I’ve been in the real estate business since I was 17, which means it has been 45 years of experiencing various market conditions, including recessions, inflation, 18% mortgage rates, the burst of the housing bubble, and a myriad of other good and bad things. However, I can confidently say that I have never witnessed a real estate market quite like the one we have been experiencing in the past couple of years.
So, what makes the current real estate market so unique?
First and foremost, I’ve pondered this question extensively, and I honestly can’t recall a time in this industry when the supply of homes for sale was not at least 4 to 6 months’ worth. Although there was a brief period in 2015 when the inventory of homes in St. Louis fell below 4 months, it quickly returned to nearly 5 months. From 2016 until early 2020, the inventory fluctuated between approximately 2 and 3 months, and then began a downward trend, hitting a record low of less than a 1-month supply in the latter part of 2021. While the supply has slightly increased since then, it still hovers around 1 month.
Months of Inventory – St Louis 5-County Core – 2013 – 2023
This situation showcases the basic law of economics—supply and demand. The supply of homes for sale in St. Louis is exceptionally low, and even though the number of home buyers in the market has seemingly declined significantly over the past few years, there still isn’t enough supply to meet the demand of the remaining buyers. Consequently, in accordance with the law of supply and demand, prices tend to rise when supply is insufficient to meet demand. While it’s easy to increase widget production to meet demand, it’s not as simple to suddenly add thousands of homes to the market in the St. Louis real estate market. Factors such as a lack of available land for development in high-demand areas, lengthy approval processes for new developments, labor shortages in the trades, difficulty in controlling construction costs, and the significant time required to bring a substantial number of homes to the market contribute to this complexity. As a developer, I can attest that the development process is lengthy enough for the market dynamics to change entirely before the first home hits the market.
So, where did all the houses go in St Louis? Why aren’t there more homes for sale?
For the past several months there have been many reports anticipating the moves of the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates then followed by tons of articles, blog posts and videos analyzing then predicting the impact of the Fed’s decision on the economy. The other popular topic in this area is the “Money Supply”, usually M2 money supply and whether it’s increasing or decreasing as well as the impact on the economy.
Should St Louis homeowners and potential home buyers really care about the Fed Funds rate or M2 money supply?
First, let’s talk about the Fed Funds rate and what it is, what it is intended to do and the affect it can have on the real estate market. The Fed Funds rate is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight to maintain their reserve requirements. This rate is set by the Federal Reserve, and changes to the rate can have a ripple effect throughout the economy, including the mortgage and housing markets. When the Fed lowers the Fed Funds rate, it can stimulate economic growth by making it cheaper for banks to borrow money, which can lead to lower mortgage interest rates. Lower mortgage rates make it more affordable for homebuyers to finance their purchases, which can increase demand for homes and drive up prices. Conversely, when the Fed raises the Fed Funds rate, it can lead to higher mortgage interest rates, which can slow down the housing market and lead to lower demand and prices.
Next, the the M2 money supply. The M2 money supply includes cash, checking accounts, savings accounts, and other liquid assets that can be easily converted into cash. When the M2 money supply increases, it can stimulate economic activity by making more money available for borrowing and spending. This can lead to lower mortgage interest rates as well, as banks have more funds available to lend out. However, if the M2 money supply increases too rapidly, it can lead to inflation, which can cause mortgage interest rates to rise.
So, as you can see, both the Fed Funds rate and M2 money supply can have a significant impact on the cost of a home mortgage as well as home prices so I would say the answer to the question I posed is “yes”. Granted, we don’t all need to become economists or stay up late at night pouring through spreadsheets and date, but to be aware of factors that affect the economy as a whole and as a result, the real estate market we’re in, would be wise.
How can knowledge of the Fed Funds rate and M2 money supply help me as a home seller or buyer?
The short answer is, it gives you a little insight into perhaps where things are headed which may help you make the decision to buy or sell sooner or later. For example, perhaps you are contemplating buying an home but anguishing over the fact the mortgage interest rates are double what they were a year or two ago and you’re thinking maybe you should wait until things settle down. Well, if you see the Fed Funds rate getting increased with talk of more increases while that is no guarantee mortgage interest rates will increase as well, as I explained above, it’s certainly an indicator that is a likelihood. Therefore, you may decide it’s better to make a move now than later.
What’s an easy way to track this stuff?
I have the answer for you. The charts below are two of the many charts and other information available on St Louis Real Estate Search as well as from MORE, REALTORS® . The first chart shows the relationship historically between St Louis home prices and the M2 Money Supply. Generally, they follow the same trend but, when the trend for one changes, like it did with St Louis home prices (the red line on the chart) beginning in the late 90’s through the housing market bubble burst after 2006, something happens to bring them back in line. As you can see, starting a little over 3 years ago the pace at which M2 was growing outpaced St Louis home prices, but St Louis home prices quickly caught up. Now it’s the opposite and it looks like both a making a downward correction.
The bottom chart shows the close relationship between the Fed Funds rate and mortgage interest rates. With little exception, when the Fed Funds rate increases or decreases, mortgage rates follow. For the past year, the Fed Funds rate has increased and the trend is upward so I wouldn’t expect to see falling mortgage interest rates anytime soon.
