The SLT Market Chart below, available exclusively from MORE, REALTORS®, shows a full monthly history of St. Louis MSA home sales since 1999, and if you’re a data geek (like me) or just trying to get a real read on where this market is going, this chart is gold.
Here’s what stands out immediately: 2021 was the peak, no debate. In September 2021, the 12-month rolling total for home sales in the St. Louis metro hit 48,633 homes, an all-time high. For the calendar year 2021, sales totaled 48,328. Nothing before or after even comes close.
Since then, we’ve seen a slow, steady retreat. As of the latest data (December 2025), the 12-month sales total has dropped to 34,830. That’s down about 29% from the peak. The good news? That decline has clearly started to level off. For the past several months, the sales trend has been hovering around the 34,000–35,000 range, suggesting the free fall has ended and we’ve likely found a floor.
This isn’t just a gut feeling. We’ve seen this before…post-2007 crash (housing bubble), post-2010 tax credit spike, and the chart tells the story. When the market hits bottom, it doesn’t bounce right back. It settles in. That’s what’s happening now.
And it makes sense. Interest rates remain elevated compared to the recent past, inventory is tight, and homebuilders have pulled back. In 2023, we saw the lowest level of new single-family permits issued in 9 years. So even with softer demand, supply is still constrained.
Given all of this, here’s my forecast for 2026: I don’t expect a surge, but I do expect a modest recovery. We could see total home sales in the St. Louis MSA climb back to the 36,000 – 37,000 range for the year. That would still be well below the 2021 high, but a meaningful improvement over where we are now.
For buyers, this may be the most balanced market we’ve had in years. For sellers, it’s a reminder that pricing and preparation matter again. And for agents, it’s a signal that skill, experience and market knowledge are back in the driver’s seat. (can I get an Amen?)
