Key takeaways from this list include:
- Huntleigh dominates with the highest average sale price of $2,097,249 and impressively quick transactions, with homes spending an average of just 20 days on the market. It’s important to note that these figures are based on a limited sample of only four home sales.
- Frontenac and Town and Country are not far behind, boasting substantial average prices of $1,436,364 and $1,389,021, respectively. The volume of sales in these areas—46 and 68 homes sold—points to a healthy and active market.
- Clayton and Ladue marry luxury with lively market activity, seeing 103 and 148 homes sold at steep average prices of $1,372,398 and $1,330,002, respectively.
Additional cities such as Westwood, Josephville, Town and Country, and Clarkson Valley also feature on the list, each contributing unique market traits but collectively underscoring the strong demand for high-end residential properties in the area.
St Louis MSA’s Most Expensive Cities-Avg Price-Homes Sold In Past Year
(click on list for current, complete list)
The dynamics of the new home market are shifting significantly as we advance into 2024, with a clear trend towards smaller, more personalized living spaces emerging nationwide. This evolution reflects a broader change in homeowner preferences and market conditions, according to the latest “What Home Buyers Really Want” study by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).
Recent data points to a decline in the average size of new homes, continuing a trend that began following a brief uptick in 2021. The average new home size has decreased to 2,411 square feet in 2023, marking the smallest average size in over a decade. This reduction aligns with homebuyers’ preferences, which have also shifted towards more compact living spaces. Today, the desired home size is around 2,070 square feet, significantly less than the 2,260 square feet preferred two decades ago.
Rose Quint, NAHB’s assistant vice president of survey research, identifies two main factors driving this trend: a change in homebuyer preferences and the escalating challenge of housing affordability. In response, builders are adapting their strategies, with 38% reporting a shift towards constructing smaller homes in 2023 to facilitate sales, and 26% planning to continue this approach into 2024. Efforts to address affordability concerns have led to reductions in median new home prices to $427,400 in 2023, a 7 percentage point drop from the previous year and the most significant decrease since 2009.
Beyond size, homebuyers are increasingly seeking personalized and authentic living spaces. Donald Ruthroff, AIA, of Design Story Spaces LLC, highlights a growing demand for customization, with homeowners desiring unique features that set their homes apart. This trend towards personalization is evident in the choice of home upgrades, from custom kitchen islands to premium flooring options.
The study also reveals that homebuyers’ priorities have evolved, with a focus on outdoor living, kitchen functionality, and energy efficiency. Top desired features include laundry rooms, patios, Energy Star windows, and smart home technology, such as security cameras and programmable thermostats. Additionally, preferences have expanded to include quartz countertops, outdoor kitchens, and built-in seating, underscoring a shift towards both practicality and luxury in home design.
As we move through 2024, the shift towards smaller, more personalized homes is reshaping the real estate landscape. This trend, driven by changing preferences and affordability challenges, highlights the importance of staying informed about market dynamics for both homebuyers and builders and you’re in the right place now to do that, St Louis Real Estate News.
The latest figures from the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index reveal that 70.8% of people in the St. Louis MSA, with a median income of $101,200, could afford to buy a median-priced home. This percentage has seen a slight increase from the 3rd quarter of 2023, when it was 69.3%. As demonstrated in the chart below, this positions St. Louis as the 31st most affordable metro area for home purchases, out of the 242 that were ranked.
St Louis MSA Housing Affordability & National Rank (2014-2023)
Today, ATTOM released its ‘2024 Rental Affordability Report,’ presenting a comprehensive analysis of the current state of home rental and ownership in the United States. The report indicates that renting a median three-bedroom home is more affordable than owning a similarly-sized property in nearly 90% of the U.S. markets. This trend continues despite rents growing faster than home prices. A significant finding for our industry is that both renting and owning pose substantial financial burdens on average workers, consuming over a third of their wages in most county-level housing markets.
Data for St. Louis County is consistent with the report.
Since the report covered only counties with a population of 1 million people or greater, St. Louis County was the sole county from our area included. The report highlights that in St. Louis County, MO, renting remains more affordable compared to owning. This reflects the national trend, with median three-bedroom rents requiring only 24% of average local wages compared to higher percentages for home ownership costs. It’s worth noting that the affordability gap between renting and owning in St. Louis County is much narrower than in many counties in the U.S., particularly coastal areas.
Things may change soon though based upon trends shown.
The report reveals that in 2024, median rents for three-bedroom homes have risen more than single-family home prices in a majority of counties. This indicates a shift in the rental market dynamics, emphasizing the growing challenge for renters in finding affordable housing.