A little over two weeks ago I wrote my most recent article addressing St Louis home prices titled “Will St Louis Home Prices Decline?” in which my short answer was “yes”, but kind of tongue in cheek and based upon the seasonality of home prices, but my longer answer was more vague. I mentioned that there certainly is a correction coming but pointed out that there are so many variables that will affect prices that it is hard to say to what extent this correction will be. While this is still true, a lot has happened in the short time period since that article that has caused me to become more bearish on the St Louis real estate market to the point where I’m confident St Louis home prices will decline.
What has changed in the last 16 days…
While it doesn’t directly impact the St Louis market, hurricane Ian has wreaked havoc on a lot of Florida and other areas and will no doubt impact the overall housing market and economy and likely in more of a negative way.
Interest rates have risen another 1/2% hitting and staying near 7%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) just announced that mortgage applications dropped over 14% during the last week of September, the biggest one-week drop in 17 months and pushed their index down to the lowest point since 1997.
The percentage of active listings that have reduced the asking price at least once broke the 40% mark.
The 12-month home sales trend for St Louis for the period ending September 30, 2022 fell to the lowest point in over 2-years.
Active listings in St Louis have been for sale a median of 43 days over four times higher than the median time to sell during the past 2 years of 10 days.
Market data pointing to lower St Louis home prices…
The declining sales trend mentioned above. As chart 1 below shows, home sales during September in St Louis were down nearly 19% from last September.
The declining home price trend. Chart 1 also reveals the median price of homes sold during September 2022 was $267,500, only 2.8% from then September 2021 when the median sold price was $260,000 which was a 8.3% increase from September 2020 when the median price was $240,000.
Showings on active listings continues to decline. Chart 2 shows there are almost 10% fewer showings of active listings now then there were in the first week of January (the slowest time of the year). Last year at this time showing activity was over 30% higher than now and in 2020 it was abut 55% higher. Fewer showings mean fewer sales in coming.
The widening gap between home prices and rental rates. Chart 3 shows the home price index (blue line) rising above the rental rates (red line) at a fairly steep rate. Historically, such as the late 1980’s – 2000 shown on the left side of the chart, these two lines track closely with home prices slight below the rental rates line. The last time home prices started increasing more than rents was in the early 2000’s and this continue until the gap widened to the point that something had to give…either home prices had to fall or rents had to increase. In 2008, the bubble burst and home prices fell. While the present gap is not as large as it was during the height of the housing market bubble in 2006-07, we’re headed that way.
CPI and St Louis Home Price Index are hitting bubble levels. Chart 4 shows the rate of change (year over year) in CPI and the St Louis home price index. The rate of change in both has already exceeded what in the past (with the exception of 1979 when it went a little higher) has triggered home prices to fall.
Home price and interest rate increases are killing St Lous home affordability. Table 5 shows that currently, based upon median home prices and interest rates, one year of house payments (principal and interest only) take about 30% of the median household income for St Louis. In 2007, at the peak of the housing bubble, it was only 21% and in 2000, which many economists use as a “normal” or baseline year, it was 20%. So the real cost of a typical St Louis home to a typical St Louis family is about 50% higher now than normal.
Apparently a lot of consumers are concerned about the housing market crashing or at least concerned enough to be online searching for answers. According to Google Trends the search phrase “Will The Housing Market Crash?” has hit it’s 5-year peak in terms of interest level during the last 4-5 months. In addition, according to Google Adwords tools, there are 10,000 – 100,000 searches for month for the phrase “Will The Housing Market Crash?” and 100,000 – 1,000, 000 monthly searches for “housing market crash“.
Will there actually be a housing market crash in St Louis?
I guess first we should define “crash” as the word itself sounds rather harsh. But if we agree that a market crash would be less severe than the housing market bubble burst we witnessed in 2008, then I would say a “crash” is more likely than a bubble burst. However, what may seem like a crash in the St Louis housing market may in fact not be as much of a crash as well as a correction. Given that the St Louis real estate market has been flying high for a few years now and many seller’s have felt like they died and went to heaven and buyer’s just felt like they died from the competition and difficulty in buying a home, a correction is really needed.
How bad will the St Louis housing market correction be?
During the 14 year period prior to the housing bubble bursting in 2008, there were 92,065 building permits issued for new single family homes in the 3 most active home building counties in St Louis. As the table shows below, over half the permits issued during that period were in St Charles County alone, with the other half in the counties of St Louis and Jefferson.
Needless to say, when the housing bubble burst in 2008 and the market collapsed, new home construction came to a screeching halt. However, after about 5 years, the market quickly regained lost ground and for the past several years it seems home builders couldn’t build homes fast enough. We’ve had a low inventory of homes for sale for so long it’s starting to seem normal. But still, over 14 years have passed since the bubble burst and we are still way behind on new home construction. In the 14-year period after the bubble burst, there have been 40.528 building permits issued for new single family homes in the St Louis area counties mentioned above, a decline of nearly 56% from the prior 14-year period.
Yesterday, I wrote an article addressing the high rate of inflation just reported and its impact on the St Louis housing market. In it, I promised to take a deeper look into the effect of the current events related to the economy on St Louis home prices which I will do in this article.
Before I go further, I should mention I’m not an economist nor a fortune teller. I am, however, a real estate broker and data nerd that has spent over 40 years in the St Louis real estate industry. I try my best to use my knowledge and experience to anticipate changes in the market and use this to help our agents and clients use this information to their advantage.
