New Sales Last Week Declined Over Thirty Percent From The Week Before

Last week there were 551 new contracts written for the sale of listings in the St Louis 5-county core market down over thirty-six percent (31.3%) from the week before when there were 802 new contracts written, according to the STL Real Estate Trends Report, exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®.  The new sales activity last week was down even more (nearly 36%) from the same week a year ago when there were 851 new contracts written on listings.   There is no doubt this is the result of mortgage interest rates which have nearly doubled in the last 15 months.

New listings on the other hand increased last week to 851 from 618 the week before.  The new listing activity is pretty much in line with the same week a year ago when there were 858 new listings.  If this trend continues the listing supply will likely increase significantly.  Given that the for the 5-county core market its been under 1 month for a long time, it can afford to increase some.

The current week will be very telling.  When we see data next week from this week, if the numbers are similar to what we saw last week, it’s a likely indicator of a market shift to some extent.  Time will tell..

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St Louis Home Sales Trend In September Down 3 Percent From Year Ago

For the 12-month period ended September 30, 2019, there were  26,775 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market, down 3.2% from the same period a year ago, according to the latest data from MORE, REALTORS.  As the chart below illustrates, home sales in St Louis have, for the most part, been trending downward since peaking in May 2018 with 27,830 homes sold in the 12-month period ending that month.

St Louis Home Sales Trend – Past 5 Years

(click chart for live chart)

St Louis Home Sales Trend - 5 Year Chart

St Louis Home Sales Continue Downward Trend – YTD Home Sales Lowest In 4 Years

Year to date, through the end of May, there were 9,929 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market, a decline of 5.2% from this time last year when 10,477 homes had sold.  This marks the lowest YTD home sales through May since May 2015, when there were 9,262 homes sold.  As the second chart below illustrates, the St Louis home sales trend (trailing 12 months and represented by the dark green line) peaked in October 2018 with 26,032 homes sold in the prior 12 months but then stalled and has begun a slight downward trend which continues with 25,433 homes sold in the 12 month period ending in May 2019.

Meanwhile, St Louis home prices continue to rise with the median price of homes sold in the past 12 months in the 5-County Core market increasing 5.21% from the prior 12-month period.  As the table below the charts shows, the median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market during the most recent 12-month period was $199,900, an increase from $190,000 during the prior 12-month period.

The inventory of homes for sale has declined even further from last month, with just s 1.81 month supply of homes for sale in the St Louis 5-County Core Market.  The low inventory is the key reason behind the lower home sales as there just aren’t enough homes for sale to satisfy the current home buyer demand.

Would-be home sellers are afraid to list their homes…

The low supply of homes for sale, coupled with the high demand, has many homeowners reluctant to list their homes for sale for fear they will sell but won’t be able to find a home to buy.  This is why we developed our “Guaranteed No Sale” program, something that protects sellers from becoming “homeless”.  It allows a seller to list their home with the confidence they won’t be obligated to sell if they are not successful in finding a home to buy.  You can find out more at GuaranteedNoSale.com.

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