By Dennis Norman, on March 4th, 2024 As the table and charts below illustrate, the St. Louis Metropolitatn Area (MSA) has undergone significant demographic shifts over the past 50 years, marked by a stark contrast between the population trends in the City of St. Louis and its surrounding counties.
St Louis MSA and Major Counties Population 1970-2022
The decline in the City of St. Louis’s population sharply contrasts with the growth in surrounding counties. During the same period that St. Charles County witnessed a 345% increase and the St. Louis MSA as a whole saw nearly a 60% rise, the City of St. Louis experienced nearly a 70% drop in population.
Over the last 50 years, the St. Louis MSA has undergone significant shifts in its population, characterized by substantial declines in the City of St. Louis and remarkable growth in suburban counties. This trend can largely be attributed to a combination of factors, including urban blight, which is characterized by the deterioration and abandonment of buildings, leading to a diminished quality of life and decreased property values. The escalation of crime rates further compounded the city’s challenges, rendering it less appealing for families and individuals in search of safe, stable environments. Furthermore, governance issues, marked by inefficient public services and policies that failed to effectively address the needs of urban residents, have also contributed to the population decline. These factors, coupled with the allure of suburban living—offering more spacious living conditions, better educational facilities, and a perceived higher level of safety—have propelled the demographic shift away from the city center and towards the suburbs.
St Louis MSA and City of St Louis Population – 1970 – 2022 Chart
(click on chart for live interactive chart)
St Louis Major Counties Population- 1970 – 2022 Chart
(click on chart for live interactive chart)
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By Dennis Norman, on April 12th, 2020 While we are in the midst of the 2020 census, the U.S. Census Bureau released its population growth estimates for metropolitan statistical areas (MSA’s) in the U.S. which revealed the St Louis MSA saw a population increase of just 0.6% from 2010 through 2019. As the table below shows, the population of the St Louis MSA in 2010 was 2,787,751 and in 2019 it was 2,803,228, an increase of 15,477 people during the 9-year period or 0.6%. Overall, the United States saw a population increase of 6.3% during the same period and the population of MSAs across the country saw an increase of 7.5%. In terms of the rate of population increase for MSAs from 2010-2019, St Louis ranked 283rd out of 384 MSA’s.
St Louis MSA Population Change 2010-2019
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By Dennis Norman, on June 21st, 2018 The St Louis 5-county core had a total population of 2,027,996 in 2017, up from 2,000,405 in 2010. The population increase os 27,591 represents a very modest population increase of just 1.36% for the 7-year period, according to the latest date from the U.S. Census Bureau. As the table below shows, the number of Asian people in St Louis grew by 11,913 during the period, an amount equal to 43% of the total St Louis population growth.
The St Louis 5-county core consists of the city of St Louis and the counties of St Louis, St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin. As shown below, three of the five counties experienced a growth in population from 2010 to 2017 with St Charles having the greatest growth at over 8.5%. The city of St Louis experienced the largest population decline with a loss of about 3.5% of its population during the 7-year period.
Another interesting tidbit in the data below is the growth in the male population in the St Louis 5-county core. During this period, the male population increased by 1.6% while the female population increased just 1.14%. While it may seem that significant, that is a 40% higher growth rate for males.
Continue reading “St Louis Area Population Growth Nearly Flat But Asians and Males on The Rise“
By Dennis Norman, on May 17th, 2018 The St Louis metro area has seen some population growth over the last few decades but not nearly as much as many other areas. From 1975 until last year, the population of the St Louis MSA increased 12.3% from 2,500,100 in 1975 to 2,807,338 in 2017. Of the major counties in Missouri that make up the St Louis MSA, St Charles County gained the most population increasing 248% during the same period. As the table below shows, 4 of the 5 major counties covered saw an increase in population from 1975 to 2017, although St Louis County’s increase was a rather lackluster 3.3%. Even St Louis County’s modest increase looks good when compared with the city of St Louis that lost 40% of its population during the period.
City of St Louis’ loss is St Charles County gain…
As the table below illustrates, St Charles County gained 281,700 people from 1975 through 2017 while the city of St Louis lost 205,474. Granted, not everyone that left the city of St Louis moved to St Charles County, but there is a lot of “shuffling of the population” that occurs here with movement from one area to another within St Louis as the population shifts. As a result, we end up with things such as the triple-digit increase in population in St Charles County and the city of St Louis losing nearly half of its population, while the overall metro area just had a modest gain.