History always repeats itself..
I find the above old adage to be pretty accurate when it comes to the real estate market. Therefore, in trying to get my head around what impact a high inflation rate may have on home prices, I started by going back to prior periods of high inflation rates.
The first chart below shows the rate of inflation, interest rates, and the St Louis home price index. I’ve made some notes on it to show prior inflationary periods and the effect on home prices. The first period, the early 80s was much worse than today as inflation was higher and interest rates were in the stratosphere hitting 18%. The more recent period around 2007-2009 was not as severe and therefore the impact on home prices was not as dramatic as the former either. As you can see on the far right side of the chart, home prices have increased in the past several months at a sharp rate with the change from a year ago being greater than the last inflationary period but not as great as the one from the early ’80s.
The next chart shows the relationship between home prices and rent. When home prices outpace rent, home prices decline, when rent outpaces home prices, prices rise. As the chart shows, these two lines have converged indicating a reasonable balance between home prices and rent.
During the period of 2007 – 2011 home prices fell over 17% during a four year period before finally bottoming out.
Last month, there were foreclosure filings on 19,479 properties in the U.S., according to ATTOM Data’s U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. This represents a decline of 5% from the month before but a 94% increase from a year ago, according to the report.
Let’s put it in perspective…
Data and statistics are funny things. Even when accurately presented they can paint a picture that may sound worse, or better than the real situation behind the data. This is why I consistently suggest that people don’t base opinions of the market, or make decisions, on one piece of data. It takes many pieces of data to really paint the whole picture, just like in this case. The headline that was reported by ATTOM Data (and repeatedly in many publications) is accurate, foreclosures are up 94% from a year ago. But if there are currently 19,479 properties with a foreclosure filing, that means there were just 10,040 filings a year ago. Granted, its bad to have anyone lose their home, but, historically speaking, these foreclosure numbers are low..very low. For example, in April 2010, a couple of years after the housing bubble burst, there were 367,056 foreclosure filings that month. So, last months number of 19,479 is 94% lower than April 2010.
Again, I’m not minimizing the significance of a foreclosure or the effect it has on those affected by it, I’m just trying to paint a more clear picture to show at this time, even though we’ve seen an increase, the numbers are still pretty low.
For the past few years now, we’ve experienced quite the seller’s market in St Louis fueled, in part, by a low supply of homes for sale. As a result, St Louis home prices have increased over the past few years at rates close to double the historic norm. Of late, we’ve heard a lot from people within, and outside of, the real estate industry expressing concern that home prices have gotten too high and even some have made comparisons to 2008 when the housing market saw the bubble burst. Being the data nerd I am, I’ve tried to keep emotion out of it and instead turn to the data to see if there were indications that perhaps St Louis home prices have increased too much and we are in for a correction. Up until now, the data has led me to believe that St Louis home prices were ok and can be sustained. However, based upon current data, I have a little different opinion as I write this.
So what has changed in the data to indicate home prices are too high?
For starters, I haven’t said St Louis home prices are too high yet, I’ve just said that the current data has changed my opinion. Having said that, prices may in fact reached levels that cannot be sustained and may need a downward correction to put them back in line or they may have just peaked and will remain rather flat for a period of time to allow the market to “catch up” with the prices. And, of course, data over the next month or two could change for the positive and show we’re not there yet and home prices can still go higher without a problem. For now, I’m going to say that, based upon the data as well as the normal seasonal adjustments we see this time of year, I’m going to expect to see St Louis home prices to decline somewhat during the winter months like normal, but then perhaps remain relatively flat come spring rather than increase in the spring like normal.
My opinion is based upon several pieces of data that, collectively, are indicating a coming adjustment in home prices to me. I have the charts below that illustrate this point and here’s my recap on them:
Lately, I’ve noticed several articles questioning whether the kind of crazy real estate market we’ve in for a while now is reminiscent of the early 2000’s which lead to a housing bubble that eventually burst in 2008. Granted, even in St Louis where we tend to not see the market extremes one way or the other like the coasts do, one could get the idea that maybe we’re headed that way with buyer’s fighting over new listings and bidding wars that have homes often selling for over the list price. However, in my humble opinion, this market is very different than the 2000 – 2007 market and we are not headed to a crash at this point.
Before I go further…my disclaimer…
I’m not an economist and I didn’t even stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, I’m just a long-time real estate industry data junkie who has ridden the real estate roller coaster for 40+ years and have some thoughts on the current state of the market. While my comments may apply outside of our local market, my focus and commentary are on the St Louis housing market.
There were a total of 7,863 residential building permits issued in the St Louis MSA during 2020 with 5,719 of this being for single-family homes both of which represent the highest number of building permits issued since 2007. As the table below shows, there were 110 building permits issued for 2-unit buildings, 57 permits for 3-4 unit buildings and nearly 2,000 (1,977) issued for buildings with 5 units or more last year.
We’re not even close to the early 2000’s though…
As the chart below does such a great job of illustrating, even though the number of residential building permits in St Louis has increased significantly from hitting bottom in 2011 as a result of the 2008 housing bubble burst, we are still not close to the levels before the crash. For the 13 years proceeding the housing bubble burst in 2008, the median number of residential building permits issued in the St Louis MSA in a year was 10,381 permits, 81% more than our “record” year last year.
