Changes in the Mortgage Industry; St Louis Mortgage Interest Rate Update

After the problems we have seen over the past few years in the real estate, mortgage and banking industries, it is not surprising we have seen significant changes in the loan process making it more challenging for a home-buyer to obtain a mortgage. Some of the changes borrowers see when they attempt to obtain a mortgage to buy or refinance a home include:

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St Louis Mortgage Delinquency Rate Declined Over Ten Percent In Past Year

dennis-norman-st-louis-realtor-During the third quarter of 2012, 3.71 percent of St Louis homeowners with a mortgage were 60+ days delinquent on their mortgage, a slight decline from the prior quarter when the rate was 3.88 percent and a decline of over 10 percent from a year ago when the St Louis mortgage delinquency rate was 4.13 percent, according to TransUnion.  This marks the third consecutive quarter the St Louis mortgage delinquency rate has declined.

St. Louis mortgage delinquency rates are significantly below the national delinquency rate which was 5.41 percent in the third quarter of this year.  Additionally, the St Louis mortgage delinquency rates are falling faster than the national average as the national mortgage delinquency rate was down just shy of 8 percent in the past year, well behind St Louis’ ten percent decline.

 

 

Mortgage loan delinquencies drop to lowest rate since 2009

st-louis-realtor-mortgage-delinquency-rateMore good news on the housing market! The national mortgage delinquency rate (borrowers that are 60 or more days past due) declined for the first 3 months of 2012, coming in at 5.78 percent according to a report issued by TransUnion. This is after increases in the delinquency rate in the prior 2 quarters and is the lowest rate since the 1st quarter of 2009. Continue reading “Mortgage loan delinquencies drop to lowest rate since 2009

Mortgage delinquency rate increases for first time since 2009

Dennis Norman St Louis RealtorThis morning, Trans Union released a report showing the national mortgage delinquency rate (the rate of borrowers 60 or more days past due) increased to 5.88 percent (from 5.82 percent in the 2nd quarter) during the third quarter of 2011, after falling in the previous quarter by the largest rate in two years. This is the first time mortgage delinquency rates have increased since the end of 2009. Continue reading “Mortgage delinquency rate increases for first time since 2009

Mortgage delinquency rate declines by largest rate in two years

Dennis Norman St Louis RealtorThis morning, Trans Union released a report showing the national mortgage delinquency rate (the rate of borrowers 60 or more days past due) decreased for the sixth consecutive quarter, dropping to 5.82% at the end of the second quarter in 2011 which is a 5.98 percent from the prior quarter, the largest quarterly decrease in 2 years. Continue reading “Mortgage delinquency rate declines by largest rate in two years

Mortgage loan delinquencies have largest quarterly decline in four years

Dennis Norman St LouisOn the heels of the post I just did on shadow inventory, it is good to see a positive report on mortgage delinquencies! According to a report issued by TransUnion, mortgage loan delinquencies in the third quarter of this year declined 3.45 percent to 6.44 percent, marking the largest quarterly decline since the fourth quarter of 2006.

Continue reading “Mortgage loan delinquencies have largest quarterly decline in four years

Rental housing market weathering storm; more tenants former homeowners

According to a survey just released by Transunion, Landlord’s and Property managers appear to be making it through the Great Recession and are seeing improvement in the market from their perspective. In fact, seven out of 10 property managers said their rental properties have no vacancies, an increase of almost 17 percent from a year ago. Only 39 percent of respondents said they’re having difficulty finding residents in today’s economic climate. Additionally, more than 3 out of 4 respondents (76 percent) said rental prices have either remained the same or increased since last year. Continue reading “Rental housing market weathering storm; more tenants former homeowners

Report shows mortgage delinquency ‘Roll Rates’ peaked in summer of 2009; Sign that worst is over?

Dennis Norman St Louis

Dennis Norman

Finally, some more good news about the housing market! TransUnion released a study of mortgage delinquency “roll rates” (when delinquent borrowers move to a more delinquent status, say from 30 days late to 60 days late, then 90 and so on) which showed that mortgage delinquency roll rates peaked in the summer of 2009. According to the study, approximately 24.4 percent of consumers who were 30 days past due on their mortgage payments in June 2009 became 60 days past due in July 2009 and nearly 37.6 percent of consumers 60 days delinquent on their mortgage payments becamse 90 days late in the same time. Continue reading “Report shows mortgage delinquency ‘Roll Rates’ peaked in summer of 2009; Sign that worst is over?

Mortgage Delinquencies Fall for Second Consecutive Quarter

Dennis Norman St Louis

Dennis Norman

For some time now I’ve been saying the precursor to the housing market recovering is for the mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates to fall from the present, near-record levels, down to closer to historical norms. The current mortgage loan delinquency report from TransUnion shows that, for the second consecutive quarter, things are headed the right direction. Granted the decline in loans that are 60 or more days past due declined only 1.48 percent to 6.67 percent but at least it is going the right diretion. The loan delinquency rate for the 2nd quarter of 6.67 percent is still an increase of 14.8 percent from a year ago when the delinquency rate was 5.81 percent. Continue reading “Mortgage Delinquencies Fall for Second Consecutive Quarter

Mortgage Delinquencies Fall in 1st Quarter; First Decline Since 2006

Dennis Norman

Consistent with the report on mortgage delinquencies from LPS that I wrote about last week, today TransUnion released it’s report on mortgage delinquencies showing they fell 1.74 percent in the first quarter of this year, which is the first quarterly decline since 2006. This is good news, however, not to rain on the parade, but we do need to remember that the 4th quarter of 2009 had a record-setting mortgage delinquency rate so to have the rate for the following quarter drop simply means, if you want to do the glass half-empty thing, this quarter didn’t set another all-time record for mortgage delinquencies.TransUnion Logo

After steadily increasing for 12 consecutive quarters, it is a welcomed relief to see the rate finally decrease to 6.77 percent (for borrowers that are 60+ days past due). This rate is still 30 percent higher than it was a year ago when it was at 5.22 percent.

