Inflation - St Louis Real Estate News

Mortgage Rates Aren’t Dropping—Here’s a Reason Most Buyers Aren’t Seeing

By Karen Moeller, on April 10th, 2026

What’s happening overseas is quietly influencing mortgage rates here at home—and most buyers don’t realize it

Buyers across the St. Louis market have been watching mortgage rates closely, waiting for signs of relief. Many expected those signs to show up by now. They haven’t.

Part of the reason is playing out far from St. Louis, and most buyers never see it. Mortgage rates are closely tied to the bond market, particularly long-term Treasury yields and mortgage-backed securities, but not always in the way people expect. In simple terms, when investors demand higher returns to lend money, borrowing becomes Continue Reading →

St. Louis Homebuyers and Sellers: Inflation Concerns Outweigh Housing Costs

By Dennis Norman, on September 4th, 2024

As housing costs rise in St. Louis, many are worried about the price of owning or renting a home. However, a recent Gallup poll reveals that 41% of Americans now rank inflation and the high cost of living as their top financial concern, far outpacing housing costs, which are the main issue for 14%. A Gallup spokesperson noted, “For the third year in a row, the percentage of Americans naming inflation or the high cost of living as the most important financial problem facing their family has reached a new high.”

Despite these concerns, the St. Louis metro area remains Continue Reading →

Refinance Activity Surges Despite Rising Mortgage Rates – Purchase Applications Fall

By Dennis Norman, on April 11th, 2024

Last week, the interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages climbed past the 7 percent mark. Despite this increase, as the chart below illustrates, there was a significant 10 percent increase in refinancing applications. This is in sharp contrast to a 5 percent decline in purchase applications. The growth in the refinancing segment is notable, representing 33.3 percent of the total application volume, up from 30.3 percent the previous week. This surge in refinancing interest is particularly intriguing, given the highest reported 30-year mortgage rates in over a month, at 7.01 percent.

Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist, Continue Reading →

St. Louis 2024 Housing Market: First Quarter Update

By Dennis Norman, on March 29th, 2024

As we close the first quarter of 2024, it’s an opportune moment to revisit the forecasts I made at the end of last year regarding the St. Louis real estate market. With the data from January through March now available, we can assess the accuracy of the initial predictions and adjust our outlook for the remainder of the year.

Scorecard on December Predictions:

2024 Home Sales Forecast: I projected a slight decrease in the annual sales volume to about 22,400 homes. The data from the first quarter shows a varied trend with the 12-month home sales at the end of Continue Reading →

St. Louis 2024 Housing Forecast: What to Expect in Home Sales and Prices

By Dennis Norman, on December 31st, 2023

As 2024 approaches, I conducted my customary in-depth analysis of historical St. Louis real estate market data to get my projection for St. Louis home sales and prices. Home sales in the five-county St. Louis core market appear to be gradually declining, based on statistics and trends from the previous ten years, as seen in the chart below

2024 St Louis Home Sales…

The data for the 12-month period ending December 31, 2023, will be available in a few days. I anticipate that home sales will be roughly 22,600 for the year, but there will be a slight decline by Continue Reading →

Analyzing Jerome Powell’s Latest Press Conference: Implications for Mortgage Rates and the St. Louis Real Estate Market

By Dennis Norman, on December 14th, 2023

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference yesterday, along with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, provide crucial insights into the Fed’s economic outlook and monetary policy. These insights are pivotal for understanding the trajectory of mortgage rates and the St. Louis real estate market.

Powell’s Press Conference Highlights

Economic Activity and Rate Adjustments: Powell noted, “We have raised our policy interest rate by 5-1/4 percentage points… Our actions have moved our policy rate well into restrictive territory.” Housing Sector Observations: He remarked, “After picking up somewhat over the summer, activity in the housing sector has flattened out… largely Continue Reading →

Mortgage Rates Take a Slight Dip Amidst Steady Federal Reserve Rates

By Dennis Norman, on November 3rd, 2023

In the ever-evolving landscape of the housing market, prospective homeowners and investors alike keep a close eye on mortgage interest rates. Today, there was a modest decrease in the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage interest rate, now hovering between 7.5% and 7.6%. This shift comes in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to maintain the Overnight Federal Funds Rate at a range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

This current rate represents a slight relief from the recent peak in , yet it remains a figure that echoes the rates of over two decades ago. To put this into perspective, the last Continue Reading →

Are Homebuyers Today Grossly Overpaying for Homes and Making Decisions They’ll Regret?