The “New” Trend?
On the bottom chart, there is a red line which represents the linear trend line for single-family building permits, which on a positive note, does show the number of permits issued in the last 4 years or so bucking the downward trend.
Is it any wonder the inventory of homes for sale is so low?
Zombies are on the rise in St Louis! I’m referring, of course, to Zombie foreclosures and not the spooky creatures from scary movies. A zombie foreclosure is a property that is in “pre-foreclosure” meaning it is in the foreclosure process but has not been yet foreclosed upon and is vacant or abandoned by the current owner. We saw the levels of zombie foreclosures rise significantly after the housing bubble burst back in 2008 but then fall around 2012 as the market began its recovery. For the 3rd quarter of 2020, according to ATTOM Data Research, 10.8% of the homes in pre-foreclosure were vacant or otherwise known as “zombies foreclosures”. This is a fairly significant increase in the zombie rate from the prior quarter when 7.79% of the pre-foreclosures were vacant. A year ago, during the 3rd quarter of 2010, the zombie foreclosure rate was 7.77%.
St Louis vacant property rate rises during 3rd quarter as well..
As the table below also illustrates, 2.95% of the more than 1,000,000 residential properties in the St Louis MSA were vacant during the 3rd quarter of 2020 which is an increase from 2.88% for the 2nd quarter of 2020 as well as an increase from a year ago when the vacancy rate was 2.86%.
Not only has it become common today for homes to sell as soon as they hit the market but receiving offers from multiple buyers and at prices that equal or even exceed the asking price is common as well. While this is an illustration of Economics 101, the rule and supply and demand, when the demand exceeds the supply (such as in the housing market in many price ranges and areas), prices increase this can also be a reminder of times past when home prices rose quickly for several years, then retreated rather abruptly. The most recent example of this, and arguably the worst during my 40 years in the real estate business, was the housing bubble that burst in 2008 sending home prices into a downward trend that lasted about 3 years.
So, are we headed to another housing bubble?
My focus is primarily on the St Louis housing market so I will focus on that but I will point out what I see with regard home prices, St Louis has a better outlook than at the national level.
Let me begin with this is not a political statement and the purpose of this site is not about politics but about real estate. Having said that, this morning I came across the plans for the housing market that Bernie Sanders is proposing if he is elected President which I had not seen before. Upon reviewing his plan (it is on his official site) I realized that while many of the components of it sound good (like “End homelessness and ensure fair housing for all”) many of his promises in this area sound like things that would negatively impact investors and the housing market as a whole.
The following are the Key Points to the Bernie Sanders housing plan from his website (I have included the complete list):
End the housing crisis by investing $2.5 trillion to build nearly 10 million permanently affordable housing units.
Protect tenants by implementing a national rent control standard, a “just-cause” requirement for evictions, and ensuring the right to counsel in housing disputes.
Make rent affordable by making Section 8 vouchers available to all eligible families without a waitlist and strengthening the Fair Housing Act.
Combat gentrification, exclusionary zoning, segregation, and speculation.
End homelessness and ensure fair housing for all
Revitalize public housing by investing $70 billion to repair, decarbonize, and build new public housing.
Under the “When Bernie is president, he will” section are some of the things he plans to do to accomplish the above goals (this list is rather extensive on his site so I have only included a sampling of the items that appear will negatively impact investors and homeowners):
Enact a national cap on annual rent increases at no more than 3 percent or 1.5 times the Consumer Price Index (whichever is higher) to help prevent the exploitation of tenants at the hands of private landlords.
Allow states and cities to pass even stronger rent control standards.
Implement a “just-cause” requirement for evictions, which would allow a landlord to evict a tenant only for specific violations and prevent landlords from evicting tenants for arbitrary or retaliatory reasons.
Place a 25 percent House Flipping tax on speculators who sell a non-owner-occupied property, if sold for more than it was purchased within 5 years of purchase.
Impose a 2 percent Empty Homes tax on the property value of vacant, owned homes to bring more units into the market and curb the use of housing as speculative investment.
Again, this is not a political piece, but given the strong housing market we have enjoyed over the past several years, which has helped many Americans build equity and recover wealth lost during the housing bubble burst of 2008, I think it’s worth noting proposed plans, by any party or power, that could negatively impact the market. Also, these are just talking points from someone running for office, so whether it’s Bernie Sanders or any other candidate, or even the current President, Donald J. Trump, they can all have ideas but getting them implemented takes cooperation of Congress and that is not always so easy so it doesn’t mean any of their plans ever actually come to fruition.
You are probably saying I’m nuts to be saying that a home in St Louis costs less today than it did 13 years ago, back in 2006, but, note I said the “real cost” of a home. Since nearly all people buying a typical home in St Louis are going to do so with a mortgage, I think to really determine the cost of a home, and certainly, it’s affordability, we have to look deeper than just the price. Therefore, as the table below shows, I analyzed the cost of a home in St Louis during two periods of time, the most recent 5-year period and the 5-year period leading up to and including 2006 (the last year of the boom before the bust). In determining the real cost, I looked at the median price of homes sold but then also the mortgage interest rate at the time and the resulting payment.
