St Louis New Home Construction Still On The Rise -Perimeter counties are the big winners

There were 4,468 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during June, an increase of 5.9% from a year ago when there were 4,219 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).  However, the increase in new home construction activity was not shared equally around the St Louis area as the counties of St Charles, Jefferson, and Franklin all saw double-digit increases while the other four counties saw declines.


  

St Louis New Home Building Permits – June 2020

St Louis New Home Building Permits - June 2020

 

 

St Louis New Home Construction Trend Cools Slight But Activity Increases in St Charles and Jefferson County

The new home construction trend in St. Louis during January slowed just a bit with a total of 4,426 new home permits being issued for the 12-month period ended January 31, 2020, a slight decline of about 1% from a year ago when there were 4,447 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri.

As the table below shows, 5 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago.  Two of the three counties with the most new home activity, St Charles County and Jefferson County, both saw double-digit increases in permit activity from the prior 12-month period.

  

St Louis New Home Building Permits – January 2020

St Louis New Home Building Permits - January 2020

 

Downward Trend In New Home Construction In St Louis Eases In September

New home construction in St. Louis continued its decline, although at a lower rate, with 4,286 new home permits issued for the 12-month period ended September 30, 2019, a decline of 8.05% from a year ago when there were 4,661 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri.  This is an improvement from the 12-month period ended August 31, 2019, when the decline was nearly 10% from the year before (9.74%).

As the table below shows, 4 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago.  Franklin County again suffered the biggest loss at 43.82% making it the 8th month in a row Franklin County has seen a loss.   At the other end of the spectrum, Warren County again had the largest increase at 22.22% and this marks the 9th month in a row of increases for the county.   For only the second time in the past 12-months, St Charles County saw an increase in new home permits issued during the period with a 3.79% increase.

  

St Louis New Home Building Permits – September 2019

St Louis New Home Building Permits - September 2019

 

New Home Construction Down From A Year Ago In 5 of 7 St Louis Area Counties

New home construction in St. Louis continues to decline with 4,244 new home permits issued in August 2019 for the St Louis area, a decline of 9.74% from a year ago when there were 4,702 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri.

As the table below shows, 5 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago.  Franklin County has suffered the biggest loss at 44.13% and Warren County has seen the largest increase at 15.57%.

  

St Louis New Home Building Permits – August 2019

St Louis New Home Building Permits - Aug 2019

 

St Louis Area New Home Construction Continues To Decline In Most Areas

For the 12-month period ended April 30, 2019, there were building permits issued for 757 new homes in St Louis County, a decline of 22.80% from the prior 12-month period, according to the latest data from the St Louis HBA.  As the table below shows, St Charles County saw a decline of 6.38% during the same period. In February of this year, only two counties showed a downward trend in building permits, but in March that grew to 4 counties and for April, 5 of the 7 counties we are reporting on, show a decline in new home building permits. Warren County continues to show growth and an upward trend in new home construction with an increase of 20.07% in building permits during the most recent 12-month period from the prior 12-month period.

  

St Louis New Home Building Permits – April 2019

St Louis New Home Building Permits - April 2019

New Home Construction Trend In St Louis Is Down In St Louis and St Charles Counties

For the 12-month period ended February 28, 2019, there were building permits issued for 785 new homes in St Louis County, a decline of 21.11% from the prior 12-month period, according to the latest data from the St Louis HBA.  As the table below shows, St Charles County saw a decline of 13.05% during the same period however the other counties reported on by the St Louis HBA are all showing increased new home building activity for the period.  From a percentage standpoint, Warren County saw the biggest increase at 30.04%.

  

St Louis New Home Building Permits – February 2019

St Louis New Home Building Permits - February 2019

St Louis New Home Construction Continues To Decline

There were 4,471 building permits issued for new homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended January 31, 2019, a decline of 5.20% from the prior 12-month period when there were 4,716 permits issued, according to information just released by the Home Builders Association of St Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).

As the table below shows, St Charles County continues to see the largest decline in new home construction with 1,489 new home permits issued in the most recent 12-month period, down 13.03% from the prior 12 month period. Four counties in the St Louis area have seen gains in permits, with Warren County being the big winner in terms of percentage increase with nearly a 30 percent increase in new home permits for the period!

  

St Louis New Home Building Permits Issued – Jan 2019

St Louis New Home Building Permits Issued - Jan 2019

 

St Louis Area New Home Construction In 2018 Declines

There were 4,140 building permits issued for new homes in the St Louis area during 2018, a decline of 3.16% from the year before when there were 4,275 permits issued, according to information just released by the Home Builders Association of St Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).  The number of permits issued for new homes during 2018 was just slightly down from 2016.

As the table below shows, St Charles County has seen the largest decline in new home construction with 1,499 new home permits issued in 2018, down 12.85% from the year before and decline of 24.48% from 2016 when there were 1,985 permits issued.  Franklin County, Warren County and the city of St Louis all had significant double-digit gains in building permits issued during 2018 from the year before.

