Why I’m Bullish On Real Estate For 2020

As you may have noticed, I’ve been pretty optimistic about the outlook for the real estate market this year however, that is not always the case as I call it like I see it.  The reason for my optimism is based upon what a true data geek like myself would base it upon, data!  So, what’s the data that has me believing 2020 will be a good year for the housing market in St Louis and beyond?  Several things:

  • As I have been reporting here for the past couple of years now, mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates have continued to decline which show the strength of the economy as a whole as well as the housing industry.
  • As the US Economic Indicators charts below show, since peaking around 2010, the unemployment rate, 30-year mortgage rate and mortgage delinquency rates have all steadily declines to either record lows or at least the lowest rate in recent history.
  • As the St Louis unemployment, home prices and rent chart below shows, unemployment in St Louis has fallen to the lowest level in decades and the relationship between home prices and rents show home prices lagging behind rents indicating that we’ll likely see continued, good housing appreciation rates.
  • As the 30-year fixed rate mortgage chart below shows, mortgage rates are at near record low rates giving buyers much more buying power.  In my market update video I shared here a day or two ago I illustrate just how much more buying power this translates into.
  • As I reported last week, St Louis home sales last year managed to top the prior year slightly, in spite of the low-inventory market we have been stuck in.  This shows the demand that is out there.
  • As I reported earlier this week, the home sales trend for 2020 in St Louis is in positive territory has well.

Increasing Unemployment and lack of population growth in St. Louis hurts the housing market

Dennis Norman

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has issued their report on St. Louis Housing Market condition as of second quarter of this year.  The report from HUD labels the St. Louis area as a “hub for shipping and transportation” and a “center for manufacturing and biomedical sciences.”  Among the “positives” for St. Louis, HUD identifies that St. Louis is the home to several institutes of higher learning, including St. Louis University and Washington University which, between the two, have an estimated annual economic impact on the region of nearly $3 billion. Continue reading “Increasing Unemployment and lack of population growth in St. Louis hurts the housing market