Rent vs. Wage Growth
An alarming trend noted in the report is that median three-bedroom rents are increasing faster than average local wages in over half of the markets analyzed. This disparity is a crucial factor contributing to the affordability crisis, as it indicates that wage growth is not keeping pace with rising housing costs.
Buying a Home: Long-Term Certainty vs. Short-Term Instability.
For those who have been following my articles over the past few years, I hope you’ve realized that I don’t blindly advocate for homeownership. I recognize that owning a home isn’t the best choice for everyone. In many cases, renting a home or an apartment is a better fit. However, considering the details in this report, it’s clear why buying a home can be advantageous for those in a position to do so. It offers the long-term certainty of fixed costs, contrasting sharply with the volatility of the rental market. This contrast is especially pertinent in light of the report’s findings that rent increases are outstripping wage growth.
Understanding Your Real Estate Options
At MORE REALTORS®, we pride ourselves on having a team of some of the most skilled and professional real estate agents in the St. Louis area. Our agents are dedicated to providing informed guidance tailored to each individual’s needs. Whether you’re considering buying or leasing, we’re here to offer insights and assistance based on your unique situation. For more information about our agents and the services we offer, please visit morerealtors.com. Alternatively, you can contact me directly at Dennis@STLRE.com, and I’d be happy to connect you with one of our knowledgeable real estate professionals.
A report just released by ATTOM Data Research details housing affordability for the largest counties in the St. Louis metro area for the 3rd quarter of 2023. Affordability, measured by the percentage of wages needed to buy a home, shows considerable variation across counties in Illinois and Missouri. This metric is influenced by factors such as median sales prices and average wages.
For instance, in the County of St. Louis City (yes, it’s odd, but it’s a county), it only takes 17.3% of the annualized wages of an average earner to buy a median-priced home. In contrast, in St. Charles County, it takes 38.3% of annualized wages to afford a home. As the table below illustrates, in 4 of the 7 counties covered in the report, an average wage earner could afford to buy a home. Interestingly, home price appreciation is outpacing annualized wages in those counties, indicating that this affordability may soon change.
Percentage Of Income Needed To Buy A Home In St Louis
St Louis Housing Affordability Index By County 
The 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate has experienced a significant drop, reaching 7.4% – the lowest since September 20th, nearly two months ago. This shift provides a much-needed reprieve in the housing market, particularly following the rate’s surge to 8.03% on October 19th, a peak unseen since August 7, 2000, 23 years ago.
The October high had introduced uncertainty and slowed down the real estate market, impacting buyer affordability and seller activity. The recent decline to 7.4%, though still high historically, is a positive sign, potentially reinvigorating interest and activity in the housing market.
This change in rates is key for real estate professionals and buyers in areas like St. Louis. It presents an opportunity for buyers to reconsider their purchasing plans and for sellers to anticipate increased market interest. The future trajectory of interest rates remains a point of keen observation for the real estate market.
Mortgage Interest Rates
(click on chart for live, interactive chart)
In the world of real estate, down payments have emerged as a significant financial factor for homebuyers across the United States, and St. Louis is no exception. A recent report from LendingTree sheds light on the dynamics of down payments, and it’s essential for prospective buyers and sellers in St. Louis to understand how the local market fares in this regard.
St. Louis Down Payment Statistics:
- St. Louis ranks 42nd out of the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas in terms of average down payments. This ranking places it 9th in terms of the lowest down payment amount in the 50 largest metros.
- The average down payment in St. Louis comes in at $56,251. While this figure may not reach the heights seen in some of the more expensive coastal cities, it’s still a substantial amount.
Down Payment as a Percentage of Income:
- One critical metric to assess affordability is the down payment as a percentage of the average annual household income. In St. Louis, the average down payment represents approximately 54.87% of the area’s average annual household income.
Challenges and Opportunities:
- For many homebuyers in St. Louis, coming up with a down payment that accounts for over half of their annual household income can present challenges. It may require careful financial planning and discipline to accumulate the necessary funds.
- On the positive side, St. Louis fares better than several major metros where down payments exceed 100% of the average household income.
Tips for St. Louis Homebuyers:
- Prospective buyers in St. Louis should explore various options for coming up with a down payment, such as saving over time or investigating loan programs that require lower upfront cash.
- Additionally, buyers should stay informed about down payment assistance programs available in the St. Louis area that can help make homeownership more accessible.
In summary, while St. Louis may not have the highest average down payments in the nation, it’s essential for local homebuyers to be aware of the financial aspects of purchasing a home. Understanding how down payments align with income and local market conditions is key to making informed decisions in the St. Louis real estate market. Stay tuned to StLouisRealEstateNews.com for more insights into the St. Louis real estate landscape.
