St Louis New Home Construction Declines In March In 5 Counties But On The Rise In 2

There were 4,506 building permits issued for new single-family homes in the St Louis area during March, an increase of 4.55% from a year ago when there were 4,310 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).  However, the increase in new home construction activity was not shared equally around the St Louis area and, in fact, really only favored St Charles County and Jefferson County.

Of the seven counties reported on by the St Louis HBA, 5 saw a decline in building permits from a year ago with Lincoln County seeing the biggest loss at over 25%, and St Charles County was the big winner where the number of new home building permits in March increased nearly 25% from the same month last year.

St Louis New Home Building Permits – March 2020

St Louis New Home Building Permits - March 2020

 

 

New Homes Sales In 2019 Drop From Year Before In Midwest

There were 70,000 new homes sold in the Midwest Region of the United States during 2019, a decline of 7.2% from 2018 when there were 76,000 new homes sold, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

As the table below shows, there were 40,000 new homes for sale in the Mideast at the end of 2019, which translates into roughly a 7 month supply of new homes for sale.

New Homes Sold In Midwest – 2018-2019

(in thousands)

New Homes Sold In Midwest - 2018-2019

  

New Home Construction Trend In St Louis Remains Steady In October

New home construction in St. Louis during October held at about the same trend as September with 4,289 new home permits issued for the 12-month period ended October 31, 2019, a decline of 8.04% from a year ago when there were 4,664 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri.  This is about the same as September when the 12-month trend was down 8.05% from the prior 12-month period.

As the table below shows, 4 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago.  This is the same as last month, with the same four counties on the decline.  For the 9th month in a row, Franklin County suffered the biggest loss at 41.31%.  At the other end of the spectrum, St Charles County had the largest increase at 7.55% and took removed Warren County from the number one slot after Warren County had 9 consecutive months of the highest growth in permits.

  

St Louis New Home Building Permits – October 2019

St Louis New Home Building Permits - October 2019

 

New Home Construction Down From A Year Ago In 5 of 7 St Louis Area Counties

New home construction in St. Louis continues to decline with 4,244 new home permits issued in August 2019 for the St Louis area, a decline of 9.74% from a year ago when there were 4,702 permits issued, according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri.

As the table below shows, 5 of the 7 counties covered in the report saw a decline in new home permits from a year ago.  Franklin County has suffered the biggest loss at 44.13% and Warren County has seen the largest increase at 15.57%.

  

St Louis New Home Building Permits – August 2019

St Louis New Home Building Permits - Aug 2019

 

St Louis New Home Construction Slips Again In May

For the 12-month period ended May 31, 2019, there were building permits issued for 300 new homes in Jefferson County, a decline of nearly 26% from the prior 12-month period according to the latest data from the Home Builders Association of St. Louis & Eastern Missouri.  For the same period, there were permits issued for 758 new homes in St Louis County, a decline of 23.50% from the prior 12-month period.

Warren County saw a double-digit percentage increase in building permits again this period, and the City of St Louis again had an increase.

  

St Louis New Home Building Permits – May 2019

St Louis New Home Building Permits - May 2019

New Home Construction Trending Downward in Over Half The St Louis Area Counties

For the 12-month period ended March 31, 2019, there were building permits issued for 748 new homes in St Louis County, a decline of 23.60% from the prior 12-month period, according to the latest data from the St Louis HBA.  As the table below shows, St Charles County saw a decline of 11.23% during the same period.  Last month, those were the only two counties showing a downward trend, but, this month, Franklin County and the City of St Louis have also seen new home construction trend downward. Warren County again showed the greatest upward trend in new home construction with an increase of 23.66% in building permits during the most recent 12-month period from the prior 12-month period.

  

St Louis New Home Building Permits – March 2019

St Louis New Home Building Permits - March 2019

St Louis New Home Construction Continues To Decline

There were 4,471 building permits issued for new homes in the St Louis area during the 12-month period ended January 31, 2019, a decline of 5.20% from the prior 12-month period when there were 4,716 permits issued, according to information just released by the Home Builders Association of St Louis & Eastern Missouri (St Louis HBA).

As the table below shows, St Charles County continues to see the largest decline in new home construction with 1,489 new home permits issued in the most recent 12-month period, down 13.03% from the prior 12 month period. Four counties in the St Louis area have seen gains in permits, with Warren County being the big winner in terms of percentage increase with nearly a 30 percent increase in new home permits for the period!

  

St Louis New Home Building Permits Issued – Jan 2019

St Louis New Home Building Permits Issued - Jan 2019

 

New Home Prices Have Increased At Higher Rate Than Overall Housing Market Over Past 15 Years

I had lunch yesterday with a long-time friend who is a St Louis home-builder who shared with me the continually rising costs of construction he faces.  Our conversation was consistent with conversations I’ve had with other builders as well, who cite a variety of things responsible for the ever-increasing costs of new home construction.  The areas most often mentioned relate to regulatory and compliance issues,  material prices as well as rising labor costs.  According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), the average cost to build a new home has inreased 56% over the past 15 years.  According to the NAHB, over the past 15 years construction costs accounted for a median of 57% of the cost of a new home.

The gap between new home prices and existing home prices widens..

As the chart below illustrates, over the past 15 years, the median price of a new home has increased 68% while, as the bottom chart shows, the price of homes in the U.S. (according to the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index) has only increased 43.6% during the same period.  During the past 15 years, new home prices have increased 56% more than home prices overall.

