By Dennis Norman, on July 7th, 2015 The median price of homes sold in St Louis (the 5-county core market) this year thus far has been $169,000, an increase of 5.7 percent from when the market peaked in 2006 at $159,900. While the peak of the housing bubble is considered to be 2006, as the chart below shows, St Louis home prices actually peaked in 2007 at $162,000 but, in either event, St Louis home prices have regained what was lost when the housing bubble burst and then some.
This is in contrast to what is happening at the national level with regard to home prices as evidenced by comments made by two of the top economists as teh National Association of Real Estate Editors (NAREE) conference last week. At the conference, Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said he “anticipates home prices will return to their 2006 peak sometime this year” and Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for Corelogic (and formerly for Freddie Mac) predicted home prices nationally would not return to 2006 levels until the end of 2017.
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Continue reading “St Louis Area Home Prices Have Surpassed 2006 Peak Prices“
By Dennis Norman, on June 30th, 2014 Pending homes sales increased in May, up 6.1 percent from April, however was still 5.2 percent below the period a year ago, according to the report just released today from the National Association of REALTORS (NAR).
Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for NAR, said he expects home sales to continue improving throughout the balance of the year however still expects 2014 to see fewer home sales than 2013 due to the “ sluggish first quarter”.
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By Dennis Norman, on June 10th, 2014 New home construction is not keeping up with demand in most of the U.S. and could even lead to “persistent housing shortages and affordability issues unless housing starts increase to match up with local job creation”, according to a newly released analysis by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).
Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, discussed in the report the relationship between new jobs and increased demand for housing saying “Historically, there’s one new home construction for every one-and-a-half new jobs,”. Yun goes on to say “Our analysis found that a majority of states are constructing too few homes in relation to local job market conditions. This lack of construction has hamstrung supply and slowed home sales.”
Missouri is not one of the states the NAR report cites as having the biggest disparity between job creation and new homes, instead listing Florida, Utah, California, Montana and Indiana as the states where this issue is most prevalent, but I think we are going to see this, on a reduced scale, in St Louis as well.
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By Dennis Norman, on October 9th, 2013  Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS (NAR), cautioned today that, given the fact the U.S. Government spends one dollar for every 75 -80 cents it takes in, if the debt ceiling isn’t raised, the government will have to decide where to cut its spending. Should the government choose not to pay its interest obligations, “we can expect interest rates on Treasury bonds to rise…and if that happens, mortgage rates will rise, because mortgage rates follow Treasury rates.”
Yun went on to say that if mortgage interest rates do rise we can expect home sales to drop by around 350,000 to 450,000 homes per year for every 1 percent increase in mortgage interest rates.
My advice to anyone in the market to buy a home is to buy sooner than later and, if possible, lock in your mortgage interest rate now before rates go up (think you can’t lock in your rate until after you have found a home? Wrong, contact me and I’ll tell you how).
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By Dennis Norman, on March 27th, 2013  Barely over 3 month supply of homes for sale in St Louis
Home sales in the U.S. fell slightly in February from the month before, according to the National Association of REALTORS’ pending home sales index. The index slid to 104.8* in February from 105.2 in January however was still 8.4 percent higher than a year ago and at the second highest level in nearly three-year. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR, said “limited inventory is holding back the market in many areas” and that “only new home construction can genuinely help relieve the inventory shortage…”
As the chart below shows, the number of homes for sale in St Louis has declined almost 9 percent (8.9) in the past year, from 14,596 homes for sale in St Louis (St Louis MSA) in February 2012 to 13,260 homes for sale in St Louis in February 2013. During the same period the absorption rate in St Louis (homes sold or taken off the market) has increased slightly from 4,322 homes in February 2012 to 4,370 homes in February 2013. At the current absorption rate there is just over a three-month supply of homes for sale in St Louis. So, if you have thought about selling, now may be the time! For current home prices and market conditions in your area, Click Here. Continue reading “Inventory of Homes For Sale In St Louis Down Over 8 Percent“
By Robert Fishel, on December 6th, 2012  According to Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, home prices nationally are up 11.1% in October compared to this point last year. The number of homes available for sale nationally fell reducing the available supply to a level below that of one year ago. The result is tighter supply of homes helping boost the national median existing-home price level to $178,600 in October; price increases have helped home owners regain equity lost during the housing crisis.