As the table illustrates, the current cost of a median-priced home in St Louis, from a mortgage payment perspective, dropped 5.5% from a year ago thanks to lower mortgage interest rates which more than offset the increase in home prices. The impact of interest rates on the true cost of a home is further illustrated by looking that the change in the mortgage payment for a median-priced home in St Louis from 2014 to today which was an increase of 17.8% over the period. However, the median price of homes sold during the same period increased by 23.4%, over 30% more than the payment increased!
The real cost of a St Louis home today is even less than in 2006
Now, to go one step further, if you look at the second table below, which is for the period of July 2001 through July 2006, you will see that, while the median price of homes in St Louis was lower, mortgage interest rates were much higher. In fact, the median mortgage interest rate from 2001 through 2006 was 6.245% while it was just 4.0% from 2014 through 2019. This resulted in the mortgage payment of $1,084.26 on a median-priced home in St Louis in 2006, $76.56 per month more (7.5%) than today’s mortgage payment on a median-priced home in St Louis.
As evidence of just how much the St Louis housing market has improved since the housing bubble burst a little over a decade ago, as well as a testimony as to the strength of our economy, the number of St Lous homeowners thatlost their homes to foreclosure last year dropped to the lowest level in over 12 years.
As the tables below show, during 2018, 6,882 homeowners in the St Louis metro area received a notice of a foreclosure filing from their lender on their property, a decline of 6% from the prior year when 7,323 homeowners received a foreclosing filing notice. The number of foreclosure filings in St Loius during 2018 was down 68.3% from 2010 when the number of foreclosures in St Louis hit a record high with 21,741 homeowners receiving a foreclosure filing notice.
In contrast to reports from around the country of a cooling housing market and even a possible bubble in some markets, the St Louis real estate market continues to hold steady. As our exclusive, STL Market Report for the St Louis 5-County core market below shows, during the past 12-months homes have sold at about the same pace as the prior 12-month period, prices are up a little over 5 percent and the supply, while up, is still at a rather low 3 months.
St Louis 5-County core market home sales and prices
During the housing bubble that peaked around 2006 and then burst in 2008 one of the things that got many homeowners in trouble was using their home’s as ATM’s. They did this by using, in most cases, home-equity loans to take advantage of the equity they had in their homes to give them access to tax-free cash to make improvements on their home, pay for vacations, buy cars, boats, whatever. This was fine until the value of homes began declining which resulted in many of these homeowners becoming “underwater“ meaning they owed more on their homes than they were worth.
Yesterday, I wrote an article about the record amount of equity homeowners in the U.S. have in their homes now, even more than in 2006, and today I read a report from TransUnion in which Joe Mellman, their senior vice president, and mortgage business leader, said “There are ample signs that the home equity lending market is poised for growth. Home prices have surpassed 2005 boom levels and household home equity has grown even faster.” The report goes on to say that HELOC’s (home-equity lines of credit) represented the “greatest number of home equity originations in 2017 at 1.2 million, showing a 2.3% year-over-year growth from 2016”
Hopefully, homeowner’s will remember lessons of the past and be wiser about the use of their equity this time around. Below is a table from TransUnion showing the top five uses of home equity loans.
Homeowner’s equity (the difference between current home value and the total amount of debt against the home) has risen to a record level in the U.S. at $15.189 Trillion as of the 2nd quarter of this year, according to reports from the St Louis Fed Reserve. As the chart below illustrates, this level is even higher than the previous peak in 2006 at the tail-end of the housing bubble when equity was at $13.417 Trillion.
Homeowner’s Equity In Real Estate
(Click on chart for live, interactive chart with current data)
This morning I watched a video from a firm that reports on the real industry and does so from a blunt, “call it as they see it”, perspective (pretty much my style too) in which they say “market correction indicators continue to roll in” and suggest that, to some extent, the party is over. This report looked at the national real estate market as a whole and specifically looked at the west coast so is not necessarily indicative of what is happening in the St Louis real estate market, however, can often be an early indicator.
As a result, I spent my early morning looking closely at the St Louis real estate market in search of market correction indicators. So, did I find indications that the St Louis real estate market is headed for a correction?
Yep. It’s called “spring is over“. :)
At about this time every year, we see a correction, of sorts due to the seasonality of the real estate business. It’s no secret that spring and early summer are always the best time for the real estate market with increased home sales and prices. As that season passes there is always a “correction” in home prices as they adjust downward for the decreased demand.
However, what I am really looking at is the “bigger picture”, is there an overall market correction taking place in St Louis or headed our way?
While it would be unrealistic to think that if a true market correction is going to be experienced by the bulk of the country that it won’t have an impact on the St Louis market, however, at this time there doesn’t appear to be any sort of serious correction imminent in the St Louis market.That’s not to say we won’t see the normal downturn in home sales and prices we expect to see due to seasonality.
Below are some charts and tables that I think are good indicators of the health of the St Louis market as well as good indicators of things to come. I’ll briefly give some comments on each as well as how I have applied the data shown to my opinion I have shared today.
Freddie Mac has been tracking average mortgage rates since 1971 through their Primary Mortgage Market Survey® and yesterday it revealed that, as the chart below shows, the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was at 4.6%, the highest rate in over 7 years. The last time mortgage interest rates were this high was back on May 5, 2011 when the 30-year rate hit 4.71%.