How we compare to others…
To see how St Louis fared with other similar-sized areas, I checked the population history for the Davidson County Tennessee (Nashville) and Mecklenburg County North Carolina (Charlotte). Below is what I found:
- Davidson County TN – 49.5% population growth from 1975 to 2017 increasing from 462,600 to 691,243.
- Mecklenburg County NC – 185% population growth during the same period increasing from 377,400 to 1,076,837
So, while smaller, St Charles, Jefferson, and Franklin County’s population growth outpaced Davidson County and just St Charles County managed to outperform Mecklenburg County.
In the coming days, I’ll take a look at how population change has affected home prices and sales.
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St Louis Population – 1975 – 2017
(click on the table below for live charts showing complete data for each area)
By Dennis Norman, on July 6th, 2017 Yesterday, I did an article about the population shift in St Louis in which I included data showing the the city of St Louis has lost population every year for the past six years (the period covered in my article) while St Charles County and Jefferson County experienced population growth every year during the period. So, today, I decided to see what has happened with regard to home values in these counties and whether anything value-wise seems tied to the population shift.
Below is a 10-year chart, showing the median price per foot (one of the most accurate ways to look at home prices) for each of the 5-counties that make up the St Louis core-market. As the chart reveals, there doesn’t necessarily seem to be any correlation between home appreciation and population shift. Below is a quick analysis:
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Continue reading “Is There a Connection Between St Louis Population Shift and Home Prices?“
By Dennis Norman, on July 5th, 2017 Recently, the U.S. Census Bureau released the 2016 population estimates revealing that the city of St Louis continues to lose residents while outlying counties like St Charles, Jefferson and Franklin grow and St Louis county remains relatively stagnant.
As the table below shows, over the past 6 years the city of St Louis population declined almost 2.5% while St Charles County grew by nearly 8.5%. Both St Charles County and Jefferson County have enjoyed annual growth in population since 2010 while Franklin County grew every year but one. St Louis County has followed a different pattern than the rest with 3 years of growth, a small decline in 2014, 2015 went back to 2013 levels nearly then 2016 gave up everything gained in the prior years falling back to a population lower than in 2010. St Louis city has continued to decline in population year after year for the periods shown.
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St Louis Population Trends 2010-2016
By Dennis Norman, on June 12th, 2017 In the real estate community there are frequent discussions about the millennial’s and their impact on the real estate market. Since their generation makes up the largest share of the population presently, their interest, or lack thereof, in homeownership definitely has the attention of us in the real estate industry. The consensus among many in the real estate industry is that millennials don’t value homeownership as much as their baby boomer parents did, and do, however, they don’t necessarily have anything against the idea. The millennial generation seems to be more driven by lifestyle and flexibility than whether or not they own where they live.
With this in mind, today I wanted to look at the median age of the city of St Louis as well as the surrounding counties to see where the younger people are migrating as well as look at the homeownership rates for those areas. While I don’t know that there is a relationship between the median age of an area and the homeownership rate necessarily, there well could be.
The City of St Louis is where the young people are…
As the map below shows, the city of St Louis, with a median age of it’s population of 34.6 years, has the youngest population followed by St Charles county with a median age of 37.4 years.
The City of St Louis has the lowest homeownership rate by far…
As the second map below shows, the city of St Louis also has the lowest homeownership rate at 47.8%, however, St Charles County, the county with the second youngest median age has one of the highest homeownership rates in the area at 81.34%.
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Continue reading “The City Of St Louis Has Youngest Population and Lowest Homeownership Rate In Area“
By Dennis Norman, on May 22nd, 2013  St Louis did not make the list of the 15 fastest growing large cities just released by the U.S. Census Bureau and, in fact, no city in Missouri made the list. The list was based upon the 2012 population estimates just released (literally about 1 minute ago) which showed, from 2011 – 2012, the State of Missouri barely had any population growth (0.22 percent). In the St Louis area, as the table below shows which compares the 2010 population for cities and counties throughout the St Louis area to the 2011 and newly released 2012 estimates, the St Louis population continues a trend started years ago of shifting to the west. The city of St Louis lost population again in 2012 while neighboring counties to the west, namely St Louis County and St Charles County, gained population. Within St Louis County there was also a shift to the west in general with many north county cities such as and several mid county cities losing population while many west county cities saw a population increase. Continue reading “St Louis Population Continues To Shift West“
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