By Dennis Norman, on April 24th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Century 21 Real Estate LLC announced the results of its First-Time Home Buyers and Sellers Survey, which captured and compared the opinions of prospective home buyers and sellers who either purchased or sold their first home within the past year or are planning to buy or sell their first home within the next year.
More than 80 percent of first-time home buyers and sellers feel the current housing market is more affordable today than this time last year, despite the fact that 40 percent of all respondents are more worried about the economy compared to this Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 23rd, 2010 Dennis Norman
The U.S. Department of Commerce released a report showing the sale of New Homes in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 411,000, a 26.9 percent increase from the revised February rate of 324,000 and is 23.8 percent above a year ago. The inventory of new homes (seasonally adjusted) at the end of March is 6.7 months a huge decline from February’s 9.2 month supply.
My Mantra
As has been my long-running mantra, I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers and “rate” of sales (nor does Standard & Poors, publisher of the Case/Shiller Index, now Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 22nd, 2010 Dennis Norman
According to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing home sales in the US in March increased 6.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.35 million units in March from a revised level of 5.01 million units in February, and increased 16.1 percent from a year ago when the rate was 4.61 million units (seasonally adjusted).
St. Louis Shows Strong Against Other Metros –
NAR publishes existing home sales for 20 major metropolitan areas of the U.S. which showed the St. Louis Real Estate Market in a pretty positive light. St. Louis Continue Reading →
By Robert Fishel, on April 21st, 2010
First-time homebuyers made up a record high share of sales in March, according to the latest Campbell Surveys poll of more than 1,500 real estate agents nationwide; First-time homebuyers accounted for 48.2% of all home purchases. The March uptick comes ahead of the extended tax credit deadline.
Who Qualifies-
First Time Home Buyer $8,000 Tax Credit The primary home buyer and/or spouse may not have owned a home in the previous three (3) years to qualify. Buyers cannot be claimed as a dependent by another taxpayer or be under the age of 18. Repeat Home Buyer $6,500 Tax Credit Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 20th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Bear with me, I’m really not an ego-maniac, it’s just so infrequently that anyone of any real authority, or with “PhD” behind their name, agrees with me, so when it does happen I have to sound the horns and bask in the glory while it lasts!
If you have read any of my articles on any blogs about home sales and new home starts you are well aware of my usual rant about, and distrust of, “seasonally-adjusted” numbers. Up until today I really just thought this was my simple-minded way of looking at things and, even Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 20th, 2010 Dennis Norman
There’s plenty of talk today about “going green”, being “environmentally friendly”and “sustainable living”. All around us we see people incorporating things into their lives consistent with the focus of these terms including: using recyclable bags, buying hybrid cars, using mass transportation, buying organic products, etc.
For those of us that threw out their Birkenstocks years ago (or don’t have a clue what they are), don’t shop at Whole Foods, drive a gas-guzzling SUV and, the big one, ask for our milk to be put in a bag at the grocery store, but still want to do a Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 19th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Housing is stabilizing but excess inventory and shadow supply are hindering recovery according to the April 2010 Economic Outlook released today by Fannie Mae’s Economics & Mortgage Market Analysis Group.
The report projects that new home sales (which are at record lows) will be slow to recover until inventory of existing homes and the foreclosure overhang are worked off. The comments about existing home sales were more optimistic saying key indicators for existing home sales, including pending home sales and purchase applications, are showing good signs of a pickup.
Jobs, a driving force for housing, are Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 17th, 2010 Dennis Norman
This past Thursday Congress passed H.R. 4851 and President Obama signed it into law the same day extending the National Flood Insurance Program, which had expired on March 28th, through May 31, 2010.
The National Association of REALTORS, which lobbied hard for this extension, now says they are working with Congress to get the National Flood Insurance Program reauthorized before it expires again on May 31st.
By Dennis Norman, on April 16th, 2010
The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued a their report on New Residential Construction for March 2010 showing an increase in building permits and a decrease in new home starts from February.
The report shows the following:
Building permits issued for single-family residences in March were at an annual rate of 543,000 which is 5.6 percent above the revised February rate of 514,000 and an increase of 50.8 percent from a year ago when the rate was 360,000. Housing starts for single-family residences in March were at an annual rate of 531,000 Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 15th, 2010
Dennis Norman
As readers know, I have been somewhat critical of the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) which is part of the Obama administrations’ Making Home Affordable Program for a few reasons, one is I believe it is just a temporary “band-aid” and not a cure for the problem and two, it does not appear the program is going to help near as many people as the Obama administration initially said it would. Yesterday a report was issued that shows there is progress being made and, through the end of March, a total of 230,000 homeowners Continue Reading →
By Robert Fishel, on April 14th, 2010
First-time home buyers comprised an unprecedented 47 percent of the market last year according to a recently published report by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). NAR’s report, 2009 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, points to the federal tax credit and the historic affordability of housing as the most likely reasons first-time buyers scored so high in sales. According to NAR, housing economists predict that “2010 will be an even bigger year for first-timers.” Who are these people, and what do they want? Most are married – Forty-nine percent are a married couple. Single females comprise a quarter Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 13th, 2010 Dennis Norman
The month of March brought us some pretty great weather and also helped bring some home buyers out into the market. The homebuyer tax credits that are set to expire at the end of April probably played a role as well.