Fairly consistent with the LPS report from last week, the trends reflected in this report are encouraging; while the ratio of borrowers that are 90 or more days delinquent increased for the quarter, the increases were the smallest since the fourth quarter of 2007.

Other highlights from the report:

  • Nevada continues to have the highest mortgage delinquency rate at (15.98 percent)followed by Florida (14.65 percent)
  • The lowest mortgage delinquency rates continued to be found in North Dakota (1.76 percent), South Dakota (2.44 percent) and Nebraska (2.68 percent)
  • Seventeen states showed increases in delinquency from the previous quarter with Alaska (+11.3 percent), New Hampshire (+6.3 percent) and Hawaii (+4.8 percent) leading the pack.
  • The average national mortgage debt per borrower decreased (0.47 percent) to $192,774 from the previous quarter’s $193,690. On a year-over-year basis, the first quarter 2010 average represents a 1.39 percent decrease over the first quarter 2009 average mortgage debt per borrower level of $195,500.

“The fall in mortgage delinquency is indeed good news for the consumer, the mortgage industry, and the current economic recovery,” said FJ Guarrera, vice president in TransUnion’s financial services business unit. “The February rise in the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index and the recent year-over-year increases in median existing home prices reflect the uptick in housing demand, despite the downward pressure exerted by the continual influx of foreclosures. With prices beginning to rise, increasing consumer confidence and positive trends in the equity markets, home owners who are currently upside down on their mortgages may be less inclined to join the ranks of defaulters, which have been growing in number since the summer of 2008.

“However, part of the first quarter demand for new homes was fueled by the First-Time Homebuyer Credit, which was extended to April 30, along with the provision allowing some current home owners to also qualify. Once this runs out, we could see some impact on mortgage demand and therefore home prices — all other things remaining equal. Finally, the dip in mortgage delinquencies is influenced in part by seasonal factors during the tax season, as many homeowners reap the benefits of real estate deductions — tax savings that can be used to keep current on existing mortgage obligations.”

Forecast

“Based on revised economic assumptions, which are now more optimistic than before, TransUnion believes that the 60-day mortgage delinquency rate will likely continue to drop in 2010, possibly to as low as 6.3 percent. Note that this forecast is dependent upon economic conditions, and may change if there are unanticipated shocks to the economy affecting the recovery in the housing market,” said Guarrera.

With regard to regional forecasts, Florida is anticipated to experience the highest mortgage delinquency rate by the end of 2010, reaching as high as 18.2 percent. North Dakota is still expected to continue to exhibit the lowest mortgage delinquency by year-end with a rate of 1.7 percent.

transunion-mortgage-delinquencies-1st-quarter-2010

Mortgage Delinquencies Jump Over 10 Percent

Dennis Norman

Deceleration in Rise of Mortgage Delinquencies Short Lived

Back in July, 2009 when speaking in North Carolina President Barack Obama announced “we may be seeing the beginning of the end of the recession“. My thoughts then were that was very optimistic and I didn’t agree (for whatever that is worth). Since then some economists have announced the recession is officially over. Technically based upon a few bits of data the recession may be over, but for us real people that are actually living and functioning in this economy I don’t think it is over; at least not for the one market I know best, the housing market.

TransUnion LogoToday, TransUnion had more sobering news for the real estate market; the mortgage loan delinquency rate (the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days past due) increased for the 12th straight quarter, hitting an all-time national average high of 6.89 percent for the fourth quarter of 2009. The fourth quarter marks the first time the mortgage delinquency rate increase did not decelaerate after doing so in the three prior quarters.

Highlights from the fourth quarter report:

  • Mortgage delinquency rates continued to be highest in Nevada (16.19 percent) and Florida (14.93 percent)
  • Mortgage delinquency rates were lowest in North Dakota (1.84 percent), South Dakota (2.46 percent) and Alaska (2.84 percent)
  • Areas with the greatest growth in delinquency rates from the previous quarter were the District of Columbia (+20.2 percent), Louisiana (+17.7 percent) and Delaware (+14.8 percent).
  • No state showed in a decrease in mortgage delinquency rates from third quarter.
  • Average national mortgage debt per borrower increased (0.29 percent) to $193,690 from $193,121 in 3rd quarter.
  • The area with the highest average mortgage debt per borrower was the District of Columbia at $372,869, followed by California at $352,688 and Hawaii at $317,599.
  • The lowest average mortgage debt per borrower was in West Virginia at $99,028.

The Forecast for 2010 is not pretty

TransUnion is forecasting the 60-day mortgage delinquency rate to “peak between 7.5 and 8 percent over the course of 2010.” So we could be looking at an increase of anywhere from 8.8 percent to 16 percent in mortgage delinquencies from the record level they hit in the 4th quarter of 2009.

Ugh…I’m glad the recession is over, think how bad it would be if it wasn’t.

60 day mortgage delinquency chart

Source: TransUnion