By Dennis Norman, on June 2nd, 2023 I’ve been in the real estate business since I was 17, which means it has been 45 years of experiencing various market conditions, including recessions, inflation, 18% mortgage rates, the burst of the housing bubble, and a myriad of other good and bad things. However, I can confidently say that I have never witnessed a real estate market quite like the one we have been experiencing in the past couple of years.
So, what makes the current real estate market so unique? First and foremost, I’ve pondered this question extensively, and I honestly can’t recall a time in this industry Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on March 25th, 2023 For the past several months there have been many reports anticipating the moves of the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates then followed by tons of articles, blog posts and videos analyzing then predicting the impact of the Fed’s decision on the economy. The other popular topic in this area is the “Money Supply”, usually M2 money supply and whether it’s increasing or decreasing as well as the impact on the economy.
Should St Louis homeowners and potential home buyers really care about the Fed Funds rate or M2 money supply?
First, let’s talk about the Fed Funds rate and what Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 6th, 2022 A little over two weeks ago I wrote my most recent article addressing St Louis home prices titled “Will St Louis Home Prices Decline?” in which my short answer was “yes”, but kind of tongue in cheek and based upon the seasonality of home prices, but my longer answer was more vague. I mentioned that there certainly is a correction coming but pointed out that there are so many variables that will affect prices that it is hard to say to what extent this correction will be. While this is still true, a lot has happened in the short time Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on August 12th, 2022 Apparently a lot of consumers are concerned about the housing market crashing or at least concerned enough to be online searching for answers. According to Google Trends the search phrase “Will The Housing Market Crash?” has hit it’s 5-year peak in terms of interest level during the last 4-5 months. In addition, according to Google Adwords tools, there are 10,000 – 100,000 searches for month for the phrase “Will The Housing Market Crash?” and 100,000 – 1,000, 000 monthly searches for “housing market crash“.
Will there actually be a housing market crash in St Louis?
I guess first we should Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on August 4th, 2022 During the 14 year period prior to the housing bubble bursting in 2008, there were 92,065 building permits issued for new single family homes in the 3 most active home building counties in St Louis. As the table shows below, over half the permits issued during that period were in St Charles County alone, with the other half in the counties of St Louis and Jefferson.
Needless to say, when the housing bubble burst in 2008 and the market collapsed, new home construction came to a screeching halt. However, after about 5 years, the market quickly regained lost ground and Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 15th, 2022 Yesterday, I wrote an article addressing the high rate of inflation just reported and its impact on the St Louis housing market. In it, I promised to take a deeper look into the effect of the current events related to the economy on St Louis home prices which I will do in this article.
Before I go further, I should mention I’m not an economist nor a fortune teller. I am, however, a real estate broker and data nerd that has spent over 40 years in the St Louis real estate industry. I try my best to use my knowledge Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on December 17th, 2021 Last month, there were foreclosure filings on 19,479 properties in the U.S., according to ATTOM Data’s U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. This represents a decline of 5% from the month before but a 94% increase from a year ago, according to the report.
Let’s put it in perspective…
Data and statistics are funny things. Even when accurately presented they can paint a picture that may sound worse, or better than the real situation behind the data. This is why I consistently suggest that people don’t base opinions of the market, or make decisions, on one piece of data. It takes many Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 31st, 2021 For the past few years now, we’ve experienced quite the seller’s market in St Louis fueled, in part, by a low supply of homes for sale. As a result, St Louis home prices have increased over the past few years at rates close to double the historic norm. Of late, we’ve heard a lot from people within, and outside of, the real estate industry expressing concern that home prices have gotten too high and even some have made comparisons to 2008 when the housing market saw the bubble burst. Being the data nerd I am, I’ve tried to keep emotion Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 5th, 2021 Lately, I’ve noticed several articles questioning whether the kind of crazy real estate market we’ve in for a while now is reminiscent of the early 2000’s which lead to a housing bubble that eventually burst in 2008. Granted, even in St Louis where we tend to not see the market extremes one way or the other like the coasts do, one could get the idea that maybe we’re headed that way with buyer’s fighting over new listings and bidding wars that have homes often selling for over the list price. However, in my humble opinion, this market is very different Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 3rd, 2021 There were a total of 7,863 residential building permits issued in the St Louis MSA during 2020 with 5,719 of this being for single-family homes both of which represent the highest number of building permits issued since 2007. As the table below shows, there were 110 building permits issued for 2-unit buildings, 57 permits for 3-4 unit buildings and nearly 2,000 (1,977) issued for buildings with 5 units or more last year.