As a result of rising interest rates and home prices at levels higher than increases in income, homes in St Louis continue to become less affordable. In fact, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Research, home affordability declined double digits during the 3rd quarter of this year in all five counties that make up the St Louis core market. As the info graphic below illustrates, the percentage of wages needed to buy a home have, depending upon county, increased about a third to almost half from the historical “norm”.
Least affordable ever…
Three of the five counties that make up the St Louis Core market (St Louis, St Louis City, and St Charles) hit the least affordable levels ever during 3rd quarter, with Franklin County hitting its lowest level last quarter and seeing a slight uptick in affordability during 3rd quarter. Conversely, Jefferson County saw its least affordable quarter back in 2007.
Most affordable ever…
We have to take a quick stroll down memory lane to visit when homes were most affordable in the St Louis area. Franklin County had its most affordable quarter just back in 2020, St Louis County was back in 2013, Jefferson and St Charles 2012 and the City of St Louis had its most affordable quarter over 14 years ago in 2009.
St Louis Home Affordability – 3rd Quarter 2023
(click on image below for full infographic showing all info)
For the past several months there have been many reports anticipating the moves of the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates then followed by tons of articles, blog posts and videos analyzing then predicting the impact of the Fed’s decision on the economy. The other popular topic in this area is the “Money Supply”, usually M2 money supply and whether it’s increasing or decreasing as well as the impact on the economy.
Should St Louis homeowners and potential home buyers really care about the Fed Funds rate or M2 money supply?
First, let’s talk about the Fed Funds rate and what it is, what it is intended to do and the affect it can have on the real estate market. The Fed Funds rate is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight to maintain their reserve requirements. This rate is set by the Federal Reserve, and changes to the rate can have a ripple effect throughout the economy, including the mortgage and housing markets. When the Fed lowers the Fed Funds rate, it can stimulate economic growth by making it cheaper for banks to borrow money, which can lead to lower mortgage interest rates. Lower mortgage rates make it more affordable for homebuyers to finance their purchases, which can increase demand for homes and drive up prices. Conversely, when the Fed raises the Fed Funds rate, it can lead to higher mortgage interest rates, which can slow down the housing market and lead to lower demand and prices.
Next, the the M2 money supply. The M2 money supply includes cash, checking accounts, savings accounts, and other liquid assets that can be easily converted into cash. When the M2 money supply increases, it can stimulate economic activity by making more money available for borrowing and spending. This can lead to lower mortgage interest rates as well, as banks have more funds available to lend out. However, if the M2 money supply increases too rapidly, it can lead to inflation, which can cause mortgage interest rates to rise.
So, as you can see, both the Fed Funds rate and M2 money supply can have a significant impact on the cost of a home mortgage as well as home prices so I would say the answer to the question I posed is “yes”. Granted, we don’t all need to become economists or stay up late at night pouring through spreadsheets and date, but to be aware of factors that affect the economy as a whole and as a result, the real estate market we’re in, would be wise.
How can knowledge of the Fed Funds rate and M2 money supply help me as a home seller or buyer?
The short answer is, it gives you a little insight into perhaps where things are headed which may help you make the decision to buy or sell sooner or later. For example, perhaps you are contemplating buying an home but anguishing over the fact the mortgage interest rates are double what they were a year or two ago and you’re thinking maybe you should wait until things settle down. Well, if you see the Fed Funds rate getting increased with talk of more increases while that is no guarantee mortgage interest rates will increase as well, as I explained above, it’s certainly an indicator that is a likelihood. Therefore, you may decide it’s better to make a move now than later.
What’s an easy way to track this stuff?
I have the answer for you. The charts below are two of the many charts and other information available on St Louis Real Estate Search as well as from MORE, REALTORS® . The first chart shows the relationship historically between St Louis home prices and the M2 Money Supply. Generally, they follow the same trend but, when the trend for one changes, like it did with St Louis home prices (the red line on the chart) beginning in the late 90’s through the housing market bubble burst after 2006, something happens to bring them back in line. As you can see, starting a little over 3 years ago the pace at which M2 was growing outpaced St Louis home prices, but St Louis home prices quickly caught up. Now it’s the opposite and it looks like both a making a downward correction.
The bottom chart shows the close relationship between the Fed Funds rate and mortgage interest rates. With little exception, when the Fed Funds rate increases or decreases, mortgage rates follow. For the past year, the Fed Funds rate has increased and the trend is upward so I wouldn’t expect to see falling mortgage interest rates anytime soon.
Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) announced a reduction in the mortgage insurance premium charged to borrowers on FHA loans. The mortgage insurance premium is a charge over and above the interest on the loan that is the fee to HUD for insuring the loan. Currently, the FHA mortgage insurance premium varies from 0.45% to 1.05% of the loan amount depending upon the loan term (15 or 30 years) and the LTV (loan to value). Effective with FHA mortgages endorsed for insurance by FHA on or after March 20, 2023, the rate will be reduced by 0.30% across the board.
The table below shows the current charges for FHA mortgage insurance premiums for various loan terms and LTV’s as well as what the new charges will be. On an FHA loan amount of $265,000 a borrower will have a monthly payment that is about $66.00 lower as a result of the reduction in mortgage insurance premiums.
FHA Annual Mortgage Insurance Premium (MIP) – Current Rates vs. New Rates
(click on table to see complete HUD press release)
A report just released by ATTOM data shows that St Louis home prices are rising at a rate significantly higher than the rate wages in St Louis are rising and St Louis rental rates are increasing at rates higher than home prices. As the chart below shows, during the past year, wages in the St Louis metro area increased 3.8% however, home prices in St Louis increased 7.9% and rental rates increased 11.2%.
St Louis MSA – Housing Affordability
Data source: ATTOM Data – Copyright 2023 – all rights reserved, Guerrilla Brokers LLC
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo, jointly publish quarterly their Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) which shows the affordability, or lack thereof, of homes to a typical family. To arrive at an index value the median home price of recently sold homes for an area is taken into account as well as the median income for a family in that area. From this data the index is computed to show how affordable the typical home is to a typical family. The higher the index, the more affordable homes are to buyers in that market and the lower the index the less affordable.
For the 3rd quarter of 2022, the HOI index hit the lowest level (meaning homes were less affordable) since the inception of the HOI in 2012. As the chart below shows, the current Housing Opportunity Index for the U.S. is at 42.2% meaning just over 40% of families can afford to buy a home in their area. This is down slightly from 2nd quarter but down quite a bit from the first quarter of this year when it was 56.9%.
Affordability in St Louis is much better…
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index is also produced for metro-areas. For the third quarter of this year, St Louis had a HOI index of 74.8, over 30 points better than the national index! This means a typical home in St Louis is affordable to about 30% more of St Louis families with a typical income than on the national level.
NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI)
(click on chart for current, live, interactive chart)
A little over two weeks ago I wrote my most recent article addressing St Louis home prices titled “Will St Louis Home Prices Decline?” in which my short answer was “yes”, but kind of tongue in cheek and based upon the seasonality of home prices, but my longer answer was more vague. I mentioned that there certainly is a correction coming but pointed out that there are so many variables that will affect prices that it is hard to say to what extent this correction will be. While this is still true, a lot has happened in the short time period since that article that has caused me to become more bearish on the St Louis real estate market to the point where I’m confident St Louis home prices will decline.
What has changed in the last 16 days…
- While it doesn’t directly impact the St Louis market, hurricane Ian has wreaked havoc on a lot of Florida and other areas and will no doubt impact the overall housing market and economy and likely in more of a negative way.
- Interest rates have risen another 1/2% hitting and staying near 7%.
- The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) just announced that mortgage applications dropped over 14% during the last week of September, the biggest one-week drop in 17 months and pushed their index down to the lowest point since 1997.
- The percentage of active listings that have reduced the asking price at least once broke the 40% mark.
- The 12-month home sales trend for St Louis for the period ending September 30, 2022 fell to the lowest point in over 2-years.
- Active listings in St Louis have been for sale a median of 43 days over four times higher than the median time to sell during the past 2 years of 10 days.
Market data pointing to lower St Louis home prices…
- The declining sales trend mentioned above. As chart 1 below shows, home sales during September in St Louis were down nearly 19% from last September.
- The declining home price trend. Chart 1 also reveals the median price of homes sold during September 2022 was $267,500, only 2.8% from then September 2021 when the median sold price was $260,000 which was a 8.3% increase from September 2020 when the median price was $240,000.
- Showings on active listings continues to decline. Chart 2 shows there are almost 10% fewer showings of active listings now then there were in the first week of January (the slowest time of the year). Last year at this time showing activity was over 30% higher than now and in 2020 it was abut 55% higher. Fewer showings mean fewer sales in coming.
- The widening gap between home prices and rental rates. Chart 3 shows the home price index (blue line) rising above the rental rates (red line) at a fairly steep rate. Historically, such as the late 1980’s – 2000 shown on the left side of the chart, these two lines track closely with home prices slight below the rental rates line. The last time home prices started increasing more than rents was in the early 2000’s and this continue until the gap widened to the point that something had to give…either home prices had to fall or rents had to increase. In 2008, the bubble burst and home prices fell. While the present gap is not as large as it was during the height of the housing market bubble in 2006-07, we’re headed that way.