Median Sales Price For New Homes Sold In The U.S. – Past 15 YearsMedian Sales Price For New Homes Sold In The U.S. - Past 15 Years
S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index – Past 15 Years
S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index - Past 15 Years

New Home Construction Trend In St Louis Flat Overall

There were 4,642 new home building permits issued for the 7 counties in the St Louis area covered by the St Louis HBA during the 12-month period ended August 31, 2018, just 2 more (0.04%) than the 4,640 that were issued during the prior 12-month period, according to data from the St Louis HBA.

This would indicate that perhaps the new home building market has peaked for the time being which, given that this is the best report for this 12-month period since August 2007 when there were 5,706 permits issued in the prior 12 months, it’s not bad.

St Charles County’s Loss is Franklin County’s gain…

As the table below, which shows the building permit activity by county, illustrates, St Charles County has seen nearly a 14% decline in building permits in the past 12-months from the prior period, while Franklin County has seen nearly a 42% increase.  Granted, 32.9% of all the building permits issued in the 7-county area were issued in St Charles County, but a year ago 38.3% of all the permits were issued in St Charles County.

New Home Building Permits – St Louis Area

New Home Building Permits - St Louis Area

 

 

St Louis Area New Home Construction In Past 12 Months At Same Pace As Prior 12 Overall; St Charles County Down Nearly 20 Percent Though

As the table below shows, for the most recent 12-months that new home building permit data is available for from the Home Builders Association of St Louis & Eastern Missouri, there have been 4,610 new home building permits issued in the 7 counties they report on.  This is just slightly less than was issued for the prior 12-month period ending April 2017, when there were 4,625 permits issued.

St Charles County New Home Building Permit Trend Continues to Fall…

There were 1,555 new home permits issued in St Charles County in the most recent 12-month period, a decline of 18.54% from the prior 12-month period.  Year to date through April, there have been 447 new home building permits issued in St Charles County, a decline of 27% from the same time last year and a 35.2% decline from the same time in 2016.

St Charles County housing market doesn’t appear to be the problem

The overall real estate market in St Charles County is doing pretty well with 6,013 homes sold during the 12-month period ended April 30, 2018.  That is a 2.5% decline from the prior 12 month period but still shows the demand is there meaning that decline in new home building permits is most likely not market driven but perhaps more related to lack of available ground.

  

New Home Construction On The Rise In Warren County And Other Outlying Counties

New home construction in the St Louis and surrounding areas for the first three quarters of this year is up slightly from the same time last year, according to the latest permit data from the Home Builders Association of Greater St Louis.  However, as the table below shows, only 4 of the 7 counties reviewed had an increase in building permits while the other three, including the county with the greatest number of building permits, St Charles County, saw a decline.

 

St Louis Area New Home Building Permits – Year to Date Through September 30, 2017

St Louis Area New Home Building Permits - Year to Date Through September 30, 2017

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Characteristics of New Homes Sold In 2016

The U.S. Department of Commerce just released it’s 2016 CHARACTERISTICS OF NEW HOUSING in which it revealed features, amenities, prices, sizes, etc of new homes built and sold during 2016 in the United States.  You can see all the data in the complete report for the U.S. by clicking on the link however I’m going to just focus on the homes built here in the midwest region.

There were 69,000 new homes sold (single-family) here in the Midwest Region of the United States, down from a peak of 205,000 in 2005.  Eleven percent of the single-family homes sold were attached homes (8,000) and the remaining eighty-nine-percent (62,000) were detached homes, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Facts and Figures For New Homes Sold In The Midwest during 2016:

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2016 Characteristics of New Housing – Complete Report
Continue reading “Characteristics of New Homes Sold In 2016

Midwest Home Builders Optimism About New Home Market Hits Record High in March

Happy home builders?  Wow, I remember those days, back before the real estate bubble and market collapse, boy were those the days!  Well, the good news is, while builders still have their challenges, according to the latest Housing Market Index (HMI) from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), builders in the Midwest are more optimistic about the new home market than they have ever been! (or, at least since the beginning of the regional level index records that are published).

The NAHB Housing Market Index is based upon results of a survey done of the builders and other members of the National Association of Home Builders in which members are asked to rate market conditions in 3 ways:

  1. The sale of new homes at the present time
  2. How they feel about selling new homes over the coming six months
  3. The traffic of prospective buyers through their new home displays and developments.

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New Homes For Sale (or sold in past 12 Months) Throughout St Louis Area – Interactive Map

New Home Construction In Midwest Surges in April

New Home Construction in the Midwest really heated up during the month of may with construction beginning during the month on new single-family homes a the annual rate of 126,000 homes, an increase of 43.2% from March and an increase of 15.6% from April 2014, according to newly released date from the U.S. Commerce Department and U.S. Census Bureau.  During the month of April, new homes were completed at the annual rate of 128,000 homes, an increase of 50.6% from March and an increase of 28.0% from a year ago.  Building permits issued for new homes did not keep pace with new construction and were issued at the annual rate of 100,000 homes which is still an increase of 1% from the month before and an increase of 5.3% from April 2014.

National Association of Home Builders Chairman, Tom Woods, a builder from right here in Missouri (Blue Springs) said “Our builders tell us that consumers are slowly returning to the market” and added, “This month’s report shows release of pent-up demand and evidence of a sustainable housing recovery.”

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