Even with the recent increase, mortgage interest rates are still reasonably low from a historical perspective. As the second chart below illustrates, 20 years ago the rates were around 8 percent. Mortgage interest rates then spent nearly a decade around the 5% – 6% range before beginning the descent after the housing bubble burst in 2008.
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Just over 1 of every three (34%) homebuyers in 2017 were first-time homebuyers according to the With the growing population of millennials reaching an age where many are buying homes, I expect to see the percentage of first-time homebuyers increase over the next couple of years.
Many first-time homebuyers find the home buying process to be a little intimidating which is largely due to just lacking the experience of having done it before and the knowledge that is gained from the experience. However, with a time spent getting educated on the process, the fears can be calmed and the home buying experience can be a great one for a first-time buyer!
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(the summary is below but you can see the complete report by clicking the link above)
Step 1 Ask a real estate professional if current market conditions make now a good time to buy a home?
The real estate market suffered a blow when the housing bubble burst in 2008 but has now recovered and the talk for the past couple of years has been rising home prices and a shortage of homes for sale. So does this make now a bad time to buy? Step 2 Ask yourself these 3 questions to determine if now is the right time for YOU to buy?
Do you want the responsibility? Home-ownership does bring with it the responsibility to care for it and maintain it (there is no longer a landlord to call to take care of things for you); you are responsible for maintaining insurance coverage on the home, paying property taxes, subdivision association fees and, of course, your house payments on time.
Are you financially ready? DON’T BUY if you have not saved enough money to make a reasonable down-payment, pay closing costs, moving costs, etc., and still have some money left in the bank for “reserves”. Also, make sure your income is adequate to support the house payment you are taking on and if there is any doubt then either don’t buy or buy a lower-priced house, you can always move-up later down the road.
Is your income stable? If you get to this point and feel you are OK and can afford to buy a home, step back and look at the source of your income and consider how solid you think it is. Step 3 Educate yourself on the market, the process and your rights.
Even though you will be using professionals in your home purchase and, particularly if you follow the advice in this report, will select good ones, you still should educate yourself about the process to give you a better understanding as you go through it. Plus, by knowing your rights and how the deal should go, you will notice when something is not right or you are not be treated properly.
Don’t buy before checking out the resources below:
St Louis Real Estate Search -St Louis’ BEST website for searching homes for sale. Updated directly from the MLS every 5 minutes!
St Louis Market Data Live, online, information and data on the St Louis real estate market, including home prices, sales and whether an area is a buyers or sellers market.
Step 4 Pick a REALTOR® to work with you.
If you think the timing is right for you to buy a home, then the next step is to select a REALTOR® to work with you to help guide you through the process and avoid the “landmines” that are out there. Many buyers want to go it alone for a while and there are plenty of websites out there where you can search for homes for sale from now to eternity, you will save yourself a lot of time and aggravation by simply utilizing the services of a professional REALTOR® from the outset.
Step 5 Get pre-approved for a home loan
This step is important for several reasons: One, it confirms to you that you do have the financial resources to buy a house in the price range you are interested in and, two, when you provide the pre-approval letter to the seller with your offer it shows you are not only a serious buyer, but that you should be able to get a loan to buy their house. This gives you a leg-up in your negotiations over a buyer that is not as prepared.
(See The COMPLETE Report by Clicking the Link Below)
After the housing bubble burst in 2008, home prices finally hit bottom in the St Louis metro area, as they did in most areas of the U.S., during 2012. Since then, home prices in most areas have not only regained the post-bubble burst losses but have appreciated handsomely as well. For the St Louis MSA, the median price of homes sold has increased 34% from 2012 through today, an annual growth rate of 4.98%. The steady and fairly significant, increase in home prices in St Louis has caused some to ask if it is “too much, too fast?”. In other words, at this rate, are we headed toward another bubble?
I don’t see a bubble…
As the chart below shows, the median home price for the St Louis MSA in 2012 was $128,500 and for 2017 thus far it is $172,000, or 34% more. This works out to an annual growth rate of 4.98% which, historically speaking, is not out of line. In 1963, the median home price in the U.S. was $17,950 and today it is $315,200, which computes an annual growth rate of 5.35%. So, over the 55 year period I reviewed, the growth rate has exceeded the rate we have seen in St Louis since 2012 making the increase not out of the norm.
Additionally, as our STL Market Report for the St Louis MSA below the chart shows, we are in the slowest selling season of the year and the inventory of homes for sale is still low at about 3 1/3 months supply.
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St Louis MSA Home Prices 2012 – 2017 (Chart)
St Louis MSA – STL Market Report – December 2017 (Table)
There is little doubt that lower-income individuals and, subsequently, lower-income neighborhoods, were impacted more negatively by the housing market bubble burst in 2008 than other areas. This resulted in extremely high mortgage delinquency rates, high foreclosure rates, and declining home values. Afterward, citing “loose” lending standards, sub-prime mortgages, etc, the mortgage market tightened the reins on mortgage lending making it more difficult for everyone to get a loan, but particularly, those folks in the lower income brackets.