- CPI and St Louis Home Price Index are hitting bubble levels. Chart 4 shows the rate of change (year over year) in CPI and the St Louis home price index. The rate of change in both has already exceeded what in the past (with the exception of 1979 when it went a little higher) has triggered home prices to fall.
- Home price and interest rate increases are killing St Lous home affordability. Table 5 shows that currently, based upon median home prices and interest rates, one year of house payments (principal and interest only) take about 30% of the median household income for St Louis. In 2007, at the peak of the housing bubble, it was only 21% and in 2000, which many economists use as a “normal” or baseline year, it was 20%. So the real cost of a typical St Louis home to a typical St Louis family is about 50% higher now than normal.
Continue reading “Why St Louis Home Prices Are Going To Decline“
The short answer is yes. They decline every year as we head into winter due to the seasonal nature of the business. If you look at the first chart below which depicts the median price of homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market since 1998, you will notice a very consistent pattern of prices rising in the spring and summer, then declining in the fall and winter. For the most part, the other pattern you will see is that the peak each spring is higher than the spring before and the bottom each winter is higher than the winter before, but there are exceptions to that such as after the bubble burst in 2008.
So, as we head into the fall season, we can expect home prices to decline. The question is, given all that is going on in the economy, including mortgage interest rates in excess of 6%, will the decline be more than the typical “seasonal adjustment”? To address this, the first thing we can look at is the percentage decline we’ve seen in the recent past from the summer peak to September which is as follows:
- 2019 – Summer peak to September –10.9%
- 2020 – Summer peak to September – 0% (no change)
- 2021 -Summer peak to September –1.9%
- 2022 -Summer peak to September –10.2%
What this reveals is this years decline, while definitely larger than the last two years, is actually less than the decline in 2019 (which was a good market) so this doesn’t jump out as particularly alarming. I think it’s worth saying that we are no doubt going to have a market “correction” or “adjustment” at a minimum because home prices could not simply keep increasing like they have been so this years seasonal adjustment may just be a return to normal. Having said that though, since the “bottom” of the winter market price-wise doesn’t usually come until January or February, we will need to watch the next couple of months to see if this downward price trend remains consistent with historic norms or in fact picks up steam and looks like it’s headed for a bigger decline than normal. My guess is at this point it the latter. While I’m not a “gloom and doomer” in fact, I like to think of my self as an opportunist and see opportunities in challenging markets, I just think I’m being realistic. There are a lot of moving balls in the air right now with regard to our economy and more unknowns than certainties in my opinion.
We can’t underestimate the impact of interest rates either…
On May 12th the 30-year fixed rate mortgage interest rate hit 5.3%, the highest rates since June 2009, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey®. As the chart below illustrates, mortgage interest rate have declined the last two consecutive weeks falling to 5.10% yesterday, the lowest rate since April 28th.
There are more affordable options…
The chart I selected to show below also shows the mortgage interest rates for 15-year mortgages as well as something almost no one has had a reason to talk about for several years, adjustable rate mortgages (ARM’s). With mortgage interest rates as low as they were, ARM’s were rarely considered by a purchaser however, today they provide a more affordable option than a 30-year fixed mortgage. For example, the 5/1 arm shown on the chart below had a rate of 4.2% yesterday.
Mortgage Interest Rates – 30 and 15-Year Conventional Loans and 5/1 ARM Loan
(click on chart for live, interactive chart)
How ‘smart’ can a smart home be if its locks can’t tell you who is coming and going and when they came and went? In my opinion, that’s not a very ‘smart’ house. Nowadays, we use our phones for much more than talking to other people. To name a few, we use them for directions, email, and paying for groceries. So why wouldn’t we use them to remotely lock and unlock our doors too?
From my previous articles you might remember that one of the primary requirements in a smart home is either smart temperature control or a smart security feature. A smart lock meets the security feature requirement and it’s one of the simplest additions to your house. Many of these can be installed using the standard pre-drilled holes that likely already exist in your doors. Usually, in under 25 minutes, you can go from fumbling around for the keys to your door automatically unlocking as you approach.
Have you ever been running a little late to an appointment and get 10 minutes down the road only to wonder if you locked your door? Yeah, me too, but with a smart lock, you could just get to the next stoplight and check your phone to verify the lock status. If you did forget, no worries—just tap the lock icon on the phone app and problem solved.
Another great feature of most smart locks is knowing who accesses the house and when. This can be done either through the assigned app or individual user codes. For peace of mind, you can track who comes and goes.
