For the 12-month period ended February 28, 2021, there were 29,402 homes sold in the St Louis 5-County core market. As the 15-year chart below (available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®) shows, this is the highest 12-month sales period in more than 15 years! Going back to 2006, a historic banner year for real estate, we find that the 12-month period ended March 31, 2006, came in close at 28,797 homes sold, but that’s a little over 2% below our most recent 12-month period.
But, can St Louis home sales keep up this pace?
Having a record-setting period for home sales is great but, practically speaking, it’s hard to sustain a record level for long so typically sales would ease after a record period and settle into a “norm”. Having been in this business for 40 years, I’ve seen many of these periods and the $64 question is always the same. How long can it last? I’m not going to even pretend I have that answer as there are too many variables including the continued impact of the pandemic on the economy and life in general, rising oil and gas prices, rising government debt, and uncertainty about the economy to name just a few. Oh, and did I mention the lack of inventory? It’s hard to maintain record sales levels when there are not enough products to sell.
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So, while I’m not going to prophesize I do have some market data to share that may give us a peek into the future. Down below the chart are two tables that contain data to help give us a sense of where the St Louis residential real estate market is headed. The first table shows the number of “new” sales on listings for the past 4 weeks compare with a year ago. This is the best leading indicator we produce as it gives us an idea of where the market is headed, rather than where it has been as normal “sold” data does. As the table shows for each of the 4 weeks reviewed, new contracts were down from the same period last year and all but one week it is down double digits. Overall, for the 4-week period, new sales are down nearly 8% from the same period a year ago. The second table shows pending home sales for February of this year were down about 5.5% from last year. Pending home sales data is not as telling of the future as our new contracts data, as these are sales that make have taken place anywhere from a day ago to several weeks ago, but the majority of the pending sales will become closed sales in the next 30 days so they are a good indicator.
Based upon the above data, I’m pretty confident that even though it appears the pace may be slowing and I’m confident March won’t have as many sales as it did last year, the 12-month sales may set another record in March or, at a minimum be close. After that things may change…check back here for more on that.
St Louis 12 Month Home Sales for Last 15 Years
(click on chart for live, current chart)
New Residential Sales Contracts – St Louis 5-County Core
Pending Home Sales – St Louis 5-County Core
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