St Louis Home Sales Trend Slows Slightly In August

There continue to be conversations by St Louis REALTORS® as well as other industry professionals as to whether or not the market is cooling off somewhat or slowing down.  I keep watching the data closely to look for signs of a substantive change and while there are some, the market adjustments appear to be somewhat insignificant at this point. Last month, in an article about July’s market, I pointed out a slight slowing of the trend in July.  Now, I’m taking a look at August, specifically, the number of new listings that came on the St Louis real estate market during that month versus the number of new sales during the month.

More new listings in August than a year ago, fewer new sales:

As the STL Real Estate Trends Reports below show (exclusively available from MORE, REALTORS®) 3,702 new listings came on the market in the St Louis 5-County core during August, an increase in new St Louis listings of 3.2% from a year ago when there were 3,586 new listings.  Conversely, there were 3,861 new sales of homes last month, a decrease in St Louis home sales of 2.2% from a year ago when there were 3,949 new contracts written.

New contracts written exceeded listings again but not by as much margin:

During August 2020, the number of new contracts written on listings exceeded new listings in St Louis by about 10 percent (10.1%).  Last month, new sales of St Louis listings only exceed the number of new listings by just over 4 percent (4.2%).

So, as I mentioned, the change in trend is slight, but something worth keeping an eye on.

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Home Sales Trend In St Louis 5-County Core Market Falls To Lowest Level In Over 3 Years

After peaking in May 2018 with 27,829 homes sold in the prior 12-months, the St Louis home sales trend has trended downward to 26,830 homes sold in the 12-month period ended November 30, 2019.  This marks the lowest home sales trend for the St Louis 5-County core market in over three years.

In spite of this statistical fact, it should be noted that the difference in home sales for the 12-month period ended November 30, 2019, from the same period a year ago, is just under 3%, so it is a pretty modest decline.

St Louis 5-County Core Market Home Sales Trend – Past 5 Years

(Click on chart for live, interactive chart)

St Louis 5-County Core Market Home Sales Trend - Past 5 Years

St Louis Home Sales Trend Show Lower Rate of Increase

Homes have sold in the St Louis area at an increasing rate for a little more than 3 years now, however, as the chart below illustrates, the trend is flattening.  The chart below, which was created from software our firm developed which compiles data from the MLS, plots homes sales for the past 12 months for each month.  So, rather than just seeing the activity for one month and all the seasonal fluctuation, you can actually see the sales trend.

Since March 2015, the 12-month home sales trend has steadily increased at a fairly steady pace however, it appears we may have hit the ceiling.  For the 12-month period ended May 31, 2018, there were 27,755 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County Core market (city of St Louis and counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin) a very slight increase over the 12-month period ended April 2018 when there were 27,653 homes sold and just a 1.5% increase from a year ago when there  27,339 homes sold in the prior 12-month period.

St Louis 5-County Core Market- 12-Month Home Sales Trend – Past 5 Years

(click chart for live chart and table)

t Louis 5-County Core Market- 12-Month Home Sales Trend - Past 5 Years