One of my favorite features is the autolocking function that can be tied to arming your security system. You no longer need to walk around and check all your doors because the system will just lock all the doors when you arm your alarm. Of course, you’ll need a security system for this feature, but some smart locks can be programmed to lock automatically at preset times throughout the day. If you have toddlers, this is a great feature. Mine love randomly unlocking doors and not telling me, so without that feature, the door would remain unlocked until I notice it.
Do you own an Airbnb? These locks are great for creating temporary access codes for each paying guest. Just like magic, once their reservation is up the code no longer works. Overall, smart locks are a great addition to modern lifestyles and they’re an affordable addition to virtually anyone’s home security. Plus, you don’t need an engineering degree to install one.
Interested in knowing MORE about Smart Home tech? Contact the only Smart Home Certified CRS agent in the Greater St. Louis area. *
*Based upon actual knowledge the author has at the time of publication”;
Interested in knowing MORE about Smart Home tech? Contact the only Smart Home Certified CRS agent in the Greater St. Louis area*.
*Based upon actual knowledge the author has at the time of publication
Lately, I’ve noticed several articles questioning whether the kind of crazy real estate market we’ve in for a while now is reminiscent of the early 2000’s which lead to a housing bubble that eventually burst in 2008. Granted, even in St Louis where we tend to not see the market extremes one way or the other like the coasts do, one could get the idea that maybe we’re headed that way with buyer’s fighting over new listings and bidding wars that have homes often selling for over the list price. However, in my humble opinion, this market is very different than the 2000 – 2007 market and we are not headed to a crash at this point.
Before I go further…my disclaimer…
I’m not an economist and I didn’t even stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, I’m just a long-time real estate industry data junkie who has ridden the real estate roller coaster for 40+ years and have some thoughts on the current state of the market. While my comments may apply outside of our local market, my focus and commentary are on the St Louis housing market.
What’s different now from before…
[xyz-ips snippet=”Homes-For-Sale”]
Continue reading “Why St Louis Is Not Headed Toward Another Housing Market Bubble or Crash“
One of the many benefits to living in St Louis is it’s a very affordable place to live and much easier to be a homeowner than in most other major metro areas. Having said that, we do have areas, such as Ladue, Huntleigh, and Clayton to name a few where we do see home prices that are out of reach for most of the folks living here. One such example is a magnificent 10,000+ square foot Ladue manse that sold earlier this month. At a final sales price of $6,150,000, it is the highest-priced home sale in the REALTOR® MLS in more than 2 years.
See what $6 million gets you in a St Louis home by clicking here – be sure to click on the video to see the tour of this beautiful home.
[xyz-ips snippet=”St-Louis-Luxury-Homes-and-Condos-For-Sale”]
One of the benefits to living in St Louis we often hear about is how affordable it is compared with many other metro areas around the country. Granted, one of the things that contribute to the “affordability” is the price of homes but that doesn’t mean we don’t have areas with pricey real estate here. The list below is part of the list showing what the average price homes sold for in every municipality in the St Louis MSA during the past 12 months and reveals the five municipalities where the average home price exceeded $1 Million.
Leading the list is the relatively small, but expensive, Country Life Acres where homes in the past 12 months sold for an average of $1,621.564.
[xyz-ips snippet=”Homes-For-Sale”]
St Louis 5-County CORE Market’s Most Expensive Municipalities
(click on list to see entire current list)
Not only has it become common today for homes to sell as soon as they hit the market but receiving offers from multiple buyers and at prices that equal or even exceed the asking price is common as well. While this is an illustration of Economics 101, the rule and supply and demand, when the demand exceeds the supply (such as in the housing market in many price ranges and areas), prices increase this can also be a reminder of times past when home prices rose quickly for several years, then retreated rather abruptly. The most recent example of this, and arguably the worst during my 40 years in the real estate business, was the housing bubble that burst in 2008 sending home prices into a downward trend that lasted about 3 years.
So, are we headed to another housing bubble?
My focus is primarily on the St Louis housing market so I will focus on that but I will point out what I see with regard home prices, St Louis has a better outlook than at the national level.
[xyz-ips snippet=”Homes-For-Sale-and-Listings-With-Virtual-Tours”]
Continue reading “Have Home Prices Increased Too Much Too Fast? Is A Correction Coming?“
Homes became more affordable in Jefferson County and St Charles County during the first quarter of this year from the 4th quarter of 2019, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Research. As the table below shows, the affordability index for both those counties increased from the prior quarter as well as from the same quarter the prior year. Franklin County’s affordability index was the same for the 1st quarter of 2020 as the prior quarter but improved by 5% from a year ago. The two St Louis’s, the city and county, both saw decline in home affordability from both the prior quarter as well as the prior year.
