, Frank Nothaft. Not that I’m on the same level as Northaft, but I will be coming out later this month with a short market recap video for 2012 as well as an outlook for 2013, both specifically for the St Louis real estate market. In the meantime, below are the highlights from Mr Nothaft’s projections for the U.S. Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on November 1st, 2012 For anyone that has been through the short sale process, or knows someone that has, they will attest to the fact that short sales are not “short” but, instead, are typically long, drawn out processes with many layers of approvals and much red tape. Good news! Beginning today, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac took steps to shorten the short sale process as well as reduce the amount of red tape, by no longer requiring approved private mortgage insurance companies to come to them (Fannie and Freddie) for approvals on short sales or deeds in lieu of foreclosure. This is a significant change from the current policy and should definitely make the short sale process less drawn out going forward. Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on September 20th, 2012 In spite of warning from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the St. Louis Association of REALTORS (SLAR) and other housing-related groups of the damage the “Mortgage Foreclosure Intervention Code” (Bill #174 introduced by Hazel Erby, District 1) could do to the already struggling St Louis housing market, including increasing the cost of home mortgages, last month the St. Louis County Council passed the bill, it was signed into law by County Executive Charlie Dooley and will go into effect on September 28, 2012. Then, just last week, Lewis Reed, President of the St. Louis Board of Alderman, introduced what is a basically the same bill in an attempt to get the same law enacted by the City of St. Louis. Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on August 24th, 2012 I have good news for homeowners that are underwater on the mortgage and need to do a short sale, or for buyers looking to buy a short sale. The Federal Housing Financing Agency just issued new guidelines to lenders that service Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans that are intended to “offer a streamlined short sale approach” which will be music to the ears of anyone that has been through the process. I don’t always agree with the actions of the FHFA but I think this is a good move and will help the market. The new guidelines, which go into effect November 1, 2012, include: Continue Reading →
By Peter Wright, on July 5th, 2012 Interest rates have been strong all year, last week however, we saw mortgage backed securities rally each day and with the release of unemployment figures on Friday we are now officially sitting at historic lows! If you have not taken advantage of these rates…what are you waiting for? Maybe you have been told that you don’t have enough equity in your home due to the housing market trending down over the past few years? Continue Reading →
By Robert Fishel, on March 21st, 2012 Mortgage rates have been rising nonstop since the end of last week. If you are considering a refinance or taking the plunge and buying a new home, you’d better get moving. I just had a prospect shop rates and terms for his new home over the last couple of weeks and just called back; he finally decided on a lender and wanted an updated rate quote to lock his loan. Needless to say, he was terribly disappointed…the rates we originally spoke about on a 30 year fixed rate a couple of weeks ago was in the high 3’s, my quote yesterday was 4.25% (4.45% APR ). Continue Reading →
By Peter Wright, on March 5th, 2012 There are approximately 11-Million homeowners that are underwater, which represents about 23% of all outstanding mortgages. So, here comes another program to help the America Homeowner! Is it hype…or will it help?
Well, the new HARP program (Home Affordable Refinance Program) was released in
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