Jefferson County Home Sales Trend Holds Steady

There were 3,379 homes sold in Jefferson County in the 12-month period ending September 30, 2019, a very slight decline of about 1% from a year ago when there were 3,413 homes sold in the prior 12-months.  For the past three months, the 12-month home sales trend in Jefferson County has been amazingly consistent, with data for July and September being identical and August being off by just 1 home sale.

Prices on the rise and inventory is low in Jefferson County..

As the STL Market Report for Jefferson County below the chart shows, there is just a 2.75 month supply of homes for sale in Jefferson County.  The fact that Jefferson County home prices have risen 6.83% in the past year doesn’t seem to have affected home sales there.

The Jefferson County Zip Code With The Hottest Real Estate Market

Yesterday I identified the Zip Code in St Charles County with the hottest real estate market so today I’ll do the same for Jefferson County.  I’ll save the long explanation I gave yesterday though about the importance of not looking at just one piece of data, how it takes a qualified agent with good data to really determine the health of a market, etc.  If you missed that, you can get it in yesterdays article.

What is the hottest market in Jefferson County today?

Based upon some of the data contained in the charts and tables below, I  would have to say that overall, the 63012 market is the hottest today.  As the tables and charts show, the 63012 zip area (Pevely, Barnhart, and Imperial) is number 1 on the fastest-selling zip list for Jefferson County at 40 days and has just over a 2-month supply of homes for sale.  In addition, as the chart at the bottom shows, our exclusive home sales and price trend chart shows home sales in the 63012 zip code area trending upward while most zip codes in the St Louis area are trending downward.

St Louis Home Sales Remain Steady But Trending Downward

In the last week, I’ve seen several reports indicating declining home sales on both a nationwide basis as well as for the St Louis market.  The reports vary widely but one local report indicated single family home sales were down 6 percent from a year ago, which, of course, should cause some concern for both agents as well as consumers since a 6 percent decline is significant.  However, this is why, for this very reason, MORE, REALTORS® developed their own proprietary software to analyze and report the market data (the same MLS data as the aforementioned report was based upon) and present it in a manner that more accurately depicts the market conditions and is more applicable than many of the other reports out there.

Before I go further, I’m not picking on anyone reporting market information, as most are simply reporting the data that is available to them and doing so in a common manner which is to look at data for one specific month (in this case November) and compare it to the same month a year ago.  I’m just suggesting that due to fluctuations that can be caused by, for example, weather during the month, the number of Friday’s during the month (a popular day for closings), etc. looking at a single month doesn’t paint a true picture of the market.  It also matters what area the data is for, is it the St Louis MSA (which includes 8 counties in Illninois) or the city of St Louis, or some other combination?

As you will see from our STL Market Report™ tables I’ve prepared below, the St Louis real estate market is actually holding fairly steady in terms of sales when we look at the past 12-month period and compare it with the prior 12-month period.  In terms of home prices, St Louis home prices have increased about 4% – 5% in the St Louis area, depending on how we look at the area.

Median Price of Homes Sold in Jefferson County In Past 12 Months Hits $169,000 – Sales Down Slightly

The median price of homes sold in Jefferson County during the 12 month period ended October 31, 2018, was $169,000 according to the STL Market Report™ from MORE™, REALTORS®.  As the STL Market Report™ below shows, this is an increase in the median price of homes sold of 2.42% from the prior 12-month period. During the most recent 12-month period, there were 3,407 homes sold in Jefferson County, a decrease of 0.7% from the prior 12-month period.  There is currently a 2.78 month supply of homes for sale in Jefferson County and listings have been on the market a median time of 119 days.

STL Market Report – Homes – Jefferson County

(click on table to go to live report)

STL Market Report - Homes - Jefferson County

Are Home Prices Too High in Jefferson County? Is a Correction Coming?

Yesterday, I had lunch with a friend in the industry who expressed his concern that the Jefferson County real estate market was cooling off a little and questioned the possibility a market correction.  I referenced the article I wrote last week in which I explored the possibility of a market correction in St Louis and, based upon the data we have, came to the conclusion there wasn’t anything to be alarmed about at this time.  However, I had looked at the 5 counties that make up the St Louis core market as a whole (which included Jefferson County) but did not look at the counties individually.

Therefore, this morning I drilled down in our data to look only at the Jefferson County real estate market, including home sales, inventory of homes for sale and home prices in Jefferson County to determine if there were indicators of a market correction looming in the near future.

Is a market correction coming for Jefferson County?

The short answer is yes and probably.  Remember, all real estate is local, so the real estate market can vary signficantly within a metro area, a county, or even a city.  This is why it is vital to have current, accurate market information (why we have spent several years developing our own software) and a real estate agent with access to the data, that can interpret it and apply it to their clients situation (which is why we have hand picked some of the best in the industry to be in our firm, MORE, REALTORS).

St Louis Home Sales and Home Prices Are Both Up Over 5 Percent From A Year Ago

St Louis continues to enjoy a pretty robust real estate market, albeit it a challenging one for buyers due to the low inventory of homes for sale in most areas, with St Louis home sales, during the past 12 months, up over 5 percent from the prior 12-month period and St Louis home prices up over 5 percent for the same period as well.   As the table below shows, in the 5-county core St Louis market, there were 27,437 homes sold in the 12-month period ending May 31, 2017, an increase of 5.13% from the prior 12-month period when there were 26,099 homes sold.

Year-over-year for the month of May looks good as well…

As I frequently comment, looking at home prices and sales activity for a 12-month period is the best way to get a realistic view of the market, less affected by timing of sales due to weather, day of the week the last day of the month falls on etc, it’s still worth looking at the most recent month and comparing it to the prior month, as well as prior year, to help spot trends or changes in the trend.  With this in mind, as the chart below shows, for the St Louis core market there were 3,070 homes sold in May, 2017, an increase of 21.2% from the month before when there were 2,533 homes sold, and an increase of just under 1% from May 2016 when there were 3,042 homes sold.  As the chart also reveals, homes sold in St Louis during May, 2017 were sold for a median price of $185,000, an increase of 2.8% from the month before when the median sales price was $180,000 and a slight increase of just one-half of one-percent from May 2016 when the median price St Louis homes sold for was $184,000.

Franklin County has the largest increases in home prices and sales during past 12 months…

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