By Dennis Norman, on June 2nd, 2023

I’ve been in the real estate business since I was 17, which means it has been 45 years of experiencing various market conditions, including recessions, inflation, 18% mortgage rates, the burst of the housing bubble, and a myriad of other good and bad things. However, I can confidently say that I have never witnessed a real estate market quite like the one we have been experiencing in the past couple of years.

So, what makes the current real estate market so unique? First and foremost, I’ve pondered this question extensively, and I honestly can’t recall a time in this industry Continue Reading →

When will the St Louis real estate market crash?

By Dennis Norman, on April 27th, 2023

What strange and confusing times we live in! Some seemingly credible predictions made by qualified experts suggest that our banking system could collapse, our currency may become worthless, and our country may face a significant downturn. Meanwhile, others claim that there is no cause for alarm. Here in St. Louis, the real estate market continues to thrive as if everything is great in our economy, despite the fact that interest rates have doubled in the past year. I have been in this business for 43 years, and although I have seen many ups and downs in the market, I have Continue Reading →

Do the Fed Funds rate and M2 money supply really matter to the St Louis real estate market?

By Dennis Norman, on March 25th, 2023

For the past several months there have been many reports anticipating the moves of the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates then followed by tons of articles, blog posts and videos analyzing then predicting the impact of the Fed’s decision on the economy. The other popular topic in this area is the “Money Supply”, usually M2 money supply and whether it’s increasing or decreasing as well as the impact on the economy.

Should St Louis homeowners and potential home buyers really care about the Fed Funds rate or M2 money supply?

First, let’s talk about the Fed Funds rate and what Continue Reading →

Forty-One Percent of Americans Think The Housing Market Will Crash Next Year

By Dennis Norman, on December 1st, 2022

According to results just released by Lending Tree from a survey they conducted in October, 41% of American’s surveyed expect the housing market to crash next year. As the table below, which shows the results by generation, the Millennials are the most pessimistic about the market with 44% of the millennials surveyed believing the housing market is headed to a crash. The most optimistic generation? Baby boomers, with only 35% of the generation I belong to believing we are headed to a crash.

Inflation is the leading culprit…

Of those surveyed that believe the housing market is headed for a Continue Reading →

St Louis Foreclosure Filings During Third Quarter Increase 45 Percent From A Year Ago

By Dennis Norman, on October 14th, 2022

During the third quarter of this year, there were 907 properties with foreclosure filings in the St Louis MSA, according to ATTOM Data’s U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. This represents an increase of 44.43% in St Louis foreclosures from the same quarter a year ago but is a decline of 16% from the second quarter of this year, according to the report.

As the table below shows, with the exception of Bond County in Illinois, all 15 counties reported had an increase in foreclosure activity during the 3rd quarter over last year, and all at least a double-digit increase. Lincoln County, Continue Reading →

The Coming Recession and Its Potential Affect on St Louis Home Prices

By Dennis Norman, on July 7th, 2022

Ever heard the expression “It’s not if, but when..”? That is something that I’ve heard for a while now about a recession. With everything that has happened to our economy including rising interest rates, rising inflation, the government printing more and more currency and running up greater debt, it seemed inevitable we would see a recession. To officially be in a recession, the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) has to fall for two successive quarters. For the first quarter of this year, GDP declined at an annual rate of 1.6%. The second quarter GDP numbers won’t be released until later this Continue Reading →

Showings Of St Louis Listings Fall To Levels Below January

By Dennis Norman, on July 6th, 2022

It’s no secret that the real estate market slows down in the winter and typically nearly screeches to a halt from shortly before Christmas to shortly after New Years. Therefore, when tracking showing activity in the St Louis area, the first week of January of each year is used as the base, or “0” value and then each rolling 7-day period afterward is compared to that first week.

