St Louis Home Sales Trending Downward Last 12-Months- Not So In St Charles and Jefferson County

Given the impact of COVID-19 on the St Louis real estate market, particularly during the late winter/early spring months as well as a low-inventory market already, it should not come as a surprise that St Louis area home sales have trended downward somewhat during the past 12-months.  As our STL Market Report below shows, for the 5-county core St Louis real estate market, there were 26,723 homes sold during the 12-month period ended July 31, 2020, a decline of 0.88% from the prior 12-month period when there were 26,960 homes sold.  That very modest decline I think is actually very encouraging given what the market has been through with COVID-19.

St Louis 5-County Core Market Home Sales

St Louis 5-County Core Market Home Sales 



St Charles County and Jefferson County are the exceptions…

While the overall 5-county market was down, individually, the counties of St Charles and Jefferson have both fared better and, in fact, had modest increases in home sales during this period.  As the tables below show, there were 5,878 homes sold in St Charles county during the past 12-months, an increase of 1.08% from the prior 12 months.  In Jefferson County, there were 3,406 homes sold during the past 12-months, an increase of 0.53% from the prior 12-months.

St Charles County Home Sales

St Charles County Home Sales

Jefferson County Home SalesJefferson County Home Sales

 

St Louis Home Sales Trending Upward Slightly

After peaking in May 2018 with 27,829 homes sold in the prior 12-months, the St Louis home sales trend has trended downward until hitting 26,852 homes sold in the 12-month period ended August 31, 2019.  However, for the two months since this low, St Louis home sales have trended upward slightly, reaching 26,888 homes sold in the 12-month period ended October 31, 2019.

St Louis 5-County Core Market Home Sales Trend – Past 5 Years

St Louis 5-County Core Market Home Sales Trend - Past 5 Years

St Louis Home Sales Continue Downward Trend

Home sales in the St Louis 5-County Core Market for the 12-month period ended September 30th, 2019 were down just over 3% from the same period a year ago.   During the same period, home prices in the St Louis 5-County Core market increased a little over 5% as the report below from MORE, REALTORS shows.

Inventory of homes for sale still favors sellers…

As the report shows, there is just a 2.44 month supply of homes for sale in the St Louis core market which means the St Louis market is still very much a seller’s market.

St Louis Home Sales Trend In September Down 3 Percent From Year Ago

For the 12-month period ended September 30, 2019, there were  26,775 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market, down 3.2% from the same period a year ago, according to the latest data from MORE, REALTORS.  As the chart below illustrates, home sales in St Louis have, for the most part, been trending downward since peaking in May 2018 with 27,830 homes sold in the 12-month period ending that month.

St Louis Home Sales Trend – Past 5 Years

(click chart for live chart)

St Louis Home Sales Trend - 5 Year Chart

St Louis Home Sales Trend Falls In August

For the 5-county core St Louis housing market, there were 26.047 homes sold during the 12-month period ended August 31, 2019, a decline of 3% from the 12-month trend for the prior month. As the chart (a proprietary product developed by MORE, REALTORS to help keep its agents and clients on top of market conditions) below shows, there were 27,753 homes sold during the 12-month period ended August 31st of 2018, so the current period sales of 26,047 homes represents a 6.1% decrease from the same period a year ago.

St Louis 5-County Core Market – Home Sales Trend – Past 5 Years

(click on chart for live chart)

St Louis 5-County Core Market - Home Sales Trend - Past 5 Years©2019 MORE, REALTORS – all rights reserved

St Louis Home Sales Trend Remains Flat – 2019 Outlook Remains Good

The real estate market in St Louis continues to do well although the home sales trend, as our chart below illustrates, has flatlined over the past year.  On our chart, we plot the home sales for the prior 12 months for each month thereby making it easier to see trends in the marketplace.  As you can see, over the past 5 years, the trend line consistently increased from about this time 5 years until about a year ago where it leveled off.  This is not surprising as it is not realistic for our market in St Louis to be able to support that growth rate indefinitely.  St Louis has had very little population growth over the past several years, and everyone only moves so often, so there is only so much sales growth we can sustain.

St Louis Home Prices May Hit Resistance But So Far So Good..

There has been a lot of talk lately about a “price correction” coming in the housing market and I have discussed the possibility of it for the St Louis market as well.  However, as the bottom chart shows, St Louis home prices during the past 5 years have been very consistent with an upward trend over time with the normal seasonal fluctuations along the way.  Looking at the most recent couple of months as well as the past year as a whole doesn’t reveal any change in the trend at this point. Of course, this is something that can change quickly and I’ll be keeping an eye on it in the coming months but for now, things still look good for 2019 here in St Louis.

St Louis Home Sales Trending Downward Slightly

On a national level, there have been reports lately of slowing home sales evidenced by both new home sales and existing home sales falling in June, housing affordability issues and the like.  Here in St Louis, the real estate market continues to perform well, however, indicators are showing a slight downward trend in St Louis home sales.

As the chart below illustrates, there have been 14,268 homes sold through the end of June in the St Louis metro area, a decline of 4.4% from the same period a year ago when there were 14,925 homes sold in St Louis.  The darker green line on the chart indicates the total sales for the past 12 months and is a good indicator of where things are headed.  As you can see, there was a pretty good jump in this line 2 years ago with a steady rise but it has fluctuated around the same level for the past 8 or 9 months.  Last month, as well as in two of the prior 5 months, it showed a downward trend.

St Louis MSA YTD & Past 12 Month Home Sales – June 2016 – June 2018

(Click on chart for live data)
St Louis MSA YTD & Past 12 Month Home Sales - June 2016 - June 2018