  

St Louis New Home Building Permits Issued – 2016-2018

St Louis New Home Building Permits Issued - 2016-2018

 

New Home Construction Trend In St Louis Flat Overall

There were 4,642 new home building permits issued for the 7 counties in the St Louis area covered by the St Louis HBA during the 12-month period ended August 31, 2018, just 2 more (0.04%) than the 4,640 that were issued during the prior 12-month period, according to data from the St Louis HBA.

This would indicate that perhaps the new home building market has peaked for the time being which, given that this is the best report for this 12-month period since August 2007 when there were 5,706 permits issued in the prior 12 months, it’s not bad.

St Charles County’s Loss is Franklin County’s gain…

As the table below, which shows the building permit activity by county, illustrates, St Charles County has seen nearly a 14% decline in building permits in the past 12-months from the prior period, while Franklin County has seen nearly a 42% increase.  Granted, 32.9% of all the building permits issued in the 7-county area were issued in St Charles County, but a year ago 38.3% of all the permits were issued in St Charles County.

New Home Building Permits – St Louis Area

New Home Building Permits - St Louis Area

 

 

St Louis Area New Home Construction In Past 12 Months At Same Pace As Prior 12 Overall; St Charles County Down Nearly 20 Percent Though

As the table below shows, for the most recent 12-months that new home building permit data is available for from the Home Builders Association of St Louis & Eastern Missouri, there have been 4,610 new home building permits issued in the 7 counties they report on.  This is just slightly less than was issued for the prior 12-month period ending April 2017, when there were 4,625 permits issued.

St Charles County New Home Building Permit Trend Continues to Fall…

There were 1,555 new home permits issued in St Charles County in the most recent 12-month period, a decline of 18.54% from the prior 12-month period.  Year to date through April, there have been 447 new home building permits issued in St Charles County, a decline of 27% from the same time last year and a 35.2% decline from the same time in 2016.

St Charles County housing market doesn’t appear to be the problem

The overall real estate market in St Charles County is doing pretty well with 6,013 homes sold during the 12-month period ended April 30, 2018.  That is a 2.5% decline from the prior 12 month period but still shows the demand is there meaning that decline in new home building permits is most likely not market driven but perhaps more related to lack of available ground.

  

New Home Construction Activity Up Slightly In St Louis Area – St Charles County Losing Steam

New home construction, based upon building permits issued, is up overall for the 7-county area covered in St Louis by the Home Builders Association of St Louis and Eastern Missouri (HBA). For the most recent 12-month period reported for this area, through the end of February 2018, there have been 4,720 single family permits issue versus 4,579 for the prior 12-month period, an increase of 3.08%.

As the table below shows, 5 of the 7 counties reported on by the HBA have seen double-digit increases in new home construction during the past 12-months, Lincoln County and St Charles County being the exceptions.  St Charles County has suffered the most, with a double-digit decrease in home sales.  The St Charles decline is likely at least partially contributed to a lack of developed lots.

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New Home Building Permits – St Louis Area

New Home Building Permits - St Louis Area

New Home Construction In St Louis Area Trending Upward In Most Areas – St Charles County Sees Decline

New home construction in the St Louis area is off to a good start for 2018 with a total of 326 building permits for new homes being issued during January for the 7-county St Louis area reported on by the Home Builders Association of Eastern Missouri.  This permit activity in January represents an 11% increase over the activity in January 2017 when there were 293 new home permits issued.  During the month of January 2018, 4 of 7 counties saw an increase in building permits from January 2017 (Jefferson County +26%, Franklin County +143%, Warren County +1%, St Louis City +371%) while the remaining 3 saw declines (St Louis County -25%, St Charles County -10%, Lincoln County -29%).

It takes more than a month for a trend…

Just like I often comment with regard to home prices and sales, looking at a single month of activity really does not paint the whole picture and, while it may be a good “leading-indicator” of where things are headed, it’s not going to accurately depict a trend.  For this, I believe looking at the past 12-month period and comparing it to the prior 12-month period is more accurate.  It takes into account the seasonal fluctuations that occur and adjust for unseasonal weather during a given month that could skew the data if just looking at a one-month period.  The table belows the total building permits for the 12-month period ending January 31, 2018 and comparies that activity to the prior 12-month period for each of the 7-counties reported on.   As you can see, five of the counties have a double-digit increase in new home building permits issued from the prior 12-month period while St Charles County shows a double-digit decline, and Lincoln County a slight decline.

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New Home Building Permits- St Louis Area – January 2018

New Home Building Permits- St Louis Area - January 2018

St Louis new home construction slips in August still up from a year ago

St Louis New Home - Dennis Norman, St Louis REALTORSt Louis new home construction activity decreased in August 2013 with 311 building permits for new homes being issued in the St Louis metro area (the area served by the Home Builders Association of St Louis and Eastern Missouri) a 9.9 percent decrease from the month before and is an increase of 8.7 percent from August 2012 when there were 286 building permits issued for new homes, according to data published by the Home Builders Association of St Louis and Eastern Missouri.

St Louis home building is making some headway toward recovery by climbing out of the tough it hit in 2009 however, as the chart below shows, there is still a long way to go to get back to the level of activity from 2003 through 2006 when there were over 1,000 permits per month issued. (see chart below for 10 year history)

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