St Louis City & County Home Sales Trend Downward Over Past 12 Months- Prices Trend Upward

Home sales and home prices in St Louis city and St Louis County during the 12-month period ending November 30, 2017, are trending in opposite directions.  Home sales, for these two areas combined, have, as the chart below reveals, declined 4.2% from 44,823 home sales for the 12 month period ended November 30, 2016 to 42,958 home sales for the period ended November 30, 2017.  The median price per foot for homes sold during these same periods however have increased 3.7% from $107 per foot for the period ended November 2016 to $111 per foot for the period ended November 30, 2017.

St Louis City/County Home Sales & Price Per Foot – (chart)

12-Month Period Ending 11/30/2016 vs

12-Month Period Ending 11/22/2016 No Distressed Sales

(click on chart for live data)St Louis City/County Home Sales & Price Per Foot - (chart)  12-Month Period Ending 11/30/2016 vs  12-Month Period Ending 11/22/2016 No Distressed Sales

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St Louis City & County See Home Sales Fall In September While Prices Spike

The city and county of St Louis, collectively, accounted for nearly two-thirds of the home sales in the St Louis core-market during the past 12 months. There were 16,790 homes sold in the city and county of St Louis during the period October 1, 2016, through September 30, 2017, 61.0% of the 27,517 total number of homes sold in the 5-County Core St Louis real estate market during the period.

Home prices spike in St Louis City/County…

The median price of homes sold during the 12-month period ending September 30, 2017, was $174,900, a rather modest, but sustainable, 2.94% from the prior 12 month period when the median price was $169,900 (see table below).  The number of homes sold during this period increased 4.31% to 16,790 homes from 16,097 during the prior 12-month period.

However, as our monthly chart below the table indicates, home prices for sales that closed during September spiked significantly to a median sold price of $185,000, a whopping month-over-month increase of 4.3% from $177,375 during August.  During September, the number of homes sold in the city and county of St Louis tumbled 17.8 percent from 1,662 in August to 1,366 homes sold in September.

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Remember, real estate is very seasonal!

As I have said many times, real estate is very seasonal so we cannot read much into month-over-month numbers.  However, as our chart below shows, over the past 5 years, St Louis home prices have peaked in June or July, then rescinded afterward.  Home sales generally follow suit, peaking around June and then declining afterward.  Last year we saw an uptick in home sales and prices (1% and 3.3% respectively) in August and then both declined afterward.

Is there a price correction coming in St Louis city and county?

What makes this year standout is September saw the median home price increase 4.3% to $185,000 from $177,375 the month before while home sales, on the other hand, fell 17.8% from the month before.  In addition, if you look at the “On Market Listing Data” below our chart, you will see the median price of active listings is even higher, at $195,900.

A couple of other things that stand out to me that make me believe we are going to see a price correction coming in St Louis city and county are:

  • There is currently a 4.34 month supply of homes for sale – while, historically this is not bad, compared with the more recent past, it’s high.  Also, it’s growing…as the first table below shows, there was just a 3.04 month supply as of September 30th, so the supply has increased by 1.3 months in the 24 days since.
  • The price per foot (best way to look at home prices) that homes sold during the past 12 months was $124 however, in September, when prices peaked, it jumped to $128/foot.  Active listings in October, are still at $128/foot…looks like wishful thinking on the part of sellers and listing agents to me.

St Louis City and County Home Prices and Sales – Oct 2016 Through Sept 2017 (Table)St Louis City and County Home Prices and Sales - Oct 2016 Through Sept 2017 (Table)

St Louis City and County Home Prices and Sales – Past 5 Years (Chart)

St Louis City and County Home Prices and Sales - Past 5 Years (Chart)

The Importance Of Accurate Home Price Data And The Danger Of Bad Data

Ok, I’ll admit it, I know I’m sort of a big data nerd and not everyone is, so I may be in the minority when it comes to the attention I give, and time I devote, to market data, stats, trends and the like.  However, while not everyone wants to study this stuff, anyone in the market to buy or sell real estate either needs to be up to date on what is going on in the market in terms of price (and the other stuff I mentioned) or be represented by a real estate agent that is.  Otherwise, without this information or, worse yet, with bad information, home buyers and sellers can make some really bad decisions.

There is a lot of “bad” data out there and it can hurt you!

When I started in the real estate business, way back in 1979 and the age of 18, it was very hard to get much data on home prices, sales, etc, heck, it wasn’t even easy to find out what was listed for sale.  Today, largely a result of the internet, things are much different.  There is plenty of data and information available to home buyers and sellers today and it’s easy to find. The hard part today isn’t getting the data and information, it’s getting good, accurate and relevant data and information.  You don’t have to spend much time online, whether on social media sites, real estate websites or even “news” sites, to discover all sorts of inaccurate, incomplete, dated, useless and conflicting data and information.  For example, in the past week, I saw reports, even from people in the real estate profession in St Louis, indicating home prices declined last month from a year ago to the tune of about 3% or so, but I don’t believe that is the case.  Bear with me and keep reading and you will see why I say this as well as what I think is accurate with regard to St Louis home prices.

Usually the source means well and the data is believed to be accurate, but….

With regard to real estate, I think most of the data published on real estate sites, social media sites, etc by real estate agents as well as others in the industry, is believed by the person putting it out there to be accurate, the problem is it often is not. The problem is, without really digging into the source of the data, or examining what criteria was used to compile the data or report, people are often passing along information they are just assuming to be accurate but often is not.

So, where can you find good, accurate and relevant information and data on the St Louis real estate market?

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Search St Louis Homes For Sale HERE
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Get Home Prices and Sale Charts For ANY Area- STLMarketCharts.com
Get Home Prices and Sale Tables and Data For ANY Area- STLMarketReports.com
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