As time has passed, home loan requirements have eased and it is now easier to obtain a home loan. Some of the requirements that have eased are minimum credit scores, down-payment requirements as well as rules affecting seller paid closing costs, gifts, etc, which has, in particular, helped lower and moderate-income home buyers. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), the government “watch-dog” of all things financial, tracks and reports data related to home mortgages which reveal that, in fact, home mortgage lending has increased to the highest levels in over a decade in low and moderate-income areas. The CFPB charts below reveal:
Home loan volume in low-income areas topped $3.8 Billion in November 2016, the highest level since the CFPB began tracking this data in January 2009. The CFPB forecast, predicts that, once the data is in, a record $4 Billion in home loans will be reported for August 2017.
Home loan volume in moderate-income areas hit $21.7 Billion in October 2016, also the highest level since the CFPB began tracking this data in January 2009. The CFPB forecast, predicts that, once the data is in, a record of $23+ Billion in home loans will be reported for July 2017.
The middle-income areas have fared well also with home-loan volume hitting a record $76.8 Billion in October 2016. Unlike the low and moderate income area forecasts, the CFPB is forecasting a slight cooling in the middle-income areas with home loan volume dropping to $73.5 Billion for June 2017 and then slightly lower in July once the data is in.
High-income areas are trailing the other areas in terms of home loan volume having peaked at $116 Billion over 4-years ago, in January 2013. The CFPB is predicting lending data will show $90.5 Billion in home loans in high-income areas for June 2017.
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It’s good when the value of your home increases, right? Yes, generally, most homeowners, look at their homes as an investment in addition to shelter for their families so they are generally happy to see the value of their investment increase. The flip side of it is, homebuyers, particularly first-time buyers, would, of course, like to see lower prices and better value in the home they buy. The thing that helps balance out these competing interests is inflation, but more specifically, the rate of income growth.
Not to get into an economics lesson here (which I’m not qualified to teach anyway) but if homebuyers incomes increase at about the same rate as home prices (ditto for interest rates) then, more or less, the “affordability” of a home to a buyer remains the same. Problems arise when those things get out of whack, such as in the period from about 2000 through 2007 when home prices were increasing at a much higher rate than incomes were (and interest rates rose too making it even more fun) which eventually led to the housing bubble burst in 2008 and the real estate market crash.
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The housing bubble that led to the housing bubble burst in 2008 started a decline in the value of homes, including those in St Louis, for the following 3 to 4 years. This resulted in a much larger number of homeowners facing financial struggles including late payments, foreclosures, short sales, bankruptcy and the like, than was the historic norm. As a result, while maybe not a new concept but certainly one that had been more obscure in the past, credit repair, became a lucrative and growing business as consumers sought to repair the damage done and position themselves to buy a home.
In St Louis, there are many companies offering credit repair services, with many making some pretty enticing sounding claims with regard to removal of negative items from your credit, improving your credit score in a short time period and so on. While there are reputable companies out there doing a good job for St Louis homebuyers looking to improve their credit no doubt, there are also some that are probably not doing much more for the consumer than they could easily do on their own or, worse yet, perhaps very little at all for the fee paid.
How do you find a good credit repair company in St Louis?
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There are several ways to look at home prices and home affordability as well as to argue the merits of homeownership versus renting, however, one my favorite metrics to consider along these lines is the relationship between home prices and rental rates. Most home buyers, that are seeking a home to live in, never consider what the home they are considering purchasing would rent for, since that is not their intended use. However, there is a relationship between home values the potential rental income in that there is a tipping point reached when the cost of owning a home exceeds the cost of renting a comparable home in the same neighborhood by too much, there becomes an incentive to rent rather than buy. Along the same lines, if rental rates get so high that, for about the same money, or even less, one could buy the home they are renting, there exists a strong incentive to buy a home.
With this in mind, when you look at the chart below from the St Louis Federal Reserve, which shows the St Louis home price index, the blue line, and the Consumer Price Index for Rent, the red line, you can see there is a pretty significant gap between the two. The chart goes back to 1975 and, as you can see, historically the home price index and CPI for rents have increase at relatively similar rates, with home prices lagging slightly behind from about 1980 through around 2004 but, even then, there was a pretty similar trend. As the housing bubble in 2006 approached, you can see the home price trend shot upward and past rents only to fall sharply around 2008 after the housing bubble burst. Since hitting bottom around late 2011, home prices have been trending upward, but, as illustrated, there is a much larger gap between home prices and rents then is the historic norm which is a good thing with regard to home prices. Based upon what I see on the chart (you can click on the chart to be taken to our live, current version which is interactive) I would expect the gap between rents and home prices to close at some point in the near future. This can be accomplished in one of two ways: home prices can rise at a greater rate than rents rise, or rents can fall or remain flat, or, of course, some combination of the two. In either event I think this is good data to support sustained home prices and also shows that buying a home could well be a better investment than renting.
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The median price per square foot of homes sold in St Louis County have increased 3.5% over the past 10 years, from $116 per foot in 2007 to $120 per foot currently. As the chart below illustrates, home prices dipped to a low of $90 per foot in 2011, a result of the housing bubble burst in 2008. During the same period, the price per foot of homes sold in St Charles County increased 5.1% from $117 per foot in 2007 to $123 per foot currently. Like St Louis County, St Charles County saw home prices bottom out in 2011, hitting a low of $95 per foot.
