The median price of homes sold in Jefferson County during the past 12-months was $179,900, an increase of 6.83% from the prior 12-month period when the median price was $168,400. As the STL Market Report (an exclusive report available only from MORE, REALTORS®) shows, home sales declined slightly (1%) during the same period and the inventory remains low with a listing supply of just 2.74 months.
As the STL Market Chart at the bottom illustrates (also exclusively available only from MORE, REALTORS®), home prices in Jefferson County have had the normal, seasonal, fluctuations but have been steadily trending upward over the past five years. Home prices peaked early in the spring season in May of this year at $205,000 and have been slipping into the normal “winter lull” and will continue to slide until sometime between December and February when they typically bottom out. Last year, home prices peaked in July then fell 9.5% by September and this year Jefferson County home prices have fallen just over 10% since peaking in May. I expect home prices in Jefferson County to continue their upward trend albeit at a lower rate of appreciation than we have seen recently.
The median price of homes sold in Jefferson County during the 12 month period ended October 31, 2018, was $169,000 according to the STL Market Report™ from MORE™, REALTORS®. As the STL Market Report™ below shows, this is an increase in the median price of homes sold of 2.42% from the prior 12-month period. During the most recent 12-month period, there were 3,407 homes sold in Jefferson County, a decrease of 0.7% from the prior 12-month period. There is currently a 2.78 month supply of homes for sale in Jefferson County and listings have been on the market a median time of 119 days.
Yesterday, I had lunch with a friend in the industry who expressed his concern that the Jefferson County real estate market was cooling off a little and questioned the possibility a market correction. I referenced the article I wrote last week in which I explored the possibility of a market correction in St Louis and, based upon the data we have, came to the conclusion there wasn’t anything to be alarmed about at this time. However, I had looked at the 5 counties that make up the St Louis core market as a whole (which included Jefferson County) but did not look at the counties individually.
Therefore, this morning I drilled down in our data to look only at the Jefferson County real estate market, including home sales, inventory of homes for sale and home prices in Jefferson County to determine if there were indicators of a market correction looming in the near future.
Is a market correction coming for Jefferson County?
The short answer is yes and probably. Remember, all real estate is local, so the real estate market can vary signficantly within a metro area, a county, or even a city. This is why it is vital to have current, accurate market information (why we have spent several years developing our own software) and a real estate agent with access to the data, that can interpret it and apply it to their clients situation (which is why we have hand picked some of the best in the industry to be in our firm, MORE, REALTORS).
St Louis continues to enjoy a pretty robust real estate market, albeit it a challenging one for buyers due to the low inventory of homes for sale in most areas, with St Louis home sales, during the past 12 months, up over 5 percent from the prior 12-month period and St Louis home prices up over 5 percent for the same period as well. As the table below shows, in the 5-county core St Louis market, there were 27,437 homes sold in the 12-month period ending May 31, 2017, an increase of 5.13% from the prior 12-month period when there were 26,099 homes sold.
Year-over-year for the month of May looks good as well…
As I frequently comment, looking at home prices and sales activity for a 12-month period is the best way to get a realistic view of the market, less affected by timing of sales due to weather, day of the week the last day of the month falls on etc, it’s still worth looking at the most recent month and comparing it to the prior month, as well as prior year, to help spot trends or changes in the trend. With this in mind, as the chart below shows, for the St Louis core market there were 3,070 homes sold in May, 2017, an increase of 21.2% from the month before when there were 2,533 homes sold, and an increase of just under 1% from May 2016 when there were 3,042 homes sold. As the chart also reveals, homes sold in St Louis during May, 2017 were sold for a median price of $185,000, an increase of 2.8% from the month before when the median sales price was $180,000 and a slight increase of just one-half of one-percent from May 2016 when the median price St Louis homes sold for was $184,000.
Franklin County has the largest increases in home prices and sales during past 12 months…
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