As the chart below shows, in 2020 and 2021 all weekly averages of showing activity were above the baseline of January until getting close to Thanksgiving, with the one exception being late Continue Reading →

Mortgage Rates Hit Highest Level In Over 13 Years

By Dennis Norman, on June 14th, 2022

The bond market had one of the worst days in history yesterday resulting in mortgage interest rates on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage hitting 6.0% and above. This is the highest rates have been since November 20, 2008 when the mortgage interest rates were 6.04%, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey®.

Is there a silver-lining to the higher interest rates?

Given that the reason for the higher interest rates has to do with our high inflation rates and declining economic conditions, it’s hard to find much positive to say about what is happening. Having said that, the one Continue Reading →

St Louis Home Values Declined In Past 12-Months After Inflation

By Dennis Norman, on June 10th, 2022

With the bidding wars we’ve seen on listings resulting in sold prices that exceed the asking price in St Louis over the past couple of years, it’s hard to imagine that home values could be lower today than a year ago. Now, before you call me crazy, I’m not saying that St Louis homes are SELLING for LESS now than a year ago. As our STL Market Chart below shows, the median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-county core market was $254,950 in May 2021 and $270,000 last month, for an increase in sales price of 5.9%. Continue Reading →

New Sales Of Listings Continue To Outpace New Listings

By Dennis Norman, on April 19th, 2022

Even with the high rate of inflation, rising interest rates and general unrest in the economy, during the past two weeks there were more new contracts written on listings than there were new listings. According to the STL Real Estate Trends Report, exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®, during the last two weeks there were 1,496 new contracts accepted on listings in the St Louis 5-County core market while there were 1,432 new listings during the same period. While there were only 4.5% more sales than listings, given the fact we are already in a low-inventory market, this is fairly significant. Continue Reading →

Inflation Rate Increases to 8.5 Percent in March…What will the effect be on home prices?

By Dennis Norman, on April 14th, 2022

This week it was announced that the U.S. inflation rate in March had increased to a staggering 8.5% the highest rate in over 40 years as illustrated by the chart below. The last time the inflation rate was higher than this was in December 1981 when it hit 8.9%. The “inflation rate” that I’m referring to, and is the most commonly reported, is based upon the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average. One of the categories included in the CPI-U is “shelter”. The report shows the shelter inflation rate at 5% which, on the Continue Reading →

Interest Rates Hit Highest Level in Over 2-Years

By Dennis Norman, on February 12th, 2022

Mortgage interest rates were at 3.69% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan as of this past Thursday, February 10, 2022., according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey®. As the chart below illustrates, mortgage interest rates hit a low of 2.77% in August of 2021 and have pretty much been trending upward since.

Within the last few days, there have been a lot of reports in the media projecting mortgage interest rates to go higher this year. A lot of it is based on the current inflation rates which are not good so if the economy and rate of inflation improve, Continue Reading →

Inflation Has Largest One-Year Increase In Over 39 Years – Will Home Prices Suffer?

By Dennis Norman, on December 11th, 2021

As you’ve probably heard by now, the most recent inflation news was not good. As the chart below illustrates, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all products in the U.S. (city average) for November 2021 was 303.4, an increase of 6.88% from a year ago when it was 284.1. This is the highest 12-month increase in inflation we have seen in over 39 years, since June 1982.

What effect will this record-setting increase in inflation have on home prices?

The second chart below depicts the percentage change in the inflation rate from a year ago (the blue line) as well Continue Reading →

Mortgage Rates Have Increased Significantly This Year

By Dennis Norman, on November 24th, 2021

As the charts below illustrate, at the beginning of this year, mortgage interest rates for a 30-year conforming conventional loan were at 2.771%, FHA loans were at 2.703%, and VA loans were at 2.372%. As of yesterday, those rates have increased to 3.357%, 3.468%, and 3.101% respectively.

While conforming 30-year conventional loans have seen an increase of 21% in rates (from 2.771% to 3.357%), FHA loans have seen an increase of 28% (from 2.703% to 3.468%) and VA loans have seen an increase of 30% (from 2.372% to 3.101%).

What does this mean in terms of the cost of a Continue Reading →

YTD St Louis Home Sales Through October Up Over 5% From Last Year

By Dennis Norman, on November 14th, 2021

In spite of the challenges of a low-inventory market as well as the threat of inflationary pressure on the economy, St Louis home sales still remain strong. As the infographic below shows (exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®) year-to-date home sales through October of this year are outpacing last year by over 5% and the prior 3 years as well by an even larger margin!