We’re not even close to the early 2000’s though…
As the chart below does such a great job of illustrating, even though the number of residential building permits Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on August 28th, 2020 Zombies are on the rise in St Louis! I’m referring, of course, to Zombie foreclosures and not the spooky creatures from scary movies. A zombie foreclosure is a property that is in “pre-foreclosure” meaning it is in the foreclosure process but has not been yet foreclosed upon and is vacant or abandoned by the current owner. We saw the levels of zombie foreclosures rise significantly after the housing bubble burst back in 2008 but then fall around 2012 as the market began its recovery. For the 3rd quarter of 2020, according to ATTOM Data Research, 10.8% of the homes in Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on July 2nd, 2020 Not only has it become common today for homes to sell as soon as they hit the market but receiving offers from multiple buyers and at prices that equal or even exceed the asking price is common as well. While this is an illustration of Economics 101, the rule and supply and demand, when the demand exceeds the supply (such as in the housing market in many price ranges and areas), prices increase this can also be a reminder of times past when home prices rose quickly for several years, then retreated rather abruptly. The most recent example of Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on February 23rd, 2020 Let me begin with this is not a political statement and the purpose of this site is not about politics but about real estate. Having said that, this morning I came across the plans for the housing market that Bernie Sanders is proposing if he is elected President which I had not seen before. Upon reviewing his plan (it is on his official site) I realized that while many of the components of it sound good (like “End homelessness and ensure fair housing for all”) many of his promises in this area sound like things that would negatively impact investors Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on August 28th, 2019 You are probably saying I’m nuts to be saying that a home in St Louis costs less today than it did 13 years ago, back in 2006, but, note I said the “real cost” of a home. Since nearly all people buying a typical home in St Louis are going to do so with a mortgage, I think to really determine the cost of a home, and certainly, it’s affordability, we have to look deeper than just the price. Therefore, as the table below shows, I analyzed the cost of a home in St Louis during two periods of time, Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on January 18th, 2019 As evidence of just how much the St Louis housing market has improved since the housing bubble burst a little over a decade ago, as well as a testimony as to the strength of our economy, the number of St Lous homeowners that lost their homes to foreclosure last year dropped to the lowest level in over 12 years.
As the tables below show, during 2018, 6,882 homeowners in the St Louis metro area received a notice of a foreclosure filing from their lender on their property, a decline of 6% from the prior year when 7,323 homeowners received a Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 23rd, 2018 In contrast to reports from around the country of a cooling housing market and even a possible bubble in some markets, the St Louis real estate market continues to hold steady. As our exclusive, STL Market Report for the St Louis 5-County core market below shows, during the past 12-months homes have sold at about the same pace as the prior 12-month period, prices are up a little over 5 percent and the supply, while up, is still at a rather low 3 months.
St Louis 5-County core market home sales and prices
(click on table for live Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 18th, 2018 During the housing bubble that peaked around 2006 and then burst in 2008 one of the things that got many homeowners in trouble was using their home’s as ATM’s. They did this by using, in most cases, home-equity loans to take advantage of the equity they had in their homes to give them access to tax-free cash to make improvements on their home, pay for vacations, buy cars, boats, whatever. This was fine until the value of homes began declining which resulted in many of these homeowners becoming “underwater“ meaning they owed more on their homes than they were worth.
Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on October 17th, 2018 Homeowner’s equity (the difference between current home value and the total amount of debt against the home) has risen to a record level in the U.S. at $15.189 Trillion as of the 2nd quarter of this year, according to reports from the St Louis Fed Reserve. As the chart below illustrates, this level is even higher than the previous peak in 2006 at the tail-end of the housing bubble when equity was at $13.417 Trillion.
Homeowner’s Equity In Real Estate
(Click on chart for live, interactive chart with current data)
Search St Louis Homes For Sale Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on July 31st, 2018 This morning I watched a video from a firm that reports on the real industry and does so from a blunt, “call it as they see it”, perspective (pretty much my style too) in which they say “market correction indicators continue to roll in” and suggest that, to some extent, the party is over. This report looked at the national real estate market as a whole and specifically looked at the west coast so is not necessarily indicative of what is happening in the St Louis real estate market, however, can often be an early indicator.
As a result, I Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 25th, 2018 Freddie Mac has been tracking average mortgage rates since 1971 through their Primary Mortgage Market Survey® and yesterday it revealed that, as the chart below shows, the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was at 4.6%, the highest rate in over 7 years. The last time mortgage interest rates were this high was back on May 5, 2011 when the 30-year rate hit 4.71%.