 Continue reading “Home prices on the rise; St Louis Mortgage Interest Rate Update“
By Dennis Norman, on November 9th, 2012  Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), while speaking at the NAR convention in Orlando gave a pretty optimistic outlook for the housing market. Yun said he expects to see home prices rise cumulatively 15 percent over the next three years, home sales increase over 20 percent during the same period and new home sales to increase over 90 percent from 2011 to the beginning of 2014. Yun did add a caveat to his optimism saying these things assumed there would be no further limitations on the availability of mortgage credit or a “fiscal cliff”. At this point I don’t know that I would be betting against a fiscal cliff, so I guess we will just have to wait and see.
By Dennis Norman, on September 7th, 2012  This week the National Association of REALTORS (NAR) published a report which showed selling a home was taking less time with the median time a home for sale dropping in July to 69 days, down over 29 percent from a year ago when the median time on the market was 98 days. St. Louis homes are taking less time to sell as well and, as you can see from the tables below I prepared, many St Louis areas have a lower median time on the market for homes for sale than the national median. The inventory of St. Louis homes for sale is dropping as well…does this impact price? Read on.. Continue reading “St. Louis homes taking less time to sell; inventory low in many areas“
By Dennis Norman, on July 26th, 2012  The National Association of REALTORS released its Pending Home Sales Index for June today showing a decrease of 1.4 percent in the index from the month before (seasonally adjusted) and a 9.5 percent increase from a year ago. However, here in the Midwest, the numbers are better with pending home sales decreasing just 0.4 percent from May, the smallest decrease for the month of all the regions, and Midwest pending home sales in June increased 17.3 percent from a year ago, which is the highest year-over-year increase of all regions in the U.S.
 Continue reading “U.S. Home Sales Slip In June; Midwest outperforms the rest of the country“
By Dennis Norman, on July 20th, 2012 Yesterday’s existing home sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® shows existing home sales in June were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.37 million units which is a decrease of 5.4 percent from the month before, and a 4.5 percent increase from the year before and is at the lowest level since October 2011. Continue reading “Home sales lose steam in June“
By Dennis Norman, on June 27th, 2012 The National Association of REALTORS released it’s Pending Home Sales Index for May today showing an increase of 5.9 percent in the index from the month before (seasonally adjusted), a 13.3 percent increase from a year ago and is now at the highest level it’s been since April 2010.
Highlights from the report for May, 2012:
- The pending home sales index (seasonally adjusted) was 101.1 (the index is based upon 100.0 being equal to the average level of sales activity in 2001 which we could call the last “normal” year) which is a 5.9 percent increase from the month before and a 123.3 percent increase from a year ago.
Continue reading “Home sales increase in May; 2012 on track to see 9 to 10 percent more sales than 2011“
By Dennis Norman, on June 22nd, 2012 Yesterday’s existing home sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® shows existing home sales in May were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.55 million units which is a decrease of 1.5 percent from the month before, however, here in the Midwest we bucked the trend coming in with home sales at an annual rate of 1.04 million units, up 1.0 percent from the month before. The Midwest was the only region in May that saw an increase in the rate of home sales in May from the month before, all regions saw an increase from a year ago however. Home prices in the Midwest didn’t fare as well as the rest of the country however, coming in at 147,700 which is an increase of 6.4 percent from a year ago, less than the 7.9 percent increase seen at the national level, however the month over month increase of 5.6 percent in the Midwest did top the 5.1 percent month over month increase at the national level. Continue reading “Midwest is only region with increased home sales in May“
By Dennis Norman, on May 22nd, 2012 Today’s existing home sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® shows existing home sales in April were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.62 million units which is a increase of 3.4 percent from the month before and an increase of 10.0 percent from a year ago. The actual number of homes sold in April was 400,000 which is an increase of 11.1 percent from the month before and an increase of 6.7 percent from a year ago when there were 375,000 homes sold. Continue reading “Existing home sales and prices increase in April; Housing recovery is underway“
By Dennis Norman, on May 3rd, 2012 Someone much smarter than I once told me if I wait for the bottom of the market before I buy (or invest) then I will always miss the bottom because we won’t know what the bottom was until it has passed and we are looking back. Some reading this may reply “duh”, but to me it was rather profound at the time and showed me a way of looking at things a little different. So, with this in mind, I’ll attempt to answer the question I’m most frequently asked; “has the housing market hit bottom yet?”. Continue reading “Have St Louis home prices hit bottom yet?“
By Dennis Norman, on April 26th, 2012 The National Association of REALTORS released it’s Pending Home Sales Index for March today showing an increase of 4.1 percent in the index from the month before (seasonally adjusted), and an 12.8 percent increase from a year ago and is now at the highest level it’s been since April 2010.