As you can see from the chart below, March brought sales to the metro area, but as the average prices of homes sold show, it is definitely the lower end, or first-time homebuyer, market that is seeing the bulk of the activity. In most of the counties the average price of the homes sold in March Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 12th, 2010 Dennis Norman
A report published by Lender Processing Services (LPS) analyzing homeowner’s performance on their mortgages as of February 2010 has some data that is encouraging but that data is overshadowed by data that shows the problems int he U.S. housing market are far from over.
Let’s start with the good news…
Delinquencies on home mortgages declined in February by 1.45 percent from January and the percentage of loans that were 90 days late or more in February were at the lowest rate in 17 months. The decline in home loans that were 90+ days delinquent from December Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 9th, 2010 Dennis Norman
I thought I would end the week by giving everyone something to dwell on and contemplate over the weekend. Actually, I set out this morning to do a post about the National Association of REALTORS(R) (NAR) Housing Affordability Index for February which was recently published. As I was reviewing the data in the report I started giving “affordability” a lot of thought, went down a few rabbit trails, did a few hours of research and ended up with an analysis of home affordability.
The NAR Report:
Since this was the initial topic I thought I should Continue Reading →
By Robert Fishel, on April 7th, 2010
Interesting results from Fannie Mae National Housing Survey
Fannie Mae released results of the Fannie Mae National Housing Survey, a comprehensive research project that surveyed more than 3,000 consumers to assess their confidence in homeownership as an investment, the current state of their household finances, their views on the U.S. housing finance system, and their overall confidence in the economy.
It appears that Americans continue to value homeownership and think about their homes in ways that go much deeper than the financial investment. The survey also found that the public strongly believes in the importance of upholding the Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 6th, 2010 Dennis Norman
At the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 16th it was suggested that “economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in early 2010″. Unfortunately, when it came to the housing market, the news was not as good and it was noted that “housing activity remained flat and the nonresidential construction section weakened further.” The staff went on to say that activity in the housing sector appears to “have flattened out in recent months” and that “sales of both new and existing homes have turned down, while starts of single-family homes were about unchanged despite the substantial Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 5th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Today the National Association of REALTORS released it’s February Pending Home Sales Index showing a increase of 8.2 percent (seasonally adjusted) in the index for the U.S. from January and a 17.3 percent increase from last year. The Midwsest region had the best results with February home sales increasing 21.8 percent from January.
Here in St. Louis, home sales in February increased at an even greater rate. The City of St. Louis had the largest 1-month increase at 62.6 percent, followed by Jefferson County with an increase in pending sales of 34.1 percent, St. Charles County Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on April 1st, 2010 Dennis Norman
The Treasury Department Plans to Spend $50 Billion on HAMP…Is it Going to “help keep “3 to 4 million Americans in their homes” as Promised Though?
Last week Herbert M. Allison, Assistant Secretary for Financial Stability for the U.S. Department of the Treasury, testified before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform as to “Is the Home Affordable Modification Program Preserving Homeownership?”.
Early in his testimony Allison states that, at the time the HAMP program was announced, President Obama said the program would “enable as many as 3 to 4 million homeowners to modify Continue Reading →
By Robert Fishel, on March 31st, 2010 NEW FHA Policies Go Into Effect April 5th
Applications for FHA-guaranteed mortgages exceeded an annual rate of 3 million in October; nearly triple the level in 2007. In 2006, when subprime and other Wall Street programs were at full speed, the annual rate for applications was less than 600,000. As a result the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Commissioner David Stevens recently announced a set of policy changes to strengthen the FHA’s capital reserves. The changes announced are the latest in a series of changes Stevens has enacted in order to better position the FHA to manage its risk while continuing Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on March 30th, 2010
Dennis Norman
Annual Rates of Decline In Home Prices Improving
This morning the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for January was released showing that home prices in their 10 city and 20 city composite indexes decreased from December, the 10-city index was down 0.2 percent and the 20-city index down 0.4 percent. The 10-city January index was exactly even with January 2009, and the 20-city January index was down 0.7 percent from a year ago. The indexes include the major metropolition areas in the U.S. (details for metros included are in chart that follows).
All 20 metro areas and Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on March 29th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Last week HUD announced changes to FHA home loan programs to provide refinancing options to homeowners who owe more than their home is worth. Under FHA’s new plan, existing underwater homeowners can refinance their existing non-FHA loan into a FHA loan as long as they are current on their loan and their current lender reduces their total mortgage debt by at least 10 percent of the loan amount.