Condo prices have followed suit with St Charles County faring better than St Louis County during the past 10 years. The median price per square foot of condominiums sold in St Louis County declined 15% over the past 10 years from $123 per foot in 2007 to $105 per foot currently. St Charles County condo prices declined 7.9% during the same period, falling from $114 per foot in 2007 to $105 per foot currently. The bottom for condo prices, in both St Charles County and St Louis County, lagged slightly behind the bottom for home prices, not hitting bottom until 2012 at which time prices were $85 and $89 per foot respectively.
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Yesterday, I did a post on the 10 St Louis neighborhoods that made it in the Niche list of “100 Best Places to Live In America”. This prompted a question as to how much better price appreciation have home owners seen in these neighborhoods as a result of the features they have that make them the “best places to live” verses the normal appreciation for the area? Since it just so happens that all ten of the neighborhoods that made the list are in St Louis county, I decided to pull a chart to compare the median price per foot (the most accurate way to compare home prices) of homes sold in the top ten neighborhoods versus St Louis Countyas a whole. As the chart below illustrates, here is what I found when I looked at home prices from January 1, 2012 (around the bottom of the market after the housing bubble burst in 2008) through the end of 2016:
St Louis County saw home prices increase 29.5% during this period, from $95/foot in 2012 to $123/foot in 2016.
The 10 neighborhoods included in the Best Places To Live list saw home prices increase 23.5% from $132/foot in 2012 to $163/foot in 2016
Hmm…so the best neighborhoods saw home prices increase at a lower rate than that county they are located in? What does this mean? I don’t know….could be the fact the median price in the better neighborhoods is roughly 50% higher to begin with so the higher priced homes may appreciate slower….or, it could be that part of what makes these neighborhoods the “best” is they offer good value so the fact that home price appreciation has been lower could be what put them on the list. Whatever the reason, it’s just a good ice breaker for a Saturday morning. :)
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It seems almost crazy to even throw out the idea of an adjustment in St Louis home prices or, perhaps even, any sort of slow down in the rate of home price appreciation given that the inventory of homes for sale is so low in so many parts of the St Louis area, however, maybe it’s something to look at. For anyone that has been reading what I have written here over the past 8+ years, you will hopefully know that I am not a “gloom and doom” guy at at all, but I do share my honest outlook on the market. Having said that, I do feel home prices are something worth taking a look at.
What is causing the concern about home prices?
For starters, new housing affordability information was just released yesterday by ATTOM Data Solutions which shows home affordability in the St Louis area has eroded somewhat. The table below, based upon the ATTOM data, shows what percentage of the average wages for the area are needed to make monthly house payments on a median-priced home with a 30-year fixed rate mortgage and a minimal downpayment of 3%. It also shows how much, on a year over year basis, income has risen in that county versus how much home prices have increased. As the table shows, it takes a pretty big chunk of pay to pay for the typical median priced home today and, in most cases, home prices are rising at higher rates than income is rising. Even if the year over year income/home price increase looks ok, home prices have been on the rise here for several years so if we look at a 5 year period home price growth is outpacing income growth.
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New home sales in St Louis declined in 2016 after increasing during the prior two years, for both the entire St Louis MSA as a whole as well as the St Louis 5-County Core Market. As the 10-year charts below show, new home sales, fell steadily from 2007 for about the next 4 years as a result of the housing bubble burst and failing real estate market. Since hitting rock bottom around 2011, new home sales have increased slightly but have not done so with any great momentum.
New home sales in St Louis 5 County Core Market are still just a fraction of what they were…
In 2007, there were 1,374 new home sales reported in the MLS in the St Louis core market, and last year there were 603 new homes sold, a decline of 56% from 2007. Last years new home sales were down over 11 percent from the year below and are lower than the prior 4 years. In fact, in the past 10 years, only 2011 saw fewer new homes sold with just 568 that year.
The median price of new homes sold, as the charts illustrate, dropped from $240,750 during 2007 until hitting bottom in 2010 at $211,144, and then after falling off the 2011 level in 2012, has increased every year since and hit $273,000 last year. This represents an increase of 29% in the median price of new homes sold in the St Louis core market since 2010.
New home sales increased last year in St Louis County but fell in St Charles and Jefferson Counties…
As the individual county charts below show, St Louis county saw the number of new homes sold increase last year from the year before, increasing 34% from 127 in 2015 to 184 new homes sold in 2016. The median price declined during this period however, from $520,000 during 2015 to $467,990 in 2016.
St Charles County saw new home sales decline nearly 23% (22.9) from 363 in 2015 to 280 during 2016 while prices increased from $221,705 to $228,424. Jefferson County followed suit with new home sales falling 22.5% from 129 during 2015 to 100 in 2016 while prices increased 14.6% during the same period from $205,000 in 2015 to $234,917 in 2016. (We work hard on this and sure would appreciate a “Like”)[iframe http://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FStLouisRealEstateNews&send=false&layout=standard&width=50&show_faces=false&font&colorscheme=light&action=like&height=35&appId=537283152977556 100 35 ]
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Apparently a lot of consumers are concerned about the housing market crashing or at least concerned enough to be online searching for answers. According to Google Trends the search phrase “Will The Housing Market Crash?” has hit it’s 5-year peak in terms of interest level during the last 4-5 months. In addition, according to Google Adwords tools, there are 10,000 – 100,000 searches for month for the phrase “Will The Housing Market Crash?” and 100,000 – 1,000, 000 monthly searches for “housing market crash“.