Highlights from the report for March, 2012:
- The pending home sales index (seasonally adjusted) was 101.4 (the index is based upon 100.0 being equal to the average level of sales activity in 2001 which we could call the last “normal” year) which is a 4.1 percent increase from the month before and an 12.8 percent increase from a year ago.
Continue reading “Home sales increase in March; 2012 to be the year of recovery for housing“
By Dennis Norman, on March 26th, 2012 The National Association of REALTORS released it’s Pending Home Sales Index for February today showing home sales in the Midwest increased 6.5 percent from the month before and were up 19.0 percent from a year ago. This is in sharp contrast to home sales on a national level which saw a slight decrease of 0.5 percent in the index from the month before (seasonally adjusted), and an 9.2 percent increase from a year ago. Continue reading “Home sales in Midwest up 6.5 percent in February while down in all other regions“
By Dennis Norman, on February 27th, 2012 The National Association of REALTORS released it’s Pending Home Sales Index for January today showing an increase of 2.0 percent in the index from the month before (seasonally adjusted), and an 8.0 percent increase from a year ago. This marks the highest level the pending home sales index has been at since April 2010 when it hit 111.3 as a result of buyers racing to buy before the homebuyer tax credit expired. Continue reading “Pending home sales index hits highest level since April 2010“
By Dennis Norman, on December 29th, 2011
 - Dennis Norman
The National Association of REALTORS Pending Home Sales Index for November shows an increase of 7.3 percent in the index from the month before (seasonally adjusted), and a 5.9 percent increase from a year ago. This is the second consecutive month that the index has increased and marks the highest level the index has achieved since April 2010 when it was at 111.5.
Continue reading “Home sales rise in November; second consecutive month of increases“
By Dennis Norman, on December 1st, 2011
- Dennis Norman
The National Association of REALTORS Pending Home Sales Index for October shows an increase of 10.4 percent in the index from the month before (seasonally adjusted), and a 9.2 percent increase from a year ago. This is the first time in four months that the index has increased and marks the highest level the index has achieved since April 2010 when it was at 110.9.
Continue reading “Home sales jump in October to highest level in 18 months“
By Dennis Norman, on October 27th, 2011
- Dennis Norman
The National Association of REALTORS Pending Home Sales Index for September shows a decrease of 4.6 percent in the index from the month before (seasonally adjusted), and a 6.4 percent increase from a year ago. This is the third consecutive month the index has decreased from the month before and, and the year over year numbers continue to show decline in the rate of improvement from last year. Continue reading “Home sales fall in September; third consecutive month of decline“
By Dennis Norman, on September 29th, 2011
- Dennis Norman
The National Association of REALTORS Pending Home Sales Index for August shows a decrease of 1.2 percent in the index from the month before (seasonally adjusted), and a 7.7 percent increase from a year ago. This is the second consecutive month the index has decreased from the month before and, while the year over year numbers are still better, this month’s year over year increase was only half of what last months was. Continue reading “Home sales decline in August; second consecutive month of declines“
By Dennis Norman, on September 21st, 2011 St. Louis home sales in August were up 20.7 percent from a year ago according to today’s home sales for major metropolitan report from the National Association of REALTORS®. St. Louis’ increase in home sales topped the increase nationally which was 18.6 percent from a year ago. St. Louis home pricesin August came in at a median of $132,700, down 1.6 percent from a year ago. Nationally, median home prices were down 5.1 percent from a year ago.