Average wage earner can qualify to buy in 3 out of 5 Counties…
So while the city and county of St Louis saw a decline in home affordability, the average wage eaarner in those two areas can qualify to buy a home, as can an average wage earner in Franklin County.
St Louis Home Affordability – 1st Quarter 2020
Let me begin with this is not a political statement and the purpose of this site is not about politics but about real estate. Having said that, this morning I came across the plans for the housing market that Bernie Sanders is proposing if he is elected President which I had not seen before. Upon reviewing his plan (it is on his official site) I realized that while many of the components of it sound good (like “End homelessness and ensure fair housing for all”) many of his promises in this area sound like things that would negatively impact investors and the housing market as a whole.
The following are the Key Points to the Bernie Sanders housing plan from his website (I have included the complete list):
- End the housing crisis by investing $2.5 trillion to build nearly 10 million permanently affordable housing units.
- Protect tenants by implementing a national rent control standard, a “just-cause” requirement for evictions, and ensuring the right to counsel in housing disputes.
- Make rent affordable by making Section 8 vouchers available to all eligible families without a waitlist and strengthening the Fair Housing Act.
- Combat gentrification, exclusionary zoning, segregation, and speculation.
- End homelessness and ensure fair housing for all
- Revitalize public housing by investing $70 billion to repair, decarbonize, and build new public housing.
Under the “When Bernie is president, he will” section are some of the things he plans to do to accomplish the above goals (this list is rather extensive on his site so I have only included a sampling of the items that appear will negatively impact investors and homeowners):
- Enact a national cap on annual rent increases at no more than 3 percent or 1.5 times the Consumer Price Index (whichever is higher) to help prevent the exploitation of tenants at the hands of private landlords.
- Allow states and cities to pass even stronger rent control standards.
- Implement a “just-cause” requirement for evictions, which would allow a landlord to evict a tenant only for specific violations and prevent landlords from evicting tenants for arbitrary or retaliatory reasons.
- Place a 25 percent House Flipping tax on speculators who sell a non-owner-occupied property, if sold for more than it was purchased within 5 years of purchase.
- Impose a 2 percent Empty Homes tax on the property value of vacant, owned homes to bring more units into the market and curb the use of housing as speculative investment.
Again, this is not a political piece, but given the strong housing market we have enjoyed over the past several years, which has helped many Americans build equity and recover wealth lost during the housing bubble burst of 2008, I think it’s worth noting proposed plans, by any party or power, that could negatively impact the market. Also, these are just talking points from someone running for office, so whether it’s Bernie Sanders or any other candidate, or even the current President, Donald J. Trump, they can all have ideas but getting them implemented takes cooperation of Congress and that is not always so easy so it doesn’t mean any of their plans ever actually come to fruition.
Home affordability improved in the St. Louis metro area during the 3rd quarter, with 4 of the 7 largest counties seeing an improvement in their affordability index from the prior quarter and 5 of the 7 seeing an improvement in affordability from a year ago, according to the latest data from ATTOM Data Research.
The greatest improvement in affordability was in Franklin County.
As the table below shows, Franklin County saw a 12% improvement in housing affordability from the prior quarter and an 11% improvement from a year ago. Jefferson, St Charles and St Clair (IL) County saw improvements in affordability from the prior quarter as well.
St Louis County suffered the greatest decline in housing affordability.
St Louis County saw affordability decline 12% from the prior quarter and 10% from a year ago.
Home prices are outpacing wages in 5 of the 7 counties covered…
Continue reading “Home Affordability Improves In St Louis During Third Quarter“
You are probably saying I’m nuts to be saying that a home in St Louis costs less today than it did 13 years ago, back in 2006, but, note I said the “real cost” of a home. Since nearly all people buying a typical home in St Louis are going to do so with a mortgage, I think to really determine the cost of a home, and certainly, it’s affordability, we have to look deeper than just the price. Therefore, as the table below shows, I analyzed the cost of a home in St Louis during two periods of time, the most recent 5-year period and the 5-year period leading up to and including 2006 (the last year of the boom before the bust). In determining the real cost, I looked at the median price of homes sold but then also the mortgage interest rate at the time and the resulting payment.
As the table illustrates, the current cost of a median-priced home in St Louis, from a mortgage payment perspective, dropped 5.5% from a year ago thanks to lower mortgage interest rates which more than offset the increase in home prices. The impact of interest rates on the true cost of a home is further illustrated by looking that the change in the mortgage payment for a median-priced home in St Louis from 2014 to today which was an increase of 17.8% over the period. However, the median price of homes sold during the same period increased by 23.4%, over 30% more than the payment increased!