Search St Louis Homes For Sale Search St Louis Upcoming OPEN HOUSES

Search St Louis Homes For Sale Search St Louis Upcoming OPEN HOUSES Continue Reading →

Strong Economy and Low Inflation Prompt Fed Reserve To Lower Interest Rates

By Dennis Norman, on August 1st, 2019

Yesterday afternoon, the Federal Reserve released a statement that was quite a vote of confidence for how the economy is doing. The Fed Reserve’s statement included “…the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low.” and went on to say “Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low;”.

As a result of the positive economic conditions, the Federal Open Market Committee announced it would lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 Continue Reading →

City of St Louis Has Best Home Affordability In St Louis Area

By Dennis Norman, on July 4th, 2017

It’s good when the value of your home increases, right? Yes, generally, most homeowners, look at their homes as an investment in addition to shelter for their families so they are generally happy to see the value of their investment increase. The flip side of it is, homebuyers, particularly first-time buyers, would, of course, like to see lower prices and better value in the home they buy. The thing that helps balance out these competing interests is inflation, but more specifically, the rate of income growth. Continue Reading →

Home Affordability In St Louis Declining With Increasing Home Prices – Will Home Prices Suffer?

By Dennis Norman, on March 31st, 2017

It seems almost crazy to even throw out the idea of an adjustment in St Louis home prices or, perhaps even, any sort of slow down in the rate of home price appreciation given that the inventory of homes for sale is so low in so many parts of the St Louis area, however, maybe it’s something to look at. Continue Reading →

Ferguson vs Chesterfield – A Tale Of Two Cities

By Dennis Norman, on December 10th, 2016

A lot has happened to affect the real estate market where I grew up in the little town of Ferguson in North County over the past decade. First, like the rest of the country, beginning around 2000, Ferguson saw home prices increase at rates outpacing inflation until finally peaking in 2006 which then led to the housing market bubble burst shortly thereafter. Home prices in Ferguson, and everywhere else, then declined over the next few years until hitting bottom around the end of 2011, or beginning of 2012. Continue Reading →

St Louis Home Prices In April Increased Just 1 Percent From Year Ago For Non-Distressed Home Sales

By Dennis Norman, on May 21st, 2016

There were 2,290 St Louis Existing Homes Sold in April (in the 5-county core market), an increase of 1.0 percent from April 2015 when there were 2,265 homes sold. The median home price of homes in the St Louis 5-county core market (city of St Louis and counties of St Louis, St Charles, Franklin and Jefferson) during April 2016 was $173,850, an increase of 4.4 percent from April 2015 when the median price of existing homes sold was $166,500.

For the combined markets of the City of St Louis and the County of St Louis, there were 1,241 existing single Continue Reading →

Past 5 Years Increase In Regulatory Costs Associated with New Homes Nearly Five Times Higher Than Increase In CPI

By Dennis Norman, on May 10th, 2016

The median price of a new home in the U.S. in 2011 was $227,200 and this year, thus far, the median price is $288,000, an increase of 26.7 percent in that five-year period, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Continue Reading →

St Louis Real Estate Market 2015 Recap and Outlook for 2016

By Dennis Norman, on December 29th, 2015

As 2015 quickly comes to an end, we close out what has been one of the better years for the St Louis real estate market in many years! Homes in St Louis sold at a brisk pace and St Louis home prices showed solid appreciation! We saw a spring market that brought home buyers racing to new listings often competing with other buyers to see who could make the best offer the quickest, often-times with the final sale price equaling or exceeding the asking price followed by a steady market throughout the summer and into the winter months. Continue Reading →

Are St Louis Home Prices Too High?

By Dennis Norman, on July 10th, 2015

The St Louis real estate market continues to be hot with many sellers benefiting from the low inventory of homes for sale resulting in buyers flocking to new listings and, when the homes are priced right, multiple offers being received in the first day. Happened for one of my clients again this week…took the listing live on Tuesday at noon, had over 8 buyers through that afternoon and evening and multiple offers in hand by the next morning, all above listing price. Granted, there were a couple of weeks of pre-listing marketing we did to generate interest, and the seller worked hard to make sure the home was in show condition, but still, it sold quick! Continue Reading →