For More St. Louis Market Data – Click Here Continue reading “Existing home sales on the rise in August; on pace to beat last year“
By Dennis Norman, on August 29th, 2011
- Dennis Norman
The National Association of REALTORS Pending Home Sales Index for July shows, after two consecutive months of increases, a decrease of 1.3 percent in the index from the month before (seasonally adjusted), and a 14.4 percent increase from a year ago (last month’s index was up 19.8 percent from the year before). Continue reading “Home sales activity in July down from month before; still better than last year“
By Dennis Norman, on August 18th, 2011 Today’s existing home sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® shows existing home sales in July were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.67 million units which is a decrease of 3.5 percent from the month before, an increase of 21.0 percent from a year ago and is the lowest rate of home sales since November 2010 when it was 4.64 million. Continue reading “Existing home sales drop in July; Actual 2011 home sales through July down 5 percent from same time last year“
By Dennis Norman, on August 15th, 2011  Last week, The Washington Post published an article by Kenneth Harney which said “if you take mortgage interest tax deductions, the next 100 days could have significant financial implications for you, thanks to Congress’s new federal debt ceiling plan……the compromise legislation created an unusual mechanism — an evenly split, 12-member bipartisan supercommittee — that could call for major cutbacks on real estate write-offs by Thanksgiving.”
The question is, would doing away with the mortgage interest deduction put the final nail in the coffin for the housing industry? Read on to hear two opposing opinions on the topic. Continue reading “Does the Mortgage Interest Deduction Help The Real Estate Market?“
By Dennis Norman, on July 29th, 2011
- Dennis Norman
The National Association of REALTORS Pending Home Sales Index for June shows an increase of 2.4 percent in the index from the month before (seasonally adjusted), and a whopping 19.8 percent increase from a year ago. This is the second month in a row that the index increased on a year-over-year basis. Continue reading “Pending home sales increase in June; 2nd consecutive month pending home sales on the rise“
By Dennis Norman, on July 20th, 2011 Today’s existing home sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® shows existing home sales in June were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.77 million units which is a decrease of 0.8 percent from the month before, a decrease of 8.8 percent from a year ago and is the lowest rate of home sales since November 2010 when it was 4.64 million. Continue reading “Existing home sales drop in June; ‘Actual’ home sales highest in 12 months“
By Dennis Norman, on June 21st, 2011 Today’s existing home sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® shows existing home sales in May were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.81 million units which is a decrease of 3.8 percent from the month before and is a decrease of 15.3 percent from a year ago and is the lowest rate of home sales since November 2010 when it was 4.64 million. Continue reading “US Existing home sales in May fall to lowest level this year; St. Louis has largest decrease for third consecutive month“
By Dennis Norman, on May 19th, 2011
St. Louis existing-home sales in April were down 30.1 percent from a year ago, after the prior month’s sales were down 20.3 percent from the year prior. This disturbing trend points to a decrease in the number of home sales in St. Louis in 2011 from 2010, even though industry experts are predicting an increase in U.S. existing home sales this year over last. Continue reading “St. Louis Home Sales Down Over 30 percent in April; Worst decline of 20 major metros“
By Dennis Norman, on May 13th, 2011 Speaking yesterday at a forum at a meeting of the National Association of REALTORS (NAR), several industry “experts” had reasonably optimistic opinions of the housing market and expect home sales to continue on an uptrend through 2012.
Among the experts at the forum was, of course, Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for NAR, who said he felt existing home sales would improve gradually, but unevenly. “If we just hold at the first-quarter sales pace of 5.1 million (home sales), sales this year would rise 4 percent, but the remainder of the year looks better,” Yun said. “We expect 5.3 million existing-home sales this year, up from 4.9 million in 2010, with additional gains in 2012 to about 5.6 million — that’s a sustainable level given the size of our population.” Continue reading “Housing and Economic Forecasts Point to Rising Activity and Flat Home Prices“
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