The total mortgage amount for the borrower after refinancing cannot be greater than 115 percent of the current value of the home, bring the loan amount for Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on March 26th, 2010 Dennis Norman
Back in early December I did a post about a new program that was announced in November, the Home Affordable Foreclosures Alternative (HAFA) Program which is scheduled to go into effect April 5, 2010. There was recently supplemental documentation published as well as FAQ’s about the program and I have to admit, it seems to me the government is getting it right with this program.
THE HAFA PROGRAM:
The Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives Program provides financial incentives to loan servicers as well as borrowers who do a short-sale or a deed-in-lieu to avoid foreclosure on Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on March 25th, 2010 Dennis Norman
The U.S. Department of Commerce released a report showing the sale of New Homes in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 308,000, a 2.2 percent decrease from the revised January rate of 315,000 and is 13.0 percent below a year ago. The inventory of new homes (seasonally adjsuted) at the end of February is 9.2 months a slight increase from January’s inventory of 9.1 months.
My Mantra
As has been my long-running mantra, I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers and “rate” of sales. Why, for one I can’t figure out how in the Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on March 24th, 2010 Dennis Norman
According to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS(R), existing home sales in the US in February decreased 0.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 5.02 million units in February from a revised level of 5.50 million units in January, however this does represent an increase of 7.0 percent from a year ago when the rate was 4.69 million units (seasonally adjusted).
February’s Numbers Show Real Estate is “Local”
Reinforcing the fact that “all real estate is local” the February Existing Home Sales report paints quite a different picture of the housing market depending Continue Reading →
By Robert Fishel, on March 24th, 2010 PLASTIC TAKES PRIORITY.
Consumers are paying more attention to their credit card payments and making sure they are current according to a newly released report from TransUnion. The credit information management company analyzed 27 million anonymous consumer records randomly sampled during the six quarters from 2008 to 2009. Their selection criteria included consumers with at least one credit card and a current mortgage. Consumers who are delinquent on their credit cards and current on their mortgages decreased to 3.6% from 4.1% in the time period of the study. However, during the first quarter of 2008 a “flip” occurred where the Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on March 23rd, 2010 Dennis Norman
UPDATE: March 26, 2010: Pres Obama signed HR 35909 into law on March 23, 2010. Yesterday the House and Senate approved the final version of HR 4872 and it now goes to the President for his signature (this is the bill that “taxes” real estate to pay for health care as I explained below) – end of update
Unless you live in a cave you have probably heard by now that yesterday Congress passed HR 3590, the “Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act”, or to put it more short and to the point, Pres. Obama’s Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on March 22nd, 2010
Dennis Norman
The Federal Reserve announced it will stop purchasing mortgage-backed securities by the end of March.
In November, 2008, the Federal Reserve announced, in an effort to help the housing market, it would purchase mortgage-backed securities. Then, in March, 2009, the Fed increased the total amount of money they would invest in such securities to $1.25 trillion and estimated that they would complete those purchases by the end of first quarter 2010.
The Fed’s action I think certainly added some liquidity and confidence to the ailing housing market and now, that the time has come Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on March 19th, 2010
Dennis Norman
Increased prices on distressed home sales in St Louis are the reason for St Louis’s home price gains.
A report released by First American CoreLogic shows St. Louis metro area home prices, including distressed sales, increased 0.60 percent in January 2010 compared to January, 2009. December 2009’s home price index for St. Louis was up 1.54 percent from the year before. Excluding distressed sales, the January 2010 home price index was actually down 0.55 percent from a year ago, compared with December 2009’s home price index which was up 0.59 percent from the Continue Reading →
By Dennis Norman, on March 18th, 2010 Dennis Norman
According to the Economics and Mortgage Market Analysis report just published by Fannie Mae, the weather was the culprit for the slow-down in home sales at the beginning of this year however, we did not get the boost they were anticipating from the extension of the tax credits. “Unfortunately, despite the high hopes associated with the extended and expanded homebuyer tax credit, housing activity appears to have faced a setback that went beyond the impact of adverse weather conditions. ” On a somewhat positive note, the analysts state they view the housing setback “to be a Continue Reading →
By Robert Fishel, on March 17th, 2010 LAST CALL FOR HOMEBUYER’S TAX CREDITS!
Prospects are scurrying to sell and/or buy homes before next month’s tax credit deadline.” “It’s been absolutely nuts, I have showings galore and contracts are coming in left and right,” commented one real estate agent. To qualify for the credit, buyers must have fully executed sales contracts in place by April 30 and the deal must close by June 30. First-time home buyers are eligible for up to $8,000. Buyers who have owned a home for five consecutive years within the past eight years can get a credit of up to $6,500. Other Continue Reading →
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