Even with the recent increase, mortgage interest rates are still reasonably low from a historical perspective. As the second chart below illustrates, 20 years ago the rates were around 8 percent. Mortgage interest rates Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on May 10th, 2018 Just over 1 of every three (34%) homebuyers in 2017 were first-time homebuyers according to the With the growing population of millennials reaching an age where many are buying homes, I expect to see the percentage of first-time homebuyers increase over the next couple of years.
Many first-time homebuyers find the home buying process to be a little intimidating which is largely due to just lacking the experience of having done it before and the knowledge that is gained from the experience. However, with a time spent getting educated on the process, the fears can be calmed and the home Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on December 3rd, 2017 After the housing bubble burst in 2008, home prices finally hit bottom in the St Louis metro area, as they did in most areas of the U.S., during 2012. Since then, home prices in most areas have not only regained the post-bubble burst losses but have appreciated handsomely as well. For the St Louis MSA, the median price of homes sold has increased 34% from 2012 through today, an annual growth rate of 4.98%. The steady and fairly significant, increase in home prices in St Louis has caused some to ask if it is “too much, too fast?”. In other Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on November 3rd, 2017 There is little doubt that lower-income individuals and, subsequently, lower-income neighborhoods, were impacted more negatively by the housing market bubble burst in 2008 than other areas. This resulted in extremely high mortgage delinquency rates, high foreclosure rates, and declining home values. Afterward, citing “loose” lending standards, sub-prime mortgages, etc, the mortgage market tightened the reins on mortgage lending making it more difficult for everyone to get a loan, but particularly, those folks in the lower income brackets.
As time has passed, home loan requirements have eased and it is now easier to obtain a home loan. Some of the requirements Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on July 4th, 2017 It’s good when the value of your home increases, right? Yes, generally, most homeowners, look at their homes as an investment in addition to shelter for their families so they are generally happy to see the value of their investment increase. The flip side of it is, homebuyers, particularly first-time buyers, would, of course, like to see lower prices and better value in the home they buy. The thing that helps balance out these competing interests is inflation, but more specifically, the rate of income growth. Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on June 29th, 2017 The housing bubble that led to the housing bubble burst in 2008 started a decline in the value of homes, including those in St Louis, for the following 3 to 4 years. This resulted in much larger number of homeowners facing financial struggles including late payments, foreclosures, short sales, bankruptcy and the like, than was the historic norm. As a result, while maybe not a new concept but certainly one that had been more obscure in the past, credit repair, became a lucrative and growing business as consumers sought to repair the damage done and position themselves to buy a home. Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on June 15th, 2017 There are several ways to look at home prices and home affordability as well as to argue the merits of homeownership versus renting, however, one my favorite metrics to consider along these lines is the relationship between home prices and rental rates. Most home buyers, that are seeking a home to live in, never consider what the home they are considering purchasing would rent for, since that is not their intended use. Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 30th, 2017 The median price per square foot of homes sold in St Louis County have increased 3.5% over the past 10 years, from $116 per foot in 2007 to $120 per foot currently. As the chart below illustrates, home prices dipped to a low of $90 per foot in 2011, a result of the housing bubble burst in 2008. During the same period, the price per foot of homes sold in St Charles County increased 5.1% from $117 per foot in 2007 to $123 per foot currently. Like St Louis County, St Charles County saw home prices bottom out in 2011, hitting a low of $95 per foot. Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 22nd, 2017 Yesterday, I did a post on the 10 St Louis neighborhoods that made it in the Niche list of “100 Best Places to Live In America”. This prompted a question as to how much better price appreciation have home owners seen in these neighborhoods as a result of the features they have that make them the “best places to live” verses the normal appreciation for the area? Since it just so happens that all ten of the neighborhoods that made the list are in St Louis county, I decided to pull a chart to compare the median price per foot (the most accurate way to compare home prices) of homes sold in the top ten neighborhoods versus St Louis County as a whole. As the chart below illustrates, here is what I found when I looked at home prices from January 1, 2012 (around the bottom of the market after the housing bubble burst in 2008) through the end of 2016: Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on March 31st, 2017 It seems almost crazy to even throw out the idea of an adjustment in St Louis home prices or, perhaps even, any sort of slow down in the rate of home price appreciation given that the inventory of homes for sale is so low in so many parts of the St Louis area, however, maybe it’s something to look at. Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on March 30th, 2017 New home sales in St Louis declined in 2016 after increasing during the prior two years, for both the entire St Louis MSA as a whole as well as the St Louis 5-County Core Market. Continue Reading →
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