The real cost of a St Louis home today is even less than in 2006
Now, to go one step further, if you look at the second table below, which is for the period of July 2001 through July 2006, you will see that, while the median price of homes in St Louis was lower, mortgage interest rates were much higher. In fact, the median mortgage interest rate from 2001 through 2006 was 6.245% while it was just 4.0% from 2014 through 2019. This resulted in the mortgage payment of $1,084.26 on a median-priced home in St Louis in 2006, $76.56 per month more (7.5%) than today’s mortgage payment on a median-priced home in St Louis.
Continue reading “The Real Cost of a Home In St Louis Is Lower Now Than It Was In 2006“
St Louis may be the 8th most affordable metro area in the country to buy a home, but it also has areas where home prices are much higher as well. The median price of homes sold in the St Louis metro area during the past 12-months is $184,500 however the average price of homes sold within the past 12-months has exceeded this in 85 of the 205 municipalities within the St Louis MSA.
Below is our list of the 30 cities with the highest average price of homes sold during the past 12 months. St Louis County has the majority of the most expensive cities at 22 (although, in all fairness, St Louis County is also chopped up into a ridiculous number municipalities) followed by 7 in St Charles County and 1 in Warren County.
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St Louis MSA’s Most Expensive Cities
Home affordability declined in the City of St Louis from a 98 on the affordability index in the first quarter to an index of 73 this quarter, for a decline of 25% in home affordability in the City of St Louis, according to the latest data from ATTOM Data Research. In neighboring St Louis County, the affordability was 116 in the first quarter and 89 the 2nd quarter, for a decline of 23%. On the affordability index, anything under 100 indicates homes are less affordable than the historical average and anything over 100 indicates homes are more affordable than the historical average.
Homes became more affordable in Jefferson County and Madison County, IL. during the 2nd quarter. As the table below shows, Jefferson County improved from an already good 105 on the affordability index for the 1st quarter to 108 during the 2nd quarter and Madison County, IL from 103 to 106.
The affordability index takes into account the median home price for the county as well as the median wages for the county, computing what percentage of wages it takes for people in that county to buy a home. In spite of the decrease in affordability in the City of St Louis, it still takes the small percentage of wages (21.7%) to buy a home there. The national average is 33.9%.
Home prices are outpacing wages in 4 of the 7 counties covered…
During the first quarter of this year, homebuyers in the City of St Louis needed to spend a median of just 16.9% of their annual wages to buy a median-priced home, according to data just released by ATTOM Data Services. This makes the City of St Louis the most affordable county to buy a home in the St Louis area. As the table below shows, St Charles County, where it takes 37.7% of annual wages to buy a median-priced home is the least affordable county for 1st quarter 2019.
On a positive note, St Charles County had an affordability index of 101 for the quarter, meaning that homes were slightly more affordable there than the historic average. St Clair County had the best affordability index at 103 and the City of St Louis had the worst at 93.
St Louis Area Home Affordability – 1st Quarter 2019
According to a report just released this morning by ATTOM Data Research, it’s cheaper to buy a home than rent in 6 of 8 St Louis metro area counties covered in the report. The data reported also shows, however, that home prices are rising faster than rents in all of the counties, a trend that, if it continues, could make buying a home a less affordable option in the future. The data also shows, on a postiive note, that in 6 of 8 counties wages are rising faster than rents. The counties are split when it comes to wages vs home prices however, with wages rising faster than home prices in 4 and home prices rising faster than wages in the other 4.
Affordabilty is determined by the percentage of wages necessary to purchase a home in a given County. Based upon this criteria, the most affordable county to buy a home is the City of St Louis at 20.1%, followed by Madison County, IL at 27.3% and then St Louis County at 27.6%. The least affordable county to buy a home on the list is St Charles County at 45.3%
St Louis Home Affordability – 2018
One of the nice things about St Louis has always been that it’s an affordable place to live and an affordable place to own a home. However, as St Louis home prices, and mortgage interest rates, continue to increase, home affordability in St Louis has declined.
As the table below, which is based on data from ATTOM Data Research, shows, all of the counties reported on in the State of Missouri saw home affordability decline during the 3rd quarter with the exception of Jackson County (Kansas City). All of the counties had a decline in home affordability from a year ago with St Louis County seeing the biggest decline at 11%.
St Louis Home Affordability – 3rd Quarter 2018
St Charles Homeowners spend the largest percentage of income on a home…
In St Charles County, home buyers spend, on average, 41.3% of their income to buy a home, the highest percentage of the reported counties in Missouri. In the city of St Louis, the percentage of income spent on housing was just 21.9%.
Percentage of Annualized Wages Necessary to Buy A Home
